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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Evaluation Metrics as Averaged Outcomes of Fair Gambles

arXiv:2401.14483v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In the current practices of machine learning, the evaluation of forecasts has become a cornerstone of scientific progress. A multitude of evaluation metrics have been suggested and used to qualify "good" forecasts. What do those metrics share? How are they related? In this work, we use a protocol borrowed from game-theoretic probability to show that a large part of evaluation metrics can be viewed as averaged outcomes of fair gambles. Intuitively, a fair gambler is one which a forecaster would expect to fail. Hence, the gambler's ability to gain disproves the quality of the forecast. Standard evaluation metrics are then variants of choices of such fair gambles. In particular, this choice is structured along two dimensions, one of which separates calibration-type and regret-type metrics. In particular, this framework sheds light on the relationship of calibration and regret showing a theoretical equivalence in their ability to evaluate when being scaled appropriately, but the incomparability of obtained scores.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Learning Patterns and Abstractions from Perceptual Sequences

作者:

arXiv:2503.10973v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cognition swiftly breaks high-dimensional sensory streams into familiar parts and uncovers their relations. Why do structures emerge, and how do they enable learning, generalization, and prediction? What computational principles underlie this core aspect of perception and intelligence? A sensory stream, simplified, is a one-dimensional sequence. In learning such sequences, we naturally segment them into parts – a process known as chunking. In the first project, I investigated factors influencing chunking in a serial reaction time task and showed that humans adapt to underlying chunks while balancing speed and accuracy. Building on this, I developed models that learn chunks and parse sequences chunk by chunk. Normatively, I proposed chunking as a rational strategy for discovering recurring patterns and nested hierarchies, enabling efficient sequence factorization. Learned chunks serve as reusable primitives for transfer, composition, and mental simulation – letting the model compose the new from the known. I demonstrated this model's ability to learn hierarchies in single and multi-dimensional sequences and highlighted its utility for unsupervised pattern discovery. The second part moves from concrete to abstract sequences. I taxonomized abstract motifs and examined their role in sequence memory. Behavioral evidence suggests that humans exploit pattern redundancies for compression and transfer. I proposed a non-parametric hierarchical variable model that learns both chunks and abstract variables, uncovering invariant symbolic patterns. I showed its similarity to human learning and compared it to large language models. Taken together, this thesis suggests that chunking and abstraction as simple computational principles enable structured knowledge acquisition in hierarchically organized sequences, from simple to complex, concrete to abstract.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

daVinci-kernel: Co-Evolving Skill Selection, Summarization, and Utilization via RL for GPU Kernel Optimization

GPU kernel optimization represents a paradigm where functional correctness is assumed and execution efficiency is the objective. We present daVinci-kernel, a reinforcement learning framework that couples skill discovery with skill exploitation through a dynamically evolving skill library. daVinci-kernel jointly trains three agents sharing one LLM backbone: a Skill Selection Agent that retrieves relevant techniques via BM25 and LLM reranking, a Policy Agent that generates multi-turn CUDA/Triton kernels conditioned on selected skills, and a Skill Summary Agent that distills successful rollouts into reusable skills. Candidate skills are added only after execution-based verification confirms reproducible speedups. All three agents share a single LLM backbone, are initialized via a structured SFT cold start on diversity-filtered data, and are then jointly optimized end-to-end with multi-turn REINFORCE and per-agent advantage estimation. On KernelBench, daVinci-kernel-14B achieves 37.2%, 70.6%, and 32.2% on Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 under the Fast$_1$ threshold, outperforming the strongest prior RL-trained model, Dr.Kernel-14B.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Impact of Antidiabetic Medications on IgG and Plasma Protein N-Glycosylation in Type 2 Diabetes Patients

Introduction. Diabetes is a growing global health challenge, necessitating effective management strategies. Glycosylation, a highly regulated post-translational protein modification, has emerged as a pivotal factor in diabetes pathophysiology. However, the modulation of protein glycosylation by antidiabetic treatment is still largely unknown. This study explored the longitudinal effects of four distinct antidiabetic therapies - metformin, insulin, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) - on plasma protein and immunoglobulin G (IgG) glycosylation in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Research Design and Methods. Plasma protein and IgG N-glycans were enzymatically released, purified and chromatographically profiled in a cohort of 124 patients, examined at four time points, to assess therapy-induced glycan alterations. Linear mixed models adjusting for covariates and multiple testing (FDR

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

ICA Lens: Interpreting Language Models Without Training Another Dictionary

Finding interpretable directions in language-model representations is critical for understanding and controlling model behavior. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have become the standard tool for this purpose, but using them as the default first lens often requires training, storing, and evaluating large overcomplete dictionaries. This bottleneck limits rapid exploration and raises a fundamental question: how much interpretable structure is already visible from activation geometry before training another neural dictionary? Our intuition is simple: many interpretable directions are selective on tokens, and these directions should look less Gaussian than random directions. We therefore revisit independent component analysis (ICA), a classical method for finding non-Gaussian directions, as a compact lens for language-model interpretability. We find that ICA has been underestimated for LLM interpretability, because prior uses often relied on off-the-shelf ICA implementations that are brittle on LLM activations and lacked systematic tools for inspecting and evaluating the recovered directions. To bridge these gaps, we introduce ICALens, the first practical workflow for stable, efficient, and auditable ICA analysis of LLM representations. It combines an optimized GPU-parallel FastICA pipeline with LLM-specific stability recipes and better fitting diagnostics, enabling efficient and reliable layer-wise analysis. Across GPT-2 Small, Gemma 2 2B, and Qwen 3.5 2B Base, ICALens efficiently recovers compact, human-interpretable directions without per-layer gradient-based dictionary training. On SAEBench, ICA is competitive with public SAEs in sparse probing and outperforms them in targeted probe perturbation under small-to-medium budgets. These results suggest that ICA should not be viewed as a weak baseline, but as an efficient and complementary first lens for exploring language-model representations.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

When Retrieval Metrics Mislead: Measuring Policy Signal in Long-Horizon Tool-Use Agents

Exact-match retrieval recall is often used as a proxy for whether a retriever supplies useful policy context to a downstream decision model. We test this proxy for pre-action policy classification in tau-bench using Qwen2.5-3B/7B classifiers. Under gold-policy conditioning, a compact structured state improves macro-F1 over raw trajectories by 0.13-0.17 after tuning. We then replace the benchmark-designated policy clause with the top-ranked clause retrieved from decision-time context. Although the exact governing clause is retrieved at rank 1 for only 7% of airline states, the primary 3B classifier obtains macro-F1 0.58 with retrieved clauses versus 0.60 with gold clauses (Delta=-0.02, task-cluster 95% CI [-0.23,+0.21]); mismatched-policy and no-policy controls score 0.32 and 0.21. We do not detect a macro-F1 difference between retrieved and gold clauses in this configuration, although the interval remains too wide to establish non-inferiority. The same qualitative pattern appears with a second retriever and at 7B, while varying across fine-tuning configurations. These results indicate that exact-match clause recall can underestimate downstream policy utility in this benchmark setting, motivating evaluation with retrieved policies in the classification loop rather than recall alone.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Quantifying and detecting quantum-state texture

arXiv:2604.07257v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantum-state texture is a recently proposed quantum resource that characterizes the inhomogeneity of a quantum state's matrix element distribution in the computational basis, enriching our understanding of quantum state structure. To expand its quantification toolkit and establish detection methods, in this article, we investigate the resource theory of texture from both quantitative and detection perspectives. First, we construct a texture measure $\mathcal{T}^{GR}_{\alpha,z}(\rho)$ based on the $\alpha$-$z$ Rényi relative entropy and present some of its inherent properties. Second, we analyze the mathematical relationships between several existing texture measures, revealing connections among different quantifiers. Finally, drawing on the witness concept from other resource theories, we systematically introduce texture witnesses into the texture theory and provide examples of texture witnesses with special properties.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

FENCE: A Financial and Multimodal Jailbreak Detection Dataset

Jailbreaking poses a significant risk to the deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). VLMs are particularly vulnerable because they process both text and images, creating broader attack surfaces. However, available resources for jailbreak detection are scarce, particularly in finance. To address this gap, we present FENCE, a bilingual (Korean-English) multimodal dataset for training and evaluating jailbreak detectors in financial applications. FENCE emphasizes domain realism through finance-relevant queries paired with image-grounded threats. Experiments with commercial and open-source VLMs reveal consistent vulnerabilities, with GPT-4o showing measurable attack success rates and open-source models displaying greater exposure. A baseline detector trained on FENCE achieves 99 percent in-distribution accuracy and maintains strong performance on external benchmarks, underscoring the dataset's robustness for training reliable detection models. FENCE provides a focused resource for advancing multimodal jailbreak detection in finance and for supporting safer, more reliable AI systems in sensitive domains. Warning: This paper includes example data that may be offensive.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Universal Manipulation Exoskeleton: Learning Compliant Whole-body Policies with Real-time Torque Feedback

arXiv:2606.14218v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For robots to work safely in household environments, they need to be compliant and react to torque and force feedback during contact. However, the majority of existing data collection pipelines still lack the ability to capture force and torque data for learning active compliant policies. In this paper, we present Universal Manipulation Exoskeleton (UME), an upper-limb exoskeleton that provides real-time haptic torque feedback while recording whole-arm configurations and joint torque signals for teleoperation. With transparent torque feedback, human operators can even unsheathe kinematically constrained objects while blindfolded. UME is low-cost, lightweight, and portable. Equipped with an embedded IMU, it enables teleoperation for mobile manipulation. With our proposed universal retargeting algorithm, UME can teleoperate a range of robots, including the 7DoF OpenArm, 7DoF Franka, and 6DoF X-ARM. We demonstrate that this combination of capabilities enables learning bimanual, whole-body, and active compliant policies that operate effectively in highly constrained spaces. The learned robust autonomous policies achieve high success rates across a variety of tasks, including long-horizon mobile manipulation, force-mediated box flipping, visually occluded box pushing, and space-constrained tabletop manipulation. Videos, code, and additional information can be found at https://ume-exo.github.io.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Skeleton Sparsification and Densification Scale-Spaces

The Hamilton-Jacobi skeleton, also known as the medial axis, is a powerful shape descriptor that represents binary objects in terms of the centres of maximal inscribed discs. Despite its broad applicability, the medial axis suffers from sensitivity to noise: Minor boundary variations can lead to disproportionately large and undesirable expansions of the skeleton. Classical pruning methods mitigate this shortcoming by systematically removing extraneous skeletal branches. This sequential simplification of skeletons resembles the principle of sparsification scale-spaces that embed images into a family of reconstructions from increasingly sparse pixel representations. We combine both worlds by introducing skeletonisation scale-spaces: They leverage sparsification of the medial axis to achieve hierarchical simplification of shapes. Unlike conventional pruning, our framework inherently satisfies key scale-space properties such as hierarchical architecture, controllable simplification, and equivariance to geometric transformations. We provide a rigorous theoretical foundation in both continuous and discrete formulations and extend the concept further with densification. By growing the skeleton successively instead of shrinking it, we allow inverse progression from coarse to fine scales. Densification scale-spaces can even reach beyond the original skeleton to produce overcomplete shape representations with relevancy for practical applications. Through proof-of-concept experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework for practical tasks including robust skeletonisation, shape compression, and stiffness enhancement for additive manufacturing.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Information bottleneck for learning the phase space of dynamics from high-dimensional experimental data

arXiv:2604.24662v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Identifying the dynamical state variables of a system from high-dimensional observations is a central problem across physical sciences. The challenge is that the state variables are not directly observable and must be inferred from raw high-dimensional data without supervision. Here we introduce DySIB (Dynamical Symmetric Information Bottleneck) as a method to learn low-dimensional representations of time-series data by maximizing predictive mutual information between past and future observation windows while penalizing representation complexity. This objective operates entirely in latent space and avoids reconstruction of the observations. We apply DySIB to an experimental video dataset of a physical pendulum, where the underlying state space is known. The method, with hyperparameters of the learning architecture set self-consistently by the data, recovers a two-dimensional representation that matches the dimensionality, topology, and geometry of the pendulum phase space, with the learned coordinates aligning smoothly with the canonical angle and angular velocity. These results demonstrate, on a well-characterized experimental system, that predictive information in latent space can be used to recover interpretable dynamical coordinates directly from high-dimensional data.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Probing, Fusion, and Trustworthiness: A Systematic Evaluation of Foundation Model Representations for Multimodal Cancer Analysis

arXiv:2606.17115v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foundation models (FMs) have emerged as powerful representation extractors for medical data, yet their generalizability to datasets under distribution shift remains underexplored. This work systematically evaluates FM-based representations on a suite of computational pathology tasks across two real-world commercial cohorts, IH-BC and IH-NSCLC, drawn from the licensed in-house (IH) oncology dataset. The analysis focuses on two modalities, whole-slide images and transcriptomic profiles, drawn from the IH multimodal data. We first benchmark unimodal probing performance across five FMs on eight downstream classification tasks, and find that image and omics representations carry complementary predictive signals. Then we investigate whether multimodal fusion can yield additional gains over unimodal baselines by comparing three image-omics fusion strategies built on paired representations. The trustworthiness of selected unimodal and multimodal pipelines is further assessed through conformal prediction. Our results show that FM representations achieve competitive performance on out-of-distribution data and that multimodal fusion helps mainly when no single modality dominates the signal. Conformal prediction reveals that in the majority of cases where a point prediction fails, the true diagnosis remains recoverable within the prediction set, reinforcing the value of uncertainty-aware inference for clinical support.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Transformation-driven generation of comparable projection images from multimodal anatomical scenes

This work addresses the computational problem of generating reproducible projection-space observations from heterogeneous anatomical scenes whose components may undergo independent spatial transformations. We propose a transformation-driven framework for synthetic projection imaging from multimodal anatomical data and demonstrate it on mandibular-motion scenarios. In contrast to conventional Digitally Reconstructed Radiograph (DRR) approaches primarily designed for registration, projection realism, or rendering efficiency, the proposed formulation treats projection imaging as an observation process operating on an explicitly represented anatomical scene. Independently transformable volumetric and surface-based anatomical objects are embedded within a shared scene representation and propagated directly into projection space through explicit transformations. Projection geometry, acquisition modelling, material interpretation, and image presentation remain explicitly separated, enabling controlled exploration of methodological assumptions while preserving reproducibility and direct comparability between generated projections. Particular emphasis is placed on transformation-driven anatomical scenarios relevant to craniofacial analysis, including mandibular motion and therapeutic repositioning. Using a shared anatomical reference scene composed of CT/CBCT volumes, segmented structures, surface models, and auxiliary anatomical or therapeutic objects, the framework enables generation of directly comparable VirtualRTG projections from multiple anatomical configurations while preserving identical imaging assumptions. Rather than aiming at fully physically faithful radiographic simulation, the proposed approach provides a controllable and reproducible methodological environment for studying anatomy–projection relationships, motion observability, and transformation-aware imaging workflows.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Systematic Exploration of 4-Expert Heterogeneous Mixture-of-Experts via Automated Pipeline Search

We present an automated large-scale search pipeline for heterogeneous 4-Expert Mixture-of-Experts (MoE4) architectures within the LEMUR neural network dataset ecosystem. Building on a hand-crafted heterogeneous MoE reference model, we replace manual design with a deterministic code-assembly generator that systematically combines base architecture families drawn from the LEMUR database into MoE4 ensembles, each governed by a convolutional gating network with temperature scaling, mixup augmentation, and cosine-annealed learning rate scheduling. Over a 28-day campaign on an NVIDIA RTX 4090, the pipeline generated 4,463 candidate models across 197 batches, of which 1,021 were evaluated successfully. A critical finding emerged from the campaign: due to alphabetical enumeration via itertools.combinations, the entire explored search space (4.8% of the theoretical 23,751 possible 4-family combinations) is anchored to a single family, AirNet. We characterise this coverage bias precisely, identify the root cause in the generator, and propose a stratified random sampling fix. Within the AirNet anchored scope, ShuffleNet and MobileNetV3 consistently co-produce the highest-accuracy ensembles (mean accuracy up to 0.632), while FractalNet and MNASNet are identified as low-yield families warranting exclusion in future campaigns. The pipeline, analysis artefacts, and corrected generator are released as part of the open-source NNGPT project at https://github.com/ABrain-One/nn-gpt

16.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-12

General-purpose large language models outperform specialized clinical AI tools on medical benchmarks

Specialized clinical artificial intelligence (AI) tools are entering medical practice despite scarce independent evaluation. We quantitatively evaluate two clinical AI tools, OpenEvidence and UpToDate Expert AI, built on large language models (LLMs) against three frontier LLMs: GPT-5.2, Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus 4.6. Our evaluation has three stages: (1) 500 MedQA questions testing medical knowledge, (2) 500 HealthBench items measuring alignment with clinicians and (3) the real clinical queries (RCQ) benchmark, built from 100 de-identified queries from physicians to a general-purpose language model in a live clinical environment. For the RCQ benchmark, 12 US clinicians performed randomized, blinded review of model outputs, producing 1,800 model–question annotations. Frontier LLMs outperformed clinical AI tools in all three evaluations. Clinical AI tools performed comparably to auto-enabled Google Search AI Overview on the RCQ. These findings highlight the need for independent, real-world evaluation of AI tools before they enter clinical settings. In an independent evaluation, frontier large language models outperformed specialized clinical artificial intelligence tools on medical knowledge, clinician alignment and real-world clinical queries.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

ThinkDeception: A Progressive Reinforcement Learning Framework for Interpretable Multimodal Deception Detection

arXiv:2606.18988v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal deception detection is critical for identifying fraudulent intentions, yet existing approaches predominantly rely on end to end black–box paradigms. These methods suffer from a severe lack of interpretability failing to provide transparent reasoning trajectories and struggling to explicitly capture the subtle, cross modal inconsistencies inherent in deceptive behaviors. To transcend these limitations, we propose ThinkDeception, a novel and interpretable multimodal deception detection framework. As a pioneering effort, it introduces Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) into this domain, transforming deception detection from a traditional binary classification task into an explicit cognitive reasoning process. Facilitated by the first meticulously annotated step–by–step multimodal Chain of Thought (CoT) dataset, we develop a foundational model, ThinkDeception Base, empirically validating the critical role of modal inconsistency in decoding deception. Building upon this foundation, our core innovation lies in proposing Visual-Audio Consistency Group Relative Policy Optimization(VAC–GRPO) equipped with a progressive training strategy. Distinct from standard GRPO, we stratify the training data into four progressive difficulty tiers, guiding the model through a psychologically grounded easy–to–hard cognitive transition. By innovatively coupling this dynamic curriculum scheduler with a multi dimensional, process aware reward mechanism and a reflective learning paradigm, we significantly elevate the model's overall reasoning quality. Extensive experiments on mainstream benchmarks demonstrate that ThinkDeception establishes a new SOTA, significantly outperforming existing methods in both detection accuracy and rationale quality. Ultimately, this work successfully drives the field of deception detection toward interpretable, multimodal cognitive reasoning.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

RelayFormer: A Unified Local-Global Attention Framework for Scalable Image and Video Manipulation Localization

Visual manipulation localization (VML) aims to identify tampered regions in images and videos, a task that has become increasingly challenging with the rise of advanced editing tools. Existing methods face two central issues. The first is resolution diversity. Resizing or padding can distort subtle forensic cues and introduce unnecessary computational cost. The second is the difficulty of extending spatial models for images to spatio-temporal inputs in videos, which often results in maintaining separate architectures for the two data types. To address these challenges, we propose RelayFormer, a unified framework that adapts to varying resolutions and naturally handles both static and temporal visual data. RelayFormer partitions inputs into fixed-size sub-images and introduces Global Local Relay (GLR) tokens that propagate structured context through a relay-based attention mechanism. This design enables efficient exchange of global cues, such as semantic or temporal consistency, while preserving fine-grained manipulation artifacts. Unlike prior approaches that depend on uniform resizing or sparse attention, RelayFormer scales to variable resolutions and video sequences with minimal overhead. Experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate superior performance and strong efficiency, combining resolution adaptivity without interpolation or excessive padding, unified processing for images and videos, and a favorable balance between accuracy and computational cost. Code is available at~\href{https://github.com/WenOOI/RelayFormer}{https://github.com/WenOOI/RelayFormer}.

19.
Science (Express) 2026-06-18

Dynamic asymmetric strain imprinted into substrates by an oxide thin film | Science

作者: 未知作者

In film-substrate systems, the substrate role is often considered to be limited to providing static mechanical constraints. Dynamic film-substrate interactions when a structural change in the film modifies the substrate are generally disregarded. Using combined X-ray and electron microscopies, we observed that the electrically induced filament in a VO 2 film created strong asymmetric strain in the underlying Al 2 O 3 substate. This asymmetric substrate strain fed back into the film and defined the filament expansion direction, revealing the importance of film-substrate dynamic interactions in determining film functionality. Furthermore, the strain imprint propagated at least tens of microns deep into the substrate, exceeding the film thickness more than 200 times, potentially enabling substrate functionalization as an active mechanical coupling media in 3D-integrated microelectronics architectures.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Brick-DICL: Dynamic In-Context Learning for Automated Brick Schema Classification

arXiv:2606.17637v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Building Management Systems (BMS) are essential for optimizing energy efficiency and operational performance in modern buildings. However, the lack of standardization across BMS points from different manufacturers creates significant barriers to integration and data utilization. While the Brick schema offers a standardized ontology for building systems, mapping BMS points to appropriate Brick classes presents three critical challenges: (i) the extensive number of Brick classes (936 in the latest version), (ii) limited domain-specific knowledge in large language models (LLMs), and (iii) substantial manual effort required for verification. To address these challenges, we propose Brick-DICL, a two-stage dynamic in-context learning framework for automated Brick schema classification. Brick-DICL consists of two primary components: metadata-RAG, which retrieves relevant examples to enhance LLMs' domain knowledge, and class-RAG, which narrows down potential Brick classes to address the large classification space. Additionally, we implement a multi-LLM filtering mechanism that compares predictions across multiple models, flagging low-confidence classifications for human review. As a result: (i) General: Brick-DICL is applicable to any building management system regardless of manufacturer or metadata format; (ii) Novel and Powerful: as the first dynamic in-context learning approach for Brick schema classification, Brick-DICL achieves significant classification accuracy improvements on building datasets, outperforming existing methods; (iii) Efficient: our multi-LLM filtering strategy reduces manual verification effort, enabling rapid digital building onboarding. Extensive experiments demonstrate Brick-DICL's effectiveness across diverse building datasets, accelerating the path toward standardized, interoperable building management systems.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

EPM-JEPA: Operator-Side Experience Modulation in JEPA-Family World Models

arXiv:2606.12979v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: JEPA-family world models use a static predictor whose weights do not adapt when test-time dynamics diverge from training. We compare two mechanisms for incorporating accumulated experience into a JEPA predictor under distribution shift: operand-side injection, where a compressed experience representation is added as a residual to the predictor's hidden state (EI-JEPA), and operator-side modulation, where the same representation generates low-rank weight deltas via LoRA applied to the predictor's weights (EPM-JEPA). On a pre-registered comparison (Moving MNIST, gravity shift), EPM-JEPA (D_shift^{n=50} = 0.7848 +/- 0.0078, three seeds) differs from EI-JEPA (0.8238) by delta = 4.74% - Outcome C: a null result - by our stated criterion, a valid outcome. As a secondary, non-pre-registered observation, EPM-JEPA improves 1.90% over a no-memory baseline (0.8000), consistently across seeds, while EI-JEPA underperforms the baseline, indicating the benefit is specific to weight-level modulation. Our primary contribution is a mechanism analysis: the D_shift^{n=50} trajectory reflects three independent dynamical processes - buffer cycling, EMA target drift, and an intrinsic LoRA settling transient of +0.021 - rather than convergence to equilibrium. These findings motivate PEM-JEPA, a physics-grounded successor addressing this dynamical-peak limitation.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

SAM-Deep-EIoU: Selective Mask Propagation for Multi-Object Tracking

Multi-object tracking has a heavy-tailed difficulty distribution: most frames are easy for a lightweight base tracker, while a small fraction are intrinsically hard. Video object segmentation (VOS) models can often preserve identity through the hard frames where the base tracker fails, but they are much more expensive in compute and memory. We propose selective mask propagation, a tracking algorithm that dispatches from a base tracker to a VOS model only on windows where an assignment-uncertainty signal fires. The base tracker's output is modified only when the VOS model makes a confident prediction that contradicts the base tracker's identity assignment; weak or inconclusive predictions preserve the base output. The method is training-free, treats both the base tracker and the VOS model as black boxes, and can benefit from replacing the VOS component with a more capable model. On DanceTrack, selective mask propagation improves three different base trackers. On SportsMOT, where identity preservation is central to sports analytics, SAM3-Deep-EIoU with global track association achieves state-of-the-art performance on the benchmark with 86.8 HOTA.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory

arXiv:2509.06697v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting remains a challenging problem, particularly for emerging economies, where the observed time series exhibit pronounced long-memory dependence, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity to macro-financial drivers. Classical models such as ARFIMA capture long-range persistence but fail to adequately represent nonlinear relationships, while modern machine learning approaches often neglect the underlying long-memory structure in macroeconomic series. To address this gap, we propose a Neural AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (NARFIMA) model that integrates ARFIMA-based long-memory modeling with neural networks for nonlinear function approximation, while incorporating exogenous macroeconomic and uncertainty indicators. The framework provides a unified approach for capturing persistence, nonlinear dynamics, and external shocks. We establish asymptotic stationarity of the NARFIMA process and develop conformal prediction intervals for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Empirical results for BRIC exchange rates show that NARFIMA consistently outperforms a broad range of forecasting benchmarks across multiple horizons, underscoring the importance of explicitly modeling long-memory dependence in exchange rate dynamics. The `narfima' R package provides an implementation of our approach.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

A Theory of Training Profit-Optimal LLMs

arXiv:2605.16430v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scaling LLMs requires tremendous computational resources, and recent advances in AI have gone hand in hand with massive amounts of capital expenditure. While it is established that scaling up LLMs reliably increases model quality (quantified in terms of loss or downstream evaluations), it is unclear how these quality improvements translate to potential revenue, and whether revenue increases would offset costs of larger-scale training and inference. In this work, we develop an economic model for characterizing the rational behavior of an LLM training firm by combining scaling laws with microeconomic theory. Under our model of firm behavior, LLM quality can be increased with more parameters and training tokens, leading to more potential adoption by consumers, who each have a quality threshold for using the LLM. On the other hand, additional parameters and training tokens both incur additional costs. We analyze the profit maximization problem for this model under compute-bound and data-bound regimes. In the compute-bound regime, optimal model size and token budget track hardware efficiency $E$ (FLOPs/\$) at a near-linear rate; total training cost then scales sub-quadratically in $E$. Data efficiency improvements incentivize larger models and training expenditure. When we are limited to $D$ data, profit-optimal training expenditure scales as $D^2/E$, i.e, increase with data and decreases with hardware efficiency (as well as data efficiency). Finally, we analyze practical trends in training expenditure: current trends are consistent with our most permissive model variants in the compute-bound regime, but are not profit-optimal in the data-bound regime or assuming hardware advances will stall. Overall, our results provide a theory of profit-optimal LLM training, providing a foundation for engaging critically with industry statements and supporting long-term economic decision making.

25.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-21

DeepCDS: Ab initio coding sequence prediction in prokaryotic short reads

Accurate coding sequence prediction in short prokaryotic metagenomic reads remains challenging due to sequence fragmentation, unknown sequence origins, and sequencing errors. Here we introduce DeepCDS, a deep learning-based ab initio coding sequence predictor trained on short prokaryotic sequences with and without simulated Illumina-like sequencing errors. DeepCDS integrates ESM-2 protein language model embeddings with nucleotide-level information to predict complete and fragmented coding sequence regions. Benchmarking on 215 phylogenetically diverse prokaryotic organisms demonstrates that DeepCDS consistently outperforms current state-of-the-art methods in coding sequence detection, start and stop codon localization, and robustness to different sequencing error profiles, while remaining operational at shorter sequence lengths than existing tools support. These findings demonstrate that protein language models capture distinct signals relevant for nucleotide-level coding sequence detection, especially at very short lengths. Ultimately, DeepCDS may help uncover the functional potential of the vast microbial diversity that remains genomically uncharacterized.