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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Where Does Texture Evidence Live in SAM? Features, Proposal Masks, and Texture Segmentation

Texture segmentation stresses foundation segmentation because meaningful regions are defined by material or repeated appearance rather than object identity. Segment Anything Models (SAMs) often fail by default on such texture-defined partitions, but this failure is ambiguous: the texture evidence may be absent, missing from the proposal bank, or present but selected or assembled incorrectly by an object-centric readout. We ask what texture-relevant evidence is already preserved in frozen SAM before adaptation. We study two frozen evidence spaces: multiscale features, probed with a minimal clustering readout, and the automatic proposal bank, treated as evidence for a supervised consolidation readout. SAM is frozen throughout; we do not fine-tune the backbone or retrain the proposal generator. Across RWTD, STLD, an ADE20K-selected refined-crop complement, and a ControlNet-stitched PTD bridge archive, frozen SAM is not a texture segmenter by default, but its failures are not simple texture blindness. Coarse frozen features preserve texture organization, and proposal banks often contain texture-aligned masks or fragments. Natural scenes more often require assembly and commitment over fragments, while cleaner synthetic cases more often reduce to selecting an already coherent proposal. Default mask failure should therefore be decomposed into representation evidence, proposal-bank support, readout mismatch, and commitment failure.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Phase Transition in Convex Relaxations for Graph Alignment

arXiv:2606.15581v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the graph alignment problem for correlated Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE) matrices, where the goal is to recover a hidden vertex permutation given two correlated symmetric Gaussian matrices $(A, B)$ with correlation $1/\sqrt{1+\sigma^2}$. While the maximum likelihood estimator is information-theoretically optimal, its computation, which reduces to a quadratic assignment problem, is intractable. Motivated by this, we analyze convex relaxations based on minimizing $\|AX - XB\|_F$ over the set of doubly stochastic matrices and the unit hypercube. We show that when the correlation parameter satisfies $\sigma = o(n^{-1/2}/\log^4 n)$, the solution of either relaxation $(X^\star)$ concentrates around the ground-truth permutation matrix $(\Pi^\star)$, i.e., $\|X^\star-\Pi^\star\|_F^2 = o(n)$, implying recovery of all but a vanishing fraction of vertices after simple post-processing. Combined with existing lower bounds, our results precisely characterize that $\|X^\star-\Pi^\star\|_F^2$ transitions from $o(n)$ for $\sigma = \tilde{o}(n^{-1/2})$ to $\Omega(n)$ for $\sigma = \tilde{\Omega}(n^{-1/2})$. In doing so, our analysis significantly tightens prior results and extends them beyond doubly stochastic relaxations.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Select to Think: Unlocking SLM Potential with Local Sufficiency

Small language models (SLMs) offer efficient deployment, yet they often lag behind their larger counterparts (LLMs) in reasoning. Existing remedies either invoke an LLM at points of reasoning divergence, incurring substantial latency and cost, or rely on standard distillation, which is limited by the SLM's capacity to accurately mimic the LLM's complex generative distribution. We address this dilemma by identifying local sufficiency: at divergence points, the LLM's preferred token often resides within the SLM's top-K next-token predictions, even when failing to emerge as the SLM top-1 choice. We therefore propose Select to Think (S2T), which reframes the LLM's role from open-ended generation to selection among the SLM's proposals, simplifying the supervision signal to discrete candidate rankings. Leveraging this, we introduce S2T-Local, which distills the selection logic into the SLM, empowering it to perform autonomous re-ranking without inference-time LLM dependency. Empirically, a 1.5B SLM's top-8 candidates contain the 32B LLM's choice with a 95% hit rate, and S2T-Local improves the 1.5B SLM's Math Avg. over greedy decoding by 24.1% relative gain, matching the efficacy of 8-path self-consistency with single-trajectory efficiency.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Hybrid Uncertainty Sensitivity Analysis Based on the HSIC for High-Dimensional Responses with Aleatory–Epistemic Separation

arXiv:2606.14053v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying the influence of hybrid aleatory and epistemic uncertainties on high-dimensional system responses remains a major challenge in global sensitivity analysis (GSA). Existing Hilbert–Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC)-based approaches are primarily restricted to single-output settings and lack a rigorous decomposition of heterogeneous uncertainty sources and their interactions. To address this limitation, a novel double-space tensor-product RKHS framework is proposed for sensitivity analysis under hybrid uncertainty. By constructing factorized kernels over both the latent input space and the multidimensional output space, a concurrent double Möbius inversion is derived to orthogonally decompose the global dependence measure into pure aleatory effects, pure epistemic effects, and their interaction contributions. The resulting dimension-wise sensitivity indices preserve the uncertainty attribution structure across all output dimensions. To satisfy the independence assumptions required by the decomposition, an auxiliary-variable representation based on the inverse probability integral transform is introduced, enabling the treatment of hierarchical uncertainties and Copula-induced correlations within a unified latent space. A fully vectorized single-loop implementation is further developed to avoid the computational burden of nested Monte Carlo simulation. Statistical significance and estimation uncertainty are quantified through permutation testing and Bootstrap confidence intervals. Numerical studies on a modified multi-output Ishigami function and an aerodynamic pressure-field problem demonstrate the accuracy, scalability, and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Relational Structural Causal Models

arXiv:2606.14892v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: An artificial intelligence must have a model of its environment that is causal, supporting reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, and also combinatorial, supporting generalization to unseen combinations of objects. In this work, we formally study when and how such a model can be learned. We develop relational structural causal models, extending structural causal models (Pearl 2009) to settings where objects and their relations vary. First, we show how answers to not only causal but also observational queries about unseen combinations of objects can not be identified without further assumptions. To enable such identification–including in the presence of unobserved confounding–we define relational causal graphs and derive symbolic identification criteria. Finally, we propose relational neural causal models, a provably correct approach that outperforms non-relational baselines on simulated traffic scenes with varying cars, signals, and pedestrians.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

EvoTrainer: Co-Evolving LLM Policies and Training Harnesses for Autonomous Agentic Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.03108v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autonomous LLM training is often framed as recipe search, which leaves the training harness largely static. This limitation sharpens in agentic RL, where shifting bottlenecks and scalar rewards mask diverse failure modes. We introduce EvoTrainer, an autonomous training framework that co-evolves LLM policies and training-side harnesses through empirical feedback: it diagnoses rollout-level evidence, revises diagnostics, backtests interventions, and accumulates reusable skills. Evaluated on mathematical reasoning, competitive-programming code generation, and repository-level software engineering, EvoTrainer matches or exceeds the human-engineered RL references under the same data, codebase, and evaluation protocol, with the largest gain on long-horizon agentic SWE. Trajectory analyses show that retained strategies diverge across domains, evolving diagnostics prevent invalid high-scoring branches from being promoted, and reusable skills shape later search. Autonomous LLM RL should move beyond recipe search toward joint evolution of policies and the training harnesses that interpret them.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Hybrid Classical-Quantum Variational Autoencoder for Neural Topic Modeling

作者:

Neural topic models enable scalable semantic discovery, but their integration with quantum hardware remains largely unexplored. We present a proof-of-concept hybrid classical-quantum variational autoencoder (VAE) for topic modeling, embedding parameterized quantum circuits within the VAE inference network while retaining a classical topic-word decoder. To address the resource constraints of quantum hardware, we propose a modified Gaussian Softmax posterior that decouples latent space dimensionality from the number of topics to be extracted, enabling the model to operate with a low-resource 10-qubit quantum device. On the AgNews dataset, the hybrid VAE outperforms state-of-the-art neural topic models (NTMs), reaching a $C_v$ coherence score of 0.71 and an NPMI score of 0.20 while preserving high topic diversity. For comparison, we also construct a fully classical variant, which also outperforms state-of-the-art models on AgNews and exhibits clear class separation in the latent space. These results demonstrate that hybrid VAEs are computationally viable even on NISQ-era devices and represent a promising direction for quantum-enhanced topic modeling.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Exercise Training Improves Skeletal Muscle Insulin Sensitivity and Reprograms the Adipose Transcriptome in Heavier Monozygotic Twins

Exercise training improves skeletal muscle insulin sensitivity, yet its effects on white adipose tissue remain incompletely understood. We investigated how adiposity and exercise training influence insulin-stimulated glucose uptake in skeletal muscle and abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT), alongside adaptations in gene expression and DNA-methylation. Ten monozygotic twin pairs discordant for BMI underwent [18F]FDG-PET/CT imaging of skeletal muscle (vastus lateralis, VL) and ASAT during a euglycemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp before and after six months of exercise training. VL and ASAT biopsies were analyzed using mRNA-sequencing and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing. Exercise training improved whole-body and VL insulin sensitivity in leaner and heavier co-twins (p

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

IntSeqBERT: Learning Arithmetic Structure in OEIS via Modulo-Spectrum Embeddings

arXiv:2603.05556v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Integer sequences in the OEIS span values from single-digit constants to astronomical factorials and exponentials, making prediction challenging for standard tokenised models that cannot handle out-of-vocabulary values or exploit periodic arithmetic structure. We present IntSeqBERT, a dual-stream Transformer encoder for masked integer-sequence modelling on OEIS. Each sequence element is encoded along two complementary axes: a continuous log-scale magnitude embedding and sin/cos modulo embeddings for 100 residues (moduli $2$–$101$), fused via FiLM. Three prediction heads (magnitude regression, sign classification, and modulo prediction for 100 moduli) are trained jointly on 274,705 OEIS sequences. At the Large scale (91.5M parameters), IntSeqBERT achieves 95.85% magnitude accuracy and 50.38% Mean Modulo Accuracy (MMA) on the test set, outperforming a standard tokenised Transformer baseline by $+8.9$ pt and $+4.5$ pt, respectively. An ablation removing the modulo stream confirms it accounts for $+15.2$ pt of the MMA gain and contributes an additional $+6.2$ pt to magnitude accuracy. A probabilistic Chinese Remainder Theorem (CRT)-based Solver converts the model's predictions into concrete integers, yielding a 7.4-fold improvement in next-term prediction over the tokenised-Transformer baseline (Top-1: 19.09% vs. 2.59%). Modulo spectrum analysis reveals a strong negative correlation between Normalised Information Gain (NIG) and Euler's totient ratio $\varphi(m)/m$ ($r = -0.851$, $p < 10^{-28}$), providing empirical evidence that composite moduli capture OEIS arithmetic structure more efficiently via CRT aggregation.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

On the Stability of the Jacobian Matrix in Deep Neural Networks

arXiv:2506.08764v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep neural networks are known to suffer from exploding or vanishing gradients as depth increases, a phenomenon closely tied to the spectral behavior of the input-output Jacobian. Prior work has identified critical initialization schemes that ensure Jacobian stability, but these analyses are typically restricted to fully connected networks with i.i.d. weights. In this work, we go significantly beyond these limitations: we establish a general stability theorem for deep neural networks that accommodates sparsity (such as that introduced by pruning) and non-i.i.d., weakly correlated weights (e.g. induced by training). Our results rely on recent advances in random matrix theory, and provide rigorous guarantees for spectral stability in a much broader class of network models. This extends the theoretical foundation for initialization schemes in modern neural networks with structured and dependent randomness.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Validating Field-Feasible Measures of Recent Khat Use: A Diagnostic Accuracy Study Comparing Amphetamine Immunoassay and Assisted Self-Report Against HPLC in an Ethiopian Male Cohort

Background: Khat (Catha edulis) is a widely consumed natural amphetamine-analog used across East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Accurate field-feasible measurement of recent khat use is a prerequisite for large-scale epidemiological research; yet no validated alternatives to laboratory reference methods have been identified in the scientific literature. This nested validation study evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of two point-of-care measures, a commercial amphetamine immunoassay and a Timeline Followback (TLFB) Assisted Self-Report (ASR), against high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) quantification of urinary norephedrine (NE), while additionally assessing agreement between the two field measures. Methods: A prospective, random sub-sample of 119 male participants aged 18-40 years from the Gilgel Gibe Field Research Center (GGFRC) longitudinal cohort, Ethiopia (validation timepoint T2, 2015), was used. Three index-reference comparisons were conducted: (1) amphetamine immunoassay (nal von minden, Drug-Screen AMP test, 300 ng/mL cutoff) vs. HPLC; (2) binary ASR (past-week use) vs. HPLC; and (3) binary ASR vs. immunoassay. Sensitivity (positive percent agreement, PPA), specificity (negative percent agreement, NPA), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), overall accuracy (overall percent agreement, OPA), and Cohen's kappa were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Pre-specified secondary analyses applied three pharmacokinetically-informed recall windows (0-2, 3-5, and 6-7 days prior to interview) to ASR. Results: Against HPLC (77 positive, 42 negative), the immunoassay showed perfect specificity (1.0 [0.916-1.0]) and PPV (1.0 [0.91-1.0]) but low sensitivity (0.52 [0.40-0.64]), NPV (0.53 [0.42-0.65]), overall accuracy (0.69 [0.60-0.77]), and weak kappa (0.43 [0.34-0.52]). Binary ASR showed high sensitivity (0.96 [0.89-0.99]), specificity of 0.60 [0.433-0.74], PPV (0.81 [0.72-0.89]), NPV (0.89 [0.72-0.98]), with overall accuracy 0.83 [0.75-0.89] and moderate kappa (0.60 [0.51,0.69]). Restricting ASR to use within 0-2 days improved specificity to 0.69 [0.52-0.84], PPV to 0.86 [0.77-0.93], overall accuracy to 0.87 [0.79-0.93], and kappa to 0.69 [0.61-0.78] (moderate), while sensitivity (0.96 [0.89-0.99]) and NPV (0.89 [0.72-0.98]) remained stable. Against the immunoassay, ASR achieved high PPA of (1.0 [0.91-1.0]), NPA of 0.35 [0.25-0.47], OPA of 0.57 [0.48-0.66], and minimal kappa (0.27 [0.19-0.35]). Conclusions: Time-stratified ASR (0-2 days) is a valid, scalable alternative to biological testing for recent khat use in resource-limited settings. The immunoassay's 300 ng/mL cutoff functions as a marker of heavy or recent high-dose khat use rather than any-use detection. Its perfect specificity and PPV make it valuable as a confirmatory test for substantial exposure, while its lower sensitivity reflects calibration to amphetamine rather than to khat-derived cathinone metabolite. Keywords: khat; Catha edulis; diagnostic accuracy; STARD; self-report; immunoassay; HPLC; Ethiopia; substance use measurement

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Kairos: A Native World Model Stack for Physical AI

World models are transitioning from passive visual generators to foundational, operational infrastructure for Physical AI: they must natively acquire world knowledge from heterogeneous experience, maintain persistent states over long horizons, and execute efficiently within real deployment constraints. We introduce Kairos, a native world model stack designed around these requirements. (1) Kairos learns the world by pioneering a Native Pre-training Paradigm governed by a Cross-Embodiment Data Curriculum, which organizes open-world videos, human behavioral data, and robot interactions into a progressive developmental pathway. (2) Kairos maintains the world by unified world understanding, generation, and prediction within a Native Unified Architecture equipped with Hybrid Linear Temporal Attention, where sliding-window attention captures local dynamics, dilated sliding windows capture mid-range dependencies, and gated linear attention maintains persistent global memory. We establish formal theoretical bounds demonstrating that this temporal factorization strictly limits error accumulation, mathematically guaranteeing state propagation across extended horizons. (3) Kairos runs the world by incorporating a Deployment-Aware System Co-Design to support low-latency rollout generation on server and consumer-grade hardware for real-world observation-action-feedback loops. Experiments on embodied world-model, long-horizon, and action-policy benchmarks show that Kairos achieves top level performance while offering a strong efficiency-capability trade-off. Together, these results position Kairos as a cohesive operational foundation for future self-evolving physical intelligence.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting

arXiv:2606.18993v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Testing conditional independence is fundamental yet intrinsically difficult: without additional assumptions, Type I error control is impossible in general. The "Model-X'' paradigm addresses this difficulty by assuming exact knowledge of a relevant conditional distribution. While small deviations from this assumption can sometimes be tolerated in classical one-shot testing, existing sequential conditional independence tests typically require the Model-X conditional to be known exactly, making them fragile when it must instead be estimated. We propose a new approach that is substantially more robust to such estimation error. Our method applies testing-by-betting to an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, together with a normalization scheme and a truncate-and-shift calibration strategy. These modifications greatly reduce Type I error inflation while preserving high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks, outperforming existing sequential Model-X approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/he-zh/SKCI.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Function

arXiv:2606.12917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present the first causal mechanistic analysis of a tabular foundation model, investigating how TabPFN 2.5's feature wise attention heads distribute computation across layers. Using activation patching, ablation, and attention entropy across two synthetic regression datasets, we find clear temporal specialisation: one head's causal necessity dominates that of the others by 2 to 5 times at peak layer, with its dominant layer shifting across tasks of different complexity, while the remaining heads exhibit symmetric late layer profiles. Attention entropy and patching provide convergent evidence for the computationally active layers of the dominant head. We additionally investigate inference time steerability via contrastive activation steering, which fails to transfer across samples. We attribute this result to TabPFN's in context learning mechanism, which encodes task structure through context dependent attention rather than the stable parametric directions that make steering tractable in language models.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Running the Gauntlet: Re-evaluating the Capabilities of Agents Beyond Familiar Environments

arXiv:2606.14397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As agentic systems continue to evolve and are widely deployed in real-world scenarios, there is a growing demand to faithfully evaluate their capabilities. However, current benchmarks are typically built on popular applications with relatively simple tasks and focus on a narrow set of capabilities while overlooking broader dimensions, resulting in saturated performance on modern agents and failing to probe their limitations. To this end, we introduce GauntletBench, a web-based benchmark for evaluating agent generalisation in challenging scenarios, focusing on three underexplored capabilities (temporal perception, graphical understanding, and 3D reasoning), across five less-covered professional applications (Video Editor, Workflow Builder, 3D Modeller, Flight Analyser, and Circuit Designer), each with 20 vision-intensive tasks (100 in total). Our benchmark provides a modular pipeline that comprises an environment compatible with both open- and closed-source agent frameworks, a controlled web-based application, a well-structured task suite, and an automated evaluation engine with diverse metrics. Contrary to widespread expectations, our empirical results reveal that frontier agentic systems remain far from achieving human-level performance. Even the state-of-the-art agent achieves only a 19.1% success rate on our GauntletBench, highlighting the limitations in these overlooked capabilities and generalisation. By comparison, non-expert human annotators achieve over 80% success on our challenging yet feasible tasks, revealing the substantial gap between current agent capabilities and those required for complex real-world scenarios.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Evaluating Large Language Models Abilities for Addressee, Turn-change, and Next Speaker Prediction in Meetings

We investigate turn-taking in multimodal multi-party conversations using large language models (LLMs). We construct an evaluation framework for three tasks: addressee detection, turn-change prediction, and next speaker prediction. We compare supervised models trained for these tasks, text-based LLMs, multimodal LLMs (MM-LLMs), and human subjects. Experiments on the AMI corpus showed that LLMs outperformed supervised models and humans in next speaker prediction, despite not being trained on the target domain and without access to audio or visual information. An MM-LLM performed better than text-based LLMs on addressee detection and turn-change prediction but remained below human performance, indicating difficulty leveraging raw audio-visual signals. Ablation analyses revealed that conversational context was critical, particularly for next speaker prediction. We observed that human and LLM prediction patterns were similar, and intervals with frequent turn changes were difficult for both.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Honeypot Protocol

作者:

arXiv:2604.13301v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Trusted monitoring, the standard defense in AI control, is vulnerable to adaptive attacks, collusion, and strategic attack selection. All of these exploit the fact that monitoring is passive: it observes model behavior but never probes whether the model would behave differently under different perceived conditions. We introduce the honeypot protocol, which tests for context-dependent behavior by varying only the system prompt across three conditions (evaluation, synthetic deployment, explicit no-monitoring) while holding the task, environment, and scoring identical. We evaluate Claude Opus 4.6 in BashArena across all three conditions in both honest and attack modes. The model achieved 100% main task success and triggered zero side tasks uniformly across conditions, providing a baseline for future comparisons with stronger attack policies and additional models.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

When the Same Musical Knowledge Forgets Differently: A Clean Probe of Pathway-Dependent Forgetting

A model can learn that the piano piece Für Elise is calm and reflective by listening to the audio or by reading a text description, but does it matter which route that knowledge took when it is later at risk of being forgotten? Forgetting research in multimodal models measures what knowledge is lost under adaptation, yet has not asked whether acquisition route affects how easily that knowledge is forgotten. We call this untested premise the Pathway-Invariant Assumption. Music understanding enables a clean test because a music clip and a canonical text description can be aligned to the same perceptual content, allowing the same knowledge unit to enter a model through listening or reading while the target remains fixed. Across multiple architecturally distinct audio-language models, we observe a consistent asymmetry: text-pathway knowledge is forgotten more than matched audio-pathway knowledge under identical adaptation pressure. To attribute this effect to route rather than confounds, we introduce the Paired Pathway Controlled Protocol (PPCP), a three-phase design that establishes matched pathway baselines, activates both pathways under symmetric supervision on the same knowledge pool, and applies identical forgetting pressure to both pathways. The gap is stable across models and gain-controlled analyses, persists when contradictory overwrite is replaced by correct-label cross-domain learning, remains under single-modality pressure, and is not removed by lightweight replay. Two independent routing-depth controls confirm that the effect is not explained by architectural depth, pointing to input representation as the dominant factor. Under PPCP, our results demonstrate that forgetting is highly route-dependent, establishing acquisition route as a new analytical dimension for forgetting research and multimodal system design.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Scalable estimation of temporal clustering in accelerometry: a kernel-independent dispersion index grounded in the Hawkes process

Background. Self-exciting (Hawkes) point processes are a natural model for the temporal clustering of human physical activity (PA) recorded by accelerometers, yet they have seldom been used in this setting—in part because the usual maximum-likelihood fitting is challenging due to potential estimation bias and convergence failures on these data. A moment-based alternative—estimating the Hawkes branching ratio from the dispersion index, the variance-to-mean ratio of event counts—is kernel-independent and computationally trivial, but it has not been evaluated for accelerometry or adapted to the intensity-marked recordings accelerometers provide. Methods. Treating each minute above a sedentary threshold as an event, we estimated the Hawkes branching ratio $n$ by maximum likelihood and, as a kernel-independent and far cheaper alternative, from the dispersion index. We compared four dispersion-based estimators—event-count-based, intensity-mark-weighted using the mark-moment ratio, and time-of-day (TOD) adjusted variants of each—against the marked and unmarked maximum-likelihood estimates. Estimators were evaluated for mutual agreement, goodness of fit, and finite-window results in two National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) accelerometry cohorts (hip-worn, $n=2{,}560$; wrist-worn, $n=3{,}132$). We related the resulting temporal clustering measures to all-cause mortality using survey-weighted Cox models, adjusting for PA frequency, Peak30 (the average of the 30 highest PA values), and demographic covariates. Results. Event-count-based dispersion estimates agreed strongly with maximum-likelihood branching ratios ($rapprox0.74$ in both cohorts); the intensity-marked variant incorporating PA intensity variability agreed less well. Marked and unmarked Hawkes models yielded similar excitation and decay parameters, suggesting PA intensity added little clustering information beyond event timing. In the survival analysis, temporal clustering was associated with all-cause mortality independently of PA frequency and Peak30; the direction of association differed between the hip- and wrist-worn cohorts. Conclusions. A scalable dispersion-index estimator recovers the Hawkes branching ratio and matches maximum-likelihood estimates without requiring kernel specification or iterative optimization. It offers a practical tool for quantifying temporal clustering in accelerometry, enabling decomposition of temporal PA patterns into its exogenous initiation and endogenous persistence. Such temporal patterns carry health-relevant information beyond PA intensity and volume. Keywords: dispersion index; Hawkes process; branching ratio; temporal clustering; point process estimation; accelerometry; mortality

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Representing Time Series as Structured Programs for LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2606.12481v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning and instruction-following capabilities, making them potentially powerful tools for time-series analysis. However, time series lie outside their native textual modality, raising a fundamental question: how should time series be represented so that LLMs can reason about them effectively? Existing work typically serializes raw numerical sequences or fine-tunes pre-trained LLMs on time-series data. These approaches place the burden of extracting temporal structure directly on the LLM, creating a modality mismatch that often degrades performance on long sequences and introduces substantial computational overhead. In this work, we introduce Time-Series-to-Structured-Program representation (T2SP), a deterministic, training-free method that represents a time series as a structured symbolic program. T2SP decomposes time series into trends, periods, and salient events, expressing them in a program-friendly format aligned with the textual and code-like modalities on which LLMs are natively trained. By shifting temporal-structure extraction from the model to the representation itself, T2SP enables off-the-shelf LLMs to leverage their existing reasoning capabilities for time-series understanding. We evaluate T2SP on three reasoning tasks – editing, captioning, and question answering – where it consistently improves performance, reduces reasoning time, and lowers failure rates compared with raw-string representations. Our results demonstrate that T2SP provides an effective interface between time series and LLMs.

22.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-06

Point-of-care early infant HIV diagnosis at birth in a pragmatic cluster-randomized trial in Mozambique and Tanzania: A comparative cost and cost-effectiveness study

by Kira Elsbernd, Issa Sabi, Ilesh V. Jani, Chishamiso Mudenyanga, Siriel Boniface, Arlete Mahumane, Joaquim Lequechane, Falume Chale, Bindiya Meggi, Kassia Pereira, Raphael Edom, Anange F. Lwilla, W. Chris Buck, Nyanda Elias Ntinyinya, Michael Hoelscher, Till Baernighausen, Arne Kroidl, Stefan Kohler, the LIFE Study Consortium Background Timely access to early infant diagnosis (EID) is crucial for newborns with HIV, as late diagnosis can delay lifesaving antiretroviral treatment (ART). We assessed the comparative cost and cost-effectiveness of integrating point-of-care EID at birth into routine care in primary healthcare settings. Methods and findings This pre-specified secondary analysis was nested in the cluster-randomized LIFE study conducted at 28 primary healthcare facilities in Mozambique and Tanzania from October 2019 to September 2021. We estimated the health system cost of point-of-care birth plus 4–8-week HIV testing (very early infant diagnosis; VEID) compared to standard-of-care (SoC) testing at 4–8 weeks only, both with immediate ART initiation. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of VEID relative to SoC with respect to ART initiation within one week of life using Bayesian hierarchical models. As this is an intermediate outcome, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) cannot be directly compared to available life-year-based cost-effectiveness thresholds. To contextualize results, we derived the minimum life-years gained per early ART initiation required for VEID to meet standard thresholds in a break-even analysis.VEID was associated with a higher cost and resulted in earlier ART initiation than SoC in both countries. In Mozambique, VEID increased the proportion of infants initiating ART within one week of life by 90.0 (95% CrI [67.5, 98.5]) percentage points at an incremental cost of $2,632 (95% CrI [$2,249, $3,062]) per infant with HIV. In Tanzania, VEID increased early ART initiation by 59.9 (95% CrI [20.9, 89.5]) percentage points at an incremental cost of $6,263 (95% CrI [$5,394, $7,243]) per infant with HIV. The ICER was $2,924 and $10,458 in Mozambique and Tanzania, respectively and was sensitive to intrauterine transmission rate. These findings were limited by the lack of long-term health outcome data and reliance on an intermediate outcome. Based on the break-even analysis, we estimated that VEID would need to yield 6–32 life-years gained per additional early ART initiation to meet standard thresholds. Conclusions Adding birth testing improved early ART initiation but was unlikely to be cost-effective relative to standard thresholds given current prices, vertical transmission rates, and knowledge of long-term health benefits. Cost-effectiveness could be achieved at current costs if early ART translates to substantial long-term health benefits or if targeted to infants at high risk of vertical transmission.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

PromptMN: Pseudo Prompting Language

Prompting has become the primary interface between humans and generative AI, yet many natural language prompts remain fragile: roles, goals, constraints, and expected outputs are often buried in prose or left implicit. In agentic and software development workflows, a misread at the first handoff can propagate through every step, since a significant portion of agent failures stem from context ambiguities rather than model limitations. This paper introduces PromptMN, a pseudo-prompting domain-specific language that annotates natural language with compact, %-prefixed typed directives covering roles, goals, requirements, priorities, constraints, plans, inputs, and outputs. Semantic resolution lets authors write in any order while the model interprets directives by function. PromptMN sits between informal prompting and programming-style pseudocode: structured enough to be inspectable and reusable, yet lightweight enough for analysts, managers, developers, and stakeholders across the software development lifecycle (SDLC). PromptMN also pairs with reverse prompt engineering. Asking a model to restate a desired outcome as PromptMN lets users inspect the inferred roles, goals, constraints, and missing assumptions before acting, reducing repair cycles and yielding a reusable artifact for aligning people and AI tools. PromptMN's feasibility is evaluated across several frontier models, including Claude Fable 5, Claude Opus 4.8, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.5. The models correctly resolved PromptMN instructions, including complex structures such as repetition, conditionals, methods, and a prime-checking task, without fine-tuning. The same vocabulary applies across new codebases, maintenance, and redesign in the SDLC scenarios presented. While large-scale validation remains future work, these early results suggest PromptMN is a practical step toward clearer, more reviewable human-to-AI interaction.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

ExpRL: Exploratory RL for LLM Mid-Training

arXiv:2606.17024v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparse reward reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard tool for improving LLM reasoning, but its success depends critically on the coverage present in the base model. In practice, models are often primed for RL through mid-training on curated reasoning traces that teach useful primitive skills such as decomposition, verification, or self-correction. Although effective, this strategy requires manually specifying what the model should learn, and it remains unclear whether such primitive coverage is enough for much harder problems, which require combining these skills into broader solution strategies. We study a more automated approach: RL-based mid-training using large corpora of human-written question-answer data. Rather than treating reference solutions as targets to imitate, our method, ExpRL, uses them as reward scaffolds: references are hidden from the policy and used only to construct problem-specific grading rubrics for judging on-policy reasoning traces. The policy samples from the original problem prompt, while an LLM judge compares the sampled reasoning trace against the reference solution and assigns outcome-level or process-level dense rewards. This lets ExpRL reinforce partial progress, useful intermediate reductions, and productive reasoning behaviors that sparse final-answer rewards often fail to upweight. On challenging math reasoning tasks, ExpRL yields stronger RL priming than SFT, sparse-reward GRPO, and self-distillation, and provides a better initialization for subsequent sparse-reward RL. Additional mixed-domain experiments further suggest that ExpRL can extend beyond the original math-only setting.

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arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Data Bias Mitigation under Coverage Constraints & The Price of Fairness

arXiv:2606.20461v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning models have been shown to exhibit discriminatory outcomes or degraded performance for individuals at the intersection of multiple sensitive attributes, such as race and gender. This stems in part from two interrelated challenges: the lack of principled measures for quantifying bias (potentially intersectional), and insufficient representation of intersectional subgroups in training data. We extend a recent bias mitigation framework to incorporate coverage constraints that enforce sufficient representation across groups, including intersectional subgroups. Since achieving exactly zero bias for all groups may not be data efficient (meaning it may require large amounts of data), our solution trades small approximation errors in bias for greater data efficiency while satisfying coverage constraints. We also formulate bias mitigation as an integer linear program that optimizes over all mitigation strategies, and characterize the price of fairness, the minimum data modification cost, as a function of fairness tolerance. This is essential both for legal compliance, where regulations may mandate specific fairness thresholds, and for data governance, enabling practitioners to make informed trade-offs between bias reduction and data modification (particularly, data purchasing) costs. We evaluate our techniques on publicly available datasets, demonstrating that bias mitigation via our framework preserves predictive accuracy across multiple classifiers, and that coverage constraints, while motivated by statistical considerations, are essential for preserving downstream ML performance.