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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

libhmm: A Modern C++20 Library for Hidden Markov Models with Correct MLE Emission M-Steps

作者:

arXiv:2605.29208v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We describe libhmm, a C++20 library for Hidden Markov Model parameter estimation, sequence decoding, and model selection. libhmm addresses two gaps in existing software: the absence of a well-maintained, zero-dependency C++ HMM library suitable for embedding in production systems, and the widespread use of method-of-moments (MOM) approximations in the emission distribution M-step of the Baum-Welch algorithm. The library implements correct maximum likelihood estimators for sixteen scalar emission distributions, including an ECME algorithm for the location-scale Student-t distribution, Newton-Raphson maximization for Gamma, Beta, Weibull, and Negative Binomial distributions, and the von Mises distribution for circular data. All forward-backward and Viterbi calculations operate in full log-space. SIMD acceleration is provided for AVX-512, AVX2, SSE2, and ARM NEON via compile-time dispatch with scalar fallback. Version 4 adds multivariate observation support via the BasicHmm template, with three multivariate emission families (diagonal Gaussian, full-covariance Gaussian, and independent components) each with correct weighted MLE M-steps. Python bindings are available via the companion package pylibhmm. We compare libhmm against established C and C++ HMM libraries and against published R reference packages on seven real-data benchmarks, and discuss the architectural tradeoffs made in the design.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Poster: EdgeCitadel – Hybrid NATS-MQTT Orchestration for Edge Multi-Agent Systems

arXiv:2606.14710v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Edge-resident AI agents increasingly span home servers, IoT hubs, laptops, and phones, yet their coordination stacks still assume cloud-style transports or a central relay. We present EdgeCitadel, an edge multi-agent orchestration platform built around a single NATS 2.10 server with the built-in MQTT adapter. The design combines MQTT connectivity for heterogeneous agents, JetStream-backed persistence and replay for backend services, direct peer delegation over a shared subject namespace, and a passive aggregator that visualizes and stores traffic without sitting on the delivery path. Our poster highlights the migration from MQTT relay prototypes (common in IoT communication) to the current hybrid architecture and demonstrates a working cross-device testbed spanning ARM64, x64, and Android clients.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

ASyMOB: Algebraic Symbolic Mathematical Operations Benchmark

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to symbolic mathematics, yet existing evaluations often conflate pattern memorization with genuine reasoning. To address this gap, we present ASyMOB, a high-resolution dataset of 35,368 validated symbolic math problems spanning integration, limits, differential equations, series, and hypergeometrics. Unlike prior benchmarks, ASyMOB systematically perturbs each seed problem using symbolic, numeric, and equivalence-preserving transformations, enabling a fine-grained assessment of generalization. Our evaluation reveals three key findings: (1) most models' performance collapses under minor perturbations, while top systems exhibit an apparent regime shift in robustness; (2) integrated code tools stabilize performance, particularly for weaker models; and (3) we identify examples where Computer Algebra Systems (CAS) fail while LLMs succeed, as well as problems solved only via a hybrid LLM-CAS approach, highlighting a promising integration frontier. ASyMOB serves as a principled diagnostic tool for measuring and accelerating progress toward building verifiable, trustworthy AI for scientific discovery.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Beyond Native Success: Auditing Deployment-Interface Exposure of CLIP Backdoors

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training models are widely reused across downstream interfaces, including feature extraction, retrieval, reranking, and selection. Existing CLIP backdoor, however, usually validate attacks on a small attack-native task, leaving unclear whether the same poisoned checkpoint remains exposed, weakens, or becomes not applicable when reused through other interfaces. We introduce DIFE, a Deployment-Interface Footprint Evaluation framework that audits backdoored CLIP checkpoints across deployment interfaces. DIFE makes various evaluations comparable by specifying each interface's component readout, trigger channel, target event, reference condition, and metric. DIFE also introduces effective-footprint diagnosis to identify the reusable CLIP component or component combination that carries exposure and explains where risk transfers. Auditing reproduced CLIP backdoors with DIFE reveals a structured landscape: native success is not a checkpoint-level risk certificate, exposure follows component footprints, text-side poisoning does not yield textual-encoder control, and some coupled attacks remain mechanism-bound. This audit reveals a import gapin existing CLIP backdoors: a textual encoder that itself becomes a reusable carrier of adversarial behavior. We therefore introduce BadTextTower to fill this gap. BadTextTower produces strong text-conditioned retrieval, reranking, and selection exposure while leaving visual-only reuse nearly clean.

05.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Gate-Controlled Spin Qubits in Confined Altermagnets

作者:

arXiv:2606.24150v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose gate-defined spin qubits in electrostatically confined altermagnetic quantum dots. Elliptical confinement of the $d$-wave altermagnetic structure produces a low-energy doublet with opposite spin polarization. For the range of parameters used here, the qubit states energy gap lies in the microwave range while the leakage gap remains in the meV range. Even without spin-orbit coupling, time-dependent simulations show that a phase-controlled quadrupolar gate drive about a fixed bias point implements $X_{\pi/2}$ and $X_\pi$ rotations by resonantly modulating the confinement anisotropy. We extend the study to two-qubits using a double quantum dot. We show that the double quantum dot spectrum can be cleanly projected onto isolated quantum dot product states with a nonzero nonlocal Pauli block in the effective logical two-qubit Hamiltonian. Resonant central-barrier modulation then drives the logical two-qubit component close to a maximally entangled state. These calculations show anisotropic altermagnetic quantum dots as a route to locally gate-controlled spin qubits without requiring spin-orbit coupling.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

IGLU: The Integrated Gaussian Linear Unit Activation Function

Activation functions are fundamental to deep neural networks, governing gradient flow, optimization stability, and representational capacity. Within historic deep architectures, while ReLU has been the dominant choice for the activation function, modern transformer-based models increasingly are adopting smoother alternatives such as GELU and other self-gated alternatives. Despite their empirical success, the mathematical relationships among these functions and the principles underlying their effectiveness remains only partially understood. We introduce IGLU, a parametric activation function derived as a scale mixture of GELU gates under a half-normal mixing distribution. This derivation yields a closed-form expression whose gating component is exactly the Cauchy CDF, providing a principled one-parameter family that continuously interpolates between identity-like and ReLU-like behavior via a single sharpness parameter $\sigma$. Unlike GELU's Gaussian gate, IGLU's heavy-tailed Cauchy gate decays polynomially in the negative tail, guaranteeing non-zero gradients for all finite inputs and offering greater robustness to vanishing gradients. We further introduce IGLU-Approx, a computationally efficient rational approximation of IGLU expressed entirely in terms of ReLU operations that eliminates transcendental function evaluation. Through evaluations on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and WikiText-103 across ResNet-20, ViT-Tiny, and GPT-2 Small, IGLU achieves competitive or superior performance on both vision and language datasets against ReLU and GELU baselines, with IGLU-Approx recovering this performance at substantially reduced computational cost. In particular, we show that employing a heavy-tailed gate leads to considerable performance gains in heavily imbalanced classification datasets.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Deep-Learning-Based Pixelated Microwave Filter Design and Characterization using Electro-Optical Electric-Field Measurements

arXiv:2606.18402v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional microwave filter design typically relies on iterative parameter tuning and predefined topologies, which limits design space and increases development time. This study uses a deep learning approach combining convolutional neural networks with genetic algorithms to automate pixelated microwave filter synthesis. To validate the approach experimentally, both S-parameter and spatial electric-field measurements were analyzed. The synthesized low-pass filter demonstrated excellent agreement between simulated and measured performance, achieving a 7 GHz passband with over 20 dB suppression beyond 9.5 GHz. Electro-optical measurements, for the first time, revealed electric field patterns that resemble coupled transmission-lines or stub structures, providing insight into the emergent characteristics of AI-generated designs.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Net-Ev$^2$: A Generative Simulator for Network Event Evolution

arXiv:2606.12494v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reducing real-world trial and error has long been a central goal of decision making, and generative simulators advance this goal by modeling the evolution of future states. An even more challenging yet meaningful task is simulating how disturbance events (e.g., accidents) propagate their impacts across real-world networks. The existing approaches fall short of modeling both structured attributes and unstructured semantics of events, and capturing topological structures in simulating network event evolution. Therefore, we are motivated to propose Net-Ev$^2$ ($\underline{Net}$work $\underline{Ev}$ent $\underline{Ev}$olution), a novel generative simulator that jointly leverages event cues while preserving network topology in simulations. Specifically, the framework consists of two stages, namely structure-guided masked pre-training and topology-aware diffusion process, which is achieved by U-Net-like graph downsampling and upsampling during denoising. At inference time, Net-Ev$^2$ can generate simulations using natural-language event input only, with greater flexibility for practical usage. Furthermore, we introduce Net-Ev$^2$-6.5M, a multimodal benchmark of aligned event and network traffic data across four large-scale road networks, as well as a new topology-aware metric, namely JL-MMD, to evaluate topological fidelity in generated network dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance and strong generalization ability of Net-Ev$^2$. Code is made available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/Net-Ev-2.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Neural Posterior Estimation of Terrain Parameters from Radar Sounder Data

arXiv:2605.08179v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Radar sounders are electromagnetic instruments that can probe deep into the subsurface of Earth and other planetary bodies by processing the echo of transmitted radar waves. Conventional approaches for analyzing such data rely on approximate assumptions and often produce point estimates that ignore parameter correlations as well as galactic and measurement noise. We propose a simulation-based inference approach to terrain parameter inversion from radar sounder data, where synthetic observations from a GPU-based simulator are used to train a neural network-based density estimator for neural posterior estimation (NPE). By explicitly conditioning on reference surface assumptions, the proposed framework allows systematic evaluation of posterior robustness to reference surface variability. We demonstrate that our NPE model is well calibrated on simulated data and transferable to real Mars radar profiles, where we analyze terrain parameters using literature-informed reference values.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

An Attention Mechanism for Robust Multimodal Integration in a Global Workspace Architecture

arXiv:2602.08597v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Robust multimodal systems must remain effective when some modalities are noisy, degraded, or unreliable. Existing multimodal fusion methods often learn modality selection jointly with representation learning, making it difficult to determine whether robustness comes from the selector itself or from full end-to-end co-adaptation. Motivated by Global Workspace Theory (GWT), we study this question using a lightweight top-down modality selector operating on top of a frozen multimodal global workspace. We evaluate our method on two multimodal datasets of increasing complexity: Simple Shapes and MM-IMDb 1.0, under structured modality corruptions. The selector improves robustness while using far fewer trainable parameters than end-to-end attention baselines, and the learned selection strategy transfers better across downstream tasks, corruption regimes, and even to a previously unseen modality. Beyond explicit corruption settings, on the MM-IMDb 1.0 benchmark, we show that the same mechanism improves the global workspace over its no-attention counterpart and yields decent benchmark performance.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Review of Machine Learning Models for Solar Energetic Particle Prediction

arXiv:2606.19539v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events have attracted increasing attention due to their significant radiation hazards for aviation, spacecraft electronics, and human missions beyond Earth's magnetosphere. From a scientific perspective, SEP events are intriguing because they arise from a set of physical processes extending from the solar surface and corona through the heliosphere, offering insight into particle acceleration and transport mechanisms that are widely applicable across astrophysics. Therefore, advancing our ability to understand and predict SEP events is essential both for deepening our knowledge of such mechanisms and for safeguarding space technologies and exploration. Traditionally, researchers have modeled SEPs using physics-based simulations and empirical methods. More recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a new tool for understanding and predicting SEP events. The purpose of this manuscript is to review the currently available ML models for SEP prediction, identify the datasets used for training, compare their architectures, inputs, and outputs, and, based on these insights, outline good practices and recommendations for future research.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

SorryDB: Can AI Provers Complete Real-World Lean Theorems?

arXiv:2603.02668v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present SorryDB, a dynamically-updating benchmark of open Lean tasks drawn from 78 real world formalization projects on GitHub. Unlike existing static benchmarks, often composed of competition problems, hillclimbing the SorryDB benchmark will yield tools that are aligned to the community needs, more usable by mathematicians, and more capable of understanding complex dependencies. Moreover, by providing a continuously updated stream of tasks, SorryDB mitigates test-set contamination and offers a robust metric for an agent's ability to contribute to novel formal mathematics projects. We evaluate a collection of approaches, including generalist large language models, agentic approaches, and specialized symbolic provers, over a selected snapshot of 1000 tasks from SorryDB. We show that current approaches are complementary: even though an agentic approach based on Gemini Flash is the most performant, it is not strictly better than other off-the-shelf large-language models, specialized provers, or even a curated list of Lean tactics.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Vulcan: Instance-specialized, Verifiable Systems Heuristics Through LLM-driven Search

arXiv:2512.25065v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Systems resource management tasks rely primarily on hand-designed heuristics. However, growing hardware heterogeneity and workload diversity require heuristics specialized to particular deployment instances, making manual design expensive and difficult to scale. In this paper, we explore how to synthesize systems heuristics using LLMs. The main challenge is ensuring that generated heuristics execute safely, integrate correctly with the surrounding system, and still achieve strong performance. We propose Vulcan, a framework that identifies LLM-friendly interfaces that isolate core decision logic from the rest of the implementation. With Vulcan, LLM-generated code is restricted to simple stateless decision functions, while trusted runtime abstractions provide rich derived statistics for meaningful policy exploration without system-integration bugs. To ensure execution safety, LLMs synthesize heuristics in a restricted language, Anvil, that guarantees important properties by construction. We evaluate Vulcan across three well-studied domains and demonstrate up to 4.9x higher savings for spot-VM scheduling, up to 2x lower miss ratios for cache eviction, and up to 10% higher application performance for tiered-memory systems, while ensuring execution safety throughout.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systems

Accurately assessing model confidence is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in mission-critical factual domains. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is widely adopted to improve grounding, confidence calibration in RAG settings remains poorly understood. We conduct a systematic study across four benchmarks, revealing that LLMs exhibit poor calibration performance especially when noisy contexts are retrieved. Specifically, contradictory or irrelevant evidence tends to exacerbate the model's overconfidence issue. To address this, we propose NOVA Rules (NOise-Aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration Rules) to provide a principled foundation for resolving overconfidence under noise. We further design NOVA, a noise-aware calibration framework that synthesizes supervision from ~2K HotpotQA examples guided by these rules. By performing supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with this data, NOVA equips models with intrinsic noise awareness without relying on stronger teacher models. Empirical results show that NOVA yields substantial gains, improving ECE scores by 10.9% in-domain and 8.0% out-of-domain. By bridging the gap between retrieval noise and verbal calibration, NOVA paves the way for both accurate and epistemically reliable LLMs.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Reasoning Text-to-Video Retrieval for Operating Room Clips via Action-Driven Digital Twins

Text-to-video retrieval in operating rooms (OR) is an enabling technology for OR safety, as it allows stakeholders to retrieve and inspect recordings of specific events. However, because the most safety-critical events may not follow the common structure, to unlock its full potential text-to-video retrieval must be able to handle implicit queries that require reasoning to identify the right video (e.g., the step right before clipping). However, existing methods rely on global embeddings that cannot reason over such queries. We propose OR3, a text-to-video retrieval method that converts clips into action-driven digital twins (ActDTs), grouping concurrent subject-action-object triplets under non-overlapping temporal intervals. Moreover, rather than cross-modal matching through paired encoders, OR3 performs imagination-based retrieval where an LLM generates hypothetical ActDTs from queries. This enables intra-modal matching via a single encoder trained with ActDT-tailored hard negatives. Finally, evidence-grounded refinement revises imagined ActDTs based on discrepancies with top candidates to capture procedure-specific patterns. We construct a benchmark from MM-OR with 276 implicit queries across four reasoning categories over 386 clips from robotic knee procedures. OR3 achieves 57.6 R@1 and 77.3 R@5, outperforming the strongest baseline. These results demonstrate that OR3 enables fine-grained discrimination between visually similar OR video clips through temporal action reasoning.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Assessment of the accuracy of lung lesions diagnosis in adolescents with osteosarcoma using artificial intelligence

Background. Lung metastases in osteosarcoma (OS) are the main cause of the death. The accuracy of the diagnosis of nodules by computed tomography (CT) of the lungs is critically important for determining the disseminated stage of the disease and planning surgical treatment. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the search for lung nodules increases the accuracy of diagnosis and reduces the chance of missing metastases. Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of lung nodules diagnosis in adolescents with OS using AI. Methods. A retrospective assessment of CT scans of adolescents with OS was performed. A pathological nodule with an average size of [≥]4 mm was considered a target finding. The diagnostic accuracy of an AI algorithm previously trained on an adult dataset was evaluated, and the number of false positives (FP) and false negatives (FN) was determined. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, area under the ROC curve (AUC), positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1-measure were calculated. Based on the obtained results, the effectiveness of the algorithm was assessed. Results. 248 CT scans of adolescents with OS were evaluated. The following results were obtained: in 5 cases, the AI algorithm showed a FP result (2.02%), in 34 cases, it showed a FN result (13.71%), and in 209 cases, a correct result (both true positive and true negative) (84.27%). The diagnostic accuracy of the algorithm was 0.843 (95% CI 0.794-0.887). The application of the AI algorithm in the practice of an X-ray doctor in a specific clinical task would allow to increase the sensitivity from 0.805 to 0.891, while ensuring an absolute decrease in the number of FN results by 8.59% and a relative decrease by 44%. Conclusion. The obtained results confirm the practical value of the application of the AI algorithm and justify the implementation of AI-assisted systems in the diagnostic protocols for lung metastases in adolescents with OS.

17.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

DMcloud: Macromolecular Structure Modeling Using Local Structure Fitting for Medium to Low Resolution cryo-EM maps

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has become an essential experimental approach in structural biology for determining macromolecular structures. When the resolution of a cryo-EM map is worse than approximately 5[A], fitting known or predicted molecular models into the map becomes a common strategy for interpretation. However, accurately fitting biomolecular models into cryo-EM maps, particularly for large macromolecular complexes, remains challenging when the input structure models contain errors or are in a conformation different from that represented in the map. Here, we present DMcloud, a method for local structure fitting of proteins and nucleic acids in cryo-EM maps. Instead of forcing an entire input model into the map, DMcloud divides input structures into local regions, identifies regions that are supported by the density, removes unsupported regions, and assembles the retained regions into a final model. We benchmarked DMcloud on 176 cryo-EM maps, including intermediate and high-resolution maps that include proteins, DNAs, or RNAs. For EM maps in the 5.0-10.0 [A] and 2.5-5.0 [A] resolution ranges, DMcloud achieved average sequence modeling coverage of 0.49 and 0.70, respectively. For DNA/RNA maps, DMcloud achieved an average sequence coverage of 0.75. Across all datasets, DMcloud consistently outperformed existing methods in model accuracy, map-model correlation, and modeling coverage.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Multi-Agent Reasoning with Adaptive Worker Allocation for Stance Detection

Stance detection requires identifying an author's position toward a target, often from short-form texts where stance is implicit, indirect, or rhetorically framed. Although large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on this task, single-pass prompting can be brittle when multiple interpretations are plausible. Existing aggregation strategies, such as majority voting or self-consistency, improve robustness by combining labels, but they discard the intermediate reasoning needed to resolve conflicting interpretations. We introduce a multi-agent reasoning framework with adaptive worker allocation for stance detection that shifts aggregation from label-level voting to reasoning-level synthesis. The framework employs a Manager-Worker architecture in which a Manager adaptively allocates a variable number of Worker agents based on input complexity. Each Worker analyzes the input from a distinct perspective and produces a reasoning-only explanation without emitting a stance label; the Manager then synthesizes these explanations to produce the final prediction. We evaluate the proposed framework on SemEval-2016, P-Stance, and COVID-19 Stance using Llama, Mistral, and Gemini. Results show that the framework yields the largest gains on implicit and context-dependent stance cases, achieving 86.07 Macro-F1 on COVID-19 and 82.90 on SemEval-2016, while remaining competitive on more explicit stance datasets such as P-Stance. These findings suggest that adaptive reasoning-level aggregation is most beneficial when stance cannot be reliably inferred from surface cues alone.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

From Content to Knowledge: Lightning Fast Long-Video Understanding with Neural Knowledge Representations

We propose a new paradigm for long video understanding by treating a long video as a Neural Knowledge Representation (NKR). NKR represents video contents neither as a stream of tokens nor pre-organized databases, but as an individual small portion of network weights attached to the VLM backbone. The NKR weights are optimized to encapsulate the video's semantic content via a novel Agentic Knowledge Distillation (AKD) process, where an agent automatically synthesizes dense descriptions and question-answer pairs to distill the video's knowledge into the NKR. While AKD serves as a comprehensive, one-time encoding phase, the resulting NKR transforms the video into a portable, reusable asset. At inference, the lightweight NKR is mounted onto a frozen Vision-Language Model (VLM), enabling direct, query-based understanding without reloading or re-encoding the original video. This approach decouples video length from inference cost, offering high amortized efficiency for multi-turn video understanding. Experiments on the LVBench benchmark show our method achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art approaches while reducing end-to-end latency by over two orders of magnitude, opening new possibilities for interactive long-video understanding.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Improved Cryogenic Photodiode Optical Biasing for Low-Noise and Low-Jitter Superconducting Nanowire Single-Photon Detectors

arXiv:2606.07140v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We experimentally demonstrate an improved optical biasing scheme for superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs), which employs a cryogenic InGaAs-InP photodiode (PD) as a local bias source. It is found that, under illumination from a stable external light source, this PD generates a stable photocurrent in a cryogenic environment (~2.3 K), with fluctuations in the photocurrent primarily attributed to fluctuations in the incident optical power. Furthermore, by screening and effectively blocking stray photons leaking from the PD, which give rise to background dark counts, we have achieved an SNSPD exhibiting an ultra-low intrinsic dark count rate of 1e-4 cps. Utilizing this improved optical biasing technique, our SNSPD achieved performance comparable to that obtained under conventional electrical biasing: a system detection efficiency of 80.7%, a background dark count rate of 32.6 cps, and a minimum timing jitter of 57.5 ps. These results indicate that cryogenic-PD-based optical biasing serves as a viable, low-noise, and low-jitter alternative to traditional electrical biasing. Moreover, this work offers useful design guidance for the future development of PD-based low-noise bias sources and for the construction of all-photonic SNSPD systems tailored for high-precision quantum photonics applications.

24.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Deep learning four decades of human migration

Human migration is a fundamental driver of global demographic change, shaping population structure, labour markets and social policy across countries1–3. Although long-term migration patterns are often linked to economic development4, they can shift rapidly in response to shocks such as conflict, environmental crises and political change5. Despite its importance, migration remains difficult to measure consistently: existing data are sparse, concentrated in high-income settings and are fragmented across incompatible definitions, temporal resolutions and data types6–8. Past efforts have relied on partial datasets, including flow records, stock estimates and model-based reconstructions with limited coverage9–14. A central challenge is therefore to construct a globally consistent, high-resolution account of migration flows over time. Here we present a new dataset of annual origin-destination migration across 230 countries and regions from 1990 to the present, integrating diverse data sources into a unified modelling framework. By combining official statistics, census-based stocks, net migration estimates and past flow reconstructions, our approach produces temporally detailed and spatially comprehensive estimates that substantially extend existing resources. Using an ensemble of deep recurrent neural networks informed by geographic, economic, cultural and political covariates, we capture both persistent trends and short-term responses to changing conditions—all while propagating uncertainty to generate confidence bounds. Our results outperform existing five-year flow estimates on held-out data and provide finer temporal resolution, revealing previously obscured dynamics in global migration patterns. This framework highlights regions in which uncertainty remains high and data collection is most urgently needed. By releasing all data, code and trained models, we provide a transparent and reproducible foundation for future work. These advances enable a more timely and detailed understanding of human mobility, with implications for research and policy in an increasingly dynamic global system. A global annual migration-flow dataset (1990–2024) is produced using deep-learning models and diverse sources to estimate movements across 230 countries with improved temporal resolution, coverage and uncertainty estimates.

25.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Laws of Large Numbers for Non-Independent Random Variables on Hyperspaces with respect to the Hausdorff Metric

arXiv:2011.07199v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper investigates the limit behavior of the Minkowski sums for sequences of set-valued random variables. When the underlying space is finite dimensional, by using the support function, we establish the weak and strong laws of large numbers for non-independent random variables in the hyperspace with respect to the Hausdorff metric $d_H$.