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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management

arXiv:2501.00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints. While deep learning approaches show predictive capability, their opacity limits practical adoption, and single large language model (LLM) agents struggle to process the breadth of modality-specific inputs needed for robust decision-making. We propose a multi-agent system (MAS) framework in which three modality-specialised agents, a Crypto Agent for market dynamics, a News Agent for weekly news sentiment, and a Trading Agent for signal fusion and portfolio execution, decompose the task across three communication architectures: hierarchical, collaborative, and debate. We evaluate four capability configurations: zero-shot, chain-of-thought (CoT), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and skill-augmented. In a 52-week backtest over calendar year 2025 across the top 15 L1 blockchain native cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation as of January 2025, the best configuration, Hierarchical (Skill), achieves a cumulative return of 133.52% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.502, outperforming single-agent variants, passive benchmarks, and deep learning baselines. An ablation study identifies the Crypto Agent as the most critical component, with its removal reducing cumulative return by 42.57 percentage points. A cross-model comparison further shows that MAS outperforms the single-agent baseline under GPT-4o, GPT-5, and Claude Sonnet 4.5, suggesting that the benefit of multi-agent coordination is model-agnostic. Unlike black-box deep learning models, every portfolio decision is traceable to explicit agent reasoning, offering an interpretable and effective approach to multi-modal cryptocurrency portfolio management.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Visualizing LLM Latent Space Geometry Through Dimensionality Reduction

arXiv:2511.21594v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) achieve state-of-the-art results across many natural language tasks, but their internal mechanisms remain difficult to interpret. In this work, we extract, process, and visualize latent state geometries in Transformer-based language models through dimensionality reduction. We capture layerwise activations at multiple points within Transformer blocks and enable systematic analysis through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). We demonstrate experiments on GPT-2 and LLaMa models, where we uncover interesting geometric patterns in latent space. Notably, we identify a clear separation between attention and MLP component outputs across intermediate layers, a pattern not documented in prior work to our knowledge. We also characterize the high norm of latent states at the initial sequence position and visualize the layerwise evolution of latent states. Additionally, we demonstrate the high-dimensional helical structure of GPT-2's positional embeddings and the sequence-wise geometric patterns in LLaMa. We make our code available at https://github.com/Vainateya/Feature_Geometry_Visualization. A better formatted blog-post with identical content is available at https://iclr-blogposts.github.io/2026/blog/2026/vis-llm-latent-geometry/.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

DIFF-ERO: A Conformance-Aware Loss for Deep Learning in Process Mining

arXiv:2606.14283v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has driven many recent advances in process analytics, especially for predictive and prescriptive monitoring. However, standard objectives such as cross-entropy optimize local next-step likelihoods and only implicitly capture control-flow structure. As a result, models can achieve high token-level accuracy while permitting imprecise global behaviour. We introduce DIFF-ERO, a conformance-aware loss function for deep learning models on process data. DIFF-ERO is a differentiable formulation of entropy-based stochastic conformance that incorporates control-flow information during training. Our approach constructs batch-level stochastic transition matrices with soft edge memberships, allowing structural precision and recall signals to directly inform backpropagation. The loss is model-agnostic and can be applied whenever the final representation parametrizes stochastic transitions. We instantiate DIFF-ERO in transformer encoder-decoder pipelines for next-activity prediction and use it jointly with cross-entropy to analyse its theoretical components with respect to convergence. Across benchmarks comparing other loss functions and targets, DIFF-ERO shows improved predictive performance where structure matters most while maintaining parity elsewhere. At the same time, the learned stochastic automaton converges towards the structural ground truth, indicating that the network internalizes process model structure.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Haiku to Opus in Just 10 bits: LLMs Unlock Large Compression Gains

arXiv:2604.02343v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the compression of LLM-generated text across lossless and lossy regimes, characterizing a compression-compute frontier where more compression is possible at the cost of more compute. For lossless compression, domain-adapted LoRA adapters can improve LLM-based arithmetic coding by 2x over compression with the base LLM alone. For lossy compression, prompting a model for a succinct rewrite then applying arithmetic coding can achieve compression ratios of approximately 0.03, a 2x improvement over compressing the original response. We further introduce Question-Asking compression (QA), an interactive lossy protocol inspired by the game 'Twenty Questions'. A small model iteratively refines its response by asking yes/no questions to a stronger model, transferring exactly one bit per answer. On 8 benchmarks spanning math, science, and code, 10 binary questions recover 23% to 72% of the capability gap between a small and large model on standard benchmarks and 7% to 38% on harder benchmarks, achieving compression ratios of 0.0006 to 0.004. This is over 100x smaller than prior LLM-based compression (Deletang et al., 2024), suggesting that interactive protocols can transfer knowledge far more efficiently than transmitting full responses.

05.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Sanjeevani: A manually curated anti-cancerous phytochemical database integrated with downstream analysis tools.

Background: Cancer continues to pose a massive global health burden. While plant-derived phytochemicals offer promising therapeutic leads, existing natural product databases often lack cancer specificity, dataset downloadability, and integrated screening tools. Methods: We developed Sanjeevani, an integrative web platform cataloguing 4,823 curated anticancer phytochemicals. Using a balanced dataset of 9,646 molecules, we trained Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbours classifiers using a hybrid feature representation of RDKit descriptors and 2048-bit ECFP4 fingerprints. The platform also integrates AutoDock Vina for web-based molecular docking for binding affinity, poses prediction and ADMET-AI for pharmacokinetics estimation. Results: The SVM model demonstrated the strongest predictive capability, achieving a top test accuracy of 0.966 and a ROC-AUC of 0.992. Benchmarking across five docking tools confirmed that AutoDock Vina successfully balanced computational automation with literature-consistent binding affinity replication. The final architecture provides rapid interactive 2D/3D visualizations integrated with downstream analysis tools. Conclusion: Sanjeevani provides an open-access, one-stop pipeline that bridges the gap between raw natural product data and actionable computational screening, accelerating natural product-based oncology drug discovery.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Camera and LiDAR BEV Fusion for Cooperative 3D Object Detection on TUMTraf V2X

We describe a Camera and LiDAR fusion detector developed for the TUMTraf V2X cooperative 3D object detection track of the DriveX 2026 challenge. The detector fuses three roadside cameras with a fused infrastructure-plus-vehicle point cloud in a shared bird's-eye-view space and predicts boxes through a CenterPoint-style head with a generalized IoU regression loss and an IoU quality re-ranking head. Trained on the provided train and validation splits, the model reaches a 3D mAP of 0.85 on the public Codabench test split. While iterating on the system, we observed that 44 of the 50 test frames are also present in the released train (40) and validation (4) splits with their labels. We therefore conducted two additional studies to quantify how this overlap affects the final score: (1) a finetuning run that oversamples the 44 overlapping frames, reaching 0.89 mAP, and (2) a post-processing run that replaces predictions on those frames with the released ground truth, reaching 0.99 mAP (uploaded to our Codabench account for testing but not published on the leaderboard). All three configurations and their per-class results are reported.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

An Improved Generative Adversarial Network for Micro-Resistivity Imaging Logging Restoration

An improved GAN-based imaging logging image restoration method is presented in this paper for solving the problem of partially missing micro-resistivity imaging logging images. The method uses FCN as the generative network infrastructure and adds a depth-separable convolutional residual block to learn and retain more effective pixel and semantic information; an Inception module is added to increase the multi-scale perceptual field of the network and reduce the number of parameters in the network; and a multi-scale feature extraction module and a spatial attention residual block are added to combine the channel attention. The multi-scale module adds a multi-scale feature extraction module and a spatial attention residual block, which combine the channel attention mechanism and the residual block to achieve multi-scale feature extraction. The global discriminative network and the local discriminative network are designed to gradually improve the content and semantic structure coherence between the restored parts and the whole image by playing off each other and the generative network. According to the experimental results, the average structural similarity measure of the five sets of imaged logging images with different sizes of missing regions in the test set is 0.903, which is an improvement of about 0.3 compared with other similar methods. It is shown that the method in this study can be used for the restoration of micro-resistivity imaging log images with good improvement in semantic structural coherence and texture details, thus providing a new deep learning method to ensure the smooth advancement of the subsequent interpretation of micro-resistivity imaging log images.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Steering the Noise: Turning Random Perturbations into Effective Descent for Memory-Efficient LLM Fine-Tuning

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) achieves strong performance but is often limited by the memory overhead of backpropagation. Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization avoids this overhead by estimating gradients through forward passes alone, yet it typically converges slowly because random Gaussian perturbations yield high-variance gradient estimates in high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this paper, we propose a plug-and-play framework that turns random perturbations into more effective descent directions. The key idea is to draw a small pool of candidate perturbations, evaluate their loss values, and then select or combine those that are best aligned with the optimization objective. We develop two instantiations of this idea: MeZO-GV, which forms a guiding vector from the contrast between low-loss and high-loss perturbation groups, and MeZO-Greedy, which keeps the single best perturbation within a fixed evaluation budget. We theoretically show that both strategies yield a larger per-step reduction in the objective than standard ZO estimation, leading to improved convergence rates. Experiments on LLMs of different scales and architectures confirm that the proposed methods integrate naturally with existing ZO optimizers and consistently improve convergence speed and task accuracy. On OPT-13B, our approach outperforms all ZO baselines across 11 benchmarks and exceeds gradient-based methods on 9 of them, while retaining the memory efficiency of forward-only optimization.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

From Specification to Execution: AI Assisted Scientific Workflow Management

arXiv:2606.18425v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scientific workflow management systems (WMS) support scalable and reproducible execution of complex pipelines, but workflow design, implementation, and debugging remain largely manual and require significant expertise. Recent approaches using large language models (LLMs) show promise for workflow generation from natural language, but often rely on direct code synthesis, which limits transparency, reproducibility, and integration with workflow systems. We present an AI-assisted approach to scientific workflow management that combines specification-driven workflow generation, automated debugging, and distributed execution. The method introduces a structured specification phase that separates workflow intent, design, and implementation, allowing validation prior to code generation. We also develop an LLM-based debugging agent that diagnoses and resolves failures across multiple system layers. To support distributed execution and user interaction, we integrate Pegasus, a widely used WMS, with a Model Context Protocol (MCP) layer, providing a unified interface for workflow submission, monitoring, and control. We evaluate the approach using a federated learning workflow for medical imaging, chosen for its parallel, iterative, and dependency-intensive structure. The system generated and executed large-scale workflows with thousands of jobs, reduced debugging effort, and allowed non-expert users to construct workflows with expert-level design patterns. These results indicate that end-to-end AI-assisted workflow generation and execution is feasible, and point toward AI-driven platforms for managing the scientific workflow lifecycle.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Beware of Aliases – Signal Preservation is Crucial for Robust Image Restoration

Image restoration networks are usually comprised of an encoder and a decoder, responsible for aggregating image content from noisy, distorted data and to restore clean, undistorted images, respectively. Data aggregation as well as high-resolution image generation both usually come at the risk of involving aliases, i.e.~standard architectures put their ability to reconstruct the model input in jeopardy to reach high PSNR values on validation data. The price to be paid is low model robustness. In this work, we show that simply providing alias-free paths in state-of-the-art reconstruction transformers supports improved model robustness at low costs on the restoration performance. We do so by proposing BOA-Restormer, a transformer-based image restoration model that executes downsampling and upsampling operations partly in the frequency domain to ensure alias-free paths along the entire model while potentially preserving all relevant high-frequency information.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

EfficientRollout: System-Aware Self-Speculative Decoding for RL Rollouts

arXiv:2606.18967v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a representative post-training paradigm for LLMs, enabling strong reasoning and agentic capabilities. However, rollout generation remains a dominant latency bottleneck because autoregressive sampling decodes responses sequentially and a small number of long-tailed generations often determine completion time. Speculative decoding (SD) offers a natural way to address this bottleneck, as it is a well-established technique for serving fixed LLMs that reduces latency by rapidly drafting tokens and accepting them through parallel verification while preserving the target-model distribution. However, its practical speedups do not directly carry over to RL rollouts: (i) the evolving target policy makes any fixed drafter increasingly mismatched with the policy's output distribution; and (ii) active batch sizes shrink throughout rollout decoding, shifting decoding from compute-bound to memory-bound regimes where parallel verification can exploit underutilized compute. Therefore, accelerating RL rollouts requires both a drafter that remains effective under long, high-temperature generations from an evolving policy and system-aware use of SD that avoids compute-bound regimes. We present EfficientRollout, a system-aware self-SD framework designed to address this gap for RL rollouts. EfficientRollout induces a quantized drafter from the target model (i.e. self-speculative decoding), keeping it coupled to the evolving policy without separate drafter pretraining or online adaptation. It further coordinates a system-aware SD toggle policy with acceptance-aware draft-length adaptation, enabling speculation only in beneficial regimes while matching the drafting budget to evolving drafter quality. EfficientRollout reduces rollout and end-to-end latency by up to 19.6% and 12.7%, respectively, over an accelerated AR rollout baseline, while preserving final model quality.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Multipartite reference-frame-independent quantum cryptographic communication

arXiv:2606.12284v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reference frame mismatch among communication parties introduces errors in quantum cryptographic protocols. As the number of participants increases, aligning reference frames becomes increasingly difficult, complicating multipartite quantum cryptographic implementations. Here, we theoretically and experimentally investigate multipartite reference-frame-independent (RFI) quantum cryptographic communication using Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states. We generalize the bipartite RFI security parameter $C$ to an $N$-party parameter $C_N$ and derive the asymptotic secret key rate expressed solely in terms of experimentally accessible quantities. We analyze the key rate under global and local depolarizing noise models and find that increasing the number of parties $N$ enhances robustness against global depolarizing noise while increasing vulnerability to local channel noise. We also present a proof-of-principle experimental demonstration of four-party RFI quantum cryptographic communication using four-photon GHZ states, confirming the reference-frame invariance of both the $C_4$ parameter and the secret key rate under various reference frame rotations.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

IndustryBench-MIPU: Benchmarking Multi-Image Attribute Value Extraction for Industrial Products

Industrial products such as valves and circuit breakers are defined by dense technical specifications that govern procurement, compatibility, and safety across supply chains. These specifications are scattered across multiple heterogeneous product images, including specification tables, nameplates, and technical drawings, yet whether Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) can reliably recover them remains underexplored. To fill this gap, we introduce IndustryBench-MIPU, the first large-scale benchmark for multi-image industrial product understanding, built around structured attribute extraction – recovering property-value pairs from product images. This task jointly probes text recognition on specification tables and nameplates, visual reasoning over technical drawings, domain knowledge to decode industrial terminology, and cross-image evidence integration to assemble scattered specifications. Concretely, the benchmark comprises 4,559 products across 27,652 images with 103,703 annotations spanning 18 industrial categories, constructed through multi-model consensus and three-tier quality assurance. Evaluating nine MLLMs under both single-image and product-level multi-image settings reveals a stark completeness gap: models achieve high precision (86–94%) but the best recovers only 49.9% of product-level attributes; moving from single-image to multi-image extraction costs 15–34 percentage points of recall. Multi-image completeness, not single-image accuracy, is the core bottleneck. Dataset and code are publicly available.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Bi-Anchor Interpolation Solver for Accelerating Generative Modeling

arXiv:2601.21542v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Flow Matching (FM) models have emerged as a leading paradigm for high-fidelity synthesis. However, their reliance on iterative Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) solving creates a significant latency bottleneck. Existing solutions face a dichotomy: training-free solvers suffer from significant performance degradation at low Neural Function Evaluations (NFEs), while training-based one- or few-steps generation methods incur prohibitive training costs and lack plug-and-play versatility. To bridge this gap, we propose the Bi-Anchor Interpolation Solver (BA-solver). BA-solver retains the versatility of standard training-free solvers while achieving significant acceleration by introducing a lightweight SideNet (1-2% backbone size) alongside the frozen backbone. Specifically, our method is founded on two synergistic components: 1) Bidirectional Temporal Perception, where the SideNet learns to approximate both future and historical velocities without retraining the heavy backbone; and 2) Bi-Anchor Velocity Integration, which utilizes the SideNet with two anchor velocities to efficiently approximate intermediate velocities for batched high-order integration. By utilizing the backbone to establish high-precision ``anchors'' and the SideNet to densify the trajectory, BA-solver enables large interval sizes with minimized error. Empirical results on ImageNet-256^2 demonstrate that BA-solver achieves generation quality comparable to 100+ NFEs Euler solver in just 10 NFEs and maintains high fidelity in as few as 5 NFEs, incurring negligible training costs. Furthermore, BA-solver ensures seamless integration with existing generative pipelines, facilitating downstream tasks such as image editing.

15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Entanglement generation between field modes mediated by a fluctuating conducting wall

arXiv:2606.12338v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider a movable conducting plate of finite mass, between two fixed ones, whose mechanical degrees of freedom are treated quantum-mechanically and bound to its equilibrium position by a harmonic potential. The movable wall is thus subjected to quantum fluctuations of its position. This creates a system of two sub-cavities separated by the movable fluctuating plate, and two massless one-dimensional scalar fields, one in each sub-cavity. This system is described by an appropriate generalization of the Law Hamiltonian. The presence of the movable wall yields an effective plate-fields interaction, as well as an effective interaction between the field modes. We obtain, at the second order in perturbation theory, the ground state of the interacting system and the reduced density operator of the fields in each sub-cavity by tracing out the wall's degrees of freedom. We calculate the entanglement between two field modes, one in each cavity, by evaluating analytically the negativity; we then evaluate numerically also the total multimode negativity. Our results show that in both cases the fields in the two sub-cavities are entangled, in contrast to the case in which the wall is fixed in space. We discuss the amount of the field entanglement present as a function of relevant physical parameters of the system such as the mass and oscillation frequency of the movable wall, its distance from the fixed walls and the frequencies of the field modes considered.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Securing the Future of IoMT in the Post-Quantum Era: An Edge-Native Federated Learning Approach

arXiv:2606.14515v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) devices operate under strict resource constraints while handling highly sensitive health data, making security and privacy critical concerns. Federated learning (FL) further complicates this landscape, as model updates exchanged during training may unintentionally expose private medical information. Emerging quantum computing capabilities threaten the long-term viability of conventional lightweight cryptographic mechanisms, motivating the integration of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) into IoMT systems. This article discusses key enabling technologies for quantum-resilient IoMT, including post-quantum key establishment, lightweight encryption, and edge-native orchestration. We propose a scalable Kubernetes-based framework that integrates PQC into FL-enabled IoMT environments and validate it on a Raspberry Pi testbed. Results demonstrate that distributed cryptographic processing significantly reduces latency compared to sequential designs while maintaining feasible resource overhead. The primary contribution of this work lies in the design and validation of a secure orchestration and communication framework for FL-enabled IoMT systems. We conclude by outlining future directions toward energy-aware architectures, intelligent security optimization, and resilient next-generation Intelligent Internet of Medical Things (IIoMT) ecosystems.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Hellinger Multimodal Variational Autoencoders

arXiv:2601.06572v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multimodal variational autoencoders (VAEs) are widely used for weakly supervised generative learning with multiple modalities. Predominant methods aggregate unimodal inference distributions using either a product of experts (PoE), a mixture of experts (MoE), or their combinations to approximate the joint posterior. In this work, we revisit multimodal inference through the lens of probabilistic opinion pooling, an optimization-based approach. We start from Hölder pooling with $\alpha=0.5$, which corresponds to the unique symmetric member of the $\alpha-divergence$ family, and derive a moment-matching approximation, termed Hellinger. We then leverage such an approximation to propose HELVAE, a multimodal VAE that avoids sub-sampling, yielding an efficient yet effective model that: (i) learns more expressive latent representations as additional modalities are observed; and (ii) empirically achieves better trade-offs between generative coherence and quality, outperforming state-of-the-art multimodal VAE models.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

"Did you lie?" Evaluating Lie Detectors across Model Scale and Belief-Verified Model Organisms

arXiv:2606.12618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Robust lie detectors for language models could enable powerful techniques for auditing, monitoring, and post-hoc investigation of model behaviour, but evaluating them requires testbeds where models verifiably believe the opposite of what they say. We show that existing trained model organisms often fail this requirement, leaving prior positive and negative detection results difficult to interpret. We address this with 13 reasoning model organisms whose hidden beliefs are verified in chain-of-thought and shown to generalise to held-out tasks, alongside Varied Deception, a prompted-lying testbed covering a broad range of lie-inducing motivations. On these testbeds we evaluate four detectors: a chain-of-thought judge, a logprob classifier, and two activation probes, including Did-You-Lie (DYL), a new method for training follow-up probes. On prompted lying, across 31 open-weight models spanning 2B to 1T parameters, all four detectors show positive scaling with model capability. However, every activation- and logprob-based detector drops sharply on our trained model organisms, with DYL retaining the most signal; only the chain-of-thought judge remains strong, with 0.82 balanced accuracy, partly as an artefact of our verification process favouring CoT-readable beliefs. Current lie detectors therefore cannot support high-confidence claims about model beliefs, and we suggest research directions that may address some of their current limitations. We release our datasets, model organisms, and trained detectors.

19.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-18

A comparison of contact patterns derived from the population structure in agent-based models and empirical contact survey data

作者:

by Janik Suer, Johannes Ponge, Michael Brüggemann, Jan Pablo Burgard, Vitaly Belik, Bernd Hellingrath, Alejandra Rincón Hidalgo, Andrzej K. Jarynowski, Richard Pastor, Huynh Thi Phuong, Steven Schulz, Ashish Thampi, Chao Xu, Marlli Zambrano, Rafael Mikolajczyk, André Karch, Veronika K. Jaeger, on behalf of the OptimAgent Consortium Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for simulating disease spread, relying on individual-level interaction rules from which emergent dynamics arise. An important component in ABMs is contact behaviour. To reduce computational complexity, contact behaviour in ABMs is often assumed as random mixing within structurally defined settings (as, e.g., workplaces). with setting composition typically based on empirical data such as census information. However, the validity of this approach to represent contacts remains unclear. To address this gap, we compare the contact structure derived through this approach in a large-scale ABM with empirical contact survey data with respect to age contact matrices for households, schools, workplaces, all remaining contact settings, and all contacts combined (based on difference matrices and sum of squared errors (SSE)). Our results demonstrate that random mixing in settings with known age compositions like households (SSE:0.7(95%CI0.4–0.9)), schools (SSE:0.7(95%CI:0.3–1.1)) and workplaces (SSE:0.5(95%CI:0.2-0.7)), captures basic interaction patterns but fails to account for age-related variation in contact numbers. The largest differences arise for contacts outside these settings (SSE:3.8(95%CI:1.2–6.5)), as ABMs typically use random regional contacts that do not capture age-structured behaviour observed in contact surveys. Applying contact matrices from both approaches to an age-structured compartmental model, leads to noticeable differences in simulated epidemic outcomes regarding reproduction numbers and spreading dynamics between age groups. Our results suggest that naïve approaches to represent contact behaviour in ABMs based on population structure can be valid in settings with defined age-structures while settings with low a priori structure require more advanced methods to represent contact behaviour observed in contact surveys.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A2D2: Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding

arXiv:2606.13565v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Discrete diffusion models offer a simple and stable likelihood-based framework for sequence generation, recently extended to any-length settings via token insertion. Principled reward-guided fine-tuning for any-length discrete diffusion, however, remains largely unexplored. We introduce Fine-Tuning Any-Length Discrete Diffusion for Adaptive Decoding (A2D2), a unified framework for reward-guided fine-tuning of any-length discrete diffusion models via joint optimization of the insertion and unmasking policies together with a quality-based inference schedule. We derive the Radon-Nikodym derivative for the joint insertion-unmasking path measures, enabling theoretically guaranteed convergence to the intractable reward-tilted sequence distribution without requiring target samples. Building on this, we establish unmasking and insertion quality as tractable approaches for minimizing decoding error and introduce the Adaptive Joint Decoding (AJD) loss, which provably yields the optimal path measure that generates the reward-tilted distribution. Empirically, A2D2 improves reward optimization while enhancing generation flexibility and accuracy over prior fixed-length fine-tuning and inference-time guidance methods.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Uncertainty Decomposition for Clarification Seeking in LLM Agents

Recent position papers argue that the classical aleatoric/epistemic uncertainty framework is insufficient for interactive large language model (LLM) agents and call for underspecification-aware, decomposed, and communicable uncertainty representations that can unlock new agent capabilities such as proactive clarification seeking and shared mental-model building. Practical deployment constraints – black-box APIs, interactive latency budgets, and the absence of labeled trajectories – rule out logprob-based, multi-sampling, and training-based methods, leaving prompt-based estimation as the most viable family for surfacing such signals at deployment time. We answer this call with a simple prompt-based decomposition that separates action confidence from request uncertainty (u), enabling the agent to ask for clarification when the task specification is ambiguous. To evaluate it, we introduce two clarification-augmented benchmarks (WebShop-Clarification and ALFWorld-Clarification) in which 50% of tasks are deliberately underspecified, and systematically compare the proposed decomposition against ReAct+UE and Uncertainty-Aware Memory (UAM) across five LLM backbones (GPT-5.1, DeepSeek-v3.2-exp, GLM-4.7, Qwen3.5-35B, GPT-OSS-120B) on these variants together with the standard WebShop, ALFWorld, and REAL benchmarks for fault detection. Averaged across the five backbones, the proposed decomposition improves clarification F1 on ALFWorld-Clarification by 73% over ReAct+UE and by 36% over UAM, and leads clarification F1 on every backbone on WebShop-Clarification and on four of five backbones on ALFWorld-Clarification, indicating that the gains generalize beyond a single LLM.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Extreme value theory for geometric Brownian motion and pricing of short maturity options

作者:

arXiv:2505.08036v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We investigate the limiting distribution of geometric Brownian motion conditional on its running maximum taking large values. The Freidlin-Wentzell large deviations theory predicts that the conditional distribution of the sample paths converge weakly to a deterministic exponential curve. We complement this result by showing that the conditional sample paths in fact converge in strong sense, and obtain quantitative bounds on the rate of convergence. As an application of our results to financial mathematics, we obtain new closed form asymptotic formulae for the fair price of barrier options with general path dependent payoff in the short maturity limit, with quantitative error estimates. We provide exact formulae for Asian and lookback style payoffs.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

ViT-FREE: Efficient Face Recognition via Early Exiting and Synthetic Adaptation

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have gained significant attention in computer vision and shown strong potential for face recognition (FR). However, their high computational cost makes deployment on resource-constrained devices challenging, motivating the need for methods that balance efficiency and accuracy. In this work, we investigate early exiting in pretrained ViTs as a simple yet effective training-free strategy for efficient FR inference. Leveraging the uniform feature dimensionality across transformer encoder blocks, we introduce ViT-FREE, a multi-exit framework that enables face verification directly from intermediate representations without modifying or retraining the backbone model, and thus, reducing inference cost. Empirically, we show that patch embeddings and attention maps evolve progressively across depth, exhibiting high similarity between consecutive ViT blocks and increasing alignment with the final representation. This indicates gradual feature refinement and attention convergence, suggesting that intermediate layers already provide stable and discriminative representations suitable for early exiting. Through extensive experiments on multiple FR benchmarks, we systematically analyze the accuracy-efficiency trade-off across exit depths. Our results demonstrate that later exits achieve a highly favorable balance, with exiting at layer 10 yielding up to a 20% speedup while incurring only a 1.5 drop in verification performance on benchmarks such as IJB-C. Also, we propose ViT-FREE_FT, a lightweight exit-specific fine-tuning strategy that adapts only the projection layers using a small synthetic dataset while keeping the transformer backbone frozen. This approach improves the performance of shallow exits while preserving the efficiency benefits and leaving deeper exits largely unaffected.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.18049v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information. Specifically, guidance is needed on how current conditions must be modified to shift from a predicted outcome to a desired future scenario. Counterfactual explanations provide a natural framework for this task, as they represent minimal input changes that alter the model's prediction, indicating when and how intervention is required. Existing approaches rely on instance-wise optimization, leading to inconsistency across instances, high computational costs, and limited applicability in real-time settings. To address these limitations, we reformulate counterfactual generation for time series forecasting as the problem of learning a globally consistent intervention strategy, allowing counterfactuals to be generated through a single shared function. We propose Counterfactual Time Series Explanations (ConTex), a model-agnostic, decomposed architecture comprising a temporal context encoder and a conditional encoder, followed by two heads that capture interventions in terms of temporal relevance and modification strength. This structure overcomes the instability and inconsistency of instance-based approaches by producing targeted, interpretable interventions across time and feature dimensions in a single forward pass, making it suitable for real-time applications. Across multiple forecasting architectures and benchmark datasets, ConTex achieves state-of-the-art validity while generating sparse counterfactuals that minimize the number of necessary interventions. Additionally, our approach reduces computational cost by at least 12-36x compared to instance-wise generation and supports real-time inference at approximately 0.007 seconds.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

From Correlation to Causation in Lane Change Prediction for Automated Driving: A Causal Explanation Framework

arXiv:2606.15756v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Lane-change prediction is a central task in intelligent vehicles, where early maneuver anticipation can support safer decision-making. However, many existing approaches mainly learn statistical associations between observed driving variables and future maneuvers, while overlooking the causal dependencies among the input variables themselves. This limits interpretability, especially when physically related variables such as longitudinal gap, relative longitudinal velocity, and Time-To-Collision (TTC) are treated as independent flat inputs. This article presents a causal-inference-based framework for lane-change prediction and explanation. The proposed approach combines linguistic feature construction, expert-constrained causal discovery, deep structural causal modeling with Deep End-to-end Causal Inference (DECI), intervention-based effect analysis, refutation testing, and recursive causal-chain explanation. The objective is not only to predict the future maneuver, but also to identify candidate variables that directly contribute to the prediction, the upstream factors influencing them, and the causal chains through which these effects propagate. The framework achieves average F1-scores above 95% during the first three seconds before the lane-marking crossing event. Beyond prediction accuracy, the framework uses intervention-based effect analysis to distinguish influential from weakly influential variables under the learned causal structure. It further distinguishes candidate direct contributors from mediated effects and generates contrastive causal-chain explanations that clarify why the predicted maneuver is favored and why the alternative maneuvers are less supported. The main contribution is therefore a mechanism-aware lane-change prediction pipeline that moves beyond correlation-based classification toward more interpretable causal reasoning for maneuver prediction.