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01.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17 DOI: arXiv:2509.15049

How long does it take to train an Elephant Random Walk

作者:

arXiv:2509.15049v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study how conditioning on the first $k$ steps, which we think of as training, affects the long-term behavior of the Elephant Random Walk. When the elephant is conditioned to be at position $k$ at time $k$, the first return time to the origin scales as $k^{(4-4p)/(3-4p)}$ in the diffusive regime, and grows exponentially in the critical regime. We loosely interpret this as a measurement of the rate at which the elephant forgets its training.

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02.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.20300

CMDS-AD: Cross-Modal Dual-Stream Decoupling for Few-Shot Anomaly Detection

作者:

Junhao Cai ↗Deyu Zeng ↗Junhao Pang ↗Junyu Chen ↗Qiwei Liang ↗Xiaopin Zhong ↗Zongze Wu ↗

Few-shot anomaly detection remains challenging due to limited training data. Multi-modal anomaly detection (MAD) offers a viable solution, leveraging 3D geometric cues to enrich 2D RGB representations and compensate for this scarcity. However, existing MAD methods apply spatially uniform feature processing, conflating stable macroscopic structures with high-frequency localized defect signals, exacerbating cross-modal misalignment and inflating false-positive rates. To overcome this, we present CMDS-AD, a Cross-Modal Dual-Stream Anomaly Detection framework. A LoRA-guided diffusion model generates diverse RGB samples to mitigate extreme data scarcity. For 3D normal augmentation, we employ a pre-trained diffusion model as a normal estimator. Crucially, this estimator inherently acts as a non-linear low-pass filter, directly extracting low-frequency normal representations from RGB inputs. This establishes an auxiliary estimated stream of purely low-frequency information, anchoring robust structural templates and assisting the uncompressed real stream, containing coupled high- and low-frequency components, to precisely isolate micro-defects. A Coordinate-Aware Hierarchical Feature Mapper adaptively aligns cross-modal semantics, while a multiplicative scoring mechanism filters modality-specific noise. Under the extreme 1-shot setting, CMDS-AD achieves absolute performance gains of 5.7% (I-AUROC) and 2.0% (AUPRO) on MVTec 3D-AD, alongside 7.7% and 5.6% improvements on EyeCandies, establishing a new state-of-the-art.

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03.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.14706

Risk or Replace: Efficient Asymptotics for Data-Driven Maintenance

作者:

Poulad Moradi ↗Joachim Arts ↗Melvin Drent ↗Collin Drent ↗

arXiv:2606.14706v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is an approach that plans interventions for deteriorating systems according to their observed operational state. CBM reduces unplanned downtime and extends usable lifetime. We study a heterogeneous population of components that degrade over time according to a stochastic processes with non-negative and i.i.d. increments that are characterized by component-specific parameters that remain unobservable to the decision maker. We rely on degradation data to estimate these parameters and determine replacement actions at equidistant epochs. The goal is to minimize the long-run average cost, which incorporates fixed replacement costs, failure costs, and operating costs. This problem can be formulated as a high-dimensional partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), which is generally intractable. We develop a tractable, data-driven CBM policy that estimates the optimal policy of a hypothetical Oracle that has full information of the underlying degradation parameters and call this policy the Estimated Oracle's Optimal Policy (EOP). We introduce a scaling regime where both the failure thresholds and cost parameters increase proportionally, reflecting practical settings in which component lifetimes and maintenance costs are large relative to the time between two consecutive CBM decision moments. We show that the regret of the EOP, defined as the difference between its long-run average cost and that of the Oracle, converges to zero in the scaling regime when the parameter estimator is consistent. Across extensive experiments using both real and simulated data, the EOP achieves very low regret and, whenever the optimal POMDP policy can be computed exactly, a negligible optimality gap.

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04.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2501.07351

Honest-binding quantum bit commitment from separable operations

作者:

Ziad Chaoui ↗Anna Pappa ↗Matteo Rosati ↗

arXiv:2501.07351v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bit commitment is a fundamental cryptographic primitive and a cornerstone for numerous two-party cryptographic protocols, including zero-knowledge proofs. However, it has been proven that unconditionally secure bit commitment, both classical and quantum, is impossible. In this work, we demonstrate that imposing a restriction on the committing party to perform only separable operations enables secure quantum bit commitment schemes. Specifically, we prove that in any perfectly hiding bit commitment protocol, an honestly-committing party limited to separable operations will be detected with high probability if they attempt to alter their commitment. To illustrate our findings, we present an example protocol.

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05.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2606.14437

Spin counting via projection noise measurement of mesoscopic solid-state spin ensemble

作者:

Lorenzo Bechelli ↗Konstantin Herb ↗Laura Alicia V\"olker ↗Christian L. Degen ↗

arXiv:2606.14437v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum projection noise is the fundamental noise source for the population measurement of spin ensembles. While projection-noise-limited measurements have been extensively studied in atomic systems, corresponding experiments on solid-state spin ensembles remain challenging due to dominant classical readout noise. Here, we report direct measurement of the quantum projection noise of mesoscopic ensembles of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) spin defects at room temperature. Our experiment is enabled by a high optically-detected magnetic resonance (ODMR) contrast of over 20% for a single crystallographic orientation of the defect spins, obtained by combining polarization-selective optical excitation with spin-to-charge conversion. We use our protocol to demonstrate projection noise measurements and spin counting from nanoscale NV ensembles of up to 43 spins. We further demonstrate that the protocol allows for significant gains in sensitivity for magnetometry applications without need for cryogenic operation or high bias magnetic fields.

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06.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17 DOI: arXiv:2606.17958

Beyond Visual Cues: CoT-Enhanced Reasoning for Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation

作者:

Yuming Chen ↗Yuxin Xie ↗Tao Zhou ↗Yi Zhou ↗

Semi-supervised medical image segmentation has emerged as a dominant research problem in medical image analysis, mitigating annotation scarcity by leveraging consistency regularization on unlabeled data. However, existing approaches operate predominantly via visual pattern matching, relying heavily on pixel-level similarities. This visual-centric dependency often falters in clinical scenarios characterized by the visual-semantic mismatch, where visually similar lesions warrant distinct diagnostic conclusions, thus failing to capture the underlying diagnostic logic used by experts. To address this, we move beyond visual cues and propose CERS (CoT-Enhanced Reasoning Segmentation), a framework that integrates Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to distinguish pathologically distinct cases. Specifically, we construct a knowledge pool enriched with linguistic reasoning descriptions generated by large language models (LLMs). A semantic-aware reference selection strategy is introduced to identify historical evidence, filtering candidates first by morphology, and then refining them via CoT consistency to eliminate hard negatives. Furthermore, a multi-scale coordinate attention module (MCAM) is designed to effectively fuse this reasoning-derived context into the decoding process. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of CERS against state-of-the-art approaches, particularly in resolving boundary ambiguities and semantic inconsistencies. The code is available at https://github.com/cymasuna/CERS.

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07.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2606.14466

The Perceived Fragility of Explanations in Audio Models: Manipulation of Attribution with Unchanged Predictions

作者:

Piotr Kit{\l}owski ↗Dominik Wi\k{a}cek ↗Mateusz Modrzejewski ↗

arXiv:2606.14466v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates the fragility of post-hoc explanation methods in audio deepfake detection. While previous work on explanation manipulation focused on images using standard $L_p$ metrics, we introduce a psychoacoustic framework that optimizes inaudible perturbations to decouple model attributions from final classifications. We evaluate this vulnerability across state-of-the-art architectures under strict prediction-preserving constraints. By evaluating the manipulation cost through domain-specific perceptual audio quality metrics alongside explanation alignment criteria, our framework demonstrates that an adversary can systematically distort automated explanation heatmaps while preserving the predicted deepfake label. Full code available at: https://github.com/cncPomper/Audio-XAI

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08.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18539

TS-Fault: Benchmarking Time Series Forecasters Against Structural Faults

作者:

Yuyang Zhao ↗Lian Xu ↗Hao Miao ↗Chenxi Liu ↗Hao Xue ↗

arXiv:2606.18539v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting (TSF) underpins consequential decisions in energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, yet TSF models are almost universally ranked by a single number (e.g., average error) on clean held-out data, under the implicit assumption that it predicts deployed reliability. However, real faults are not i.i.d noise but structured events with temporal shape, broken cross-variable dependencies, regime change coupled with missingness, and causal propagation across a sensing pipeline. Treating TSF robustness as a data-quality problem, we present TS-Fault, a benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under explicit, parameterized fault scenarios with controllable semantic difficulty. TS-Fault organizes recurring failures into four modes along two orthogonal axes (observation- vs mechanism-level; univariate vs multivariate) and injects each fault into the most prediction-critical window via a unified importance score. This design enables robustness to be tested against the structures models actually rely on, rather than reduced to generic noise sensitivity. We evaluate 21 models across 6 datasets, 4 modes, and 5 difficulty levels under a paired clean/corrupt protocol. The results reveal three findings that contradict common leaderboard intuition: (i) clean-data accuracy anti-correlates with robustness; (ii) clean rankings are preserved under observation-level faults but reshuffled under mechanism-level faults; and (iii) all catastrophic failures occur under mechanism-level faults, with foundation models achieving the highest clean-data accuracy yet exhibiting the greatest fragility. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Ray-zyy/TS-Fault.

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09.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.19297

Does VLA Even Know the Basics? Measuring Commonsense and World Knowledge Retention in Vision-Language-Action Models

作者:

arXiv:2606.19297v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Embodied Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models are typically obtained by fine-tuning powerful pretrained VLMs on robotics data, yet it is unclear how much commonsense and factual knowledge they retain after adaptation. Failures on knowledge-sensitive tasks are ambiguous, conflating missing knowledge with poor generalization of low-level control. We introduce Act2Answer, a lightweight protocol that adapts VLM knowledge benchmarks to VLA evaluation by requiring agents to answer through action. Each question becomes a short tabletop episode where the agent performs a single object-placement action to select among candidate answers, yielding an action-grounded success rate with reduced control confounds. We curate a test suite of such environments across diverse commonsense and world-knowledge categories and introduce layerwise intent probing to localize answer-relevant information across the VLM backbone and action head. In a large-scale study of 7 VLA models and 9 VLM baselines, we systematically rank models across categories, finding that VLAs show solid performance on simple concepts while exhibiting larger gaps on richer semantic categories relative to their source VLMs, that VQA co-training is associated with better knowledge retention, and that answer-relevant signals peak in middle VLA layers but attenuate in upper layers. Act2Answer is available at https://tttonyalpha.github.io/act2answer/.

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10.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2501.19401

DAL: A Practical Prior-Free Black-Box Framework for Piecewise Stationary Bandits

作者:

Argyrios Gerogiannis ↗Yu-Han Huang ↗Subhonmesh Bose ↗Venugopal V. Veeravalli ↗

arXiv:2501.19401v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a practical, black-box framework termed Detection Augmented Learning (DAL) for the problem of piecewise stationary bandits without knowledge of the underlying non-stationarity. DAL accepts any stationary bandit algorithm with order-optimal regret as input and augments it with a change detector, enabling applicability to all common bandit variants. Extensive experimentation demonstrates that DAL consistently surpasses all state-of-the-art methods across diverse non-stationary scenarios, including synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, underscoring its versatility and scalability. We provide theoretical insights into DAL's strong empirical performance, complemented by thorough empirical validation.

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11.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.16933

A Unified Causal-Origin Taxonomy of Distributional Shifts in Reinforcement Learning

作者:

Ardianto Wibowo ↗Paulo E Santos ↗Amer Baghdadi ↗Matthew Stephenson ↗Karl Sammut ↗Jean-Philippe Diguet ↗

arXiv:2606.16933v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) systems often degrade when operating conditions differ from those previously encountered, reflecting distributional shifts in the underlying data-generating process. Such shifts may occur between training and evaluation, as in In-Distribution (ID) and Out-of-Distribution (OOD) generalization, or within non-stationary settings where environment dynamics evolve over time. However, the formal relationship between these views remains unclear, and existing work mainly focuses on mitigation rather than the causal origin of shift within the agent-environment interaction. This work develops a unified causal-origin taxonomy that characterizes sources of distributional shift in RL and relates ID/OOD generalization to non-stationary settings. We transfer the classical dataset-shift principle from supervised learning to RL by reformulating distributional shift in terms of the generative interaction process. Using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), we decompose the interaction into structural components, including the state distribution, observation process, policy, reward, and transition dynamics, together with the shifted-time boundary. The proposed taxonomy distinguishes internal, agent-driven, and external, environment-driven, distributional shifts. The shifted-time boundary perspective further characterizes explicit, implicit, and hybrid shifts. This formulation unifies ID/OOD generalization and non-stationarity as structured changes in the underlying process. We also introduce an evaluation framework for measuring shift impact and adaptation through performance degradation and recovery metrics. By grounding distributional shift in the causal-origin structure of RL, this work supports systematic analysis of robustness under distributional shift.

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12.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24511

How rare are Markovian quantum dynamics?

作者:

Charlotte B\"acker ↗Nick Maryshchak ↗Walter T. Strunz ↗

arXiv:2606.24511v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A profound understanding of decoherence and dissipation in quantum dynamics is crucial for the realistic modeling of the evolution of quantum systems. In open quantum dynamics one distinguishes between a memoryless, so-called Markovian evolution and dynamics incorporating memory effects, termed non-Markovian. In this work we study how prevalent memory effects are in the set of all such dynamics. We thus investigate how often a Markovian description is applicable. This question is approached by investigating randomly generated two-step qubit dynamics with respect to different concepts and witnesses of non-Markovianity. We observe that almost all dynamics are non-Markovian, and only a small (yet finite) fraction is Markovian. Furthermore, we study how this proportion changes when considering certain subclasses such as lower rank or mixed-unitary dynamics. Importantly, our results shed light on the relative ratios of – and interrelations between – the sets of dynamics that are non-Markovian with respect to different criteria. Finally, we investigate the fraction of dynamics in which the memory effects are necessarily of quantum nature and establish a connection between two recently developed concepts that characterize the quantumness of memory in non-Markovian dynamics.

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13.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2506.01678

Overcoming Labelled Data Scarcity for Defect Classification in Scanning Tunneling Microscopy

作者:

Nikola L. Kolev ↗Max Trouton ↗Filippo Federici Canova ↗Geoff Thornton ↗David Z. Gao ↗Neil J. Curson ↗Taylor J. Z. Stock ↗

arXiv:2506.01678v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) is a powerful technique for imaging surfaces with atomic resolution, providing insight into physical and chemical processes at the level of single atoms and molecules. A regular task of STM image analysis is the identification and labelling of features of interest against a uniform background. Performing this manually is a labour-intensive task, requiring significant human effort. To reduce this burden, we propose an automated approach to the segmentation of STM images that uses both few-shot learning and unsupervised learning. Our technique offers greater flexibility compared to previous supervised methods; it removes the requirement for large manually annotated datasets and is thus easier to adapt to an unseen surface while still maintaining a high accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by using it to recognise atomic features on three distinct surfaces: Si(001), Ge(001), and TiO$_2$(110), including adsorbed AsH$_3$ molecules on the silicon and germanium surfaces. Our model exhibits strong generalisation capabilities, and following initial training, can be adapted to unseen surfaces with as few as one additional labelled data point. This work is a significant step towards efficient and material-agnostic, automatic segmentation of STM images.

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14.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2605.23197

Stronger Entanglement Dies Faster: Quantum Mpemba Effect in Dissipative Qubits

作者:

Zhilong Liu ↗Zehua Tian ↗Jieci Wang ↗

arXiv:2605.23197v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In classical thermodynamics, the Mpemba effect refers to the counterintuitive observation that hot water can freeze faster than cold water, manifesting as an anomalous crossing of dynamical trajectories. While analogues of this phenomenon have been explored in open quantum systems and spin-chain entanglement asymmetry, its connection to the finite-time decoupling of quantum correlations remains elusive. In this work, we report a distinct Mpemba effect for quantum entanglement in a dissipative quantum system associated with entanglement sudden death (ESD). By analyzing two qubits interacting with local amplitude damping reservoirs, we demonstrate that a more strongly entangled initial state can experience a faster collapse into a separable state than a more weakly entangled state. This anomalous decay stems from the competition between initial coherence and excited-state population, where the latter acts as a catalyst for ESD. We provide exact analytical derivations for the trajectory crossover and ESD time, and map the phase diagram to precisely identify the parameter regime where the effect occurs. Our results offer a new strategy for controlling the lifetime of quantum resources in dissipative environments.

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15.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.04678

Test-Time Compute Scaling for ASR with Depth-Conditioned Looped Transformers

作者:

Yacouba Kaloga ↗Shashi Kumar ↗Shakeel A. Sheikh ↗Driss Khalil ↗Petr Motlicek ↗Ina Kodrasi ↗

arXiv:2606.04678v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: End-to-end ASR systems typically use fixed-depth acoustic encoders at inference, making it difficult to trade additional test-time computation for improved recognition without training a larger model. A natural approach is to reuse a shared Transformer block recurrently, but we find that naive looping does not fully exploit additional recurrent compute. We introduce LARM, a depth-conditioned looped Transformer that turns recurrent encoder depth into a controllable test-time compute axis. LARM combines sparse CTC checkpoints, supervision-clock embeddings, FiLM depth conditioning, and delayed soft-posterior feedback. These components structure the loop into recognition checkpoints separated by latent refinement phases and allow shared weights to specialize across recurrent steps. On LibriSpeech, LARM improves WER as the number of inference loops increases and achieves performance competitive with deeper unshared-parameter baselines. Our results show that test-time compute scaling can extend beyond autoregressive language-model reasoning to continuous non-autoregressive speech recognition.

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16.

Nature (Science) 2026-06-16 DOI: HASH:9c1ab2512e975745b798652df526f6ed

Mathematicians are developing rules for AI use — other fields should follow

作者: 未知作者

The mathematics community is right to call for transparency, integrity and fairness to be protected when AI tools are used. Researchers in other disciplines could learn from this approach. The mathematics community is right to call for transparency, integrity and fairness to be protected when AI tools are used. Researchers in other disciplines could learn from this approach.

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17.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18 DOI: HASH:0102be157fe057bbcb06da21920c5c72

Diabetes is associated with increased nocturnal respiratory rate

作者:

Gupta ↗K. S ↗Pedros-Valls ↗Harrington ↗Torres Barba ↗King ↗K. R ↗

Background and Objective: Diabetes mellitus (DM) causes autonomic neuropathy, which may alter nocturnal respiratory rate (NRR). To test the association between DM and NRR, we analyzed elective polysomnograms of four large observational cohorts. Research Design and Methods: We performed cross-sectional analysis of over 25,000 individuals with polysomnograms (PSGs) from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS), Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS), and Wisconsin Sleep Cohort (WSC). Patient-level NRRs were derived from inductance plethysmography waveforms. DM status was determined by self-report, physician diagnosis, medication use, or laboratory values, depending on the cohort. We related DM and NRR (continuous and dichotomized) using logistic regression models and adjusted for potential confounders. Cohort-specific results were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Meta-analysis of unadjusted models showed a pooled odds ratio (OR) of 1.10 (95% CI:1.04-1.17) for each breath-per-minute (brpm) increase in NRR. This association remained significant after multivariable adjustment (OR:1.06, 95% CI:1.02-1.11). Dichotomized analyses similarly showed higher odds of DM across dichotomization thresholds ranging from 15 to 21 brpm. At a threshold of 18 brpm, the unadjusted pooled OR was 1.77 (95% CI:1.23-2.55, P=0.0022), and the adjusted OR was 1.49 (95% CI:1.10-2.02, P=0.0098). Conclusions: Clinically stable outpatients with elevated NRR have an increased prevalence of DM. Additional studies are needed to investigate whether the mechanism is autonomic neuropathy and whether monitoring NRR can detect early complications of DM.

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18.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24 DOI: arXiv:2606.24773

Posterior Refinement: Fast Language Generation via Any-Order Flow Maps

作者:

Manan Agarwal ↗Sheel Shah ↗Chanhyuk Lee ↗Jaehoon Yoo ↗Jerry Huang ↗Seunghoon Hong ↗Aditi Raghunathan ↗Jinwoo Kim ↗Nicholas M. Boffi ↗

Non-autoregressive generation offers a powerful paradigm for iterative refinement, allowing models to recursively critique, erase and regenerate arbitrary subsets of tokens. However, existing non-autoregressive models fail to realize this potential. Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) suffer from factorization error, causing sample quality to collapse when generating multiple tokens simultaneously. Flow Map Language Models (FMLMs) circumvent this bottleneck via joint sequence transport for excellent few-step generation, but sacrifice the inference-time flexibility of MDMs. We introduce FMLM+, a framework that bridges this gap by equipping FMLM with masking-style noise schedules. While generating the full sequence in a single step, FMLM+ simultaneously scores the global consistency of each token a posteriori. We leverage this to introduce Posterior Refinement, a novel inference-time refinement strategy that enables the model to adaptively self-correct its outputs, matching the performance of discrete baselines with 32x fewer NFEs. Across diverse benchmarks, we demonstrate that FMLM+ with Posterior Refinement improves the speed–quality tradeoff over both MDM and FMLM families, providing a scalable foundation for high-fidelity language modeling.

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19.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2606.14215

LapidaryEngine: Fully Conversational Crystal Generation

作者:

Yusei Ito ↗Yuta Suzuki ↗Tomoya Murata ↗Masaki Adachi ↗

arXiv:2606.14215v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) has inspired the vision of generating bespoke crystal materials directly from natural-language instructions, enabling users to design materials through intuitive, conversational interaction. Existing text-to-crystal generative models represent important early steps toward this goal, but they suffer from two critical limitations: (i) restricted input formats that require highly structured descriptions (e.g., chemical formulas), and (ii) one-directional generation, where models can map text to crystal but cannot perform the inverse. These limitations prevent fully conversational workflows and hinder alignment with users' inherently ambiguous and evolving desiderata. We address these challenges with LapidaryEngine, the first model to support fully conversational crystal generation. LapidaryEngine accepts free-form natural-language requests and performs iterative refinement and editing in a dialogue-like manner. The key innovation is a pivot representation, a third, intermediate form that enables bidirectional translation between text and crystal structures despite the absence of direct paired datasets. Leveraging this pivot allows robust interpretation of user feedback and precise structural control. We demonstrate LapidaryEngine across diverse tasks, including insulator discovery, stability optimization, compositional modification, and structural editing, showcasing its ability to align generated materials with user intent in an interactive manner.

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20.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2510.22266

A Multi-level Analysis of Factors Associated with Student Performance: A Machine Learning Approach to the SAEB Microdata

作者:

Rodrigo Tertulino ↗La\'ercio Alencar ↗

arXiv:2510.22266v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Identifying the factors that influence student performance in basic education is a central challenge for formulating effective public policies in Brazil. This study introduces a multi-level machine learning approach to classify the proficiency of 9th-grade and high school students using microdata from the System of Assessment of Basic Education (SAEB). Our model uniquely integrates four data sources: student socioeconomic characteristics, teacher professional profiles, school indicators, and principal management profiles. A comparative analysis of four ensemble algorithms confirmed the superiority of a Random Forest model, which achieved 90.2% accuracy and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 96.7%. To move beyond prediction, we applied Explainable AI (XAI) using SHAP, which revealed that the school's average socioeconomic level is the most dominant predictor, demonstrating that systemic factors have a greater impact than individual characteristics in isolation. The primary conclusion is that academic performance is a systemic phenomenon deeply tied to the school's ecosystem. This study provides a data-driven, interpretable tool to inform policies aimed at promoting educational equity by addressing disparities between schools.

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21.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2512.01095

CycliST: A Video Language Model Benchmark for Reasoning on Cyclical State Transitions

作者:

Simon Kohaut ↗Daniel Ochs ↗Shun Zhang ↗Benedict Flade ↗Julian Eggert ↗Kristian Kersting ↗Devendra Singh Dhami ↗

We present CycliST, a novel benchmark dataset designed to evaluate Video Language Models (VLM) on their ability for textual reasoning over cyclical state transitions. CycliST captures fundamental aspects of real-world processes by generating synthetic, richly structured video sequences featuring periodic patterns in object motion and visual attributes. CycliST employs a tiered evaluation system that progressively increases difficulty through variations in the number of cyclic objects, scene clutter, and lighting conditions, challenging state-of-the-art models on their spatio-temporal cognition. We conduct extensive experiments with current state-of-the-art VLMs, both open-source and proprietary, and reveal their limitations in generalizing to cyclical dynamics such as linear and orbital motion, as well as time-dependent changes in visual attributes like color and scale. Our results demonstrate that present-day VLMs struggle to reliably detect and exploit cyclic patterns, lack a notion of temporal understanding, and are unable to extract quantitative insights from scenes, such as the number of objects in motion, highlighting a significant technical gap that needs to be addressed. More specifically, we find no single model consistently leads in performance: neither size nor architecture correlates strongly with outcomes, and no model succeeds equally well across all tasks. By providing a targeted challenge and a comprehensive evaluation framework, CycliST paves the way for visual reasoning models that surpass the state-of-the-art in understanding periodic patterns.

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22.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17 DOI: arXiv:2606.18142

Your AI Travel Agent Would Book You a Bullfight: An Agentic Benchmark for Implicit Animal Welfare in Frontier AI Models

作者:

Jasmine Brazilek ↗Oliver Tulio ↗Joel Christoph ↗Miles Tidmarsh ↗Carol Kline ↗Arturs Kanepajs ↗

AI agents are moving from advisors to actors, booking travel, planning menus, and running procurement on behalf of users. Existing benchmarks for AI and animal welfare evaluate model text responses to question-answer prompts, leaving open whether the welfare reasoning surfaced in those responses transfers to agentic deployment where the model must take actions with tools. We introduce TAC (Travel Agent Compassion), the first agentic benchmark measuring whether AI agents avoid options involving animal exploitation when acting on behalf of users. TAC presents an AI agent with twelve hand-authored travel booking scenarios across six categories of animal exploitation, augmented to forty-eight samples to control for price, rating, and position confounds. We evaluate seven frontier models from four labs. Every model scores below the chance level of sixty-four percent, with the best performer (Claude Opus 4.7) at fifty-three percent. A single welfare-aware sentence in the system prompt yields gains of forty-seven to sixty-three percentage points in Claude and GPT-5.5, twenty-six points in GPT-5.2, and under twelve points in DeepSeek and Gemini. An auxiliary Inspect Scout audit of 288 base-condition transcripts from the top two performers, using Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite as judge, flags zero transcripts for evaluation awareness, suggesting the below-chance rates do not stem from the models recognising the evaluation. We discuss implications for category-level variation across cultural domains, the limits of text-response welfare benchmarks, and the EU General-Purpose AI Code of Practice systemic risk framework.

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23.

arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.11512

SAGE: Answer-Conditioned Uncertainty Targets for Verbal Uncertainty Alignment

作者:

Kaiwen Shi ↗Zheyuan Zhang ↗Yanfang Ye ↗

Large language models increasingly express uncertainty through natural-language statements, yet these expressions often fail to reflect the model's sampled behavior. We study verbal uncertainty alignment as a distributional calibration problem: the appropriate uncertainty target for a prompt should be estimated from repeated model outputs rather than from an isolated response. However, group rollouts alone are insufficient, since the resulting target must provide a useful training signal. Existing targets only partially satisfy this requirement. We propose SAGE, Semantic-Answer Guided Entropy, a group-level uncertainty target that constructs an answer-conditioned uncertainty geometry over sampled responses. SAGE preserves categorical, numeric, and symbolic answer distinctions while maintaining a smooth and scale-preserving calibration signal. We further apply this target through Group-Uncertainty Preference Optimization, or GUPO, an uncertainty-channel training framework that supervises verbal uncertainty expressions rather than the full response. Experiments across factual, mathematical, and multiple-choice reasoning tasks show improved uncertainty ranking, lower calibration error, and reduced overconfidence.

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24.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15 DOI: arXiv:2508.03736

Fusion of Pervasive RF Data with Spatial Images via Vision Transformers for Enhanced Mapping in Smart Cities

作者:

Rafayel Mkrtchyan ↗Armen Manukyan ↗Hrant Khachatrian ↗Theofanis P. Raptis ↗

In this paper, we present a deep learning-based approach that integrates the DINOv2 architecture to improve building mapping by combining (possibly erroneous) maps from open-source platforms with pervasive radio frequency (RF) data collected from multiple wireless user equipments and base stations. Unlike prior methods, our approach leverages a vision transformer-based architecture to jointly process both RF and map modalities within a unified framework, effectively capturing spatial dependencies and structural priors for enhanced mapping accuracy. For the evaluation purposes, we employ a synthetic dataset co-produced by Huawei. To address the challenges associated with real-world data imperfections, we introduce controlled noise to its RF data so as to simulate real-world conditions. Additionally, we develop and train a model that leverages only aggregated path loss information to tackle the mapping problem. We measure the results according to three performance metrics: the Jaccard index (intersection over union, IoU), the Hausdorff distance, and the Chamfer distance. Our design achieves a macro IoU of 65.3%, significantly surpassing (i) the erroneous maps baseline, which yields 40.1%, (ii) an RF-only method from the literature, which yields 37.3%, and (iii) a non-AI fusion baseline that we designed which yields 42.2%. The comparative evaluation highlights the limitations of relying solely on RF data or on spatial data, as well as the effectiveness that AI can have on fusing data towards enhancing smart city mapping accuracy. We further validate our method on real-world data from the Oslo region, complementing the synthetic evaluation with a real deployment setting, where our best fusion model reaches 64.9% macro IoU. We additionally outline a strategy for deploying the model over larger areas by tiling the region with overlapping windows.

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25.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.19476

Can In-Context Learning Support Intrinsic Curiosity?

作者:

Eric Elmoznino ↗Sangnie Bhardwaj ↗Johannes von Oswald ↗Rajai Nasser ↗Blaise Ag\"uera y Arcas ↗Jo\~ao Sacramento ↗Rif A. Saurous ↗Guillaume Lajoie ↗

arXiv:2606.19476v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Effective machine learning depends not only on how we model data, but also on what data we choose to collect. While large sequence models have revolutionized data modeling, the problem of automated data selection, or "intrinsic curiosity", remains a significant challenge. Classic approaches incentivize exploration by rewarding an agent based on its "learning progress", which measures how much a newly acquired observation improves a world model's predictive ability. However, evaluating these rewards traditionally requires expensive inner loops of gradient descent updates within each trajectory, rendering them computationally impractical at scale. In this work, we investigate whether the emergent in-context learning (ICL) capabilities of sequence models can eliminate this bottleneck by serving as immediate, update-free world models. Specifically, we evaluate whether an exploration policy can be trained to maximize learning progress, using solely the prediction errors and counterfactual context manipulations of an in-context learner. We first prove that in general Markov decision processes, this is in fact impossible in an unbiased way: the resulting intrinsic rewards either suffer from nuisance terms that bias their estimation of true learning progress, or they cannot be implemented using an in-context learner's prediction errors. Conversely, we prove a positive result for a broad subclass of non-temporal settings, encompassing active learning and Bayesian Experimental Design: here, ICL-derived rewards successfully bound and asymptotically converge to the true learning progress. We corroborate our theory with controlled experiments across continuous and symbolic environments, demonstrating that our ICL-driven framework successfully trains curious data-collection policies that explore optimally.

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