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01.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

Daily briefing: First-ever ‘nuclear’ clocks put atomic clocks in the shade

作者:

Two research teams have created a new, long-awaited type of timekeeper. Plus, how backlash has saved an ocean-monitoring network targeted by Trump and how our cultural heritage is put at risk by climate change. Two research teams have created a new, long-awaited type of timekeeper. Plus, how backlash has saved an ocean-monitoring network targeted by Trump and how our cultural heritage is put at risk by climate change.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

HMR-Net: Hierarchical Modular Routing for Cross-Domain Object Detection in Aerial Images

Despite advances in object detection, aerial imagery remains a challenging domain, as models often fail to generalize across variations in spatial resolution, scene composition, and semantic label coverage. Differences in geographic context, sensor characteristics, and object distributions across datasets limit the capacity of conventional models to learn consistent and transferable representations. Shared methods trained on such data tend to impose a unified representation across fundamentally different domains, resulting in poor performance on region-specific content and less flexibility when dealing with novel object categories. To address this, we propose a novel modular learning framework that enables structured specialization in aerial detection. Our method introduces a hierarchical routing mechanism with two levels of modularity: a domain routing layer that uses latent geographic embeddings to assign inputs to domain-specialized expert modules, and a scene routing mechanism that allocates image subregions to scene-specific expert modules. This allows our method to specialize across datasets and within complex scenes. Additionally, the framework contains a conditional expert module that uses external semantic information (e.g., category names or textual descriptions) to enable detection of novel object categories during inference, without the need for retraining or fine-tuning. By moving beyond monolithic representations, our method provides an adaptive framework for remote sensing object detection. Comprehensive evaluations on four datasets highlight improvements in multi-dataset generalization, region-level specialization, and open-category detection.

04.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Dual Cross-Attention Siamese Transformer for Rectal Tumor Regrowth Assessment in Watch-and-Wait Endoscopy

Increasing evidence supports watch-and-wait (WW) surveillance for patients with rectal cancer who show clinical complete response (cCR) at restaging following total neoadjuvant treatment (TNT). However, accurate methods to early detect local regrowth (LR) from follow-up endoscopy images during WW are essential to manage care and prevent distant metastases. Hence, we developed a Siamese Swin Transformer with Dual Cross-Attention (SSDCA) to combine longitudinal endoscopic images at restaging and follow-up and distinguish cCR from LR. SSDCA leverages pretrained Swin Transformers to extract domain agnostic features and enhance robustness to imaging variations. Dual cross attention is implemented to emphasize features from the paired scans without requiring any spatial alignment to predict response. SSDCA as well as Swin-based baselines were trained using image pairs from 135 patients and evaluated on a held-out set of image pairs from 62 patients. SSDCA produced the best balanced accuracy (81.76% $\pm$ 0.04), sensitivity (90.07% $\pm$ 0.08), and specificity (72.86% $\pm$ 0.05). Robustness analysis showed stable performance irrespective of artifacts including blood, stool, telangiectasia, and poor image quality. UMAP clustering of extracted features showed maximal inter-cluster separation (1.45 $\pm$ 0.18) and minimal intra-cluster dispersion (1.07 $\pm$ 0.19) with SSDCA, confirming discriminative representation learning. Code and weights available at: https://github.com/Jotanator/SSDCA

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

When in Doubt, Plan It Out: Committed Small Language Model Deliberation for Reactive Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.16995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement Learning (RL) policies often degrade in unfamiliar environments because they lack explicit deliberation. We propose Plan, Align, Commit, Think (PACT), a hybrid architecture that combines a fast, reactive RL policy with a slow, deliberative Small Language Model (SLM) planner. PACT invokes the SLM asynchronously to generate and validate candidate action plans. Once a plan is verified through simulation as safe, feasible, and complete, it is executed directly, bypassing the RL policy without retraining or modifying it. Evaluated on three FrozenLake configurations of increasing difficulty, PACT outperforms all baselines while relying on a 2B-parameter SLM backbone, suggesting that deliberative planning and reactive execution are more powerful in concert than either is alone in these settings.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Can Vision-Language Models See the Vital Signs? Benchmarking and Fine-Tuning for Intraoperative Monitor Reading

Background Vital-sign deterioration is a leading contributor to preventable perioperative death, yet manual monitor reading is intermittent, error-prone, and subject to alarm fatigue. Automating this perceptual step could enable continuous surveillance, but existing solutions depend on device-specific hardware integration or cloud-hosted vision-language models (VLMs), which raise privacy, cost, and connectivity barriers in resource-limited healthcare facilities. Methods We constructed a benchmark of 200 in-the-wild intraoperative monitor photographs (spanning multiple vendors, angles, and illumination conditions) annotated for eight vital-sign parameters: heart rate, SpO2, ETCO2, respiratory rate, systolic/diastolic/mean blood pressure, and temperature. We evaluated an optical character recognition (OCR)-based pipeline, nine instruction-tuned VLMs (four commercial, five open-weight ranging from [≤]4B to 31B parameters) under two prompting regimes, and a compact open model (Qwen3.5-9B) adapted via low-rank fine-tuning (LoRA, 0.46% of parameters updated). Results Under a domain-aware prompt, frontier VLMs reached 0.98-0.997 exact-match accuracy zero-shot, whereas the OCR pipeline and [≤]4B model scored approximately 0.20 lower, defining a 9B-class usable floor. LoRA fine-tuning Qwen3.5-9B on 80-120 images raised accuracy from 0.953 to 0.994 (statistically indistinguishable from the best commercial model) and reduced the critical-error rate fivefold (0.0313 [->] 0.0063). Ablations showed that performance saturated at 80 training images and rank-8 adapters. Conclusion Monitor reading is a solved perception problem for VLMs above the 9B scale. A lightweight fine-tuned open model achieves frontier accuracy while running entirely on local hardware, preserving data privacy, offline capability, and near-zero marginal cost. Residual errors stem from blood-pressure source ambiguity and are addressable with explicit disambiguation logic.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Native Active Perception as Reasoning for Omni-Modal Understanding

Passive models for long video understanding typically rely on a "watch-it-all" paradigm, processing frames uniformly regardless of query difficulty, causing computational cost to grow with video duration. Although interactive frameworks have emerged, they often rely on global pre-scanning, and their context cost still scales with video length. We propose OmniAgent, the first native omni-modal agent that formulates video understanding as a POMDP-based iterative Observation-Thought-Action cycle. OmniAgent executes on-demand actions to selectively distill audio-visual cues into a persistent textual memory, effectively decoupling reasoning complexity from raw video duration. To operationalize this, we introduce (1) Agentic Supervised Fine-Tuning to bootstrap native active perception via best-of-N trajectory synthesis with dual-stage quality control, and (2) Agentic Reinforcement Learning with TAURA (Turn-aware Adaptive Uncertainty Rescaled Advantage), which leverages turn-level entropy to steer credit assignment toward pivotal discovery turns. Crucially, OmniAgent exhibits positive test-time scaling, where performance improves as the number of reasoning turns increases, validating the efficacy of active perception. Empirical results across ten benchmarks (e.g., VideoMME, LVBench) demonstrate that OmniAgent achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source models. Notably, on LVBench, our 7B agent outperforms the 10$\times$ larger Qwen2.5-VL-72B (50.5% vs. 47.3%).

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

HierSVA: A Data Synthesis Pipeline, Dataset, and Benchmark for LLM-Driven Hierarchical Hardware Formal Verification

arXiv:2606.13706v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present HierSVA, an integrated suite that combines a pipeline, dataset, and benchmark for LLM-driven hierarchical hardware formal verification. HierSVA-SP pairs an RTL preprocessing toolchain with an LLM-in-the-loop formal verification flow to produce reference SystemVerilog Assertions (SVA) on hierarchical RTL. Applying it to BaseJump STL yields HierSVA-DS, a dataset of 342 modules, with hierarchy metadata and depths 0–9, accompanied by a deep subset of 28 module-bug pairs with natural-language specifications and bug variants. HierSVA-B decomposes assertion quality into six metric axes: syntax correctness, assertion proof success rate, vacuity, specification faithfulness, mutation coverage, and formal core coverage. Applying HierSVA-B to twelve recent LLMs reveals three findings. First, the module-level compile rate is 67.1\%; among generated assertions in evaluable runs, 82.1\% prove non-vacuously, but the corresponding assertion sets detect only 70.2\% of eligible injected faults and cover 36.2\% of the formal core. Second, on 211 evaluable model–module entries in the deep subset, assertion sets flag buggy RTL with 0.87 recall, but 40\% of predicted-buggy outcomes are false positives on correct RTL, limiting precision to 0.60. Third, agentic mode improves S1-style provability and strength metrics, but gains plateau and oscillate. Codes and artifacts are available at \href{https://github.com/HierSVAAnon/HierSVACodeAndArtifacts}{https://github.com/HierSVAAnon/HierSVACodeAndArtifacts}. Dataset is available at \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/AnonymousHierSVA/HierSVA}{https://huggingface.co/datasets/AnonymousHierSVA/HierSVA}.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Cross-Domain Multi-Person Human Activity Recognition via Near-Field Wi-Fi Sensing

Wi-Fi-based human activity recognition (HAR) provides substantial convenience and has emerged as a thriving research field, yet the coarse spatial resolution inherent to Wi-Fi significantly hinders its ability to distinguish multiple subjects. By exploiting the near-field domination effect, establishing a dedicated sensing link for each subject through their personal Wi-Fi device offers a promising solution for multi-person HAR under native traffic. However, due to the subject-specific characteristics and irregular patterns of near-field signals, HAR neural network models require fine-tuning (FT) for cross-domain adaptation, which becomes particularly challenging with certain categories unavailable. In this paper, we propose WiAnchor, a novel training framework for efficient cross-domain adaptation in the presence of incomplete activity categories. This framework processes Wi-Fi signals embedded with irregular time information in three steps: during pre-training, we enlarge inter-class feature margins to enhance the separability of activities; in the FT stage, we innovate an anchor matching mechanism for cross-domain adaptation, filtering subject-specific interference informed by incomplete activity categories, rather than attempting to extract complete features from them; finally, the recognition of input samples is further improved based on their feature-level similarity with anchors. We construct a comprehensive dataset to thoroughly evaluate WiAnchor, achieving over 90% cross-domain accuracy with absent activity categories.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Emergent mirror symmetry in the optimization of the central-spin quantum battery

arXiv:2606.11557v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum batteries provide a useful setting for exploring nonequilibrium many-body effects in energy storage. Here we investigate the optimization of a quantum battery based on the central-spin model. We identify two complementary structural indicators associated with the effective charging dynamics: one yields an upper bound on the average charging power, while the other characterizes the buildup of stored energy. We show that these two indicators are jointly optimized at a distinguished initial charger excitation number, which selects a particular Dicke sector of the model. At this common optimal point, the effective charging Hamiltonian becomes exactly mirror symmetric, suggesting mirror symmetry as a useful structural indicator for optimizing quantum batteries. We further show that the corresponding optimal dynamics can be closely approximated by product initial states, in particular by spin coherent states whose excitation-number distribution is centered at the symmetry-selected point. Our results establish a direct connection between charging performance, optimal-state structure, and emergent symmetry in the central-spin quantum battery, and suggest symmetry as a useful organizing principle for efficient charging in interacting many-body quantum systems.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Generative-Model Predictive Planning for Navigation in Partially Observable Environments

arXiv:2606.18888v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Navigation in partially observable environments presents a significant challenge for autonomous agents, requiring effective decision-making with limited sensory information in unknown environments. Belief-based methods, particularly those using neural networks to approximate the belief space, often fail to capture the inherent multimodality of belief spaces, especially in high-dimensional cases with perceptual aliasing. While generative models present a compelling alternative, they typically require substantial data or expert demonstrations and lack explicit mechanisms for long-term planning. In this paper, we introduce BeliefDiffusion, a novel framework that combines the benefits of both generation and planning. BeliefDiffusion leverages diffusion models to explicitly characterize multimodal belief distributions and utilizes Model Predictive Control (MPC) to simultaneously plan ahead. It consists of two steps: (1) Imagining plausible environment configurations based on observation history and (2) Planning efficient navigation strategies across an aggregated configurations. Through extensive experiments in synthetic map environments, we demonstrate that BeliefDiffusion significantly outperforms both model-free reinforcement learning baselines and other generative approaches in navigation success rate and path efficiency. Our results validate that explicitly incorporating multimodal belief representations into planning enables more robust navigation in partially observable settings.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Semantic Robustness Certification for Vision-Language Models

Vision-language models (VLMs) are now widely used in downstream tasks. However, real-world applications often expose VLMs to distribution shifts induced by semantic variation (e.g., shape, size, and style). Robustness certification determines if a model's prediction changes when transformations are applied to its input. While most certification frameworks study geometric or pixel-level transformations over inputs, this work proposes a novel framework that enables certifying VLM robustness under semantic-level transformations. Leveraging the open-vocabulary capability of VLMs, we use text prompts as semantic proxies to construct transformations parameterized by an extent that controls the degree of semantic variation. By characterizing the VLM decision boundary in closed form, our framework quantitatively certifies extent intervals for which the predicted class remains unchanged under the semantic transformation. Our framework is the first to certify VLM robustness under semantic-level variations without requiring additional data for each variation, making it practical to apply. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our framework enables certifying robustness under diverse semantic variations across scenarios.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Probabilistic Salary Prediction with Graph Attention Networks and a Mixture Density Network

arXiv:2606.11663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate salary prediction is critical for bridging the information gap between employers and job seekers in modern labor markets. Existing approaches predominantly yield a single point estimate and treat job attributes such as location, occupation, and industry as independent categorical features, ignoring both the inherent uncertainty and multi-modality of real-world compensation data and the rich hierarchical and semantic-similarity relationships that govern pay norms. In this paper we propose GAT-MDN, a unified framework that addresses both limitations simultaneously. For each of the three attribute domains we construct a domain-specific graph whose edges encode (i) hierarchical parent-child containment and (ii) weighted similarity links derived from a pre-trained Sentence-Transformer. Parallel Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with edge-feature-aware attention learn rich, context-sensitive node representations from these multi-relational graphs. A priority-based hierarchical selection module then assembles a composite feature vector that gracefully handles missing or coarse attributes, and a Mixture Density Network (MDN) head maps this vector to the parameters of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), yielding a full conditional salary distribution. Extensive experiments on a real-world Dutch job-posting dataset of over 1 million records demonstrate that GAT-MDN significantly outperforms a non-graph MLP-MDN baseline in both Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

When Confidence Lacks Concepts: Interpretable OOD Detection via Representation Perturbations

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across medical imaging tasks, yet their tendency to overgeneralize under distributional shifts poses a major obstacle to safe clinical deployment. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection methods aim to mitigate this risk, but most existing approaches rely on opaque internal signals with poorly understood semantic meaning, limiting trust in safety-critical settings. In this work, we propose an interpretable OOD detection framework that probes the stability of model predictions under class-conditioned semantic perturbations. Leveraging sparse autoencoders (SAEs), we learn class-specific concept vectors from in-distribution data that disentangle dense intermediate representations into sparse, semantically meaningful components. At inference, we perturb deeper-layer representations using the concept vectors associated with the model's predicted class and measure the class logits stability. We hypothesize that in-distribution samples exhibit low sensitivity to such perturbations, as their representations align with class-specific semantic directions, whereas OOD samples show amplified deviations due to representational misalignment. By framing OOD detection as a concept conditioned stability analysis, our approach provides both a discriminative OOD signal and an interpretable lens into the internal mechanisms driving model uncertainty, making it particularly suitable for high stakes medical applications.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Machine-learning clustering of close-in exoplanet populations: links to pebble accretion

arXiv:2606.11737v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Close-in exoplanets exhibit a wide range of orbital architectures and physical properties shaped by both formation conditions and migration processes. Although population-synthesis models predict distinct planetary populations, establishing a quantitative connection between observed exoplanets and synthetic populations remains challenging. We investigate the intrinsic organisation of close-in exoplanets using physically motivated dynamical parameters and connect the resulting populations to pebble-accretion formation pathways. A two-stage Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to an observed sample of close-in exoplanets, performing unsupervised probabilistic clustering in a feature space dominated by dynamical descriptors of planet-star interactions. The resulting clusters are mapped onto a pebble-accretion synthetic population within a statistically motivated three-dimensional parameter space. Formation-related quantities, including gas availability, gas fraction, and ice-rock mass ratio, are then used to interpret the mapped populations. We identify statistically supported sub-populations without imposing predefined classification boundaries, including very-massive gas giants, hot giants, warm-Jupiter-dominated systems, and lower-mass giants. The mapped synthetic populations reveal systematic differences in formation timing, gas accretion, and solid growth histories. In particular, very-massive gas giants are preferentially associated with earlier formation epochs than hot-giant and warm-Jupiter-dominated populations. These results demonstrate that physically motivated machine-learning approaches can provide a statistically robust framework for linking observed exoplanet populations to theoretical planet formation pathways.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

HAMON: Passive Optical Sequence Mixing for Long-Horizon Forecasting

arXiv:2606.17028v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Simple linear and frequency-domain models remain surprisingly competitive in long-horizon time-series forecasting, and recent mechanistic evidence suggests that standard forecasting benchmarks may not require the dense superposed representations that make transformers powerful in other domains. This raises a substrate-level question: if the core forecasting operator is often low-complexity and approximately linear, does it need to be implemented as learned digital temporal mixing? We introduce HAMON, a passive diffractive optical forecasting core in which historical values are encoded onto an optical aperture, future positions are left dark, and cascaded trainable phase masks with free-space diffraction shape the forecast directly in the output field. At inference, prediction is performed by a single passive optical propagation pass with no trainable digital sequence-mixing layer. Across standard benchmarks, HAMON outperforms the strongest digital baselines considered on ETTm2 at all horizons and on ETTh2 at all but the longest horizon, improving MSE by up to 14\% and doing so consistently across horizons rather than at isolated points. It is competitive on Weather and trails the strongest baselines on the remaining ETT settings and on the high-channel-count Traffic and Electricity datasets. Phase encoding, intensity-compatible readout, and phase-scrambling ablations, together with a TorchOptics cross-simulator check, indicate that the forecasts arise from the data-bearing optical field rather than from a digital forecasting head. Because the passive core uses standard Fourier optics, HAMON defines a concrete target for optical hardware and for passive physical sequence mixing.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Automatic identification of diagnosis from hospital discharge letters via weakly supervised Natural Language Processing

Identifying patient diagnoses from hospital discharge letters is essential for large-scale cohort selection and epidemiological research, but traditional supervised approaches require extensive manual annotation, which is often impractical for large textual datasets. We present a weakly supervised Natural Language Processing (NLP) pipeline for classifying Italian discharge letters without document-level manual annotation. The method extracts diagnosis-related sentences, generates semantic embeddings using a transformer model further pre-trained on Italian medical documents, and applies a two-level clustering procedure to derive weak labels that are then used to train a document-level classifier. The approach was evaluated in a case study on bronchiolitis using 33,176 discharge letters of children admitted to 44 emergency rooms or hospitals in the Veneto Region, Italy, between 2017 and 2020. The best weakly supervised model achieved an AUROC of 77.68% ($\pm4.30\%$), an AUPRC of 73.13% ($\pm4.93\%$), and an F1-score of 78.14% ($\pm4.89\%$) against manually annotated data. Performance surpassed unsupervised baselines and approached fully supervised models, while reducing the need for manual annotation by more than 1,500 hours for a dataset of this size. Similar model rankings were observed in a secondary validation on a smaller bronchitis dataset (3,188 discharge letters, 2020-2025), where the best weakly supervised model achieved an AUPRC of 76.72% ($\pm 5.02\%$). These results suggest the potential of weakly supervised NLP methods for scalable disease identification from clinical discharge letters.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Geometric obstructions to Lipschitz transport between weighted Hessian $\mathrm{CD}(\kappa,\infty)$ manifolds

arXiv:2606.11085v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We construct a weighted Riemannian manifold $(\mathbb R^2,g,\mu)$ satisfying $\mathrm{CD}(1/2,\infty)$, the curvature-dimension condition, with the following property: if $\gamma$ denotes a centered Gaussian measure on $\mathbb R^2$, then there is no Lipschitz map $T:(\mathbb R^2,\|\cdot\|) \to (\mathbb R^2,g)$ satisfying $T_\#\gamma=\mu$. Building on this, we prove a Weyl-type asymptotic law for the eigenvalues of the weighted Laplacian $-\Delta_{g,\mu}$ and show that they are asymptotically negligible when compared to the eigenvalues of $-\Delta_{\gamma}$. These results give strong counterexamples to two questions of E. Milman and complement the recent counterexample of Aryan.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Towards Global AI-Driven Cervical Cancer Screening

The global elimination of cervical cancer is a key public health goal set by the World Health Organization (WHO), with screening programs reducing mortality by up to 80%. However, access to experts and biopsy services is limited in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs). Deep learning (DL)-based algorithms offer promising support for screening, but most existing approaches have been developed and validated on private datasets from single countries. We present the first DL-based approach to cervical cancer screening validated on data from multiple countries. Technically, we phrase the problem of detecting and classifying lesions in colposcopy images as a multi-task learning problem, in which we simultaneously perform image-level classification and lesion segmentation. Our model was trained on a private data set of acid stain colposcopy images with manually generated lesion segmentation masks and corresponding histopathological results, employing extensive data augmentation to address image variability. In an in-distribution validation with pathology results serving as ground truth, our algorithm outperformed medical experts (Balanced Accuracy: 0.68 vs 0.64) in CIN1- (Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or lower) versus CIN2+ (grade 2 or higher) classification. External validation on four colposcopy data sets from four countries featuring radical differences in prevalence and patient characteristics yielded superior performance of our method compared to baseline methods. Performance variability across countries was high with AUC values ranging from 0.54 - 0.80. Overall, algorithm performance varied with age, transformation zone (cervical area most prone to lesion development), presence of comorbidities and pathognomonic signs, with comorbidities having by far the largest negative effect. Future work should focus on improving model robustness and generalizability.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

LaTtE-Flow: Layerwise Timestep-Expert Flow-based Transformer

Recent advances in multimodal foundation models unifying image understanding and generation have opened exciting avenues for tackling a wide range of vision-language tasks within a single framework. Despite progress, existing unified models typically require extensive pretraining and struggle to achieve the same level of performance compared to models dedicated to each task. Additionally, many of these models suffer from slow image generation speeds, limiting their practical deployment in real-time or resource-constrained settings. In this work, we propose Layerwise Timestep-Expert Flow-based Transformer (LaTtE-Flow), a novel and efficient architecture that unifies image understanding and generation within a single multimodal model. LaTtE-Flow builds upon powerful pretrained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to inherit strong multimodal understanding capabilities, and extends them with a novel Layerwise Timestep Experts flow-based architecture for efficient image generation. LaTtE-Flow distributes the flow-matching process across specialized groups of Transformer layers, each responsible for a distinct subset of timesteps. This design significantly improves sampling efficiency by activating only a small subset of layers at each sampling timestep. To further enhance performance, we propose a Timestep-Conditioned Residual Attention mechanism for efficient information reuse across layers. Experiments demonstrate that LaTtE-Flow achieves strong performance on multimodal understanding tasks, while achieving competitive image generation quality with around 6x faster inference speed compared to recent unified multimodal models.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

arXiv:2602.22962v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size ($N$), dataset size ($D$), and compute budget ($C$). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10x reduces validation loss by up to 3.2x. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to more total training data yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Keep Policy Gradient in Charge: Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation for Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents

Long-horizon tool-use reinforcement learning can learn from outcome verification, but its trajectory-level advantage is broadcast across many reasoning, API, and answer tokens. Self-distillation promises a denser signal by reusing a policy's own rollouts or a privileged teacher. We show, however, that direct token-level self-distillation can silently destroy tool use: it rehearses teacher behavior without knowing which actions the verifier rewards, so useful skills and harmful shortcuts are amplified together. We introduce Sibling-Guided Credit Distillation (SGCD), which uses distillation for credit assignment rather than as a competing actor loss. Dynamic sampling produces mixed successful and failed sibling rollouts; an external LLM summarizes their contrast into a training-only stepwise credit reference; dense teacher/student divergence drives credit reassignment; and bounded detached credit weights reshape GRPO token advantages. The deployed student sees no external LLM, sibling evidence, or oracle. Across AppWorld and $\tau^3$-airline, SGCD improves over matched GRPO comparators: AppWorld TGC $42.9 \to 45.6$ on test_normal and $24.7 \to 27.0$ on test_challenge, and $\tau^3$-airline pass@1 $0.583 \to 0.602$.

23.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-01

A statistical framework for comparing epidemic forests

by Cyril Geismar, Peter J. White, Anne Cori, Thibaut Jombart Inferring who infected whom in an outbreak is essential for characterising transmission dynamics and guiding public health interventions. However, this task is challenging due to limited surveillance data and the complexity of immunological and social interactions. Instead of a single definitive transmission tree, epidemiologists often consider multiple plausible trees forming epidemic forests. Various inference methods and assumptions can yield different epidemic forests, yet no formal test exists to assess whether these differences are statistically significant. We propose such a framework using a chi-square test and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). We assessed each method’s ability to distinguish simulated epidemic forests generated under different offspring distributions. While both methods achieved perfect specificity for forests with 100+ trees, PERMANOVA consistently outperformed the chi-square test in sensitivity across all epidemic and forest sizes. Implemented in the R package mixtree, we provide the first statistical framework to robustly compare epidemic forests.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

A small noise approximation for Muller's Ratchet

arXiv:2606.15842v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider an infinite system of SDEs with Fleming-Viot noise indexed by $k=0,1,2,\dots$, whose parameters $\alpha,\lambda$, and $\nu$ are the (deleterious) selection coefficient, the (uni-directional) mutation rate, and a quantity which determines the size of the system's fluctuations. The SDE's unique weak solution $X(t) = (X_k(t))_{k=0,1,2,...}$ models what is known in population genetics as Muller's ratchet. Here, $X_k(t)$ stands for the frequency of individuals carrying $k$ deleterious mutations. Since the mutation process is uni-directional, $t\mapsto \inf\{k: X_k(t)> 0\}$ is non-decreasing for almost every path of $X$, and we refer to an increase as a click of Muller's ratchet. A long standing question concerns the clicking rate of Muller's ratchet. Using Duhamel's principle for semigroups, we give a partial answer by approximating $E(\sum_{k=1}^\infty kX_k(t) )$ and $E\big(X_0(t)\big)$ up to $O(1/\nu^2)$ for fixed $\alpha$, $\lambda$ and $t>0$. Our results suggest that $\psi:=\nu \alpha e^{-\lambda/\alpha}$ is a crucial quantity also when the mutation/selection ratio $\theta = \lambda/\alpha$ is moderately large: for large $\nu \alpha$, clicking of the ratchet on the time scale $\frac 1\alpha \log \theta$ becomes rare as soon as $\psi$ becomes large.

25.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-18

Ten simple rules for turning your qualifying exam into an NIH-style fellowship proposal: A guide for graduate students

by Courtney Peña-Lima, Cameron S. Bader, Brendan K. Ball, Troy C. Dildine, Mekhala V. Dissanayake, Iris van ‘t Erve, Albina Ibrayeva, Amy Nippert, M.K. Quinn, Chelse Spinner, Samuel Thompson, Antonio Tomasso, Crystal M. Botham Qualifying exams, often referred to as “quals” or candidacy exams, are an important milestone in doctoral programs. Although the style of quals varies greatly by program and institution, it is usually a proposal that requires students to develop research ideas as well as their scientific writing skills. Many quals are modeled after funding mechanisms that graduate students can apply to and on a topic that the student will pursue in their dissertation. This paper offers graduate students a step-by-step guide on how to turn their quals into a fellowship-style research proposal, using National Institutes of Health (NIH) mechanisms as a benchmark, as this is the norm within US research institutions. This paper will be most useful for students who have completed or are in the process of completing proposal-based qualifying exams, usually in the second year of a doctoral program.