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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Contract-Based Compositional Shielding for Safe Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.14130v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safe coordination problems surface in multi-agent reinforcement learning when global safety cannot be enforced by any agent unilaterally: the admissibility of one agent's action may depend on the dynamics of other agents. Decentralised shields can enforce safety at runtime, but purely factorised permissions often exclude optimal team behaviour that is safe only through coordination. We study deterministic safety guarantees for agents trained and deployed under decentralised execution, recovering team-optimal safe behaviour without centralised runtime control. Agents have a shared global specification $\phi$ in the safety fragment of Linear Temporal Logic ($\mathsf{LTL}_{\mathsf{safe}}$ ), and select among tuples of local $\mathsf{LTL}_{\mathsf{safe}}$ obligations whose conjunction implies the global specification $\phi$. Each agent may rely on the other agents' local obligations as assumptions because the whole contract tuple is certified simultaneously and allows projection into local action masks. At learning time, a non-stationary multi-armed bandit chooses among a library of local $\mathsf{LTL}_{\mathsf{safe}}$ obligations to select the tuple that optimises team reward, all without forgoing end-to-end safety. We evaluate the approach across 6 environments and 15 algorithmic variants.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

IB-HFN: Information Bottleneck-Driven SAR-Optical Fusion Network for High-Fidelity Cloud Removal

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-assisted optical cloud removal aims to recover surface information obscured by clouds in optical remote sensing images by exploiting complementary SAR observations. Existing multimodal fusion methods typically rely on direct spatial concatenation and pixel-wise supervision, which can propagate SAR speckle noise into optical reconstruction and lead to over-smoothed results. To address these limitations, we propose an Information Bottleneck-driven High-Fidelity Network (IB-HFN) for SAR-assisted optical cloud removal. IB-HFN employs a dual-stream backbone to preserve modality-specific representations before deep semantic fusion, thereby mitigating premature cross-modal contamination. At the fusion stage, we introduce a Spatial Information Bottleneck Fusion module that compresses SAR features through a channel-wise variational information bottleneck to suppress unstructured speckle noise. In parallel, a local-global gating mechanism predicts clear-sky regions and routes reliable optical details through a Dirac-initialized skip connection, decoupling noise suppression from texture preservation. We further develop a joint optimization strategy that integrates feature-level bottleneck regularization with image-level constraints on reconstruction accuracy, structural consistency, spectral fidelity, and contrastive sharpness. A dynamic weighting schedule balances these objectives to stabilize training and reduce hazy artifacts. Experiments on the SEN12MS-CR dataset under challenging spatio-temporal splits demonstrate that IB-HFN achieves superior structural preservation and spectral fidelity over existing methods.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Neuromorphic Speech Enhancement with Dual-Branch Spiking Neural Networks

arXiv:2606.23761v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spiking neural network (SNN)-based neuromorphic speech enhancement has emerged as a promising paradigm due to its energy efficiency, yet it still underperforms classical artificial neural network (ANN)-based approaches owing to binary activations and the lack of well-designed network architectures. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel dual-branch spiking neural network architecture equipped with a gated spiking unit (GSU), termed GSU-DBNet. Specifically, GSU-DBNet simultaneously models the speech magnitude spectrum and complex spectrum, predicting the corresponding magnitude and complex spectral masks. Meanwhile, a dual-path GSU module is adopted to exploit temporal and frequency information for enhanced spatiotemporal feature representation. Experiments on a popular benchmark dataset show that GSU-DBNet achieves a PESQ score of 3.04 with only 394K parameters, outperforming existing SNN-based methods while using only 4.5%–10.6% of the parameters of representative ANN-based models.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Learning Credal Ensembles via Distributionally Robust Optimization

arXiv:2602.08470v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Credal predictors are models that are aware of epistemic uncertainty and produce a convex set of probabilistic predictions. They offer a principled way to quantify predictive epistemic uncertainty (EU) and have been shown to improve model robustness in various settings. However, most state-of-the-art methods mainly define EU as disagreement caused by random training initializations, which mostly reflects sensitivity to optimization randomness rather than uncertainty from deeper sources. To address this, we define EU as disagreement among models trained with varying relaxations of the i.i.d. assumption between training and test data. Based on this idea, we propose CreDRO, which learns an ensemble of plausible models through distributionally robust optimization. As a result, CreDRO captures EU not only from training randomness but also from meaningful disagreement due to potential distribution shifts between training and test data. Empirical results show that CreDRO consistently outperforms existing credal methods on tasks such as out-of-distribution detection across multiple benchmarks and selective classification in medical applications.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Context-Aware Feature-Fusion for Co-occurring Object Detection in Autonomous Driving

Object detection in autonomous driving requires precise localization and an inherent understanding of the relational context between co-occurring objects. In extremely complex heterogeneous environments rare classes, small-scale objects, and frequently appearing objects are difficult for standard object detection frameworks to handle. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Context-Centric Feature Fusion (CCFF), which utilizes two attention-based modules, Local Context Fusion Module (LCFM) uses the RoI-to-RoI self-attention mechanism to resolve spatial interactions, mainly considering small and partially obscured objects, while Global Context Attention Module (GCAM) converts the co-occurrence of objects priors by pooling top-K RoI features into a global context attention token, avoiding the computational overhead of pixel-level global pooling. This fusion of local and object-centric global features yields contextualized embeddings that enhance classification results and co-occurring objects detection. Our method is evaluated on two datasets, Cityscapes and BDD100K which demonstrate significant improvement on relational consistency, achieving a Category-level Consistency Strategy (CCS) of 0.973 and 0.969, respectively. Furthermore, our approach produces substantial gains in small object detection (AP_S: 14.1%) and successfully recovers rare classes such as "Train" that are typically lost in large distributions. Our efficiency report shows that the framework processes images in real time with a 0.2 FPS overhead. The code is available at https://github.com/BinayKSingh/CCFF.

06.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

<i>CHPO</i> coordinates chilling recovery and nitrogen use in rice

Authors:

Global rice production faces mounting challenges from abnormal temperature fluctuations and nitrogen-fertilizer-driven environmental pollution1–7. Developing varieties that balance chilling resilience and nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) offers a promising solution, but the molecular networks coordinating these traits remain poorly understood. Here we identify CHILLING PHOENIX (CHPO), a major gene underlying the quantitative trait locus shared by both chilling tolerance and resilience. It encodes a MYB transcription factor that acts as a key regulator coordinating post-chilling recovery with nitrogen use in rice. Natural variation in a GCG-repeat-encoded polyalanine tract alters CHPO DNA-binding preference and redirects regulatory outputs between the japonica-type (CHPOjap) and indica-type (CHPOind), causing opposing effects on chilling tolerance and resilience. This allelic variation is shaped by domestication selection, with the CHPOjap allele probably derived from Chinese wild rice. CHPOjap directly targets OsTCP19 and OsNRT2.4 to fine-tune NUE, thereby enhancing chilling tolerance and resilience. These findings provide a mechanistic framework for a chilling-induced high-nitrogen-utilization module that alleviates the damage caused by chilling stress, and a potential molecular design&nbsp;strategy for breeding rice varieties with both chilling resilience and high NUE at the&nbsp;recovery stage. A rice gene, CHPO, links chilling resilience with nitrogen-use efficiency, revealing a domestication-shaped regulatory mechanism that could guide breeding of climate-resilient, sustainable rice varieties.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Leveraging Energy Features for Surface Classification with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis Across Three Independent Datasets

arXiv:2606.18698v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The energy-based method remains a comparatively underexamined approach for surface classification in mobile robotics, despite promising results in constrained environments. This study evaluated the viability of using energy-derived features as either a standalone classification modality or as supplementary input to inertial data. A comprehensive evaluation was conducted across three publicly available datasets, comparing the performance of modern deep learning architectures including recurrent neural networks, convolutional neural networks, encoder-only transformers, and Mamba state-space models, under automated hyperparameter tuning and input sequence length optimization. The models achieved higher accuracy than previously reported values on all evaluated datasets, with the convolutional neural network yielding the highest overall performance. When relying exclusively on energy-based features, the models attained classification accuracies in the range of 85-90%, approximately 5-10% lower than those achieved when combined with inertial features (96-99%). Augmenting inertial data with energy features resulted in a consistent mean accuracy improvement of 1-2%. These findings indicate that classifiers relying solely on energy features offer sufficient accuracy for standalone deployment, while also providing a consistent gain when used in combination with other sensing modalities.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

HemExp: Clinically-Guided Latent Diffusion for Modeling Hematoma Expansion

Hematoma expansion (HE) after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a major determinant of acute triage and treatment decisions in neurosurgical care. However, most existing methods provide either a binary expansion risk or a single follow-up volume, limiting uncertainty-aware decisions. We introduce HemExp, a clinically-guided latent diffusion model that generates patient-specific follow-up non-contrast CT images, along with segmentations of intraparenchymal and intraventricular hemorrhage. Generation is conditioned on baseline imaging, clinical variables, and an explicit expansion indicator, enabling controllable simulation of realistic clinical scenarios. HemExp uses a hemorrhage-aware multi-head variational autoencoder and models progression as the difference between baseline and follow-up latent representations with a conditional diffusion model. The model is trained on paired scans from 450 patients across multiple centers and evaluated on 107 patients from a held-out institution. HemExp produces spatial HE probability maps by generating multiple synthetic follow-up images per patient to estimate distributions of plausible follow-up hematoma volumes. Perturbing clinical inputs such as symptom-onset-to-imaging time or anticoagulant status shifts the predicted follow-up volume distribution. HemExp extends binary predictors and demonstrates robust estimation of clinically relevant outcomes in the imaging space, such as hematoma volume, intraventricular involvement, and mass effects. Overall, our results support controllable latent diffusion as a promising direction for uncertainty-aware modeling of early ICH progression.

09.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Association of Genetic Liability to Psychiatric Disorders with Peripheral Metabolic Dysregulation

Importance: Individuals with psychiatric disorders face elevated cardiometabolic risk which is linked to increased mortality. The extent to which this reflects shared pathogenesis or the downstream effects of illness and treatment remains poorly understood. Objective: To characterize the direct pleiotropic effects of psychiatric genetic liability on circulating metabolites and aggregate cardiometabolic risk, independent of psychiatric diagnosis and psychotropic medication use. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB). Participants: MGBB participants with metabolomic profiling, genomic data, and linked electronic health records. Exposures: Genetic liability to nine psychiatric disorders quantified using polygenic risk scores (PRS): attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anorexia nervosa (ANO), anxiety disorder (ANX), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD), PTSD, schizophrenia (SCZ), and substance use disorder (SUD). Main Outcomes and Measures: 249 circulating metabolites and four metabolomic risk scores (MRS) for type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and vascular dementia. PRS-metabolite associations were estimated using nested models adjusting for lifetime psychiatric diagnosis and psychotropic medication use. Results: Across 25,290 participants, we identified 604 significant PRS-metabolite associations (Bonferroni p< 1.36 x 10-4), of which 89% persisted after adjustment for lifetime diagnosis and medication use, suggesting that the direct genetic effects on metabolism are largely independent of illness or treatment. PRS for MDD, PTSD, and ADHD showed the most extensive dysregulation, with a transdiagnostic pattern of elevated lipids and systemic inflammation, specifically triglycerides ({beta} = 0.04 to 0.05, all p< 4.4 x10-13) and glycoprotein acetyls ({beta} = 0.05, all p< 2.2 x10-16). Notably, PRS for SCZ and BD showed minimal metabolite dysregulation despite having the strongest association with their target diagnoses. PRS for MDD, PTSD, ADHD, and SUD were associated with increased MRS across cardiometabolic conditions ({beta} = 0.03 to 0.08, all p< 2.1 x10-4). Sensitivity analyses controlling for BMI or excluding participants without any psychiatric history (N: 21,305 and 11,150, respectively) showed a similar pattern. Conclusions and Relevance: Psychiatric genetic liability is associated with systemic metabolic dysregulation independent of illness onset or treatment, supporting a partially pleiotropic basis for psychiatric-cardiometabolic comorbidity.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Holographic Memory for Zero-Shot Compositional Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs: A Mechanistic Study of Where and Why It Fails

Authors:

arXiv:2606.24948v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models predict single-hop links well but have no mechanism for zero-shot compositional queries: multi-hop questions whose relation chains never appeared during training. Holographic Reduced Representations (HRR), which bind and unbind symbols via circular convolution, are a theoretically attractive candidate, since binding is approximately invertible and associative. We test whether this promise holds. We study two holographic memory variants, real-valued HRR and phase-only Fourier HRR (FHRR), each with a modern Hopfield cleanup, on FB15k-237 over five seeds. Four findings follow. First, both are competitive single-hop retrievers (filtered MRR 0.358 +/- 0.002 for HRR, 0.350 +/- 0.021 for FHRR). Second, neither composes zero-shot: accuracy stays at chance across all cleanup temperatures. Third, the main contribution, we localise the failure mechanistically. A hop-1 probe shows the memory recovers the correct intermediate entity with high fidelity (MRR 0.896 +/- 0.002 for HRR), yet composition still fails even with a verified-correct intermediate. A second probe shows why: posing the ground-truth second-hop fact as a standalone atomic query, bypassing composition entirely, already recovers it at only 0.26 to 0.48x average atomic accuracy, uniformly across relation fan-out. The bottleneck is not the bind-unbind algebra or the cleanup; it is that facts compositional chains pass through are intrinsically harder for the superposed memory to retrieve, a capacity and interference effect present already at a single hop. Fourth, we prove (Lemma 4.1) that FHRR's softmax cleanup is not phase-equivariant, compounding the primary failure on the minority of chains where hop-1 itself errs. Fixing zero-shot composition requires improving retrieval capacity under superposition, not just redesigning the cleanup.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Two-Layer Linear Auto-Regressive Models Estimate Latent States

arXiv:2606.12691v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

12.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Quantitative Oppenheim Conjecture for Random Quadratic Forms and Optimal Variance Bounds in Function Fields

arXiv:2606.16699v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We prove a quantitative version of Oppenheim's conjecture in the function field setting. In order to do so, we compute the higher moments of the Siegel transform. In particular, we find an optimal bound on the variance of the number of lattice points in a set. Moreover, we compute the exact variance of the number of lattice points in a ball, which is of independent interest.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

The Correctness Illusion in LLM-Generated GPU Kernels

arXiv:2606.20128v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Benchmarks for LLM-generated GPU kernels (KernelBench, TritonBench, GEAK) score correctness through fixed-shape, small-sample allclose-style checks. The number of inputs varies between benchmarks. The shape, dtype, and tolerance are fixed for each kernel. We test that oracle empirically. We construct a controlled corpus of 24 Triton and CPU stand-in kernels (15 correct controls and 9 LLM-style buggy variants seeded with documented transcription errors) and re-evaluate it under op-schema-aware seeded fuzzing with a high-precision (fp64) CPU reference and per-(op, dtype) absolute tolerances. The seeded oracle flags 9 of 9 buggy kernels and passes 15 of 15 correct controls, at zero precision cost on controls. We extend the corpus to 26 ops (adding a flash-attention pair) and re-run the same protocol on five GPU classes (RTX 3060, A10, L40S, A100 SXM4, H100 NVL). The verdicts are identical across all five GPUs: 10 of 10 illusions caught and 16 of 16 controls clean. The corpus result is about LLM-style transcription bugs that the allclose-on-one-shape oracle certifies as correct, not about the bug rate of any specific deployed LLM. Every flagged failure replays byte-for-byte from a stored seed.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Many-body chirality of topological stabilizer states

arXiv:2606.20472v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A defining feature of chirality is the distinction between a system and its mirror image. Despite extensive experimental observations of chiral phases and theoretical advances, a quantum-information theoretic characterization of chirality based solely on the entanglement structure of many-body quantum states remains elusive. Here, we introduce the notion of many-body chirality by formulating it as an obstruction to transforming a quantum state into its complex conjugate through finite-depth local operations. We rigorously establish many-body chirality for stabilizer realizations of $\mathbb{Z}_d^{(k)}$ anyon theories, proving that complex conjugation can be implemented by local quantum channels if and only if the underlying anyon data are mirror invariant. This reveals forms of chirality that evade conventional diagnostics, including examples with vanishing modular commutator, vanishing chiral central charge, and commuting-projector realizations. We further show that this obstruction is intrinsically four-partite, while invisible to tripartite entanglement structure. Finally, we prove that $\mathbb{Z}_d^{(k)}$ states with $d>2$ possess intrinsic many-body imaginarity: their complex phase structure cannot be removed by finite-depth local unitaries. Remarkably, this includes states that are not many-body chiral.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

MUNI: Multimodal Unified Latent Diffusion for Coherent Any-to-Any Generation

arXiv:2606.16408v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce MUNI, an end-to-end multimodal latent diffusion framework for any-to-any generation that unifies subset-conditioned cross-modal generation and unconditional joint sampling through a shared stochastic latent. Existing multimodal generative models are largely LLM-based, which limits leveraging modality-specific generators and requires text-paired data for training. Recent diffusion- and flow-based any-to-any extensions take a different direction but still rely on text-aligned embeddings, fully-paired training, or matched-dimensionality deterministic mappings. MUNI rests on two complementary contributions, one architectural and one in the training objective. First, we extend latent diffusion to multimodal any-to-any generation end-to-end: instead of the standard two-stage recipe that precomputes a frozen latent space and then fits a prior over it, MUNI jointly trains modality-specific encoders, expressive decoders, and a single shared flow-based prior under one objective. Second, we identify that the standard aggregation rules of multimodal variational inference are insufficient once coupled with a learned prior and expressive decoders. A suitable shared latent must simultaneously satisfy coherence across generated modalities, predictive sufficiency of subset latents, and minimality of the latent content. We propose a routed training objective whose structural choices align the latent with these criteria and admit a minimal-sufficiency characterization in the realizable setting. Experiments on PolyMNIST-Quadrant-Labels and a large-scale image-text-audio benchmark show MUNI matching or exceeding the strongest baselines on conditional generation while opening its largest margins on unconditional coherence. Project page: https://muni-proj.github.io/.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in applications such as travel assistance and purchasing support, they are often required to make subjective choices on behalf of users in settings where no objectively correct answer exists. We study LLM decision-making in a travel-assistant context by presenting models with choice dilemmas and analyzing their responses using multinomial logit models to derive implied willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. These WTP values are subsequently compared to human benchmark values from the economics literature. In addition to a baseline setting, we examine how model behavior changes under more realistic conditions, including the provision of information about users' past choices and persona-based prompting. Our results show that while meaningful WTP values can be derived for larger LLMs, they also display systematic deviations at the attribute level. Additionally, they tend to overestimate human WTP overall, particularly when expensive options or business-oriented personas are introduced. Conditioning models on prior preferences for cheaper options yields valuations that are closer to human benchmarks. Overall, our findings highlight both the potential and the limitations of using LLMs for subjective decision support and underscore the importance of careful model selection, prompt design, and user representation when deploying such systems in practice.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Execution-State Capsules: Graph-Bound Execution-State Checkpoint and Restore for Low-Latency, Small-Batch, On-Device Physical-AI Serving

Authors:

arXiv:2606.20537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mainstream LLM serving systems reuse prefix work mainly through paged or radix key-value (KV) caches. This is highly effective for high-throughput, high-concurrency serving, but it manages only one positional fragment of execution state: the KV cache. We study the opposite regime: low-latency, small-batch, on-device physical-AI serving, where interactive LLM agents, speech systems, and robot policies repeatedly branch, reset, interrupt, and re-enter under tight responsiveness budgets. We introduce execution-state capsules, a graph-bound checkpoint and restore mechanism for the complete restorable state at a committed boundary. FlashRT is a white-box, backend-facing kernel runtime whose evaluated NVIDIA CUDA backend runs captured graph plans over contiguous static buffers with no block-table indirection. Because the live state is a closed set of named buffers, a capsule can snapshot, restore, fork, or roll back the whole execution boundary, including KV, recurrent state, convolution state, MTP state, and metadata. This moves reuse from token-addressed KV fragments to graph-bound execution-state boundaries. On an RTX 5090, capsule restore is byte-exact at the stored-state level and token-identical under greedy decode. A KV-only ablation diverges, showing that recurrent state is load-bearing. GPU-resident snapshot and restore are sub-millisecond, and TTFT speedup over cold prefill grows from 3.9x at 2k tokens to 27x at 16k tokens. On Jetson AGX Thor and DGX Spark, the same correctness and structural properties hold. Capsules are not a replacement for high-throughput KV-cache serving; they define a complementary latency-first serving point for explicit execution-state reuse.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.25439v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment. As a result, forecasts exhibiting over-smoothing, phase shifts, or frequency distortions may achieve favorable error scores despite substantial structural degradation. To address this limitation, we propose TopoCast, a topology-driven framework for evaluating structural fidelity in TSF. TopoCast reconstructs phase-space representations of forecast and ground-truth sequences using Takens delay embedding and applies persistent homology to characterize their intrinsic dynamics. We derive four complementary topological fidelity measures from persistence diagrams and aggregate them into a Topological Fidelity Score (TFS). We further introduce dominant cycle overlap, a novel metric that maps persistent topological features to the temporal domain to assess whether dominant oscillatory patterns occur at the correct time points. Combined with TFS, this yields the Localized Topological Fidelity Score (LTFS), a phase-aware measure that captures temporal localization errors invisible to existing evaluation metrics. Experiments on five Transformer architectures across three real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that models with similar forecasting errors can exhibit markedly different structural fidelity profiles, revealing failure modes overlooked by conventional evaluation and highlighting the value of topology-aware forecast assessment.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Limited Marginal Benefit of Reasoning-Heavy LLM Deployment in ESG Narrative Scoring: A 4-Model Consensus Study on Japanese Listed Firms

arXiv:2606.13693v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Automated scoring of ESG narrative disclosures with large language models (LLMs) is gaining traction, yet whether reasoning-heavy frontier models add value commensurate with their cost remains empirically unsettled. We evaluate this question on a corpus of ten Japanese listed firms across three rubric axes – quantitative targets, progress-tracking infrastructure, and external-standard alignment – using a four-model consensus design that combines a reasoning-on frontier model with three reasoning-off contemporaries. Across 120 firm x axis x model scores, the pooled mean absolute deviation between the reasoning-on model and each reasoning-off counterpart is 0.38 on a 5-point scale; only 2% of pairwise comparisons reach a two-point deviation, and none exceeds two points. Per-firm cost accounting shows the reasoning-on arm alone costs roughly 5.6x as much as the three-provider reasoning-off ensemble, for outcomes that differ only within small margins. We conclude that in span-based ESG narrative scoring, reasoning-heavy deployment does not materially improve outcomes relative to reasoning-off consensus, while substantially increasing operational cost. We discuss implications for cost-effective ESG auto-scoring pipelines and LLM deployment governance in applied accountability settings. An earlier version of this work is available on SSRN (Abstract ID 6683303).

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

An Exploratory Study of Blood Glucose Estimation from Photoplethysmography Signals using Machine Learning

arXiv:2606.15927v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diabetes and extreme blood sugar levels are some of the major health problems faced by humans today across the world. While Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) has emerged as an effective technology for management of diabetes as well as for monitoring blood sugar levels, this technology has traditionally been invasive (that is, requiring the piercing of the skin) and carries the risk of irritation, induration, etc. This highlights the need for accurate and non-invasive CGM methods that can be deployed at scale. With the emergence of various sensing technologies and their integration in wearables like the smart-watch, we now have the capability to continuously monitor body signals like the Photoplethysmogram (PPG) in a non-invasive manner. Having the ability to continuously monitor blood glucose through CGMs and continuously monitor PPG signals through a smart-watch offers an opportunity to get dense data on these two, opening the possibility of building machine learning and deep learning based models to estimate blood glucose level from PPG signals. In this work, we first present a paired dataset comprising continuous PPG signals from a smartwatch along with glucose values recorded using a CGM device. We also present the results of some preliminary experimental explorations performed on our dataset. These preliminary results suggest that some predictive signals may exist, though more exploration is needed with more data from a larger number of individuals. The dataset can be accessed at https://zenodo.org/records/20577959

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Clinical-grade Cuffless Blood Pressure Monitoring via Deep-tissue Diffuse Speckle Pulsatile Flowmetry

Blood pressure (BP) is a vital sign which is measured to diagnose and manage hypertension. However, current methods to measure BP use inflatable cuffs which cause discomfort and limit the frequency at which measurements can be made, or intra-arterial catheters which are invasive and pose infection risks. Here, we propose and evaluate the use of Diffuse Speckle Pulsatile Flowmetry (DSPF) as a cuffless BP measurement method to address these limitations. DSPF is a laser speckle-based technique which simultaneously records blood flow rate and blood volume (i.e. photoplethysmography or PPG) signals from relatively deep vascular tissue. Using information from these signals, we studied DSPFs effectiveness in measuring systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) through an outpatient study in which 133 patients were recruited, and in measuring beat-to-beat BP waveforms through an inpatient study in which two patients were recruited. In the outpatient study, the DSPF method was able to achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 4.17 mmHg and 2.42 mmHg for SBP and DBP respectively compared to conventional cuff-based methods. It was also able to fulfil the requirements of the AAMI/ESH/ISO 81060-2:2018 standard for BP measurement devices and attain an "A" grade according to the British Hypertension Society grading scheme. For the inpatient study, it produced BP waveforms which had MAEs of 2.35 mmHg and 3.06 mmHg compared to arterial-line measurements for the two patients, respectively. Compared to PPG which has been studied more extensively as a cuffless BP measurement method, we found through ablation studies that DSPF was able to reach significantly lower MAEs and hence better accuracies. DSPF augments the performance of PPG-only methods by leveraging additional information from the blood flow rate signal, and we therefore find it to be a superior cuffless BP measurement method which can potentially be used in outpatient, inpatient, and remote settings.

22.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-12

ProMiSE: Protein Multi-State Evaluation Benchmark in Biological Contexts

Proteins are inherently dynamic, with biological functions often emerging from transitions between multiple conformational states. While recent breakthroughs have largely addressed the static structure prediction problem, no systematic benchmark exists to demonstrate how well current models capture functionally relevant dynamics. We introduce ProMiSE, the first benchmark that provides both a dataset and an evaluation scheme, based on native biological assemblies and integrating major conformational change mechanisms - intrinsic, ligand-induced, and protein-induced - within a single curated dataset. We conducted a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art structure prediction models, including AlphaFold3 and recent generative approaches. Our findings reveal that current models exhibit a limited ability to sample intrinsic multi-states and are often insensitive to biological context in induced scenarios. Internal representation analysis suggests that training-data exposure can shift predictions toward dominant conformational states over alternative biologically relevant states, primarily at the structure module. In contrast, results from BioEmu indicate that reducing decoding-stage bias can substantially improve multi-state sampling without major changes to upstream pair representations.

23.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Logarithmic Large Deviations for Heavy-Tailed Sums

arXiv:2606.16487v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We establish logarithmic large-deviation bounds for sums of independent nonnegative random variables with regularly varying tails. The normalization is chosen at the extreme-value scale and the speed is $\log n$. In contrast with Cramér's theorem, the resulting rate function is determined only by the tail index. The proof transfers a maximum large-deviation principle to sums in the one-big-jump region.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Towards Federated Long-Tailed Graph Learning: An Energy-Guided Dual Decoupling Approach

arXiv:2606.24237v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated Graph Learning facilitates collaborative graph modeling across distributed clients while preserving data privacy. However, real-world data categories frequently exhibit long-tailed distributions. Such statistical scarcity severely degrades performance in two ways: it biases the global model toward majority classes, and it structurally isolates minority nodes by submerging them in heterophilic, head-dominated neighborhoods. While existing methods attempt topology-agnostic statistical compensations, they often fail under data scarcity. Instead of recovering tail nodes, they overfit the structural noise from adjacent dominant classes, leading to representation degradation. To address these limitations, we propose FedEPD, a framework built on a dual decoupling paradigm that separates topological purification from semantic recalibration. Specifically, FedEPD utilizes distribution-aware Dirichlet energy pruning to filter spatial heterophilic edges. It then overcomes Non-IID distribution shifts by extracting robust global prototypes from topologically central nodes, which are incorporated into local representations via a spatial low-pass prototype injection. Furthermore, a two stage alternating optimization strategy strictly protects majority decision boundaries while improving minority accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FedEPD achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse long-tailed benchmarks, yielding absolute improvements of up to 4.97% in Accuracy and 5.48% in Macro-F1.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

The Power of Test-Time Training for Approximate Sampling

arXiv:2606.11437v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficiently sampling from a complex probability distribution is a fundamental problem which has become increasingly pertinent in recent years with the rise of generative AI, as sophisticated sampling procedures from LLMs have been proposed to solve challenging reasoning problems. The efficacy of such sampling algorithms is limited, however, by the relationship between the LLM and the particular sampling task at hand, which has motivated the framework of test-time training (TTT). TTT works by updating a model's weights in response to partial generations and reward feedback received at inference time, thus adapting to the particular problem. In this work, we propose a formalization for TTT as the problem of producing a sample from a given probability measure $\mu^\star$ belonging to a known class ${F}$ of distributions, given an oracle $\hat \mu$ which yields approximate density estimates for $\mu^\star$. This is closely related to the problem of reducing sampling to approximate counting studied in seminal works of Jerrum, Valiant & Vazirani (1986) and Jerrum & Sinclair (1989): namely, when ${F}$ is the class of all distributions, it coincides exactly with the aforementioned counting-to-sampling reduction. In this paper, we first show a quadratic lower bound on the query complexity of sampling from $\mu^\star$ given query access to $\hat \mu$ (for sufficiently large classes ${F}$), thus showing that the random walk approach proposed by Jerrum & Sinclair (1989) and refined by Hayes & Sinclair (2010), is optimal. This answers an open question posed by Hayes & Sinclair. We then show that this lower bound can be circumvented if the size of ${F}$ is bounded appropriately. As we discuss, this latter result can be viewed as an abstraction of TTT, and thus represents a starting point for the development of a principled theoretical framework for TTT.