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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

VOID: Defeating Unauthorized Mimicry in Latent Diffusion Models

While Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) have revolutionized visual synthesis, they are increasingly exploited for unauthorized mimicry of individuals. Existing defenses inject deceptive perturbations to steer the generated images toward irrelevant targets. However, this approach hinges on an ungrounded assumption: subtle perturbations can maintain their deceptive efficacy throughout an LDM's extensive generation process. In reality, the model's innate restoration mechanism will remove such perturbations and cause individual identities to re-emerge in the images generated. We propose VOID, a defense framework that overcomes this conundrum by manipulating an LDM's intrinsic stochasticity. VOID perturbs the diffusion pipeline in two novel ways: 1) amplifying the latent encoding errors to shatter an image's semantic structure, and 2) counteracting the target guidance signals to suppress the model's restoration capabilities. This results in a semantic corruption that thwarts any unauthorized mimicry. Notably, the security gain does not come at the price of visual utility, as VOID simultaneously manages to confine perturbations to human-imperceptible regions of protected images. Our comprehensive evaluation of 24 state-of-the-art defenses against 10 mimicry attacks on 5 datasets demonstrates VOID's unprecedented protection power: it increases the average Frechet Inception Distance (FID) from 113 to 365, a 223% improvement over the strongest defense to date.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A polarity-aware multi-relational model for the signed interaction prediction in biological networks

arXiv:2407.07357v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Predicting signed interactions in biological networks is crucial for understanding drug mechanisms and facilitating drug repurposing. While deep graph models have demonstrated success in modeling complex biological systems, existing approaches often fail to distinguish between positive and negative interactions, limiting their utility for precise pharmacological predictions. In this study, we propose a novel deep graph model, PAMR (polarity-aware multi-relational model), designed to predict both polar (e.g., activation, inhibition) and non-polar (e.g., binding, affect) chemical-gene interactions. Our model integrates graph convolutional networks with tensor decomposition to enhance feature representation and incorporates a conflict-aware sampling strategy to resolve polarity ambiguities. We introduce new evaluation metrics, polarity discrimination score (PDS) and CP@100, to assess the model's ability to differentiate interaction types. Experimental results demonstrate that PAMR outperforms baseline models, achieving superior classification accuracy and improved discrimination of polar edges. Specifically, PAMR-CL attains a Macro AUROC of 0.9072 and CP@100 of 0.974, surpassing RGCN, GraphSAGE, TransE, and BioNet baselines. A case study on nicotine further identifies two novel chemical-gene suppression links, S100A6 and SPP1, that are corroborated by independent experimental literature. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of subgraph components on predictive performance, revealing that additional network structures do not always enhance accuracy. These findings highlight the importance of polarity-aware modeling in drug discovery and network pharmacology, providing a scalable computational framework for polarity-aware chemical-gene interaction prediction and network pharmacology analysis.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

When More Documents Hurt RAG: Mitigating Vector Search Dilution with Domain-Scoped, Model-Agnostic Retrieval

Retrieval-augmented generation degrades when scaled to large, heterogeneous document collections, where dense similarity loses discriminative power, and top-k retrieval increasingly returns semantically similar but contextually incorrect chunks. We refer to this failure mode as vector search dilution. Even when using hybrid dense+sparse retrieval, we observed this firsthand in a deployed Wyoming Department of Transportation corpus, where scaling from 54 to 1,128 documents (88,907 chunks) reduced accuracy from 75% to below 40%. To address this dilution, we propose MASDR-RAG ( Multi-Agent Scoped Domain Retrieval for RAG) and evaluate it on 200 expert-validated queries across five LLM backbones, six corpora, and two index stacks. Our results indicate that domain scoping using organizational metadata is the key fix, significantly improving P@10 from 0.77 to 0.86 ($p < 0.05$). Furthermore, our investigation of multi-agent orchestration revealed that a high degree of configuration dependence results –creating what we call the precision-faithfulness paradox. Based on these varied outcomes, our practical recommendation is simple: scope first, then perform a single synthesis call, reserving full multi-agent orchestration for genuinely multi-domain corpora paired with native-tool-call backbones. Code and Data will be made public upon acceptance.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Quantum Occam Learning: Sample-Supported Expressibility for Circuit-Based Quantum Learning

arXiv:2606.12211v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A central principle in quantum machine learning is that an ansatz should be expressive enough to represent the quantum data of interest. Yet, the expressibility is statistically meaningful only insofar as it can be learned from finitely many copies of an unknown quantum state. In this work, we develop an information-theoretic Occam theory for quantum data generated by finite-size quantum circuits. For the class $S_{n,G}$ of $n$-qubit pure states preparable with at most $G$ two-qubit gates, a metric-entropy argument gives the realizable sample law $\widetilde{\Theta}(G/\epsilon^2)$ in the circuit-limited regime. For an arbitrary source $\hat{\rho}$, we introduce the best $G$-gate approximation error $d_G(\hat{\rho})$ and the approximate circuit complexity $C_\eta(\hat{\rho})$. We prove an agnostic quantum Occam theorem: with $M$ copies, one can learn up to the best $G$-gate approximation error plus a statistical penalty $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{G/M})$. We then remove the need to know $G$ in advance through an adaptive model-selection theorem whose oracle inequality selects the circuit complexity justified by the data. Matching lower bounds yield a sample-supported expressibility law: at trace-distance accuracy $\epsilon$, $M$ samples can support only $G_supported \simeq M\epsilon^2$ gates, up to logarithmic factors and tomography saturation at $2^n$. Thus, the circuit complexity becomes an adaptive statistical resource rather than a static promise. Our framework turns bounded circuit complexity into a model-selection principle for quantum machine learning.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Misinformation Propagation in Benign Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent systems, in which multiple large language model agents solve problems through turn-based interaction, are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings such as medical diagnosis, legal analysis, and forensic decision-making. Their reliability can be at risk when single agents reason from incorrect or misleading context, e.g., from tool calls, since errors may propagate through agent interactions. This work studies this risk by injecting intent-based misinformation into benign single-agent and multi-agent systems across reasoning, knowledge, and alignment tasks. We find that misinformation can degrade single-agent performance and persists across multi-agent debate, with agents often retaining answers introduced by misinformed peers. Nevertheless, multi-agent debate reduces the resulting performance degradation compared to single-agent prompting, especially when most agents are not exposed to misinformation. Robustness depends on group composition and decision protocol. Consensus can be more stable than voting under peer pressure, while majorities can often steer misinformed agents back toward correct answers. Our results show that misinformation robustness in multi-agent systems depends on the underlying model and also on how agents exchange information and aggregate decisions.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

The Accountability Paradox: How Platform API Restrictions Undermine AI Transparency Mandates

arXiv:2505.11577v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent application programming interface (API) restrictions on major social media platforms challenge compliance with the EU Digital Services Act [20], which mandates data access for algorithmic transparency. We develop a structured audit framework to assess the growing misalignment between regulatory requirements and platform implementations. Our comparative analysis of X/Twitter, Reddit, TikTok, and Meta identifies critical ``audit blind-spots'' where platform content moderation and algorithmic amplification remain inaccessible to independent verification. Our findings reveal an ``accountability paradox'': as platforms increasingly rely on AI systems, they simultaneously restrict the capacity for independent oversight. We propose targeted policy interventions aligned with the AI Risk Management Framework of the National Institute of Standards and Technology [80], emphasizing federated access models and enhanced regulatory enforcement.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

BigPower: Hierarchical Source-Level Module Power Estimation for CPUs with Large Language Models

arXiv:2606.13747v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate power estimation is important for understanding and optimizing CPU power behavior, yet practical workflows often rely on simulation-derived information or post-silicon analysis. In this work, we present BigPower, a hierarchical source-level surrogate model for fine-grained module-level power estimation during CPU design. BigPower leverages large language model-based representations together with architectural hierarchy, module connectivity, configuration parameters, and workload context to estimate module-level power consumption directly from source-level design information, without requiring additional simulation during inference. Experimental results in the open-source XiangShan processor family demonstrate practical fine-grained power estimation across diverse configurations and workloads, offering an efficient alternative to conventional simulation-based workflows.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Decoupled Latent Optimization of Diffusion Models for Full Waveform Inversion

arXiv:2606.14139v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Full waveform inversion (FWI) recovers subsurface velocity from seismic recordings by solving a severely ill-posed, nonconvex PDE-constrained optimization. Classical regularizers stabilize the inversion but fail to reproduce realistic geological structures; recent diffusion-prior methods improve realism at the cost of a fragile trade-off between data fidelity and prior consistency. We propose Decoupled Latent Optimization (DLO), which relaxes the standard latent-optimization formulation into a quadratic-penalty objective over an auxiliary physical variable and a latent variable. The data-fidelity gradient acts in physical space, the diffusion sampler contributes only through a decoded prior sample, and the standard smoothed-velocity initialization of classical FWI is preserved. On the OpenFWI benchmark, DLO outperforms classical regularizers and existing diffusion-based methods under clean, noisy, and missing-trace acquisitions. The prior, trained on 70*70 OpenFWI models, transfers directly to the Marmousi and Overthrust benchmarks, where DLO recovers intricate fault structures and remains robust to initialization smoothing and measurement noise.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

CoreMem: Riemannian Retrieval and Fisher-Guided Distillation for Long-Term Memory in Dialogue Agents

Personalized dialogue agents require continuous long-term memory to maintain coherent interactions across multiple sessions. However, deploying these capabilities on consumer-grade hardware (e.g., 8 GB VRAM edge devices) introduces severe memory and compute bottlenecks. Existing systems typically rely on isotropic cosine similarity for retrieval and heuristic rules for context compression. These approaches lack a unified theoretical foundation, frequently suffering from the hubness problem in high-dimensional retrieval and syntactic fragmentation during compression. To overcome these limitations, we propose CoreMem, a resource-efficient edge-cloud memory architecture fundamentally unified by information geometry. First, Riemannian retrieval replaces cosine matching with a locally adaptive Fisher-Rao metric, effectively penalizing hub memories via Mahalanobis distance with O(Ndr) Woodbury acceleration for real-time search. Second, Fisher-guided discrete token distillation (FDTD) introduces a hierarchical sentence-to-token compression mechanism. It derives sensitivity scores from Fisher information traces, providing a principled compression-KL tradeoff augmented with explicit structural syntax protection. Evaluated on the LOCOMO and LongMemEval-S benchmarks, CoreMem achieves strong accuracy improvements, yielding substantial gains in Open-domain (+4.51 pp) and Temporal (+4.17 pp) reasoning. Extensive profiling confirms that CoreMem operates seamlessly within a strict 8 GB VRAM budget, successfully bridging the gap between resource-constrained edge devices and the demand for theoretically grounded, lifelong memory agents.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Mixtures Closest to a Given Measure: A Semidefinite Programming Approach

arXiv:2509.22879v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mixture models, such as Gaussian mixture models, are widely used in machine learning to represent complex data distributions. A key challenge, especially in high-dimensional settings, is to determine the mixture order and estimate the mixture parameters. We study the problem of approximating a target measure, available only through finitely many of its moments, by a mixture of distributions from a parametric family (e.g., Gaussian, exponential, Poisson), with approximation quality measured by the 2-Wasserstein or the total variation distance. Unlike many existing approaches, the parameter set is not assumed to be finite; it is modeled as a compact basic semi-algebraic set. We introduce a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with asymptotic convergence to the desired optimal value. In addition, when a certain rank condition is satisfied, the convergence is even finite and recovery of an optimal mixing measure is obtained. We also present an application to clustering, where our framework serves either as a stand-alone method or as a preprocessing step that yields both the number of clusters and strong initial parameter estimates, thereby accelerating convergence of standard (local) clustering algorithms.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

HOLMES: Evaluating Higher-Order Logical Reasoning in LLMs

arXiv:2606.23238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Logical reasoning is essential for reliable AI, yet existing benchmarks are largely first-order-logic-centric, focusing on object-level deduction over fixed predicates. This misses many realistic scenarios where models must reason over rules, predicates, functions, constraints, and decision procedures themselves. We introduce HOLMES (Higher-Order Logic Meets real-world Explainable Symbolic reasoning), the first real-world benchmark for higher-order symbolic reasoning in LLMs, containing 1379 instances. Built on higher-order logic, HOLMES pairs natural-language problems with HOL formalizations, ground-truth answers, verifiable reasoning traces, and fine-grained controllable reasoning factors across law and finance. Experiments show that current LLMs still struggle on HOLMES, with an average accuracy of only 50.64% and the best model reaching 59.54%. Our analyses further reveal that high final-answer accuracy can mask shortcut reasoning in conflict-resolution settings, while performance drops sharply under scope-conditioned and compositional reasoning. These findings identify higher-order symbolic reasoning as a key bottleneck for building reliable and verifiable LLMs. The project code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/wuyucheng2002/HOLMES.

12.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Functions of Bounded Variation and Point Processes

arXiv:2606.08304v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the analytical properties of functions of bounded variation and the statistical behavior of hyperuniform point processes. We establish several characterization formulas for the jump part of the gradient of a bounded variation function, extending and unifying previous results by Beretti–Gennaioli and Dávila. In particular, we provide new expressions for the $L^2$-jump of the gradient using both difference quotients and Fourier transform methods. Furthermore, we connect these analytic structures to the theory of hyperuniform point processes. By analyzing the variance of linear statistics associated with bounded variation functions, we provide asymptotic estimates that depend on the specific classification of the hyperuniformity of the point process. The results show how the regularity and jump discontinuities of a function dictate the growth rate of fluctuations in point processes. Finally, we introduce an averaged quadratic BMO-type oscillation functional over translated and rotated cube partitions, similar to the one recently studied by Ambrosio et al., and prove, using results from point process, that it converges to an explicit dimensional constant times the $L^2-$jump, giving in particular a further new characterization of the perimeter of a set.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Coping in Crisis: Computational Modeling of Coping Styles in Digital Crisis Discourse During the 2023 Turkiye Earthquake

How do people cope when disaster strikes and can we detect it at scale, in real time, from what they write? This study addresses that question using over one million Turkish-language tweets posted in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye, which unfolded in a deeply polarized political context just months before a national election. Drawing on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) coping theory, we develop a multi-label BERTurk classifier to detect three coping styles (problem-focused, emotion-focused, and meaning-making) across four theoretically motivated crisis phases. BERTurk achieves a macro F1 of 0.693, substantially outperforming a zero-shot mDeBERTa baseline (macro F1 = 0.324). Applied to the full corpus, the classifier reveals a clear temporal trajectory: problem-focused coping dominates the urgency phase and declines sharply, emotion-focused coping rises and stabilizes, and meaning-making increases monotonically. Anger correlates most strongly with meaning-making (Spearman r = 0.387), suggesting it functions as a mobilizing force toward blame attribution rather than practical action. These findings demonstrate that coping theory can be reliably operationalized in real-world digital crisis data and that doing so can help humanitarian organizations tailor their responses to where a population actually is.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

The quantum harmonic oscillator and the real Hilbert space

arXiv:2606.12060v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The harmonic oscillator is considered within generalized frameworks using complex and quaternionic numbers. The classical oscillator is considered in terms of a complex position function, and quantum oscillators are examined in terms of complex wave functions, and in terms of quaternionic wave functions as well. Both of the quantum solutions are obtained within the real Hilbert space formalism. The results reveal the complex and quaternionic descriptions as suitable frameworks for non-stationary processes, including damped oscillations, forced oscillations, and additionally self-interacting processes that cannot be appropriately described otherwise.

15.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

Physics-Driven Zero-Shot Reconstruction of Isotropic 3D Fluorescence Microscopy under Undersampled Acquisition

Three-dimensional (3D) imaging represents the development of next generation of fluorescence microscopy. However, routine axial down-sampling makes isotropic resolution unrealistic. Here, we propose DeepUI, a physical zero-shot framework designed to achieve isotropic 3D fluorescence images from a low axial sampling rate. DeepUI fully leverages the intrinsic characteristics of 3D images through physics-guided degradation, which incorporates spatial-frequency joint learning to generate a scaled optical transfer function, combined with noise degradation and an up-sampling branch. Typically requiring just 5 minutes for training and 0.5 minutes for high-throughput and fast prediction, we demonstrate the superior performance of DeepUI to get isotropic results, and the exclusivity to axial down-sampling conditions, even in more challenging conditions, including defocused background, noise, and resolution blur.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimal Calibration of Quantum Network Links

arXiv:2606.18167v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The reliable distribution of entanglement is essential for the effective operation of quantum networks. Due to fundamental differences between quantum and classical communication systems, it is necessary to develop specialised algorithms and protocols that also account for quantum-specific constraints. In this work, we focus on the issue of recalibration. As suggested by recent experimental studies, the process of local entanglement generation in a quantum link degrades over time due to environmental changes that have to be estimated and compensated via a calibration operation, during which the link is not available. Therefore, in such a quantum network, every link alternates between an activation period, during which it operates normally, and a calibration period, during which it cannot participate in the end-to-end entanglement distribution, thereby creating a trade-off between link quality (the fidelity of generated pairs, which decays during activation) and availability (the fraction of time the link is usable, which calibration reduces). We develop analytically a protocol for optimally assigning activation periods to each link in linear quantum repeater chains, subject to any general end-to-end fidelity requirements and local initial fidelity thresholds. Building on this foundation, we extend to general quantum networks, where multiple paths may cross at common links, proposing a heuristic approach evaluated in simulations and compared with a benchmark, numerical approach, and theoretical bounds.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

How Well Do Large Language Models Capture Human Personality?

arXiv:2606.18263v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human populations via persona prompting, often under the assumptions that richer persona descriptions improve behavioral fidelity, similarly sized attribute combinations are equally simulatable, and persona definitions generalize across tasks. In this work, we formalize these assumptions and systematically evaluate them across multiple architectures, scales, and simulation settings. We identify a fundamental limitation we term persona manifold collapse, where increasingly expressive persona specifications lead to systematic contraction of representational and behavioral diversity. Across models, increasing persona complexity consistently reduces inter-persona separation in latent space and weakens behavioral differentiation in downstream simulation tasks. These effects persist across multiple analyses as richer personas fail to preserve human subgroup disagreement, performance varies across attribute combinations of similar size, and adding descriptive detail often degrades rather than improves simulation fidelity. Surprisingly, simple Age-Gender personas consistently outperform richly specified Ideal Customer Profiles (ICPs) across industries, achieving substantially higher downstream prediction accuracy. We find that collapse is not uniform across attributes. Certain combinations remain behaviorally stable and preserve stronger alignment with human responses, forming localized regions we term alignment bridges. Together, our results provide empirical and conceptual foundations for understanding the limits of persona-conditioned simulation, highlighting the need for representation-aware persona construction rather than increasing persona expressivity alone.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

From Parasocial Scripts to Dyadic Persistence in Autonomous AI-Agent Communities

While parasocial interactions (PSIs) and parasocial relationships (PSRs) have been studied in conventional media settings, we investigate whether PSI- (colloquial) relational cues also exist in online communities where both sides are autonomous AI agents. We analyze 4,434 posts and 50,338 comments from Moltbook through three theory-based textual indicators: attachment/intimacy language, reciprocity bids, and self-identification to original poster (OP). The combined results across methods based on keyword matching, few-shot large language model (LLM) annotation, and grouped-context LLM annotation reveal that PSI colloquial cues prevail and are strongly associated with OP re-engagement and a reciprocal reply structure. These results are robust across negative controls, nullification, clustered-standard-error re-estimation, and multiple-testing correction. A dyadic persistence test further affirms reciprocity bids aligned with sustained OP-involving mutual recurrence, providing empirical evidence for bridging interaction-level PSI scripts with PSR-consistent repeated dyadic patterns. We interpret the evidence as a behavioral structure in discourse by LLM-enabled agents.

19.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Bound State Solutions of the Relativistic Finite-difference Equation for the Ring-shaped Quesne Oscillator Potential

arXiv:2606.12082v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We solve exactly the relativistic finite-difference equation for the quantum three-dimensional ring-shaped Quesne oscillator potential. Our investigation is based on a finite-difference version of relativistic quantum mechanics. So-called relativistic configurational r-space is a key concept here. We show that the radial wavefunctions and angular wavefunctions are expressed through the continuous dual Hahn polynomials and Jacobi polynomials, respectively. A discrete energy spectrum has been found. The radial wave functions and energy spectrum have the correct nonrelativistic limit. We also build a dynamical symmetry group SU (1, 1) for the radial part of the equation of motion, which allows us to find the energy spectrum purely algebraically.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Physics in 2-Steps: Locking Motion Priors Before Visual Refinement Erases Them

Image-to-Video diffusion models leverage input images to generate visually stunning content, yet frequently produce motion that violates physical laws. We reveal a surprising finding: a 2-step generation often exhibits better physical consistency than a 50-step output from the same model. Through spectral analysis, we trace this to phase erosion during denoising; the phase degrades significantly (dropping by $\approx 18\%$ from step 2 to step 50), whereas the magnitude remains relatively stable. Building on this insight, we propose PhaseLock, a training-free framework that preserves the valid motion priors from few-step inference throughout the denoising trajectory. Rather than relying on full-step inference for physical consistency, PhaseLock extracts a motion prior from just 2 steps and enforces it onto high-fidelity generation via Latent Delta Guidance. Our approach effectively mitigates phase degradation, improving physical consistency by an average of 6.2 points across diverse models while largely maintaining visual fidelity, with negligible overhead ($1.06\times$ time, $1.02\times$ memory) and reduced reliance on expensive external guidance methods ($\sim5\times$ time). Project Page: https://dnwjddl.github.io/phaselock

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum Nonlocal Games on Graph Ensembles

arXiv:2606.16784v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum entanglement is one of the most striking discoveries in all of science. This effect allows, for instance, two spatially separated agents to coordinate their actions, without communication, to an extent that is both counter-intuitive, and provably impossible by any other physical means. A recently discovered example is that of mobile agents (players) performing spatial coordination tasks such as rendezvous, where the agents aim to meet on a network without communication. Until now, demonstrations of this advantage have relied on highly idealized conditions: agents are assumed to have complete knowledge of the topography, and experiments have been restricted to simulations using data generated by qubits within a single quantum processor. Here we address both limitations by developing a theory for graph ensembles that capture topographical uncertainty and by experimentally demonstrating the advantage in rendezvous scenarios between physically separated ion-trap systems with access to remote entanglement. Moreover, we simulate a broader set of problems on superconducting hardware. Surprisingly, when players are given the ability to gather more local information the quantum advantage increases – a feat impossible by classical means. Our findings establish a concrete route toward practical quantum advantages in motion coordination problems. More broadly, they point to a new way of using portable quantum devices to enhance collective decision-making in uncertain environments.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.13571v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

A Controlled Human Malaria Infection model for relapsing Plasmodium vivax

Background Plasmodium vivax malaria relapses are a major source of morbidity and onward transmission of infection. The underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and current therapies sub-optimal. We examined the safety and feasibility of a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) model for relapsing P. vivax. Methods We conducted an open-label, proof-of-concept, CHMI study of relapsing P. vivax. Healthy, malaria-naive, Duffy-positive adults aged 18-45 years with extensive CYP2D6 metaboliser phenotype and normal blood glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) levels were recruited in Oxford, UK. Mosquito-bite CHMI was performed in Nijmegen, The Netherlands, using Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes infected with PvW1, a clonal isolate of P. vivax from Thailand. All follow-up visits were conducted in Oxford, UK. Primary P. vivax infections (qPCR > 500 genome copies/mL) were treated with artemether-lumefantrine (80mg/480mg at 8, 24, 36, 48 and 60 hours). From Day 28 following CHMI, participants attended a fortnightly clinic for clinical review and qPCR blood sampling, with additional assessments performed for any reported symptoms. P. vivax relapse infections (qPCR > 500 genome copies/mL) were treated with artemether-lumefantrine as per primary infection. Definitive anti-malarial treatment with atovaquone-proguanil (1000mg/400mg once daily for three days) and primaquine (0{middle dot}5 mg/kg/day for 14 days) was administered six months following CHMI, regardless of parasitaemia or symptoms. The primary objective was to assess the safety, feasibility and frequency of relapsing P. vivax after CHMI. Remote follow-up (5 years) is ongoing. The study is registered with ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN48625883). Findings 20 participants were screened for eligibility from 21 January 2025. Five participants (median age 22 years) underwent CHMI (five infected mosquitoes per participant) on 15 April 2025. All participants developed primary P. vivax infection and experienced at least one relapse infection. Two participants experienced a second relapse. Overall incidence rate was 3{middle dot}6 relapse infections per person-year. Solicited adverse events were mild or moderate and there were no serious adverse events. Definitive anti-malarial treatment was administered to all participants. One participant experienced primaquine-induced methaemoglobinaemia, resolving with early discontinuation of treatment (total dose 5{middle dot}3 mg/kg). To date, more than six months after primaquine treatment, no further relapses have been recorded. Interpretation CHMI of relapsing P. vivax is safe and feasible, allowing exploration of the mechanisms underlying relapse infections and providing a platform for future anti-relapse efficacy studies. Funding European Union Horizon Europe programme and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) via OptiVivax consortium; UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Biomedical Research Centre: Oxford; and UK Medical Research Council.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Cognitive Debt: AI as Intellectual Leverage and the Dynamics of Systemic Fragility

Authors:

arXiv:2606.15078v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a formal theory of cognitive debt: the stock of unverified reasoning obligations that accumulates when individuals use AI as a substitute rather than a complement for first-principles cognition. The model features two state variables per agent, cognitive capital and cognitive debt, and a multiplicative production technology in which cognitive capital functions as collateral that determines the return to AI adoption. We establish six propositions. Rational agents incur positive cognitive debt because the costs are deferred, partially external, and masked by short-run productivity gains. Tranquil periods lower subjective risk assessments, raise AI substitution intensity, and compound leverage, generating a cognitive Minsky moment in which subjective risk falls while true systemic fragility rises. Expected crisis losses are convex in aggregate leverage. Post-crisis, output-target pressure can produce a false-correction loop in which agents patch AI failures with more AI. The decentralised equilibrium over-adopts substitutive AI relative to the social optimum because of systemic risk, cognitive public goods, and arms-race externalities. In a two-type heterogeneous-agent economy, high-cognitive-capital agents adopt AI more intensively and may eventually erode their unaided cognitive capital below that of initially lower-skilled agents.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Contextual Bandits for Maximizing Stimulated Word-of-Mouth Rewards

arXiv:2606.15146v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Stimulated word-of-mouth is a strategy that promotes information sharing through prompts or incentives. Optimizing stimulated word-of-mouth through social networks requires identifying and targeting connected users who are most susceptible to spillover, a phenomenon where the influence of recommendations extends beyond the immediate audience to impact their connected users. The probability of spillover varies across individuals, and their connections, leading to heterogeneity. Understanding and accurately estimating the spillover probabilities among users in social networks is crucial for improving the effectiveness of stimulated word-of-mouth. To address this, we present a novel contextual multi-armed bandit framework that learns individual spillover probabilities and ranks connected users to maximize rewards from stimulated word-of-mouth. Experiments on real-world network datasets demonstrate that accounting for spillover heterogeneity enhances the targeting precision of top-$k$ connected users, boosting rewards and outperforming baseline methods that do not learn individual spillover effects.