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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

A Stochastic ISCS Markov Model for Fake News Propagation

arXiv:2606.18282v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies the propagation of fake news through a stochastic rumor spreading model based on Markov chains. Inspired by classical epidemiological SIR models, we consider a generalization of the Daley-Kendall framework for rumours that incorporates fact-checkers, following the Ignorant/Spreader/Checker/Stifler model introduced in Piqueira (2020). The model analyzes the influence of checkers on fake news dynamics. Numerical simulations are used to illustrate the behavior of the system and the impact of fact-checkers.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

TxBench-PP: Analyzing AI Agent Performance on Small-Molecule Preclinical Pharmacology

arXiv:2606.19245v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) agents promise to accelerate drug discovery by compressing interpretation and decision-making loops, but practical deployment requires trusted evaluation on realistic program decisions. We introduce TherapeuticsBench Preclinical Pharmacology (TxBench-PP), a verifiable benchmark for small-molecule preclinical pharmacology and the first focused slice of a broader TherapeuticsBench effort across drug-discovery stages and therapeutic modalities. TxBench-PP tests whether agents can recover accurate conclusions from real-world assay data rather than memorized facts from literature. The benchmark contains 100 evaluations indexed by program stage, assay type, and task structure, spanning mechanism-of-action (MoA) and pharmacodynamic (PD) reasoning, compound-target engagement, causal target validation, developability and safety, and translational efficacy. Agents receive realistic workflow snapshots, inspect files in a coding environment, and return structured answers graded deterministically. Across 16 model-harness configurations, comprising 11 models and 4,800 trajectories, no system reliably recovered preclinical pharmacology decisions. The strongest configuration, Claude Opus 4.8 / Pi, passed 59.3\% of endpoint attempts (178/300; 95\% CI, 51.1-67.6), followed by GPT-5.5 / Pi at 55.3\% (166/300; 47.0-63.6).

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Before the Labels: How Dataset Construction Shapes Suicidality Detection in Clinical Text

Clinical NLP increasingly relies on electronic health record (EHR) data to detect suicidal behaviors, treating clinical documentation as more reliable ground truth than social media. We argue that this framing obscures how EHR-based suicidality datasets encode a particular operationalization of suicidality, shaped by who authors the data, how episodes are bounded, and how ambiguity is resolved. We ground this argument in a case study of the ScAN dataset, built over MIMIC-III clinical notes. We show how governance constraints, ICD-based cohort selection, single-annotator labeling, and hospital-stay-level aggregation produce labels that reflect clinician-documented judgments, treat suicidality as a bounded episode, and assume that intent can be reliably inferred from documentation. A linguistic analysis demonstrates that identical labels subsume heterogeneous clinical framings differing in temporality, negation, and uncertainty. We argue that clinical NLP should examine the assumptions embedded in suicidality datasets before interpreting their labels as ground truth.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

DRA-GRPO: Your GRPO Needs to Know Diverse Reasoning Paths for Mathematical Reasoning

Post-training LLMs with Reinforcement Learning, specifically Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has emerged as a paradigm for enhancing mathematical reasoning. However, standard GRPO relies on scalar correctness rewards that are often non-injective with respect to semantic content: distinct reasoning paths receive identical rewards. This leads to a Diversity-Quality Inconsistency, where the policy collapses into a narrow set of dominant modes while ignoring equally valid but structurally novel strategies. To bridge this gap, we propose Diversity-aware Reward Adjustment (DRA), a theoretically grounded framework that calibrates the reward signal using the semantic density of sampled groups. By leveraging Submodular Mutual Information (SMI), DRA implements an Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS) mechanism that effectively de-biases the gradient estimation. This creates a repulsive force against redundancy, driving the policy to achieve better coverage of the high-reward landscape. Our method is plug-and-play and integrates seamlessly with GRPO variants. Empirical evaluations on five math benchmarks demonstrate that DRA-GRPO consistently outperforms strong baselines, achieving an average accuracy of 58.2% on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B with only 7,000 training samples and $55 cost, highlighting the critical role of diversity calibration in data-efficient alignment. The code is available at https://github.com/xiwenc1/DRA-GRPO.

05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

A random recursive tree model with doubling events

arXiv:2501.18466v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a new model of random tree that grows like a random recursive tree, except at some exceptional "doubling events" when the tree is replaced by two copies of itself attached to a new root. We prove asymptotic results for the size of this tree at large times, its degree distribution, and its height profile. We also prove a lower bound for its height. Because of the doubling events that affect the tree globally, the proofs are all much more intricate than in the case of the random recursive tree in which the growing operation is always local.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Adverse Childhood Experiences Reorganise the Brain-Personality Network Across the Psychosis Spectrum

Exposure to adverse childhood experiences is a pervasive risk factor for psychosis, exhibiting a linear relationship across the psychosis spectrum from subclinical schizotypal traits to schizophrenia spectrum disorders. While this association is often conceptualised within the vulnerability-stress framework, the systemic mechanisms through which childhood trauma reconfigures the brain-personality interactome remain poorly understood. We examined clinical, neuropsychological, and neuroimaging data from a sample of low- and high-schizotypy individuals, and patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorder (N=120). Our aim was to map how trauma reconfigures interactions between neurobiology and schizotypal phenomenology. We adopted a mixed graphical model approach to jointly estimate conditional dependencies between childhood trauma, regional brain morphometry, and schizotypal traits across the psychosis spectrum. Our results show that childhood trauma reconfigures the brain-personality network, shifting it from a state driven by cognitive processes to one anchored in emotional (limbic) reactivity. This transition is marked by the increased influence of impulsive traits and a significant strengthening of connections within the salience network. These changes converge with a reduced thickness of the frontal executive regions, the brain's control centres, identified in our models. Collectively, our results suggest a structural phenomenological decoupling, where trauma conditioned affective circuits may bypass weakened top-down regulatory controls. These findings highlight the necessity of using integrative frameworks to capture how trauma fundamentally reshapes the relationship between the brain and schizotypal personality.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

MedVeriSeg: Teaching LISA-Like Medical Segmentation Models to Verify Query Validity Without Extra Training

Despite recent progress in text-prompt-based medical image segmentation, existing LISA-like MLLM-based methods typically generate masks regardless of whether the target specified in the query is present, leading to hallucinated segmentation. In this work, we propose MedVeriSeg, a training-free query verification framework that enables LISA-like medical segmentation models to reject false segmentation queries. MedVeriSeg first quantifies the response quality between the [SEG] token and image features through a Similarity Response Quality Scoring Module. To further improve robustness, it employs a Lightweight Routed Multi-Agent Verification Module, which fuses quantitative score evidence with qualitative agent evidence to comprehensively verify the validity of the query. To support systematic evaluation, we construct MedVeriSeg-Bench, a benchmark designed for query verification in medical image segmentation. Experimental results demonstrate that MedVeriSeg effectively identifies false segmentation queries and reduces hallucinated segmentation, while maintaining a high acceptance rate for valid queries, thereby largely preserving the segmentation utility of LISA-like medical segmentation models.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Differential DNA Methylation and Delirium After Anesthesia and Surgery

Background: DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification that regulates gene expression in response to environmental exposures. We measured differential DNA methylation levels in blood before after general anesthesia and surgery in participants with and without postoperative delirium (POD) and postoperative neurocognitive disorder (PNCD). Methods: Blood sampling, delirium assessment and cognitive testing were prospectively performed at baseline before non-cardiac, non-neurologic surgery, and at 24 hours (24h) and 6 weeks (6wk) thereafter in 94 participants comprising 13 with POD and 81 without POD, and 40 with PNCD and 54 without PNCD 6wk after surgery who were matched for age and sex in the INTUIT and MADCO cohorts. DNA methylation was assessed using the Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC Beadchip. Results: 132 differentially methylated positions (DMPs) annotated to 198 differentially methylated genes (DMGs) were identified in 94 participants 24h after surgery compared to baseline with a local false discovery rate (LFDR)

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Model-Native Computing Architecture: Envisioning Future System Architecture Through the Lens of Computer Architecture

arXiv:2606.00288v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models are undergoing a transition from model technology to system technology. Engineering challenges like cache reuse, context capacity, agent scheduling, and permission control resemble classical computer systems problems. This raises a question: if we treat the LLM as a CPU, KV cache as processor cache, context window as main memory, and agent framework as an operating system, can decades of computer architecture wisdom guide next generation model native systems? This paper pursues this analogy as a visionary survey. We map computer architecture concepts onto the emerging model native stack, survey literature across LLM as OS, memory management, agent frameworks, tool protocols, multi agent coordination, cognitive architectures, and safety governance, finding that each addresses a different layer without a unifying model. We propose the Intelligent Computing Architecture (ICA): six functional layers with interface contracts and design axioms. We resolve the tension over whether the LLM resembles a CPU or OS via a dual plane architecture a probabilistic execution plane (what can be computed) and a deterministic control plane (what should be computed), with every layer passing through as a graded crossover. We propose three Amdahl style design heuristics Semantic Locality, Context Budget, and Agent Speedup as organizing back of envelope models, illustrate their parameter ranges with published data, and identify predictive validation as the principal open task. We articulate analogy boundaries, note differences between silicon and model era architectures, and propose a research roadmap. This is a conceptual and survey contribution with no new experimental results.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Signed Compression Progress on a Sealed Audit is Goodhart-Resistant

arXiv:2606.11417v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Compression progress is a long-standing proposal for intrinsic motivation: reward an agent when its world model becomes better at predicting or compressing experience. The folk claim is that this reward is "credible" because it is paid only for learning. We make this precise and prove it. If intrinsic reward is the signed decrease of a fixed sealed-audit loss, r_t = E(theta_{t-1}) - E(theta_t), then cumulative reward telescopes exactly to endpoint audit improvement, so no policy can push reward up indefinitely while true audit performance stagnates or degrades. For finite audit panels the same result holds with a sharp false-positive budget: cumulative empirical reward is at most true audit improvement plus 2 Delta_n(F, delta), the uniform audit deviation of the model class. This is horizon-free: adaptivity over time costs nothing once the sealed panel uniformly controls the class. The theorem also identifies the failure modes: the guarantee disappears if progress is clipped, scored on the agent's own stream, exposed to a high-capacity model on a reusable panel, or applied to a neural class that makes Delta_n vacuous. We give a Lean 4 mechanization of the structural core (telescoping, the finite-audit bound, finite Gibbs, and the entropy floor) and an experiment suite on ARC-TGI grid-transformation generators with adaptive holdout attacks. Experiments confirm the theory: finite-audit deviation scales as n^{-0.527}; signed progress resists clip-farming, stream leakage, and noisy-TV curiosity; naive reusable audits are exploitable by black-box scalar feedback, while standard release defenses keep the attack below the 2 Delta_n threshold. Signed compression progress on a sealed audit is an accounting signal of genuine improvement.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Using Cognitive Models to Improve Language Model Simulation of Human Persuasion Games

arXiv:2606.17657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: People make decisions differently in strategic interactions. Some update beliefs like a Bayesian; others exhibit biases like motivated reasoning. Although creators of large language models use simulated humans for safety evaluations and training, they often fail to cover this breadth of human behavior. We argue that cognitive science and economics provide a convenient tool for doing so, making use of mathematical models of human decision-making. We propose an approach that we call Equation-to-Behavior Prompting for guiding large language models to match cognitive models, and evaluate this approach on persuasion games based on legal decision-making. We find that large models can approximate equation-based specifications – Bayesian updating, affine distortion, motivated updating, and Grether's $\alpha$-$\beta$ model – using prompting, but small models fail to do so. However, training small models with reinforcement learning to adhere to mathematical rules, Equation-to-Behavior RL, reduces belief error by 26.5% in out-of-distribution parameterizations. We show that these simulations can help create diverse training environments; training small models to consider different kinds of decision-makers improves average belief change by 2.5%–12% over Bayesian-only training, even when persuading GPT-5-mini. Our work could improve human simulations for training and evaluation in increasingly realistic settings, and could also enable novel research into more complicated mathematical models of human decision-making.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Retrieval for Long-Document RAG

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) depends critically on the quality and granularity of retrieved evidence. Large retrieval units preserve context but often introduce irrelevant content, which can dilute answer bearing evidence and worsen long context utilization. Fine-grained units are more compact, but they may be difficult to retrieve reliably because short chunks can lack semantic, lexical, or bridging cues needed to match the query. We propose Uncertainty-aware Multi-Granularity RAG (UMG-RAG), a training-free hybrid retrieval framework that treats chunk granularity as query-specific reliability estimation. Instead of training a new retriever or modifying the generator, UMG-RAG uses existing dense and sparse retrievers as complementary experts across multiple chunk granularities. For each query, it converts each expert-granularity score list into an evidence distribution, estimates reliability from distribution entropy, and fuses candidates according to query-specific semantic, lexical, and granularity confidence. We further introduce UMGP-RAG, a parent promotion variant that uses fine-grained hits to locate relevant evidence while returning broader non-redundant parent chunks for local coherence. Experiments on question answering benchmarks show that uncertainty-aware fusion and parent promotion improve generation quality while maintaining a lightweight, plug-and-play retrieval pipeline.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Hyperinvariant Spin Network States – An AdS/CFT Model from First Principles

arXiv:2510.06602v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the existence and limitations of hyperinvariant tensor networks incorporating a local SU(2) symmetry. As discrete implementations of the anti de-Sitter/conformal field theory (AdS/CFT) correspondence, such networks have created bridges between the fields of quantum information theory and quantum gravity. Adding SU(2) symmetry to the tensor network allows a direct connection to spin network states, a basis of the kinematic Hilbert space of loop quantum gravity (LQG). We consider a particular situation where the states can be interpreted as kinematic quantum states for three-dimensional quantum gravity. We show that important aspects of the AdS/CFT correspondence are realized in certain quantum states of the gravitational field in LQG, thus justifying, from first principles, a class of models introduced by [F. Pastawski et al., JHEP 06, 149 (2015)]. We provide examples of hyperinvariant tensor networks, but also prove constraints on their existence in the form of no-go theorems that exclude absolutely maximally entangled states as well as general holographic codes from local SU(2)-invariance. We calculate surface areas as expectation values of the LQG area operator and discuss further possible constraints as a consequence of a decay of correlations on the boundary.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

MedLatentDx: Latent Multi-Agent Communication for Cross-Hospital Rare-Disease Diagnosis

Rare diseases affect over $300$ million patients across more than $7{,}000$ conditions, yet no single hospital encounters enough cases of any one condition for reliable diagnosis. Cross-hospital collaboration could help by allowing a diagnosing institution to use distributed, case-specific diagnostic evidence, but privacy regulations restrict the transmission of identifiable clinical text across institutional boundaries. This setting raises two challenges: existing medical agent systems often rely on textual evidence exchange, while raw latent states such as hidden states and KV caches may still reveal prompt-derived clinical content. We introduce MedLatentDx, a latent multi-agent communication framework in which hospital agents keep private clinical records and retrieved cases local, and send compact latent KV blocks to a host agent for rare-disease diagnosis. MedLatentDx supports two deployment settings: same-backbone hospital agents use latent KV distillation, while hospitals with different LLM backbones use cross-family latent alignment. On CrossRare-Bench, a self-built large-scale rare-disease benchmark with hospital-level partitions, MedLatentDx improves cross-hospital diagnostic performance while reducing reconstructable clinical content relative to raw-latent communication baselines.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

SACE: Concept Erasure at the Semantic Singularity in Visual Autoregressive Models

The rapid progress of visual autoregressive (VAR) models has unlocked a transformative frontier for high-fidelity text-to-image synthesis, while heightening concerns over the safety alignment of generated content. Naive application of existing erasure techniques to VAR models causes catastrophic semantic collapse and visual artifacts, since they are predominantly designed for the homogeneous denoising steps of diffusion models. To address this foundational challenge, we first propose the Semantic Singularity Axiom, which posits that any target semantic concept embedded within a prompt is definitively locked at Scale-0. Then rigorously validate this axiom through our proposed Incremental Semantic Saliency Analysis (ISSA),which also enable the community to transparently inspect the coarse-to-fine semantic injection process. Guided by this insight, we introduce the first scale-aware concept erasure framework (SACE) for VAR models. By strictly confining interventions to the first scale, our approach couples an Entropy-Regularized Erasure Objective to prevent high-entropy sampling degeneration, alongside a restorative preservation loss to safely anchor the integrity of entangled benign priors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves surgical concept erasure performance across various domains with minimal training overhead, timely and elegently resolute the critical safety vulnerabilities inherent in emerging VAR architectures. Code is available at: https://github.com/limerenceysy/SACE}{https://github.com/limerenceysy/SACE.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

In-Context Environments Induce Evaluation-Awareness in Language Models

Humans often become more self-aware under threat, yet can lose self-awareness when absorbed in a task; we hypothesize that language models exhibit environment-dependent evaluation awareness. This raises concerns that models could strategically underperform, or sandbag, to avoid triggering capability-limiting interventions such as unlearning or shutdown. Prior work demonstrates sandbagging under hand-crafted prompts, but this underestimates the true vulnerability ceiling. We introduce a black-box adversarial optimization framework treating the in-context prompt as an optimizable environment, and develop two approaches to characterize sandbagging: (1) measuring whether models expressing intent to underperform can actually execute it across different task structures, and (2) causally isolating whether underperformance is driven by genuine evaluation-aware reasoning or shallow prompt-following. Evaluating Claude-3.5-Haiku, GPT-4o-mini, and Llama-3.3-70B across four benchmarks (Arithmetic, GSM8K, MMLU, and HumanEval), optimized prompts induce up to 94 percentage point (pp) degradation on arithmetic (GPT-4o-mini: 97.8\%$\rightarrow$4.0\%), far exceeding hand-crafted baselines which produce near-zero behavioral change. Code generation exhibits model-dependent resistance: Claude degrades only 0.6pp, while Llama's accuracy drops to 0\%. The intent – execution gap reveals a monotonic resistance ordering: Arithmetic $

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

PhysDrift: Bridging the Embodiment Gap in Humanoid Co-Speech Motion Generation

arXiv:2606.19935v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Humanoid robots require co-speech motions that are not only expressive and speech-aligned, but also physically executable under embodiment constraints. Existing co-speech generation pipelines are predominantly human-centric: motions are first generated in human-body representations such as SMPL-X and subsequently retargeted to humanoid robots. In this work, we identify a fundamental embodiment gap in this paradigm, where the mismatch between human motion manifolds and humanoid embodiment constraints disrupts embodiment consistency during motion transfer and physical execution. Through extensive analysis, we show that although retargeting can preserve coarse motion semantics, it significantly compresses motion diversity and weakens prosody-motion synchronization, limiting expressive humanoid behaviors. To address this problem, we first propose IK-EER, a prosody-preserving humanoid motion curation framework that jointly optimizes kinematic feasibility and speech-motion temporal alignment during retargeting. Building upon the curated robot-native motion dataset, we further introduce PhysDrift, an embodiment-aware co-speech motion generation framework that directly predicts executable humanoid joint trajectories from speech without relying on intermediate human-body representations. Unlike conventional human-centric pipelines, PhysDrift maintains embodiment consistency throughout both training and inference while incorporating physical regularization to stabilize robot motion dynamics. Extensive experiments and real-world humanoid deployment demonstrate that embodiment-aware robot-native generation substantially improves speech-motion alignment, physical plausibility, motion smoothness, inference efficiency, and real-time interaction capability.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Digital self-efficacy as a potential intermediary between vision impairment and daily internet use among older adults: A cross-sectional analysis of HINTS 2024

Background: Older adults with vision impairment often experience barriers to using digital technology. The indirect associations between vision impairment and digital access and skills via digital self-efficacy and frustration among older adults remain largely unknown. Objective: This study aimed to 1) explore factors associated with digital access, skills, self-efficacy, and frustration among older adults with vision impairment; 2) examine associations between vision impairment and digital access, skills, self-efficacy, and frustration among older adults; and 3) examine whether digital self-efficacy and frustration may help explain associations between vision impairment and digital access and skills among older adults. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study using nationally representative data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) 2024. Respondents aged 60 and older were included. Vision impairment was assessed using a self-reported item. Outcomes included self-reported digital access, skills, self-efficacy, and frustration. Survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression and generalized structural equation modeling were conducted, adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and the number of comorbidities. Results: Among 3,149 older adults (mean [SD] age, 70.7 [10.0] years; 45.6% female), 7.1% (n=223) reported vision impairment. Among older adults with vision impairment, 65.6% (95% CI, 53.5% to 75.9%) used the internet daily, and 79.5% (95% CI, 66.8% to 88.2%) used a smartphone in the past 12 months. In multivariable logistic regression analyses among older adults with vision impairment, older age was associated with lower odds of daily internet use (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90), smartphone use (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.97), wearable device use (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.97), and using the internet to send a message to a healthcare provider (OR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.93). Older adults who self-identified as racial and ethnic minority groups (e.g., Black/African American, Hispanic) had lower odds of daily internet use (OR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.50) and using the internet to send a message to a healthcare provider (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.04 to 0.73) compared with Non-Hispanic White older adults. Vision impairment was associated with lower odds of daily internet use (OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.99) and digital self-efficacy (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.86). Digital self-efficacy was associated with higher odds of daily internet use (OR, 2.95; 95% CI, 2.04 to 4.26). Generalized structural equation modeling identified an indirect association between vision impairment and daily internet use via digital self-efficacy (coefficient, -0.68; 95% CI, -1.24 to -0.12). Conclusions: Findings suggest that reduced digital self-efficacy may help explain the observed association between vision impairment and daily internet use among older adults. Interventions targeting digital self-efficacy, including accessible interface designs, personalized coaching, and peer support, may help bridge the digital divide among older adults with vision impairment.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2604.06464v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds. However, BQ-CP fundamentally requires the i.i.d. assumption. Meanwhile, weighted conformal prediction handles distribution shift via importance weights but remains frequentist, producing only point-estimate thresholds. We propose Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction (WBCP), which generalizes BQ-CP to arbitrary importance-weighted settings by replacing the uniform Dirichlet $\Dir(1,\ldots,1)$ with a weighted Dirichlet $\Dir(\neff \cdot \tilde{w}_1, \ldots, \neff \cdot \tilde{w}_n)$, where $\neff$ is Kish's effective sample size. We prove four theoretical results: (1)~$\neff$ is the unique concentration parameter matching frequentist and Bayesian variances; (2)~posterior standard deviation decays as $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$; (3)~BQ-CP's stochastic dominance guarantee extends to per-weight-profile data-conditional guarantees; (4)~the HPD threshold provides $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$ improvement in conditional coverage. We instantiate WBCP for spatial prediction as Geographical BQ-CP, where kernel-based spatial weights yield per-location posteriors with interpretable diagnostics. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatial datasets demonstrate that WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing substantially richer uncertainty information.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

EvoTrainer: Co-Evolving LLM Policies and Training Harnesses for Autonomous Agentic Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.03108v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autonomous LLM training is often framed as recipe search, which leaves the training harness largely static. This limitation sharpens in agentic RL, where shifting bottlenecks and scalar rewards mask diverse failure modes. We introduce EvoTrainer, an autonomous training framework that co-evolves LLM policies and training-side harnesses through empirical feedback: it diagnoses rollout-level evidence, revises diagnostics, backtests interventions, and accumulates reusable skills. Evaluated on mathematical reasoning, competitive-programming code generation, and repository-level software engineering, EvoTrainer matches or exceeds the human-engineered RL references under the same data, codebase, and evaluation protocol, with the largest gain on long-horizon agentic SWE. Trajectory analyses show that retained strategies diverge across domains, evolving diagnostics prevent invalid high-scoring branches from being promoted, and reusable skills shape later search. Autonomous LLM RL should move beyond recipe search toward joint evolution of policies and the training harnesses that interpret them.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MatchLM2Lite: A Scalable MLLM-to-Lite Framework for Reproduced Content Identification

Content moderation is critical for online video platforms to ensure content safety, protect creators, and sustain positive user experiences. Beyond filtering harmful content, platforms must guarantee content authenticity at scale so that users are exposed to diverse, original videos rather than low-value reproductions. We present MatchLM2Lite, a real-time, production-grade reproduced content identification (RCI) system that leverages the powerful understanding of a multimodal large language model (MLLM) distilled into a small and fast-inference model. Our system jointly models video, audio, and text signals, operating on pairs of videos to produce fine-grained reproduction scores. The system comprises two modules, MatchLM and MatchLite, and a two-stage training recipe. First, our high-capacity MLLM, MatchLM, serves as a teacher model to define the upper bound of RCI performance. Its capabilities are then distilled into a compact student model, MatchLite. This design allows MatchLite to deliver low-latency, high-throughput inference on video pairs while preserving much of MatchLM's accuracy, making it suitable for integration into real-time recommendation systems. MatchLM achieves an F1-score improvement of +8.57 compared to our previous production model. After knowledge distillation, MatchLite retains a +6.55 gain in F1-score while reducing computational cost by 35x. Deployed at scale, MatchLM2Lite enables efficient, pairwise multimodal RCI, stably serving online traffic at high queries per second (QPS) with an end-to-end latency below 30 seconds. This system has reduced the reproduced video view rate on our platform by 2.5% without degrading user engagement, demonstrating its effectiveness in a large-scale production environment.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Antimicrobial-resistant E. coli in human, animal and environmental reservoirs in rural Bangladeshi households with young children

In low-income countries, ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) is frequently detected in humans, animals and household environments, indicating widespread exposure to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Established risk factors such as antibiotic use do not explain the high community carriage of AMR in all settings; identifying the dominant exposure pathways can inform interventions against AMR. We aimed to investigate (i) animal-human-environment sharing of AMR by assessing associations between the abundance of ESBL-EC in the household environment, domestic animal feces and young children's stool and (ii) household factors associated with ESBL-EC abundance in these reservoirs. We enrolled 112 households from the CRADLE trial in rural Bangladesh. We enumerated ESBL-EC in drinking water, food, child hand rinses, outdoor soil, indoor floor swabs, chicken and cow feces, and stool from children aged 6 months. We recorded indicators of sanitation, animal ownership/management, human and animal antibiotic use, and child exposure behaviors using structured questionnaires and spot checks. The highest prevalence of ESBL-EC was in child stool (95.6%) and animal feces (82.3-96.9%), followed by soil (48.2%) and floors (36.6%); < 10% of food, child hands and drinking water harbored ESBL-EC. The abundance of ESBL-EC in child stool was not associated with its abundance in any sampled matrix; the abundance in chicken but not cow feces showed positive correlations with soil, floors, child hands, and drinking water (correlation coefficients: 0.19-0.39, p-values < 0.05). Higher-quality latrines (improved, pour-flush, with slab) were associated with lower ESBL-EC abundance across matrices; unsafe animal management (animals roaming or spending the night inside the home) was associated with higher abundance. Child antibiotic use and exposure behaviors (soil ingestion, time spent on floor) were not associated with ESBL-EC abundance in child stool. We observed high AMR colonization among young children and domestic animals in rural Bangladesh not explained by traditional fecal-oral exposure pathways. Future studies should explore additional pathways and assess whether sanitation and animal management improvements can reduce AMR.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Free Energy Heuristics: Fast-And-Frugal Cognition as Active Inference Under Uncertain Precision

作者:

Chain-of-thought (CoT) improves large language models' performance in math and symbolic reasoning. But on planning, contested ethics, and tasks where the model cannot check itself, more reasoning makes things worse. Both effects are documented; what has been missing is a principled account of which property decides the outcome. We argue it is meta-uncertainty: how unsure the model is about the reliability of its own evidence. When that uncertainty is high, extra reasoning stops adding signal and starts manufacturing false confidence. We prove that the policy minimizing expected free energy under uncertain precision stops integrating cues after a finite number of high-validity ones when the precision prior is heavy-tailed (Theorem 2.6.1), and under a Descending Dominance condition, is sample-wise identical to take-the-best (Theorem 2.7.4). Fast-and-frugal heuristics and active inference are, then, two descriptions of the same computation. The prediction is that on high-meta-uncertainty items, longer CoT should degrade accuracy. We score the regime per item (simulate-and-recover rho > 0.96), build FEH-79, a benchmark of Knightian frames with matched controls, and run a pre-registered study across seven models (five open-weight 3B-32B, two frontier), five CoT lengths, and 7,875 responses. The gate, fixed before any data, required a negative interaction with posterior probability above 0.95 and an accuracy drop of more than 6 points. It held. The high-regime drop is 17.3 points (95% CI [7.7, 25.5]); matched items with definite answers show no cost. The effect is regime-dependent: decisive in capable mid-to-large models, directional in the two frontier systems, absent-to-reversed in the weakest. The framework answers when CoT helps and unifies the Bayesian and fast-and-frugal traditions: less-is-more effects are evidence about the meta-uncertainty regime, not against Bayesian cognition.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

IPSL-AID: Generative Diffusion Models for Climate Downscaling from Global to Regional Scales

arXiv:2604.03275v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change require high-resolution projections to inform strategic decision-making. Conventional global climate models, which typically operate at resolutions of 150 to 200 kilometers, lack the capacity to represent essential regional processes. IPSL-AID is a global to regional downscaling tool based on a denoising diffusion probabilistic model designed to address this limitation. Trained on ERA5 reanalysis data, it generates 0.25 degree resolution fields for temperature, wind, and precipitation using coarse inputs and their spatiotemporal context. It also models probability distributions of fine-scale features to produce plausible scenarios for uncertainty quantification. The model accurately reconstructs statistical distributions, including extreme events, power spectra, and spatial structures. This work highlights the potential of generative diffusion models for efficient climate downscaling with uncertainty