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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimizing bias-tailored quantum error correction beyond code-capacity noise

arXiv:2606.17709v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We find that the substantial advantages predicted for bias-tailored quantum error correction (QEC) under code-capacity noise are strongly reduced once realistic syndrome extraction and circuit-level noise models are considered. We start by comparing XZZX codes to rectangular surface codes with a bias-dependent optimised anisotropy. Although code-capacity simulations predict an advantage of rectangular surface codes in the limit of high noise bias, this actually disappears under circuit-level noise, making the XZZX codes the preferred and simplest choice even for platforms that allow for a flexible variation of the code layout adapted to changes in noise calibration. Our results identify bias degradation during syndrome extraction under circuit-level noise as the central limitation of biased-tailored QEC. To partially mitigate this effect, we introduce a bias-filtering CNOT gadget that temporarily encodes the ancillary target qubit during syndrome extraction in a repetition code and, upon measurement and feed forward, manages to reduce the bias degradation. In a regime of high-bias and low-idle errors, this bias-filtering gadget yields a few-percent relative improvement of the XZZX code error threshold, demonstrating that lightweight bias-filtering strategies can recover part of the lost bias-tailoring advantage for realistic circuit-level noise.

02.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-27

Sequential chemo-immunotherapy followed by standard versus reduced thoracic radiotherapy for older and/or frail stage III non-small-cell lung cancer: A randomized open-label cohort trial

作者:

by Wei-Xiang Qi, Shuyan Li, Mengdi Wang, Huan Li, Feifei Xu, Lei Yao, Biao Yu, Linlin Chen, Gang Cai, Cheng Xu, Xianwen Sun, Zhiyao Bao, Jiayi Chen, Yi Xiang, Shengguang Zhao Background The appropriateness of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (cCRT) for older or clinically vulnerable stage III unresectable non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients remains contentious. Furthermore, the survival implications of de-escalating thoracic radiotherapy (RT) intensity in this population have not been conclusively elucidated. Methods and findings We conducted a phase II randomized, open-label, two-cohort (non-comparative) trial at a tertiary hospital in China (NCT05557552). Between September 30, 2022 and April 30, 2024, we enrolled 56 older and/or frail patients with stage III NSCLC who were ineligible for cCRT. The primary endpoint was the 1-year progression-free survival (PFS) rate estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Secondary endpoints included objective response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and safety. In the intention-to-treat (ITT) set, which included all 56 randomized patients who received at least one dose of study treatment, the 1-year PFS was 84.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] [70.3%, 98.3%]) in the standard RT group and 70.7% (95% CI [54.3%, 87.1%]) in the reduced RT group. In the per-protocol set (53 patients), the 1-year PFS was 82.9% (95% CI [68.9%, 98.8%]) in the standard RT group and 73.4% (95% CI [58.3%, 92.4%]), with a median follow-up of 24 months. Among 56 patients in the safety analysis set, 71.4% of patients experienced grade 3/4 adverse events (AEs) in the standard RT group and 53.6% in the reduced RT group. One patient (3.6%) in the reduced RT and three patients (10.7%) in the standardized RT experienced grade 5 AEs. The main limitations are the non-comparative design, small sample size, and lack of power to establish non-inferiority or superiority. Conclusion The current study suggested that reduced RT combined with sequential chemo-immunotherapy might be feasible for older/frail patients intolerant to cCRT, showing numerically similar survival outcomes. These exploratory findings warrant confirmation in larger, adequately powered randomized trials. Trial registration The trial had been registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on Sep 30, 2022.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05557552

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Association of circulating endothelial progenitor cell count and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke due to intracranial large vessel occlusion

Background: Circulating endothelial progenitor cells (cEPCs) contribute to vascular repair following an ischemic stroke. The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between cEPCs and functional outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion (LVO) who received endovascular therapy (EVT). Methods: Prospective study of patients with LVO-AIS who received EVT. Blood samples were obtained within 24 +- 12 hours and on day 7+-1 from stroke onset. cEPCs were detected using flow cytometry (CD34+/VEGFR2+/CD133+). The primary endpoint was a favourable functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) at three months of follow-up. Secondary endpoints include baseline to 24 hours/day 7 changes in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score and collateral circulation (CC) status. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Results: Included were 90 patients (73.2+-12.7 years, 41.1% women) in 42 of whom (46.7%) cEPCs were detected at 24 hours. On day 7, cEPCs were detected in 27 (43.6%) of 62 patients for which this information was available. Atrial fibrillation, prior anticoagulant treatment and stroke onset-to-door time

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Adaptive Model-Predictive Control of a Soft Continuum Robot Using a Physics-Informed Neural Network Based on Cosserat Rod Theory

arXiv:2508.12681v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Dynamic control of soft continuum robots (SCRs) holds great potential for expanding their applications, but remains a challenging problem due to the high computational demands of accurate dynamic models. While data-driven approaches like Koopman-operator-based methods have been proposed, they typically lack adaptability and cannot reconstruct the full robot shape, limiting their applicability. This work introduces a real-time-capable nonlinear model-predictive control (MPC) framework for SCRs based on a domain-decoupled physics-informed neural network (DD-PINN) with adaptable bending stiffness. The DD-PINN serves as a surrogate for the dynamic Cosserat rod model with a speed-up factor of up to 44,000. It is also used within an unscented Kalman filter for estimating the model states and bending compliance from end-effector position measurements. We implement a nonlinear evolutionary MPC running at 70 Hz on the GPU. In simulation, it demonstrates accurate tracking of dynamic trajectories and setpoint control with end-effector position errors below 3 mm (2.3\% of the actuator's length). In real-world experiments, the controller achieves similar accuracy and accelerations up to 3.55 m/s2.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Entity Binding Failures in Speech LLM Reasoning: Diagnosis and Chain-of-Thought Intervention

Speech Large Language Models (SLLMs) underperform their text counterparts on complex reasoning. We reveal that this gap is not a uniform cognitive deficit. Evaluating two architecturally diverse SLLMs, we show speech-to-text (S2T) matches or exceeds text-to-text (T2T) on spatial, syntactic, and factual tasks. Yet on logical tasks requiring entity tracking, S2T accuracy collapses to chance. We diagnose this as an entity binding failure: continuous speech features blur precise entity-property associations during implicit reasoning. To validate this diagnosis, we introduce Entity-Aware Chain-of-Thought (EA-CoT), a lightweight inference-time intervention forcing SLLMs to enumerate entities and bind them to claims before reasoning. EA-CoT bridges the gap, even when spoken names are misrecognized, yielding up to a 24.4 percentage-point accuracy gain. Ablations confirm the gains stem from explicit semantic binding, reframing the gap as an elicitation failure rather than a missing capability.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Akasha 2: Hamiltonian State Space Duality and Visual-Language Joint Embedding Predictive Architectur

作者:

We present Akasha 2, a state-of-the-art multimodal architecture that integrates Hamiltonian State Space Duality (H-SSD) with Visual-Language Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (VL-JEPA). The system leverages the Mamba-3 Selective State Space Model (SSM) augmented by a Sparse Mixture of Hamiltonian Experts (SMoE-HE) that enforces latent physical conservation laws through symplectic integration. For visual synthesis, we introduce Hamiltonian Flow Matching (HFM) and persistent 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS), enabling ultra-low latency (

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

LP-Based Algorithms for Scheduling in a Quantum Switch

作者:

arXiv:2603.27812v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider scheduling in a quantum switch with stochastic entanglement generation, finite quantum memories, and decoherence. The objective is to design a scheduling algorithm with polynomial-time computational complexity that stabilizes a nontrivial fraction of the capacity region. Scheduling in such a switch corresponds to finding a matching in a graph subject to additional constraints. We propose an LP-based policy, which finds a point in the matching polytope, which is further implemented using a randomized decomposition into matchings. The main challenge is that service over an edge is feasible only when entanglement is simultaneously available at both endpoint memories, so the effective service rates depend on the steady-state availability induced by the scheduling rule. To address this, we introduce a single-node reference Markov chain and derive lower bounds on achievable service rates in terms of the steady-state nonemptiness probabilities. We then use a Lyapunov drift argument to show that, whenever the request arrival rates lie within the resulting throughput region, the proposed algorithm stabilizes the request queues. We further analyze how the achievable throughput depends on entanglement generation rates, decoherence probabilities, and buffer sizes, and show that the throughput lower bound converges exponentially fast to its infinite-buffer limit as the memory size increases. Numerical results illustrate that the guaranteed throughput fraction is substantial for parameter regimes relevant to near-term quantum networking systems.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Where Do Backdoors Live? A Component-Level Analysis of Backdoor Propagation in Speech Language Models

Speech language models (SLMs) are systems of systems: independent components that unite to achieve a common goal. Despite their heterogeneous nature, SLMs are often studied end-to-end; how information flows through the pipeline remains obscure. We investigate this question through the lens of backdoor attacks. We first establish that backdoors can propagate through the SLM, leaving all tasks highly vulnerable. From this, we design a component analysis to discover the role each component takes in backdoor learning. We find that backdoor persistence or erasure is highly dependent on the targeted component. Beyond propagation, we examine how backdoors are encoded in shared multitask embeddings, showing that poisoned samples are not directly separable from benign ones, challenging a common separability assumption used in filtering defenses. Our findings emphasize the need to treat multimodal pipelines as intricate systems with unique vulnerabilities, not solely extensions of unimodal ones.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Measurement Geometry for Quantum Random Access Codes: Beyond Nayak Bound and Toward Optimality

arXiv:2606.12700v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantum random access codes (QRACs) ask how well N classical bits can be encoded into M qubits while allowing any single bit to be recovered. Although the Nayak bound remains the standard general upper bound on the decoding probability, numerical evidence suggests a stronger upper bound in the small-qubit regime. In this work, we formulate the optimal decoding probability in terms of decoding measurements, reformulating QRAC design as a spectral problem for noncommuting measurements. Using this formulation, we give an elementary proof of the Nayak bound by simplifying the Chernoff-bound argument. Moreover, we refine the argument to obtain upper bounds that improve over Nayak's bound in the entire finite-size regime. The equality conditions of our bounds justify defining mutually unbiased projector-valued measurements (MUPVMs), a generalization of mutually unbiased bases. We show that decoding measurement of any two-qubit QRAC attaining the conjectured bound must form MUPVMs. We also show that any MUPVM, assisted by one ancillary qubit, yields a QRAC with optimal N-scaling decoding probability. Finally, we propose a new MUPVM-based construction for the (M+2,M)-QRAC family attaining the conjectured bound.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Optimizing Agentic Reasoning with Retrieval via Synthetic Semantic Information Gain Reward

arXiv:2602.00845v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Agentic reasoning enables large reasoning models (LRMs) to dynamically acquire external knowledge, but yet optimizing the retrieval process remains challenging due to the lack of dense, principled reward signals. In this paper, we introduce InfoReasoner, a unified framework that incentivizes effective information seeking via a synthetic semantic information gain reward. Theoretically, we redefine information gain as uncertainty reduction over the model's belief states, establishing guarantees, including non-negativity, telescoping additivity, and channel monotonicity. Practically, to enable scalable optimization without manual retrieval annotations, we propose an output-aware intrinsic estimator that computes information gain directly from the model's output distributions using semantic clustering via bidirectional textual entailment. This intrinsic reward guides the policy to maximize epistemic progress, enabling efficient training via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Experiments across seven question-answering benchmarks demonstrate that InfoReasoner consistently outperforms strong retrieval-augmented baselines, achieving up to 5.4% average accuracy improvement. Our work provides a theoretically grounded and scalable path toward agentic reasoning with retrieval. The code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/InfoReasoner

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Code-Switching Reveals Language Anchoring in Multilingual LLMs

Multilingual Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly expected to handle Code-Switched (CS) inputs, yet mixing languages frequently degrades performance relative to source- or target-language monolingual counterparts. To understand this degradation, we use grammar-forced CS as a controlled diagnostic setting for locating CS representations relative to their source and target counterparts. We introduce Anchor Bias, a geometric measure that quantifies language anchoring, whether a CS hidden state aligns closer to its source or target language counterpart. Across diverse MLLMs, Anchor Bias reveals a consistent grammar-frame effect: source-framed CS stays source-anchored, whereas target-framed CS shifts target-ward and shows larger Question Answering (QA) degradation. Motivated by this representational pattern, we propose CANVAS (Contextual Anchor-based Neural Vector Alignment Steering), an inference-time intervention that extracts a source-side canvas from the input and softly steers target-language hidden states toward the source anchor during prefill. CANVAS consistently recovers QA F1 across MLLMs and CS conditions, showing that internal anchoring signals provide an actionable target for mitigating CS inference failures.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A Model-Driven Approach for Developing Families of Reinforcement Learning Environments

arXiv:2606.20324v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Virtual training environments are software-intensive systems in which reinforcement learning (RL) agents learn, adapt, and demonstrate meaningful behavior. Virtual training environments offer a safe and cost-efficient alternative to training agents in real-world settings. However, to converge, most realistic RL problems require training in multiple, mostly similar but slightly different environments - i.e., families of environment variants. The typical development process of environment families is a labor-intensive and error-prone manual endeavor that does not scale well. To alleviate these issues, in this paper, we propose a model-driven approach for developing families of RL training environments. To obtain the family of environments, we develop an approach and prototype tool. In our approach, a hybrid genetic algorithm - a combination of population-based global search and heuristic local search - generates environment families. Mutations and constraints are expressed as model transformations and are operationalized into a search process by a state-of-the-art model transformation engine. We demonstrate the soundness of our approach in a wildfire mitigation scenario and curriculum learning - a particular learning paradigm that relies on environment families.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Contaminated Collaboration: Measuring Gender Bias Transfer in LLM-Assisted Student Writing

Gender bias in LLMs has been studied extensively in model outputs, with biased prompts shown to amplify stereotyped generations. Whether such bias propagates into text produced by humans who use these systems, however, remains underexplored. We investigate whether gender bias in an LLM writing assistant transfers into career plan essays written by students. We first verify that a gender-biased prompt induces gender-differentiated language in LLM-generated essays, while a neutral prompt does not. We then recruited participants (N = 123) in a controlled environment to write career plan essays for paired biographical profiles differing only in gender under three conditions: no AI assistance, neutral LLM assistance, or gender-biased LLM assistance. Students in the biased condition produced essays with a significantly larger agentic gap and more gender-stereotypic occupation suggestions than those in the control and neutral conditions. Our results also reveal that this bias transfer is asymmetric: agency is suppressed in female-target essays while male-target writing remains largely unaffected. Our findings highlight the risk of bias propagation in AI-assisted writing, calling for fairness-aware design in educational AI tools.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

CSPO: Constraint-Sensitive Policy Optimization for Safe Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.14415v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Safe reinforcement learning (Safe RL) aims to maximize expected return while satisfying safety constraints, typically modeled as Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs). While primal-dual methods scale well to deep RL, they often suffer from delayed constraint correction, leading to oscillatory behavior and prolonged safety violations. In this paper, we propose Constraint-Sensitive Policy Optimization (CSPO), a first-order primal-dual method that incorporates local constraint sensitivity into policy updates. CSPO augments the primal objective with a constraint-sensitive correction derived from the shortest signed distance to the safety boundary, enabling smarter recovery steps back to safety, compensating for delayed Lagrange multiplier updates, reducing oscillations near the boundary, and preserving the KKT solutions of the original constrained problem. Experiments on navigation and locomotion benchmarks demonstrate that CSPO achieves faster safety recovery and high reward preservation, resulting in higher constrained returns compared to state-of-the-art primal-dual and penalty-based methods

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A Spatio-Temporal Expert Prefetching Framework for Efficient MoE-based LLM Inference

arXiv:2606.15453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) based large language models (LLMs), such as Qwen and DeepSeek, have recently emerged as an effective approach to improving model capacity without proportionally increasing computational cost. By replacing the conventional feed-forward network in dense LLMs with a set of experts and activating only a subset of them for each input token, MoE models significantly increase the total number of parameters while keeping the per-token computation relatively manageable. However, this dynamic and irregular expert activation pattern also introduces substantial expert loading overhead during inference, since the required experts must be fetched on demand according to token-dependent routing results. As a result, expert loading latency becomes a major source of performance and energy inefficiency. To this end, we first perform a comprehensive analysis of expert selection behavior in various MoE-based LLMs and applications, including language understanding and code generation. Our analysis reveals that, within each application domain, expert requests exhibit strong correlation across both adjacent MoE layers and consecutive decoding tokens, making future expert activations predictable. Based on this insight, we propose ST-MoE, a spatio-temporal expert prefetching framework that proactively stages experts ahead of use to overlap expert loading with ongoing computation. ST-MoE combines a lightweight runtime prediction mechanism that preserves the original routing behavior with a reconfigurable hardware design that efficiently supports dynamic expert prefetching. The combined effect of the prediction mechanism with the supporting hardware significantly improves MoE inference performance and energy efficiency while preserving model inference accuracy.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Large Language Model Agents Are Not Always Faithful Self-Evolvers

Self-evolving large language model (LLM) agents continually improve by accumulating and reusing past experience, yet it remains unclear whether they faithfully rely on that experience to guide their behavior. We present the first systematic investigation of experience faithfulness, the causal dependence of an agent's decisions on the experience it is given, in self-evolving LLM agents. Using controlled causal interventions on both raw and condensed forms of experience, we comprehensively evaluate four representative frameworks across 13 LLM backbones and 9 environments. Our analysis uncovers a striking asymmetry: while agents consistently depend on raw experience, they often disregard or misinterpret condensed experience, even when it is the only experience provided. This gap persists across single- and multi-agent configurations and across backbone scales. We trace its underlying causes to three factors: the semantic limitations of condensed content, internal processing biases that suppress experience, and task regimes where pretrained priors already suffice. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions about self-evolving methods and underscore the need for more faithful and reliable approaches to experience integration.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Trainable Quantum Channels as Computational Primitives for Quantum Learning

arXiv:2606.15808v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Variational quantum learning is traditionally constrained to unitary dynamics, often treating quantum channels as detrimental noise. In this work, we reformulate the quantum channels as trainable computational primitives and establish a non-unitary quantum machine learning framework grounded in open-system dynamics. We demonstrate that the outputs of channel-enhanced quantum models form a structured superposition of multiple functional components. Each component is governed by an effective observable whose spectrum can be adaptively modulated during training, a significant departure from the spectral invariance in unitary transformations. Moreover, the proposed framework generalizes conventional unitary quantum models by retaining them as a special case while introducing additional non-unitary degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we reveal that trainable quantum channels enrich the optimization geometry through ensemble-averaged gradient and additional optimization directions induced by the Kraus operators. Empirical evaluations on classification tasks using trainable amplitude-damping and phase-damping channels confirm enhanced optimization dynamics and predictive performance. Our work provides a principled approach for leveraging quantum channels as trainable resources and advances the design of high-performance quantum learning architectures.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Explicit Context-Driven Neural Acoustic Modeling for High-Fidelity RIR Generation

arXiv:2509.15210v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Realistic sound simulation plays a critical role in many applications. A key element in sound simulation is the room impulse response (RIR), which characterizes how sound propagates within a given space. Recent studies have applied neural implicit methods to learn RIR using context information collected from the environment, such as scene images. However, these approaches do not effectively leverage explicit geometric information from the environment. To further exploit neural implicit models with direct geometric features, we present MiNAF, which queries a rough room mesh at given locations and extracts distance distributions as an explicit representation of local context. Our approach demonstrates that incorporating explicit local geometric features can better guide the model in generating more accurate RIR predictions. Through comparisons with conventional and state-of-the-art methods, we show that MiNAF performs competitively across various evaluation metrics.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Moebius: 0.2B Lightweight Image Inpainting Framework with 10B-Level Performance

While 10B-level industrial foundation models have pushed the boundaries of image inpainting, their prohibitive computational costs severely hinder practical deployment. Constructing a highly optimized task-specific specialist offers a promising solution; however, extreme structural compression inevitably triggers a severe representation bottleneck. To conquer this, we propose Moebius, a highly efficient lightweight inpainting framework. We systematically reconstruct the diffusion backbone by introducing the Local-$\lambda$ Mix Interaction ($L\lambda MI$) block. Comprising Local-$\lambda$ and Interactive-$\lambda$ modules, it elegantly summarizes spatial contexts and global semantic priors into fixed-size linear matrices, preserving complex latent interactions while drastically shedding parameters. Furthermore, to unlock the full representational capacity of this highly compact architecture, we synergistically pair it with an adaptive multi-granularity distillation strategy. Operating strictly within the latent space to avoid expensive pixel-space decoding, this strategy dynamically balances multiple gradient-based losses to achieve high-fidelity alignment. Extensive experiments across natural and portrait benchmarks demonstrate that this optimal synergy enables Moebius to rival or even surpass the generation quality of the 10B-level industrial generalist FLUX.1-Fill-Dev. Remarkably, Moebius achieves this using less than 2\% of the parameters (0.22B vs. 11.9B) while delivering a $>15\times$ acceleration in total inference time, setting a new efficiency standard for high-fidelity inpainting. Project page at https://hustvl.github.io/Moebius.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Data Intelligence Agents: Interpreting, Modeling, and Querying Enterprise Data via Autonomous Coding Agents

arXiv:2606.19319v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Production data integration is bottlenecked by repeated, lossy handoffs between data owners, engineers, and analysts who must collaboratively discover, structure, and query enterprise data. We present Data Intelligence Agents (DIA), a system of three agents (Data Interpreter, Schema Creator, and Query Generator) that compresses this workflow by treating autonomous coding agents (ACAs) as a first-class abstraction: rather than emitting text, the agents generate, execute, validate, and repair concrete artifacts, draw on a shared memory for experience reuse, and surface each for review by domain experts. DIA is deployed in production for enterprise customers. We study the Query Generator in depth and evaluate it in fully autonomous mode across seven SQL benchmarks spanning four task categories and four dialects. It matches or surpasses the best published results on all seven, demonstrating that an architecture grounded in execution, built on ACAs and a shared memory, generalizes across the data intelligence workload with adaptation confined to natural-language instructions.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events – from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs – remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

22.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Building user-driven climate adaptation products

Climate adaptation products have traditionally been developed using a supply-driven model reliant on available climate information, leading to usability gaps1–4. To better meet user needs, the climate services field has recognized a need to shift towards a demand-driven model emphasizing co-production, that is, user-driven, scientifically informed products created through shared knowledge practices1–5. However, co-production can be challenging, especially for researchers unfamiliar with the approach or for digital and software-based products with complex user needs2,5–8. User-centred design, from the human–computer interaction field, offers a process that could complement co-production approaches to product development, yet its potential remains underexplored2. Here we show how user-centred design can be integrated into, and strengthen, co-production approaches for building user-driven climate adaptation products. Through a systematic review of the co-production and user-centred design literature, we identify key processes, mechanisms and best practices for both approaches. Our findings offer practical guidance for researchers and propose an integrated approach for developing climate adaptation products that are useful, usable and used. A systematic review and analysis shows how user-centred design can be integrated into, and strengthen, co-production approaches for building user-driven climate adaptation products.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with Application to GPU Data

arXiv:2606.20451v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Competing risks are commonly observed in engineering fields and can bring challenges to time-to-event data modeling when the application scenarios are complicated. Recently, deep neural networks have received great attention for prediction with competing risks, due to their flexibility and high learning capability. However, the complexity of neural network structure brings extra difficulty in hyperparameter tuning based on different data inputs. Additionally, when an engineered system has complex physical structures with multiple hierarchical levels, treating all structural levels as a single group of inputs may fail to capture critical information. To address the issues, we propose a Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net) for failure time prediction under cause-specific competing risks framework. Our approach associates neural network structure with data structures, and allows different covariate groups to impact the failure prediction through separate sub-networks. The neural network is constructed based on a cause-specific competing risks model. The SSH-Net outputs cause-specific hazard functions, and utilizes the penalized log-likelihood as the loss function. The prediction accuracy of SSH-Net is validated through simulation studies by evaluating the Brier score, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted cause-specific cumulative incident function. We further demonstrate the model's ability to predict failure time distribution functions using the Titan GPU failure time data.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Avidity of anti-pertussis toxin antibodies is associated with symptomatic Bordetella pertussis infection in a novel controlled human infection model

Background The association between functional antibody responses following Bordetella pertussis infection and symptomatic disease remains unclear. We characterized the maturation of anti-pertussis toxin (PT) IgG avidity after human challenge with B. pertussis and determined its association with symptomatic infection. Methods Healthy adults were intranasally inoculated with live B. pertussis organisms in a controlled human infection model and monitored for development of pertussis symptoms (NCT05136599). Serum samples were collected one day before inoculation and at 14, 28, 56, 180, and 365 days post challenge. Anti PT IgG avidity was tested using a titration of ammonium isothiocyanate (the bond breaking agent) to quantify a wide range of antibody avidities from low to very-high. Associations between covariates and avidity were examined using linear regression models, and high dimensional analyses were used to integrate all data. Findings Anti PT IgG avidity increased in both symptomatic (n=20) and asymptomatic (n=10) participants after the challenge, reached maximum levels at day 56, and then declined through day 365. Symptomatic participants developed significantly higher levels of high- and very high-avidity anti-PT antibodies at 28, 56, 180, and 365 days post-challenge compared with those who remained asymptomatic. In multivariate analyses, symptomatic infection was associated with higher levels of high and very high avidity anti-PT IgG at day180 and365 after challenge. Distinct avidity profiles in symptomatic vs asymptomatic participants emerged at day28 onwards, with the former group having higher levels of antibodies with higher avidities. However, levels of medium-high, high and very high avidity antibodies in symptomatic participants were lower at day 365 after challenge compared to their peak levels. Interpretation Anti-PT IgG avidity was associated with symptomatic B. pertussis infection and thus may serve as a surrogate of clinical disease outcome. These results highlight that antibody avidity provides an additional functional assay besides antibody quantitation to dissect immune responses to pertussis. Further investigation of anti PT IgG avidity should be pursued in natural pertussis outbreaks to determine whether it might be used to differentiate symptomatic from asymptomatic infections for epidemiologic purposes.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Vero: An Open RL Recipe for General Visual Reasoning

What does it take to build a visual reasoner that works across charts, science, spatial understanding, and open-ended tasks? The strongest vision-language models (VLMs) suggest that broad visual reasoning is within reach, yet their closed data and reinforcement learning (RL) pipelines make their gains difficult to study, reproduce, or extend. We introduce Vero, a family of fully open VLMs that match or exceed existing open-weight models across diverse visual reasoning tasks. We scale RL data and rewards across six broad task categories, constructing Vero-600K, a 600K-sample dataset from 59 datasets, and designing task-routed rewards that handle heterogeneous answers. Across VeroEval, our 30-benchmark suite, Vero-600K outperforms existing RL datasets under controlled comparisons. Applied to five starting models, Vero variants gain 2.9-5.4 points on average over their initial models. Notably, Vero-Qwen3I-8B, trained on the Instruct model, surpasses Qwen3-VL-8B-Thinking by 3.8 points on average without additional distillation. Systematic ablations reveal that different task categories elicit distinct reasoning patterns and that broad gains depend on learning them jointly rather than in isolation. All data, code, and models are publicly available.