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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Instability of a nonlinear oscillator with small friction and small additive noise

arXiv:2606.11389v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Let $\lambda = \lambda(\beta,\sigma,a,b)$ denote the top Lyapunov exponent for the linearization along trajectories of the noisy damped non-linear oscillator $\ddot{x}+\beta \dot{x} + ax+bx^3 = \sigma \dot{W}_t$, where $a$, $b$ and $\beta$ are all positive and $\sigma \neq 0$. In 2004 Arnold, Imkeller and Sri Namachchivaya stated without proof that $\lambda(\varepsilon^2 \beta,\varepsilon \sigma,a,b) \sim \overline{\lambda} \varepsilon^{2/3}$ as $\varepsilon \to 0$ with $\overline{\lambda} > 0$. This paper contains a proof of this assertion.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

How AI Agents Reshape Knowledge Work: Autonomy, Efficiency, and Scope

arXiv:2606.07489v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Frontier AI systems are bridging the gap between intelligence and utility by shifting from conversational assistants to autonomous agents that execute tasks end to end. Using production data from Perplexity's Search and Computer products, we study this transition by examining how AI agents accelerate and reshape knowledge work. Three key empirical findings emerge. First, using sessions with near-identical initial query pairs as natural experiments for the same underlying task attempted with both products, Computer performs 26 minutes of autonomous work per user session, versus 33 seconds for Search. Computer automates task decomposition and execution that Search users might otherwise manually orchestrate and implement. As a result, Computer shifts follow-up query distribution toward higher-order work such as verification and extension. Autonomy also increases execution quality, with per-query dissatisfaction rates 55% lower on Computer than on Search. Second, due to its autonomy advantage, Computer reduces completion time from 269 to 36 minutes on matched tasks, lowering estimated time and cost by 87% and 94%, respectively, compared to humans equipped with Search alone. Third, Computer changes the scope of work that users attempt: Computer queries more often cross occupational boundaries, require higher-order cognition, draw on broader expertise, take the form of composite tasks that bundle interdependent subtasks into a single query, and unlock work activities that are essentially absent from Search usage among the same users. Together, the evidence indicates that AI agents accelerate workflows, enhance output quality, reduce costs, and expand the breadth and depth of automated work.

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Testing for a Hidden Geometry in Random Graphs

arXiv:2606.16715v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of detecting a faint geometric signal hidden in an otherwise random graph. Formally, we consider a hypothesis testing problem in which, under the null, the observed graph is an Erdős–Rényi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,q)$, while under the alternative a random geometric graph $\mathcal{G}(k,q,d)$ is planted on $k\le n$ vertices. The planted subgraph is generated from independent random points on the unit sphere $\mathbb{S}^{d-1}$, with edges determined by latent geometric proximity and calibrated to have edge density $q$. Our goal is to characterize the statistical and computational limits of detecting this hidden geometry. We derive sharp information-theoretic lower bounds that identify regimes where detection is impossible and provide algorithms that achieve these limits whenever detection is feasible. We further investigate the computational complexity of the problem and determine when efficient polynomial-time tests exist. The model exhibits an easy–hard–impossible phase transition: some regimes allow efficient detection, others permit detection only with computationally intractable procedures, and still others render detection impossible even with unlimited computational power. As evidence for the computational barrier, we prove that all low-degree polynomial algorithms fail throughout the conjecturally hard regime, demonstrating a sharp gap between statistical and computational feasibility.

04.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Geometric Deep Learning Reveals Ligandable and Cryptic RNA Binding Small Molecule Pockets (SMARTPocket)

RNAs are important therapeutic targets, however identifying ligandable small-molecule binding pockets remains a major barrier to RNA-targeted drug discovery. Here, SMARTPocket, an atomic-level geometric deep learning framework for predicting RNA-small molecule binding pockets directly from three-dimensional structure is introduced. SMARTPocket represents RNA as full-atom point clouds and uses transfer learning from more than 110,000 protein binding interface structures to overcome the limited number of experimentally elucidated RNA-ligand complexes. Across four established single-chain benchmarks and three broader curated benchmarks, SMARTPocket consistently outperforms existing RNA pocket predictors and general biomolecular modeling approaches. The model generalizes to apo RNA structures when conformational changes are modest, identifies cryptic ligandable pockets, and recapitulates experimentally validated binding sites in the SARS-CoV-2 frameshifting element and an RNA aptamer evolved to bind small molecules. SMARTPocket-guided docking further improves near-native RNA-ligand pose recovery and computational efficiency compared with blind docking. These results establish SMARTPocket as a generalizable framework for structure-based identification of ligandable RNA pockets and for accelerating discovery of RNA-targeted small molecules.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Not All Retrievals are Useful: Cross-Attention for Input-Aware RAG in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2603.14709v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances zero-shot time series (TS) forecasting by leveraging external knowledge bases, yet existing approaches overlook input-level relevance when fusing retrieved samples with the query. We argue that not all retrievals are equally useful, and irrelevant ones can degrade performance. To this end, we propose Cross-RAG, a zero-shot RAG-based forecasting framework that selectively attends to query-relevant retrieved samples via query–retrieval cross-attention. By modeling input-level relevance between the query and retrieved samples, Cross-RAG jointly incorporates three sources of information: 1) the query itself, 2) the retrieved samples, and 3) their relational interactions. In particular, this input-aware design enables Cross-RAG to remain stable as the number of retrieved samples $k$ grows, whereas prior methods without cross-attention require careful $k$ tuning to avoid degradation from irrelevant retrievals. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Cross-RAG consistently improves zero-shot forecasting performance across multiple TSFM backbones and various RAG methods, with additional analyses confirming its effectiveness across various retrieval scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/cross-rag/.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Efficient Rationale-based Retrieval: On-policy Distillation from Generative Rerankers based on JEPA

Unlike traditional fact-based retrieval, rationale-based retrieval typically necessitates cross-encoding of query-document pairs using large language models, incurring substantial computational costs. To address this limitation, we propose Rabtriever, which independently encodes queries and documents, while providing comparable cross query-document comprehension capabilities to rerankers. We start from training a LLM-based generative reranker, which puts the document prior to the query and prompts the LLM to generate the relevance score by log probabilities. We then employ it as the teacher of an on-policy distillation framework, with Rabtriever as the student to reconstruct the teacher's contextual-aware query embedding. To achieve this effect, Rabtriever is first initialized from the teacher, with parameters frozen. The Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) paradigm is then adopted, which integrates a lightweight, trainable predictor between LLM layers and heads, projecting the query embedding into a new hidden space, with the document embedding as the latent vector. JEPA then minimizes the distribution difference between this projected embedding and the teacher embedding. To strengthen the sampling efficiency of on-policy distillation, we also add an auxiliary loss on the reverse KL of LLM logits, to reshape the student's logit distribution. Rabtriever optimizes the teacher's quadratic complexity on the document length to linear, verified both theoretically and empirically. Experiments show that Rabtriever outperforms different retriever baselines across diverse rationale-based tasks, including empathetic conversations and robotic manipulations, with minor accuracy degradation from the reranker. Rabtriever also generalizes well on traditional retrieval benchmarks such as MS MARCO and BEIR, with comparable performance to the best retriever baseline.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

PAL-Bench: Evidence-Grounded Profile Reconstruction from Longitudinal Personal Albums

arXiv:2606.16175v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal personal albums are weak-schema multimodal databases: noisy perceptual records whose key facts require joins across faces, text, timestamps, locations, and repeated events. Existing visual, video, document, and lifelog benchmarks test sub-problems, but not album-scale profile reconstruction with social identity binding and evidence citation. Benchmarking this task is difficult because the ground truth needed for evaluation–owner profiles, social graphs, face-name maps, and evidence provenance–is private state that real albums cannot safely release. We introduce PAL-Bench, a controlled benchmark for evidence-grounded reconstruction under a public-record contract. Its Evidence Compiler builds latent private worlds, programs target-level evidence paths, renders album pixels, re-measures them through perception pipelines, and exports audited public/private views. Agents receive only perception-derived public records; targets, identifier maps, and evidence paths remain hidden. PAL-Bench contains 50 synthetic users, 36,659 public photo records, and 2,799 targets over owner facts, identities, and relations. A privacy-preserving audit with 10 participants confirms that PAL-Bench evidence structures match real private albums, though equivalent releases remain privacy-prohibitive. Across seven systems and two compute-matched diagnostics, a seven-metric protocol reveals a gap between plausible profile summarization and faithful social reconstruction: systems recover some owner facts but struggle with recurring identities and evidence citation. PAL-TRACE, a reference framework that freezes identity bindings before owner-fact mining, performs best but leaves hard identity resolution far from solved. PAL-Bench provides a testbed for perceptual entity resolution, multimodal data integration, temporal evidence aggregation, and provenance-aware structured prediction.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Uncertainty Quantification for Flow-Based Vision-Language-Action Models

arXiv:2606.18043v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Vision-language-action models (VLAs) combine vision-language backbones with expressive generative action heads trained via flow matching on large-scale robotic datasets. Despite their strong empirical performance in robotic manipulation, VLAs lack mechanisms to quantify confidence in their predictions and to detect when their actions may be unreliable. This presents a critical limitation for real-world deployment in non-stationary environments, where models inevitably encounter scenarios outside their pretraining distribution and may fail without warning. To address this, we derive an efficient method for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-matching models by leveraging velocity-field disagreement (VFD) across a small ensemble. We successfully use this uncertainty estimate for failure detection during deployment and active fine-tuning of flow-based VLAs. To this end, we propose SAVE, a framework for uncertainty-guided active multitask fine-tuning that reduces the number of costly expert demonstrations required to adapt VLAs to new tasks. Through extensive experiments on the LIBERO benchmark, we demonstrate that VFD yields better-calibrated uncertainty estimates predictive of downstream performance, that VFD achieves strong performance in detecting failures, and that uncertainty-guided data acquisition with SAVE requires at least 22% fewer samples than baselines. In summary, our work shows that quantifying epistemic uncertainty in flow-based VLAs improves both failure awareness and adaptation. Project website: tum-lsy.github.io/uq_vla/.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Rethinking Shrinkage Bias in LLM FP4 Pretraining: Geometric Origin, Systemic Impact, and UFP4 Recipe

arXiv:2606.20381v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: FP4 training promises substantial reductions in memory and computation cost for LLM pretraining, yet current FP4 hardware paths and recipes, including NVIDIA Blackwell/Rubin-class systems and AMD MI350-series GPUs, remain centered on E2M1 data elements. In this study, we identify a fundamental limitation of that choice: non-uniform formats such as E2M1 inherently suffer from Shrinkage Bias, a systematic negative rounding error caused by the geometric asymmetry of their representable bins. We show that this bias accumulates multiplicatively across layers and is amplified by the Random Hadamard Transform (RHT), providing a unified explanation for the training instability observed in existing E2M1-based FP4 recipes. In contrast, uniform grids (E1M2/INT4) bypass this grid-geometry error and better convert the improved bucket utilization from RHT into higher quantization quality. Based on this finding, we propose UFP4, a uniform 4-bit training recipe that applies RHT to all three training GEMMs while restricting stochastic rounding to dY alone. On Dense 1.5B, MoE 7.9B, and MoE 124B long-run pretraining, UFP4 consistently achieves lower BF16-relative loss degradation than strong E2M1-based baselines, supported by scaling-law analysis and ablation studies. Our results suggest that future accelerators should support E1M2/INT4-style uniform 4-bit grids as first-class training primitives alongside E2M1.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Improving Detection of Rare Nodes in Hierarchical Multi-Label Learning

arXiv:2602.08986v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In hierarchical multi-label classification, a persistent challenge is enabling model predictions to reach deeper levels of the hierarchy for more detailed or fine-grained classifications. This difficulty partly arises from the natural rarity of certain classes (or hierarchical nodes) and the hierarchical constraint that ensures child nodes are almost always less frequent than their parents. To address this, we propose a weighted loss objective for neural networks that combines node-wise imbalance weighting with focal weighting components, the latter leveraging modern quantification of ensemble uncertainties. By emphasizing rare nodes rather than rare observations (data points), and focusing on uncertain nodes for each model output distribution during training, we observe improvements in recall by up to a factor of five on benchmark datasets, along with statistically significant gains in $F_{1}$ score. We also show our approach aids convolutional networks on challenging tasks, as in situations with suboptimal encoders or limited data.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

NeRD: Neuro-Symbolic Rule Distillation for Efficient Ontology-Grounded Chain-of-Thought in Medical Image Diagnosis

Interpretability is essential for trustworthy medical image diagnosis. However, existing concept-driven interpretable methods have key limitations: Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) require scoring all predefined concepts at inference time and for manual intervention, imposing a substantial burden on clinicians, while rationale-based generative approaches often select concepts by class discriminability, which can drift from diagnostic ontologies. To address these issues, we propose Neuro-Symbolic Rule Distillation (NeRD), a framework that produces efficient, ontology-grounded reasoning chains that are sufficient yet non-redundant, without manually crafting diagnostic rules. Experiments on two skin datasets demonstrate strong diagnostic performance and interpretability, and blinded expert evaluation confirms the clinical plausibility of NeRD rationales. Our method further enables a first expert-in-the-loop study for Multimodal Chain-of-Thought-based diagnosis, achieving efficient and effective concept-level intervention.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Split-Head Quantum Generative Adversarial Network for Crystalline Material Discovery

arXiv:2606.17852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The discovery of novel crystalline materials is a critical challenge in computational materials science, often limited by the spatial representation limitations and mode collapse typical of classical generative models. Traditionally, developing Quantum GANs for continuous 3D space is hindered by the limited capacity of near-term hardware. To overcome this, we adapt a physics-informed "split-head" architecture right from the quantum trunk to explicitly decouple macroscopic lattice bounds from microscopic atomic coordinates, significantly maximizing resource efficiency. This study disentangles the contributions of quantum circuits from these architectural priors by evaluating a Split-Head Quantum Generative Adversarial Network against an architecture-matched classical ablation model. Evaluated on the highly constrained Mg-Mn-O system, the results reveal a highly nuanced performance dichotomy between the advanced models. The architecture-matched classical ablation model demonstrated superior thermodynamic precision. Conversely, the integration of quantum circuits in the SH-QGAN drove unparalleled structural breadth and latent space exploration, more than doubling the ablation's geometric validity and successfully generating novel, metastable candidates converging on the Mg2MnO4 stoichiometry. These findings clarify that while architectural separation of cell and atom generation drives strict thermodynamic precision, quantum feature mapping independently provides the spatial diversity necessary to overcome mode collapse. Both mechanisms offer distinct, complementary enhancements for the generative discovery of advanced materials.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Discrete-Time Gaussian Process Mixtures for Robot Policy Learning

arXiv:2505.03296v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present Mixture of Discrete-time Gaussian Processes (MiDiGap), a novel approach for flexible policy representation and imitation learning in robot manipulation. MiDiGap enables learning from as few as five demonstrations using only camera observations and generalizes across a wide range of challenging tasks. It excels at long-horizon behaviors such as making coffee, highly constrained motions such as opening doors, dynamic actions such as scooping with a spatula, and multimodal tasks such as hanging a mug. MiDiGap learns these tasks on a CPU in less than a minute and scales linearly to large datasets. We also develop a rich suite of tools for inference-time steering using evidence such as collision signals and robot kinematic constraints. This steering enables novel generalization capabilities, including obstacle avoidance and cross-embodiment policy transfer. MiDiGap achieves state-of-the-art performance on diverse few-shot manipulation benchmarks. On constrained RLBench tasks, it improves policy success by 76 percentage points and reduces trajectory cost by 67%. On multimodal tasks, it improves policy success by 48 percentage points and increases sample efficiency by a factor of 20. In cross-embodiment transfer, it more than doubles policy success. We make the code publicly available at https://midigap.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

14.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Optimizing Wigner Negativity in Scattering Processes Using Energetic Cost Functions

arXiv:2606.15101v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Wigner negativities (WNs) are key signatures of non-Gaussian bosonic states and essential resources for quantum technologies. We study their generation in the scattering of coherent pulses by a two-level atom coupled to a one-dimensional reservoir, a unitary and energy-preserving platform. Optimization in this multimode setting is hindered by the complexity of evaluating Wigner functions. We overcome this challenge by introducing energetic cost functions that identify output modes most likely to host large negativities. First using incoherent energy and then isolating a genuinely non-Gaussian contribution, we demonstrate a strong correlation between these quantities and WNs. This correlation extends beyond short, intense pulses to encompass pulses of finite energy, where photons are scattered while the two-level atom is driven. Focusing on the energy-efficiency of the process, we show that maximally efficient generation takes place for one input photon, on average, spectrally mode-matched with the atom.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Persistence diagrams of random triangular matrices over finite fields

arXiv:2606.17895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Let us consider a random infinite lower triangular matrix, where the entries on and below the diagonal are i.i.d. uniform random elements of a fixed finite field. We investigate the evolution of the span of the first $n$ rows of this matrix as $n$ grows. Many properties of this evolving subspace can be captured with the help of the verbose persistence diagram, which is a standard tool in stochastic topology and topological data analysis. We give an explicit formula for the distribution of the persistence diagram. We prove a law of large numbers for the distribution of lifetimes. We also describe the fluctuations of the persistent Betti numbers.

16.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-15

Activity-dependent adaptive deep brain stimulation improves gait in Parkinson’s disease

Authors:

Parkinson’s disease leads to a spectrum of locomotor deficits that vary in severity with the nature of daily activities and the fluctuating physiology of patients. Many of these deficits remain inadequately addressed by existing deep brain stimulation therapies that rely on activity-agnostic parameters optimized for cardinal motor symptoms. By contrast, therapies embedding activity-specific parameters have the potential to better address the entire range of symptoms. Here we expose physiological principles that enable real-time decoding of ongoing locomotor activities across motor fluctuations from the neural dynamics of the subthalamic nucleus. This decoding steered activity-dependent adaptations of deep brain stimulation therapies that improved locomotor deficits while preserving efficacy for cardinal motor symptoms across activities of daily living. Our activity-dependent framework provides a blueprint for next-generation neuromodulation therapies that continuously select parameters optimized to the behavioral context and fluctuating physiology of each patient. ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT06791902 . Neural decoding algorithms that leverage physiological principles of locomotor encoding support activity-dependent deep brain stimulation therapies that improve locomotor deficits in people with Parkinson’s disease.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fabricating fiber cavity mirror substrates compatible with high coupling efficiency

arXiv:2606.12168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Fiber optical cavities offer small mode volumes and correspondingly strong light-matter interactions in an open Fabry-Perot geometry. However, existing fabrication techniques do not reliably produce substrates with surface profiles amenable to high mode matching between the cavity mode and fiber core, thereby limiting the achievable collection efficiency. Here we present a technique to fabricate fiber mirror substrates while using $in situ$ reflectometry to constrain the achievable mode matching prior to coating. By measuring the back-reflection from freshly cleaved fiber tips, we pre-select 138 fibers compatible with 96.5-99.5% mode matching, and after a single CO$_2$ laser ablation pulse, these fibers remained compatible with 95.3-99.2\%. This simple technique provides rapid feedback during each stage of substrate fabrication, greatly enhancing the yield of viable fiber mirror substrates prior to (expensive) coating runs.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Integrative Mechanisms of Early Clinical and Research Training (ECART) in Orthopaedic Medical Education: A Qualitative Single-Case Study

Background: Early clinical exposure and student participation in research are important components of medical training. They may support learning motivation, evidence literacy, and self-directed learning. In many programmes, however, clinical training and research training remain separated. Few studies have explained, within a real teaching team, how learners turn clinical phenomena into researchable questions and how research participation can reshape their clinical understanding. Early Clinical and Research Training (ECART) is a clinical-research integration approach developed by an orthopaedic team at the Second Hospital of Shandong University. Methods: We conducted a theory-informed, interpretivist qualitative single-case study. The case was an orthopaedic clinical-research team at the Second Hospital of Shandong University. Participants included medical undergraduates, academic degree graduate students, professional degree graduate students, clinical teachers, and research platform leads. We used purposive sampling with maximum variation. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and de-identified teaching documents. Data were analysed using the framework method and were interpreted with a Context-Activity-Mechanism-Outcome (CAMO) logic. Results: The analysis showed that ECART was not simply early entry into the clinic or early entry into the laboratory. It was a team-based learning process centred on real medical problems. Four themes were identified. First, early clinical exposure helped learners make real problems visible and nameable, rather than merely increasing exposure. Second, clinical-research connection followed different pathways. Professional degree graduate students often started from clinical uncertainties in residency training and case management, and moved toward evidence-informed small projects. Academic degree graduate students often started from literature gaps, experimental findings, and mechanistic hypotheses, and then used clinical feedback to calibrate meaning. Third, research training, through literature reading, group meetings, experimental design, data review, and mentor questioning, helped learners move from completing tasks to explaining problems. Fourth, sustained ECART depended on a tiered team ecology formed by clinical teachers, research mentors, research platforms, and senior peers. Based on these findings, we refined the ECART programme theory: real medical problems are translated through explanation, searching, experimentalisation, and feedback-based reinterpretation into research questions that learners can understand, discuss, and test. This process supports problem formation, evidence awareness, mechanistic reasoning, translational judgement, and career clarification. Conclusion: ECART is best understood as a clinical-research integrated learning ecology that emerges from real team practice, rather than as a fixed standardised course. Its educational value lies in a recurring cycle of real problems, research translation, multi-source feedback, and clinical reinterpretation. This framework may inform the design, evaluation, and contextual adaptation of clinical-research integration pathways in medical education.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

(Non)-hyperuniformity of perturbed lattices

arXiv:2405.19881v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We ask whether a stationary lattice in dimension $d$ whose points are shifted by identically distributed but possibly dependent perturbations remains hyperuniform. When $d = 1$ or $2$, we show that it is the case when the perturbations have a finite $d$-moment, and that this condition is sharp. When $d \geq 3$, we construct arbitrarily small perturbations such that the resulting point process is not hyperuniform. As a side remark of independent interest, we exhibit hyperuniform processes with arbitrarily slow decay of their number variance.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

PaAno+: Multiscale Encoding and Cross-Variable Attention for Time Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2606.20055v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection has significant practical value for industrial and medical monitoring, as well as other critical domains. Current Transformer- and large-model-based detection approaches incur excessive computational overhead, while existing lightweight alternatives are constrained by insufficient feature extraction and inadequate modeling of dependencies across multivariate variables. To mitigate the above drawbacks, this study develops a lightweight, efficient anomaly detection model, dubbed PaAno, within the patch-oriented representation learning paradigm. In the encoder module, a multiscale feature-extraction backbone is constructed using convolutional kernels with differentiated receptive fields to capture hierarchical temporal characteristics; subsequent cross-scale adaptive attention aggregation, combined with residual connection optimization, further stabilizes feature representation learning. A cross-variable fusion attention module is embedded to explicitly characterize inter-variable correlations, empowering the model to identify anomalous patterns amid intricate operational conditions. Moreover, a novel pretext task based on temporal patch-window sorting is customized to uncover intrinsic structural properties of time series, and triplet loss is leveraged to optimize the patch embedding space for enhanced feature discrimination. Extensive experiments on the TSB-AD benchmark demonstrate that the proposed PaAno achieves state-of-the-art detection accuracy on both univariate and multivariate tasks, yielding significant performance gains across evaluation metrics, including VUS-PR, relative to the original PaAno. Leveraging a compact network design, the presented model achieves favorable computational efficiency, enabling deployment on resource-limited terminals for real-time anomaly inference.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking prevalence and intensity in Germany: A repeated cross-sectional analysis from 1998 to 2024

Background: Smoking inequalities by socioeconomic status have widened consistently in Germany, but sex-specific trends after 2013 and inequalities in daily cigarette consumption among smokers (intensity) are unknown. We analyzed trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in smoking prevalence and intensity among German adults across three decades. Methods: We used 14 waves (1998-2024) of population-representative cross-sectional data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to estimate sex-specific trends in smoking prevalence and intensity in adults aged 25-64. Inequalities were quantified across strata of education, occupation, and equivalized household income using the absolute and relative concentration index with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Results: Overall smoking prevalence declined from 35.05% (CI: [33.90%, 36.20%] in 1998 to 22.19% (CI: [21.15%, 23.24%]) in 2024, and mean intensity from 17.49 (CI: [17.09,17.90]) to 13.33 (CI: [12.88, 13.79]) cigarettes/day. Over this period sex-differences in both outcomes narrowed almost completely. Absolute and relative inequalities in smoking prevalence widened across all SES dimensions, particularly for education and occupation. By 2024, inequalities were larger among women than men driven by a stagnating or rising smoking prevalence among low-SES women at least until 2018 alongside continued declines in higher-SES women and for men. Inequalities in smoking intensity, particularly related to income, were generally smaller than those in prevalence. Conclusion: Socioeconomic smoking inequalities in Germany widened from 1998 to 2024 primarily driven by reductions among higher-SES groups and increases in low-SES women. However, recent reductions in low-SES women may indicate a new phase in the smoking epidemic. Health equity considerations should be integrated into a targeted German tobacco control strategy.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Learning the Context of Errors: Black-Box Online Adaptation of Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.14222v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

An Integrable Token Mixing Layer from the Generalized Yang Baxter Equation

arXiv:2606.15085v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The YB Mixer is a sequence token mixing layer derived from free fermion and generalized Yang Baxter structures. It applies a core principle from integrable systems where a local algebraic constraint guarantees global computational stability. By using the Ising exchange algebra the mixer creates a free fermionic structure that acts as an exactly norm preserving orthogonal map. This algebra also produces commuting transfer matrices which allow inference to be order free and adaptable to any variable budget. To ensure the model can generalize to longer sequence lengths it uses a spectral circulant generator. This generator maintains the crucial orthogonal and commuting properties of the system. The result is a highly stable and mathematically grounded architecture for sequence processing.

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Unbiased Derivative Estimation for Stationary Mean of Parameterized Markov chains

arXiv:2606.11487v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a new approach to unbiased estimation of the gradients of the stationary means associated with parametrized families of Markov chains. Our estimators are particularly efficient when the Markov chains have slow mixing rate. Our approach does not require a specific parametrization except for an oracle to evaluate the transition density and its gradient at a given data point without any additional knowledge about the density function itself. It makes our estimator suitable for parametrizations associated with neural networks. The estimator can potentially achieve large improvement in terms of efficiency. Numerical experiments confirm the good performance predicted by the theory.

25.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-22

Biological aging and generational shifts in early-onset cancer risk

Authors:

Incidence of early-onset cancer is rising globally in recent generations, which underscores the need to elucidate the influence of emerging generational risk factors. Systemic and organ-specific aging reflects the cumulative impact of exposures and may provide an integrative and complementary approach to understand early-onset cancer risk. Here among 154,169 young adults from the United Kingdom Biobank, systemic aging measured by PhenoAge increased across birth cohorts, with 23% s.d. increase for those born 1965–1974 versus 1950–1954, and was associated with early-onset solid cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR)per s.d. 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–1.13), driven by lung, gastrointestinal and uterine cancers, independent of genetic risks of aging and cancer. Patterns were consistent using alternative systemic aging measures, including the Klemera–Doubal method-defined age gap and metabolomic-based age gap. These findings were validated partially among 10,262 participants in the United States All of Us Research Program. Proteomics-based organ-specific aging analyses linked immune aging with early-onset lung cancer (HRper s.d. 1.89; CI, 1.20–2.97) and adipose tissue aging to early-onset colorectal cancer (HR 1.60; CI, 1.11–2.32). Greater age gap, reflecting more advanced biological aging relative to chronological age, may serve as a driver associated with risk of early-onset solid cancers, highlighting the importance of uncovering underlying mechanisms to guide effective prevention strategies. Analyses of population cohorts found that young adults exhibited earlier systemic and organ-specific aging, which was associated with increased risk of early-onset cancer compared with older adults born decades earlier.