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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Cross-sectional study of the association between depressive symptoms and attentional bias to emotional stimuli in patients with acute stroke: Study protocol

Post-stroke depression affects approximately 30% of patients after stroke and is associated with delayed recovery in activities of daily living, reduced rehabilitation effectiveness, and poorer quality of life. Attentional bias modification may provide a low-burden, nonpharmacological approach for patients in the acute phase of stroke. However, before such an intervention can be implemented in clinical practice, it is necessary to clarify whether attentional bias is present in patients with acute stroke and depressive symptoms, whether cognitive function influences the manifestation of this bias, and which task and stimulus formats are most appropriate for assessment. This multicenter, cross-sectional observational study will enroll patients with acute stroke between 7-30 days after stroke onset. Depressive symptoms will be assessed using the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Attentional bias will be measured under four task conditions based on the dot-probe task and the cue-target task, using face and word stimuli. Secondary assessments will include cognitive function, anxiety symptoms, activities of daily living, health-related quality of life, and clinical background variables. The aims of this study are to investigate the association between depressive symptoms and attentional bias in patients with acute stroke, compare attentional bias characteristics across task and stimulus types, and examine the potential influence of cognitive function on this association. The findings are expected to provide an empirical basis for designing future attentional bias modification protocols targeting post-stroke depression in the acute phase. This study has been registered with the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000059166).

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Externalizing Research Synthesis and Validation in AI Scientists through a Research Harness

arXiv:2606.18874v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI systems can increasingly automate scientific workflows, but the reasoning that links prior evidence, generated ideas, experiments and final claims often remains implicit inside model inference. Here we introduce Xcientist, a research harness that externalizes research synthesis and experimental validation into inspectable, contract-governed processes. Xcientist organizes literature evidence, idea states, implementation plans, ablation records and repair traces as persistent research artifacts, so that generated mechanisms can be grounded, executed, tested and revised without losing their evidential basis. We identify claim drift as a failure mode of automated research, where runnable artifacts no longer support the mechanism originally claimed. Across training-free memory systems, graph-structured traffic forecasting and multi-scale physics-informed neural networks, Xcientist preserves traceable trajectories from problem formulation to mechanism design, validation and bounded revision. These results suggest that AI scientists should be evaluated not only by their final artifacts, but by whether their synthesis and validation processes remain attributable, inspectable and scientifically accountable.

03.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Metrics for Evaluating Biological AI Model Predictive Accuracy at the Data-Substrate Level

作者:

Reports in the biological literature disagree on whether a given model can predict a biological outcome from a given data sample — one study finding a model capable, another, on the same kind of data, finding it is not. This is particularly a challenge in relation to LLMs–where the models are large and opaque, with weights and training data inaccessible.textbf{ }Such disagreements cannot be settled by directly inspecting the model. To address this challenge, we considertextbf{ }an alternative approach: assessing whether the data sample is adequate to support the prediction asserted. For a given dataset, its substrate — the underlying structure of the data — determines what any model can recover, independent of architecture or capacity. At the same time, predicting the present state of a biological process and predicting the direction of its future change are different tasks; the second is supportable among AI models only where the data encode direction as determinable from the state — a property we call encoding — and is unsupportable where the same observed state precedes change in opposite directions — a property we call non-identifiability, in the informational rather than the statistical sense. We introduce two generic metrics, Predictive Blindness Risk (PBR) and Prediction Indeterminacy Measure (PIM), that evaluate a data substrate for predictive accuracy directly — without access to model weights, architecture, or training data — and locate the regions of a data substrate where a predictive claim can be supported and where it cannot. Using human biological subjects, we employ the Yale Brain Metastases Longitudinal Data (1,430 human subjects; 11,892 MRI studies; four sequences) and show that direction of change was non-identifiable across regions encompassing the majority of transitions; a nonlinear AI model gained essentially nothing over majority-direction prediction there while recovering direction near-perfectly where the state encoded it; and model accuracy tracked data-substrate resolvability continuously (Spearman {rho} = -0.95 to -1.00). The metrics adjudicate, before any model is trusted and from the data alone, where claims of predictive accuracy — of state, or of the law of change — can be supported.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

APEX: Automated Prompt Engineering eXpert with Dynamic Data Selection

Large Language Models are highly sensitive to prompt formulation, necessitating automatic prompt optimization to unlock their full potential. While evolutionary algorithms have emerged as the dominant paradigm, they suffer from a critical bottleneck: data efficiency. Current methods treat the development dataset as a static benchmark, wasting significant compute budget on uninformative data. In this work, we introduce APEX (Automatic Prompt Engineering eXpert), a novel framework that optimizes the data usage alongside the prompt search. APEX dynamically stratifies the dataset into Easy, Hard, and Mixed tiers based on the optimization lineage. By prioritizing the Mixed tier, which identifies the data where the LLM has mixed performance, we identify two high-leverage subsets: the addressable frontier for generating informative mutations and the rank-sensitive frontier for distinguishing candidate quality. We evaluate APEX across three diverse benchmarks: IFBench, SimpleQA Verified, and FACTS Grounding. Under a fixed budget of 5,000 evaluation calls, due to its data efficiency, APEX outperforms the initial prompt by an average of 11.2% on Gemini 2.5 Flash and 6.8% on Gemma 3 27B, demonstrating that a data-centric approach is key to efficient and effective prompt optimization.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Diffusion Flow Matching: Dimension-Improved KL Bounds and Wasserstein Guarantees

arXiv:2606.16610v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion Flow Matching (DFM) has recently emerged as a versatile framework for generative modeling, yet its theoretical convergence properties remain only partially understood. In this work, we provide refined and novel convergence guarantees for Brownian motion based DFMs, focusing on the discretization error. Our analysis is conducted under the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and the 2-Wasserstein distance. Under finite-moment conditions and a mild score integrability assumption, we derive KL convergence bounds with improved dimensional dependence compared to prior work, achieving, up to our knowledge, state-of-the-art scaling under minimal conditions. We further extend the analysis to the 2-Wasserstein distance: under an additional first-order score integrability assumption and a weak log-concavity condition, we obtain convergence guarantees with dimensional dependence consistent with the KL case.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Fantastic Pretraining Optimizers and Where to Find Them II: Hyperball Optimization

arXiv:2606.16899v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Matrix based optimizers such as Muon can substantially speed up language model pretraining, but their gains over AdamW are observed to shrink as model size and data scale grow when using standard constant decoupled weight decay. We propose Hyperball, a simple optimizer wrapper that addresses this issue. Given a base optimizer such as Adam or Muon, Hyperball sets the Frobenius norms of weight matrices and their corresponding optimizer updates to fixed constants. On Qwen3 style models up to 1.2B parameters, Muon Hyperball achieves 20–30% token equivalent speedup over weight decay baselines. Hyperball also improves learning rate transfer across widths and depths compared to decoupled weight decay. This method is motivated by prior theory showing that training with weight decay leads to an equilibrium weight norm that only depends on the training hyperparameters. Through this mechanism, the weight decay then decides the angular learning rate, i.e. how fast the direction of the weight matrix changes.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

GrapNet: A Programmable Dynamic-Architecture Neural Graph Substrate

作者:

arXiv:2606.18923v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Programmability is a missing first-class interface in fixed-tensor neural networks: editing a relation, freezing a subgraph, auditing a local function, or changing the execution backend should be an operation on the neural program rather than ad-hoc parameter surgery. GrapNet studies this graph-as-network setting. The graph is the architecture and executable program, not an input data graph. Each compute node owns its next-layer child references and a trainable allocation vector aligned with those references; deleting a relation physically removes both the child reference and the corresponding allocation coordinate. Structural rules and execution policies live outside the node core, so the same child-owned graph can be grown, frozen, structurally edited, grouped into trainable family blocks, routed by attention over active relations, or lowered to dense snapshots after topology stabilizes. GrapNet composes with conventional modules through a vector-valued parent interface: dense layers, CNN encoders, ResNet feature extractors, attention blocks, and transformer representations can all feed one sensory GrapNode per coordinate. The evaluation is organized as a programmability stress suite rather than as a new replay benchmark. In a matched ten-seed Split Fashion-MNIST study, a plastic GrapNet+ER head reaches 63.16 percent seen-class accuracy versus 51.08 percent for a parameter-larger dense MLP+ER under the same seen-class loss and replay memory, with paired delta 12.08 points and p=1.3e-5. On Split CIFAR-10 with a frozen ImageNet ResNet-18 encoder, the same substrate improves the online head over MLP-256 by 3.81 points, with p=0.0026. These results support GrapNet as an editable neural graph substrate whose core value is structural programmability with faithful execution views.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Multi-Turn Reasoning When Context Arrives in Pieces: Scalable Sharding and Memory-Augmented RL

When a user reveals task-critical information across several conversation turns, LLM accuracy drops by up to 65% despite full context availability. We show that this Lost in Conversation degradation can be substantially mitigated by training models to maintain a compact rolling memory instead of attending to a growing history. To make such training scalable, we introduce a low-cost sharding pipeline that converts single-turn QA datasets into multi-turn fragmented-information episodes, eliminating the need for hours of manual annotation. Training only on sharded GSM8K, our memory-augmented policy significantly improves multi-turn accuracy and generalises zero-shot to harder math and out-of-domain long-context QA. Moreover, memory-trained models outperform full-history baselines even when given the full history at test time, suggesting that learning to compress induces more robust incremental reasoning than full-context exposure alone.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Creativity Reconsidered: Generative AI and the Problem of Intentional Agency

arXiv:2601.15797v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many theorists maintain that conscious intentional agency is a necessary condition of creativity. We argue that this requirement, which we call the Intentional Agency Condition (IAC), should be abandoned. We motivate this by highlighting the problems this criterion encounters in the face of recent advances in generative AI, which is ostensibly creative despite being incapable of intentional agency. We present two corpus analyses to illustrate the rapidly increasing tendency of people to predicate creativity to generative AI. In response to this predicament, theorists of creativity have proposed a range of conflicting solutions, which we critically evaluate. We find that none of these satisfyingly resolves the initial predicament, and we therefore propose a novel approach. Our claim is that ascriptions of creativity are dependent on what we call creative ability. This solution explains why intentional agency is important for judgements of creativity, without being a necessary condition. Our approach thereby accommodates AI creativity without dismissing the intuition that perceived intentions are of key importance for ascriptions of creativity.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Polarization-Resolved Photon Statistics of Cavity Quantum Materials

arXiv:2606.11550v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: By forming hybrid light-matter states, optical cavities offer a route for engineering material properties, however, unambiguously probing the effects of light-matter coupling remains difficult. Here, we show that the polarization-resolved statistics of photons transmitted through a cavity, measurable via $g^{(2)}$, provide one such diagnostic. By relating $g^{(2)}$ to matter correlation functions such as the Raman structure factor, we link photon bunching and antibunching to material properties. By applying this method to the stripy-to-antiferromagnetic transition in the Kitaev-Heisenberg spin model, we find that polarization-dependent patterns of bunching and antibunching encode the magnetic point-group symmetries of each phase and characterize the behavior at the phase boundary. Finally, we predict measuring $g^{(2)}$ for output photon pairs polarized orthogonal to the input field will isolate higher-order light-matter scattering processes that probe higher-order material correlations.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Interpretable and Verifiable Hardware Generation with LLM-Driven Stepwise Refinement

arXiv:2606.19387v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in software development. However, they are susceptible to hallucinations, meaning that they can introduce subtle semantic and logical errors. Due to the high stakes in chip design and manufacturing, hardware engineers are still reluctant to rely on LLMs for register-transfer level (RTL) generation. In this paper, we propose a hardware generation framework that combines the creativity and broad knowledge of LLMs with the explainability and mathematical rigor of formal methods. Specifically, we devise a set of transformation rules that cover various design decisions and hardware features. By iteratively applying these rules, an LLM agent can convert a design specification into an RTL program with guaranteed correctness. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the framework.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

PhyloSDF: Phylogenetically-Conditioned Neural Generation of 3D Skull Morphology via Residual Flow Matching

Generating novel, biologically plausible three-dimensional morphological structures is a fundamental challenge in computational evolutionary biology, hampered by extreme data scarcity and the requirement that generated shapes respect phylogenetic relationships among species. In this work, we present PhyloSDF, a phylogenetically-conditioned neural generative model for 3D biological morphology that integrates two innovations: (1) a DeepSDF auto-decoder regularized by a novel Phylogenetic Consistency Loss that structures the latent space to correlate with evolutionary distances (Pearson r=0.993); (2) a Residual Conditional Flow Matching (Residual CFM) architecture that factorizes generation into analytic species-centroid lookup and learned residual prediction, enabling generation from as few as ~4 specimens per species. We evaluate PhyloSDF on 100 micro-CT-scanned skulls of Darwin's Finches and their relatives across 24 species. The model generates novel meshes achieving 88-129% of real intra-species variation at the code level, with all 180 generated meshes verified as non-memorized. Residual CFM surpasses denoising diffusion (which fails entirely at this scale), standard flow matching (which mode-collapses to 3-6% variation), and a Gaussian mixture baseline in both fidelity (Chamfer Distance 0.00181 vs. 0.00190) and morphometric Fr\'{e}chet distance (10,641 vs. 13,322). Leave-one-species-out experiments across 18 species demonstrate phylogenetic extrapolation capability, and smooth latent interpolations produce biologically plausible ancestral skull reconstructions.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Disentangling Hallucinations: Orthogonal Semantic Projection for Robust Interpretability

As Vision-Language Models are increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications, the trustworthiness of their explanations becomes crucial. Explainable AI (XAI) methods for Vision-Language Models often suffer from semantic hallucination, where attribution maps highlight prominent image regions even when prompted with incorrect text descriptions (e.g., highlighting a dog when prompted ``cat''). Although this problem is widespread, a formal mathematical analysis of XAI methods and CLIP embeddings is largely missing in the literature. We demonstrate that this phenomenon is not specific to a single architecture but is a fundamental consequence of Linear Semantic Leakage in high-dimensional embedding spaces. We propose a unified theoretical framework, Linear Semantic Attribution (LSA), which generalizes across discriminative methods. We introduce OSP, a geometric intervention that utilizes the residual property of OMP to disentangle unique semantic signals from shared concepts. We prove theoretically and demonstrate empirically that OSP minimizes hallucination by orthogonalizing the query vector against distractor concepts, rendering the attribution model blind to shared features while preserving fidelity for correct prompts. Our code is available at: https://github.com/emirhanbilgic/Orthogonal-Semantic-Projection

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

An Empirical Study on Predictive Maintenance for Component X in Heavy-Duty Scania Trucks

arXiv:2606.12486v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Condition-based Predictive Maintenance (PdM) for truck fleets has gained momentum in recent years. This maintenance strategy aims to minimize unplanned downtimes and reduce costs by monitoring the health status of vehicles and taking proactive action based on their condition. However, the implementation of condition-based PdM systems is challenging due to the large volume of data generated by the trucks, the inherent complexity of detecting failures through sensor data and the difficulties in finding cost-effective trade-offs in the solution's implementation. In this paper, we define and validate a condition-based PdM methodology built on the assumption that the wear-and-tear state of the monitored component can be represented as a monotonically non-decreasing time series. It involves selecting only the most recent observations from the time series and transforming them into a tabular format for classification using machine learning (ML) models designed for tabular data. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology reduces costs on the Scania Component X dataset compared to current state-of-the-art (SOTA) approaches, while also simplifying the modeling process through AutoML.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

MooMIns – Monocular 3D Reconstruction and Object Pose Estimation from Multiple Instances

Simultaneous 3D reconstruction and 6D object pose estimation from a single monocular image is an inherently ill-posed problem. In industrial settings, however, multiple instances of an object are often randomly arranged in bins, implicitly providing several views of the same object within a single image. We show that this implicit multi-view geometry can be exploited to simultaneously reconstruct the object in 3D and estimate the 6D pose of each visible object instance. We present MooMIns, a new Gaussian-splatting-based approach that inverts the original Gaussian splatting formulation: instead of rendering a single scene from multiple cameras, we render multiple object instances from a single camera. Our method is initialized with SAM3 instance segmentation masks and a modified Structure from Motion (SfM) pipeline. In contrast to learned monocular depth estimation, we perform true geometry-based reconstruction from image evidence, avoiding hallucinations caused by training data priors. We evaluate MooMIns on synthetic and real bin-picking scenarios, and demonstrate accurate reconstruction of previously unseen objects as well as reliable pose estimation of individual instance

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

SpikeTAD: Spiking Neural Networks for End-to-End Temporal Action Detection

Video understanding is a crucial part of computer vision, with numerous application scenarios. With the increasing popularity of mobile devices, an increasing number of efforts are trying to deploy video understanding models on them. However, existing video understanding models are difficult to deploy due to their large size and prohibitive power consumption. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have shown bioplausibility and low power advantages over Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), especially on neuromorphic chips which are regarded as essential components of future mobile devices. However, excessively long conversion time-steps and severe performance degradation problems limit their application. To solve the problems above, we explore the application of SNNs on temporal action detection (TAD), which is an important task in video understanding, and propose the first SNN-based end-to-end TAD architecture coined as SpikeTAD. While maintaining extremely low power consumption, SpikeTAD achieves an average mAP of 67.2% in THUMOS14 and 37.42% in ActivityNet-1.3, demonstrating the feasibility of a low-power TAD model. Our code is available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/SpikeTAD.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

JetFlow: Breaking the Scaling Ceiling of Speculative Decoding with Parallel Tree Drafting

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) by drafting multiple tokens and verifying them in parallel, but it faces a scaling limitation: increasing the draft budget improves speed only when acceptance remains high and drafting overhead stays low. This ceiling has been difficult to break because prior head-based SD methods face a causality-efficiency dilemma. Autoregressive drafters produce path-conditioned candidates that are effective for tree speculative decoding with higher acceptance length, but their drafting cost grows with tree depth. Bidirectional block-diffusion drafters generate all positions in one pass, but their branch-agnostic marginals can form individually plausible yet mutually inconsistent trees, wasting budget and reducing acceptance. We propose JetFlow, a head-based SD framework that combines one-forward drafting efficiency with branch-wise causal conditioning. JetFlow trains a causal parallel draft head over fused hidden states from the frozen target model, producing candidate trees whose scores align with the target model's autoregressive factorization. This enables JetFlow to convert larger draft budgets into longer accepted prefixes and higher end-to-end speedup. Across math, coding, and chat benchmarks on dense and MoE Qwen3 models, JetFlow consistently outperforms bidirectional-head and tree-based SD baselines. On H100 GPUs, JetFlow achieves up to 9.64x speedup on MATH-500 and 4.58x on open-ended conversational workloads, with further latency gains demonstrated through vLLM integration under realistic serving loads. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/hao-ai-lab/JetFlow.

19.
Science (Express) 2026-04-23

Structural N- and O-glycans revealed by high-resolution cryo-EM analysis of tubular mastigonemes | Science

作者: 未知作者

The chemical complexity and non-templated biosynthesis of glycans have posed significant challenges for establishing sequence-structure relationships. Here we report cryo-EM structures of tubular mastigonemes from a golden alga species, Ochromonas danica , in which a large number of N- and O-glycans are resolved at 1.8-2.2 Å resolution. Beyond high-mannose and complex N-glycans, we identify a non-canonical N-glycan on the Ala- Asn -Asp (A N D) motif. The surface spikes comprise dense O-glycans coating PSXX tetrapeptide repeats, with two glycans linked on trihydroxylated proline and one on serine per repeat. In addition to various types of sugars and their covalent modifiers, water molecules (>10% of resolved volume) and cations are clearly resolved and mediate the structural assembly. Our study establishes a framework for investigating glycan folding in high-order biological assemblies.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Fractured Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Inference-time scaling techniques have significantly bolstered the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by harnessing additional computational effort at inference without retraining. Similarly, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting and its extension, Long CoT, improve accuracy by generating rich intermediate reasoning trajectories, but these approaches incur substantial token costs that impede their deployment in latency-sensitive settings. In this work, we first show that truncated CoT, which stops reasoning before completion and directly generates the final answer, often matches the full CoT sampling while using dramatically fewer tokens. Building on this insight, we introduce Fractured Sampling, a unified inference-time strategy that interpolates between full CoT and solution-only sampling along three orthogonal axes: (1) the number of reasoning trajectories, (2) the number of final solutions per trajectory, and (3) the depth at which reasoning traces are truncated. Through extensive experiments on five diverse reasoning benchmarks and several model scales, we demonstrate that Fractured Sampling consistently achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs, yielding steep log-linear scaling gains in Pass@k versus token budget. Our analysis reveals how to allocate computation across these dimensions to maximize performance, paving the way for more efficient and scalable LLM reasoning. Code is available at https://github.com/BaohaoLiao/frac-cot.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Deterministic Policy Gradient for Learning Equilibrium in Time-Inconsistent Control Problems

arXiv:2606.11798v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we develop a continuous-time model-free reinforcement learning algorithm to learn deterministic equilibrium policies in general time-inconsistent control problems. Utilizing the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman system, we recast the original time-inconsistent problem into an equivalent two-stage problem. In the first stage, for given auxiliary functions, we employ the deterministic policy gradient approach to learn an optimal policy in an auxiliary time-consistent control problem. In the second stage, given the updated policy, we exploit the inner fixed point iterations and some martingale characterizations to learn the auxiliary functions. As a theoretical contribution, we provide some mild model assumptions and establish the convergence of inner fixed point iterations. By repeating this actor-critic style of iterations across two stages, our algorithm aims to learn the equilibrium under different sources of time-inconsistency in a unified manner. The superior effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are illustrated in two classical financial applications with time-inconsistency: mean-variance portfolio management and optimal tracking portfolio under non-exponential discounting.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

SEDULity: A Proof-of-Learning Framework for Distributed and Secure Blockchains with Efficient Useful Work

arXiv:2512.13666v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The security and decentralization of Proof-of-Work (PoW) have been well-tested in existing blockchain systems. However, its tremendous energy waste has raised concerns about sustainability. Proof-of-Useful-Work (PoUW) aims to redirect the meaningless computation to meaningful tasks such as solving machine learning (ML) problems, giving rise to the branch of Proof-of-Learning (PoL). While previous studies have proposed various PoLs, they all, to some degree, suffer from security, decentralization, or efficiency issues. In this paper, we propose a PoL framework that trains ML models efficiently while maintaining blockchain security in a fully distributed manner. We name the framework SEDULity, which stands for a Secure, Efficient, Distributed, and Useful Learning-based blockchain system. Specifically, we encode the template block into the training process and design a useful function that is difficult to solve but relatively easy to verify, as a substitute for the PoW puzzle. We show that our framework is distributed, secure, and efficiently trains ML models. We further demonstrate that the proposed PoL framework can be extended to other types of useful work and design an incentive mechanism to incentivize task verification. We show theoretically that a rational miner is incentivized to train fully honestly with well-designed system parameters. Finally, we present simulation results to demonstrate the performance of our framework and validate our analysis.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

A Risk Decomposition Framework for Pre-Hoc Fine-Tuning Prediction

arXiv:2606.17649v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The high cost of fine-tuning LLMs poses a significant economic barrier; pre-hoc performance prediction offers a critical solution to substantially reduce this expense. However, the theoretical limits of pre-hoc performance prediction remain unexplored. We formulate it as a stochastic estimation problem under information constraints, decomposing prediction risk into two components: an intrinsic limit (static data-model compatibility) and a reducible optimization variance. We prove that optimization variance admits a necessary lower bound on its decay rate, implying fundamental constraints on how quickly uncertainty dissipates, regardless of the predictor used. Based on these dynamics, we derive a budget-optimal probing principle and introduce a predictability phase diagram that organizes tasks into three distinct regimes: Static-Sufficient, Dynamic-Critical, and Noise-Dominant. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks validate these theoretical regimes and demonstrate the efficiency of our probing strategy.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Everywhere Valid Bounds on False Discovery Proportions in Conformal Inference

arXiv:2605.20726v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern applications of conformal inference to multiple testing problems, such as outlier detection and candidate selection, often involve selecting test samples whose conformal p-values fall below a threshold. The quality of such methods is often measured by the false discovery proportion (FDP), defined as the fraction of incorrect selections. Existing approaches typically control the expected value of the FDP, using methods such as the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. This approach fails to provide high-probability bounds on the realized false discovery proportion and invalidates statistical guarantees if the rejection threshold is selected after inspecting the data. This paper establishes finite-sample, distribution-free upper bounds on the FDP that hold simultaneously over all possible rejection thresholds, enabling arbitrary post hoc selection of the threshold. Simultaneous validity is achieved by constructing a high-probability envelope for the empirical distribution function of null conformal p-values by sampling from their joint distribution. Furthermore, our framework allows practitioners to modulate the envelope's shape, thereby producing tight bounds in rejection regions of primary interest. We use this flexible approach to derive simultaneous FDP upper bounds for both outlier detection and conformal selection. We demonstrate through synthetic and real-data experiments that the resulting bounds are both valid and substantially less conservative than those derived from existing approaches.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Bidirectional Cross-Attention Fusion of High-Resolution RGB and Low-Resolution Hyperspectral Inputs for Multimodal Semantic Segmentation

Multimodal semantic segmentation with heterogeneous sensors must reconcile complementary information across modalities that differ in spatial resolution and channel dimensionality. In particular, high-resolution RGB imaging provides detailed spatial structure but often fails to distinguish visually similar materials, whereas hyperspectral imaging (HSI) provides discriminative spectral signatures but at lower spatial resolution. We present Bidirectional Cross-Attention Fusion (BCAF), which aligns high-resolution RGB with low-resolution HSI at their native grids via localized, bidirectional cross-attention, avoiding pre-upsampling or early spectral collapse. BCAF uses two independent backbones: a standard Swin Transformer for RGB and an HSI-adapted Swin backbone that preserves spectral structure through 3D tokenization with spectral self-attention. Although our evaluation targets RGB-HSI fusion, BCAF is modality-agnostic and applies to co-registered RGB with lower-resolution, high-channel auxiliary sensors. On the benchmark SpectralWaste dataset, BCAF delivers strong performance, achieving 75.4% at 55 images/s. We further evaluate a novel industrial dataset: K3I-Cycling (first RGB subset already released on Fordatis). On this dataset, BCAF reaches 62.3% mIoU for material segmentation (paper, metal, plastic, etc.) and 66.2% mIoU for plastic-type segmentation (PET, PP, HDPE, LDPE, PS, etc.). These results show that preserving native-grid spatial detail and spectral structure improves multimodal segmentation under real-time constraints. Code and model checkpoints are publicly available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/BCAF_2026.