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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

AIMER: Calibration-Free Task-Agnostic MoE Expert Pruning

arXiv:2603.18492v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models increase parameter capacity without proportional per-token computation, yet deployment still requires storing the full expert pool, making expert pruning important for reducing memory and serving overhead. Existing task-agnostic expert-pruning methods are typically calibration-dependent: they estimate expert importance from routing or activation statistics on a calibration set, making pruning decisions sensitive to calibration-data variation while introducing substantial preprocessing cost. We propose AIMER (Absolute mean over root mean square IMportance for Expert Ranking), a simple calibration-free criterion that identifies more distinct experts by capturing the concentration pattern of expert weights, making it well suited for task-agnostic expert pruning. Across 7B to 47B MoE language models with distinct architectures and 16 diverse benchmarks, AIMER consistently delivers stronger capability balance across diverse tasks than existing calibration-free methods. Surprisingly, AIMER also achieves better balance than strong calibration-based expert-pruning baselines calibrated on the widely used task-agnostic C4 corpus, while requiring only 0.22–2.06 seconds to score all experts.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

The Urysohn Machine: A Metric-Topological Model of Computation

作者:

arXiv:2508.14143v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce the Urysohn Machine, an effective model of classification-oriented computation in which metric separation, frontier structure, and contraction are explicit parts of the computational state. Its basic object is a Urysohn Triple: a support region, a target partition, and a separating classifier stored in a reusable Metric Library. The topological foundation is a constructive Urysohn Realization theorem for finite simplicial settings. It builds separators from dyadic ladders of nested polyhedral regions and equips their frontiers with a chain-level calculus: frontiers are cycles, and shells between levels have boundaries given by differences of frontiers. This construction yields two related complexity measures: decision-boundary width, the geometric measure of a single classifier's boundary, and Urysohn width, the total frontier mass represented by a library or realization. We prove an Amortized Separation Theorem showing that approximating a boundary of width to accuracy requires a number of simple basis triples proportional to boundary width and inversely proportional to resolution, under explicit boundary-footprint assumptions. We also introduce a contrastive separation operator whose graph-cut functional consistently estimates decision-boundary width from sampled metric data, while its Laplacian spectrum certifies class-component structure and conductance. Finally, we analyze the dynamic Urysohn ladder and prove four guarantees: separability under quotient collapse, stability of committed frontiers, bounded capacity under contraction, and scalability with quotient distance. Together, these results give a metric-topological account of classification complexity, amortized inference, and compositional reuse that preserves classical computability while exposing geometric structure hidden by purely symbolic descriptions.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Efficient Temporal Modeling for Mobile Sleep Staging via Lightweight Random Attention

arXiv:2606.13694v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mobile sleep staging serves as a foundational infrastructure for in-home sleep monitoring and closed-loop modulation. But existing sequential models such as RNNs and Transformers are computationally expensive for mobile deployment. In this paper, we propose Random Attention (RA), a lightweight temporal modeling module based on fixed random projections, which replaces learnable sequence modeling with similarity-based aggregation. RA introduces little additional parameters beyond the epoch encoder while enabling effective temporal smoothing. We further provide a theoretical interpretation via the Random Attention Prior Kernel (RAPK), which decomposes RA into a global smoothing term and a feature similarity term, offering an interpretable view of temporal sleep structure. Experiments on Sleep-EDF-20 and Sleep-EDF-78 show that RA consistently improves epoch-wise baselines by 1-3\% in accuracy and F1 score, while achieving competitive performance compared with LSTM, GRU, and Transformer models. RA also demonstrates strong generalization across different backbone encoders and improved robustness over conventional temporal smoothing methods. These results indicate that efficient sleep staging can be achieved through lightweight similarity-based temporal aggregation, making RA suitable for real-time wearable applications.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Minimal Filling Architectures of Polynomial Neural Networks: Counterexamples, Frontier Search, and Defects

arXiv:2605.09609v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We provide counterexamples to the unimodal minimal filling architecture conjecture for polynomial neural networks (PNNs) with power activation functions. Fixing the input and output widths, the conjecture states that any minimal filling architecture has unimodal widths for the hidden layers. We found counterexamples via a frontier search, recursive dimension bounds on neurovarieties, and symbolic computation. Notably, several subarchitectures of our main example exhibit large defect, in contrast with the predominantly small-defect behavior observed in prior literature.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

A Streaming Sparse Cholesky Method for Derivative-Informed Gaussian Process Surrogates Within Digital Twin Applications

arXiv:2511.00366v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Digital twins are developed to model the behavior of a specific physical asset (or twin), and they can consist of high-fidelity physics-based models or surrogates. A highly accurate surrogate is often preferred over multi-physics models as they enable forecasting the physical twin future state in real-time. To adapt to a specific physical twin, the digital twin model must be updated using in-service data from that physical twin. In this paper, we combine and extend several previous surrogate-related advancements with the goal of demonstrating an end-to-end digital twin (DT) solution for predicting performance of an aircraft structure (the physical asset). To this end, we extend Gaussian process (GP) models to include derivative data, for improved accuracy, with dynamic updating to ingest physical twin data during service. Including derivative data, however, comes at a prohibitive cost of increased covariance matrix dimension. We circumvent this issue through our modified dynamic sparse Cholesky linear system solver. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the derivative-enhanced sparse Cholesky GP method produces improved models upon dynamic data additions. Lastly, we demonstrate the developed algorithm within a DT framework to model fatigue crack growth in an aerospace vehicle, thereby exhibiting through our assembled engineered system how digital twin technologies can be combined in practice.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

ALAS: An Automatic Latent Alignment Score for Audio Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) are extended into Speech-LLMs, and the quality of the audio–text alignment they learn affects most downstream Spoken Language Understanding (SLU) behavior. Yet despite a growth of fusion strategies, there is no standard way to measure how well a Speech-LLM internally binds audio frames to text tokens. We introduce ALAS (Automatic Latent Alignment Score), a model and task-agnostic metric that probes the LLM's per-layer hidden states, scoring the cross-modal cosine similarity between audio and text representations against a Whisper-derived reference. ALAS needs only a frozen forward pass and an off-the-shelf ASR reference, with no training or fitted classifier, and is calibrated to an interpretable uniform baseline comparable across tasks. Applying ALAS to four open-source Speech-LLMs (AF3, Qwen2-Audio, Qwen-Omni, SALMONN) across emotion recognition (IEMOCAP), open-ended SQA (LibriSQA), and multi-choice audio understanding (MMAU-speech), we find that the depth and strength of alignment reflect each model's audio-encoder design and the acoustic-versus-semantic demands of the task, and that ALAS tracks but does not duplicate task accuracy, exposing models that score well without genuinely grounding in the audio. We release ALAS as an open-source library so that practitioners can probe their own Speech-LLMs or try it on new tasks.

07.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Human migration has surged since 2000 — these maps reveal where people are going

Modelling with artificial-intelligence tools has filled gaps in migration data, revealing detailed global population movements from 1990 to 2023. Modelling with artificial-intelligence tools has filled gaps in migration data, revealing detailed global population movements from 1990 to 2023.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

How LLMs Fail and Generalize in RTL Coding for Hardware Design?

Translating sequential programming priors into the parallel temporal logic of hardware design remains a crucial bottleneck for large language models(LLM). To investigate this, we introduce a new error taxonomy grounded in problem solvability, inspired by cognitive theory. Our taxonomy categorizes failures into syntactic, semantic, solvable functional, and unsolvable functional types. Evaluations reveal a strict empirical ceiling on the VerilogEval benchmark, as frontier models plateau at a 90.8% initial pass rate. These plateaus are defined by unsolvable functional errors, exposing persistent knowledge gaps immune to test time compute scaling. Furthermore, we expose a striking surface convergence gap: optimization readily eliminates syntax errors but concurrently exacerbates deeper functional failures. Our findings demonstrate that alignment techniques merely teach models to compile. While repeated sampling strategies can patch solvable errors, register-transfer level(RTL) coding capacity remains strictly bounded by pretraining knowledge. Addressing challenges in the current LLM based hardware generation pipeline requires more studies in model reasoning rather than alignment interventions.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Emergency hub placement with a neutral-atom quantum computer

arXiv:2606.19589v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the problem of emergency operation center placement in disaster response, where a minimal number of hubs must be selected to ensure timely coverage of all affected locations. This task can be formulated as a minimum dominating set problem on a graph encoding reachability within a target response time. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical approximation framework that leverages neutral-atom quantum computers as independent set samplers. Candidate dominating sets are constructed from both small maximal independent sets and complements of large independent sets, and are subsequently refined via a lightweight classical procedure. We benchmark the approach on synthetic instances and realistic case studies, and implement it on the Fresnel quantum processor by Pasqal, solving instances of up to 100 nodes. Our results show that quantum-generated samples, despite hardware noise, enable near-optimal solutions of the placement problem. Overall, our results demonstrate that neutral-atom devices operating in analog mode can already be used to tackle graph optimization problems for real-world applications.

10.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

Hyper3D-lite: count-preserving representation auditing for long-read multi-contact genome data

作者:

Long-read and single-molecule sequencing technologies are rapidly increasing molecule-level data, with platforms such as Oxford Nanopore, PacBio HiFi, and Roche sequencing-by-expansion advancing at different technology readiness levels. In the specific context of Pore-C and HiPore-C multi-contact chromatin-conformation assays, long-read multi-contact 3D genome assays preserve molecule-level contact context, but common downstream pairwise projections can expand one multi-contact molecule into many pair records. This creates a representation problem: apparent contact evidence can increase through the counting frame before biological interpretation begins. Hyper3D-lite addresses this problem as a representation-first audit tool for read-to-fragment-style long-read multi-contact inputs. It compares all-pair projection with CPB, a count-preserving statistical accounting reference point, and separates broad software outputs from conservative higher-order candidate calls.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Critique of World Model: A Generative Latent Prediction Architecture for World Modeling

World Model, the algorithmic simulator of the real-world environment which biological agents experience and act upon, has been an emerging topic in recent years due to the rising need to develop virtual agents with artificial (general) intelligence. There has been much discussion on what a world model really is, how to build it, how to use it, and how to evaluate it. In this essay, starting from the imagination in the famed Sci-Fi classic Dune, and drawing inspiration from the concept of ``hypothetical thinking'' in psychology literature, we argue the primary goal of a world model to be {\it simulating all actionable possibilities of the real world for purposeful reasoning and acting}. We examine the key design dimensions of world modeling: data, representation, architecture, learning objective, and usage, surveying existing approaches and analyzing their tradeoffs. Building on this examination, we propose a new Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture for a general-purpose world model, based on stateful, hierarchical, multi-level, and mixed continuous/discrete representations, and a generative and self-supervised learning framework, with an outlook of a Physical, Agentic, and Nested (PAN) AGI system enabled by such a model.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

arXiv:2606.15917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Epileptogenicity alters intrahippocampal ripple propagation

Objective: Tracing the propagation of high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) aids in localizing epileptogenic regions and improving surgical outcomes. We examined how hippocampal epileptogenicity influences the propagation properties of the HFOs it generates. Methods: We analyzed non-REM sleep stereo-EEG from 49 patients (68 hemispheres) with verified hippocampal contacts. Hippocampi were stratified by excitability: 28 seizure onset zone (SOZ), 22 more-irritative non-SOZ (>6 interictal epileptiform discharges [IED]/min), and 18 less-irritative non-SOZ (

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

From Agent Traces to Trust: A Survey of Evidence Tracing and Execution Provenance in LLM Agents

arXiv:2606.04990v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM)-based agents are evolving from passive text generators into autonomous systems capable of planning, tool use, retrieval, memory access, environmental interaction, and multi-agent collaboration. These capabilities expand agent autonomy, but also make agent behavior harder to verify, debug, and audit. Final-answer accuracy alone cannot explain how an output was produced, which evidence supported each claim, whether tool calls were justified, how memory influenced later decisions, or where failures originated. This survey examines evidence tracing and execution provenance as foundations for process-level accountability in trustworthy LLM agents. We define execution provenance as the typed graph of an agent execution and evidence tracing as its projection onto evidence-support relations. This perspective connects retrieval grounding, claim support, tool-use safety, memory lineage, observability, debugging, audit, and recovery within a unified framework. We introduce a taxonomy covering trace sources, evidence and execution units, provenance relations, tracing granularity and timing, representation forms, and trust functions. We then review key methodological directions, including provenance representation, evidence attribution, tool-use provenance, runtime guardrails, provenance-bearing memory, observability, and failure diagnosis. Finally, we discuss benchmarks, datasets, metrics, and open challenges for building provenance-aware, auditable, and recoverable agent systems.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

When the Same Musical Knowledge Forgets Differently: A Clean Probe of Pathway-Dependent Forgetting

A model can learn that the piano piece Für Elise is calm and reflective by listening to the audio or by reading a text description, but does it matter which route that knowledge took when it is later at risk of being forgotten? Forgetting research in multimodal models measures what knowledge is lost under adaptation, yet has not asked whether acquisition route affects how easily that knowledge is forgotten. We call this untested premise the Pathway-Invariant Assumption. Music understanding enables a clean test because a music clip and a canonical text description can be aligned to the same perceptual content, allowing the same knowledge unit to enter a model through listening or reading while the target remains fixed. Across multiple architecturally distinct audio-language models, we observe a consistent asymmetry: text-pathway knowledge is forgotten more than matched audio-pathway knowledge under identical adaptation pressure. To attribute this effect to route rather than confounds, we introduce the Paired Pathway Controlled Protocol (PPCP), a three-phase design that establishes matched pathway baselines, activates both pathways under symmetric supervision on the same knowledge pool, and applies identical forgetting pressure to both pathways. The gap is stable across models and gain-controlled analyses, persists when contradictory overwrite is replaced by correct-label cross-domain learning, remains under single-modality pressure, and is not removed by lightweight replay. Two independent routing-depth controls confirm that the effect is not explained by architectural depth, pointing to input representation as the dominant factor. Under PPCP, our results demonstrate that forgetting is highly route-dependent, establishing acquisition route as a new analytical dimension for forgetting research and multimodal system design.

16.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Probabilistic representation and classical solutions of wave equations with complex polynomial nonlinearities

arXiv:2606.18919v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We review the probabilistic representation of solutions of wave equations with polynomial nonlinearities in spatial dimensions d=1,2,3 using stochastic branching processes. Under regularity assumptions on the initial data, we derive conditions ensuring the integrability of the corresponding Monte Carlo estimator, and the existence and smoothness of mild and classical solutions. We also present numerical results and comparisons with grid-based algorithms for the solution of nonlinear wave equations.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

On the Role of Computation in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2602.05999v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: How does the amount of compute available to a reinforcement learning (RL) policy affect its learning? Can policies using a fixed amount of parameters, still benefit from additional compute? The standard RL framework does not provide a language to answer these questions formally. Empirically, deep RL policies are often parameterized as neural networks with static architectures, conflating the amount of compute and the number of parameters. In this paper, we formalize compute bounded policies and prove that policies which use more compute can solve problems and generalize to longer-horizon tasks that are outside the scope of policies with less compute. Building on prior work in algorithmic learning and model-free planning, we propose a minimal architecture that can use a variable amount of compute. Our experiments complement our theory. On a set 31 different tasks spanning online and offline RL, we show that $(1)$ this architecture achieves stronger performance simply by using more compute, and $(2)$ stronger generalization on longer-horizon test tasks compared to standard feedforward networks or deep residual network using up to 5 times more parameters.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Best Arm Identification with Minimal Regret

arXiv:2409.18909v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Motivated by real-world applications that necessitate responsible experimentation, we introduce the problem of best arm identification (BAI) with minimal regret. This variant of the multi-armed bandit problem elegantly amalgamates two of its most ubiquitous objectives: regret minimization and BAI. More precisely, the agent's goal is to identify the best arm with a prescribed confidence level $\delta$, while minimizing the cumulative regret up to the stopping time. Focusing on single-parameter exponential families of distributions, we leverage information-theoretic techniques to establish an instance-dependent lower bound on the expected cumulative regret. Moreover, we present an impossibility result that underscores the tension between cumulative regret and sample complexity in fixed-confidence BAI. Complementarily, we design and analyze the Double KL-UCB algorithm, which achieves asymptotic optimality as the confidence level tends to zero. Notably, this algorithm employs two distinct confidence bounds to guide arm selection in a randomized manner. Our findings elucidate a fresh perspective on the inherent connections between regret minimization and BAI.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

A Controlled Benchmark of Quantum-Latent GAN Augmentation for Brain MRI

Medical image classification is often constrained by limited labeled data, motivating generative augmentation; recently, quantum generative models have been proposed for this purpose, frequently reporting accuracy gains. However, such claims are typically based on single training runs, do not match the parameter budgets of the quantum and classical generators, and do not characterize the data regime in which any benefit appears. We present a controlled benchmark that isolates the contribution of a quantum generator to brain-MRI augmentation. Images are encoded into a KL-regularized latent space in which a conditional Wasserstein GAN with gradient penalty is trained using either a variational quantum generator or a classical generator of near-identical parameter count (1648 vs. 1632). Synthetic samples are decoded and used to augment a pretrained classifier across labeled data fractions from 5% to 100%, evaluated over eight random seeds with paired significance testing (with multiple-comparison correction) and with intraset diversity and latent-distribution analyses. Across all fractions, no augmentation variant significantly outperforms real-data-only training, and the quantum and classical generators are statistically indistinguishable. Any low-data benefit behaves as regularization rather than faithful data expansion:synthetic samples are off distribution and severely mode collapsed precisely where data is scarce, and the quantum generator is no more diverse thanits classical counterpart. We release the protocol as a testbed for rigorous evaluation of quantum generative augmentation in medical imaging.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

The quantum harmonic oscillator and the real Hilbert space

arXiv:2606.12060v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The harmonic oscillator is considered within generalized frameworks using complex and quaternionic numbers. The classical oscillator is considered in terms of a complex position function, and quantum oscillators are examined in terms of complex wave functions, and in terms of quaternionic wave functions as well. Both of the quantum solutions are obtained within the real Hilbert space formalism. The results reveal the complex and quaternionic descriptions as suitable frameworks for non-stationary processes, including damped oscillations, forced oscillations, and additionally self-interacting processes that cannot be appropriately described otherwise.

21.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Metrics for Evaluating Biological AI Model Predictive Accuracy at the Data-Substrate Level

作者:

Reports in the biological literature disagree on whether a given model can predict a biological outcome from a given data sample — one study finding a model capable, another, on the same kind of data, finding it is not. This is particularly a challenge in relation to LLMs–where the models are large and opaque, with weights and training data inaccessible.textbf{ }Such disagreements cannot be settled by directly inspecting the model. To address this challenge, we considertextbf{ }an alternative approach: assessing whether the data sample is adequate to support the prediction asserted. For a given dataset, its substrate — the underlying structure of the data — determines what any model can recover, independent of architecture or capacity. At the same time, predicting the present state of a biological process and predicting the direction of its future change are different tasks; the second is supportable among AI models only where the data encode direction as determinable from the state — a property we call encoding — and is unsupportable where the same observed state precedes change in opposite directions — a property we call non-identifiability, in the informational rather than the statistical sense. We introduce two generic metrics, Predictive Blindness Risk (PBR) and Prediction Indeterminacy Measure (PIM), that evaluate a data substrate for predictive accuracy directly — without access to model weights, architecture, or training data — and locate the regions of a data substrate where a predictive claim can be supported and where it cannot. Using human biological subjects, we employ the Yale Brain Metastases Longitudinal Data (1,430 human subjects; 11,892 MRI studies; four sequences) and show that direction of change was non-identifiable across regions encompassing the majority of transitions; a nonlinear AI model gained essentially nothing over majority-direction prediction there while recovering direction near-perfectly where the state encoded it; and model accuracy tracked data-substrate resolvability continuously (Spearman {rho} = -0.95 to -1.00). The metrics adjudicate, before any model is trusted and from the data alone, where claims of predictive accuracy — of state, or of the law of change — can be supported.

22.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Controlled ion-ion interactions and cavity-enhanced emission of a coherent dinuclear Eu$^{3+}$ complex

arXiv:2606.11947v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Molecular rare-earth-ion complexes offer unique opportunities for quantum technologies by combining the intrinsic coherence properties of rare-earth ions with chemically tunable molecular environments. A crucial capability is the realization of multi-qubit architectures with defined qubit couplings to enable two-qubit quantum gates. Here, we investigate the optical coherence properties and excitation-induced interactions of two Eu$^{3+}$-based molecular complexes, comparing a mononuclear reference system with a dinuclear analogue in which two Eu$^{3+}$ ions are positioned at a well-defined intramolecular distance of about 7 Angstrom. Using cryogenic ensemble spectroscopy, including spectral hole burning, free-induction decay, and photon echo measurements at temperatures down to 100 mK, we demonstrate long optical coherence times $T_{2,o}$ of up to 9 $\mu$s. As a key step toward scalable multi-qubit architectures, a control-target sequence was implemented to probe conditional ion-ion interactions, revealing a stronger interaction-induced dephasing in the dinuclear complex. Finally, we show the integration of the dinuclear complex into a fiber-based optical microcavity, and observe an 380-fold emission enhancement of the $\mathrm{}^5\mathrm{D}_0\rightarrow\mathrm{}^7\mathrm{F}_0$ transition. Together, these results position molecular rare-earth complexes as versatile and chemically tunable building blocks for scalable quantum technologies.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

When the Next Step Is Not One Step: Distribution-Aware Execution Modeling for Concurrent Go Programs

arXiv:2606.17508v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

How reliable are LLMs when it comes to playing dice?

We investigate the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of large language models through a controlled benchmarking study on discrete probability problems. We constructed two datasets, respectively a set of standard exercises and a set of counterintuitive exercises, designed to trigger heuristic reasoning, and evaluated 8 state-of-the-art models, each tested with and without Chain-of-Thought prompting. Models achieve an average accuracy of 0.96 on standard problems but only 0.59 on counterintuitive ones. We further provide empirical evidence of token bias: performance drops by over 20% when canonical formulations are replaced by disguised variants. Embedding misleading suggestions in the prompt reduces performance by up to 34%, with no model proving immune. Taken together, the reported findings suggest that current LLMs are not yet genuine probabilistic reasoners, despite their success in advanced mathematical problems.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

PACE-RAG: Patient-Aware Contextual and Evidence-Constrained RAG for Clinical Drug Recommendation

Drug recommendation requires a deep understanding of individual patient context, especially for complex conditions like Parkinson's disease. While LLMs possess broad medical knowledge, they fail to capture the subtle nuances of actual prescribing patterns. Existing RAG methods also struggle with these complexities because guideline-based retrieval remains too generic and similar-patient retrieval often replicates majority patterns without accounting for the unique clinical nuances of individual patients. To bridge this gap, we propose PACE-RAG (Patient-Aware Contextual and Evidence-Constrained RAG). Rather than directly copying frequent medications from retrieved patients, PACE-RAG personalizes recommendations by first extracting patient-specific clinical features, retrieving cases around these features, and then refining the final prescription using the patient's current symptoms, active medication history, and focus-specific prescribing tendencies. By analyzing treatment patterns tailored to specific clinical features, PACE-RAG generates patient-specific medication recommendations along with an explainable clinical summary. Evaluated on a Parkinson's cohort and the MIMIC-IV benchmark using Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen3-8B, PACE-RAG achieved state-of-the-art performance, reaching F1 scores of 80.84% and 47.22%, respectively. These results suggest that PACE-RAG is a robust and clinically grounded framework for personalized decision support. Our code is available at: https://github.com/ChaeYoungHuh/PACE-RAG.