Finite-Shot Sensitivity for Moment Estimation in Quantum Metrology

arXiv:2606.25920v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The quantum Cramér-Rao bound can be saturated only asymptotically and does not specify how many measurements are needed for a concrete estimator to approach it. We develop a finite-measurement theory for method-of-moments estimation, where the parameter is inferred from the sample mean of a calibrating observable rather than from the full likelihood. For general quantum statistical models, the expansion is written in terms of the calibration curve and the central moments of the measured observable. Nonlinear calibration curves make the usual moment estimator biased at finite measurement number; we construct a bias-corrected estimator with bias $O(\nu^{-3})$. This gives sensitivity corrections beyond the leading error-propagation term of the chosen moment protocol. We identify a general density-matrix condition under which the full $1/\nu^2$ correction vanishes. In unitary examples, the leading residual correction appears at order $1/\nu^3$, is governed by calibration curvature, and can be reduced or cancelled by higher-rank components of the same measured observable. The resulting thresholds quantify how many measurements are needed before the asymptotic sensitivity of a moment-estimation protocol is operationally visible.