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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Developmental Associations Linking Childhood Trauma and Early Cannabis Use to Adolescent DNA Methylation and Psychotic-Like Experiences

Background. Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) index early risk for psychotic disorders and are consistently associated with childhood trauma, yet underlying biological mechanisms remain poorly understood. DNA methylation (DNAm) may capture the biological embedding of early adversity, while adolescent exposures such as cannabis use may modify these processes. We examined epigenome-wide associations of childhood trauma and PLEs, tested the moderating role of early cannabis use, and evaluated DNAm as a potential mediator. Methods. We analysed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK population-based birth cohort. Childhood trauma was assessed prospectively and retrospectively. Epigenome-wide DNAm was measured in peripheral blood at ~17 years using the Illumina 450K array, and PLEs were assessed at 18 using a structured interview. Epigenome-wide association studies were conducted for trauma-DNAm and DNAm-PLEs associations in the final sample (n = 1,457), adjusting for demographic, biological, and technical covariates. Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified using DMRff, followed by functional enrichment analyses. Cannabis use at 15.5 was modelled as a moderator with multiple imputation for missing data. Mediation was tested using the Divide-Aggregate Composite-null Test (DACT). Results. Childhood trauma was associated with widespread DNAm differences, primarily at the regional level, with enrichment in pathways related to cellular stress responses. In contrast, DNAm associated with PLEs was more limited and implicated loci involved in epigenetic regulatory processes. These signatures were largely distinct, and there was no evidence supporting mediation after multiple testing correction. Incorporating cannabis use altered the pattern and extent of DNAm associations, with stronger and more significant signals observed at both CpG and regional levels, although these did not translate into evidence of mediation. Conclusion. Childhood trauma and PLEs show distinct DNAm signatures in adolescence, with trauma-related DNAm reflecting broad stress-related processes and PLE-associated DNAm implicating regulatory mechanisms. We found little evidence that DNAm mediates the trauma-PLE association. Instead, adolescent exposures, particularly cannabis use, may distinctly influence trauma-related epigenetic variation with limited detectable downstream effects on PLEs. These findings support a context-dependent model of epigenetic risk and highlight the need for larger longitudinal studies to clarify causal pathways linking early adversity to psychosis.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Referral pathways, ETAT triage acuity, and inpatient outcomes among children presenting to a national tertiary paediatric emergency unit in Ghana: a prospective cohort study

Emergency referral systems in sub-Saharan Africa are fragmented, and children reaching tertiary facilities through different referral pathways often arrive in advanced clinical states. Prospective data simultaneously characterising referral patterns, triage acuity at presentation, diagnostic case mix, and inpatient mortality at a national tertiary paediatric emergency unit are lacking from West Africa. This prospective cohort study enrolled 675 consecutively presenting children aged one month to 12 years at the Paediatric Emergency Unit of Korle Bu Teaching Hospital, Accra, Ghana, from February to December 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause inpatient mortality. Key variables collected included referral status and facility tier, Emergency Triage Assessment and Treatment (ETAT) triage category, ICD-10 diagnostic classification, Oyedeji socioeconomic classification, and time from symptom onset to PEU registration. Crude odds ratios were computed for all candidate predictors. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted using complete case analysis (n = 613). Of 675 children, 63.0% (n = 425) were referred from another health facility; referred children had higher ETAT emergency triage category rates than self-presenting children (32.7% vs 27.6%, p < 0.001). Overall inpatient mortality was 9.9% (67/675). Mortality varied by referral source: 16.7% among secondary/regional hospital referrals, 11.0% among lower-tier facility referrals (district, municipal, CHAG, polyclinic, private, health centre, and maternity home facilities combined, n = 356), 7.6% among self-presenting children, and 7.4% among tertiary referrals. Overall, 30.8% of children were classified as ETAT emergencies on arrival, with case fatility rate of 21.6%. The three most common diagnostic domains were respiratory conditions (17.2%), blood and haematological disorders (17.0%), and digestive presentations (16.4%). Inpatient mortality was highest in neoplastic disease (33.3%, n = 30) and circulatory presentations (31.0%, n = 29). In the primary multivariable analysis (n = 613, 51 events; events-per-variable ratio 4.2), no referral tier was independently associated with inpatient mortality after adjustment. Referral from secondary/regional hospitals showed a borderline non-significant association (adjusted odds ratio 3.09, 95% CI 0.96 to 9.90, p = 0.058). School going children (60-119 months) had higher odds of inpatient death than infants (adjusted odds ratio 5.56, 95% CI 1.16 to 26.53, p = 0.032), as did adolescents (adjusted odds ratio 10.01, 95% CI 2.15 to 46.69, p = 0.003). ETAT emergency category and lower socioeconomic status were not independently significant in this model. A pre-specified sensitivity analysis using the full analytic cohort (n = 674, events-per-variable ratio 6.7) with collapsed referral categories did not confirm any referral tier association; ETAT emergency category and lower SES were independently associated in the sensitivity model. All multivariable estimates should be regarded as exploratory. This prospective cohort provides simultaneous characterisation of referral patterns, ETAT triage acuity, diagnostic case mix, and inpatient mortality at a national tertiary paediatric emergency unit in West Africa. The referral-mortality gradient and high ETAT emergency category proportion document the severity of illness arriving through different referral pathways at this facility. The association between secondary/regional hospital referral and inpatient mortality is hypothesis-generating and requires replication in an adequately powered multicentre study before any service-level conclusions can be drawn.

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Ergodicity for stochastic 2D Boussinesq equations with a highly degenerate pure jump Levy noise

arXiv:2503.18045v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This study aims to analyze the ergodicity for stochastic 2D Boussinesq equations and explore the impact of a highly degenerate pure jump L\'{e}vy noise acting only in the temperature equation, where this noise could appear on only a few Fourier modes. By leveraging the equi-continuity of the semigroup established through Malliavin calculus and an analysis of stochastic calculus, together with the weak irreducibility of the solution process, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the invariant measure. Moreover, we overcome the main challenge of establishing time asymptotic smoothing properties of the Markovian dynamics corresponding to this system by conducting spectral analysis of the Malliavin covariance matrix.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

VISTA: Video Interaction Spatio-Temporal Analysis Benchmark

Existing benchmarks for Vision-Language Models (VLMs) primarily evaluate spatio-temporal understanding on simple single-action videos, closed attribute sets and restricted entity types, failing to capture the freeform, multi-action interactions between diverse entities which characterize real-world video understanding. Furthermore, the lack of a systematic framework for analyzing model failures across complementary spatio-temporal axes hinders comprehensive evaluation. To address these gaps, we introduce VISTA, a Video Interaction Spatio-Temporal Analysis benchmark designed for open-set, multi-entity and multi-action spatio-temporal understanding in VLMs. VISTA decomposes videos into interpretable entities, their associated actions, and relational dynamics, enabling multi-axis diagnostics and unified assessment of relational, spatial, and temporal understanding. Our benchmark integrates multiple datasets into a single interaction-aware taxonomy and comprises ~12K curated video-query pairs spanning diverse scenes and complexities. We systematically evaluate 11 state-of-the-art VLMs on VISTA, and break down aggregate performance across our taxonomy to reveal shortcomings and pronounced spatio-temporal biases obscured by traditional metrics. By providing detailed, taxonomy-driven diagnostics on a challenging dataset, VISTA offers a nuanced framework to guide advances in model design, pretraining strategies, and evaluation protocols. Overall, VISTA is the first, large-scale, interaction-aware diagnostic benchmark for spatio-temporal understanding in VLMs.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Filum Terminale Diameter on Routine Pediatric MRI: A Large-Cohort Clinical Reference in 3,406 Children and the Age-Dependent Meaning of the 2-mm Thickened-Filum Threshold

Background. A filum diameter >2 mm is the conventional MRI threshold for a thickened filum, but it derives from small, mostly adult series showing no age dependence; whether one cutoff suits all of childhood is untested. Objective. To build an age-specific filum-diameter reference on routine pediatric MRI and test, adjusting for image resolution, whether the 2-mm threshold is age-stationary. Materials and methods. In this retrospective study an nnU-Net tracer measured the maximal filum diameter on consecutive lumbosacral MRI; versus manual tracing it showed negligible bias but moderate single-measure agreement. After excluding report-confirmed fatty filum, lipoma, or tethered cord, the proportion >2 mm was analysed within one acquisition protocol and by logistic regression adjusting for voxel size and slice thickness. Results. Of 7,245 examinations, 3,869 (53%) were traceable; untraced ones were younger (median 0.75 vs 2.0 years). The presumed-normal cohort had median diameter 1.48 mm. At matched resolution, 2 mm marked the 94th percentile in infants (5.6% exceeded it) but the 83rd by 3-6 years (17.4%); the age effect persisted after adjusting for voxel size and slice thickness (3-6 years vs infants, adjusted OR 4.7; P < .001). Conclusion. Filum diameter clusters near 1.5 mm, and the fixed 2-mm cutoff flags ~5% of infants but ~17% of preschoolers. Caliber should be judged against an age-specific clinical reference, not one fixed cutoff; a thick filum is not itself a diagnosis of tethered cord.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

COGNITION: From Evaluation to Defense against Multimodal LLM CAPTCHA Solvers

arXiv:2512.02318v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper studies how multimodal large language models (MLLMs) undermine the security guarantees of visual CAPTCHA. We identify the attack surface where an adversary can cheaply automate CAPTCHA solving using off-the-shelf models. We evaluate 7 representative MLLMs on 18 real-world CAPTCHA task types, measuring single-shot accuracy, success under limited retries, end-to-end latency, and per-solve cost. We further validate our findings through a supplemental external dataset and an adaptive-attacker setting with session memory, while also analyzing the impact of task-specific prompt engineering and few-shot demonstrations on solver effectiveness. We reveal that MLLMs can reliably solve recognition-oriented and low-interaction CAPTCHA tasks at human-like cost and latency, whereas tasks requiring fine-grained localization, multi-step spatial reasoning, or cross-frame consistency remain significantly harder for current models. By examining the reasoning traces of such MLLMs, we investigate the underlying mechanisms of why models succeed/fail on specific CAPTCHA puzzles and use these insights to derive defense-oriented guidelines for selecting and strengthening CAPTCHA tasks. To validate these principles, we present a proof-of-concept by hardening a vulnerable CAPTCHA type using our guidelines. We demonstrate that incorporating fine-grained localization and implicit counting reduces the success rate of state-of-the-art MLLMs from over 95\% to 0\%, confirming that structural changes can effectively mitigate the threat. We conclude by emphasizing the urgent need for CAPTCHA redesign as MLLM capabilities increasingly threaten existing defenses. Code Availability (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20406852).

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Mapping Geopolitical Bias in 11 Large Language Models: A Bilingual, Dual-Framing Analysis of U.S.-China Tensions

Large language models are how hundreds of millions of people now encounter contested political questions, raising a subtle measurement problem: a model that simply agrees with whatever it is told can masquerade as biased, contaminating any claim that models hold political opinions. We address this by importing balanced keying from survey psychometrics, posing each proposition and its swapped reverse and signing the response so acquiescence cancels and genuine conviction accumulates. The result is a reproducible, quantitative instrument that maps geopolitical stance across 11 models and 2 languages (19,712 responses). Developer origin, query language and issue domain emerge as three near-equal, additive factors; every model, including those built in the United States, leans more Pro-China in Mandarin; and two models with identical agreement bias are told apart, one neutral, one biased. We release it as an open, interactive tool that extends to any contested-opinion domain.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

First to reach $n$ game

arXiv:2506.08782v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider a game with two players, consisting of a number of rounds, where the first player to win $n$ rounds becomes the overall winner. Who wins each individual round is governed by a certain urn having two types of balls (type 1 and type 2). At each round, we randomly pick a ball from the urn, and its type determines which of the two players wins. We study the game under three regimes. In the first and the third regimes, a ball is taken without replacement, whilst in the second regime, it is returned to the urn with one more ball of the same colour. We study the properties of the random variables equal to the properly defined overall net profits of the players, and the results are drastically different in all three regimes.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Towards Truly Multilingual ASR: Generalizing Code-Switching ASR to Unseen Language Pairs

Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) has become a key technology for human–AI interaction. However, code-switching ASR (CS-ASR) remains particularly challenging due to the severe scarcity of multilingual CS speech resources across diverse language pairs. Existing approaches primarily improve CS-ASR performance through synthetic CS speech generation or pair-specific fine-tuning on limited bilingual datasets. Nevertheless, these approaches face an inherent scalability limitation, as support for CS must be developed separately for language pairs whose number grows combinatorially with the number of supported languages. In this work, we investigate whether CS capabilities learned from a limited set of seen language pairs can generalize to unseen language pairs through model merging and domain generalization methods. Our experiments show that merged bilingual CS-ASR models modestly generalize to unseen language pairs, suggesting limited transfer of bilingual CS capabilities across language pairs.

10.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-15

SMS: Symmetric Mediation Statistics for Powerful High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis

Background: Mediation analysis of high-dimensional features, particularly molecular-level omics features, provides important opportunities to uncover biological mechanisms underlying human health and disease. However, two central statistical challenges remain: testing the composite-null hypothesis and maintaining power when the exposure-mediator and mediator-outcome associations differ substantially in statistical significance. Existing methods typically rely on accurate estimation of the proportions of the three null types or on the maximum of the two association p-values, and may not always control the FDR well and may have limited power under imbalanced significance. Methods: We propose SMS, a new statistical framework based on symmetric mediation statistics. By exploiting symmetry, SMS calibrates the composite null distribution as a whole for FDR control. It also allows flexible combinations of the two association p-values, including the maximum, and then enables construction of an omnibus test. Moreover, it permits direct use of effect-size estimates, bypassing the need to compute p-values. Results: SMS controlled the FDR across a wide range of simulation scenarios while achieving a substantial sensitivity gain, often around 20 percentage points, over existing methods including HDMT, DACT, and DEI-B. Applications to a metabolomics dataset and a DNA methylation dataset further corroborated these findings. Notably, SMS discovered five plausible mediators in the metabolomics dataset that were missed by all existing methods considered.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A polarity-aware multi-relational model for the signed interaction prediction in biological networks

arXiv:2407.07357v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predicting signed interactions in biological networks is crucial for understanding drug mechanisms and facilitating drug repurposing. While deep graph models have demonstrated success in modeling complex biological systems, existing approaches often fail to distinguish between positive and negative interactions, limiting their utility for precise pharmacological predictions. In this study, we propose a novel deep graph model, PAMR (polarity-aware multi-relational model), designed to predict both polar (e.g., activation, inhibition) and non-polar (e.g., binding, affect) chemical-gene interactions. Our model integrates graph convolutional networks with tensor decomposition to enhance feature representation and incorporates a conflict-aware sampling strategy to resolve polarity ambiguities. We introduce new evaluation metrics, polarity discrimination score (PDS) and CP@100, to assess the model's ability to differentiate interaction types. Experimental results demonstrate that PAMR outperforms baseline models, achieving superior classification accuracy and improved discrimination of polar edges. Specifically, PAMR-CL attains a Macro AUROC of 0.9072 and CP@100 of 0.974, surpassing RGCN, GraphSAGE, TransE, and BioNet baselines. A case study on nicotine further identifies two novel chemical-gene suppression links, S100A6 and SPP1, that are corroborated by independent experimental literature. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of subgraph components on predictive performance, revealing that additional network structures do not always enhance accuracy. These findings highlight the importance of polarity-aware modeling in drug discovery and network pharmacology, providing a scalable computational framework for polarity-aware chemical-gene interaction prediction and network pharmacology analysis.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Latent space mapping of interpretable structural coordinates from stochastic single-molecule signals

arXiv:2606.16950v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Nanopores are versatile single-molecular sensors, but their utility is fundamentally constrained by stochastic translocation dynamics warping any encoded information. We resolve it by shifting from time-domain analysis to a learned latent-space mapping via a contrastive encoder trained exclusively on simulated signals from a physics-informed model. This encoder maps solid-state nanopore signals of engineered DNA barcodes into an interpretable molecular coordinate system. The learned representation is responsive to structural barcode parameters while remaining invariant to acquisition conditions and translocation conformation, allowing data pooling across devices. Molecule identification requires a single pass through the encoder, reducing computational cost by three orders of magnitude relative to alignment-based methods. We experimentally validate through mixture quantification, rare-variant detection, consensus barcode reconstruction, and real-time signal acquisition. This shift from temporal analysis to mapping structural coordinates into a latent space changes the paradigm behind analyzing stochastic sensor signals by linking classification to interpretable encoded molecular information.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

When Does Trajectory-Level Supervision Permit Efficient Offline Reinforcement Learning?

arXiv:2606.18531v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline reinforcement learning is typically analyzed under process-level reward supervision, yet many sequential decision datasets record only trajectory-level outcomes. We develop a statistical theory for offline policy optimization from such outcome-level supervision. We first study the canonical setting where the target remains the expected cumulative reward, but each offline trajectory provides only a scalar label whose conditional mean is the cumulative return. We propose OPAC, a pessimistic actor-critic algorithm that learns a latent reward model and optimizes a policy from trajectory-level labels. We prove a high-probability guarantee of order $\widetilde O(H^2\sqrt{C_{sa}(\pi^\star)/n})$ and a matching lower bound, characterizing the sharp statistical cost of replacing process-level rewards with one trajectory-level label. We then extend the principle to preference-based feedback, preserving the leading horizon and concentrability dependence up to preference-model constants. Finally, we study generalized outcome-based offline RL, where both the supervision and the objective are trajectory-level quantities induced by a nonlinear aggregation of latent per-step rewards. This problem is not learnable in general: for all-success objectives, any offline learner may require $\Omega(2^H)$ trajectories even with deterministic transitions and constant concentrability. We then identify a tractable regime through two structural coefficients, $\kappa_\mu(\sigma)$ and $\chi_\mu(\sigma)$, capturing information loss in outcome aggregation and generalized Bellman updates, under which generalized OPAC achieves polynomial sample complexity. Together, our results delineate when outcome-level supervision enables sample-efficient offline control and when missing process-level rewards create fundamental statistical barriers.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Towards a future space-based, highly scalable AI infrastructure system design

arXiv:2511.19468v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: If AI is a foundational general-purpose technology, we should anticipate that demand for AI compute – and energy – will continue to grow. The Sun is by far the largest energy source in our solar system, and thus it warrants consideration how future AI infrastructure could most efficiently tap into that power. This work explores a scalable compute system for machine learning in space, using fleets of satellites equipped with solar arrays, inter-satellite links using free-space optics, and Google tensor processing unit (TPU) accelerator chips. To facilitate high-bandwidth, low-latency inter-satellite communication, the satellites would be flown in close proximity. We illustrate the basic approach to formation flight via an 81-satellite cluster of 1 km radius, and describe an approach for using high-precision ML-based models to control large-scale constellations. Trillium TPUs are radiation tested. They survive a total ionizing dose equivalent to a 5 year mission life without permanent failures, and are characterized for bit-flip errors. Launch costs are a critical part of overall system cost; a learning curve analysis suggests launch to low-Earth orbit (LEO) may reach $\lesssim$\$200/kg by the mid-2030s.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Ultra Flash: Scaling Real-Time Streaming Video Generation to High Resolutions

While recent autoregressive video diffusion models achieve remarkable streaming quality, they remain confined to low resolutions (e.g., 480P), leaving efficient, scalable, real-time high-resolution video generation a fundamental open challenge. To bridge this gap, we present Ultra Flash, a cascaded streaming framework capable of real-time high-resolution video generation. Ultra Flash achieves ~30 FPS at 1K resolution and ~18 FPS at 2K resolution on a single GPU through three key contributions: (1) an architecture-preserving T2V-to-TV2V super-resolution training paradigm coupled with an AIGC-oriented data degradation pipeline that effectively preserves the generative capability of the base model, enabling enhanced high-resolution detail when cascaded after mainstream low-resolution generative models; (2) a causal streaming latent upsampler paired with a high-resolution decoder, which enhances spatiotemporal coherence while enabling efficient latent spatial scaling and precise high-resolution decoding with negligible computational overhead; and (3) a cascade high-resolution streaming video generation optimization scheme that first performs hybrid-reward-enhanced sparse causalization and single-step distillation of the super-resolution model, then introduces cascaded streaming self-forcing preference optimization with dynamic cache management, jointly enhancing overall coherence, improving quality, and enabling real-time high-resolution streaming video generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Ultra Flash reliably produces ultra-high-resolution streaming video while maintaining state-of-the-art visual quality and superior efficiency. Project Page: https://xin1u.github.io/UltraFlash/

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Minimalist Genetic Programming

arXiv:2606.10237v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Genetic programming (GP) is based on two important insights. First, that any learning task can fundamentally be posed as a program induction problem, where the goal is to construct a symbolic hierarchical model that is expressed as a syntax tree. Second, to pose this task as a search problem, and use evolution to locate the desired model. Since it was proposed, GP has produced notable results in a wide range of tasks and problem domains. This work presents an alternative view by modifying the second core insight of GP, posing the problem as a syntactic derivation task instead. In particular, this paper presents Minimalist Genetic Programming (MGP), an algorithm that like GP is biologically inspired, but instead of evolution it takes inspiration from the Minimalist Program to human language, in which syntax is understood as an optimal solution to the problem of linking two other mental systems. In minimalism, the core computational process is a binary set formation operator called $MERGE$, than can be used to incrementally construct complex syntactic structures using a simple Markovian process. MGP is able to discover the core building blocks of the symbolic expressions, and to incrementally combined them using $MERGE$. The proposed system is benchmarked on symbolic regression tasks that are known to be difficult to solve with standard GP systems because of the propensity for bloat. Results show that when a proper lexicon of atomic syntactic objects are chosen, MGP is able to consistently produce the exact ground truth model on a set of symbolic regression tasks where standard GP struggles to do the same. The insights provided by minimalism are shown to be relevant to the problem of program induction, and should be explored further based on the potential exhibited by MGP in this work.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-20

EpiLink: a simulation-based compatibility model for genomic transmission clustering in infectious disease surveillance

Identifying recently linked infections from pathogen genome sequences is central to infectious disease surveillance, yet many clustering approaches rely on fixed genetic distance thresholds whose relationship to transmission is often unclear. This limitation is especially important in rapidly growing outbreaks and superspreading events, where many cases may be sampled close together in time and share little genetic variation, making true transmission links difficult to distinguish from other closely related infections. Supervised models can improve discrimination, but they require labelled transmission data that are rarely available during outbreak response. We developed EpiLink, a threshold-free method that estimates whether two cases are compatible with recent transmission. Here, compatibility means how well the observed genetic distance and sampling-time difference between two cases fit what would be expected if they were linked by defined recent transmission scenarios. EpiLink simulates plausible recent transmission histories while accounting for uncertainty in infection timing, testing delay, and mutation accumulation, then assigns higher scores to pairs whose observed differences are typical of those simulations. EpiLink was evaluated using both synthetic and empirical SARS-CoV-2 outbreak data from the 2020 Boston epidemic. Two EpiLink variants were compared to a logistic regression model trained on labelled transmission data. One EpiLink variant assumed deterministic mutation accumulation, with genetic differences proportional to elapsed evolutionary time; the other accounted for stochasticity by sampling mutation counts from a Poisson distribution. The logistic regression model performed better at distinguishing linked from unlinked pairs, but EpiLink achieved comparable clustering accuracy. In the Boston data, EpiLink recovered clusters enriched for documented conference and skilled nursing facility outbreaks. EpiLink thus provides an interpretable, simulation-based approach for identifying recent transmission clusters when fixed thresholds are difficult to justify and labelled transmission data are unavailable.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Point-Cloud-Assistant Localized Statistical Channel Prediction by Tangent Gaussian Splatting

arXiv:2606.18734v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate, site-specific channel information is crucial for optimizing next-generation wireless networks. Among various approaches, localized statistical channel modeling (LSCM), which models the channel multipath angular power spectrum (APS) from the reference signal received power (RSRP) measurement, has emerged as a state-of-the-art method tailored for efficient network optimization. However, despite its effectiveness, LSCM cannot predict APS at the vast majority of locations where no measurements are available, which significantly restricts its applicability in large-scale, real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, we present point-cloud-assisted tangent Gaussian splatting (PC-TGS), the first framework to extrapolate APS to unmeasured outdoor grids by integrating sparse radio measurements with dense LiDAR-based geometry. PC-TGS represents environmental scatterers as anisotropic 3D Gaussians, initialized and refined through a relaxed-mean reparameterization of the raw point cloud. A tangent-plane projection accurately maps each Gaussian into the local angular domain, while a depth-aware electromagnetic splatting process aggregates their contributions. To ensure practical deployment, we derive a closed-form Gaussian-weighted average (GWA) for APS bin integration and provide a provable error bound. { Evaluations on a LiDAR-scanned city-scale dataset (5M points, 6,310 RSRP samples) demonstrate that PC-TGS achieves better APS and RSRP prediction performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines and faster inference time for APS extrapolation task. These results highlight the potential of PC-TGS to enable geometry-aware and data-efficient channel prediction in large-scale wireless digital twins.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

An In-depth Study of LLM Contributions to the Bin Packing Problem

arXiv:2510.27353v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent studies have suggested that Large Language Models (LLMs) could provide interesting ideas contributing to mathematical discovery. This claim was motivated by reports that LLM-based genetic algorithms produced heuristics offering new insights into the online bin packing problem under uniform and Weibull distributions. In this work, we reassess this claim through a detailed analysis of the heuristics produced by LLMs, examining both their behavior and interpretability. Despite being human-readable, these heuristics remain largely opaque even to domain experts. Building on this analysis, we propose a new class of algorithms tailored to these specific bin packing instances. The derived algorithms are significantly simpler, more efficient, more interpretable, and more generalizable, suggesting that the considered instances are themselves relatively simple. We then discuss the limitations of the claim regarding LLMs' contribution to this problem, which appears to rest on the mistaken assumption that the instances had previously been studied. Our findings instead emphasize the need for rigorous validation and contextualization when assessing the scientific value of LLM-generated outputs.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

TokenRatio: Principled Token-Level Preference Optimization via Ratio Matching

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a widely used RL-free method for aligning language models from pairwise preferences, but it models preferences over full sequences even though generation is driven by per-token decisions. Existing token-level extensions typically decompose a sequence-level Bradley-Terry objective across timesteps, leaving per-prefix (state-wise) optimality implicit. We study how to recover token-level preference optimality using only standard sequence-level pairwise comparisons. We introduce Token-level Bregman Preference Optimization (TBPO), which posits a token-level Bradley-Terry preference model over next-token actions conditioned on the prefix, and derive a Bregman-divergence density-ratio matching objective that generalizes the logistic/DPO loss while preserving the optimal policy induced by the token-level model and maintaining DPO-like simplicity. We introduce two instantiations: TBPO-Q, which explicitly learns a lightweight state baseline, and TBPO-A, which removes the baseline through advantage normalization. Across instruction following, helpfulness/harmlessness, and summarization benchmarks, TBPO improves alignment quality and training stability and increases output diversity relative to strong sequence-level and token-level baselines.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Stabilizing Bandits using Regularization: Precise Regret and A Quantitative Central Limit Theorem

arXiv:2603.10184v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical inference with bandit data presents fundamental challenges owing to adaptive sampling, which violates the independence assumptions underlying classical asymptotic theory. Recent work has identified stability~\citep{laiwei82} as a sufficient condition for valid inference under adaptivity. This paper first provides a refined stability condition, stated in terms of the iterates of an online algorithm, and shows that a large class of regularized stochastic-mirror-descent-style algorithms satisfy it. This refined condition allows us to strengthen the asymptotic results of~\citet{laiwei82} in several ways. First, we derive a non-asymptotic Berry–Esseen bound for the empirical reward estimates under adaptive sampling. Second, we derive matching non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the regret of the proposed algorithm, yielding a precise characterization of its regret. Third, we show that these regularized algorithms preserve asymptotic normality and valid inference under a prescribed level of adversarial corruption. Finally, we show that regularization is necessary rather than incidental: Lai–Wei stability is incompatible with the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret rate – the rate attained by unregularized algorithms such as EXP3 – so that a controlled, polylogarithmic inflation in regret is the price of valid inference.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A graph neural network surrogate model for mesh-based crashworthiness prediction of vehicle panel components

arXiv:2503.17386v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Crashworthiness is a key performance measure in the design of safety-critical vehicle panel components such as B-pillars. Finite element (FE) simulations are widely used to evaluate crash responses but remain computationally expensive for large-scale, nonlinear impact scenarios, particularly when integrated into iterative design and optimisation processes. Although machine learning-based surrogate models have been developed for rapid crashworthiness analysis, they exhibit limitations in detailed representation of complex 3-dimensional components. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising solution for processing data with complex structures. However, existing GNN models often lack sufficient accuracy and computational efficiency to meet industrial demands. This paper proposes Recurrent Graph U-Net (ReGUNet), a graph-based surrogate model for crashworthiness analysis of vehicle panel components. By representing FE meshes in graph form, the model naturally accommodates complex irregular structural geometries. Its hierarchical architecture improves computational efficiency and accuracy, while the introduction of recurrence enhances stability of temporal predictions over multiple time steps. A side-impact case study of hot-stamped steel B-pillars with varying geometries is used to generate training dataset. The trained model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting the dynamic deformation behaviour and crashworthiness indicators of previously unseen component designs. ReGUNet achieves over a 52% reduction in the average deformation prediction error relative to baseline methods, together with markedly improved computational efficiency. ReGUNet provides rapid and reliable crashworthiness assessments, which in turn accelerates the design cycle of vehicle panel components.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Anti-Platelet Factor 4 Antibody Clonal Heterogeneity and MGUS Status in HIT

Background Monoclonal gammopathy of thrombotic significance (MGTS) is a recently described chronic prothrombotic condition characterized by monoclonal anti-PF4 antibodies that are detected above the polyclonal antibody background in patient sera (i.e. present as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, MGUS). Due to conflicting data in the published literature on antibody clonality in heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), we evaluated clonality and abundance of anti-PF4 antibodies in HIT, including investigating whether an MGUS, if present in HIT, represents the causative anti-PF4 antibody. Methods Blood samples from 15 patients with HIT were subject to Platelet Factor 4-dependent antigen-based and functional tests. The unmanipulated serum antibody repertoire and isolated anti-PF4 antibodies were subjected to mass spectrometric evaluation. Results Two of the 15 HIT patients had an IgG MGUS. Notably, anti-PF4 antibodies were not synonymous with the MGUS antibody in either of the two patients. Eight of the 15 patients demonstrated monoclonal anti-PF4 antibodies, however, none of the anti-PF4 antibodies were detectable as an MGUS upon evaluation of the entire serum antibody repertoire, reflecting their low abundance. In the seven patients with multiple anti-PF4 antibodies, non-monoclonality was confirmed by analysis of deglycosylated antibody heavy chains. Conclusions Anti-PF4 HIT antibodies are monoclonal in approximately 50% of HIT patients, however, antibody abundance is low such that they are not detectable over the polyclonal IgG background (i.e. are MGUS-negative), differentiating HIT from MGTS. This observation helps explain the transient nature of HIT relative to the persistent prothrombotic state seen in MGTS.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Surflo: Consistent 3D Surface Flow Model with Global State

Geometry is invariant to viewpoint, which makes any collection of images a redundant encoding of a single 3D state. Existing feed-forward reconstruction models fail to exploit this: per-view methods emit overlapping, unaligned pointmaps that grow linearly with input count, while global-latent methods commit to a fixed, low-resolution output. We introduce Surflo, which compresses a variable number of unposed RGB views into K latent tokens-one global state-and decodes oriented 3D surface points by independently transporting them from noise onto the surface via flow matching. This frees the output from any fixed grid or token budget: the same latent yields from a few thousand to a million points in a single forward pass. To suppress the local inconsistencies inherent to independent per-point decoding, an inference-time guidance term correlates nearby points by injecting a photometric gradient during ODE integration. Surflo matches or surpasses feed-forward baselines on surface metrics, runs an order of magnitude faster than optimization-based methods that require hundreds of views, and is the only feed-forward approach to combine a global latent with arbitrary-resolution decoding.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Predicting Mergeability of Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning Updates

arXiv:2606.19549v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) makes it cheap to train many domain- and task-specific language model adapters, but whether two adapters can be merged is usually discovered only after both have been fully trained and evaluated. This late feedback is costly: adapters that are strong in isolation can interfere destructively once their updates are combined. We ask whether this outcome can be anticipated. We formalize adapter mergeability as the degree to which an adapter preserves its single-task utility after merging, and show that it can be forecast from signals measured in the first few percent of training – chiefly how the low-rank updates and their gradients align across tasks and how much they disturb shared representations. We package these signals into MergeProbe, a lightweight predictor that estimates pairwise and set-level retention and turns the estimate into a concrete decision: merge directly, reweight, prune, or route. On MERGE-PEFT, a five-domain benchmark spanning math, code, science, instruction following, and safety, MergeProbe attains the best average and worst-case retention among strong interference-aware merge baselines while adding far less deployment overhead than full task routing. This turns LoRA merging from a post-hoc engineering step into an anticipatory measurement problem.