A Bayesian Proof and Interpretation of Talagrand's Majorizing Measure Theorem

arXiv:2605.30321v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this paper, we give a short Bayesian proof of Talagrand's celebrated majorizing-measure theorem (MMT). While the upper-bound direction of MMT follows relatively directly from standard arguments, the lower-bound direction is widely regarded as the more difficult part and has received several distinct proofs. Unlike previous approaches, our proof does not rely on existing Gaussian processes lower bounds techniques, nor on combinatorial, geometric, or coding-theoretic constructions. Instead, we derive the lower bound from two area identities for Gaussian additive models. We show that the Gaussian width of a finite set is the integrated mean-squared error of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), while the integrated minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) is larger than the Fernique-Talagrand functional, up to a universal constant. Simply then comparing the MLE with Bayes-optimal estimation, combined with a recent duality minimax argument by Liu, gives a direct proof of the hard direction of MMT.