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01.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Characterisation of disease progression in hantavirus haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome

Hantaviruses can cause haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). This is a clinically variable disease in which severe outcomes are hypothesized to arise from dysregulated host responses. To characterise this, longitudinal, label-free plasma proteomics was used to compare disease progression in a unique well-defined cohort of patients infected with either Dobrava virus (DOBV) or Puumala virus (PUUV) hantaviruses. Patients were stratified by clinical severity. The average viral load in the first available sample from hospitalized patients was higher in those who went on to have severe infection, and higher in patients infected with DOBV. There was marked separation of infected patients from controls across early, mid and late disease, including after viral RNA clearance, suggesting a sustained systemic host-response signature. Proteomic signatures were consistent with a strong acute-phase response in both mild and severe disease. There was evidence of activation of the adaptive humoral response at later stages. Hierarchical clustering identified severity-associated pathways linked to endothelial dysfunction, thrombocytopenia, vascular leakage and renal injury. These findings define a durable plasma proteomic signature of hantavirus disease and support a model in which severe HFRS is driven by persistent inflammatory, complement and platelet/coagulation pathway activation rather than viral burden alone.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Intermittent time series forecasting: local vs global models

arXiv:2601.14031v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Forecasting intermittent time series, which contain zeros, is a crucial challenge in supply chains as inventory policies require probabilistic forecasts to establish safety levels. Intermittent time series are commonly forecast using local models, trained individually on each time series. In the last years global models, trained on a large collection of time series, have become popular for time series forecasting. Global models are often based on neural networks or gradient boosted trees. We carry out the first study comparing state-of-the-art probabilistic local and global models on intermittent time series. For global models we consider three different distribution heads suitable for intermittent time series: negative binomial, hurdle-shifted negative binomial and Tweedie. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first use of the latter two with neural networks. We perform experiments on five datasets comprising overall more than 40'000 real-world time series. Among global models, TiDE, a simple neural network architecture, achieves the best accuracy; it also consistently outperforms local models and has lower computational requirements. Large global models are instead much more computationally demanding and less accurate. Among the distribution heads, the Tweedie provides the best estimates of the highest quantiles.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Unlocking air traffic flow prediction through microscopic aircraft-state modeling

arXiv:2605.10083v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series. However, traffic dynamics are governed by aircraft states and their interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information, including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling paradigm that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense exhibits admirable predictive accuracy and robustness over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that aircraft-state situation modeling provides a promising alternative to conventional time-series forecasting in air traffic flow management.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Riemann-Bench: A Benchmark for Moonshot Mathematics

arXiv:2604.06802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent AI systems have achieved gold-medal-level performance on the International Mathematical Olympiad, demonstrating remarkable proficiency at competition-style problem solving. However, competition mathematics represents only a narrow slice of mathematical reasoning: problems are drawn from limited domains, require minimal advanced machinery, and can often reward insightful tricks over deep theoretical knowledge. We introduce Riemann-Bench, a private benchmark of expert-curated problems designed to evaluate AI systems on research-level mathematics that goes far beyond the olympiad frontier. Problems are authored by Ivy League mathematics professors, graduate students, and PhD-holding IMO medalists, and routinely took their authors weeks to solve independently. Each problem undergoes double-blind verification by two independent domain experts who must solve the problem from scratch, and yields a unique, closed-form solution assessed by programmatic verifiers. We evaluate frontier models as unconstrained research agents, with full access to coding tools, search, and open-ended reasoning, using an unbiased statistical estimator computed over 100 independent runs per problem. Our results reveal that all frontier models currently score below 10%, exposing a substantial gap between olympiad-level problem solving and genuine research-level mathematical reasoning. By keeping the benchmark fully private, we ensure that measured performance reflects authentic mathematical capability rather than memorization of training data.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

SpatialSV: Internalizing Interpretable 3D Spatial Awareness in MLLMs via Task-Oriented Visual Supervision

Unlocking the spatial intelligence of multimodal large language model (MLLMs) is crucial for understanding and interacting with the 3D world. Prevailing approaches typically inject spatial priors via external tools, which impose significant inference overhead, or rely on latent feature distillation, which remains uninterpretable and lacks fine-grained geometric constraints. To address these issues, we propose SpatialSV, a framework designed to internalize robust 3D spatial awareness within MLLMs while simultaneously offering inherent interpretability. Deviating from passive feature imitation, SpatialSV employs task-oriented visual supervision, compelling the model to actively lift its 2D visual features into explicit 3D representations, including depth maps, camera poses, and point clouds. Crucially, this 2D-to-3D lifting process provides a transparent window into the model's representations: the resulting 3D reconstructions serve as an intuitive proxy for visualizing and diagnosing the quality of the model's intrinsic spatial knowledge. Extensive experiments across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of SpatialSV in enhancing and interpreting MLLMs' spatial intelligence. Furthermore, the framework exhibits strong generalization in semi-supervised settings, validating its potential to leverage unlabeled visual data for scalable, interpretable spatial representation learning.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

IB-HFN: Information Bottleneck-Driven SAR-Optical Fusion Network for High-Fidelity Cloud Removal

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-assisted optical cloud removal aims to recover surface information obscured by clouds in optical remote sensing images by exploiting complementary SAR observations. Existing multimodal fusion methods typically rely on direct spatial concatenation and pixel-wise supervision, which can propagate SAR speckle noise into optical reconstruction and lead to over-smoothed results. To address these limitations, we propose an Information Bottleneck-driven High-Fidelity Network (IB-HFN) for SAR-assisted optical cloud removal. IB-HFN employs a dual-stream backbone to preserve modality-specific representations before deep semantic fusion, thereby mitigating premature cross-modal contamination. At the fusion stage, we introduce a Spatial Information Bottleneck Fusion module that compresses SAR features through a channel-wise variational information bottleneck to suppress unstructured speckle noise. In parallel, a local-global gating mechanism predicts clear-sky regions and routes reliable optical details through a Dirac-initialized skip connection, decoupling noise suppression from texture preservation. We further develop a joint optimization strategy that integrates feature-level bottleneck regularization with image-level constraints on reconstruction accuracy, structural consistency, spectral fidelity, and contrastive sharpness. A dynamic weighting schedule balances these objectives to stabilize training and reduce hazy artifacts. Experiments on the SEN12MS-CR dataset under challenging spatio-temporal splits demonstrate that IB-HFN achieves superior structural preservation and spectral fidelity over existing methods.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Direct Advantage Estimation for Scalable and Sample-efficient Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.20411v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) has been shown to improve the sample efficiency of deep reinforcement learning algorithms. However, its reliance on full environment observability limits its applicability in realistic settings, and its requirement to model transition probabilities incurs substantial computational overhead for high-dimensional observations. In the present work, we address both limitations. First, we extend the theoretical framework of DAE to partially observable domains with minimal modifications. Second, we reduce its computational complexity by introducing discrete latent dynamics models that efficiently approximate transition probabilities. We evaluate our approach on the Arcade Learning Environment and find that DAE scales effectively with function approximator capacity while retaining high sample efficiency.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Aligning Quantum Operators with Large Language Models

arXiv:2606.13811v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Can Large Language Models (LLMs) understand and reason about quantum operators? Despite their remarkable capabilities in mathematics and symbolic reasoning, LLMs remain inherently blind to quantum representations such as unitary matrices. In this work, we take a step toward bridging this gap by introducing an approach that maps unitary operators into the latent space of an LLM, enabling unified modeling over quantum and linguistic inputs. We instantiate this idea on Clifford+T circuit synthesis over a Pauli rotation gate set, where our model achieves results competitive with state-of-the-art methods and scales consistently with training data, with no signs of saturation. Our approach further enables language-conditioned synthesis, allowing gate constraints unseen during training to be specified directly in natural language. This work suggests a path toward quantum–aware foundation models that can natively interpret and reason about quantum operations, which could have broader implications reaching across quantum compilation and algorithm discovery.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Measuring Non-Stabilizerness in an SU(2) Lattice Gauge Theory

arXiv:2606.14842v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: One of the goals of quantum simulation is to provide novel insights into quantum systems, such as the gauge theories that are relevant for high-energy and nuclear physics. Recent years have seen rapid improvements in both the hardware and software necessary for these simulations. A central consideration in the design of such simulations is the quantum complexity of a given quantum state. This work takes a step towards studying a specific kind of complexity, namely the non-stabilizerness, in a simple yet non-trivial system: SU(2) lattice gauge theory of two plaquettes. The non-stabilizerness of low-energy eigenstates is studied and the implications for quantum simulations are discussed. The real-time evolution of this system is simulated on ibm_marrakesh and the non-stabilizerness is measured using a random measurement protocol. New techniques enhancing the efficiency of this protocol are developed, including both a new way to calculate the estimator for non-stabilizerness and a flexible error mitigation technique called Bit String Decoherence Renormalization. This mitigation method is central to accurately resolving the experimental time dependence of non-stabilizerness, and is anticipated to have broad applicability in digital quantum simulations.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Simulating Hate Speech Cascades with Multi-LLM Agents: Empirical Grounding, Modeling Fidelity, and Intervention Strategies

作者:

Faithful modeling of hateful content propagation on online platforms remains an open problem for moderation research. Classical cascade models that do not explicitly represent the profile, community, and content factors associated with hateful-content propagation may yield moderation strategies that behave less effectively when deployed in real-world scenarios. Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems can, in principle, make each reshare decision depend on the user's profile, the surrounding community, and the post's content, but it remains unclear whether this added flexibility actually reproduces real hateful cascades more faithfully than classical baselines. We study three hateful Bluesky cascades and a size-matched benign control. In the empirical Bluesky data, we found that: 97.4–99.7\% of reposters take a hostile stance; toxicity-engagement homophily is higher on the diffusion tree than on the follower graph for hateful cascades; topology is star-like for the hateful cascades (most reposts come directly from the root) versus tree-like for the benign cascade (reposts propagate through multi-hop chains). In simulation, a multi-LLM-agent simulator reproduces the stance monoculture and the toxicity-delta direction. A structured ablation identifies agent heterogeneity as the leading fidelity factor, and amplifier targeting on dense networks yields 7.5–12.9\% reduction at 5.7\% benign collateral.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Strategic Decision Support for AI Agents

arXiv:2606.12587v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traditionally, decision support studies how humans use machine learning models to make better decisions. In modern agentic systems, this division of roles is increasingly reversed: AI agents act on behalf of users, while humans and tools becomes support mechanisms around them. This role reversal brings reliability concerns to the forefront, since agentic errors can be consequential and agent behavior must remain aligned with human goals and constraints. Departing from the classical view of decision support, we revisit its two basic principles, the cost–value tradeoff of seeking support and the role of uncertainty quantification, in a setting where AI agents are the central actors. We propose a framework for strategic decision support for AI agents through an optimization problem that minimizes support usage subject to controlling a counterfactual missed-support error: the probability that the agent acts alone on instances where support would have materially improved its output. At the population level, we show that the optimal policy is a threshold rule on the value of support. Building on this structure, we develop an online algorithm that adaptively thresholds such a score and uses randomized exploration to control missed-support error without distributional assumptions. We further introduce a calibration-on-the-fly method that reduces unnecessary support calls online. We instantiate this framework across diverse scenarios, including information gathering, human–AI collaboration, and tool use, showing how each can be modeled through the same strategic decision-support lens. Experiments across these settings show that our method reliably controls the target error while substantially reducing support usage in practice.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Online Realizable Regression and Applications for ReLU Networks

arXiv:2602.19172v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Realizable online regression can behave very differently from online classification. Even without any margin or stochastic assumptions, realizability may enforce horizon-free (finite) cumulative loss under metric-like losses, even when the analogous classification problem has an infinite mistake bound. We study realizable online regression in the adversarial model under losses that satisfy an approximate triangle inequality (approximate pseudo-metrics). Recent work of Attias et al. shows that the minimax realizable cumulative loss is characterized by the scaled Littlestone/online dimension $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}$, but this quantity can be difficult to analyze. Our main technical contribution is a generic potential method that upper bounds $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}$ by a concrete Dudley-type entropy integral that depends only on covering numbers of the hypothesis class under the induced sup pseudo-metric. We define an entropy potential $\Phi(\mathcal{H})=\int_{0}^{diam(\mathcal{H})} \log N(\mathcal{H},\varepsilon)\,d\varepsilon$, where $N(\mathcal{H},\varepsilon)$ is the $\varepsilon$-covering number of $\mathcal{H}$, and show that for every $c$-approximate pseudo-metric loss, $\mathbb{D}_{\mathrm{onl}}(\mathcal{H})\le O(c)\,\Phi(\mathcal{H})$. In particular, polynomial metric entropy implies $\Phi(\mathcal{H})d$, otherwise infinite), and for bounded-norm $k$-ReLU networks separate regression (finite loss, even $\widetilde O(k^2)$, and $O(1)$ for one ReLU) from classification (impossible already for $k=2,d=1$).

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

UniversalRAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation over Corpora of Diverse Modalities and Granularities

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has shown substantial promise in improving factual accuracy by grounding model responses with external knowledge relevant to queries. However, most existing approaches are limited to a text-only corpus, and while recent efforts have extended RAG to other modalities such as images and videos, they typically operate over a single modality-specific corpus. In contrast, real-world queries vary widely in the type of knowledge they require, which a single type of knowledge source cannot address. To address this, we introduce UniversalRAG, an any-to-any RAG framework designed to retrieve and integrate knowledge from heterogeneous sources with diverse modalities and granularities. Specifically, motivated by the observation that forcing all modalities into a unified representation space derived from a single aggregated corpus causes a modality gap, where the retrieval tends to favor items from the same modality as the query, we propose modality-aware routing, which dynamically identifies the most appropriate modality-specific corpus and performs targeted retrieval within it, and further justify its effectiveness with a theoretical analysis. Moreover, beyond modality, we organize each modality into multiple granularity levels, enabling fine-tuned retrieval tailored to the complexity and scope of the query. We validate UniversalRAG on 10 benchmarks of multiple modalities, showing its superiority over various modality-specific and unified baselines.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

TransitNet: A Compact Attention-Augmented Deep Learning Framework for Low-SNR Transit Blind Searches

arXiv:2606.18932v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by the observational incompleteness of intermediate-to-long-period Earth-size planets, we present TransitNet, a compact attention-augmented deep-learning framework for low-SNR transit blind searches. To enable realistic method development and objective threshold calibration under blind-search conditions, we develop a unified dataset construction, benchmarking, and threshold-selection framework. On recovery benchmarks constructed from unseen Kepler targets, TransitNet attains 95.2 percent accuracy in the challenging SNR range of 6 to 8 and outperforms both TLS and BLS, achieving ROC-AUC and PR-AP values of 0.974 and 0.982, respectively. In an injected Earth-size and sub-Earth-size transit recovery experiment, TransitNet achieves a recovery rate of 93.0 percent, substantially exceeding those of TLS (63.1 percent) and BLS (60.0 percent). In addition to detection, TransitNet provides attention-based estimates of transit windows and midpoints. On an independent evaluation set, 97.4 percent of injected transits are fully covered by the estimated transit window. Applied to real Kepler observations, the model successfully recovers all 34 selected confirmed Kepler planets, with a mean absolute transit midpoint error of 1.24 hours. The model combines a compact footprint of about 1.5 MB with high inference efficiency, yielding speed-ups of about 12 to 25 times relative to CPU-TLS and about 4 to 5 times relative to CPU-BLS. These results demonstrate that TransitNet provides an accurate, scalable, and computationally efficient framework for low-SNR transit blind searches in the tested regime and motivate its extension to longer-period Earth-size planet searches.

15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Unveiling coherent dynamics in non-Markovian open quantum systems: exact expression and recursive perturbation expansion

arXiv:2506.04097v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a systematic framework to derive the effective Hamiltonian governing the coherent dynamics of non-Markovian open quantum systems. By applying the minimal dissipation principle, we uniquely isolate the coherent contribution to the time-local generator of the reduced dynamics. We derive a general expression for the effective Hamiltonian and develop a recursive perturbative expansion that expresses it in terms of system-bath interaction terms and bath correlation functions. This expansion provides a systematic tool for analyzing energy renormalization effects across different coupling regimes. Applying our framework to paradigmatic spin systems, we reveal how environmental correlations influence energy shifts and eigenbasis rotations, offering new insights into strong-coupling effects and non-Markovian quantum thermodynamics.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

MolmoMotion: Forecasting Point Trajectories in 3D with Language Instruction

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

CORA: Analyzing and bridging thinking-answer gap in Multimodal RLVR via Consistency-Oriented Reasoning Alignment

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has successfully elicited the reasoning capabilities of large language models, motivating its extension to multimodal scenarios. Existing methods primarily focus on improving the visual coverage of reasoning traces and mitigating visual hallucinations, but underestimate the semantic inconsistency between the reasoning process and the final answer. In this paper, we delve into thinking-answer inconsistency in RLVR for large vision-language models (LVLMs), showing thorough analyses of rollouts collected throughout Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) training process and post-RLVR evaluation outputs that this issue persists during training and remains present during inference. Motivated by the analysis, we propose Consistency-Oriented Reasoning Alignment (CORA), which introduces thinking-answer semantic consistency into RLVR through a lightweight plug-and-play consistency reward model, and further incorporates Hybrid Reward Advantage Splitting (HRAS) to stably coordinate task and consistency optimization. Extensive experiments across representative multimodal reasoning benchmarks and mainstream LVLMs show that CORA improves task performance while effectively mitigating thinking-answer inconsistency, leading to more faithful reasoning traces.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Enteral docosahexaenoic and arachidonic acid supplementation and retinopathy of prematurity: a re-analysis of randomized controlled trials in preterm infants

Background. A recent meta-analysis by Dang et al. [1] concluded that enteral supplementation with docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), with or without arachidonic acid (ARA) did not significantly affect retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) outcomes in preterm infants. Of four eligible trials that supplemented both DHA and ARA, only two contributed to each ROP outcome analyzed, and severe ROP was not assessed. Methods. We replicated the eligibility criteria and search strategy of Dang et al., restricted to trials that supplemented both DHA and ARA, and reanalyzed three ROP endpoints (any ROP, ROP requiring treatment, and severe ROP [stage 3 and/or treated]) using complete outcome records from all eligible trials. Crude risk ratios (RR) were pooled by Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effect meta-analysis. Gestational age-adjusted odds ratios (adjOR) were pooled on the log scale by inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis with restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation of between-study variance and Hartung-Knapp confidence intervals. Results. Five trials were included; one trial was identified in our replicated search but was excluded by Dang et al. without a stated rationale. The pooled estimate for any ROP was consistent with Dang et al. (RR 0.87 [95% CI 0.71-1.08]; adjOR 0.70 [0.46-1.08]). For ROP requiring treatment, the crude RR suggested a lower risk but did not reach statistical significance (RR 0.60 [0.35-1.04]), whereas the gestational age-adjusted estimate indicated lower odds (adjOR 0.47 [0.23-0.94]). For severe ROP, DHA+ARA supplementation produced a significant protective effect in both unadjusted and adjusted models (RR 0.56 [0.36-0.86]; adjOR 0.42 [0.19-0.96]). Conclusions. When all eligible trials contribute to each endpoint and severe ROP is included as an outcome, enteral DHA+ARA supplementation reduces severe ROP and is associated with lower odds of ROP requiring treatment after adjustment for gestational age. These findings differ from the conclusions of Dang et al. and support reconsideration of DHA+ARA supplementation as a strategy to reduce sight-threatening ROP in preterm infants.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Bayesian Tensor Decomposition with Diffusion Model Prior

arXiv:2606.03212v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Low-rank tensor decomposition (TD) is usually effective on clean, fully observed data, but it often degrades under severe missingness or noise. Low-rankness is itself a useful but limited structural prior, and additional handcrafted priors (e.g., sparsity or smoothness) still fall short of capturing the rich statistics of real-world data. To compensate for this weak inductive bias under heavy corruption, one would like to inject a learned, data-driven prior; however, the state-of-the-art diffusion models are not readily compatible with current TD and tractable posterior inference. To address these challenges, we introduce DiffBCP, a hybrid-prior Bayesian CP decomposition framework that couples a cumulative shrinkage process prior over the CP factors for automatic rank selection with an off-the-shelf pre-trained diffusion model as an implicit data prior on the reconstructed tensor. To make posterior inference tractable despite the coupling among the likelihood, low-rank constraint, and diffusion prior, we develop a split Gibbs sampler: CP factors admit conjugate updates, while the diffusion block is sampled via low-rank-guided denoising. A noise-adaptive coupling schedule further reduces sensitivity to hand-tuned annealing. Experiments on image inpainting and denoising, including high-resolution out-of-distribution images, show consistent gains over Bayesian, nonlinear, and plug-and-play TD baselines.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

Linking mpox wastewater surveillance with reported clinical cases in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

The emergence of the novel monkeypox virus (MPXV) clade Ib in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring countries in late 2023 highlighted the need for rapid, scalable surveillance approaches to support outbreak detection and response. As part of the ODIN-Mpox project, wastewater surveillance (WWS) systems were established as an emergency public health measure in three Sub-Saharan African countries (DRC, Tanzania, and Burkina Faso) to evaluate the feasibility of wastewater-based monitoring for mpox and strengthen local surveillance capacity. Between January 2025 and April 2026, 117 wastewater samples were collected from selected sites and analyzed for MPXV DNA using targeted qPCR assays. Clinical mpox data were obtained from national surveillance systems and WHO reports to assess epidemiological linkages between wastewater detections and reported infections. Six wastewater samples tested positive for MPXV DNA. During the study period, DRC experienced the highest disease burden, with weekly reported cases peaking at about 3,000 in January 2025, while Tanzania reported a peak of 20 weekly cases in March 2025. No confirmed clinical cases were reported in Burkina Faso. No clear relationship was observed between reported case numbers and qPCR Ct values in positive wastewater samples. Despite the low detection frequency, the project demonstrated the operational feasibility of implementing MPXV wastewater surveillance in resource-limited settings and established laboratory capacity for environmental monitoring of emerging infectious diseases. Given the early stage of WWS implementation in the region, the study identified opportunities for further system strengthening, including optimization of sample processing and reporting workflows, improved access to laboratory supplies, and enhanced integration of environmental and clinical surveillance data streams. These findings highlight the value of WWS as a complementary component of integrated public health surveillance systems and emphasize the need for continued investment in laboratory capacity, harmonized methodologies, governance frameworks, and knowledge exchange to enhance outbreak preparedness and response in low-resource settings.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Stochastic epidemic model with varying infectivity and waning immunity: the law of large numbers with unbounded infectivity

arXiv:2606.11845v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We revisit the large population limit of our epidemic model with infection age dependent infectivity and progressive immunity waning, under the assumption that the supremum in $t$ of the random infectivity function has a finite expectation, while the previous proofs assumed that this supremum admits a deterministic upper bound.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

FORGE: Foundational Optimization Representations from Graph Embeddings

arXiv:2508.20330v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Combinatorial optimization problems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Still, learning-based approaches to accelerate combinatorial optimization often require solving a large number of difficult instances to collect training data, incurring significant computational cost. Existing learning-based methods require training dedicated models for each problem distribution, for each downstream task, severely limiting their scalability and generalization. We introduce Forge: Foundational Optimization Representations from Graph Embeddings, a framework that pre-trains a vector-quantized graph autoencoder on a large, diverse collection of mixed-integer programming (MIP) instances in an unsupervised manner, without relying on optimization solvers or optimal solutions. Vector quantization produces discrete code assignments that serve as a vocabulary for representing optimization instances. We evaluate Forge in both unsupervised and supervised settings. In the unsupervised setting, Forge embeddings effectively cluster unseen instances across problem domains and sizes. In the supervised setting, we fine-tune Forge embeddings and show that a single pre-trained model helps predicting both the integrality gap for cut-generation and variable hints for search guidance across multiple problem and size distributions. In both tasks, we improve the performance of a commercial optimization solver and outperform state-of-the-art learning-based methods. Finally, we open-source our training code, pre-trained Forge weights, and embeddings for multiple MIP distributions to foster further research in representation learning for optimization problems https://skadio.github.io/forge/

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

StarOR: Synergizing Tree Search and Test-Time Reinforcement Learning for Optimization Modeling

arXiv:2606.15197v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Optimization modeling is inherently hierarchical, requiring a precise sequence of symbolic commitments. Traditional learning-based automated optimization modeling methods improve modeling policies through large-scale annotated or curated training data, but are costly to adapt to new problem distributions. Meanwhile, one-shot generation remains brittle in hierarchical modeling, where early symbolic errors can propagate into invalid formulations. Test-time scaling offers a promising alternative by enabling structural exploration with additional instance-level computation; however, existing search-based methods typically rely on a fixed policy, causing repeated rollouts to inherit similar modeling biases and providing limited credit assignment for intermediate decisions. To address these limitations, we propose StarOR, a synergistic search-and-adaptation framework that couples MCTS with Test-Time Reinforcement Learning for optimization modeling. StarOR decomposes the modeling process into four stages and updates a transient LoRA adapter via GRPO at each non-terminal node. By using MCTS-generated siblings as local comparison sets, StarOR transforms search-time exploration into instance-specific policy refinement. Moreover, an unsupervised multi-faceted reward system provides fine-grained feedback for intermediate formulation decisions without ground-truth labels. Experiments across five optimization benchmarks show that StarOR achieves state-of-the-art performance even with a 4B backbone, outperforming existing methods and the frontier LLMs.

25.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

A Quantum Approach to Stochastic Optimization in Insurance Underwriting

arXiv:2605.01169v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The presence of stochastic elements in combinatorial optimization problems makes them particularly challenging, as such problems quickly become intractable for classical computers even at relatively small sizes. In this work, we propose a novel quantum-classical hybrid scheme for solving a class of stochastic optimization problems known as chance-constrained knapsack problems, in which item weights follow probability distributions and constraints may be violated within a specified risk tolerance. Our method employs knapsack-specific QAOA-based circuits to generate samples which, when combined with a new self-consistent classical recovery scheme introduced in this work, produce high-quality solutions. Experiments carried out on IBM Heron processors, using circuits with depths up to 177 and comprising 3443 gates acting on as many as 150 qubits, yield solutions that indicate performance comparable to classical optimization schemes. The proposed quantum-classical scheme paves the way to tackling such problems, with the potential to outperform approaches that rely solely on classical computation.