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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Asymptotic analysis of the finite predictor for fractional Gaussian noise

arXiv:2504.01562v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to the asymptotic analysis of the finite predictor for stationary sequences. Our method yields the exact asymptotics of both the relative prediction error and the partial correlation coefficients. The underlying assumptions are analytic in nature, making the approach applicable to processes with long-range dependence. The ARMA-type process driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which had previously remained elusive, is used as a case study.

02.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Active commuting, anxiety symptoms and mental wellbeing: a dose-response study

Climate change draws attention to the planetary health perspective in sport and exercise sciences, that is, to physical activity that supports both human wellbeing and environmental sustainability. Active commuting is a sustainable form of physical activity with well-established somatic health benefits. However, more knowledge is needed on its relationship with mental health. We examined dose-response associations between active commuting, anxiety symptoms, and mental wellbeing among Finnish adults, and whether green commuting environment moderates these relationships. We used data from the cross-sectional Environment and Health Survey collected in June-September 2023 in the ten largest cities in Finland. Employed participants with data on anxiety symptoms (Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, GAD-7), mental wellbeing (World Health Organization-Five Well-Being Index, WHO-5), commuting profile over a year (mode, frequency, distance, and perceived greenness along the commute route), and sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were included (n=1,672; mean age 45.3 years; 53.8% women). Active commuting was defined as travelling the entire commute by walking or cycling (including e-biking) that was converted into approximated annual km/week and MET-h/week. We used linear and logistic regression with restricted cubic splines to evaluate dose-response associations, adjusted for key covariates. The role of perceived greenness was tested using an active commuting x commute greenness interaction term. We found no dose-response relationships between active commuting and anxiety symptoms or mental wellbeing in any of the models. No effect modification by commute greenness was observed. More research on how active commuting may support planetary health from a mental health perspective is needed.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Disentangling Hallucinations: Orthogonal Semantic Projection for Robust Interpretability

As Vision-Language Models are increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications, the trustworthiness of their explanations becomes crucial. Explainable AI (XAI) methods for Vision-Language Models often suffer from semantic hallucination, where attribution maps highlight prominent image regions even when prompted with incorrect text descriptions (e.g., highlighting a dog when prompted ``cat''). Although this problem is widespread, a formal mathematical analysis of XAI methods and CLIP embeddings is largely missing in the literature. We demonstrate that this phenomenon is not specific to a single architecture but is a fundamental consequence of Linear Semantic Leakage in high-dimensional embedding spaces. We propose a unified theoretical framework, Linear Semantic Attribution (LSA), which generalizes across discriminative methods. We introduce OSP, a geometric intervention that utilizes the residual property of OMP to disentangle unique semantic signals from shared concepts. We prove theoretically and demonstrate empirically that OSP minimizes hallucination by orthogonalizing the query vector against distractor concepts, rendering the attribution model blind to shared features while preserving fidelity for correct prompts. Our code is available at: https://github.com/emirhanbilgic/Orthogonal-Semantic-Projection

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Tail-Shape Estimation in LLM Evaluation Is Fragile: A Protocol for Diagnosing False Positives

作者:

arXiv:2606.16511v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work motivates moving large language model (LLM) evaluation from mean-based to tail-aware metrics, including conditional value-at-risk and tail-index estimates of reward-model error. We ask whether the canonical extreme-value-theory tail-index parameter, which isolates how heavy a tail is from how large the tail mass is, adds discriminative information beyond the mean and a standard tail-magnitude statistic in LLM evaluation. We pre-register a protocol covering admissibility, goodness-of-fit, threshold-stability, and effect-size requirements for any positive tail-shape claim. The protocol is the contribution of this paper; the empirical study below is a demonstration of what its gates catch. Applied to a standard LLM toxicity-evaluation setup under two structurally different scorer families, the protocol catches three distinct modes of false positives that a naive analysis would have published, and rejects the headline tail-shape claim on both scorers. We conclude that tail-shape estimation in the LLM toxicity-evaluation setups we examined is more fragile than the recent literature suggests, and recommend the protocol as a starting point for tail-index claims in similar setups.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Analyzing Defensive Misdirection Against Model-Guided Automated Attacks on Agentic AI Systems

arXiv:2606.20470v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agentic AI systems increasingly rely on language-model components to interpret instructions, process external data, invoke tools, and coordinate with other agents. These capabilities make prompt-injection and jailbreak attacks more consequential, especially as attackers adopt model-guided automation to scale probing, prompt refinement, and response evaluation. This work analyzes the resulting attack-defense setting through a probabilistic model of a target system, its defense mechanism, and the attacker's automated judge. Our analysis shows that conventional detect-and-block defenses can allow attacker success rate (ASR) to approach one as the query budget grows, since predictable refusals provide useful feedback to automated search. We then examine detect-and-misdirect, where detected malicious interactions receive controlled, non-operational responses designed to induce false-positive errors in the attacker's judge. This strategy reduces the positive predictive value of attacker-selected candidates and yields a bounded asymptotic ASR. We evaluate a proof-of-concept realization of this strategy through Contextual Misdirection via Progressive Engagement (CMPE), a lightweight conversational misdirection method designed to replace predictable refusal text with safe but strategically misleading responses in automated jailbreak settings. On jailbreak benchmarks, CMPE reduces estimated ASR upper bounds by up to two orders of magnitude and nearly eliminates verified attack success in end-to-end PAIR and GPTFuzz attack runs.

06.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

A unified smoothing framework for protein domain bigram model

Biomolecular sequences can be represented as strings over an alphabet, an analogy that has motivated many applications of computational linguistic techniques to biological problems. However, such methods must be adapted to the characteristic scale and organization of biomolecular data. Here, we consider the problem of bigram smoothing for multidomain protein architectures, where domain bigram frequency data is extremely sparse and differs from textual data in alphabet size, string length distribution, the relationship between bigram and unigram frequencies, tandem repeat lengths, and the distribution of domain adjacencies. Moreover, some domain combinations are unobserved because they are biologically incompatible, others because the data are incomplete. A smoothing method that distinguishes these two cases is required. We propose a unified smoothing framework based on interpolation that can be tuned to accommodate different bigram data characteristics. Within this framework, we design specific model variants suited to protein domain bigram data: these assign low adjusted counts to pairs that are likely incompatible, while making appropriate adjustments for undersampled pairs. We demonstrate empirically that this approach distinguishes the two cases while preserving the characteristic signatures of multidomain data.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

arXiv:2606.12843v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

TNODEV: Toolbox for Neural ODE Verification

arXiv:2606.16567v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural ordinary differential equations (neural ODE) have started to appear in safety critical settings such as continuous-time controllers for cyber-physical systems and classifiers integrated into automated decision pipelines, raising the question of whether their behavior can be formally verified. Existing tools dedicated to neural ODE provide only a single reachability call without iterative input set refinement, limiting the precision of their verdicts to whatever one reachability call can deliver. We present TNODEV, the first sound formal verifier for neural ODE that integrates a falsification checker, a fast interval-based reachability backend based on continuous-time mixed monotonicity, a verification and refinement loop with three input-set splitting heuristics, and a parallel scheduler in a single end-to-end pipeline. TNODEV supports safe-set inclusion verification on pure neural ODE, neural ODE in closed loop with a neural network controller and general neural ODE (GNODE), with the safe set specified either as an interval or as the half-space intersection induced by a target classification label. We evaluate TNODEV on a range of benchmarks across safe-set inclusion and classification-robustness properties, including a direct reachability comparison against NNV~2.0 and CORA and a verification comparison against NNV2.0 on MNIST general neural ODE classifiers.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

MolE-RAG: Molecular Structure-Enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Chemistry

arXiv:2606.05693v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise for molecular property prediction, but their ability to reason over chemical structures remains limited, as molecular representations such as SMILES differ substantially from the natural language on which LLMs are primarily trained. To bridge this semantic and chemical knowledge gap, we propose MolE-RAG, a training-free, molecule-centric retrieval-augmented generation framework for LLM-based molecular property prediction. MolE-RAG augments each prediction with three complementary sources of inference-time context: retrieved chemistry literature, molecule-specific information including compound synonyms, identifiers, functional group annotations, and physicochemical descriptors, and structurally similar molecules retrieved from the training set. We evaluate MolE-RAG across nine molecular property prediction tasks using proprietary, chemistry-specialized, and open-source LLMs. Across general-purpose LLMs, MolE-RAG improves ROC-AUC by up to 28 percentage points on classification tasks and reduces regression RMSE by up to 67% relative to a SMILES-only baseline. We further find that the utility of each context source varies across models and tasks, with different models benefiting most from textual retrieval, molecular context, or structural retrieval. These results suggest that molecule-centric retrieval can improve LLM-based molecular property prediction without model fine-tuning while providing a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous chemical knowledge at inference time.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Incremental costs of transitioning from four to eight WHO-recommended antenatal care visits in Uganda: A costing analysis from a societal perspective

Background In 2016, the World Health Organization revised its antenatal care (ANC) recommendation from four to eight visits. For low- and middle-income countries like Uganda, where achieving even four visits remains a challenge, this transition has significant cost implications for both the health system and households. This study estimated the incremental costs of adopting the eight-visit model from a societal perspective. Methods The study was conducted in six government health facilities in southwestern Uganda. A micro-costing approach estimated health facility costs (personnel, equipment, consumables, and overhead). Costs incurred at patients end (transport, ultrasound, medical expenses, and time) were collected from 785 women using a questionnaire, with all costs in 2025 USD. Results For an average of 4.3 visits, total cost per woman was $100.1: facility costs $43.7 (43.7%), and patient costs $56.4 (56.3%). Transitioning to eight visits would increase total cost by $57.8 (57.8%), of which $36.4 (63.0%) would fall on households, equivalent to 68.8% of average monthly household income. Total costs would rise by 55.4% ($115.5 to $179.5) at Health Center IVs and 64.3% ($102.3 to $168.1) at Health Center IIIs, with facility costs up 43.4% and 62.9% and patient costs up 61.2% and 65.7%, respectively. Conclusion Transitioning to eight ANC visits would impose a large financial burden on households, with the incremental patient cost equivalent to more than two-thirds of average monthly household income. Equitable implementation requires improving availability of medicines and diagnostics, subsidizing transport, exploring telemedicine or community-based models, and improving efficiency at lower-tier health centers.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

When LLMs Analyze Scars: From Images to Clinically-Meaningful Features

Medical image classification faces a fundamental dilemma: while deep learning models achieve remarkable performance at scale, real-world clinical scenarios often suffer from severe data scarcity due to annotation costs, privacy constraints, and disease rarity. This challenge is particularly pronounced in pathological scar classification, where differentiating keloids from hypertrophic scars requires subtle expert knowledge and labeled images are extremely limited. We propose a novel paradigm that repositions large language models (LLMs) as knowledge-driven feature engineers rather than end-to-end classifiers. We call this framework ScaFE (Scar Feature Engineering). Our key insight is that LLMs encode rich medical knowledge that can be externalized as executable feature extraction code, enabling the transformation of high-dimensional images into low-dimensional, clinically interpretable representations. Specifically, we prompt an LLM with established scar assessment criteria to generate deterministic Python code that extracts features aligned with clinical scoring systems such as the Vancouver Scar Scale. Our approach offers three key advantages: (1) data efficiency, achieving robust performance with limited training samples by decoupling knowledge acquisition from statistical learning; (2) privacy preservation, as raw images are processed locally without exposure to external LLMs; and (3) interpretability, through explicit features grounded in clinical reasoning. Extensive experiments on scar classification demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms end-to-end deep learning baselines or using LLMs as black-box classifiers under limited data conditions, establishing a promising direction for integrating LLMs into data-efficient and clinically transparent medical AI systems.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

CisTransCell: Single-Cell Perturbation Prediction via Gene Function, Regulatory Control, and Cellular Context

arXiv:2606.13713v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting cellular transcriptional responses to genetic perturbations is a central problem in single-cell biology, especially in the zero-shot setting where the perturbed gene or gene combination is unseen during training. A major difficulty is that perturbation effects are not determined by expression state alone: they depend on how the perturbed gene product influences other genes and proteins, how those downstream factors act on cis-regulatory elements, and which regulatory programs are active in the current cell state. To better capture this biological complexity, we propose CisTransCell, a cell-conditioned multi-modal framework for single-cell perturbation prediction that augments each gene with two complementary priors: a regulatory-sequence prior that captures how the gene is controlled, and a coding-sequence prior that captures what the gene product does. By integrating these priors with cellular expression state, CisTransCell models perturbation response as a cascade from gene function to regulatory control to downstream transcriptional change. Experiments on benchmark single-cell perturbation datasets show that CisTransCell achieves strong performance in zero-shot perturbation prediction.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

SACE: Concept Erasure at the Semantic Singularity in Visual Autoregressive Models

The rapid progress of visual autoregressive (VAR) models has unlocked a transformative frontier for high-fidelity text-to-image synthesis, while heightening concerns over the safety alignment of generated content. Naive application of existing erasure techniques to VAR models causes catastrophic semantic collapse and visual artifacts, since they are predominantly designed for the homogeneous denoising steps of diffusion models. To address this foundational challenge, we first propose the Semantic Singularity Axiom, which posits that any target semantic concept embedded within a prompt is definitively locked at Scale-0. Then rigorously validate this axiom through our proposed Incremental Semantic Saliency Analysis (ISSA),which also enable the community to transparently inspect the coarse-to-fine semantic injection process. Guided by this insight, we introduce the first scale-aware concept erasure framework (SACE) for VAR models. By strictly confining interventions to the first scale, our approach couples an Entropy-Regularized Erasure Objective to prevent high-entropy sampling degeneration, alongside a restorative preservation loss to safely anchor the integrity of entangled benign priors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves surgical concept erasure performance across various domains with minimal training overhead, timely and elegently resolute the critical safety vulnerabilities inherent in emerging VAR architectures. Code is available at: https://github.com/limerenceysy/SACE}{https://github.com/limerenceysy/SACE.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Did You Forget What I Asked? Prospective Memory Failures in Large Language Models

作者:

Large language models often fail to satisfy formatting instructions when they must simultaneously perform demanding tasks. We study this behaviour through a prospective memory inspired lens from cognitive psychology, using a controlled paradigm that combines verifiable formatting constraints with benchmark tasks of increasing complexity. Across three model families and over 8,000 prompts, compliance drops by 2-21% under concurrent task load. Vulnerability is highly type-dependent: terminal constraints (requiring action at the response boundary) degrade most, with drops up to 50%, while avoidance constraints remain comparatively robust. A salience-enhanced format (explicit instruction framing plus a trailing reminder) recovers much of the lost compliance, restoring performance to 90-100% in many settings. Interference is bidirectional: formatting constraints can also reduce task accuracy, with one model's GSM8K accuracy dropping from 93% to 27%. In additional stacking experiments, joint compliance declines sharply as constraints accumulate. All results use deterministic programmatic checkers without an LLM-as-judge component on publicly available datasets.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Reinforcement Learning for Accelerated Aerodynamic Shape Optimisation

arXiv:2507.17786v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a reinforcement learning (RL) based adaptive optimization algorithm for aerodynamic shape optimization focused on dimensionality reduction. The form in which RL is applied here is that of a surrogate-based, actor-critic policy evaluation MCMC approach allowing for temporal 'freezing' of some of the parameters to be optimized. The goals are to minimize computational effort, and to use the observed optimization results for interpretation of the discovered extrema in terms of their role in achieving the desired flow-field. By a sequence of local optimized parameter changes around intermediate CFD simulations acting as ground truth, it is possible to speed up the global optimization if (a) the local neighbourhoods of the parameters in which the changed parameters must reside are sufficiently large to compete with the grid-sized steps and its large number of simulations, and (b) the estimates of the rewards and costs on these neighbourhoods necessary for a good step-wise parameter adaption are sufficiently accurate. We give an example of a simple fluid-dynamical problem on which the method allows interpretation in the sense of a feature importance scoring.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Ontology Memory-Augmented ASR Correction for Long Text-Speech Interleaved Conversations

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) correction has traditionally focused on isolated utterances or short local contexts. However, as text and speech become increasingly interleaved in long interactions, ASR correction requires conversation-level contextual evidence. Existing ASR correction methods often rely on the current hypothesis or concatenate raw dialogue history. In such contexts, sparse correction evidence can be difficult to locate amid redundancy and noise. Addressing these challenges, we propose an ontology memory-augmented ASR correction framework for long text-speech interleaved conversations. The framework organizes preceding interaction history into a dynamically updatable ontology memory, where entities, terminology, surface variants, potential ASR confusions, and semantic relations are stored as retrievable nodes for context-grounded correction. To evaluate this setting, we construct RAMC-Corr, a dataset derived from MAGIC-RAMC for long-range ASR correction with grounded context. Experiments on RAMC-Corr show that our method improves over direct correction in 9 out of 10 paired backbone-setting combinations and encourages more selective and evidence-grounded corrections for context-dependent ASR errors.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

PPDM: Pixel Puzzling Diffusion Model for Speed and Memory Efficient Volumetric Medical Image Translation

Diffusion models have demonstrated superior fidelity for medical image-to-image translation, but their extension to high-resolution 3D volumes is severely constrained by prohibitive computational cost and GPU memory requirements. Existing memory-efficient strategies often compromise global volumetric consistency or fine anatomical detail. In this work, we propose the Pixel Puzzling Diffusion Model (PPDM), a simple and effective framework for memory- and speed-efficient 3D medical image translation. PPDM introduces a reversible pixel puzzle-unpuzzle operator that trades spatial resolution for channel dimensionality, substantially reducing activation memory while preserving global context. To further improve efficiency and stability, we adopt a direct bridge diffusion formulation that starts from the conditional input rather than pure noise, enabling the model to focus on task-relevant residuals. In addition, a puzzle-gradient loss is incorporated to enforce spatial coherence and suppress grid-like artifacts introduced by spatial rearrangement. We evaluate PPDM on multiple challenging 3D medical image translation tasks, including low-count PET denoising, joint PET denoising and attenuation correction, and cross-modal MRI translation. Across all tasks, PPDM consistently matches or outperforms full 3D diffusion models while reducing training GPU memory usage by up to an order of magnitude and significantly accelerating inference, and it outperforms existing memory-efficient diffusion approaches based on latent compression or frequency decomposition. These results demonstrate that PPDM provides a practical and scalable solution for high-fidelity 3D diffusion-based medical image translation under limited computational resources.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LLM Consumer Behavior Theory: Foundations of a Novel Research Field

arXiv:2606.18005v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents that make consumption decisions on behalf of users. This shift raises fundamental questions for consumer theory, which has traditionally modeled humans as the primary decision-makers. In this paper, we introduce LLM Consumer Behavior Theory, a new field of study concerned with analyzing consumer behavior in agentic markets. Drawing on classical and behavioral economics alongside recent advances in Natural Language Processing, we formalize how human preferences are reflected and acted upon by LLM-based agents, and how agent-level decisions aggregate into market demand. We unify previously fragmented literature on LLM decision-making, human behavior simulation, and preference elicitation under a common economic lens, highlighting where assumptions, such as rationality and heterogeneity, may fail in agentic markets. Rather than providing empirical validation, this paper outlines the scope of LLM consumer behavior and identifies open research questions related to alignment, preference representation, and market dynamics.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

ScoutVLA: UAV-Centric Active Perception via a Dual-Expert VLA Model for Open-World Embodied Question Answering

Aerial Embodied Question Answering (EQA) requires Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to actively perceive the environment and answer natural language questions. Existing outdoor EQA systems usually stop once the target enters the UAV's field of view, leaving the fine-grained viewpoint adjustment needed for evidence-seeking questions largely unresolved. To address this issue, we introduce FG-EQA, a fine-grained active perception EQA benchmark with more than 40K simulated trajectories and 1K real-world trajectories. Drawing inspiration from the ``waggle dance'' of scout bees, which iteratively adjust their flight paths to verify target information, we propose ScoutVLA, an evidence-driven Vision-Language-Action model for outdoor EQA. To emulate this active exploration behavior, ScoutVLA features a decoupled dual-expert architecture: a vision-language expert infers the semantic intent to identify missing evidence, while an independent action expert employs high-DoF flow matching to generate continuous viewpoint-refinement trajectories. To balance the competing demands of continuous control and semantic reasoning, we devise a decoupled training strategy with a knowledge insulation mechanism that prevents the action gradients from erasing the model's multimodal reasoning ability. Extensive simulated experiments and a qualitative real-world field study both verify the superiority of ScoutVLA over the state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating a 10.48$\boldsymbol{\times}$ higher average strict success rate and a 7.72$\boldsymbol{\times}$ higher average QA correctness.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

ERTS: Adversarial Robustness Testing of Ethical AI via Semantic Perturbation in a Bounded Consequence Space

arXiv:2606.13282v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As AI systems are deployed in high-stakes ethical contexts such as healthcare triage, autonomous vehicle control, and employment screening, formal methods for evaluating their robustness against adversarial manipulation of ethical reasoning remain underdeveloped. This paper introduces the Ethical Robustness Testing System (ERTS), a closed-pipeline framework that: (1) encodes ethical dilemmas into a 22-dimensional Ethical Consequence Space (ECS) grounded in established ethical theory; (2) applies 17 semantic perturbation functions subject to 6 validity constraint classes including a novel semantic coherence constraint; (3) measures decision deviation via a 4-component Ethical Instability Index (EII); and (4) produces domain-adaptive pre-deployment robustness assessment verdicts. We evaluate 4 structured baseline models and 2 production LLMs (Gemini 2.0 Flash and Llama 3.2) across 50 ethical scenarios spanning 8 deployment domains, generating 1,500 adversarial test cases. Results demonstrate that only 33% of models achieve assessment clearance, with the local Llama-3.2 model proving particularly vulnerable to fairness corruption and information degradation attacks (ERS = 0.737). To the best of our knowledge, no existing framework combines a bounded ethical consequence space, semantic coherence constraints, and domain-adaptive assessment in a single adversarial testing pipeline.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Leveraging systems' non-linearity to tackle the scarcity of data in the design of Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Systems

arXiv:2606.20323v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep Transfer Learning (DTL) allows for the efficient building of Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Systems (IFDS). On the other hand, DTL methods still heavily rely on large amounts of labelled data. Obtaining such an amount of data can be challenging when dealing with machines or structures faults. This document proposes a novel approach to the design of vibration-based IFDS using DTL in condition of strong data scarcity. A periodic multi-excitation level procedure leveraging intrinsic non-linearities of real-world systems is used to produce images that can be conveniently analysed by pre-trained Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to diagnose faults. A new data visualization method and its augmentation technique are proposed in this paper to tackle the typical lack of data encountered during the design of IFDS. Experimental validation on a railway pantograph structure provides effective support for the proposed method.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

arXiv:2606.12997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of deterministic models with stochasticity injected, trained using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) loss. While both approaches have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, the reliability of their uncertainties has not been systematically assessed. We address this gap by developing a framework to evaluate both approaches across diverse 2D spatiotemporal physical systems, under matched model size and computational budget. We assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation by inspecting the empirical coverage of predictive intervals, while also considering accuracy and computational efficiency metrics. CRPS-trained ensembles typically achieve more reliable uncertainties on both single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts, demonstrating better coverage than the standard alternative of training generative models in a latent space. Moreover, the CRPS approach offers significantly faster inference. When generative models are trained in ambient rather than a compressed latent space, which is often infeasible for high-dimensional problems, they exhibit comparable coverage to CRPS-trained ensembles, though with substantially larger inference latency. In contrast, when CRPS-trained ensembles are trained in latent space they do not show a marked degradation in coverage with respect to ambient space. Both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles demonstrate good predictive accuracy. To facilitate future research and application, we release AutoCast, a modular framework implementing both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles, alongside AutoSim, a flexible dataset generation package for rapid prototyping.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

HKVM-RAG: Key-Value-Separated Hypergraph Evidence Organization for Multi-Hop RAG

Multi-hop RAG poses a data-engineering problem beyond passage matching: under fixed retrieval budgets, a system must organize retrieved text into evidence units that expose answer chains. Dense retrievers score passages independently, while graph-based memories make associations explicit but often rely on pairwise or entity-centered keys that fragment multi-hop evidence. We present HKVM-RAG, a key-value-separated evidence-organization layer. It assembles answer-path hyperedges from cached passage-level LLM evidence tuples and uses them as retrieval keys, while retaining passage text as answer values. To isolate key-space design, our fixed-substrate protocol holds the tuple cache, candidate passages, reader, and evaluation budget constant across pairwise graph and hypergraph variants. Weighted hypergraph key-value retrieval improves over KG-PPR by +3.426 F1 on 2WikiMultiHopQA and +3.592 F1 on MuSiQue; HotpotQA shows that higher structured support coverage need not yield standalone answer-F1 gains. We therefore study WHG-KV as an evidence-control signal rather than a dense-retrieval replacement. Oracle and train-to-dev analyses identify support selection as repairable, and a dense-aware controller combines frozen ColBERTv2 and HKVM rank/score features using out-of-fold HKVM predictions. It reaches 88.846, 65.073, and 85.810 F1 on the three benchmarks, improving over ColBERTv2 by +11.084, +6.763, and +5.966 F1. Source-level ablations show that matched non-WHG structured signals do not match the WHG-KV gains. These results provide bounded evidence that key-value-separated hypergraph organization can serve as a reusable evidence-control mechanism for multi-hop RAG.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

A New Multi-Domain Benchmark for Micro-Action Recognition and Detection

Micro-actions are short-duration, low-amplitude subtle body movements at the whole-body level that can reveal latent intentions, involuntary reactions, and fine-grained affective changes. Our previous MA-52 benchmark has provided an important foundation for micro-action recognition, but it remains limited in scale, scene diversity, task coverage, and evaluation protocols. To advance micro-action analysis toward more realistic and comprehensive settings, we introduce MMA-82, a large-scale multi-domain extension of MA-52. MMA-82 expands the label space from 52 to 82 fine-grained micro-action categories and covers four distinct domains, including laboratory interviews, street interviews, psychiatric patient interviews, and emotion-rich television videos, resulting in 77,856 annotated instances from 454 subjects. Built upon MMA-82, we establish two core tasks: Micro-Action Recognition and Multi-label Micro-Action Detection. For recognition, we further define in-domain and cross-domain protocols, including few-shot and zero-shot settings, to evaluate model robustness, transferability, and generalization. Extensive experiments show that current methods still struggle with realistic micro-action understanding, especially under domain shift, long-tailed category distributions, and complex temporal localization. Beyond benchmarking, we investigate the relationship between micro-actions and emotion, showing that micro-actions are strongly associated with emotional states and provide complementary cues to facial micro-expressions for improved emotion recognition. These results demonstrate that MMA-82 serves as a comprehensive and challenging benchmark for realistic micro-action analysis and a valuable resource for human-centered AI. MMA-82 is available at https://github.com/LpyNow/MMA-82.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

LSTM-Based Detection of Structural Breaks in Property Insurance Loss Reserving: A Climate-Informed Approach

arXiv:2606.11463v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend. This white paper presents a research program testing whether Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks can detect and adapt to these structural breaks faster and more accurately than Chain Ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, and Cape Cod methods. Using 15 plus years of regulatory development triangle data from Florida and Louisiana, enriched with NOAA hurricane intensity indices and sea surface temperatures, we hypothesize a targeted improvement of 15, 20% in reserve accuracy for catastrophe exposed years, a threshold grounded both in the prior neural network reserving literature and in the formal convergence results developed here. Beyond empirical validation, we develop a theoretical framework grounding LSTM structural break detection in probabilistic terms, providing formal performance guarantees that compensate for the limited number of catastrophe events in the test period. We document the research design, methodology, expected contributions, and a candid assessment of limitations.