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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

Privacy-Aware Visual Language Models

As Visual Language Models (VLMs) become increasingly embedded in everyday applications, ensuring they can recognise and appropriately handle privacy-sensitive content is thus essential to protect users. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of twelve state-of-the-art VLMs and identify limitations in their understanding of visual privacy. However, existing privacy-related datasets often suffer from label inconsistencies, limiting their reliability. To address this, we introduce two compact, high-quality benchmarks, PrivBench and PrivBench-H, that focus on commonly recognised visual privacy categories aligned with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Additionally, we present PrivTune, an instruction-tuning dataset specifically curated to improve privacy sensitivity. We obtain multiple Privacy VLMs by fine-tuning off-the-shelf VLMs on only a few hundred samples from PrivTune, which leads to substantial gains on all benchmarks, surpassing even GPT-4, while maintaining strong performance on other tasks. Our findings show that privacy-awareness in VLMs can be substantially improved with minimal data and careful dataset design, setting the stage for safer, more privacy-aligned AI systems.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Critical spectral behavior and large deviations for geometric $\alpha$-stable processes

arXiv:2606.17501v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we study the Schrödinger-type operator associated with geometric stable processes on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$, especially the differentiability of spectral function. Let $\mathcal{H}$ be the generator of the geometric stable process and $\mu$ a smooth measure on $\mathbb{R}^{d}$. Then the spectral function $C(\theta)$ is defined as $C(\theta) = -\inf \sigma(-\mathcal{H} - \theta \mu)$, where $\sigma(\mathcal{A})$ denotes the spectrum of $\mathcal{A}$ and $\theta$ is a real parameter. Since the geometric stable process exhibits severe local singularities in its Lévy measure, its transition semigroup lacks ultracontractivity, which invalidates classical methods for proving the differentiability. To overcome this obstacle, we use the compact embedding of the extended Dirichlet space into $L^2(\mu)$. As a primary application of this differentiability, we establish a large deviation principle for a positive continuous additive functional associated with the smooth measure $\mu$.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Machine Unlearning for the XGBoost Model with Network Intrusion Datasets

arXiv:2606.19220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine Unlearning (MU) has emerged as an important technique for removing specific data points from trained models without requiring full retraining. However, most existing MU research focuses on deep learning and image data, leaving a gap in the domain of network intrusion detection, which relies heavily on tabular data. This work introduces XGBoost-Forget, an unlearning approach for the XGBoost model, to address this gap. The approach is evaluated on two tabular Network Intrusion (NI) datasets, IoT-23 and GeNIS, using multiple metrics to assess model performance, unlearning efficiency, and forgetting quality. The results show that XGBoost-Forget maintains predictive performance close to the original model while providing significantly faster unlearning, demonstrating its potential for MU in tabular NI settings.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Quantum Reference Fields Transformations in Linearized Quantum Gravity

arXiv:2606.09344v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffeomorphism invariance is a central feature of general relativity. Without external reference structures, matter and geometry must be specified relationally, with respect to internal subsystems serving as reference frames. In quantum gravity, these reference systems must themselves be treated as quantum, motivating the use of quantum reference frames. In this work, we address how such a relational description could be formulated within linearized quantum gravity. To this purpose, we introduce quantum reference fields, i.e. sets of four dynamical scalar fields whose stress-energy tensors enter the gravitational constraints. These fields extend the notion of quantum reference frames to local field-theoretic reference systems, allowing matter and gravitational degrees of freedom to be described relationally with respect to physical quantum systems. By generalizing the perspective-neutral construction of quantum reference frames, we show that relational, gauge invariant observables admit reduced descriptions in the perspective of each quantum reference field, and we derive the unitary transformations relating them. The resulting unitary maps implement local quantum coordinate changes between different internal perspectives, and act on the linearized gravitational field with an analogous structure to a linearized diffeomorphism, but with the classical gauge parameter replaced by a physical quantum field. Finally, we construct a relational von Neumann-type measurement scheme, showing how the corresponding reduced observables can be accessed operationally from the perspective of a quantum reference field.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Constitutional On-Policy Safe Distillation

arXiv:2606.03089v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) has emerged as an efficient post-training paradigm by using a teacher conditioned on privileged information to provide dense token-level supervision. Prior work has shown that OPSD can collapse in verifiable reasoning tasks, but safety alignment differs in that it is guided by high-level constitutions rather than explicit target answers, making it a natural setting to revisit dense distillation. However, our pilot study show that safety OPSD still suffers from severe collapse: constitutional conditioning contracts the teacher distribution toward short and overly conservative responses, and Reverse KL further amplifies this contraction into reduced expressiveness. We formalize this effect as geometric leakage under safety boundaries in a non-orthogonal semantic space, where safety pressure transfers into the expressiveness dimension. Based on this analysis, we propose Constitutional On-Policy Safe Distillation (COPSD), which first calibrates the teacher through a Cross-SFT cold-start and then performs constitution-conditioned on-policy distillation. Experiments on 12 benchmarks show that COPSD achieves a consistently stronger safety–helpfulness trade-off than baselines while substantially reducing the safety tax on general reasoning ability.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Age of LLM: A Strategic 1v1 Benchmark for Reasoning, Diplomacy and Reliability of Large Language Models under Fog of War

Authors:

We introduce Age of LLM, a turn-based 1v1 benchmark in which two LLMs face off on a 13x7 grid to destroy the enemy base. Three stressors are deliberate: fog of war, full diplomacy (messages, ceasefires, ultimatums; uranium kept secret), and a reliability dimension where every turn must follow a strict JSON schema and an illegal action is silently discarded. The engine is private and each match uses a fresh random map seed and opponent, mitigating the data contamination that affects public benchmarks. Models receive a (near) rule-only prompt with no build-order advice (two tactical seed phrases were present during data collection; see Section 2.7). We benchmark 15 reasoning models across 54 matches and 5,258 actions. Findings: (1) the nuclear rush dominates (78% on the rules-coherent v0.11+ sub-corpus; 85% corpus-wide) with a sole-launcher signature that is largely mechanical under secret-simultaneous launch rules, not a cognitive deterrence failure; (2) military conquest is rare but faster (12.3 vs 18.9 turns); (3) diplomacy is prolific yet almost never consummated; (4) ~58% of illegal actions are fog/state errors, making the illegal-action rate a measure of belief-tracking; (5) – the least established, and the only one we label exploratory – a weak link associates reliability with winning. The corpus is small, unbalanced and not side-swapped, so the ranking is a preliminary descriptive view, not a contribution. Beyond ranking, the turn-by-turn traces of actions and messages make the corpus a lens on how LLMs reason under adversarial uncertainty – their belief-tracking, spontaneous deception, and per-model cognitive "personas" – which we frame as a future research direction. We release the replay format, an isometric viewer and all replays; engine source on request.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Advancing WordArt-Oriented Scene Text Recognition: Datasets and Methods

WordArt (artistic text) features highly customized fonts, textures, and layouts, making WordArt-oriented scene TExt Recognition (WATER) substantially more challenging than general Scene Text Recognition (STR). Existing STR datasets and methods, typically built around regular scene text and fixed-template inputs, struggle to scale to WATER. Thus, we aim to advance this task from both data and model perspectives. On the data side, we construct a 2M synthetic dataset, WATER-S, with the scale improved by hundreds of times compared to existing artistic text data. WATER-S consists of two complementary subsets. One rendered by an upgraded rendering pipeline (SynthWordArt), which provides highly accurate and controllable synthetic WordArt data. The other is generated by combining Qwen3-VL for prompt mining and Z-Image for image synthesis, which improves the coverage of realistic and diverse data. On the model side, we propose WATERec. It adopts an visual encoder supporting arbitrary-shaped inputs and an autoregressive decoder to model complex layouts, structurally breaking the bottleneck of fixed-template STR on WordArt. Experiments show that this architecture outperforms prior STR methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance on irregular texts such as WordArt. Together with WATER-R, carefully reorganized from existing real STR data, our strong baseline with the new synthetic data and model design reaches 90.40% accuracy on WordArt-Bench, surpassing both general-purpose and OCR-specialized vision-language models by a large margin. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YesianRohn/WATER.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training

arXiv:2606.24164v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent end-to-end models for EEG-guided target speech extraction report impressive results, underscoring potential for neuro-steered hearing technologies. However, our analysis reveals that high within-trial performance can be driven by trial-specific EEG structure that acts as shortcuts for target selection, leading to poor generalization on unseen trials. To overcome this gap, we propose TRUST-TSE, a two-stage framework to mitigate shortcut learning. By introducing contrastive pretraining with attended-speaker negative sampling, we encourage the EEG encoder to capture fine-grained EEG–speech alignment while suppressing trial-identity cues. We also employ a confidence-weighted extraction objective based on EEG–source similarity to guide extraction using the learned representations. Experiments on KUL and DTU datasets show that TRUST-TSE outperforms end-to-end baselines under strict cross-trial protocols, addressing a key reliability bottleneck of existing approaches.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

SAGE: Stochastic Prompt Optimization via Agent-Guided Exploration

Context engineering has emerged as a primary lever for improving AI systems without parameter updates. Recent work showing that textual gradients do not function as real gradients motivates treating automatic prompt optimization (APO) as black-box search. We introduce SPO (Stochastic Prompt Optimization), a framework for stochastic search over prompt space, and compare three strategies of increasing sophistication: error-informed random search, a genetic algorithm with evolutionary operators, and SAGE (SPO via Agent-Guided Exploration), a multi-agent pipeline with diagnostic code execution. Across three benchmarks, no single strategy dominates; effectiveness depends on the interaction of landscape structure with error type. We further deploy SAGE on a mental-health chatbot under a continuous optimization paradigm, where it compounds eight cycles of individually-noisy A/B tests into a statistically robust gain in next-day retention. We argue that coupling qualitative diagnosis with quantitative validation is what makes agentic optimization effective for open-ended task-oriented dialogue.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

DAL: A Practical Prior-Free Black-Box Framework for Piecewise Stationary Bandits

arXiv:2501.19401v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a practical, black-box framework termed Detection Augmented Learning (DAL) for the problem of piecewise stationary bandits without knowledge of the underlying non-stationarity. DAL accepts any stationary bandit algorithm with order-optimal regret as input and augments it with a change detector, enabling applicability to all common bandit variants. Extensive experimentation demonstrates that DAL consistently surpasses all state-of-the-art methods across diverse non-stationary scenarios, including synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, underscoring its versatility and scalability. We provide theoretical insights into DAL's strong empirical performance, complemented by thorough empirical validation.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

UBP2: Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning for Efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.19328v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Preference-based RL provides an approach to learning reward models from pairwise comparisons of behaviors, bypassing the need for explicit reward design. However, existing methods typically rely on passive data collection and suffer from poor sample efficiency, especially during the early stages of learning. We introduce a model-based approach that actively directs exploration by jointly reasoning over uncertainties in the reward, dynamics, and value functions. Our method, Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning (UBP2), uses ensembles of reward, dynamics, and value function models to evaluate candidate trajectories according to a unified score that combines expected reward, terminal value, and epistemic uncertainty. Planning under this objective yields an explicit tradeoff between exploitation and information acquisition without requiring ad hoc exploration heuristics. Under standard regularity assumptions, we establish sublinear regret guarantees for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon settings. Empirically, experiments on the Meta-World benchmark show UBP2 achieves substantially higher sample efficiency than model-free preference-based methods and non-optimistic model-based baselines.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Prevalence and Clinical Impact of Pathogenic Variants in Cardiomyopathy Genes Among Individuals with Cardiac Conduction Disorders

Importance: Cardiac conduction disorders have traditionally been regarded as a secondary manifestation of underlying structural heart diseases. However, isolated conduction disorders may precede the onset of heart failure (HF) suggesting shared mechanisms. Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and clinical significance of pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) rare variants in cardiomyopathy genes among individuals with conduction disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants: Biobank analysis of 192,834 participants with whole genome sequence data from Vanderbilt's BioVU and 353,092 participants from the All of Us Research Program (AoU). Participants with primary conduction disorder (left bundle branch block [LBBB], right bundle branch block [RBBB], high-grade atrioventricular block [AVB]) were identified after excluding secondary causes. Exposures: P/LP variants in cardiomyopathy genes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was P/LP carrier status by age and HF status. Secondary outcomes included incident HF and composite ventricular arrhythmias/sudden cardiac death/mortality (VA/SCD/mortality). Results: Among 16,959 participants with conduction disorders in BioVU and 13,442 in AoU, 432 (2.6%) and 206 (1.5%) were P/LP carriers, respectively. Conduction disorder was independently associated with carrier status (BioVU p

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Staying In Character: Perspective-Bounded Memory For Book-Based Role-Playing Agents

Recent LLM role-playing systems build character agents from novels by extracting characters, scenes, and relations. Yet long-narrative role-playing suffers from two failures: Factual Overreach, where shared retrieval or parametric memory lets a character use facts outside its perspective, and Stylistic Monotony, where profile descriptions flatten a character into a fixed voice. To address these failures, we propose REVERIEMEM, a three-layer memory architecture for book-based character agents. The episodic layer stores first-person scene memories; the semantic layer stores visibility-tagged facts; and the personality layer stores situation-dependent speech and behaviour patterns. For evaluation, we construct KBF-QA, a 4,386-question benchmark over eight novels for testing knowledge boundaries. REVERIEMEM improves Knowledge Boundary Fidelity by 34.6 percentage points over the strongest prior method. On BOOKWORLD's five-dimension pairwise narrative protocol, REVERIEMEM achieves a ~ 79% win rate, suggesting that perspective-bounded memory improves both boundary fidelity and character-grounded narrative generation.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Physics-Distilled Neural Network enabled by Large Language Models for Manufacturing Process-Property Predictive Modeling

arXiv:2606.11605v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting process-property relationships in manufacturing is often challenged by high experimental costs and the limited interpretability of complex 'black-box' models. This paper proposes a novel knowledge distillation framework designed to achieve high-accuracy predictions in data-scarce scenarios. The framework integrates analytical physics priors, which are systematically extracted from scientific literature via Large Language Models, into a privileged teacher model. We employ a Graph-Masked Attention layer to capture the complex physical dependencies among input variables showing strict setpoints or a combination of static and high-frequency temporal signatures. This privileged knowledge is distilled into a lightweight student predictor for inference. The feasibility and robustness of the framework are evaluated through a comprehensive experiment across five diverse manufacturing processes. To ensure statistical reliability, given the small dataset sizes, a repeated K-fold cross-validation technique is employed to quantify model stability and generalization. Results indicate that the proposed framework consistently achieves high predictive accuracy across all evaluated domains. Most importantly, the architecture demonstrates significant fault tolerance by maintaining robust predictive performance even in scenarios where LLM-derived analytical priors are suboptimal or incomplete. Furthermore, the student predictor achieves an inference frequency exceeding 6000 Hz, which facilitates real-time edge deployment on standard industrial hardware. This work provides a scalable solution for bridging the gap between theoretical physics and real-time industrial monitoring in data-limited environments.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

A Definition of Good Explanations and the Challenges Explaining LLM Outputs

arXiv:2606.14838v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: How to define a good explanation is a long-standing philosophical debate which has found recent renewed interest in the context of AI outputs. Explainability is crucial for AI adoption in many contexts, but in order to produce good explanations of AI systems, we must first have an understanding of what good explanations are. In this paper we propose a definition inspired by the notion of counterfactual explanations, however we argue that one must also take into account the interlocutor's prior beliefs in each fact that could be offered in an explanation. We explore the ramifications of this definition for AI explainability and, in particular, why LLM outputs are difficult to produce good explanations for.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Using wastewater surveillance to explore community-level dietary intake in sewered and non-sewered sanitation systems in Malawi, Africa

Wastewater can be used to measure biomarkers that reflect population-level dietary intake and diversity; however, how this approach may apply in a low-income country remains a knowledge gap. This study aims to evaluate whether select dietary-related metabolites can be detected in wastewater and environmental surveillance (WES) samples from both sewered and non-sewered sanitation systems in Malawi, Africa. Fourteen WES samples were collected and analyzed from two university campuses in Mzuzu and Thyolo, Malawi. Four targets were analyzed: N-methyl-2-pyridone-5-carboxamide (2PY; a biomarker of vitamin B3), 4-pyridoxic acid (4-PA; a biomarker of vitamin B6), as well as enterodiol and enterolactone (biomarkers of dietary fiber and polyphenol consumption). An 18-question survey, paired spatiotemporally with the WES measurements, assessed self-reported daily dietary intake, food insecurity, and nutrient deficiency symptoms among 500 respondents. Among the 14 WES samples, 2PY, 4-PA, and enterolactone were detected, while enterodiol was not detected above the method limit (

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-25

Universal Statistics of Measurement-Induced Entanglement in Tomonaga-Luttinger liquids

arXiv:2512.13809v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the statistics of measurement-induced entanglement (MIE) after partial measurement on a class of one-dimensional quantum critical states described by Tomonaga-Luttinger liquids at low energies. Using a replica trick to average over measurement outcomes in the charge basis and tools from conformal field theory (CFT), we derive closed-form expressions for the cumulants of MIE. We show that exact Born-averaging over microscopic measurement outcomes becomes equivalent at low energy to averaging over conformal boundary conditions weighted by their corresponding partition functions. Our results yield distinctive critical behavior across all cumulants in the regime where the unmeasured parts of the system are maximally separated. We also obtain the full distribution of MIE, finding that it is generically bimodal and exhibits fat-tails. We corroborate our analytical predictions by numerical calculations and find good agreement between them.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Interpolation between Convolution and Attention via K-Nearest Neighbors

Authors:

The shift from Convolutional Neural Networks to Transformers has reshaped computer vision, yet these two architectural families are typically viewed as fundamentally distinct. Convolutional Neural Networks are defined by spatially local convolution operations, while Transformers rely on global self-attention. We argue that convolution and self-attention, despite their apparent differences, can be unified within a single k-nearest neighbor aggregation framework. The critical insight is that both operations are special cases of neighbor selection and weighted aggregation. Convolution selects neighbors by spatial proximity while self-attention selects by feature similarity, revealing that they lie on a continuous spectrum rather than representing categorically different computations. We introduce Convolutional Nearest Neighbors (ConvNN), a unified framework that formalizes this connection. ConvNN exactly recovers standard and depthwise convolution by restricting neighbor selection to normalized spatial coordinates, and exactly recovers self-attention and its sparse variants, including KVT-attention, by replacing spatial proximity with scaled dot-product similarity. Beyond these special cases, ConvNN serves as a drop-in replacement for both convolution and attention layers, enabling systematic exploration of the intermediate spectrum between local and global aggregation through configurable similarity functions, neighbor selection strategies, positional encodings, and aggregation kernels.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Hidden in Plain Sight: Benchmarking Agent Safety Against Decomposition Attacks with DECOMPBENCH

arXiv:2606.13994v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM-based Agents are becoming increasingly capable and widely deployed, creating growing incentives for adversarial misuse in the real-world. A key emerging threat is Decomposition Attacks [glukhov2024breach, jones2024adversaries] in which a harmful task is broken into simpler, benign subtasks that evade safety mechanisms when executed separately but cumulatively fulfill the malicious intent. Although recent benchmarks assess agent safety in multi-turn and multi-tool-use settings, they do not explicitly capture this form of decompositional misuse and may not represent realistic adversarial execution flows. To this end, we introduce DeCompBench, a benchmark designed specifically to evaluate agentic safety under decomposition attacks. DeCompBench is created with a decomposition-by-design principle using a graphical framework and enables harmful task decomposition into individually benign and executable subtasks with realistic workflows. Our experiments using a custom decomposer show that state-of-the-art agents exhibit high refusal rates on monolithic harmful tasks, but significantly lower refusal rates on their decomposed variants, while often inadvertently fulfilling the adversarial objectives. These findings underscore the need for safety evaluations against decomposition attacks and corresponding defenses. Our dataset is publicly available and can be found at https://huggingface.co/datasets/decompositionbench/DeCompBench.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

General circuit mapping algorithm for neutral atom quantum computers

arXiv:2606.20503v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neutral atom quantum computers (NAQC) are emerging as a promising, scalable quantum computing platform because of their long qubit coherence, flexible qubit arrangement, and multiqubit gate capabilities. However, circuit execution often requires physically moving qubits, making compilation a critical optimization challenge. We propose a circuit independent mathematical framework built on graph-theoretic combinatorial optimization that determines the minimal number of required qubit transfers. This model captures spatial constraints specific to NAQC platforms with zone-limited gate operations and multi-qubit gates. From this framework, we encode the qubit mapping problem as a nonlinear integer program and solve it using a genetic algorithm, enabling trade-offs between minimizing the total traveled distance and the number of parallel transfer operations. Compared to the state-of-the-art scalable compiler for zoned architectures, our approach consistently finds fewer transfers. Depending on the optimization focus, our method produces shorter traveled distances or fewer parallel transfer operations. This work provides both theoretical guaranties and a practical tool for efficient, architecture-aware quantum circuit compilation. As a result, practitioners can generate hardware-aware mappings that reduce movement-induced errors and better exploit atom transfer parallelism, directly improving execution efficiency on NAQC devices.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

Sparsity-adaptive concentration inequalities for random polynomials

arXiv:2606.24090v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove concentration inequalities for polynomials of independent, sparse $\alpha$-sub-exponential random variables. Specifically, we consider $X_i=\delta_i\xi_i$, where the Bernoulli selectors $\delta_i$ are independent with parameters $p_i$, and the variables $\xi_i$ are independent \(\alpha\)-sub-exponential random variables (not necessarily centered). For any polynomial $f:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R $ of degree at most $D$ and any $0

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Selective Capability Unlearning in End-to-End Spoken Language Understanding

Modern spoken language understanding (SLU) systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, where specific functionalities may need to be removed due to policy or safety constraints. In SLU, a functionality corresponds to an intent and its associated slot-generation behavior. However, in autoregressive models, suppressing a target intent does not eliminate the conditional mapping that generates slots conditioned on that intent. When the intent prefix is externally supplied, the model can reconstruct the original intent-slot structure. We identify this structural failure as capability persistence. We propose \underline{Binding \underline{S}ubspace (BSU)}, a representation-level framework that isolates and attenuates intent-conditioned directions underlying this mapping. Across SLU benchmarks, BSU substantially reduces forced-prefix recoverability while preserving retained performance.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Metastability for the Curie-Weiss-Potts model with unbounded random interactions

arXiv:2505.11260v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We analyse the metastable behaviour of the disordered Curie–Weiss–Potts (DCWP) model subject to a Glauber dynamics. The model is a randomly disordered version of the mean-field $q$-spin Potts model (CWP), where the interaction coefficients between spins are general independent random variables. These random variables are chosen to have fixed mean (for simplicity taken to be $1$) and well defined cumulant generating function, with a fixed distribution not depending on the number of particles. The system evolves as a discrete-time Markov chain with single spin flip Metropolis dynamics at finite inverse temperature $\beta$. We provide a comparison of the metastable behaviour of the CWP and DCWP models, when $N \to \infty$. First, we establish the metastability of the CWP model and, using this result, prove metastability for the DCWP model (with high probability). We then determine the ratio between the metastable transition time for the DCWP model and the corresponding time for the CWP model. Specifically, we derive the asymptotic tail behavior and moments of this ratio. Our proof combines the potential-theoretic approach to metastability with concentration of measure techniques, the latter adapted to our specific context.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Beyond External Load: Integrative Immune Monitoring Reveals Injury-Predictive Signals in the Athlete's Internal State

Abstract (already in the PDF; paste if a box is required): Injury risk prediction in elite football relies almost exclusively on external load metrics derived from GPS tracking, overlooking the molecular state of the athlete. We monitored 26 male players from FC Barcelona's first team across the 2025 calendar year, integrating GPS-derived training load with longitudinal blood-based immune monitoring (systemic inflammation and TCR-derived immune age). Immune age acceleration and inflammation were elevated in the 14 days preceding musculoskeletal injuries. A logistic regression model combining external load, inflammation, immune age acceleration, and career injury history reached an overall AUC of 0.678 and a mean per-player AUC of 0.754 (SD 0.146), improving on a GPS-only baseline of 0.541. Applied to 2026 data, the frozen model ranked players who later sustained non-contact musculoskeletal injuries high in the risk distribution. Together, our data suggest multimodal immune monitoring in elite football to reveal the athlete's internal physiological state, which carries injury-relevant information that external load alone does not capture.