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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models for Pure-State Ensemble Generation

arXiv:2605.03573v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quantum machine learning increasingly relies on pure-state representations, motivating generative models that sample directly in quantum representation space rather than perturbing classical inputs and re-encoding. We introduce Stochastic Schrödinger Diffusion Models (SSDMs), a score-based generative framework that defines diffusion, scores, and reverse-time sampling intrinsically on the complex projective manifold $\mathbb{CP}^{d-1}$ under the Fubini–Study metric. SSDMs combine a Riemannian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck forward diffusion with a stochastic Schrödinger realization, and learn reverse-time dynamics driven by the Riemannian score. Our central technical contribution is a local-time learning objective that exploits the local Euclidean OU limit of intrinsic manifold diffusions in Fubini-Study normal coordinates to obtain an analytic teacher score, bypassing the intractable transition densities that limit existing Riemannian score-based models. Across synthetic, physics-inspired (TFIM, XXZ), and quantum feature-state benchmarks up to $14$ qubits, SSDMs match target pure-state ensembles by orders of magnitude on MMD and observable statistics over both ambient Euclidean and matched Riemannian score-based baselines, and improve representation-level diagnostics for downstream quantum kernel methods.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

ROSA-RL: Uncertainty-Aware Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory with Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.16558v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Roundabouts challenge automated driving in mixed traffic, as heterogeneous and non-deterministic human behavior, unknown driving intentions, and high interaction complexity create uncertainty about whether the conflict zone will be blocked or available at the moment of entry. We present ROSA-RL – uncertainty-aware Roundabout Optimized Speed Advisory with Reinforcement Learning. It enables safe and efficient roundabout entry for automated and human-driven vehicles in mixed traffic through probabilistic conflict forecasting. A Transformer-based model predicts conflict zone occupancy over a five-second horizon, capturing multi-agent interactions to anticipate upcoming conflicts and available gaps. The prediction outputs encode uncertainty in future motion and intent, and augment the state of a classical RL framework, enabling uncertainty-aware speed coordination. Evaluated in simulations grounded in real-world data, ROSA-RL can effectively handle uncertainty and outperform a comparable model-based baseline, closing the gap to an ideal setting assuming fully known occupancy while improving traffic efficiency and safety. The source code of this work is available under: github.com/urbanAIthi/ROSA-RL.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Rescaling Confidence: What Scale Design Reveals About LLM Metacognition

arXiv:2603.09309v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0–100) is rarely examined. We show that this design choice is not neutral. Across six LLMs and three datasets, verbalized confidence is heavily discretized, with more than 78\% of responses concentrating on just three round-number values. To investigate this phenomenon, we systematically manipulate confidence scales along three dimensions: granularity, boundary placement, and range regularity, and evaluate metacognitive sensitivity using $meta-d'$. We find that a 0–20 scale consistently improves metacognitive efficiency over the standard 0–100 format, while boundary compression degrades performance and round-number preferences persist even under irregular ranges. These results demonstrate that confidence scale design directly affects the quality of verbalized uncertainty and should be treated as a first-class experimental variable in LLM evaluation.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LESS Is More: Mutual-Stability Sampling for Diffusion Language Models

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) offer a promising alternative to autoregressive decoding by iteratively refining masked sequences, enabling parallel token updates and bidirectional conditioning. Their practical efficiency, however, is limited by sampling procedures that execute a fixed number of reverse denoising steps selected before decoding, spending computation on already-stable positions and sometimes committing unstable ones too early. We present \textsc{LESS}, a training-free, model-agnostic adaptive sampler that treats token commitment as an online stopping problem. \textsc{LESS} implements mutual-stability sampling through a joint stability rule that makes a masked position eligible for unmasking only when its top-1 prediction has high confidence, its top-1 token persists across recent reverse steps, and its predictive distribution is stable under top-$K$ inter-step Jensen–Shannon divergence. We evaluate \textsc{LESS} on Dream-7B, LLaDA-8B, and LLaDA-1.5-8B, covering full-sequence diffusion and semi-autoregressive blockwise sampling regimes, across seven benchmarks spanning general knowledge, math, and code. \textsc{LESS} improves average accuracy over strong training-free adaptive samplers while using $72.1\%$ fewer reverse steps than fixed-budget decoding. Since each reverse step requires a Transformer forward pass, these step-count reductions translate into fewer forward evaluations, lower measured wall-clock latency, and lower estimated inference compute.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Diagonal-Budgeted Trotterization for Efficient Quantum Hamiltonian Simulation

arXiv:2606.16959v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient classical simulation of quantum Hamiltonian dynamics is often bottlenecked by exponential state growth and the overhead of generic sparse linear algebra. We introduce diagonal-budgeted Trotterization, a structure-aware strategy that decomposes Hamiltonians into factors preserving diagonal sparsity while tightly controlling fidelity loss. Our implementation, HamSim, utilizes a compact diagonal-sparse data layout and specialized C++/CUDA kernels to bypass the overheads of generic formats like CSR. By leveraging SIMD vectorization, multithreading, and GPU acceleration, HamSim achieves high performance across heterogeneous architectures. Benchmarks on the HamLib suite show that HamSim significantly outperforms Qiskit-Aer. On CPUs, HamSim attains speedups of $182$–$1,269\times$ on optimization instances (TSP, MaxCut) and $4.8$–$841\times$ on physical models (TFIM, Heisenberg). On GPUs, it achieves up to $178\times$ speedup for $12$–$16$ qubit problems. Unlike traditional Trotterization, HamSim maintains near-perfect fidelity without requiring exponential steps. This demonstrates that diagonal-aware numerical kernels provide a scalable foundation for high-fidelity classical Hamiltonian simulation.

06.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-10

APOSM: Pairwise preference learning improves generative small-molecule design

Small-molecule lead refinement is constrained by the cost of synthesizing and assaying candidates, making the surrogate models that prioritize compounds for experimental testing central to the design process. The reliability of such surrogates is limited by the noise and sparsity of screening measurements. We show that training the surrogate on pairwise comparisons between candidate molecules, rather than on absolute predicted scores, yields a substantially more reliable signal for active candidate selection in this regime. We develop APOSM, an active-learning algorithm that combines a fragment-based generator, a pairwise message-passing graph neural network surrogate, and probabilistic ranking inside a batched acquisition loop. On the Practical Molecular Optimization benchmark and a GPCR ligand rediscovery task, APOSM improves target attainment and sampling efficiency over unguided fragment-based optimization, the Graph-GA genetic algorithm, and a pointwise-regression ablation, with the largest gains on tasks where absolute scores are hardest to calibrate.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Improving Pre-trained Adult Glioma Segmentation Models Using only Post-processing Techniques

Gliomas are the most common malignant brain tumors in adults and are among the most lethal. Despite aggressive treatment, the median survival rate is less than 15 months. Accurate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) tumor segmentation is critical for surgical planning, radiotherapy, and disease monitoring. While deep learning models have improved the accuracy of automated segmentation, large-scale pre-trained models generalize poorly and often underperform, producing systematic errors such as false positives, label swaps, and slice discontinuities in slices. These limitations are further compounded by unequal access to GPU resources and the growing environmental cost of large-scale model training. In this work, we propose adaptive post-processing techniques to refine the quality of glioma segmentations produced by large-scale pretrained models developed for various types of tumors. We demonstrated the techniques in multiple BraTS 2025 segmentation challenge tasks, with the ranking metric improving by 14.9 % for the sub-Saharan Africa challenge and 0.9% for the adult glioma challenge. This approach promotes a shift in brain tumor segmentation research from increasingly complex model architectures to efficient, clinically aligned post-processing strategies that are precise, computationally fair, and sustainable.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2026

arXiv:2606.15708v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Welcome to the ninth edition of the AI Index report. As AI continues to advance rapidly, the question becomes whether the systems built around it can keep up. Governance frameworks, evaluation methods, education systems, and the data infrastructure needed to track AI's impact are struggling to match the pace of the technology itself. That gap between what AI can do and how prepared we are to manage it runs through every chapter of this year's report. New in this edition, the report tracks how AI is being tested more ambitiously across reasoning, safety, and real-world task execution, and why those measurements are increasingly difficult to rely on. It also features new estimates of generative AI's economic value alongside emerging evidence of its labor market effects, an analytical framework on AI sovereignty, and a science chapter developed in collaboration with Schmidt Sciences. For the first time, the report features standalone chapters on AI in science and AI in medicine, reflecting AI's growing impact across these two domains.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Learn to Quantify Social Interaction with Constraints for Pedestrian Walking

作者:

arXiv:2606.17897v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-term human path forecasting in crowds is critical for autonomous moving platforms (like autonomous driving cars and social robots) to avoid collision and make high-quality planning. Although the current research take into account social interactions for prediction, they don't reveal the exact kinds of social interactions happened among people and how the social interactions affect the decision-making process of pedestrians, which further limits its robustness. Social interactions in pedestrian walking are intuitively massive and hard to label and quantify. In this paper, we explore creatively to quantify and interpret how pedestrians interact with others by proposing Learn to Cluster. Our clustering social interactions is probabilistic latent variable generative, learning directly from sequential trajectory observations, scalable to arbitrary number of pedestrians. Learn to cluster is label-free and can be naturally integrated into the training process of the prediction model. The latent variables will then serve as 'labels' to categorize social interactions. Extensive experiments over several trajectory prediction benchmarks demonstrate that our method is able to learn the patterns of social interactions and effectively integrate the patterns to pedestrian trajectory prediction.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Reasoning as Intersection: Consensus-Frame Alignment for Visual Focus in Video-MLLMs

Reinforcement learning has improved the reasoning ability of large language models, but applying outcome-only rewards to video multimodal large language models (Video-MLLMs) provides limited guidance on which visual evidence should support the answer. Inspired by multisensory integration, where consistent cues can enhance the salience and reliability of perceptual estimates, we introduce Consensus Frame GRPO (CF-GRPO), a temporal-annotation-free process-level reward framework for evidence-aware video reasoning. CF-GRPO constructs a consensus frame prior from intrinsic video cues, including temporal coverage, scene-transition cues, and query-conditioned visual relevance. It then computes a model-side frame-use score from visual and response representations and optimizes their agreement through the Consensus Frame Reward (CFR). With salience-aware sparse aggregation and distribution sharpening, CFR provides a high-contrast reward signal without requiring human temporal annotations. Experiments show that VideoCFR achieves competitive performance across complex video reasoning benchmarks and improves several metrics over representative Video-MLLM and RL baselines, while the consensus prior provides an interpretable view of the evidence frames emphasized during training. The implementation is available at https://github.com/1Pansy/VideoCFR.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

DPRM: A Plug-in Doob h transform-induced Token-Ordering Module for Diffusion Language Models

arXiv:2604.24357v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion language models generate without a fixed left-to-right order, leaving token ordering as a central algorithmic choice. Existing systems mainly use random masking or confidence-driven ordering, which respectively suffer from train–test mismatch and myopic exploration. We introduce DPRM (Doob -transform Process Reward Model), a plug-in token-ordering module that keeps the host architecture, denoising objective and supervision unchanged, and modifies only the ordering policy. DPRM starts from confidence-driven ordering and gradually shifts to process-reward-guided ordering through online estimates. We characterize the exact DPRM policy as a reward-tilted Gibbs reveal law, prove convergence of its stagewise Soft-BoN approximation, show that the online bucketized controller tracks the exact DPRM score at empirical-Bernstein rates, and establish a sample-complexity advantage under tractable optimization assumptions. Across nine hosts covering language reasoning, test-time scaling, protein, single-cell, molecular, DNA, text-to-image generation, and VQA, DPRM order variants improve several language, DNA, and multimodal settings while also identifying boundary cases where confidence-only ordering or task-specific utilities are preferable. Code is available at: https://github.com/DakeBU/DPRM-DLLM

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Full-state information-disturbance tradeoff for direction estimation with antiparallel spin-coherent pairs

arXiv:2606.18040v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We determine the optimal information–disturbance tradeoff for estimating an unknown spatial direction encoded in two antiparallel spins. Rotational covariance reduces the optimization over all instruments to a finite-dimensional Choi problem: a positive seed operator obeys one trace constraint for each irreducible sector of the input representation, while both the directional score and the operation fidelity are linear functionals of this seed. For two antiparallel spin-$1/2$ particles, whose physical representation decomposes as $0\oplus1$, we derive the two-multiplier dual problem and characterize the optimal instrument from the kernel vectors of the dual slack operator. The optimal operation is a covariant filter with scalar–vector coherence and is generally not a convex interpolation between the identity channel and a measure-and-reprepare strategy. At maximum information we recover the Gisin–Popescu score, but the least disturbing output state is optimized independently, giving a smaller disturbance than both the parallel-spin benchmark and antiparallel measure-and-reprepare. We also formulate the parallel benchmark and, as a central extension of the method, treat antiparallel spin-coherent states of arbitrary spin $j$. In this case the signal coherently occupies all sectors $\ell=0,\ldots,2j$ of $j\otimes j$, the endpoint information is governed by nearest-neighbor sector coherences, and the endpoint disturbance is obtained from an explicit finite block-diagonal eigenvalue problem.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Optimal Impulse Control for Cyber Risk Management

arXiv:2410.17706v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We explore an optimal impulse control problem wherein an electronic device owner strategically calibrates protection levels against cyber attacks. Utilizing epidemiological compartment models, we qualitatively characterize the dynamics of cyber attacks within the network. We determine the optimal protective measures against effective hacking by formulating and solving a stochastic control problem with optimal switching. We demonstrate that the value function for the cluster owner constitutes a viscosity solution to a system of coupled variational inequalities associated with a fully coupled reflected backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE). Furthermore, we devise a comprehensive algorithm alongside a verification procedure to ascertain the optimal timing for network protection across various cyber attack scenarios. Our findings are illustrated through numerical approximations employing deep Galerkin methods for partial differential equations (PDEs). We visualize the optimal protection strategies in the context of two distinct attack scenarios: (1) a constant cyber attack, (2) an exogenous cyber attack strategy modeled with a Poisson process.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

OGPO: Sample Efficient Full-Finetuning of Generative Control Policies

arXiv:2605.03065v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Generative control policies (GCPs), such as diffusion- and flow-based control policies, have emerged as effective parameterizations for robot learning. This work introduces Off-policy Generative Policy Optimization (OGPO), a sample-efficient algorithm for finetuning GCPs that maintains off-policy critic networks to maximize data reuse and propagate policy gradients through the full generative process of the policy via a modified PPO objective, using critics as the terminal reward. OGPO achieves state-of-the-art performance on manipulation tasks spanning multi-task settings, high-precision insertion, and dexterous control. To our knowledge, it is also the only method that can fine-tune poorly-initialized behavior cloning policies to near full task-success with no expert data in the online replay buffer, and does so with few task-specific hyperparameter tuning. Through extensive empirical investigations, we demonstrate that OGPO drastically outperforms methods alternatives on policy steering and learning residual corrections, and identify the key mechanisms behind its performance. We further introduce practical stabilization tricks, including success-buffer regularization, two-sided conservative advantages, and Q-variance reduction, to mitigate critic over-exploitation across state- and pixel-based settings. Beyond proposing OGPO, we conduct a systematic empirical study of GCP finetuning, identifying the stabilizing mechanisms and failure modes that govern successful off-policy full-policy improvement.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

The Morse Transform for Discrete Shape Analysis

arXiv:2503.04507v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The geometry of an object plays a vital role in modulating its interactions with the physical world. It nevertheless remains difficult to describe geometric information numerically for the purposes of statistical inference or classification tasks. Here, we introduce a new topological transform which leverages directional piecewise-linear Morse theory to quantify the geometry of an embedded object by cataloguing critical points across multiple height-functions. The output of this Morse transform records both the heights and the local topological type (peak, trough or saddle) of the critical points that characterise the underlying shape, retaining finer information than the Euler characteristic transform whilst naturally prioritising a shape's outermost regions. Crucially, this output can be further compressed into a rich but compact feature vector. We benchmark the Morse feature vector as a descriptor for ligand-based virtual screening (LBVS), which intrinsically depends on the shape of molecules. Under a common gradient-boosted tree classification pipeline, Morse descriptors achieve the highest mean AUROC when compared to other topological transform descriptors and to standard shape-based LBVS descriptors.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Multi-View Decompilation for LLM-Based Malware Classification

arXiv:2606.20436v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Malware analysts often inspect compiled binaries through decompiled pseudo-C, when source code is unavailable. Recent work suggests that large language models (LLMs) can assist this process by classifying decompiled code as benign or malicious, but existing pipelines typically rely on a single decompiler view. We argue that this assumption is fragile: decompilers are lossy heuristic tools, and different decompilers can expose different artefacts of the same binary. We curate a benchmark of benign utilities and malicious programs spanning a range of threat behaviors. Each sample is compiled and decompiled with both Ghidra and RetDec, yielding matched pseudo-C views. Across a range of LLMs from major model families, we find that providing both decompiler views improves malicious-class F1, mainly by increasing recall on malicious samples. Agreement analyses further show that Ghidra and RetDec make partially different errors, supporting the view that decompiler outputs provide complementary evidence. Our results suggest that multi-decompiler prompting is a simple, training-free way to improve LLM-based malware triage in practical settings.

17.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Stability of Synthetic Ricci Curvature Lower Bounds for Inverse Limit Extended Metric Measure Spaces

arXiv:2606.14322v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that every Polish extended metric measure space arises as an inverse limit of metric measure spaces up to isomorphism. We then prove that synthetic Ricci curvature lower bounds and several functional inequalities, including the log-Sobolev, Talagrand, Poincaré, and dimension-free Harnack inequalities are stable under inverse limit. We discuss applications to infinite-dimensional spaces, including abstract Wiener spaces and their quotient spaces.

18.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-09

Adjuvanted inactivated rabies virus-vectored Lassa virus vaccine in healthy adults: a phase 1 trial

Lassa fever causes substantial morbidity and mortality in West Africa, and no licensed vaccine is available. We evaluated LASSARAB, an inactivated rabies virus-vectored Lassa virus (Josiah strain) glycoprotein complex vaccine. We conducted a randomized, controlled, dose-escalation phase 1 trial. Participants (total n = 54) received two intramuscular doses of LASSARAB containing 700 (n = 15), 1,400 (n = 15) or 2,800 (n = 14) relative units of antigen formulated with the TLR-4 agonist 3D-6-acyl PHAD-SE adjuvant, or licensed rabies vaccine control (n = 10), administered 28 days apart. This protocol-defined interim analysis reports the primary safety evaluation and secondary immunogenicity assessments through day 61. There were no prespecified hypotheses or formal power calculations. All primary safety end points demonstrated an acceptable safety profile. After dose 1, local solicited adverse events occurred in 86.7–100.0% of LASSARAB groups and 80% of controls; systemic events in 33.3–71.4% and 60.0% of controls. After dose 2, local solicited adverse events occurred in 66.7–86.7% of LASSARAB groups and 55.6% of controls; systemic events in 53.3–71.4% of LASSARAB groups and 55.6% of controls. Events were predominantly mild and self-limited. Unsolicited adverse events occurred in 28.6–60.0% of LASSARAB groups and 20.0% of controls. No serious adverse event, immune-mediated condition or sensorineural hearing loss occurred. Safety laboratory abnormalities occurred in 13.3–66.7% of LASSARAB groups and 30.0% of controls (14 mild, 6 moderate and none severe). After two doses, Lassa virus GPC IgG ELISA seroconversion (≥fourfold rise) was achieved in 100.0% (44 of 44) of LASSARAB recipients and 0.0% (0 of 10) of controls. Rabies glycoprotein IgG ELISA seroconversion (≥fourfold rise) and neutralizing antibody by rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT) seroprotection (≥0.5 IU ml−1) were also 100% across all groups, including controls. LASSARAB + 3D-6-acyl phosphorylated hexaacyl disaccharide (PHAD)-SE demonstrated a favorable safety profile and immunogenicity against Lassa and rabies viruses. The per-protocol final study report will include safety and durability through day 394. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT06546709 . An interim report of a first-in-human phase 1 trial found an adjuvanted, combination inactivated rabies-vectored, Lassa fever vaccine (LASSARAB + 3D-6-acyl PHAD-SE) to be safe and induced immunogenicity to both Lassa and rabies viruses in healthy participants.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

I Understand How You Feel: Enhancing Deeper Emotional Support Through Multilingual Emotional Validation in Dialogue System

Emotional validation - explicitly acknowledging that a user's feelings make sense - has proven therapeutic value but has received little computational attention. Emotional validation in dialogue systems can be decomposed into (i) validating response identification, (ii) validation timing detection, and (iii) validating response generation. To support research on all three subtasks, we release M-EDESConv, a 120k English-Japanese multilingual corpus created through hybrid manual and automatic annotation, and M-TESC, a multilingual spoken-dialogue test set. For timing detection, we propose MEGUMI, a Multilingual Emotion-aware Gated Unit for Mutual Integration, that fuses frozen XLM-RoBERTa semantics with language-specific emotion encoders via cross-modal attention and gated fusion. MEGUMI shows superior performance on both the M-EDESConv and M-TESC datasets, both objectively and subjectively. Finally, our EmoValidBench benchmarks of GPT-4.1 Nano and Llama-3.1 8B indicate that current LLMs generate contextually similar and diverse validating responses, but emotional understanding remains a major area for improvement. Project page: https://github.com/zihaurpang/Multilingual-Emotional-Validation

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Precomputing Multi-Agent Path Replanning Using Temporal Flexibility

arXiv:2601.04884v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Executing a multi-agent plan can be challenging when an agent is delayed, because this typically creates conflicts with other agents. So, we need to quickly find a new safe plan. Replanning only the delayed agent often does not yield an efficient plan, and sometimes cannot even yield a feasible one. On the other hand, replanning other agents may lead to a cascade of changes and delays, and it is computationally expensive. We show how to efficiently replan a single delayed agent by tracking and using the temporal flexibility of other agents while avoiding cascading delays. This flexibility is the maximum delay that the agent can take without changing the order with agents other than the initially delayed agent, or further delaying other agents. Our algorithm, FlexSIPP, precomputes all possible plans for the delayed agent and returns the changes to the other agents within the given scenario. We demonstrate our method in a real-world case study of replanning trains in the densely-used Dutch railway network and in the MovingAI MAPF benchmark set. Our experiments show that FlexSIPP provides effective solutions relevant to real-world adjustments, and within a reasonable timeframe.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect of Aspirin and Clinically Significant Bleeding in Older Adults

Aim: The global population of older adults is growing, and older age is linked to higher bleeding risk. Although guidelines discourage aspirin for primary prevention in healthy older adults due to bleeding harms outweighing benefits, many continue taking it without a clear indication. It remains unclear whether all older adults face uniform aspirin-related bleeding risk or if certain subgroups are more vulnerable. Methods: We analyzed data from 19,114 ASPREE trial participants to develop machine learning models using 116 baseline variables. Random forest (RF) and random survival forest (RSF) models predicted 5-year bleeding risk, and participants were stratified into low, intermediate, and high-risk groups based on the 20th and 80th percentiles of predicted risk. We assessed heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) by testing treatment-by-risk group interactions on the relative scale using Fine-Gray models, and on the absolute scale using observed 5-year cumulative incidence rates. Results: Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 626 major bleeding events occurred. The RF model had moderate discrimination (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.63-0.67) and good calibration (Brier = 0.032, 95% CI: 0.029-0.034). Statistically significant HTE was observed on the relative scale, with the greatest relative increase in bleeding risk seen in the low-risk group (subdistribution hazard ratio = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.27-4.01). On the absolute scale, low-risk participants experienced higher bleeding with aspirin (absolute risk difference (ARD) = 1.17%, 95% CI: 0.37-1.95), but heterogeneity in ARDs was not statistically significant (Cochran's Q p > 0.45). Similar findings were observed when using the RSF model. Conclusion: Participants at lowest baseline bleeding risk experienced the greatest relative increase in bleeding risk with aspirin therapy. We found statistically significant heterogeneity in treatment effects on the relative but not absolute scale. These findings support an individualized, risk-based approach to aspirin therapy decision-making in older adults.

22.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-20

Brain morphology in Anorexia Nervosa and its subtypes: A multi-cohort study of individual participant data

by Fabio Bernardoni, Dominic Arold, Luis Schoppik, Klaas Bahnsen, Ruiyang Ge, Clara Moreau, Lasse Bang, Federico D’Agata, Giovanni Abbate-Daga, Christian K. Tamnes, Iain Campbell, Owen O’Daly, Ulrike Schmidt, Guido Frank, Stefanie Horndasch, Andreas Hess, Arnd Dörfler, Hans-Christoph Friederich, Joe Simon, Angela Favaro, Luca Lavagnino, Christina E. Wierenga, Amanda Bischoff-Grethe, Amy E. Miles, Allan Kaplan, Aristotle Voineskos, Paul A. M. Smeets, Annemarie A. van Elburg, Unna Danner, Sophia I. Thomopoulos, Laura Berner, Neda Jahanshad, Sophia Frangou, Joseph A. King, Paul Thompson, Stefan Ehrlich Background In a recent coordinated meta-analysis of neuroimaging data, we reported gray matter (GM) alterations in acutely underweight patients with anorexia nervosa (AN). Here, we extend these findings by examining individual variation in brain structure within AN, individual-level differentiation between AN and healthy controls (HC), and differences between AN subtypes, with potential relevance for understanding clinical heterogeneity. Methods and findings We analyzed individual-level data from 11 international sites in the ENIGMA Eating Disorders Working Group, including 570 female participants with AN and 739 HC. We examined cortical thickness, cortical surface area and subcortical volumes in AN versus HC using three complementary approaches: (i) group-level differences in a mega-analysis correcting for age effects, (ii) frequencies of extreme deviations (infra-/supranormal; z  1.96) based on normative reference models by the CentileBrain Initiative, and (iii) individual-level classification performance using machine learning. The same analytic framework was applied to compare AN restricting versus binge-eating/purging subtype, additionally correcting for BMI effects.Mega-analyses reinforced previous meta-analytic findings of pronounced and widespread GM deficits in AN compared to HC. Normative modelling revealed that the frequency of infranormal z-scores (23/68 cortical thickness, 13/14 subcortical volume metrics) and supranormal z-scores (35/68 cortical thickness, 17/68 cortical surface area metrics) was significantly higher in AN than expected based on reference data. Individuals with AN could be reliably differentiated from HC using machine-learning classifiers (ROC–AUC = 0.75–0.81). In contrast, neither group-level differences nor frequency of extreme z-scores differed between AN subtypes, and individuals with different subtypes could not be reliably differentiated from each other. Importantly, the observational design cannot distinguish neurobiological differences related to AN from the effects of starvation or low BMI in the AN versus HC analyses. The lack of differences between subtypes does not exclude brain structural differences between AN subtypes that might be detectable with other modalities or analytic approaches. Conclusion Using a mega-analytic approach, we confirm widespread GM deficits in AN, show that these alterations are (in some patients) extreme, and demonstrate that they enable robust classification with superior performance compared to most MRI-based psychiatric classification studies. The absence of differences between AN subtypes may reflect shared neurobiology, though other imaging modalities may reveal distinctions beyond brain structure.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Reinforcement Twinning for Hybrid Control of Flapping-Wing Drones

arXiv:2505.18201v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Controlling flapping-wing drones requires controllers that handle time-varying, nonlinear, underactuated dynamics from incomplete, noisy sensor data. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly reinforcement learning (RL), have opened new perspectives for addressing such complex control problems through data-driven policy optimization from interaction with the environment. Yet purely data-driven methods are sample-inefficient, demanding extensive, sometimes unsafe exploration, especially without guiding physical models. This motivates hybrid AI-physics frameworks. This article proposes a hybrid model-free/model-based flight-control approach using the reinforcement twinning algorithm. The model-based (MB) component uses an adjoint formulation and an adaptive digital twin continuously identified from live trajectories; the model-free (MF) component uses RL. The two agents share knowledge via transfer learning, imitation learning, and shared experience between the real environment and the digital twin, coordinated by a policy referee that selects which agent acts in reality based on digital-twin performance and a real-to-virtual consistency ratio. The framework is evaluated for the longitudinal control of a flapping-wing drone, modelled as a nonlinear time-varying system driven by quasi-steady aerodynamic forces. The hybrid strategy is tested under three adaptive-model initializations: (1) offline identification from existing data, (2) random initialization with fully online identification, and (3) offline pre-training with biased parameters followed by online adaptation. In all cases, the hybrid framework improves performance, robustness, and sample efficiency over purely model-free and purely model-based approaches.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Routine use of oral iron for people with heart failure and iron deficiency in primary care; retrospective cohort study

Aims: Iron deficiency is common among people with heart failure and associated with morbidity and mortality. While intravenous iron improves clinical outcomes, oral iron continues to be prescribed in routine practice despite limited evidence of benefit. Methods: We completed a retrospective primary care cohort study (2016 to 2021) to investigate the proportion of people with an incident diagnosis of heart failure who had iron deficiency identified (defined as ferritin

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

TimeLAVA: Learning-Agnostic Data Valuation for Time Series

arXiv:2606.18729v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data valuation quantifies the intrinsic quality of individual samples to enable principled data curation, quality control, and robust learning. For time series in critical domains such as healthcare, finance, and industrial monitoring, effective valuation methods are essential yet fundamentally lacking. Existing approaches are either model-dependent, limiting their generalizability, or designed for i.i.d. data and thus fail to capture temporal dependencies, multi-scale patterns, and non-stationary dynamics inherent to sequential data. We introduce TimeLAVA, a learning-agnostic framework that values temporal segments by their marginal contribution to minimizing distributional discrepancy between evaluated and reference data. At its core is a novel Selective Wavelet-based Wasserstein discrepancy combining multi-scale wavelet transforms for temporal localization with unbalanced optimal transport for robustness to distributional shifts. Segment values are efficiently computed via sensitivity analysis without requiring model training and aggregated into point-wise scores. We provide theoretical guarantees linking valuation to model-agnostic generalization and prove bounded sensitivity to outlier contamination. Extensive experiments across anomaly detection, data pruning, and label noise detection demonstrate that TimeLAVA produces significantly more informative value scores than existing methods on diverse real-world datasets.