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01.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22 DOI: HASH:c351e0f28a484f38beb54738684a7740

The impact of changes in age-based eligibility criteria on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in England between 2019 and 2024: A retrospective cohort study

作者:

Suffel↗A. M↗Walker↗Barry↗E. V↗Campbell↗C. N↗Lopez Bernal↗J. V↗McDonald↗S. L↗H. I↗…

Objectives: To examine changes in seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among clinical risk groups over periods of differing age-based eligibility. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Individuals in England registered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum. Participants: Between 1,239,802 (2019/20) and 1,289,330 (2023/24) individuals aged 40-69 years in clinical risk groups. Interventions: Natural experiment involving temporary expansion of age-based eligibility for influenza vaccination to include 50-64-year-olds from 2020/21 to 2022/23. Main outcome measures: Influenza vaccine uptake from 1st September to 28th February, incidence rate ratio (IRR) of vaccine uptake across consecutive seasons within age groups, and the ratio of IRRs between age groups. Results: Influenza vaccine uptake increased in all age groups in 2020/21 relative to 2019/20. The increase was larger in individuals aged 50-64 years (13.3%; IRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.50-1.51) compared with those aged 40-49 years (8.3%; IRR 1.35, 95% CI 1.34-1.35) and 65-69 years (6.8%; IRR 1.34, 95% CI 1.33-1.35). From 2020/21 to 2022/23, vaccine uptake decreased, with a more pronounced decline among those aged 40-49 years (-5.4%) compared with age-eligible groups (50-64 years: -3.0%; 65-69 years: -3.1%). The reversion of age eligibility in 2023/24 was associated with a larger decrease in uptake among those aged 50-64 years (-9.6% vs 2022/23; IRR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.79-0.79) compared with those aged 40-49 years (-4.9%; IRR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.87-0.88) and 65-69 years (-3.3%; IRR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.97). Patterns were broadly consistent across clinical risk groups. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic saw a general increase in seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in clinical risk groups. This increase was larger and more sustained in 50-64 year-olds who had also become eligible based on age. Our findings highlight the potential gains in vaccine coverage among clinical risk groups based on expanded age-based eligibility.

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02.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18465

What Does the Weight Norm Control in Grokking? Logit-Scale Mediation under Cross-Entropy

作者:

Truong Xuan Khanh↗

arXiv:2606.18465v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Grokking, the delayed jump from memorization to generalization, is usually tied to the weight norm: a smaller norm generalizes sooner. We ask what the norm actually controls. Holding the weight norm fixed by clamping and varying only an output temperature, we slide the grokking delay across its entire norm-induced range under cross-entropy; matching the effective logit scale back to baseline recovers about 85% of the delay at two moduli. Across a grid of norms and temperatures the delay collapses onto the logit scale alone (R2 = 0.97), with the norm adding 1-2% beyond it. The effect is loss-dependent: under mean-squared error the logit scale is pinned and the norm acts through a different route. A memorization control, a float64 softmax-collapse audit, and a no-LayerNorm transformer point to the same channel. Forking arms from one identical state, the delay follows the held norm value and not the clamp operation, which closes a rescaling-artifact concern. The proximal variable is the logit scale and the softmax saturation it drives; the weight norm is only an upstream handle. All numbers, tables, and figures reproduce from released code and data.

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03.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.13104

Authority, Truth, and Citation Bias: A Large-Scale Multi-Domain Benchmark for Studying Epistemic Susceptibility in Large Language Models

作者:

Aryan Khurana↗Aravind Ramana RN↗Dhruv Kumar↗

arXiv:2606.13104v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are increasingly deployed in citation-augmented settings, yet the effect of citation presence on model behavior independent of factual content remains poorly understood. We introduce AuthorityBench, a 220,564-prompt multi-domain benchmark that isolates how citation-based authority signals influence epistemic behavior in LLMs. The benchmark uses a fully balanced 2x2 factorial design crossing claim veracity with citation veracity, the first to do so, across four domains (general knowledge, science, law, and medicine), with controlled variation over 40 prompt templates, four venue prestige tiers, and a country-coded author name dataset. Evaluating seven models on 12 structured research questions, we find that citation presence, whether real or fabricated, consistently increases hallucination rates relative to a no-citation baseline. The effect is strongest when fabricated citations accompany true claims, raising hallucination rates by 3 to 22 percentage points and reaching 35 to 77% in the general knowledge domain, while legal claims are comparatively robust and venue prestige and author demographics show negligible impact. All datasets and evaluation code are available at: https://github.com/floating-reeds/AuthorityBench

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04.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.19507

The t-Split Two-Periodic Aztec Diamond Model

作者:

Meredith Shea↗

arXiv:2606.19507v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work we consider an Aztec diamond model split into two unequal regions which are asymptotically fixed in size. Each region is weighted with a distinct two-periodic weighting. We refer to this model as the t-split two-periodic Aztec diamond, to signify its difference from the previous work title Split Two-Periodic Aztec Diamond, where the model was split into two equal regions. We derive an integral expression for the correlation kernel of the model and give a partial description of the scaling limit behavior, along with a conjecture for the remainder. We refer to the larger and smaller sides of the model as the dominant and non-dominant sides, and to the location of the weight change as the interface. The dominant side exhibits a limit shape that depends only on its own weighting and is identical to that of the two-periodic Aztec diamond, while the non-dominant side appears to have a novel limit shape that depends on both weightings and the location of the interface. Lastly, we consider the complete limit shape in the case where the dominant side two-periodic parameter goes to 0.

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05.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18 DOI: HASH:044dfcf5f9e63b0a9fde64b658f103ac

MOSAIC: Methylation-Oriented Site Analysis and Information Classifier for Robust Epigenomic Classification of Acute Leukemia in Clinical Cohorts with Variable Tumor Purity

作者:

Shah↗Green↗Wainmann↗Karrs↗

DNA methylation-based classification offers a rapid diagnostic complement to conventional molecular workflows in acute leukemia. Existing classifiers are trained on array-derived reference cohorts whose construction favors specimens with adequate tumor content, leaving clinically relevant low-purity specimens underrepresented and classifier robustness in this regime uncharacterized. On held-out low-purity specimens, existing classifiers were concordant with expert pathology in only 7 of 10 (MARLIN) and 5 of 10 (ALMA) cases, motivating a classifier built to maintain accuracy at low tumor purity. We developed MOSAIC (Methylation-Oriented Site Analysis and Information Classifier), a neural network classifier built to maintain accuracy across the full range of tumor purities encountered in clinical practice. MOSAIC is a neural network trained on publicly available array-based methylation data augmented with native methylation calls from Oxford Nanopore sequencing. MOSAIC was evaluated on low-purity specimens held out entirely from training. On these held-out low-blast leukemia specimens, all below 25% blasts and including a case at 1.4%, MOSAIC was concordant with expert pathology in every case, recovering the correct subtype where diluted disease signal would otherwise be mistaken for normal or unrelated tissue. Gradient-based saliency analysis showed that the network relies on a partially distinct set of discriminative CpG probes when classifying low-blast specimens. MOSAIC demonstrates that augmenting training with clinically representative clinical specimens yields methylation-based leukemia classification that maintains effectiveness under the variable tumor purity of real clinical cohorts.

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06.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.18531

When Does Trajectory-Level Supervision Permit Efficient Offline Reinforcement Learning?

作者:

Xuanfei Ren↗Tengyang Xie↗

arXiv:2606.18531v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline reinforcement learning is typically analyzed under process-level reward supervision, yet many sequential decision datasets record only trajectory-level outcomes. We develop a statistical theory for offline policy optimization from such outcome-level supervision. We first study the canonical setting where the target remains the expected cumulative reward, but each offline trajectory provides only a scalar label whose conditional mean is the cumulative return. We propose OPAC, a pessimistic actor-critic algorithm that learns a latent reward model and optimizes a policy from trajectory-level labels. We prove a high-probability guarantee of order $\widetilde O(H^2\sqrt{C_{sa}(\pi^\star)/n})$ and a matching lower bound, characterizing the sharp statistical cost of replacing process-level rewards with one trajectory-level label. We then extend the principle to preference-based feedback, preserving the leading horizon and concentrability dependence up to preference-model constants. Finally, we study generalized outcome-based offline RL, where both the supervision and the objective are trajectory-level quantities induced by a nonlinear aggregation of latent per-step rewards. This problem is not learnable in general: for all-success objectives, any offline learner may require $\Omega(2^H)$ trajectories even with deterministic transitions and constant concentrability. We then identify a tractable regime through two structural coefficients, $\kappa_\mu(\sigma)$ and $\chi_\mu(\sigma)$, capturing information loss in outcome aggregation and generalized Bellman updates, under which generalized OPAC achieves polynomial sample complexity. Together, our results delineate when outcome-level supervision enables sample-efficient offline control and when missing process-level rewards create fundamental statistical barriers.

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07.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.13486

CRAFTIIF: Cross-Resolution Analytic Four-Type Interpretable Isolation Forest for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

作者:

William Smits↗

arXiv:2606.13486v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is challenged by four structurally distinct anomaly types – point (isolated spikes), distributional (level shifts), temporal (rhythm changes), and collective (inter-sensor correlation breakdowns) – each requiring different feature representations. Most unsupervised methods target only one or two types and provide limited interpretability. We present CRAFTIIF (Cross-Resolution Analytic Four-Type Interpretable Isolation Forest), a fully unsupervised framework targeting all four types without dataset-specific tuning. CRAFTIIF generates K=500 random analytic wavelet feature draws across four families (Morlet, DOG, Haar, Coiflet), each targeting a specific anomaly type, feeding five structured Isolation Forests – one per type plus a meta-IF for compound anomalies. An adaptive Otsu/MAD threshold calibrates detection automatically across anomaly rates from 0.1% to 69.2%. Because each IF is trained exclusively on type-specific features, branch firing provides direct anomaly-type attribution by construction, without post-hoc explanation. Evaluated on all 19 datasets of the mTSBench benchmark (Zhou et al., TMLR 2026), CRAFTIIF achieves mean F1=0.228 (all 19 datasets) and F1=0.322 (13 detectable datasets), ranking first among all 25 evaluated methods on VUS-PR (0.463 vs. previous best 0.329, +40.7%). A diagnostic framework – oracle F1, detectability limits, and branch separation ratios – identifies 6 of 19 datasets as fundamentally undetectable by any unsupervised method. Ablation over 11 conditions confirms adaptive thresholding (+38% F1), four-branch structure (+20%), and meta-IF (+23%) are each essential. Code: https://github.com/smitswil/craftiif

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08.

arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.20445

Space-time duality approach to (inhomogeneous) integrable quenches

作者:

Riccardo Travaglino↗Pasquale Calabrese↗Katja Klobas↗Bruno Bertini↗

arXiv:2606.20445v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Characterising the universal aspects of non-equilibrium quantum many-body dynamics is one of the key goals of this century's physics research. Progress, however, is hindered by the lack of general theoretical frameworks for studying interacting quantum matter far from equilibrium. A recent breakthrough has been the realization that several key non-equilibrium quantities, such as the rate of growth of entanglement or the fluctuations of conserved charges within finite subsystems, can be related to equilibrium properties through a space-time duality that effectively exchanges the roles of space and time. This observation effectively enables the study of non-equilibrium phenomena using tools and concepts borrowed from equilibrium statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. A first proof of principle of this framework, dubbed space-time duality approach (SDA), was provided by interacting integrable systems, where thermodynamic properties can often be characterized exactly, while dynamical quantities typically remain beyond analytical reach. Subsequent developments, however, revealed that the SDA suffered from an intrinsic ambiguity, restricting its applicability to homogeneous quenches and to charge fluctuations arising from symmetric initial states. Here we resolve this ambiguity from first principles and derive closed-form predictions for entanglement growth and charge fluctuations after general quantum quenches. We benchmark our results against the exact analytical solution of the Rule 54 quantum cellular automaton and extensive TEBD simulations of the XXZ chain. Moreover we show that, when specialised to the entanglement entropy, our framework naturally reproduces the predictions of the quasiparticle picture.

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09.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2406.09852

Asymptotic behavior of some strongly critical decomposable 3-type Galton–Watson processes with immigration

作者:

Matyas Barczy↗D\'aniel Bezd\'any↗

arXiv:2406.09852v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the asymptotic behavior of a critical decomposable 3-type Galton-Watson process with immigration when its offspring mean matrix is triangular with diagonal entries 1. It is proved that, under second or fourth order moment assumptions on the offspring and immigration distributions, a sequence of appropriately scaled random step processes formed from such a Galton-Watson process converges weakly. The limit process can be described using independent squared Bessel processes $({\mathcal X}_{t,1})_{t\geq0}$, $({\mathcal X}_{t,2})_{t\geq0}$, and $({\mathcal X}_{t,3})_{t\geq0}$, the linear combinations of the integral processes of $({\mathcal X}_{t,1})_{t\geq0}$ and $({\mathcal X}_{t,2})_{t\geq0}$, and possibly the 2-fold iterated integral process of $({\mathcal X}_{t,1})_{t\geq0}$. The presence of the 2-fold iterated integral process in the limit distribution is a new phenomenon in the description of asymptotic behavior of critical multi-type Galton-Watson processes with immigration. Our results complete and extend some results of Foster and Ney (1978) for some strongly critical decomposable 3-type Galton-Watson processes with immigration.

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10.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.11568

4DP-QA: Scalable QA for 4D Perception in Vision Language Models

作者:

Seokju Cho↗Abhishek Badki↗Hang Su↗Jindong Jiang↗Ziyao Zeng↗Seungryong Kim↗Sifei Liu↗Orazio Gallo↗

Despite recent advances, Vision Language Models (VLMs) still struggle to grasp the dynamics of the world. We note that the ability to reason about a 4D scene, challenging in itself, is further complicated by two factors. First, VLMs observe motion indirectly via its projection onto 2D images. Second, existing datasets fail to disentangle object and camera motion. To address these challenges, we present a QA generation pipeline that focuses on motion-related scene understanding. We take particular care of the entanglement of camera and object motion by casting tracking in both the traditional way and in a novel, fixed reference system, dubbed True-Motion Tracking, which provides an intuitive description of motion. From this pipeline, we generate a large-scale training dataset of 400K samples, 4DP-QA (4D Perception QA), and a 2.2K-sample benchmark, 4DP-QA-Bench. Training existing models on our dataset yields performance improvements on an external benchmark, validating the effectiveness of our method.

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11.

bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-10 DOI: HASH:f4e6e5d24beb2fbbe4de01fcb9a8665f

Bias-mitigated microbiome inference refines coronary artery disease signature

作者:

Honeybrook↗

Roughly half the cells in the human body are microbial, and changes in these communities are increasingly implicated in cardiovascular, metabolic, and oncological diseases. Yet identifying which taxa truly differ in abundance, differential abundance (DA), is distorted by four major sources of bias: loss of total microbial load, taxa measurement efficiencies, arbitrary pseudocounts required to handle pervasive zeros, and contamination which has recently driven retractions. No existing DA method accounts for all four. Here we introduce BootDA, a non-parametric bootstrap-based method that explicitly models each bias source without data transformations, pseudocounts, parametric assumptions, or assuming that most taxa are non-DA. In semi-parametric simulations preserving the sparsity (>70% zeros) and correlation structure of real 16S amplicon data, BootDA achieved the highest sensitivity among tested methods, including ANCOM-BC2, LinDA, MaAsLin 3, and Wilcoxon tests, while controlling the false discovery rate. Performance was retained in low biomass settings when contamination contributed ~50% of counts, and without negative controls, indicating de novo decontamination capability. Applied to a coronary artery disease cohort, BootDA refined the original signature to two co-enriched genera, Klebsiella and Gemmiger, and excluded likely contaminants. BootDA is available as an R package and could generalise to other sparse, high dimensional biological data.

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12.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18 DOI: arXiv:2606.19101

Structure Over Nonlinearity: Explicit Interaction Architectures for Dynamical Learning

作者:

Augusto Sarti↗

arXiv:2606.19101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Most learning architectures for dynamical systems rely on generic nonlinear function approximation, often requiring high model complexity to capture structured behaviors. In this work, we propose an alternative paradigm in which modeling capability arises primarily from structure rather than from expressive nonlinearities. We introduce a class of explicit structured dynamical units based on wave-inspired interaction structures with internal state. Inspired by wave-based computational principles, the proposed units adopt a strictly causal organization that eliminates algebraic loops, yielding fully explicit models that can be evaluated without implicit solvers. Stacking such units produces layered dynamical architectures with emergent hierarchical behavior. Through experiments on a nonlinear system identification task, we show that depth improves both representation quality and generalization, even under limited parameter optimization. In particular, the proposed architectures produce informative internal representations even under readout-only fitting, indicating that useful dynamical structure emerges from the organization of interactions prior to substantial parameter optimization. These results suggest that structure-first design provides a viable and effective alternative to conventional black-box approaches for learning dynamical systems, highlighting the role of interaction structure as a primary source of model expressivity.

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13.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2606.12418

Divination by Prompt: LLM-Mediated Xuanxue on Chinese Social Media

作者:

Chuang Li↗Lixuan Wang↗Yuqi Chen↗Ze Hong↗

arXiv:2606.12418v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The rapid proliferation of large language models (LLMs) has produced a striking cultural practice: using conversational AI for divination. This paper offers one of the first systematic studies of LLM-mediated divination in the context of Xuanxue, an internet-native umbrella term for mystical and spiritual practices on Chinese social media. Using a mixed-methods design, we analyze 23000+ posts and comments from Xiaohongshu and conduct 32 semi-structured interviews with users and professional diviners. Users primarily consult LLMs about pragmatic concerns - romantic relationships, careers, exams, and in-game gacha draws - via two intersecting pathways: trend-driven curiosity enabled by viral visibility and zero-cost access, and event-driven anxiety under conditions of uncertainty. A defining feature is collaborative prompt refinement, which turns users into active prompt engineers. Among commenters expressing a clear stance, perceived efficacy skews positive, with "accuracy" often justified through biographical fit and retrospective confirmation, consistent with Barnum and confirmation bias. Users also develop verification practices such as repeated trials and cross-model comparison. Professional diviners, by contrast, portray LLMs as lacking the "spiritual power" required for genuine divination, reflecting both ontological commitments and economic boundary-work. We also show how participants navigate tensions between scientific and metaphysical frames when interpreting AI-generated readings. Situating these findings in anthropological and cognitive-evolutionary theories of divination, we argue that LLM divination preserves core functions of traditional practice while introducing scalability, repeatability, and prompt-driven co-production that reshape how divinatory authority is constructed and evaluated.

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14.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.16411

Not all Jensen-Shannon Divergence Estimators are Equal

作者:

Alba Garrido↗Alejandro Almod\'ovar↗Mar Elizo↗Patricia A. Apell\'aniz↗Santiago Zazo↗Juan Parras↗

arXiv:2606.16411v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Jensen-Shannon divergence is widely reported as a scalar measure of fidelity for synthetic tabular data. Yet, in practice, it is estimated from finite samples using protocols that are often underspecified. This creates a measurement problem. Although the population divergence is well defined, the empirical value depends on the estimator family, sampling protocol, calibration, dimensionality, and class balance. We show that different protocols can yield non-comparable values: marginal-based estimators ignore dependencies in the joint distribution and can severely underestimate divergence, while classifier-based estimators capture joint structure but exhibit strong estimator dependence. We systematically study this behavior across controlled settings with reference divergences and real-world synthetic tabular benchmarks. Our analysis reveals dependence blindness in marginal estimators, prior-shift bias under class imbalance, and estimator sensitivity in high dimensions. To address prior shift, we derive a closed-form posterior correction for classifier-based Jensen-Shannon estimation. Our results show that empirical Jensen-Shannon divergence values are inherently protocol-dependent, making explicit specification of the estimation procedure necessary for meaningful comparison. We provide practical guidelines and an open-source tool for estimator-aware Jensen-Shannon evaluation.

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15.

medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22 DOI: HASH:e44e8a5407379304f0046260ce6c8b00

Age-related changes in acoustic cue use for speech-in-speech perception

作者:

Fish↗DiNino↗

Acoustic cues such as pitch and spatial location allow listeners to attend to a target speaker and ignore competing talkers, aiding speech recognition in background noise. Diminished ability to utilize acoustic cues for speech stream segregation may thus contribute to older adults' challenges hearing in noise. Adults aged 18-74 completed a speech-in-speech identification task with three conditions containing 1) only pitch cues (fundamental frequency), 2) only spatial cues (interaural time differences; ITDs), and 3) both pitch and spatial cues for segregating a target talker from competing talkers. Hearing thresholds at standard and extended high frequencies (EHFs), auditory brainstem responses (ABRs), and digit span scores were acquired to examine the influence of sensory and cognitive factors on use of each acoustic cue for speech-in-speech recognition. Significant differences were observed between cue condition scores indicating that use of the available cue(s) drove performance. ABR metrics were not a significant predictor but digit span scores significantly predicted scores on all three cue conditions. Working memory abilities therefore set a baseline for participants' speech-in-speech recognition regardless of the acoustic content. Hearing thresholds at standard frequencies significantly predicted scores on the Pitch condition. EHF hearing thresholds better predicted Spatial and Both Cue condition performance, suggesting that EHF thresholds represent auditory processing important for coding ITDs. Age group analysis revealed that older adults (aged 40+) performed significantly more poorly on all cue conditions of the speech-in-speech recognition task relative to younger adults. Age-related changes in auditory sensory processing may therefore impair older adults' speech-in-noise perception by reducing their ability to use acoustic cues for segregating target and competing speech.

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16.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2508.21380

The Algorithm Is Not the Behavior: Learned Priors Override Look-Ahead in a Chess-Playing Neural Network

作者:

Elias Sandmann↗Sebastian Lapuschkin↗Wojciech Samek↗

arXiv:2508.21380v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent mechanistic work has uncovered learned algorithms within neural networks, from modular arithmetic to search and planning in game-playing agents. But does algorithmic structure guarantee algorithmic behavior? We investigate this in Leela Chess Zero, the strongest neural chess engine, where prior work identified learned look-ahead. By extending the logit lens to its move-selecting policy network, we discover that correct puzzle solutions-including immediate checkmates-often appear in intermediate layers but are systematically overridden in the final output, a phenomenon we term "forgotten puzzles". Replicating prior analyses on these positions, we find that look-ahead operates normally-future moves of the correct continuation are represented, causally important, and linearly decodable-ruling out a failure of the algorithm itself. Instead, late layers increasingly shift toward prioritizing safe play over aggression. To test whether this shift drives the override, we steer the model against these preferences and recover 61.7% of forgotten puzzles, providing causal evidence that safety priors override algorithmically computed solutions. These findings demonstrate that algorithmic structure does not guarantee algorithmic behavior: a model can internally solve a problem and still output the wrong answer.

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17.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17 DOI: arXiv:2606.17530

Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing

作者:

Donghang Li↗Dingyi Zhuang↗Yunlin Li↗Chenan Shen↗Nina Cao↗Yunhan Zheng↗Shenhao Wang↗Jinhua Zhao↗

arXiv:2606.17530v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable.

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18.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.08530

GEAR-VLA: Learning Geometry-Aware Action Representations for Generalizable Robotic Manipulation

作者:

Yuan Zhang↗Shiqi Zhang↗Yedong Shen↗Shuai Dong↗Jiajun Deng↗Xin Zhang↗Yuxuan Gao↗Jiajia Wu↗Xin Nie↗Zhiyuan Cheng↗Jianmin Ji↗Yanyong Zhang↗…

arXiv:2606.08530v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models achieve strong benchmark performance but still struggle in real-world deployment with unseen objects, background shifts, and different robot embodiments. We argue that this stems from the lack of a unified geometry-aware manipulation representation, leaving existing VLAs vulnerable to low-level trajectory supervision, misaligned 3D features, and embodiment differences. To address this, we propose GEAR-VLA, a VLA framework for learning unified geometry-aware action representations for generalizable robotic manipulation. GEAR-VLA adopts coarse-to-fine action learning, where multi-source embodied pretraining equips the VLM with embodied reasoning and discrete action understanding before latent action tokens connect action semantics to a gradient-decoupled DiT continuous action expert. It further performs semantic-aligned 3D integration by aligning a trainable 3D spatial backbone with the VLA representation while freezing the original VLM-aligned visual pathway. To share this representation across robots, GEAR-VLA uses embodiment canonicalization, where embodiment-aware states and embodiment-invariant actions confine robot differences to the low-level interface. Extensive simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate strong generalization: GEAR-VLA achieves state-of-the-art performance on LIBERO, zero-shot LIBERO-Plus, and RoboTwin 2.0, reaches 85.9% success on AgileX and 81.0% on the pretraining-unseen LDT-01 embodiment, and obtains 90.1% success on a 6,360-trial universal grasping benchmark with 212 unseen objects. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/babynabeauty/GEAR-VLA.

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19.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.16447

Training and Evaluating Diffusion Policies with Long Context Lengths

作者:

Abhinav Agarwal↗Adam Wei↗Taylan Kargin↗Michael Zeng↗Cole Becker↗Arif Kerem Dayi↗Pablo Parrilo↗Asuman Ozdaglar↗Russ Tedrake↗

arXiv:2606.16447v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Imitation learning has enabled highly-dexterous robotic manipulation from RGB observations. Policies trained with these methods, however, typically condition robot actions on only a short history of observations. These policies cannot solve tasks that require memory and can get stuck repeatedly executing the same failing motions. In this work, we first benchmark policy performance as context length is incrementally increased from short to long, across a spectrum of tasks with varying local stability and memory requirements, and in multiple data regimes. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate context length in imitation learning at this level of detail. Our results challenge prior claims: naively scaling context length is not as brittle as advertised in literature. With an appropriate conditioning method and denoising backbone (UNet+Cross-Attention), single-task policies achieve high success rates on many tasks in the usual data regime even with naive scaling. Next, we propose a training algorithm to jointly train policies at multiple context lengths, further reducing the sample complexity of long-context learning. Finally, we apply our findings to re-evaluate some previously proposed solutions to long-context imitation learning.

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20.

arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2602.00343

Standardized Methods and Recommendations for Green Federated Learning

作者:

Austin Tapp↗Holger R. Roth↗Ziyue Xu↗Abhijeet Parida↗Hareem Nisar↗Marius George Linguraru↗

arXiv:2602.00343v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training over privacy-sensitive, distributed data, but its environmental impact is difficult to compare across studies due to inconsistent measurement boundaries and heterogeneous reporting. We present a practical carbon-accounting methodology for FL CO2e tracking using NVIDIA NVFlare and CodeCarbon for explicit, phase-aware tasks (initialization, per-round training, evaluation, and idle/coordination). To capture non-compute effects, we additionally estimate communication emissions from transmitted model-update sizes under a network-configurable energy model. We validate the proposed approach on two representative workloads: CIFAR-10 image classification and retinal optic disk segmentation. In CIFAR-10, controlled client-efficiency scenarios show that system-level slowdowns and coordination effects can contribute meaningfully to carbon footprint under an otherwise fixed FL protocol, increasing total CO2e by 8.34x (medium) and 21.73x (low) relative to the high-efficiency baseline. In retinal segmentation, swapping GPU tiers (H100 vs.\ V100) yields a consistent 1.7x runtime gap (290 vs. 503 minutes) while producing non-uniform changes in total energy and CO2e across sites, underscoring the need for per-site and per-round reporting. Overall, our results support a standardized carbon accounting method that acts as a prerequisite for reproducible 'green' FL evaluation. Our code is available at https://github.com/Pediatric-Accelerated-Intelligence-Lab/carbon_footprint.

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21.

arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.15203

The existence of invariant sublinear expectations for $G$-SDEs

作者:

Danyang Zhao↗Huaizhong Zhao↗

arXiv:2606.15203v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we study the existence of invariant sublinear expectations of Markovian semigroups on sublinear expectation spaces. To achieve this, we establish a complete metric space of sublinear expectations, on which we extend Harris' method to the nonlinear setting on the convergence of sublinear semigroups. We then explore two cases of $G-$diffusions by studying the Lyapunov function and the local Doeblin condition. One is the $G-$Brownian motion on the unit circle which is the case studied in Feng and Zhao [Zhaonon], but with the new method. Another is the multidimensional $G-$SDEs on the whole space $\mathbb{R}^d$. We establish, for the first time in the literature, the existence of the invariant sublinear expectation for $G-$SDEs under the non-degenerate and weakly dissipative assumption. For this, we prove that for a class of $G-$SDEs, the $G-$expectation can be represented as the supremum of the semigroup of a family of SDEs, of which the regularity is obtained by considering the Bismut-Elworthy-Li formula and the Denis-Hu-Peng representation for the distribution of $G-$Brownian motions.

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22.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12 DOI: arXiv:2603.17527

Mirror Descent on Riemannian Manifolds

作者:

Jiaxin Jiang↗Lei Shi↗Jiyuan Tan↗

arXiv:2603.17527v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mirror Descent (MD) is a scalable first-order method widely used in large-scale optimization, with applications in image processing, policy optimization, and neural network training. This paper generalizes MD to optimization on Riemannian manifolds. In particular, we develop a Riemannian Mirror Descent (RMD) framework via reparameterization and further propose a stochastic variant of RMD. We also establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for both RMD and stochastic RMD. As an application to the Stiefel manifold, our RMD framework reduces to the Curvilinear Gradient Descent (CGD) method proposed in [26]. Moreover, when specializing the stochastic RMD framework to the Stiefel setting, we obtain a stochastic extension of CGD, which effectively addresses large-scale manifold optimization problems.

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23.

arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16 DOI: arXiv:2606.14716

RAMS: Resource-Adaptive and Detection-Conditioned Model Switching for Embedded Edge Perception

作者:

Kushal Khemani↗Evan Leri↗George Xu↗Amit Hod↗

Edge object detection on embedded hardware requires balancing inference latency and detection quality under changing resource pressure. We present RAMS, a lightweight runtime controller that monitors device pressure, calibrates switching thresholds from idle behavior, and dynamically selects among three resident YOLOv8 tiers (NANO/SMALL/MEDIUM at 320/416/640 px) without model-reload latency. RAMS defines five switching policies, including two detection-conditioned variants that prevent aggressive downgrades after recent vulnerable-road-user (VRU) detections. We further introduce the VRU-Weighted Accuracy Score (SWAS), a scalar metric for offline policy comparison without ground-truth annotations, together with an oracle-bounded variant that separates detector circularity from genuine tier-retention benefit. Across Raspberry Pi 5, x86 laptops, and Jetson Orin ONNX/TensorRT deployments, the same controller equations operate over a 37x latency range. On Jetson Orin TensorRT under heavy load, the safety2 policy achieves 3.41 ms mean latency, 5.6x faster than fixed-MEDIUM inference, while retaining 74% of its proxy accuracy through near-NANO operation with selective SMALL and MEDIUM locks during VRU-positive windows. Detection-conditioned switching improves SWAS by 25.4% under oracle scoring and 47.3% under detector-derived scoring relative to threshold-only policies under heavy load. Live KITTI evaluation reports per-tier VRU recall of 24.2%, 41.2%, and 59.0%, showing that reactive overrides are fundamentally limited by baseline detector recall.

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24.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19 DOI: arXiv:2606.20364

Judging to Improve: A De-biased VLM-as-3D-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Generation

作者:

Ali Asaria↗Tony Salomone↗Deep Gandhi↗

arXiv:2606.20364v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A companion study established a de-biased, cross-model VLM-as-3D-judge that reliably ranks single-image-to-3D mesh quality where cheap geometry and CLIP proxies fall short. This paper asks: can that judge's preferences specialize a strong open generator, TRELLIS, on one asset class (furniture), cheaply and without human labels? Taking the judge from ranking to optimization is where the work lives. Pushing a VLM judge into the training and evaluation loop exposes failure modes ranking never triggered, so our contribution is an optimization-grade hardening of the judge: a training judge (Qwen2.5-VL-7B) held distinct from an evaluation judge (InternVL3-8B) to break circularity; position-bias correction; and fixes for three failure modes (image overload, geometry-hiding splat renders, and reference-free judging that rewards clean-but-wrong outputs), with calibration evidence (clear-gap win-rate 0.83-1.0; base-vs-base ~0.5). Using this protocol as an independent evaluator, and working only from public models and data with lightweight parameter-efficient adaptation, we find our methods match the strong base rather than exceed it. Independent base samples carry essentially no learnable preference (0.94 order-flip rate), so signal must be engineered by quality-contrastive construction. Across six adaptation methods, two input regimes, and a severity sweep, the most targeted - conditioner repair under severe degradation - reaches parity (0.50) with the base, while no method clears the >=65% win-rate target. The result is mechanistic: clean inputs saturate the judge, flow-DIT fine-tuning washes out through the sampler, and conditioning repair is the locus that moves geometry. Win-rates are directional at n=8 objects. Matching a strong public-data base with cheap adaptation is itself informative: exceeding it needs more than lightweight PEFT on public data, and the judge protocol is reusable.

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25.

arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11 DOI: arXiv:2606.09744

Learning Dynamics Reveal a Hierarchy of Weight-Induced Layerwise Gram Metrics

作者:

Claudio Nordio↗

arXiv:2606.09744v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study feed-forward ReLU networks with fixed readout and quadratic loss. The aim is to rewrite gradient descent not primarily as a dynamics in weight space, but as a collective dynamics closed in terms of fields defined on the training-set space. For a single hidden layer, the weight variables can be eliminated from the activation dynamics, yielding a closed equation for the residuals governed by a collective kernel that factorizes into an input-geometric matrix and a dynamical co-activation matrix. For deeper networks, the residual dynamics retains a clean layer-wise kernel structure. However, from depth three onward, closure requires a hierarchy of weight-induced Gram operators that mediate information transport across layers. Moreover, the conjugate-field dynamics is governed by operators satisfying a backward pullback recursion, of which the weight-induced Gram operators are the first nontrivial instances.

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