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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Dense Supervision Is Not Enough: The Readout Blind Spot in Looped Language Models

arXiv:2606.24898v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Looped language models turn hidden states into runtime state: each state is decoded for prediction and fed back into future computation. This creates a basic supervision question: which state variables does cross-entropy actually control? We show that dense per-loop cross-entropy controls the variables exposed by the readout, not every variable active in the recurrent transition. Hidden-state scale gives a concrete failure mode. Scale-invariant readouts such as RMSNorm and LayerNorm hide radial scale from the immediate cross-entropy loss, while pre-norm residual recurrence continues to carry and update that same scale. Thus per-loop loss can make early exits usable without controlling recurrent scale. In 44M and 129M looped transformers without inter-loop normalization, per-loop cross-entropy through RMSNorm readouts still drives final hidden-state norms into the thousands or tens of thousands. Scale-visible readouts and explicit norm penalties keep norms in the tens, and scale-removing recurrence is the complementary architectural fix. The resulting design rule is simple: dense supervision trains exits; recurrent scale control requires either making scale visible to a loss or removing it from the loop. Consistent with this rule, scale-controlled variants achieve lower perplexity at matched inference-depth operating points in our variable-depth benchmarks.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Identifiability Without Gaussianity: Symbolic World Models and Near-Infinite Temporal Consistency

Klindt, LeCun, and Balestriero (arXiv:2605.26379) proved that Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) achieve linear identifiability, the linear recovery of the world's true latent variables, if and only if the world's latent dynamics follow a Gaussian, stationary process. This Gaussian boundary implies a fundamental limit on temporal consistency: for any non-Gaussian physical system, the representation error of a statistical World Model grows monotonically with time. We prove that this limit is an artifact of the statistical alignment mechanism, not a property of World Models in general. We introduce the Physics-Grounded Symbolic Architecture (PGSA) and prove three results: (1) a PGSA achieves exact linear identifiability for all physical regimes, regardless of the latent distribution; (2) the per-step error of a PGSA is bounded by numerical precision alone; and (3) as a direct consequence, a PGSA maintains temporal consistency for an unbounded number of transitions, a property we term near-infinite temporal consistency. We further prove that statistical World Models cannot achieve this property for any non-Gaussian system, regardless of model capacity or the volume of training data. The algebraic cores of four of the theorems are formalized in Lean 4 with Mathlib4 v4.31.0 (zero sorry placeholders); the Klindt et al. converse is taken as an external premise. The contrast establishes that symbolic grounding in the causal generator of the world's dynamics is the sufficient condition and, in non-Gaussian regimes, the only condition for near-infinite temporal consistency.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Long-read sequencing enables high-accuracy mitochondrial heteroplasmy detection in Parkinson's disease

Background: Low-frequency heteroplasmic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants are associated with aging and neurological diseases, including Parkinson's disease (PD). Targeted deep mtDNA sequencing using PacBio HiFi long reads has the potential to resolve heteroplasmy across the full mitochondrial genome with high accuracy. Methods: To validate Vega PacBio sequencing for detecting mtDNA heteroplasmy, we analyzed four predefined mixtures of two mtDNA haplotypes. We generated a single long-range PCR amplicon covering the entire mitochondrial genome. These amplicons were mixed at predefined ratios (minor mixture haplotype component: 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.1%). Variant calling was performed using Mutserve2, and accuracy was assessed by calculating the F1 score from comparisons between expected and detected variants. Full-length mtDNA PacBio sequencing was applied to investigate heteroplasmy across fibroblast passages derived from five LRRK2 p.Gly2019Ser variant carriers (n=3 affected with PD and n=2 unaffected carriers). Changes in mtDNA heteroplasmy level and variant load were assessed longitudinally using a linear mixed model. Results: The single-amplicon approach enabled full-length haplotype resolution without amplification bias associated with overlapping PCR strategies. The F1 score of the predefined mixtures was 1.0 for heteroplasmy levels between 5% and 1% and remained high (0.91) at 0.1%. We detected n=10/62 variants discordant with the Illumina reference at the 0.1% mixture, but sensitivity remained very high at 1.00 in that mixture. Detected minor variants closely matched expected heteroplasmy levels, with average variant levels of 0.057 (5%), 0.022 (2%), 0.011 (1%), and 0.001 (0.1%). Across twelve fibroblast passages, we observed fewer mtDNA heteroplasmic variants ({beta}=-3.2, p=0.026). Increased heteroplasmic variant load over time was also associated with older age ({beta}=1.50, p=0.001) and PD affection status ({beta}=5.0, p=1.0 x 10-4) in LRRK2 variant carriers. Notably, we observed distinct patterns of heteroplasmic variants that either increased or decreased in heteroplasmy level across passages. Conclusion: PacBio HiFi sequencing, combined with a single-amplicon strategy, enables accurate full-length mtDNA heteroplasmy detection and longitudinal analysis, providing a valuable tool for studying mitochondrial variation and dynamics in disease.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Model-based Detection of Spatial Disease Boundaries Using Amortized Bayesian Inference

Disease boundary analysis identifies abrupt changes in health outcomes across geographic boundaries, guiding targeted public health interventions and outbreak surveillance. Current implementations often adopt a Bayesian "wombling" approach and largely rely on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior sampling, presenting scalability issues for large-scale disease surveillance. We leverage amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) to accelerate the detection of spatial health disparities between neighboring US counties by embedding neural posterior estimation within a Bayesian areal wombling framework. Exploiting the computational efficiency of ABI, we further introduce the Residual Disparity Elimination Target, a metric for the required reduction in mortality or prevalence for a region to eliminate a significant disparity with its neighbor. We analyze tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer mortality rates across mainland US counties and achieve results concordant with MCMC analysis while scaling areal wombling to hundreds of outcomes and translating disparity detection into interpretable policy objectives.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

What Do Language Priors Contribute to Darcy-Flow Inversion? A Mechanistic Audit

arXiv:2606.24967v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In ill-posed inverse problems, the recovered solution depends as much on the prior as on the data, yet much of the engineering knowledge that could serve as that prior is recorded qualitatively rather than in formal mathematical form. Here we test whether sentence embeddings can act as an inference-time interface for injecting geological descriptions into a learned Darcy-flow inverse solver. Across six synthetic geological classes and an exploratory transfer to a benchmark reservoir model (SPE10), we vary only the conditioning representation and find that text conditioning reduces reconstruction error by 81 % relative to a no-text counterfactual. Most of this gain comes from a categorical, class-level constraint whose value concentrates where the hydraulic head leaves the conductivity field underdetermined, while within-class geometric detail is secondary and pattern-dependent. Compared with a discrete class label, sentence embeddings add little dense-observation accuracy but improve training stability and enable paraphrase-based sensitivity analysis and open-vocabulary inputs. These results show that language priors can serve as an engineering-informatics interface for injecting geological knowledge into learned inverse solvers, while clarifying when they help and what signal they actually carry.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

A theory of learning data statistics in diffusion models, from easy to hard

arXiv:2603.12901v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While diffusion models have emerged as a powerful class of generative models, their learning dynamics remain poorly understood. We address this issue first by empirically showing that standard diffusion models trained on natural images exhibit a distributional simplicity bias, learning simple, pair-wise input statistics before specializing to higher-order correlations. We reproduce this behaviour in simple denoisers trained on a minimal data model, the mixed cumulant model, where we precisely control both pair-wise and higher-order correlations of the inputs. We identify a scalar invariant of the model that governs the sample complexity of learning pair-wise and higher-order correlations that we call the diffusion information exponent, in analogy to related invariants in different learning paradigms. Using this invariant, we prove that the denoiser learns simple, pair-wise statistics of the inputs at linear sample complexity, while more complex higher-order statistics, such as the fourth cumulant, require at least cubic sample complexity. We also prove that the sample complexity of learning the fourth cumulant is linear if pair-wise and higher-order statistics share a correlated latent structure. Our work describes a key mechanism for how diffusion models can learn distributions of increasing complexity.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

SEMIR: Topology-Preserving Graph Minors for Thin-Structure Segmentation

Thin-structure segmentation–power lines, cracks, lane markings at 1-3 pixel width–requires preserving connectivity that standard representations preclude: patching severs continuous structures and conventional superpixels merge thin targets into background before classification. Topology-aware losses penalize connectivity breaks at the objective level but cannot recover what the representation has already destroyed. We propose SEMIR, a framework that replaces the pixel lattice with a parameterized graph minor whose contraction map preserves thin-structure connectivity under the contraction criterion. The minor collapses millions of pixels into tens or hundreds of boundary-aligned supernodes, enabling full-resolution inference without patching at scales demonstrated up to 21 MP in this paper; a lightweight GNN classifies the reduced graph and an exact map lifts predictions to pixel resolution. One pipeline–identical architecture, features, loss, and GNN hyperparameters across all dataset–matches or exceeds domain-specific baselines on TTPLA (power lines), CrackSeg9k (pavement cracks), and SkyScapes Lane (aerial markings) on Dice, IoU, and Boundary F1 while reducing mask fragmentation by at least 4.6x relative to SLIC at matched inference.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Intrapartum Oxytocin and Maternal Outcomes Following Vaginal and Unscheduled Cesarean Delivery

Objective To examine whether intrapartum synthetic oxytocin exposure for labor induction or augmentation is associated with breastfeeding and postpartum depressive and traumatic stress symptoms. Methods We studied 1,296 postpartum women who delivered at a single tertiary care center, with assessments from the third trimester through approximately two months postpartum. Intrapartum oxytocin exposure was obtained from electronic medical records. Outcomes included exclusive breastfeeding, postpartum depression, and childbirth-related traumatic stress. Analyses were stratified by delivery mode and adjusted for key maternal and obstetric covariates. Results Overall, 63.3% of participants received intrapartum oxytocin. Among participants with vaginal delivery, oxytocin exposure was associated with lower exclusive breastfeeding at two months after adjustment (58.2% vs 70.3%; adjusted RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.76- 0.97; p = 0.02), but not with postpartum mental health outcomes. Among participants with unscheduled cesarean delivery, oxytocin exposure was independently associated with higher immediate postpartum depressive symptoms (F = 4.97, p = 0.03), acute childbirth-related stress (F = 4.56, p = 0.03), and two-month childbirth-related posttraumatic stress symptoms (F = 4.30, p = 0.04), but not two-month depressive symptoms. Conclusion Intrapartum oxytocin exposure was associated with lower exclusive breastfeeding after vaginal delivery and modestly higher childbirth-related distress after unscheduled cesarean delivery. These findings suggest that oxytocin exposure may mark or contribute to postpartum vulnerability in specific delivery contexts.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Comparing Commercial Depth Sensor Accuracy for Medical Applications

Depth estimation has numerous medical and surgical applications. We benchmark four depth sensors on a porcine bone specimen, a porcine belly specimen, and a silicone kidney phantom using stylus-sampled references. These objects contain several real-world challenges, including homogeneous surfaces, specular surfaces, and subsurface scattering. The comparison includes stereo, structured-light, and time-of-flight sensors at a distance of approximately 50 cm. Specifically, the Intel RealSense D405 (Intel RealSense, United States), PMD Flexx2 (pmdtechnologies, Germany), Stereolabs ZED 2i (Stereolabs, France), and Zivid 2M+ 60 (Zivid, Norway) are compared. The Zivid 2M+ 60 performed best across all objects and metrics considered in this work. The ZED ranked second for real tissue, but last on the phantom.

10.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

A Deep Hypergraph Learning Model for Predicting Antimicrobial Combination Effects Across Bacterial Targets

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) creates an urgent need for efficient strategies to identify effective antibacterial combinations. Combination therapy, including antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) paired with conventional antibiotics, is a promising approach, but exhaustive experimental screening across drug pairs and bacterial targets is impractical. This study introduces a hybrid GCN-based hypergraph neural network (HGNN) for predicting antimicrobial-agent combination outcomes against bacterial targets. Each antimicrobial-agent-antimicrobial-agent-bacterium triplet is represented as a ternary hyperedge, enabling the model to learn context-dependent interaction patterns. The framework integrates SMILES-derived molecular graph embeddings for antimicrobial agents, including conventional antibiotics and AMPs, with taxonomy-derived bacterial representations. The prediction task was formulated as a three-class classification problem: synergy, antagonism, and non-interaction. The non-interaction class included experimentally verified indifferent records and synthetic presumed non-interaction triplets generated by negative sampling. Model development used drug-pair-grouped splitting, five-fold grouped cross-validation within the training/validation partition, and final evaluation on a held-out test set. On the held-out three-class test set, the selected GCN-based HGNN achieved an accuracy of 0.83, weighted F1-score of 0.84, macro F1-score of 0.80, and ROC-AUC of 0.95. Per-class evaluation showed accuracies of 0.80 for synergy, 0.92 for antagonism, and 0.85 for non-interaction. Pair-type analysis showed strong performance across AMP-AMP, AMP-conventional antibiotic, and conventional antibiotic-conventional antibiotic combinations. These findings suggest that hypergraph-based representation learning can support computational prioritization of antimicrobial combinations for experimental follow-up. Further studies will be needed to improve model interpretability and to perform prospective validation of predicted synergistic combinations.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Charge-Conjugation Violation and Population Asymmetry in Bipartite Fermionic Lattices

arXiv:2606.06138v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Charge conjugation violation (CCV) is a central concept in particle physics and appears also for quasiparticles in quantum many-body systems, which typically relies on an embedded external symmetry breaking to the underlying system. An open question is how an intrinsic CCV mechanism could emerge and what its macroscopic consequences would be. We establish sublattice kinks in bipartite fermionic lattices as a concrete setup showing intrinsic CCV. The intrinsic CCV of the sublattice kink is based on the graph-topological nature of the underlying Hamiltonian, with no explicit symmetry breaking taking place. It leads to a population asymmetry of different configurations and imprints a hidden leaf-like structure in the eigenenergy spectrum. The population asymmetry also leads to an imbalanced sublattice-kink production triggered by the vacuum-instability in the quench dynamics. Our work demonstrates the graph topology as the microscopic origin of intrinsic CCV, with the population asymmetry as the macroscopic consequence, of which the proposed setup is highly amenable to experimental implementation via cold-atom quantum simulators.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

SPDA-SAM: A Self-prompted Depth-Aware Segment Anything Model for Instance Segmentation

Recently, Segment Anything Model (SAM) has demonstrated strong generalizability in various instance segmentation tasks. However, its performance is severely dependent on the quality of manual prompts. In addition, the RGB images that instance segmentation methods normally use inherently lack depth information. As a result, the ability of these methods to perceive spatial structures and delineate object boundaries is hindered. To address these challenges, we propose a Self-prompted Depth-Aware SAM (SPDA-SAM) for instance segmentation. Specifically, we design a Semantic-Spatial Self-prompt Module (SSSPM) which extracts the semantic and spatial prompts from the image encoder and the mask decoder of SAM, respectively. Furthermore, we introduce a Coarse-to-Fine RGB-D Fusion Module (C2FFM), in which the features extracted from a monocular RGB image and the depth map estimated from it are fused. In particular, the structural information in the depth map is used to provide coarse-grained guidance to feature fusion, while local variations in depth are encoded in order to fuse fine-grained feature representations. To our knowledge, SAM has not been explored in such self-prompted and depth-aware manners. Experimental results demonstrate that our SPDA-SAM outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts across twelve different data sets. These promising results should be due to the guidance of the self-prompts and the compensation for the spatial information loss by the coarse-to-fine RGB-D fusion operation.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

CoCoSI: Collaborative Cognitive Map Construction for Spatial Intelligence

Spatial intelligence is a key frontier for multimodal large language models (MLLMs), enabling them to reason about the physical world from visual experience. Inspired by human spatial cognition, recent approaches construct grid-based cognitive maps from multi-frame visual inputs to maintain coherent spatial representations over time. However, limited context lengths still challenge spatial understanding, while existing methods, such as long-context modeling and external memory, often require architectural changes, memory modules, or finetuning, limiting their applicability to off-the-shelf pretrained MLLMs. This motivates a lightweight, model-agnostic method for preserving spatial information beyond the native context window. To this end, we propose a plug-and-play multi-agent framework that collaboratively constructs cognitive maps as structured spatial memory, enhancing the spatial understanding of arbitrary pretrained MLLMs without architectural modification or additional training. Our framework features local-global agent coordination, cognitive map construction with atomic commits, and cross-agent verification. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance on spatial understanding tasks while remaining fully training-free. Code will be released.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Physics-Driven Spatiotemporal Modeling for AI-Generated Video Detection

AI-generated videos have achieved near-perfect visual realism (e.g., Sora), urgently necessitating reliable detection mechanisms. However, detecting such videos faces significant challenges in modeling high-dimensional spatiotemporal dynamics and identifying subtle anomalies that violate physical laws. In this paper, we propose the first physics-driven AI-generated video detection paradigm based on probability flow conservation principles. Specifically, we propose a statistic called Normalized Spatiotemporal Gradient (NSG), which quantifies the ratio of spatial probability gradients to temporal density changes, explicitly capturing deviations from natural video dynamics. Leveraging pre-trained diffusion models, we develop an NSG estimator through spatial gradients approximation and motion-aware temporal modeling without complex motion decomposition while preserving physical constraints. Building on this, we propose an NSG-based video detection method (NSG-VD) that computes the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between NSG features of the test and real videos as a detection metric. Last, we derive an upper bound of NSG feature distances between real and generated videos, proving that generated videos exhibit amplified discrepancies due to distributional shifts. Extensive experiments confirm that NSG-VD outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 16.00% in Recall and 10.75% in F1-Score, validating the superior performance of NSG-VD. The source code is available at https://github.com/ZSHsh98/NSG-VD.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Ensembles of Large Language Models for Identifying EQ-5D Studies in PubMed Based on Their Abstracts

The rapid increase in scientific publications leads to the fact that manual study screening in systematic literature reviews (SLRs) is increasingly resource consuming, inefficient, and inconsistent. Classifying studies that clearly report health-related quality-of-life results, such as EQ-5D data, requires a high level of clinical interpretation and poses challenges for human reviewers. This study investigates the use of Google's Gemini and Gemma large language models (LLMs) in automating EQ-5D detection in the PubMed biomedical database based only on published abstracts. A multi-phase framework is proposed that integrates few-shot prompting, weight ensembling aggregation, and a soft stacking meta-classifier. Nine LLMs are evaluated on a dataset of PubMed studies manually labeled by two experts regarding EQ-5D reporting. The weighted ensemble of gemini-2.5-pro, gemma-3-12b, and gemma-3-27b obtained a 0.74 weighted F1-score and 0.74 accuracy, exceeding individually attained results. The ensembling of top-performing models improved the balance between precision and recall compared to individual models, while the soft stacking approach provided greater reliability and interpretability. Feature analysis shows that the probability results from the models are important in guiding the final predictions. The findings suggest that an ensemble-based LLM setup is a reliable and scalable approach for automating screening in biomedical research.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Spin disorder competing with positional symmetry breaking governs the metal-insulator behavior in oxide paramagnets

arXiv:2606.14624v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Numerous transition-metal oxides have low-temperature antiferromagnetic (AFM) states and high-temperature paramagnetic (PM) phases, where the AFM state is usually insulating while the PM phase can be either insulating or metallic. Without involving strong correlation, we use symmetry-broken density-functional theory (DFT) to obtain the PM phases of insulating NaFeO3 vs the recently discovered metallic NaOsO3. We develop the understanding of insulating and metallic behaviors in paramagnetic oxides by analyzing the interactions between magnetic and positional symmetry breaking: The insulating gap is governed by the competition between the spin disorder that induces a distribution of different magnitudes of local magnetic moments and the polymorphous distribution of off-center atomic displacements. NaFeO3, on the other hand, has large positional displacement with small spin-disorder-induced moments distribution, leading to insulating PM phase, whereas NaOsO3 has a pronounced spin-disorder-induced moments distribution that forces the PM phase to become metallic. Our work identifies this symmetry-breaking competition as a general framework to bridge seemingly disparate metal-insulator behaviors in transition-metal oxides paramagnets without invoking strong correlation.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Do You Really Need a GPU to Guard Your LLM? CPU-Class Classifiers and Multi-Stage Pipelines for Safety Enforcement at Scale

Safety classifiers that screen LLM inputs for jailbreak attempts have become standard deployment components, yet almost all production systems rely on GPU-based models: fine-tuned transformers and LLM-as-a-judge pipelines. These approaches impose significant per-query latency and infrastructure cost. Very little research has asked whether CPU-based classifiers, such as support vector machines and gradient-boosted trees trained on TF-IDF features, can match their accuracy across the conditions that production deployments encounter. We evaluate five CPU classifier families, Mamba-130M as an SSM-based GPU classifier, and transformer-based GPU models (DeBERTa-v3 and Gemma-2B with LoRA) across nine jailbreak sources and three regimes: in-distribution (D1), out-of-distribution (D2), and adversarially obfuscated (D3). On D1, the best CPU classifier matches the best transformer GPU model at roughly one-fifth the deployment cost. On D2, CPU classifiers fail via confident miscalibration, producing high-confidence false negatives that bypass escalation entirely. On D3, CPU classifiers outperform transformer GPU models by more than 26 percentage points in F1. Based on these complementary failure modes, we design GuardChain, a three-stage safety pipeline (Regex -> CPU -> GPU) that routes each prompt to the cheapest stage capable of a confident decision. The CPU stage alone resolves 80\% of in-distribution prompts at near-peak accuracy, and the GPU stage recovers the out-of-distribution failures. For practitioners deploying LLM safety at scale, this work provides evidence that GPU-class infrastructure is unnecessary for the majority of traffic.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Study partner profile effects on CDR-SB change in anti-amyloid therapy evaluation

INTRODUCTION: The Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), a primary outcome in anti-amyloid therapy (AAT) trials, integrates information from participants and study partners. CDR-SB scores may vary by study partner characteristics, but their impact on 18-month change interpretation remains unclear. METHODS: Using the NACC Uniform Data Set, we fitted linear mixed-effects calibration models in an Alzheimer's disease (AD)-primary early symptomatic cohort and propagated study partner-associated coefficients through Monte Carlo simulations. We estimated components of 18-month CDR-SB change under observed profile changes, simulated follow-up imbalance in a common female living-with profile, and tipping-point scenarios. Analyses were repeated in amyloid-positive and trial-like cohorts. RESULTS: The AD-primary cohort included 15,061 participants and 7,683 baseline-to-18-month pairs. Observed profile changes generated a negligible cohort-level component (mean 0.0014 points, 95% simulation interval 0.0006 to 0.0022). Simulated follow-up imbalance generated differences of 0.014 to 0.071 points across 10% to 50% reassignment. Under the primary calibration model, generating a 0.45-point difference, equal to the reported Clarity AD CDR-SB group difference, required median net imbalance >100% and was feasible in 48% of iterations. Amyloid-positive and trial-like cohorts had lower median tipping points but wider intervals, reflecting coefficient imprecision. DISCUSSION: In the large AD-primary cohort, observed study partner profile changes and simulated follow-up imbalance generated CDR-SB differences that were small relative to the 0.45-point Clarity AD benchmark. Biomarker-confirmed estimates were less stable because of coefficient imprecision. These findings suggest limited impact under typical AD-primary conditions but support systematic study partner profile collection and sensitivity analyses in observational and external-comparator CDR-SB studies for AAT evaluation.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Model-independent upper bounds for the prices of Bermudan options with convex payoffs

arXiv:2503.13328v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Suppose $\mu$ and $\nu$ are probability measures on $\mathbb{R}$ satisfying $\mu \leq_{cx} \nu$. Let $a$ and $b$ be convex functions on $\mathbb{R}$ with $a \geq b \geq 0$. We are interested in finding $$\sup_{\mathbf{M}} \sup_{\tau} \mathbb{E}^{\mathbf{M}} \left[ a(X) I_{ \{ \tau = 1 \} } + b(Y) I_{ \{ \tau = 2 \} } \right] $$ where the first supremum is taken over consistent models $\mathbf{M}$ (i.e., filtered probability spaces $(\Omega, \mathbf{F}, \mathbb{F}, \mathbb{P})$ such that $Z=(z,Z_1,Z_2)=(\int_{\mathbb{R}} x \mu(dx) = \int_{\mathbb{R}} y \nu(dy), X, Y)$ is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$ martingale, where $X$ has law $\mu$ and $Y$ has law $\nu$ under $\mathbb{P}$) and $\tau$ in the second supremum is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$-stopping time taking values in $\{1,2\}$. Our contributions are first to characterise and simplify the dual problem, and second to completely solve the problem under some structural assumptions on the measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ (namely that $\mu$ and $\nu$ are absolutely continuous probability measures that satisfy the Dispersion Assumption). A key finding is that the canonical set-up in which the filtration is that generated by $Z$ is not rich enough to define an optimal model and additional randomisation is required. This holds even though the marginal laws $\mu$ and $\nu$ are atom-free. The problem has an interpretation of finding the robust, or model-free, no-arbitrage bound on the price of a Bermudan option with two possible exercise dates, given the prices of co-maturing European options.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

LandslideAgent with Multimodal LandslideBench: A Domain-Rule-Augmented Agent for Autonomous Landslide Identification and Analysis

Intelligent landslide hazard interpretation is critical for disaster prevention, yet current paradigms struggle to simultaneously extract visual features and high-level geoscientific semantics, while general-purpose vision-language models (VLMs) suffer from perceptual limitations and domain hallucinations in complex geological scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose an instruction-driven agentic framework comprising three components. First, LandslideBench, a multimodal fine-grained dataset with seven subtype labels, high-resolution imagery, pixel-level masks, and high-quality textual descriptions, is constructed via multi-VLM cross-validation and interactive annotation. Then, LandslideVLM, a landslide-oriented VLM, is fine-tuned via LoRA on LandslideBench to enhance geological semantic understanding. Finally, LandslideAgent, a domain rule-enhanced agent taking LandslideVLM as its cognitive backbone, employs a dual-rule controller incorporating structured report metadata constraints and cross-validation identification constraints to regulate automated tool invocation. Experiments demonstrate that LandslideBench provides effective baselines across five mainstream models on fine-grained classification and semantic segmentation. LandslideVLM achieves accuracy improvements of 10.96%, 32.87%, and 15.91% on landslide discrimination, fine-grained classification, and semantic description quality, respectively. LandslideAgent further enables autonomous multi-source spatial data inference, realizing full-process intelligence for landslide identification and analysis.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Controlled Chaos in 4D SCFTs

arXiv:2606.23785v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Chaotic dynamics play an important role in a number of physical systems. One of the qualitative hallmarks of this behavior is the appearance of a sufficiently "complex" spectrum of energy levels. This also makes it challenging to directly verify the onset of chaos in interacting quantum field theories. We present a class of 4D superconformal field theories (SCFTs) given by orbifolds of 4D $\mathcal{N} = 4$ Super Yang–Mills theory in which operator mixing in a controlled subsector is described by an effective spin chain in one spatial dimension with nearest neighbor interactions tuned by the marginal couplings of the SCFT. Tuning the marginal couplings results in a chaotic spectrum, while generically the spin chain exhibits Anderson localization. We diagnose the onset of chaos by analyzing the statistical distribution of eigenvalues of the dilatation operator, in particular properties such as eigenvalue level repulsion, spectral rigidity, and the spectral form factor. We also show that other diagnostics such as Krylov complexity sometimes do not faithfully capture this information. This structure defines a chaotic billiard in the target space of the stringy realization. We also comment on the large $N$ holographic dual description, where the controlled single spin chain approximation must be supplemented by multi-trace dynamics, i.e., the splitting and joining of multiple spin chains.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

On-Manifold Variational Learning with Heat-Kernel Priors

Learning unsupervised representations of medical imaging cohorts can reveal clinically meaningful prototypes without expert labels, which are often noisy and fail to capture true pathological heterogeneity. However, existing deep latent-variable models estimate Gaussian mixture priors via Euclidean averaging, producing prototypes that drift off the curved data manifold and degenerate as the number of sub-populations grows. We propose a manifold-anchored variational framework built on a geometry-aware Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, whose M-step selects each sub-population prototype as the graph medoid with the highest diffusion centrality on a heat-kernel-weighted latent graph, ensuring that every prototype remains on-manifold. A Dirichlet energy regularizer enforces geometric smoothness of the latent space, and a per-sub-population uncertainty score enables label-free quality assessment. \rev{The manifold-anchored EM is a general-purpose geometric tool that extends standard EM and applies readily to other latent-variable models beyond this setting.} On cardiac scar and brain MRI benchmarks, our framework attains the highest accuracy among all compared methods, produces the sharpest prototypes reported to date, and remains stable at large sub-population counts where all baselines degenerate.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation

arXiv:2606.13285v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Improving Cross-Format Robustness in Language Models with Multi-Format Training

Large language models often remain sensitive to answer format: a question solved correctly in one form may fail in another semantically equivalent form. To study this gap, we define cross-format robustness as the extent to which a model answers the same underlying question consistently across formats. We then compare full-format training with FormatMix, which expands only a subset of training items into multiple equivalent formats using either random or targeted selection. Across GLM4 and Llama-3.1, multi-format supervision consistently improves both task performance and cross-format robustness, whereas Multiple-choice question (MCQ)-only supervision alone brings little benefit and can even reduce robustness. We further find that expanding only about 30% of the training set into multiple formats often recovers most of the gain from full-format training, and this effect appears across the model families and sizes we study. These results suggest that format diversity, rather than additional supervision alone, is the key driver of robustness. That lightweight multi-format augmentation is a practical way to make LLMs less sensitive to answer format without changing the base model.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios

arXiv:2606.13338v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are increasingly deployed on multivariate systems with distinct channel physics and operational constraints, but existing benchmarks evaluate neither property at scale. Public canonical multivariate benchmarks cap out at 2,000 channels, while power-system benchmarks either lack temporal structure or probabilistic evaluation. We introduce PowerPhase, a probabilistic forecasting benchmark built on six transmission grids ranging from 2,000 to 36,964 jointly forecasted channels, more than an order of magnitude beyond popular canonical multivariate benchmarks. Each target trajectory is the output of an AC power-flow solve, and PowerPhase ships with constraint-aware metrics, including Safety_mBrier, NECV, and CVaR-alpha, that complement CRPS and Distortion. Across eight baselines and three seeds, distributional accuracy and constraint satisfaction rank models differently, a trade-off we term safety-fidelity. We further propose PowerForge, a scenario-based quantile forecaster with type-specific decoding heads and a causal bridge between variable groups, which achieves the best average rank on every grid.