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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Anti-Platelet Factor 4 Antibody Clonal Heterogeneity and MGUS Status in HIT

Background Monoclonal gammopathy of thrombotic significance (MGTS) is a recently described chronic prothrombotic condition characterized by monoclonal anti-PF4 antibodies that are detected above the polyclonal antibody background in patient sera (i.e. present as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, MGUS). Due to conflicting data in the published literature on antibody clonality in heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), we evaluated clonality and abundance of anti-PF4 antibodies in HIT, including investigating whether an MGUS, if present in HIT, represents the causative anti-PF4 antibody. Methods Blood samples from 15 patients with HIT were subject to Platelet Factor 4-dependent antigen-based and functional tests. The unmanipulated serum antibody repertoire and isolated anti-PF4 antibodies were subjected to mass spectrometric evaluation. Results Two of the 15 HIT patients had an IgG MGUS. Notably, anti-PF4 antibodies were not synonymous with the MGUS antibody in either of the two patients. Eight of the 15 patients demonstrated monoclonal anti-PF4 antibodies, however, none of the anti-PF4 antibodies were detectable as an MGUS upon evaluation of the entire serum antibody repertoire, reflecting their low abundance. In the seven patients with multiple anti-PF4 antibodies, non-monoclonality was confirmed by analysis of deglycosylated antibody heavy chains. Conclusions Anti-PF4 HIT antibodies are monoclonal in approximately 50% of HIT patients, however, antibody abundance is low such that they are not detectable over the polyclonal IgG background (i.e. are MGUS-negative), differentiating HIT from MGTS. This observation helps explain the transient nature of HIT relative to the persistent prothrombotic state seen in MGTS.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

First to reach $n$ game

arXiv:2506.08782v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider a game with two players, consisting of a number of rounds, where the first player to win $n$ rounds becomes the overall winner. Who wins each individual round is governed by a certain urn having two types of balls (type 1 and type 2). At each round, we randomly pick a ball from the urn, and its type determines which of the two players wins. We study the game under three regimes. In the first and the third regimes, a ball is taken without replacement, whilst in the second regime, it is returned to the urn with one more ball of the same colour. We study the properties of the random variables equal to the properly defined overall net profits of the players, and the results are drastically different in all three regimes.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Irresponsible AI: big tech's influence on AI research and associated impacts

arXiv:2512.03077v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The accelerated development, deployment and adoption of artificial intelligence systems has been fuelled by the increasing presence of big tech in the AI field. This trend has been accompanied by growing ethical concerns and intensified societal and environmental impacts. This position paper argues that irresponsible AI development is strongly driven by big tech's influence and involvement in the field. First, we examine the growing and disproportionate influence of big tech in AI research and argue that its drive for scaling and general-purpose systems is fundamentally at odds with the responsible, ethical, and sustainable development of AI. Second, we review key current environmental and societal negative impacts of AI and trace their connections to big tech's influence. Third, we discuss the underlying economic forces driving big tech's actions. Finally, as a call to action, we invite AI researchers to counter big tech's influence in irresponsible AI development through strategies that build on the responsibility of implicated actors and collective action.

04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Probabilities

arXiv:2601.18853v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Probabilities is the English translation of the book Probabilités Tome 1 and Tome 2. The mathematic content is authored by Prof. Jean-Yves Ouvrard. The English version has been done by his eldest son Dr. Xavier Ouvrard. This probability theory book covers not only an introduction to this field, but also advanced concepts based on measure theory. The first part introduces the fundamentals of probability theory across 7 chapters, targeting bachelor level, including event algebras, random variables, independence, conditional probabilities, moments of discrete and continuous random variables, generating functions, and limit theorems. The second part contains 10 chapters and corresponds to master level. Following a brief introduction to measure theory, this part develops more advanced topics: probability measures and their complements, distributions and moments of random variables, modes of convergence, laws of large numbers, conditional expectation, Fourier transforms and characteristic functions, Gaussian random variables, convergence of measures, convergence in distribution, discrete-time stochastic processes, martingales, and Markov chains. The reader's work is greatly facilitated by the inclusion, in every chapter, of numerous exercises, all accompanied by detailed solutions that often provide substantial extensions to the theoretical material.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Let's Ask Gauss: Improved One-Run Privacy Auditing

arXiv:2606.12733v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Privacy auditing provides an important safeguard by estimating the actual information leaked by a model, thus ensuring that theoretical privacy guarantees hold in practice. We study empirical privacy auditing for differentially private (DP) machine learning, focusing on efficient one-run methods for mechanisms such as DP-SGD. Prior one-run approaches threshold training examples or "canaries" into binary membership guesses, which discards useful information. We show that, in the white-box DP-SGD setting, canary-aligned signals naturally form a sequence of random variables whose normalized sum is asymptotically Gaussian. Leveraging this distributional perspective, we develop a DP-auditing framework that leads to tighter privacy lower bounds from a single training run.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Association between depressive symptoms and physical function among participants with heart disease in the Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study.

Background: Depression and heart disease frequently co-occur in the aging population and are associated with functional decline and poor health outcomes. Understanding how depressive symptoms relate to different aspects of physical function among adults with heart disease may help identify high-risk subgroups. Objective: To examine the association of depressive symptoms with self-reported and observed physical function measures among participants with heart disease in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study and assess whether associations differ by sex and race?sex groups. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from REGARDS study second in-home visit (2013?2016). Depressive symptoms were measured with the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES D 10), considering scores ?10 as clinically significant. Physical function measures were instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), activities of daily living (ADL), chair stand time (5 repetitions), and gait speed. Linear regression models estimated associations of depressive symptoms with function, adjusting for sociodemographic, health behavior, antidepressant medications, body mass index, and social support. Effect modification by sex and race?sex group was evaluated. Results: Among 3,055 participants, 11.7% had CES D 10 ?10. Compared to CES-D-10 scores

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

OmniTraffic: A Controllable Generation Pipeline and Benchmark for Spatio-Temporal Traffic Reasoning

Traffic scene understanding requires models to reason beyond object recognition, including lane topology, multi-view geometry, temporal evolution, and signal-phase semantics. However, existing traffic-oriented multimodal benchmarks largely emphasize passive visual recognition or isolated video understanding, offering limited support for evaluating structure-aware traffic reasoning under controlled conditions. We introduce OmniTraffic, a controllable generation pipeline and benchmark for spatio-temporal traffic reasoning. Built around 12 real-world intersections reconstructed into editable 3D traffic environments and complemented by surveillance footage from two countries, OmniTraffic supports both controlled and natural-condition evaluation. It defines a three-level task hierarchy spanning scene perception, multi-view and temporal reasoning, and decision support. Using structured traffic metadata, OmniTraffic generates synchronized multi-view VQA samples covering vehicle states, lane functions, view–BEV correspondence, temporal dynamics, and signal-phase analysis, resulting in 8M VQA samples and a 3K human-verified test set. Evaluation of eleven frontier MLLMs reveals a large human–model gap, with the most pronounced failures in topology-grounded and spatio-temporal reasoning tasks. Fine-tuning a lightweight MLLM on simulated OmniTraffic data further improves performance on real-world traffic scenes, demonstrating the value of simulation-generated supervision for traffic-specific multimodal reasoning. Beyond a fixed dataset, OmniTraffic provides an extensible pipeline with configurable intersections, camera views, traffic demands, signal phases, visual conditions, and rare events.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

\texttt{Range-Arithmetic}: Verifiable Deep Learning Inference on an Untrusted Party

arXiv:2505.17623v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Verifiable computing (VC) has gained prominence in decentralized machine learning systems, where resource-intensive tasks like deep neural network (DNN) inference are offloaded to external participants due to blockchain limitations. This creates a need to verify the correctness of outsourced computations without re-execution. We propose \texttt{Range-Arithmetic}, a novel framework for efficient and verifiable DNN inference that transforms non-arithmetic operations, such as rounding after fixed-point matrix multiplication and ReLU, into arithmetic steps verifiable using sum-check protocols and concatenated range proofs. Our approach avoids the complexity of Boolean encoding, high-degree polynomials, and large lookup tables while remaining compatible with finite-field-based proof systems. Experimental results show that our method not only matches the performance of existing approaches, but also reduces the computational cost of verifying the results, the computational effort required from the untrusted party performing the DNN inference, and the communication overhead between the two sides.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Stochastic trace estimation with tensor train random vectors

arXiv:2606.15679v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic trace estimation is a standard tool for approximating the trace of a large-scale matrix available only through matrix-vector products. However, in tensor-structured settings, unstructured Gaussian or Rademacher test vectors may be prohibitively expensive to store and compute with, while cheaper rank-one tensor-product vectors can require sample complexities that grow exponentially with the tensor order. This work studies Gaussian random tensor train vectors as a structured alternative for stochastic trace estimation. We show that, with a suitable choice of the tensor train rank, random tensor train vectors recover dimension-independent guarantees for the Girard–Hutchinson estimator. In particular, a median-of-means variant with tensor train rank $r \geq d-1$ achieves the same dependence on the accuracy $\varepsilon$ and failure probability $\delta$ as the classical estimator based on unstructured Gaussian vectors. We further prove an oblivious subspace injection result for sketches formed from independent Gaussian random tensor train vectors: tensor train rank $r\geq d-1$ and $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}(k+\log(1/\delta)))$ samples suffice for a $k$-dimensional target subspace. Finally, we investigate the use of such sketches within the Nystr\"{o}m++ framework. We show that the resulting estimator can achieve the desired $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ sample complexity under an additional spectral-tail condition. These results provide clarififcation on both the potential and the limitations of random tensor train vectors in stochastic trace estimation.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Embedded Arena: Iterative Optimization via Hardware Feedback

arXiv:2606.16190v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Embedded devices from wildlife monitoring stations to clinical wearables require local AI inference due to latency, communication, or privacy constraints. Optimizing models for heterogeneous microcontrollers (MCUs) requires simultaneously satisfying hard physical constraints on memory, power, and temperature while preserving accuracy, a multidimensional optimization that is today performed manually by experts. We ask whether an LLM agent can autonomously navigate this complex, multi-turn pipeline guided by real hardware feedback, and introduce a hardware-in-the-loop agent arena in which the agent iteratively refines both model and firmware – compiling, flashing, and measuring on real hardware – to enable closed-loop optimization. Frontier models, including Claude Opus 4.7 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, fail entirely without hardware feedback (0% deployment success), whereas our hardware-in-the-loop formulation achieves the first successful deployment within three iterations and can surpass human expert results within seven. This agentic co-optimization achieves 250x compression for vision models with

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Parameter-Efficient Adapter Tuning for Tabular-Image Multimodal Learning

Authors:

Tabular-image multimodal learning aims to improve predictive modeling by jointly using structured tabular attributes and visual data. Although pretrained encoders provide strong modality-specific representations, full fine-tuning can be computationally expensive, while keeping encoders frozen may limit task-specific adaptation. We propose the Tabular-Image Adapter (TI-Adapter), a modality-specific adapter-based fine-tuning framework for efficient multimodal adaptation. TI-Adapter freezes the pretrained tabular encoder and learns an adapter after the extracted tabular embedding, while adapting the image branch with embedding-level and bottleneck-level adapters instead of full fine-tuning. Experiments on 20 tabular-image datasets show that TI-Adapter achieves competitive or better predictive performance than full fine-tuning while using substantially fewer trainable parameters. Ablation studies further demonstrate the importance of adapter placement for balancing performance and practical efficiency.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Curiosity-Critic: Cumulative Prediction Error Improvement as a Tractable Intrinsic Reward for World Model Training

arXiv:2604.18701v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it admits a tractable per-step surrogate: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this error baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; since the critic only has to learn how hard a transition is to predict, its estimate of the irreducible noise floor converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward zero for stochastic ones, thereby separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this error baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error, visitation-count, and Random Network Distillation methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Helping Figures Tell their Story! Paper-Grounded Video Generation Explaining Complex Scientific Figures

Scientific figures compress complex pipelines into a single canvas, yet understanding them requires paper-grounded, step-by-step narration aligned with visual highlights a capability missing from current video generation systems and benchmarks. To address this, we introduce paper-grounded figure-to-video generation: generating narrated, region-grounded walkthrough videos from a figure and its paper. We propose MINARD (Multimodal Interpretation of Narrated Architecture via Region Decomposition), a pipeline that generates paper-grounded narrations and sequentially grounds them to figure regions. We also release FigTalk, a benchmark with new sequential and component-level grounding metrics derived. On FigTalk, MINARD generates humanlike, paper-faithful narrations and outperforms narration-conditioned figure spatial grounding compared to existing approaches in both automatic and human evaluation

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

LoRA-Muon: Spectral Steepest Descent on the Low-Rank Manifold

arXiv:2606.12921v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) significantly reduces compute and memory costs for finetuning Deep Learning models but is often harder to tune than dense training: when using factor-wise optimizers such as AdamW, it is sensitive to initialization choices, its optimal learning rates transfer poorly across ranks, and it often fails to beat dense baselines. We derive LoRA-Muon by applying the Muon optimizer's spectral steepest-descent rule to the low-rank setting. Along with our split weight-decay rule, our main claim is that LoRA-Muon is a good low-rank proxy for full-rank Muon and Shampoo-family optimizers. Its optimal learning rates transfer across rank, width, depth, and factor-rescaling. In our compute-matched TinyShakespeare study, a rank-$2$ proxy recovers the dense best tested learning rate, and a rank-$32$ LoRA-Muon run attains lower mean validation loss than the dense baseline in the seed-averaged sweep. We further show that the Spectron optimizer depends on arbitrary factor scaling, so it would likely be a poor fit when finetuning starts from badly imbalanced factors, and that LoRA-RITE's simplified QR-coordinate core implements the same spectral update. LoRA-Muon computes that update without QR-decomposition and avoids storing second moments, making it more accelerator-friendly and memory-efficient.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

SED:Lightweight Saliency prediction for Event-based data via Distillation

Event-based saliency prediction has gained attention recently, as combining event cameras with saliency estimation can act as an upstream stage that naturally improves the efficiency of downstream eventbased perception at the edge. However, current approaches are either neuromorphic, underperforming on event-based saliency benchmarks, or too heavy for resource-constrained edge applications due to their reliance on transformers or 3D convolutions. Drawing inspiration from efficient convolutional modules, SED and aiming to exploit the temporal information in event data, we propose a lightweight network, trained through knowledge distillation, built on a Depthwise Spatio-Temporal Block (DSTconv) – a factorization of the 3D depthwise separable convolution. Relative to its teacher, our model reduces the model size from 180 MB to 0.32 MB (562x) and the parameter count from 45M to 81k (554x), while matching or outperforming it on the N-DHF1K and N-UCF Sports datasets. Moreover, it generalizes strongly beyond its training distribution, transferring from synthetic to real event data where a model trained from scratch fails.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

A polynomial-time approximation scheme for minimum-weight decoding of topological codes

arXiv:2606.18145v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two-dimensional topological translationally invariant (2D TTI) stabilizer codes lie at the heart of fault-tolerant quantum computation, but using them requires solving the decoding problem. Minimum-weight decoding of these codes was recently shown to be NP-hard, even in basic settings, such as the color code with Pauli $Z$ errors and the toric code with Pauli $X$, $Y$ and $Z$ errors. Here, we prove that minimum-weight decoding of 2D TTI codes nonetheless admits a polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS), i.e., for any constant $\varepsilon>0$, a recovery operator of weight within a multiplicative factor of $1+\varepsilon$ of the minimum can be found in polynomial time. Our approach builds on Arora's PTAS for Euclidean problems, such as the traveling salesman problem, and applies when decoding can be cast in terms of point-like excitations connected by string-like errors. It therefore extends beyond two dimensions, covering certain higher-dimensional topological codes and quantum memories, including the toric code with phenomenological or circuit-level noise.

17.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-15

Fung-AI: An AI/ML-driven pipeline for antifungal peptide discovery

by Daniel S. Berman, Libby M. Lewis, Tom D. Curtis, Olivia N. Tiburzi, Daniel F. Q. Smith, Arturo Casadevall, Laura J. Dunphy Emerging fungal pathogens represent a concerning threat to both global health and food security. In this study, we aimed to address our rising vulnerability to fungal pathogens through the development of the Fung-AI pipeline: an AI/ML-driven approach for antifungal discovery. A generative adversarial network (GAN) was trained to generate novel candidate antifungal peptide sequences. Next, in silico antifungal and hemolytic classifiers were built to further prioritize AI-generated peptides for experimental validation. From a pool of ~10,000 candidates, thirteen peptides were selected for testing over two-stages of experimentation. Five peptides were found to display mild antifungal activity against the wheat pathogen, Fusarium graminearum, with minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) ranging from 250 µg/mL to 500 µg/mL. Four of the five peptides also showed activity against the human pathogen, Candida albicans (MIC: 500 µg/mL). Two of our AI-generated antifungal peptides additionally demonstrated low cytotoxicity in HepG2 human liver carcinoma cells (LC50 > 704.2 µg/mL) indicating that they may be useful as scaffolds for future optimization for therapeutic applications. None of our peptides were found to considerably inhibit the emerging pathogen C. auris, suggesting the need for pathogen-specific down-selection of candidate peptides. Overall, we present a proof-of-principle, generative-AI-based approach for the rapid design of de novo antifungal peptides.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Power-law hypothesis and (un)fairness of PageRank on undirected multi-type PAMs

arXiv:2606.19583v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The preferential attachment model (PAM) describes the sequential growth of a network based on the "rich-get-richer" principle. Several versions of it have become established for modeling, e.g., citation networks, capturing a power-law degree distribution. Directed versions of the preferential attachment model where the edges are directed from the new to the old vertices have been the subject of extensive research. They have been shown to exhibit remarkable properties such as heavier tails for the limiting graph-normalized PageRank than for the in-degrees. By contrast, for the undirected version, we recently showed that PageRank has similar tails as the degree. In the present paper, we discuss the PageRank asymptotics for a multi-type version of the undirected PAM (here vertices have different colors), complementing previous results of Antunes, Bhamidi, Banerjee and Pipiras on the asymptotics of PageRank on similar directed multi-type or colored PAMs. Our studies are motivated by the aim to go beyond the rigid rule of edge orientation in directed preferential attachment models. As the main result, for the case of a finite set of colors, we show that the power-law hypothesis for PageRank is fulfilled also for the colored undirected PAM, where, by contrast to the directed case, the power-law exponent is color-dependent for some choices of the initial color distribution and the attractiveness function. For the specific case of a two-type model, we discuss implications of our results on fairness in sampling underrepresented nodes from the network.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-14

TopoMIL: Topology Improves Multiple Instance Learning in Diagnostic Microscopic Images

Microscopic images of cells and tissues are central to disease diagnosis. In computational pathology, multiple instance learning (MIL) has emerged as a key paradigm for analyzing numerous images within a single patient sample. While the representative distribution of cells in a sample is important for diagnosis, existing MIL frameworks largely overlook it. We introduce TopoMIL, a framework that extracts the representative topological structure of the sample and integrates it into the MIL classifier. Three topological representations are assessed, each with distinct advantages and computational costs. We evaluate TopoMIL on four histopathology and cytomorphology datasets, each presenting unique challenges. Integrating the sample's topological information into MIL enhances classification across average, max, attention-based, and transformer pooling, yielding AUCROC gains of 3.3%, 4.2%, 5.9%, and 0.5%, respectively, with moderate computational cost. Our work underscores the potential of TopoMIL as a scalable extension to existing morphology-based models in computational pathology.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Position: The Systemic Lack of Agency in Visual Reasoning

This paper argues that a systemic lack of Agency constrains the implicit reasoning capabilities of current Vision-Language Models (VLMs). Implicit reasoning refers to the ability to autonomously discover and utilize hidden visual evidence to bridge information gaps, rather than merely relying on explicitly specified targets. This capacity underlies human visual understanding and everyday reasoning. We argue that this limitation arises from a tendency to approach visual reasoning primarily as passive semantic retrieval, rather than as active, situated reasoning that depends on autonomous visual exploration. As a result, most existing benchmarks primarily assess Passive Capacity, leaving this aspect of reasoning largely unmeasured. To address this gap, we introduce the Visual Implicit Reasoning Diagnosing Benchmark (V-IRD), which targets this missing quadrant by requiring models to derive answers strictly through autonomous visual analysis. Our results show that, despite strong retrieval abilities, prominent VLMs struggle to utilize reference objects and to attend to visual evidence that requires self-directed inquiry. Simply put, strong semantic recognition does not equate to active visual exploration, revealing a critical gap in current VLMs. More information can be found at https://haoychen.github.io/Implicit-Reasoning/

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

AutoMine Solution for AV2 2026 Scenario Mining Challenge

arXiv:2606.11874v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: With the development of autonomous driving systems, mining high-value, safety-critical, and planning-relevant scenarios from large-scale driving logs has become essential for data-driven evaluation. In this paper, we propose AutoMine, a robust self-refining scenario mining method based on LLMs and VLMs. AutoMine uses semantics-preserving prompt augmentation to reduce LLM prompt sensitivity, combines robust trajectory atomic functions with VLM-based functions to handle perception noise and open-world visual cues, and refines generated code through execution feedback from real logs. In the Argoverse 2 Scenario Mining Competition at CVPR 2026, AutoMine achieves a HOTA-Temporal score of 36.38 and a Timestamp BA score of 77.21.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Implicit Variational Rejection Sampling

arXiv:2606.14235v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Variational Inference (VI) is a fundamental inference technique in Bayesian machine learning for approximating complex posterior distributions. Traditional VI often relies on the mean-field factorization, which can inadequately capture true posterior complexity. Recent advancements have leveraged neural networks to model implicit distributions, offering increased flexibility. However, the practical constraints of neural network architectures still produces inaccuracies. In this paper, we propose a method called Implicit Variational Rejection Sampling (IVRS), which integrates implicit distributions with rejection sampling to improve the posterior approximation. Our method uses neural networks to construct implicit proposal distributions, and rejection sampling with a discriminator network that estimates the density ratio between the implicit proposal and the true posterior for refining the approximation. Towards this end, we introduce the Implicit Resampling Evidence Lower Bound (IR-ELBO) as a metric to characterize the resampled distribution's quality and derive a tighter variational lower bound. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional variational inference techniques.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Presurgical immune biomarkers associated with pain intensity and pain interference recovery after total knee arthroplasty: findings from the PRIME-KNEE study

Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) prevalence after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is >20%. Circulating immune biomarkers are known factors of musculoskeletal pain but poorly understood as CPSP predictors. This prospective, longitudinal study of 203 patients s/p TKA tested presurgical plasma biomarkers associated with 6-month CPSP, using promising approaches from geriatrics biomarker research: expected recovery differential (ERD; resilience outcome) and penalized, machine-learning regularization modeling (elastic net and LASSO regression). Forty-nine presurgical candidate biomarkers were considered. CPSP was operationalized using ERDs built around PROMIS pain intensity and pain interference, which quantified the difference between observed and expected recovery after accounting for demographic, comorbidity, reserve, and perioperative factors. Plasma/ERDs from ~130 patients revealed 13 biomarkers with the highest selection stability criteria, and either positive or negative (+/-) associations with ERDs. Interleukin (IL) 5 (-) and Lipopolysaccharide-Binding Protein (LBP; +) were associated with both ERDs. Unique associations with pain intensity ERD included Cytomegalovirus-Specific IgG Negative (CMV IGg-; -), Macrophage Inflammatory Protein-1 Beta (MIP1b; -), IL12p70 (-, Cluster of Differentiation 30 (sCD30;-), Interferon alpha 2a (IFN2a;+), and Leukemia Inhibitory Factor (LIF;+). Unique associations with pain interference ERD included Lipopolysaccharide (LPS;-), Activin A (-), IL8 (-), Serum Amyloid A (SAA;-), and IL7 (+). Protein-protein interaction analyses and topology motifs suggest a centralized network with higher-than-expected connectivity, involving IL5, IL7, IL8, MIP1{beta}, and IFN2a, among others. This study proposes rigorous yet feasible approaches to expedite pain biomarker research, and introduces presurgical biomarkers t0 consider in future TKA-CPSP biosignature derivation.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Program Evaluation with Remotely Sensed Outcomes

arXiv:2411.10959v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study causal inference in experiments and quasi-experiments, where the economic outcome is imperfectly measured by a remotely sensed variable. The remotely sensed variable is low-cost, scalable, and predictive of the economic outcome in observational data; examples include satellite imagery and mobile phone activity. We model the remotely sensed variable as post-outcome: variation in the economic outcome causes variation in the remotely sensed variable. For example, changes in environmental quality cause changes in satellite imagery, not vice versa. Under this assumption, we propose a formula to nonparametrically identify the causal parameter by combining experimental and observational data. We develop a method for n^{-1/2} inference that is robust to misspecification and that does not restrict the algorithms used to process remotely sensed variables.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Forecasting what Matters: Decision-Focused RL for Controlled EV Charging with Unknown Departure Times

arXiv:2606.19199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The recent growth of EV adoption poses challenges for power systems, including increased peak demand and potential grid instability. Smart control of EV charging – e.g., based on reinforcement learning (RL) – can alleviate these issues by learning temporal and contextual patterns from historical data. Yet, in real-world scenarios, key features, such as departure time, often are unavailable. This, in turn, makes it harder for an RL agent to learn and execute an effective charging policy. To mitigate this uncertainty, a trained forecaster can approximate the unknown features from available data. However, since these forecasting models are typically trained for accuracy (rather than their impact on a downstream agent's decision quality), their errors may propagate and hinder the overall performance of a controller that is using the forecasts. To avoid this, we propose a decision-focused RL (DF-RL) framework in which the forecaster is trained end-to-end, i.e., with feedback from the charging policy actions taken by the RL agent. Such joint training of both the forecaster and controller ultimately results in higher-quality actions: our proposed DF-RL method yields superior charging decisions compared to other baselines, achieving up to a 14% improvement in total reward and a 55% reduction of unsupplied energy (i.e., charging that failed to happen because the EV already left), relative to the RL method without departure time forecasting.