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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

AI Researchers Must Help Lead Arms Control to Mitigate Military AI Risks

arXiv:2606.11533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The advancement of AI capabilities compels researchers and the public to be more aware of its potential worldwide impact. A pressing near-term concern is the regulation of military AI applications. Armament manufacturers and defense contractors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities and forging partnerships with AI companies, creating a burgeoning coalition that demands military leaders, arms control diplomacy experts, and AI researchers collaborate to ensure a safer future. While AI researchers often focus on the long-term implications of superintelligent AI, this approach may not adequately address the immediate challenges posed by AI in military applications. Success requires acknowledging and mitigating the emerging risks of frontier AI models that plan to be integrated into defense applications, like military AI systems. Arms control has reduced past catastrophic risks, so lessons learned from nuclear deterrence can guide AI safety and security research towards innovations in verification and diplomacy. AI researchers, however, must assist in leading the technical research that clearly defines and alleviates instability in military settings. Given these new responsibilities and the lack of sufficiently reliable solutions, we argue that AI researchers must take a leading role in advancing arms control research to minimize risk in military AI applications.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

SHARD: Safe and Helpful Alignment via Self-Reframing Distillation

Large language models often struggle with sensitive prompts. They may refuse outright, provide generic safety boilerplate, or fail to address the user's legitimate informational needs that can be answered safely. We introduce SHARD, a self-reframing distillation method to improve safe-helpfulness. It first rewrites sensitive prompts to surface benign intent using philosophical guidelines, then reframes its original responses into safe, more helpful ones, and finally fine-tunes the model on its self-reframed responses. Across DNA and the English subset of LINGUASAFE, SHARD improves helpfulness for most model families while preserving safety. It also remains competitive with distillation from a larger teacher model, suggesting that models can internalize safe and helpful behavior elicited from their own. Warning: This paper contains content that may be offensive or harmful.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Intrinsic 4D Gaussian Segmentation from Scene Cues

Dynamic 4D Gaussian Splatting reconstructs deforming scenes with high fidelity and is increasingly adopted as a representation for dynamic 3D scenes. Putting such a scene to use, for editing, manipulation or motion analysis, first requires segmenting it: grouping the Gaussian primitives into coherent objects. Current pipelines obtain this grouping by importing 2D masks from foundation models such as SAM and lifting or distilling them into the Gaussian representation. In dynamic scenes these masks must be generated across many frames and views, which is costly, and the resulting segmentation can depend strongly on the quality and consistency of those external masks. We ask how much object-level structure can instead be recovered from the Gaussians themselves, and propose Intrinsic-GS, a training-free, mask-free method that builds a sparse affinity graph over Gaussian primitives from appearance, orientation, scale, deformation-trajectory and non-learned rendered-boundary cues. The graph is partitioned with Leiden community detection, requiring no foundation model and no learned feature field. On the standard 4D Gaussian segmentation benchmarks, Neu3D and HyperNeRF, Intrinsic-GS recovers substantial object structure without mask supervision, reaching 0.746 mIoU on Neu3D and 0.575 on HyperNeRF; on Neu3D, a geometry-only variant reaches 0.902 mIoU, matching SAM-supervised TRASE. On HyperNeRF, Intrinsic-GS runs 12.5x faster than the mask-generation and feature-rendering stages used by mask-supervised pipelines. These results suggest that much of the segmentation signal is already encoded in the Gaussians themselves, offering a fast, mask-free direction for 3D and 4D Gaussian segmentation that may also point toward more generalizable, robust segmentation in settings where external masks are unreliable or expensive.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Traditional machine learning vs. deep learning from dynamic graph representations of proteins' 3D folds in the task of protein structure classification

arXiv:2605.29228v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Protein structure classification (PSC) uses supervised learning to predict a protein's CATH/SCOP(e) class from the protein's sequence or 3D structural feature(s). We already modeled 3D structures as (static) protein structure networks (PSNs), demonstrating the competitiveness of PSN-based features to sequence or direct (i.e. non-network) 3D structural features in the PSC task. More recently, we demonstrated the power of features extracted from dynamic PSNs over features extracted from static PSNs (and thus by transitivity over sequence and direct 3D structural features) in the same task. That dynamic PSN approach used traditional machine learning (ML), combining manual (pre-engineered) features with an off-the-shelf classifier. Here, we evaluate whether automatic deep learning (DL) from the dynamic PSNs yields improvements. Our evaluation on 72 datasets spanning ~44,000 CATH- or SCOPe-labeled dynamic PSNs reveals that in terms of PSC accuracy, traditional ML and DL are (close to) tied for a large majority of the datasets, while DL is on average 10+ times slower. We are the first to evaluate traditional ML vs. DL in the dynamic PSN-based PSC task.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

The Shrinking Lifespan of LLMs in Science

arXiv:2604.07530v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scaling laws describe how language model capabilities grow with compute and data, but say nothing about how long a model matters once released. We introduce time-to-peak and lifespan as measures of model obsolescence and use them to characterize the scientific adoption trajectories of 62 LLMs across more than 108k citing papers (2019-2025), separating active adoption from background citation to recover per-model trajectories that citation counts cannot resolve. We find that a model's longevity is shaped more by when it was released than by its characteristics: release year predicts time-to-peak and lifespan more strongly than architecture, openness, or scale. LLM adoption follows an inverted-U curve (rising after release, peaking, and then declining), but this pattern is rapidly compressing. Each successive release year is associated with a 27% shorter time-to-peak and a 23% shorter lifespan ($p < 0.001$), robust to minimum-age thresholds and controls for model size. These adoption-side dynamics are invisible to scaling laws and suggest that specialization on any single model may be a depreciating investment, with costs falling on reproducibility and migration.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Relational Structural Causal Models

arXiv:2606.14892v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: An artificial intelligence must have a model of its environment that is causal, supporting reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, and also combinatorial, supporting generalization to unseen combinations of objects. In this work, we formally study when and how such a model can be learned. We develop relational structural causal models, extending structural causal models (Pearl 2009) to settings where objects and their relations vary. First, we show how answers to not only causal but also observational queries about unseen combinations of objects can not be identified without further assumptions. To enable such identification–including in the presence of unobserved confounding–we define relational causal graphs and derive symbolic identification criteria. Finally, we propose relational neural causal models, a provably correct approach that outperforms non-relational baselines on simulated traffic scenes with varying cars, signals, and pedestrians.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Tabular Foundation Models for Clinical Survival Analysis via Survival-Aware Adaptation

arXiv:2606.12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis. While classical statistical and deep learning approaches have been widely studied, they typically require task-specific training and sufficient labeled data. Recent advances in tabular foundation models offer a new paradigm by learning general-purpose representations for structured data. However, their applicability to censored time-to-event prediction in clinical settings remains underexplored, as typical applications are restricted to discrete classification rather than survival analysis tasks. In this work, we propose a lightweight adaptation approach for applying tabular foundation models to clinical survival analysis by directly training a survival-aware head on top of the pretrained representations. We study representative architectures, including TabPFN, TabDPT, and TabICL, and adapt them using a multi-task logistic regression (MTLR) head to model right-censored time-to-event outcomes. We evaluate this approach on a diverse set of public survival benchmarks and two large-scale ICU cohorts, MIMIC-IV and eICU. Our results show that this transfer learning approach achieves competitive or superior performance compared to strong baselines. On MIMIC-IV, TabDPT-FT-MTLR reaches a C-index of 0.856, corresponding to a relative improvement of +1.4% over the best non-FM baseline (DeepSurv, 0.844) and +6.7% over the best zero-shot model (0.802). On eICU, TabICL-FT-MTLR achieves 0.797, yielding gains of +1.7% (DeepSurv, 0.784) and +6.4% (0.749), respectively. These findings highlight the importance of combining pretrained tabular representations with survival-aware objectives and suggest that tabular foundation models provide a practical and effective alternative for clinical survival prediction.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

VibeThinker-3B: Exploring the Frontier of Verifiable Reasoning in Small Language Models

This technical report introduces VibeThinker-3B, a compact dense model with 3B parameters developed to investigate how far verifiable reasoning can be pushed within a strictly small-model regime. Building upon the Spectrum-to-Signal post-training paradigm, we systematically enhance the model through an optimized pipeline that includes curriculum-based supervised fine-tuning, multi-domain reinforcement learning, and offline self-distillation. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that VibeThinker-3B achieves frontier-level performance on highly demanding verifiable tasks. Specifically, it attains a score of 94.3 on AIME26 (improving to 97.1 with claim-level test-time scaling), an 80.2 Pass@1 on LiveCodeBench v6, and exhibits strong out-of-distribution generalization with a 96.1\% acceptance rate on recent unseen LeetCode contests. This effectively places it in the performance band of first-tier reasoning systems, matching or exceeding flagship models that are orders of magnitude larger, such as DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5, and Gemini 3 Pro. Furthermore, a score of 93.4 on IFEval confirms that this extreme reasoning enhancement does not compromise strict instruction controllability. Extending our previous 1.5B work, these findings motivate the Parametric Compression-Coverage Hypothesis, which views verifiable reasoning as compressible into compact reasoning cores, while open-domain knowledge and general-purpose competence require broad parameter coverage over facts, concepts, and long-tail scenarios. This perspective suggests that compact models are not merely deployment-efficient substitutes, but a complementary path toward frontier-level performance in parameter-dense capability regimes.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

TensorKit.jl: A Julia package for large-scale tensor computations, with a hint of category theory

arXiv:2508.10076v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: TensorKit$.$jl is a Julia-based software package for tensor computations, especially focusing on tensors with internal symmetries. This paper introduces the design philosophy, core functionalities, and distinctive features, including how to handle abelian, non-abelian, and anyonic symmetries through the ``TensorMap'' type. We highlight the software's flexibility, performance, and its capability to extend to new tensor types and symmetries, illustrating its practical applications through select case studies.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Simple analytical flux-tuned iSWAP pulses for leakage suppression

arXiv:2606.13052v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fast, high-fidelity two-qubit gates are a key requirement for fault-tolerant quantum computation. Tunable coupler architectures provide a flexible approach for implementing entangling gates through flux control with large on-off ratios, but fast flux modulation can induce diabatic transitions and population leakage to non-computational states, limiting gate performance. Here we present an analytical flux control method enabling derivative removal by adiabatic gate ($\Phi$-DRAG) for suppressing leakage in flux tunable two-qubit gates. We show that $\Phi$-DRAG differs fundamentally from conventional microwave implementations and derive modified flux modulation protocols that suppress leakage below $10^{-4}$ for fast entangling gates. The method remains effective across a range of asymmetry between qubit anharmonicities and different circuit parameters, enabling high-fidelity two-qubit gates within the fifteen nanosecond range.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Guava: An Effective and Universal Harness for Embodied Manipulation

arXiv:2606.18363v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Language models trained on large-scale vision-language data have demonstrated strong potential for embodied agents. Harnessing models through embodied tools use offers a promising alternative to end-to-end vision-language-action systems by combining high-level reasoning with external modules for perception, planning, and control. However, it remains unclear what makes an effective harness for embodied manipulation, and to what extent such a harness can unlock embodied capabilities in a wide range of reasoning models. In this work, we present Guava, a harness framework for embodied tool use developed through systematic exploration of the design space of agent workflows, action spaces, and observation spaces. Our study identifies three key ingredients for effective embodied agents: iterative perception-reasoning-action loops, semantic action abstractions, and multimodal observations. To understand whether these design principles are universal even to small models, we develop an end-to-end training pipeline that distills embodied manipulation capabilities into a 4B open-source model using fewer than 2K trajectories collected entirely in simulation. Experimental results in both simulation and real-world environments show performance comparable to frontier proprietary models while exhibiting strong generalization to unseen objects, novel instructions, and long-horizon tasks. Results suggest that a well-designed harness can serve as a scalable, model-agnostic interface for embodied manipulation, enabling strong emergent embodied capabilities in compact open-source models with minimal training data.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Communication-Efficient Verifiable Attention for LLM Inference

arXiv:2606.16352v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Computation integrity of remote large language model (LLM) serving can be questionable. For conventional deep neural networks (DNNs), the existing TEE-shielded DNN partitioning (TSDP) approach uses Trusted Execution Environment (TEE) to compute non-linear components and verify the integrity of linear components offloaded to an untrusted GPU. However, directly applying TSDP to Transformer-based LLMs incurs significant TEE computation and TEE-GPU communication overhead. This paper presents Communication-efficient TEE-GPU Attention (\textsc{VeriAttn}) for accelerating verifiable LLM inference. \textsc{VeriAttn} offloads both linear and non-linear computations of attention to the GPU, while TEE performs verification. Moreover, for prefill, \textsc{VeriAttn} uses a two-level pipeline to overlap data movement, TEE pre-/post-processing, and GPU computation. For decoding, when the key-value cache exceeds available GPU memory, \textsc{VeriAttn} partitions attention across TEE and GPU to reduce repeated key-value transfers. Evaluation on an Intel TDX platform shows that \textsc{VeriAttn} achieves 2.60-3.38$\times$ and 3.86-5.42$\times$ acceleration over TSDP for 6k-token prompts and 10k-token outputs during prefill and decoding, respectively.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

GameCraft-Bench: Can Agents Build Playable Games End-to-End in a Real Game Engine?

Game generation is an emerging application of coding agents, requiring models to transform natural-language specifications into playable interactive systems. Unlike traditional coding tasks, game generation takes place within a game engine, where scripts, scenes, assets, rendering, and runtime interactions must jointly produce coherent gameplay. We formalize end-to-end game generation as the problem of producing a complete game artifact that realizes a specification through observable player-game interaction in a target environment. We argue that evaluating this setting requires three desiderata: Engine Grounding, Artifact Completeness, and Interactive Verification. We propose an interaction-grounded evaluation framework that assesses executable gameplay through replayed demonstrations and rubric-guided multimodal judging. We instantiate this framework as GameCraft-Bench, a benchmark comprising 140 Godot tasks across 15 game families. Evaluations of frontier coding agents show that end-to-end game generation remains highly challenging: the strongest agent achieves only 41.46%, and most agents score below 40%. Further analysis reveals that while agents often implement recognizable mechanics, they struggle to deliver complete games with sufficient content, functional visual feedback, and coherent presentation. See https://tongxuluo.github.io/gamecraft-bench-website for demos, code, and data.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference

arXiv:2606.10376v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cancer treatment is at the core a sequential decision-making problem with partial observability, latent patient heterogeneity, and explicit constraints on the budget for medical measurements. Unlike standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches that control state trajectories, cancer treatments permanently modify patients' transition dynamics, changing how states evolve over time. We model cancer treatment as a belief-space planning problem using active inference, deriving an expected free-energy objective that unifies goal-directed control and information acquisition under measurement budgets without. We implement this framework using real clinical cancer data from the AACR Project GENIE Biopharma Collaborative dataset. Results on clinical data demonstrate a simultaneous patient categorization and high treatment efficacy, under real measurement and treatment constraints.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Instability of a nonlinear oscillator with small friction and small additive noise

arXiv:2606.11389v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Let $\lambda = \lambda(\beta,\sigma,a,b)$ denote the top Lyapunov exponent for the linearization along trajectories of the noisy damped non-linear oscillator $\ddot{x}+\beta \dot{x} + ax+bx^3 = \sigma \dot{W}_t$, where $a$, $b$ and $\beta$ are all positive and $\sigma \neq 0$. In 2004 Arnold, Imkeller and Sri Namachchivaya stated without proof that $\lambda(\varepsilon^2 \beta,\varepsilon \sigma,a,b) \sim \overline{\lambda} \varepsilon^{2/3}$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$ with $\overline{\lambda} > 0$. This paper contains a proof of this assertion.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Lost in a Single Vector: Improving Long-Document Retrieval with Chunk Evidence Aggregation

Dense retrieval ranks one query vector against one document vector. On long documents, this interface can fail when a short but decisive span is weakened during document encoding before ranking. We study this failure mode as document-side early compression and introduce the Evidence Dilution Index (EDI) to measure how far a document-level representation falls below the strongest chunk-level evidence within the same gold document. Guided by this view, we propose DICE (Document Inference via Chunk Evidence), a training-free document-side strategy that splits documents into chunks, encodes them independently with a frozen model, and aggregates them back into a single vector while preserving the standard one-query-one-document interface. On LongEmbed, DICE improves retrieval across four backbones, with the largest gains on slices beyond 4k tokens: for Dream, Passkey >4k rises from 30.0 to 90.0 and Needle >4k from 23.3 to 74.0. Across 12,779 filtered samples, DICE yields lower EDI than the single-vector baseline in 92.8% of cases. These results establish document-level encoding as a practical and underexplored lever for long-document retrieval.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Geometrical fairness in graph neural networks

arXiv:2606.17684v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Graph-based learning methods have become increasingly prominent due to their strong performance across diverse applications. Among these, recent frameworks grounded in diffusion processes provide a unifying perspective that extends traditional graph neural network formulations while addressing limitations of standard message-passing mechanisms. Despite these advances, concerns remain regarding the fairness of such models, as they may propagate or amplify biases present in the data. In this work, we introduce a fairness-aware adaptation of graph-based diffusion by modifying the underlying Laplacian operator. Our approach incorporates multiple complementary transformations, including subspace projections, spectral adjustments, and frequency-based filtering, to mitigate bias-related components. Leveraging the intrinsic smoothing properties of graph diffusion, we provide a principled analysis of the resulting behavior and establish theoretical insights into fairness properties. We evaluate the proposed framework on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that it achieves competitive performance while improving fairness metrics with limited additional computational cost.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Learning in Matching Games with Bandit Feedback

arXiv:2506.03802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a learning problem in a generalized two-sided matching market, where agents select actions to interact with their match. Specifically, we consider a setting in which matched agents engage in zero-sum games with initially unknown payoff matrices, and we investigate whether a centralized procedure can learn an equilibrium from bandit feedback. We adopt the solution concept of a matching equilibrium, where a matching \( \mathfrak{m} \) and a set of agent strategies \( X \) form an equilibrium if no agent has an incentive to deviate from \( (\mathfrak{m}, X) \). To quantify deviations of a candidate solution \( (\mathfrak{m}, X) \) from the equilibrium \( (\mathfrak{m}^\star, X^\star) \), we introduce the notion of matching instability, which serves as a regret measure for the learning problem. We propose a UCB-based algorithm in which agents form preferences and select actions according to optimistic estimates of the payoffs. Our analysis establishes a sublinear, instance-independent regret upper bound, further supported by empirical evidence.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

MiniFool – Physics-Constraint-Aware Minimizer-Based Adversarial Attacks in Deep Neural Networks

arXiv:2511.01352v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper, we present a new algorithm, MiniFool, that implements physics-inspired adversarial attacks for testing neural network-based classification tasks in particle and astroparticle physics. While we initially developed the algorithm for the search for astrophysical tau neutrinos with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, we apply it to further data from other science domains, thus demonstrating its general applicability. Here, we apply the algorithm to the well-known MNIST data set and furthermore, to Open Data data from the CMS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The algorithm is based on minimizing a cost function that combines a $\chi^2$ based test-statistic with the deviation from the desired target score. The test statistic quantifies the probability of the perturbations applied to the data based on the experimental uncertainties. For our studied use cases, we find that the likelihood of a flipped classification differs for both the initially correctly and incorrectly classified events. When testing changes of the classifications as a function of an attack parameter that scales the experimental uncertainties, the robustness of the network decision can be quantified. Furthermore, this allows testing the robustness of the classification of unlabeled experimental data.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

NEST3D: A High-Resolution Multimodal Dataset of Sociable Weaver Tree Nests

Sociable weaver nests function as complex ecological structures offering thermoregulatory microhabitats and sustaining diverse species; however, datasets used in prior studies lack fine-grained 3D structural detail. Producing usable and accurate 3D weaver nest data is challenging due to their irregular geometry and integration with complex host vegetation. We bridge this gap with an open-access, 1.4 TB multimodal drone dataset of 104 nest-bearing trees, comprising 27,945 RGB images, 111,780 multispectral images, approximately 781 million 3D points, and expert-annotated semantic segmentation labels. We benchmark semantic segmentation using KPConv, RandLA-Net, and Point Transformer V3, with PT-v3 achieving an mIoU of 86.35% on the test set. While the results demonstrate strong performance for transformer-based and point-wise methods, they also highlight architecture-dependent challenges, particularly for convolution-based approaches such as KPConv. By uniquely combining spectral, spatial, and structural information, the presented dataset advances 3D reconstruction, segmentation, and classification algorithms, enabling ecological applications from nest volume estimation to species conservation, and serves as a demanding benchmark that exposes architecture-dependent performance under extreme class imbalance.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Critical Percolation as a Synthetic Data Model for Interpretability

arXiv:2606.20347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural networks learn features that reflect the hierarchical, multi-scale structure of natural data. Synthetic datasets used to evaluate interpretability methods typically lack this structure, limiting their value as realistic toy models. To close this gap, we introduce a family of synthetic datasets consisting of hierarchical functions defined on critical mean-field percolation clusters embedded in a high-dimensional data space. The percolation data consists of sparse, low-dimensional fractal clusters with a power-law size distribution. Latent variables modeling a taxonomic hierarchy generate each data point's target value. The data model is analytically tractable with known critical exponents that fix its properties without requiring hyperparameter tuning. We leverage a mapping between percolation clusters, random trees, and additive coalescence to propose an almost linear-time algorithm to jointly sample a random tree and its hierarchical latent decomposition, enabling data generation at arbitrary scale. Using probing experiments, we find that the model's ground-truth latent variables can be linearly decoded from neural network activations. Together, sparsity, self-similarity, power-law statistics, and analytical tractability make critical percolation a principled testbed for interpretability research.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

MentalMARBERT: Domain-Adaptive Pre-training and Two-Stage Fine-Tuning for Arabic Mental Health Disorders Detection

Detecting mental health disorders from Arabic social media text remains challenging due to dialectal variation, informal language, limited high-quality annotated resources, and severe class imbalance. While English mental health natural language processing (NLP) has progressed substantially, Arabic multi-class disorder classification remains insufficiently studied. This study proposes a two-phase framework for Arabic mental health text classification. In phase 1, three Arabic pre-trained language models, AraBERT, CAMeLBERT, and MARBERT, undergo Domain-Adaptive and Task-Adaptive Pretraining (DAPT and TAPT) using a large-scale corpus of unlabeled Arabic mental health tweets. The adapted models are evaluated under a unified protocol to identify the most effective backbone model. In phase 2, the selected model is assessed across four configurations combining single-stage and hierarchical two-stage classification architectures with full fine-tuning and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). To support this study, we constructed a novel annotated Arabic mental health dataset comprising 50,670 tweets across six categories, with strong inter annotator agreement (Krippendorff's Alpha = 0.733, average pairwise agreement = 0.797). Experimental results show that the domain-adapted MARBERT (MentalMARBERT) achieves statistically significant improvements over baseline models in both accuracy and macro-F1. The hierarchical two-stage architecture combined with full fine-tuning achieves the best overall performance, reaching a macro-F1 of 0.861 and an accuracy of 0.877. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of domain-specific adaptive pretraining and hierarchical classification for Arabic mental health disorder detection.

23.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-09

Prediction of hospitalisation in young children with pneumonia in Malawi: A machine learning-based approach

by Patrick Staunton, Mohammad Adib Makrooni, Master Chisale, Billy Nyambolo, Joseph Wu, Damien McCarthy, Mark Ledwidge, Yasir Bin Nisar, Chris Watson, Balwani Mbakaya, Cathal Seoighe, Joe Gallagher Background Globally, pneumonia remains the single biggest cause of mortality in children under 5 years of age. This study sought to train and test a prediction model for hospitalisation within 7 days after initial presentation in 2- to 59-month-old Malawian children with WHO-defined pneumonia in primary care and compare its performance to existing risk prediction models. Methods and findings BIOTOPE is a cohort study of children with pneumonia in a primary healthcare setting in Malawi. The training cohort involved nine primary care centres and the testing cohort involved two primary care centres in Northern Malawi. The training cohort was recruited between December 2022 and April 2023 while the testing cohort was recruited in 2016. Participants were consecutive children aged 2–59 months presenting with cough and/or difficulty breathing and who were diagnosed as WHO-defined pneumonia in primary care of any severity. The training cohort was used to train and validate a machine learning model with a prespecified primary outcome defined as hospitalisation and/or death within 7 days as the outcome. This model was then further evaluated in the testing cohort.Median age was 15 months (interquartile range 8−27) in the training and 17 months (interquartile range 9−29) in the external testing cohort (52.1% and 54.4% male, respectively). Hospitalisation occurred in 14.3% (294) of the training cohort and 12.1% (55) of the testing cohort. There was one death in the training cohort only. WHO danger signs were present in 17.6% (360) and 15.9% (70) of children in the training and testing cohorts, respectively. The optimal machine learning model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic and precision recall curves of 0.87 and 0.57, respectively, in the testing cohort outperforming existing risk prediction models; furthermore, this model produced an expected calibration error of 0.16 (a logistic regression model using severity status as the response variable and the log odds of the machine learning model’s calibrated probabilities produced an intercept estimate of −0.32 and a slope estimate of 1.13). Key limitations include the use of hospitalisation and/or death as a severity outcome, which may reflect health system factors rather than true disease severity, that mortality-based comparisons were not possible due to low mortality in these primary care cohorts, and that comparator tools were developed for hospital populations rather than primary care populations. Conclusion This machine learning score outperformed traditional pneumonia risk scores in predicting hospitalisation within 7 days in Malawian children presenting to primary care. Traditional pneumonia risk scores diminish in performance when externally applied to new datasets suggesting they may not generalise well beyond their original derivation settings. Mortality-related findings are not applicable as there was only one death in this cohort. Overall these findings support the potential of machine learning to meaningfully improve early identification of children at risk of severe pneumonia in low-resource primary care settings. Further external validation and clinical impact studies are needed to confirm these results.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A Concavity Theorem for the Parisi PDE

Authors:

arXiv:2606.15432v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that the map sending the diffusion profile to the solution of a time-changed Parisi PDE evaluated at time-space $(0,0)$ is concave. This result strengthens the raywise concavity result proven by Auffinger and Chen (2016). As an application, for the balanced multispecies Ising spin glasses, the lower bound of Bates and Sohn (2025) matches the Hopf-type upper bound given by the Hamilton–Jacobi framework developed by Mourrat, Chen and Xia.