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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Probe-and-Refine Tuning of Repository Guidance for Coding Agents

arXiv:2606.20512v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM-based coding agents need higher-level operational knowledge about a repository (which files house which subsystems, how to run the test suite, which workflows have historically led to wrong fixes) that does not exist in the code itself. Engineers typically maintain \texttt{AGENTS.md} files to supply this context as instructions for coding agents, but whether they help is contested: recent studies disagree on whether LLM-generated guidance improves or harms agent performance. In this paper we show that how the guidance is produced is the decisive variable, and introduce probe-and-refine tuning: a procedure that uses synthetic bug-fix probes to iteratively diagnose and patch a repository's guidance file through single-shot LLM calls, with no agent loop or tool use during tuning. On SWE-bench Verified across four independent trials with Qwen3.5-35B-A3B at 200 steps, probe-and-refine achieves 33.0\,\% mean resolve rate vs.\ 28.3\,\% for the static knowledge base used to initialize it and 25.5\,\% for an unguided baseline ($p < 0.001$ for both probe-and-refine contrasts). The improvement comes from coverage rather than precision: refined guidance produces evaluable patches for 14.5 percentage points (pp) more instances while per-patch precision remains statistically constant ($\sim$59\,\%, $p = 0.119$), showing that improved guidance helps agents reach the correct file rather than improving the quality of the changes they make. Further, a step-budget experiment shows that guidance is what lets the agent use a larger step budget productively, and a cross-model experiment with NVIDIA-Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B finds that the tuning loop degrades when the model cannot generate sufficiently diagnostic output, though per-patch precision remains constant even then.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Toward Vibe Medicine: A Self-Evolving Multi-Agent Framework for Clinical Decision Support

arXiv:2606.15504v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In recent years, the advances of large language models and autonomous agents have revolutionized the healthcare field, facilitating diagnosis and improving treatment results. However, most existing AI systems rely on pre-trained knowledge and predefined pipelines, which struggle to learn dynamically from the interactive chat session history that contains patient outcomes and past failures. To address this limitation, we propose VIBEMed, a multi-agent framework with a built-in self-evolution mechanism and architecture-level safety sandbox for robust clinical decision support. The system integrates three specialized agents, including a Clinical Diagnostic Agent (CDA) for hypothesis generation, a Therapeutic Execution Agent (TEA) for treatment planning, and a Clinical Evolution Manager Agent (CEMA) that distills longitudinal clinical feedback into reusable knowledge, transforming multimodal patient information into personalized medical decisions. Through self-evolution mechanism, the framework enables iterative updates across memory, model behavior, and decision strategies, allowing the system to improve over time. Experimental results show that VIBEMed demonstrates superior performance through its evolving mechanism in complex clinical cases, particularly in tasks that require integrated decision-making and longitudinal planning. The framework also supports reliable end-to-end decisions in challenging scenarios such as oncology treatment planning, highlighting its feasibility in real-world clinical contexts. Overall, VIBEMed provides a practical path beyond static AI systems toward adaptive, experience-driven clinical decision support, demonstrating the value of combining multi-agent collaboration with continuous evolution for advancing precision medicine.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Perfect State Transfer on Quotient Graphs in Shunt Decomposition-Based Quantum Walks

arXiv:2606.24440v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates perfect state transfer (PST) in discrete-time quantum walks constructed via the shunt decomposition method. The walks are defined on a graph $G$ and its associated quotient graph $G/\pi$, induced by an equitable partition $\pi$. Through the shunt decomposition of $G$, we derive an explicit relation between the shift operator of the parent graph $G$ and that of its quotient graph $G/\pi$. We construct a reflection operator based on the characteristic matrix, which establishes a connection between the transition operator of the parent graph and that of its lower-dimensional quotient graph. We then prove that PST occurs on $G$ if and only if it occurs on $G/\pi$. Furthermore, we express the unitary evolution operator of the quotient graph in terms of Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind, from which we derive explicit criteria for PST. As an application, we establish PST on the cycle graph $C_{n}$ at time $k = n/2$, and lift the result to the parent graph $C_{2n}$ via the equitable partition $\pi$. We further show that if an equitable partition $\pi$ of $G$ induces a quotient isomorphic to $K_n^{\circlearrowleft}$, the complete digraph on $n$ vertices with a loop at every vertex, then PST occurs at step $k = n$, and the walk is periodic at $k = 2n$. This framework is applied to two families of graphs, which are the complete bipartite digraph $K_{n,n}^{\rightleftharpoons}$ and the circulant graph $\operatorname{Circ}(2n, S)$, where $S$ consists of all odd residues modulo $2n$ and $n = 2^s$ for some $s \geq 1$, establishing PST in their respective line digraphs. Collectively, these results also answer the question posed by Godsil and Zhan concerning which shunt decompositions or embeddings of a graph admit PST.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Robust and Interpretable Adaptation of Equivariant Materials Foundation Models via Sparsity-promoting Fine-tuning

arXiv:2606.18691v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pre-trained materials foundation models, or machine learning interatomic potentials, leverage general physicochemical knowledge to effectively approximate potential energy surfaces. However, they often require domain-specific calibration due to physicochemical diversity as well as mismatches between practical computational settings and those used in constructing the pre-training data. To address this, we propose a sparsity-promoting fine-tuning method that selectively updates model parameters by exploiting the structural properties of E(3)-equivariant materials foundation models. On energy and force prediction tasks across molecular and crystalline benchmarks, our method matches or surpasses full fine-tuning and equivariant low-rank adaptation while updating only $\sim$3~\% of parameters, and in some cases as little as $\sim$0.5~\%. Beyond energy and force calibration, we further demonstrate task generalizability by applying our method to magnetic moment prediction and magnetism-aware total energy modeling. Finally, analysis of sparsity patterns reveals physically interpretable signatures, such as enhanced $d$-orbital contributions in transition metal systems. Overall, our results establish sparsity-promoting fine-tuning as a flexible and interpretable method for domain specialization of equivariant materials foundation models.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management

arXiv:2501.00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints. While deep learning approaches show predictive capability, their opacity limits practical adoption, and single large language model (LLM) agents struggle to process the breadth of modality-specific inputs needed for robust decision-making. We propose a multi-agent system (MAS) framework in which three modality-specialised agents, a Crypto Agent for market dynamics, a News Agent for weekly news sentiment, and a Trading Agent for signal fusion and portfolio execution, decompose the task across three communication architectures: hierarchical, collaborative, and debate. We evaluate four capability configurations: zero-shot, chain-of-thought (CoT), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and skill-augmented. In a 52-week backtest over calendar year 2025 across the top 15 L1 blockchain native cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation as of January 2025, the best configuration, Hierarchical (Skill), achieves a cumulative return of 133.52% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.502, outperforming single-agent variants, passive benchmarks, and deep learning baselines. An ablation study identifies the Crypto Agent as the most critical component, with its removal reducing cumulative return by 42.57 percentage points. A cross-model comparison further shows that MAS outperforms the single-agent baseline under GPT-4o, GPT-5, and Claude Sonnet 4.5, suggesting that the benefit of multi-agent coordination is model-agnostic. Unlike black-box deep learning models, every portfolio decision is traceable to explicit agent reasoning, offering an interpretable and effective approach to multi-modal cryptocurrency portfolio management.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

When Does Delegation Beat Majority? A Delegation-Based Aggregator for Multi-Sample LLM Inference

arXiv:2606.08098v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Majority voting over sampled answers is the dominant unsupervised aggregator for multi-sample LLM inference. In this paper, we show a delegation-based aggregator (Propagational Proxy Voting, PPV; Sakai et al., 2025) yields an unsupervised consensus rule that beats majority on MMLU-Pro by +1.5 pp overall and +2.24 pp on the non-trivial subset (paired McNemar p ~ 1.0e-14, n = 8,099). Majority discards two signals that every sample carries: within-group letter entropy and between-group reasoning geometry. PPV exposes per-voter levers that consume exactly these two signals: When (how much weight a voter keeps on its own pick) and Whom (how it splits the remainder across peers). We drive When with letter entropy and Whom with per-question-centered embedding cosine. Our method needs no gold labels and no auxiliary training: per-question, we partition 128 sampled generations into 16 groups, compute each group's letter-level semantic entropy and reasoning embedding centroid, and feed both into a stochastic delegation matrix whose stationary distribution selects the consensus answer. We walk through an example in which PPV overturns a clear 10-6 majority for the wrong letter: the 10-voter majority cluster is geometrically incoherent (mean within-cluster cosine -0.02) while the 6-voter minority is tight (+0.26), so propagated delegation mass concentrates on the minority's answer even though entropy alone would keep the majority ahead. We further report delegation strategies with negative results that constrain the design space for unsupervised LLM aggregation. No within-question ensemble of confidence modes closes the oracle gap.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Time-dependent averages of a critical long-range stochastic heat equation

arXiv:2411.09058v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the time-dependent spatial averages of a critical stochastic partial differential equation, namely the stochastic heat equation in dimension $d\geq 3$ with noise white in time and colored in space with covariance kernel $\|\cdot\|^{-2}$. The solution to this SPDE is a singular measure and was constructed by Mueller and Tribe in [MT04]. We show that the time-dependent spatial averages of this SPDE over a ball of radius $R$ at time $t$ have different limits under different space-time scales. In particular, when $t\ll R^2$, the central limit theorem holds; when $t=R^2$, the spatial average is a non-Gaussian random variable; when $t\gg R^2$, the spatial average becomes extinct.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Peak-Based Nuclide Identification in HPGe $\gamma$-Spectrometry with Machine Learning and SHAP

arXiv:2606.14874v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-purity germanium gamma spectra often require time-consuming analyses from subject matter experts. Photopeaks within these spectra are carefully fitted and numerical methods are employed to assist with nuclide identification (NID) and quantification. Amending the list of nuclides identified by analysis software can be nontrivial. When many samples need to be analyzed, it is therefore challenging to make timely and correct decisions. Supervised machine-learning-based NID can serve as an expert-informed, automated tool to improve the initial set of radionuclides suggested to an analyst and more effectively drive subsequent quantification. To that end, we implemented machine learning models that map photopeaks carefully fitted by analysts to NID results for experimental spectra containing various isotopic combinations drawn from a set of 65 isotopes. The best model achieved an F1 score of 0.97, markedly surpassing the F1 score of 0.84 achieved by traditional software when compared using a nuclide library comprising the same 65 isotopes assessed by the models. Finally, we illustrated the most important input features for model predictions using Shapley Additive Explanations. These explanations revealed that the models use physically relevant photopeaks when making predictions for the isotopes in our nuclide library.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Efficient Graph State Purification with Factorized Graph-Preserving Operations across Local Clifford Orbits

arXiv:2606.23809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Graph states form a broad class of multipartite entangled states underlying measurement-based quantum computation, quantum networks, and stabilizer codes. However, systematic entanglement distillation for arbitrary graph states remains challenging because the circuit design space grows rapidly with the number of parties. We introduce a group of Clifford operations that we call "factorized graph-preserving". It enables us to efficiently enumerate and optimize graph-state purification circuits at finite size for realistic noisy hardware. These operations map products of graph-basis states to products of graph-basis states, so their action can be represented as permutations of graph-basis labels. Moreover, this useful gate set admits a compact factorized description determined by simple graph-theoretic features. This structure also allows, after some initial cached precomputation, drastically lower computational complexity for simulating a gate. We further organize these operations over local-complementation (LC) orbits using minimum-edge representatives (MERs), which let us design purification circuits that apply to all locally equivalent graph states (up to a basis change). Using this framework, we optimize noisy finite-size multipartite distillation circuits for several graph-state families. Numerical results show that the resulting graph-preserving circuits can outperform standard recurrence-based purification protocols under realistic gate and measurement noise. Our results establish LC-orbit structure and factorized graph-preserving operations as practical tools for scalable, topology-aware and hardware-constrained graph-state distillation protocol design. Our work can also be interpreted as a graph-based heuristic for finding transversal gates.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-24

The one-point Schreier Poisson boundary of Thompson's group $F$

arXiv:2606.23896v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We identify the Poisson boundary of the one-point Schreier-chain random walk obtained by projecting the simple symmetric random walk on Thompson's group $F$ to the dyadic orbit point $1/2$. For the associated simple labelled-generator walk on the dyadic Schreier graph, the full Poisson boundary is the skeleton end boundary. The proof combines the known description of this Schreier graph as a binary-tree skeleton with recurrent one-dimensional ray attachments with an explicit trace computation. After tracing to the grey skeleton and deleting holding probabilities, the walk becomes a reversible nearest-neighbor walk on the rooted binary tree with two unequal classes of edge conductance. This reduces the boundary identification to standard Poisson–Martin theory for transient walks on trees and leaves a finite electrical-network calculation for the harmonic measure. Following Kaimanovich's coding of skeleton ends by odd 2-adic integers [{Groups, Graphs and Random Walks}, London Math. Soc. Lecture Note Ser.~436, pp.~300–342, 2017], the hitting measure is a biased Bernoulli product measure with explicitly computed bias. It is singular with respect to Haar measure, has full topological support, and is exact-dimensional; these properties and the exact constants are proved here.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Show the Signal, Hide the Noise: Spectral Forcing for Pixel-Space Diffusion

Pixel-space diffusion models are trained on full-bandwidth noisy images, yet the useful signal available to the denoiser is strongly frequency dependent. Under rectified-flow diffusion and natural-image power-law spectra, the per-band data-to-noise contour $k^{*}(t) = (1-t)^{-2/\alpha}$ separates a signal-bearing low-frequency region from a noise-dominated high-frequency region at each time $t$. We show that this implicit coarse-to-fine structure is not merely descriptive: it induces a capacity-allocation problem. A standard pixel-space denoiser must discover the moving bandwidth boundary internally and can spend computation on frequency-time regions where the optimal prediction collapses to deterministic baselines rather than data-distribution modeling. To make this boundary explicit, we introduce Spectral Forcing, a parameter-free, time-conditional 2D-DCT low-pass operator applied to the noisy input before the patch embedder. Its cutoff expands monotonically with the diffusion time and becomes the identity at the data endpoint. Through controlled synthetic experiments, we identify the regime in which the operator is beneficial: coarse patch tokenization and data whose high-frequency content is predominantly noise rather than essential signal. On ImageNet-256 with JiT-700M/32, Spectral Forcing consistently improves both FID and Inception Score across different training epochs, demonstrating robust gains throughout training; at finer tokenization, the spectral forcing is still competitive. We further insert the unchanged operator into SenseNova-U1, a unified text-to-image model, where it improves DPG-Bench and GenEval, showing that the input-side spectral prior transfers beyond class-conditional generation. These results suggest a route to capacity-efficient pixel-space diffusion by showing the signal and hiding the noise.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

FBSDiff++: Improved Frequency Band Substitution of Diffusion Features for Efficient and Highly Controllable Text-Driven Image-to-Image Translation

With large-scale text-to-image (T2I) diffusion models achieving significant advancements in open-domain image creation, increasing attention has been focused on their natural extension to the realm of text-driven image-to-image (I2I) translation, where a source image acts as visual guidance to the generated image in addition to the textual guidance provided by the text prompt. We propose FBSDiff, a novel framework adapting off-the-shelf T2I diffusion model into the I2I paradigm from a fresh frequency-domain perspective. Through dynamic frequency band substitution of diffusion features, FBSDiff realizes versatile and highly controllable text-driven I2I in a plug-and-play manner (without need for model training, fine-tuning, or online optimization), allowing appearance-guided, layout-guided, and contour-guided I2I translation by progressively substituting low-frequency band, mid-frequency band, and high-frequency band of latent diffusion features, respectively. In addition, FBSDiff flexibly enables continuous control over I2I correlation intensity simply by tuning the bandwidth of the substituted frequency band. To further promote image translation efficiency, flexibility, and functionality, we propose FBSDiff++ which improves upon FBSDiff mainly in three aspects: (1) accelerate inference speed by a large margin (8.9$\times$ speedup in inference) with refined model architecture; (2) improve the Frequency Band Substitution module to allow for input source images of arbitrary resolution and aspect ratio; (3) extend model functionality to enable localized image manipulation and style-specific content creation with only subtle adjustments to the core method. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments verify superiority of FBSDiff++ in I2I translation visual quality, efficiency, versatility, and controllability compared to related advanced approaches.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Infinitesimal Causality

arXiv:2606.24621v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper introduces a categorical account of infinitesimal causality in Frobenius Markov categories equipped with tangent-bundle semantics. IDC captures the infinitesimal layer in which interventions act as tangent deformations of copy/discard structure. Two distinct Frobenius structures interact: (1) the categorical Frobenius algebra on classical variables encoding copying, comparing, and discarding; and (2) the geometric Frobenius integrability condition, namely involutive closure of the intervention distribution, distinct from the algebraic Frobenius structure. Categorical causal sufficiency is defined as the compatibility of these two notions. A key observation is that, for structural causal models, infinitesimal causality is most naturally formulated in the slice of deterministic mechanisms over exogenous variables, with visible stochastic kernels obtained only after pushforward. Interventions are tangent vectors that deform the Frobenius copy/discard operations; their Lie brackets measure whether this deformation preserves classical information-flow structure. Pearl's do-calculus is used as a guiding example of intervention identities: ignoring irrelevant interventions corresponds to counit invariance, action/observation exchange to coproduct compatibility with pushforward, and independence to involutive bracket closure of the visible intervention distribution.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Budget-Aware Adaptive Adversarial Patches for Black-Box Object Detection

Adversarial patches pose a practical threat to modern object detectors. Prior work shows vulnerability, but three gaps limit actionable insight: (i) few score-based black-box attacks jointly optimize patch location, texture, and size under tight query budgets; (ii) success is rarely tied to the patch's visual footprint; and (iii) evaluations often conflate EOT robustness with plain-view suppression. We present \method{}, a query-efficient, budget-adaptive black-box attack that couples a lightweight Contextual Thompson-Sampling placer with NES-style pixel updates, growing the patch only when progress stalls. Reporting is anchored by a strict plain-image suppression test; EOT is audited but never used as a substitute for success, and optional appearance/printability weights expose strength–visibility trade-offs. Across YOLOv5, Faster R-CNN, and YOLOS, \method{} achieves strong suppression on CNN-based detectors and substantial suppression on the transformer-based detector, using compact patches and exposing clear query–footprint trade-offs relative to fixed-size and heuristic baselines. A print–capture pilot further shows transfer across unseen physical objects and viewpoints.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

HeatKV: Head-tuned KV-cache Compression for Visual Autoregressive Modeling

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently demonstrated impressive image generation quality while maintaining low latency. However, they suffer from severe KV-cache memory constraints, often requiring gigabytes of memory per generated image. We introduce HeatKV, a novel compression method that adapts cache allocation in each head based on its attention to previously generated scales. Using a small offline calibration set, the attention heads are ranked according to their attention scores over prior scales. Based on this ranking, we construct a static pruning schedule tailored to a given memory budget. Applied to the Infinity-2B model, HeatKV achieves $2 \times$ higher compression ratio in memory allocation for KV cache compared to existing methods, while maintaining similar or better image fidelity, prompt alignment and human perception score. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) for VAR model KV-cache compression, showcasing the effectiveness of fine-grained, head-specific cache allocation. Code and calibration script available at https://github.com/arm-research/heatkv.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Avatar V: Scaling Video-Reference Avatar Video Generation

Generating avatar videos that are not merely visually similar to a target individual but behaviorally recognizable, faithfully reproducing their talking rhythm, gestural tendencies, and expression dynamics, remains an open challenge. Existing methods predominantly condition on single static images, which provide insufficient identity information and cannot capture dynamic motion traits, while standard pixel-level objectives underserve the perceptually critical facial regions that determine avatar fidelity. We present Avatar V, a production-scale framework that addresses these limitations through video-reference-conditioned identity modeling. Rather than compressing identity into fixed-size embeddings, the model conditions directly on the full token sequence of a reference video, learning to reproduce both static identity attributes (facial geometry, skin texture) and dynamic behavioral patterns (talking rhythm, micro-expressions) through attention over the reference context. We introduce Sparse Reference Attention, an asymmetric mechanism achieving linear-complexity conditioning on arbitrarily long references; a motion representation stream enabling closed-loop talking style transfer; and an identity-aware super-resolution refiner inheriting the full reference conditioning. These are supported by a data engine curating 100M+ training clips from 50M raw videos, and a five-stage training pipeline with flow matching pre-training, personality fine-tuning, two-phase distillation (>10x acceleration), and RLHF alignment, deployed across thousands of GPUs. Avatar V generates 1080p videos of unlimited duration, achieving state-of-the-art identity preservation, lip synchronization, and generation quality on our cross-scene benchmark, consistently outperforming leading systems including Seedance 2.0, Kling O3 Pro, Veo 3.1, and OmniHuman 1.5 in both automated metrics and human evaluation.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Symplectic coherence: a measure of position-momentum correlations in quantum states

arXiv:2507.15738v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The interdependence of position and momentum, as highlighted by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, is a cornerstone of quantum physics. Yet, position-momentum correlations have received little systematic attention. Motivated by recent developments in bosonic quantum physics that underscore their relevance in quantum thermodynamics, metrology, and computing, we establish a general framework to study and quantify position-momentum correlations in quantum states. We introduce symplectic coherence, a faithful and easily computable measure defined as the Frobenius norm of the block of the covariance matrix encoding position-momentum correlations, and demonstrate that symplectic coherence is monotone under relevant operations and robust under small perturbations. Furthermore, using a recent mapping by Barthe et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 134, 070604) which relates the covariance matrix of a bosonic state to the density matrix of a finite-dimensional system, we show that position-momentum correlations correspond to beyond-classical correlations in a virtual finite-dimensional quantum state, with symplectic coherence mapping naturally to geometric quantum discord. Taking energy constraints into account, we determine the maximal position-momentum correlations achievable at fixed energy, revealing structural insights about the corresponding optimal states. Finally, we illustrate the operational relevance of symplectic coherence through several examples in quantum information tasks and quantum thermodynamics. In the process, we establish new technical results on matrix norms and quantum covariance matrices, and demonstrate the conceptual significance of viewing covariance matrices as density matrices of virtual quantum states.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A 0-1 Law for Multifractal Spectra via the HGDS Scale Derivative

arXiv:2606.15850v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that the multifractal spectrum D(h,omega) of a stochastic process is almost surely deterministic under a scale decorrelation condition on the HGDS scale derivative. The key difficulty is that the pointwise Hölder exponent lives in the germ sigma-algebra, where classical 0-1 laws do not reach. We get around this by working with the geometry accumulation integral G_Lambda, which is a genuine Lebesgue integral over scales and concentrates almost surely. The boundary case – log-correlated fields – is sharp: the variance summability condition fails exactly there.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Data Augmentations for Data-Constrained Language Model Pretraining

As AI labs approach a data ceiling where compute capacity outpaces the rate of new high-quality text generation, language model pretraining is shifting toward a data-constrained, compute-abundant regime that demands productive multi-epoch training on fixed corpora. Standard autoregressive (AR) pretraining overfits severely in this setting, reaching its optimum early and then continuously deteriorating. We investigate data augmentation as a regularizer to mitigate this overfitting and enable productive training for hundreds of epochs on the same data. We introduce three orthogonal categories of augmentation for AR pretraining: token-level noise (masking, random replacement), sequence permutations (right-to-left prediction, Fill-in-the-Middle), and target offset prediction ($x_{t+i}$ for $i > 1$). Through systematic ablations, we find that individual augmentations delay overfitting and lower validation loss relative to the baseline, with random token replacement achieving the best minimum loss among individual methods. Combining augmentation categories further lowers the minimum validation loss. Our experiments demonstrate that data augmentations mitigate AR pretraining's data inefficiency and offer a promising solution to the data-constrained regime. All code and data are available at https://github.com/michaelchen-lab/data-augmentations-for-pretraining

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory

arXiv:2509.06697v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting remains a challenging problem, particularly for emerging economies, where the observed time series exhibit pronounced long-memory dependence, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity to macro-financial drivers. Classical models such as ARFIMA capture long-range persistence but fail to adequately represent nonlinear relationships, while modern machine learning approaches often neglect the underlying long-memory structure in macroeconomic series. To address this gap, we propose a Neural AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (NARFIMA) model that integrates ARFIMA-based long-memory modeling with neural networks for nonlinear function approximation, while incorporating exogenous macroeconomic and uncertainty indicators. The framework provides a unified approach for capturing persistence, nonlinear dynamics, and external shocks. We establish asymptotic stationarity of the NARFIMA process and develop conformal prediction intervals for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Empirical results for BRIC exchange rates show that NARFIMA consistently outperforms a broad range of forecasting benchmarks across multiple horizons, underscoring the importance of explicitly modeling long-memory dependence in exchange rate dynamics. The `narfima' R package provides an implementation of our approach.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606.19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Dual-Granularity Orthogonal Disentanglement for Generalizable Audio Deepfake Detection

arXiv:2606.16532v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Audio deepfake detectors often fail to generalize across speakers, as they learn speaker-identity features rather than synthesis artifacts, known as implicit identity leakage. Existing methods address this but incur architectural complexity or training instability. This paper proposes a dual-granularity orthogonal disentanglement framework enforcing feature independence at two levels: sample-level cosine orthogonality captures directional decorrelation, while batch-level cross-covariance regularization eliminates linear correlations across embedding dimensions. A curriculum disentanglement schedule progressively strengthens the orthogonality constraint without auxiliary networks or adversarial dynamics. Experiments on ASVspoof 2019 LA, ASVspoof 2021 DF, and In-the-Wild datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves 1.35%, 7.88%, and 21.58% equal error rates (EER), respectively, surpassing gradient reversal disentanglement by 2.60% absolute on cross-dataset transfer.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

MAMVI: 3D Test-Time Adaptation via Masked Multi-View Point Clouds

3D point cloud models suffer significant performance degradation under distribution shifts caused by sensor noise, occlusions, and environmental changes. Test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a practical paradigm for mitigating this issue during inference. Recently, leveraging multi-view augmentation has shown promise in improving 3D TTA performance. However, existing multi-view approaches are often constrained by sequential optimization that treats each view independently. This sequential optimization leads to substantial inference latency due to repetitive optimization steps, making real-time adaptation impractical. To address this, we propose Masked Multi-View Test-Time Adaptation (MAMVI), which replaces sequential optimization with a unified single-step adaptation. Specifically, MAMVI utilizes a hybrid masking strategy that combines fixed ratios for stability with Beta-distributed sampling for diversity. By aggregating losses across multiple views, MAMVI performs adaptation through a single backward pass based on multi-view consensus. Additionally, a confidence-based adaptive learning rate is used to dynamically adjust the adaptation intensity for each sample. Extensive experiments on ModelNet-40C, ShapeNet-C, and ScanObjectNN-C demonstrate that MAMVI achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on ShapeNet-C and ScanObjectNN-C. Moreover, it remains competitive on ModelNet-40C while delivering 4.9-8.9 times faster inference, making it highly suitable for real-time applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/Inseok-kong/MAMVI

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

BusterX++: Towards Unified Cross-Modal AI-Generated Content Detection and Explanation with MLLM

The rapid advancement of generative AI has substantially improved image and video synthesis, amplifying the risk of multimodal visual misinformation. Recent MLLMs have shown promise for transparent AI-generated content detection through reasoning and explanation, yet existing approaches largely treat image and video forensics as isolated tasks, leaving cross-modal synergies underexplored. To address this, we present BusterX++, a unified MLLM for joint image and video detection with interpretable reasoning. We also introduce GenBuster-Bench++, a meticulously curated, difficulty-aligned benchmark containing balanced image and video samples spanning recent generation models and diverse real-world scenarios. Using this controlled setting, we revisit the widely adopted $SFT \rightarrow RL$ post-training paradigm. Notably, our findings demonstrate that a single-stage, pure RL strategy driven strictly by sparse outcome rewards consistently matches or surpasses a strong SFT+RL baseline across both unified and single-modality settings. Our key insight reveals that SFT imposes lower policy entropy, which restricts the policy search space and dampens exploratory freedom. In contrast, single-stage pure RL maintains higher policy entropy throughout training, effectively unlocking the spontaneous emergence of cross-modal capability transfer between image and video forensics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BusterX++ achieves state-of-the-art performance, highlighting the powerful potential of RL for unified cross-modal visual reasoning.