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medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23 00:00 DOI: HASH:1179c8614c164c0b59222791d537a450

A pharmacometric grey zone reconciles high metronidazole resistance rates with bismuth quadruple therapy efficacy in Helicobacter pylori

Abstract

Summary Background Metronidazole (MET) resistance in Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) exceeds 50-60% globally, yet MET-containing bismuth quadruple therapy (BQT) achieves &gt90% eradication in MET-resistant infections. We hypothesise this discordance stems from a structural limitation of two-fold dilution: a pharmacometric grey zone between the 128 and 256 &microg/mL breakpoints where treatable isolates are systematically misclassified as high-level resistance. Methods In a real-world cohort of 4610 treatment-na&iumlve children (2019-2024), checkerboard assays determined the bismuth-MET synergy factor (SF). Population PK/PD modelling simulated gastric MET exposure (AUC

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