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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Block algebra for morphing circuits

作者:

arXiv:2606.12724v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Morphing circuits are a new paradigm for quantum error correction that relaxes hardware requirements. We present four constructions for CNOT-based CSS morphing circuits with explicit qubit connectivity degrees. All four constructions are specified in block algebra notation, with entries in algebras generated by permutation matrices. The first three are obtained by rewriting existing surface- and color-code morphing circuits; the fourth is a new three-round construction modeled on the 6.6.6 color code. The surface-code construction recovers the morphing circuit of Ref. [ST25] for two-block group algebra codes. Numerical search then instantiates these permutation matrices using regular representations of finite groups. [ST25] M. H. Shaw and B. M. Terhal, Phys. Rev. Lett. 134(9), 090602 (2025).

02.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Tox21mer, A transformer foundation model for Tox21 high-throughput concentration-response curves data

The U.S. Tox21 collaboration has generated a large reference library of high-throughput concentration-response assays. Here we present Tox21mer, a 43.5-million-parameter transformer that encodes each Tox21 concentration-response curve together with assay metadata into a 768-dimensional representation. Tox21mer was pretrained on ~2.5 million curves from 102 assay protocols and 6,727 compounds using masked-response reconstruction as the primary objective, with low-weight auxiliary supervision on assay outcome and AC50. To evaluate the learned representation, we trained lightweight probes on frozen embeddings from concentration-response curves of held-out compounds. The representation supported a macro-F1 of 0.985 for three-class outcome prediction (agonist, antagonist, inactive), a binary F1 of 0.994 for active/inactive prediction, and an R2 of 0.87 for log10(AC50). The learned embeddings formed coherent groupings by curve-class category. A masked-only pretraining variant retained near-baseline probe performance, indicating that the representation is learned largely from the self-supervised objective rather than from auxiliary labels. Ablation analyses further showed that predictive performance depends mainly on curve-level response-value distributions conditioned on assay context, with limited reliance on detailed within-curve ordering. Tox21mer thus provides a reusable foundation representation for Tox21 concentration-response data that can support extrapolation to untested compounds through integration with chemical features or distillation into chemistry-only student models for large-scale external screening.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Comparative Evaluation of Pretrained Large Language Models for Suicide Risk Prediction from Clinical Notes in U.S. Veterans

Background: Suicide remains a significant and potentially preventable cause of death among United States veterans. Predictive models based on structured electronic health record (EHR) data, including the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs' Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health-Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH-VET) program, aim to identify individuals at elevated risk for enhanced monitoring and follow-up. Increasing evidence suggests that unstructured clinical narratives contain additional psychosocial information that may enhance risk prediction when analyzed using natural language processing (NLP). However, optimal approaches for representing clinical text remain uncertain. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) enable contextual text representations that capture complex semantic relationships beyond traditional lexical methods. Methods: We compared the predictive performance of pretrained LLMs with classical bag-of-words (BoW) representations for suicide risk prediction using clinical notes from 27,241 veterans receiving care in the Veterans Health Administration. Patients were stratified by REACH-VET risk tier (low, moderate, high), and models were evaluated across prediction windows defined by note look-back periods (

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Characterizing the Impact of NVFP4 Quantization for Low-Power Edge AI Deployment

arXiv:2606.06527v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Energy-efficient neural-network inference at the edge requires reducing arithmetic cost, memory traffic, computation energy, and storage overhead while maintaining acceptable accuracy. This paper presents an ablation-focused study of NVFP4 quantization for edge-efficient neural networks, with emphasis on the relationship between activation precision, weight precision, block-size scaling, retraining, and model accuracy. NVFP4 activations are represented using 4-bit FP4 data, an FP8 block scale, and an FP32 tensor scale, enabling ultra-low precision inference while preserving activation dynamic range. A block-size ablation over six edge-efficient models shows that block size B = 16 provides a practical accuracy/storage trade-off, requiring only 4.5078 bits per input for N = 4096. A weight precision ablation further shows that FP8 and FP16 weights provide only modest gains over FP4 weights under the same NVFP4 activation path, suggesting that activation quantization and scaling dominate much of the accuracy behavior. To isolate the benefit of the NVFP4 data type, this work compares conventional unscaled FP4 activation inference and NVFP4 activation inference with and without retraining. The results show that conventional FP4 inference collapses accuracy for most compact models, while NVFP4 without retraining already recovers substantial accuracy by restoring activation dynamic range through FP8 block scaling and FP32 tensor scaling. When combined with retraining, NVFP4 achieves the best accuracy across the evaluated models, demonstrating the effectiveness of scaling-aware FP4 (NVFP4) inference. These findings provide general design guidance for hardware-software co-design of low power edge inference across a broad range of accelerator platforms, including GPUs, Tensor Cores, FPGAs, domain-specific AI accelerators, near-memory computing systems, and emerging edge-computing architectures.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Human genetic evidence is associated with drug approval across therapeutic areas: an observational analysis of 26,278 target-disease pairs with temporal validation and feature ablation

Genetic evidence is enriched among approved drug targets: in an observational analysis of 26,278 target-disease pairs from Open Targets and ChEMBL, targets with any genetic association had a 3.25-fold higher approval rate than those without (OR = 3.25, 95% CI 2.79-3.79, p = 1.91e-42). A target-level analysis accounting for non-independence of pairs sharing the same gene gave OR = 2.79 (bootstrap 95% CI 2.22-3.53); the oncology pair-level OR of 6.72 attenuates to 2.71 at the target level, illustrating how non-independence inflates area-specific estimates. The enrichment replicated in post-2015 approvals (OR = 3.51, p = 1.72e-8). Feature ablation across six evidence types revealed that literature mining alone accounts for most classifier performance (AUPRC = 0.099 versus 0.109 for all features), consistent with temporal leakage from post-approval publications. Excluding literature, remaining evidence types retain above-baseline signal (AUPRC = 0.084, 1.63x baseline). Sensitivity analyses bracket the pair-level OR between 3.25 and 4.93. Genetic evidence alone yields only a 1.0-percentage-point absolute AUPRC gain and the best model has poor calibration; the classifier has limited practical predictive value. We catalogue 1,433 genetically supported Phase 1/2 pairs as a hypothesis-generating resource. All findings are observational.

07.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Follow the Latent Roadmap: Navigating Revocable Decoding for Diffusion LLMs with Anchor Tokens

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) offer a promising avenue for parallel generation but face a trade-off between decoding speed and quality. While revocable decoding strategies attempt to mitigate errors by verifying and remasking tokens, they typically operate within a mixed-quality context. This leads to two critical failures: Error Propagation, where new tokens absorb toxic information from erroneous context, and Local Error Reinforcement, where errors mutually reinforce each other to evade detection. To alleviate these challenges, we propose ASRD (Anchor Supervised Revocable Decoding), a training-free framework that operates within the embedding space. ASRD explicitly decouples the decoding context into trusted Anchor Tokens, which are identified via temporal consistency, and uncertain candidates. Leveraging a dynamic Anchor Tokens Cache, we introduce two complementary mechanisms: (1) Anchor-Guided Generation, which injects entropy-weighted anchor signals into masked positions to implicitly rectify attention toward the reliable global skeleton; and (2) Anchor-Perturbed Verification, which applies orthogonal perturbations to uncertain candidate tokens, destabilizing and remasking errors driven by fragile local consensus. Extensive experiments on math and coding benchmarks demonstrate that ASRD outperforms recent remasking baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 6.4\% while accelerating inference throughput by up to 7.2$\times$.

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Photon anti-bunching in high harmonic generation

arXiv:2606.17620v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Photon anti-bunching is the direct evidence for the existence of photons without having a classical counterpart. Unlike bunching of photons, which can have a semi-classical description, the effect of photon anti-bunching can only be understood with quantized electromagnetic fields. However, for the process of high harmonic generation (HHG), where many photons of the driving field are upconverted to a single photon of higher energy, there is yet no clear evidence for the presence of individual photon emission. The key result of this work is the prediction of photon anti-bunching in the process of HHG, marking it the first theoretical discovery of non-classicality in the temporal correlations of HHG photons. While other non-classical signatures in HHG, such as sub-Poissonian statistics or squeezing, have been discussed for an ensemble of photons, the anti-bunching signature reported here is a signature of a single photon. This is achieved by using the recently developed Heisenberg picture approach for quantum optical HHG, revealing clear anti-bunching signatures in the intensity correlation function across the entire harmonic spectrum.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Quantum mechanics in configuration space in context

arXiv:2606.17622v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: To enhance the way in which wave-particle duality is implemented in the modelling of quantum mechanical systems, Bukhari et al. [New J. Phys. 27, 084501 (2025)] recently introduced an alternative approach to quantum mechanics, namely quantum mechanics in configuration space. This formalism is based on a physically motivated quantisation of Newtonian mechanics and promotes the classical position-velocity states (x,v) to pairwise distinguishable quantum states. The resulting |x,v> states form the basis of the Hilbert space of individual quantum mechanical particles and evolve along classical trajectories. In this paper, we consider the modelling of a mechanical particle in free space and put quantum mechanics in configuration space into context. It is shown that this formalism increases the continuity between quantum and classical mechanics by avoiding a conceptual inconsistency associated with the definition of momentum in canonical quantisation. In addition, we emphasise that standard quantum mechanics and quantum mechanics in configuration space are based on two distinct formulations of classical mechanics.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Multi-Modal Hyper-Graph Fusion for Low-Light Crowd Counting

Crowd counting is a fundamental task in computer vision. However, crowd counting in low-light environments remains largely underexplored, despite its practical importance in the real world. Existing methods mainly focus on well-lit scenes or rely on single-modality Red-Green-Blue (RGB) representations, which often become unreliable under extreme darkness and complex non-uniform illumination. To handle this problem, we construct three new low-light crowd counting benchmarks, which consist of two synthetic datasets, SHA\_Dark and SHB\_Dark, and a real-world benchmark LC-Crowd (Low-light Crowd Dataset). Inspired by Retinex-based physical modeling, we introduce depth and Canny edge cues as complementary geometric and structural priors to enhance the intrinsic reflectance representation under low-light conditions. We propose a Multi-Modal Hyper-Graph Fusion module, which formulates RGB appearance, depth geometry, and edge structure cues as nodes in a unified hyper-graph and explicitly captures their high-order complementary relationships via dynamic hyperedge construction and message passing. Furthermore, to adaptively allocate computation in dense prediction, we propose a Deformable Rectangular Sparse Attention (DRSA) module, which concentrates computation on informative regions through anchor-aware estimation and adaptive rectangular window modeling. Based on these designs, we develop a unified Low-Light Counting Network (LCNet) for robust low-light crowd counting. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves the best overall performance against existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. The code is in the supplementary material. The datasets will be made public upon acceptance.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

A Poisson Process Life Expectancy framework for optimising patient lifetime during chemotherapy

Cancer therapy balances between two competing objectives - treatment efficacy against the tumour and the risk of treatment related severe adverse events, including patient death. Most existing optimal control theory (OCT) formulations rely on optimising heuristic cost functionals that lack direct clinical interpretability. In clinical practice treatment efficacy and patient tolerability are primarily assessed through survival metrics and adverse event rates. Here we introduce the Continuous Lifetime Payoff (CLP), a novel OCT objective functional that directly links treatment decisions to patient survival. It explicitly incorporates tumour dynamics, tumour eradication, and patient mortality from tumour progression, drug-related toxicity and age. We fit age-related mortality from life tables and infer parameters from simulated survival data. The CLP provides a clinically grounded framework for optimising chemotherapy regimens.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Cross-Silo De-Anonymization Under Local Differential Privacy: Threat Model, Phase Transition, and Coordination Necessity

arXiv:2606.16763v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When a person's records appear in k independent data silos, each protected by (epsilon, delta)-differential privacy, standard composition yields a valid (k*epsilon, k*delta)-DP guarantee for the joint output. This worst-case bound, however, does not answer the concrete inference question: at what k can an adversary actually identify a target person? This paper develops the information-theoretic framework needed to answer that question. We introduce cross-silo person-level DP (XSP-DP), a Pufferfish-style privacy notion whose adjacency relation captures all records of a single person across all silos simultaneously, and verify that the standard basic composition bound carries over to this adjacency model. Within this framework we prove that de-anonymization undergoes a phase transition at k* = Theta(log n / epsilon^2) (population size n, per-silo RR parameter epsilon): a Fano lower bound shows any estimator fails for k > k*. An explicit XOR + randomized-response construction demonstrates information synergy: each silo's output is individually uninformative about the target, yet the joint mutual information is strictly positive. For non-coordinated binary randomized-response mechanisms, we prove that de-anonymization is inevitable once k exceeds the threshold, establishing that cross-silo coordination is necessary. These results provide a baseline threat model and Theta-level threshold for cross-silo inference attacks under local DP.

13.
Science (Express) 2026-05-21

DNA polymerization activates RNA cleavage of a reverse transcriptase–like antiviral enzyme | Science

作者: 未知作者

Defense-associated reverse transcriptases (DRTs) transcribe noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) for antiviral defense, but the mechanisms of ncRNA-independent DRTs remain unclear. In this work, we show that a single DRT4 mediates RNA-targeting antiphage defense by integrating DNA polymerase, exonuclease, and RNA endonuclease activities. First, through an equilibrium between its DNA polymerase and exonuclease activities, DRT4 senses phage infection, as elevated dNTP levels shift the equilibrium toward polymerase activity, thereby promoting protein-primed single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) synthesis. Second, ssDNA of sufficient length, phage DNA-binding proteins, and deoxyguanosine triphosphate collectively activate an unusual RNA endonuclease activity of DRT4, excising 3′–guanosine monophosphate from both phage and host RNA to terminate infection. These findings reveal a distinctive immune strategy combining nucleic acid synthesis and degradation, expanding the functional landscape of DRTs for new DNA- and RNA-processing technologies.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A Stabilized Path-Space Approach to Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling

arXiv:2606.12710v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models provide expressive data-driven priors for Bayesian inverse problems, but many diffusion posterior samplers rely on heuristic guidance approximations that can fail for nonlinear operators and multimodal posteriors. In this work, we develop a stabilized path-space framework for diffusion-based posterior sampling. Starting from a base diffusion process whose terminal marginal represents the prior, we define a likelihood-weighted target measure on trajectories and cast posterior sampling as learning a controlled stochastic process whose path measure matches this target. This formulation connects diffusion posterior sampling to stochastic optimal control while preserving the Bayesian structure needed for uncertainty quantification. We introduce a time reparameterization that makes the path-space control problem well posed by removing the bias induced by the unknown initial value function, without auxiliary training. We then learn the control via a trust-region path-space optimization method with log-variance objectives. The path-space perspective also unifies our learned control approach with existing guidance-based samplers, quantifies the sampling error induced by approximate controls, and yields importance sampling corrections for asymptotically exact posterior expectations. We evaluate the proposed framework on a suite of benchmark inverse problems with analytically characterized or high-quality reference posteriors, enabling principled assessment of sampling accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These experiments provide insight into the behavior of diffusion-based posterior samplers and demonstrate improved accuracy and robustness over leading approaches.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Evaluating Intersectional Fairness across Clinical Machine Learning Use Cases using Fairlogue and the All of Us Research Program

arXiv:2604.16450v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Intersectional biases in healthcare data can produce compound disparities in clinical machine learning models, yet most fairness evaluations assess demographic attributes independently. FairLogue, a toolkit for intersectional fairness auditing, was applied across multiple clinical prediction tasks to evaluate disparities across combined demographic groups. Using the All of Us dataset, two published models were selected for replication and evaluation: (A) prediction of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor associated bleeding events and (B) two-year stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation. Observational fairness metrics were computed across race, gender, and intersectional subgroups, followed by counterfactual analysis to evaluate whether disparities were attributable to group membership. Intersectional evaluation revealed larger disparities than single-axis analyses; however, counterfactual diagnostics indicated that most observed disparities were comparable to those expected under randomized group membership. These results highlight the importance of intersectional fairness auditing and demonstrate how FairLogue provides deeper insight into bias in clinical machine learning systems.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Latent-Conditioned Parameterized Quantum Circuits as Universal Approximators for Distributions over Quantum States

arXiv:2605.28690v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Many applications in quantum simulation, quantum chemistry, and quantum machine learning require not a single quantum state but an ensemble of states characterizing the heterogeneity of a target system. Preparing such ensembles state-by-state is prohibitive in both variational and fault-tolerant settings, thereby motivating a generative modeling approach. We introduce latent-conditioned parameterized quantum circuits (LPQCs), a hybrid quantum-classical framework in which classical neural networks map a latent variable sampled from a prior distribution to the parameters of a parameterized quantum circuit. We prove that LPQCs are universal approximators for probability measures over density operators in the 1-Wasserstein distance, extending classical universal approximation theorems to the quantum-distribution setting. We additionally introduce a multimodal latent prior and a mixture-of-experts circuit architecture, and show empirically that the latent-conditioned parameterization alleviates the barren plateau problem during optimization, a behavior for which we provide rigorous partial guarantees. Numerical experiments validate the framework on a synthetic multi-cluster ensemble of mixed quantum states and on a QM9-derived ensemble of 3-D molecular structures. In these tasks, LPQC outperforms recent quantum generative baselines and matches the generation quality of a classical neural-network baseline, while requiring an output dimension that grows only linearly with the number of qubits rather than exponentially. By leveraging classical expressivity in the latent space, LPQCs offer a tractable route to quantum generative modeling.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Characterizing Software Aging in GPU-Based LLM Serving Systems

arXiv:2606.11916v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper proposes an empirical methodology to study software aging in GPU-based LLM serving systems. Traditional aging studies focus on CPU-centric software with relatively regular workloads; LLM serving is different, spanning a Python host and a CUDA device, handling requests whose cost varies by orders of magnitude, and relying on rapidly evolving software stacks. We run a 216-hour campaign across six co-located deployments under identical stress conditions, monitor host, device, and client metrics in parallel, and apply a statistical pipeline that accounts for autocorrelation and multiple testing. Our results reveal statistically significant memory aging in all deployments, with leak rates strongly dependent on the serving runtime and deployment configuration. Beyond these findings, we provide a reproducible framework that opens a research direction at the intersection of the software aging and rejuvenation and LLM serving communities.

19.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

The Tone of Awareness: Topic, Sentiment, and Toxicity Maps During Mental Health Month on TikTok

Despite raising concerns about the mental health effects associated with the usage of TikTok, little is known about how related content is framed by creators and received by audiences. We collect the content of 28,341 TikTok videos and 80,130 comments from Mental Health Awareness Month (May) in 2023 and 2024 via the TikTok Research API, and study how the tone of awareness varies across topics and years. We characterize "tone" as the emotional and interpersonal framing of mental health discourse, operationalized through sentiment and toxicity measures. We extract topics from video text using BERTopic and log-odds keywords, then quantify topic-conditioned sentiment (XLM-T) and toxicity (Detoxify) separately for video transcriptions and comments. Sentiment captures the affective valence of content, while toxicity reflects the presence of harmful or abusive language. We find a stable set of recurring themes across years, spanning clinical conditions, emotional disclosure, self-care, and campaign-oriented content, with engagement highly skewed toward a small subset of topics. All sentiment and toxicity analyses are computed separately for video content and comments, allowing us to distinguish between content production and audience reception. Sentiment in videos is often negative for emotionally charged topics, while comments tend to shift toward more mixed or positive polarity, especially for suicide prevention. Toxicity is low in median overall, but exhibits longer-tailed outliers in comments than in videos that are more pronounced in comments and concentrated in specific topics (e.g., "Duet", "Suicide Prevention", and "Psychisch"). Overall, our results provide a topic-level decomposition of mental health discourse on TikTok during awareness-month campaigns.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

A Multi-Level Architecture for Reusable Materials Ontologies – The OntoCrafter Ceramics Ontology (OCO) as Reference Implementation

arXiv:2606.14814v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The Materials Science and Engineering ontology landscape is fragmented along multiple axes simultaneously. Horizontally: a recent survey identified 94 ontologies of which over 40 are structurally incompatible; each new application domain – ceramics, polymers, batteries, smart materials – typically restarts ontology design from scratch. Vertically: EU regulation (CSRD, CSDDD, PPWR, CBAM, R2R, AI Act, ESPR) forces material, manufacturing, supply-chain, and lifecycle data into integrated digital product passports, leaving ontologies that only address horizontal fragmentation incomplete for any contemporary consumer. And mechanistically: a vocabulary that records that BNT-BT has $d_{33} \approx 580$ pC/N stores a fact but cannot surface why – Bi-6s$^2$ lone-pair stereo-activity, anomalous Born effective charges, soft modes, defect chemistry – without a systematic explanation skeleton. We propose a multi-level modular architecture with two independent classification axes – level of abstraction (L0 bridges, L1 material-agnostic laboratory-notebook, L2 material-class-specific, L3 categorical reasoning) and consumer audience (material vs. compliance) – in which the material-specific level is internally organised by a seven-tier mechanistic-explanation skeleton (Symmetry, Energy/DFT, Thermo/CALPHAD, Kinetics, Microstructure, Defect chemistry, Bonding) applicable to any crystalline ionic oxide. The level-and-audience modularity dissolves the horizontal fragmentation, the compliance audience absorbs the vertical regulation pressure, and the seven-tier organisation of Level 2 delivers the mechanistic explanation depth. We instantiate the architecture as the OntoCrafter Ceramics Ontology (OCO v0.94): 5,196 classes across 44 modules; 167,348 OWL axioms (40,454 logical); 1,674 properties; 829 cross-ontology bridge mappings; 1,172 SHACL shapes; 163 published competency questions.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum speedup from nonclassical polarization

arXiv:2603.23124v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We develop a framework for identifying nonclassical speedups in systems with polarization, likewise spin degrees of freedom. By confining the dynamics to the manifold of angular momentum coherent states, which act as the classical reference in this case, we compute the speed limit that bounds the rate of change of the state achievable without generating quantum coherence. A comparison with the unrestricted quantum speed limit enables the quantitative identification of speedups arising from polarization nonclassicality. We apply this framework to the cross-Kerr interaction, demonstrating a persistent speedup scaling as $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{N})$ with the photon number $N$ with a parity effect in favour of even photon numbers. The results establish polarization nonclassicality as a genuine dynamical resource, linking quantum coherence to quantum-enhanced evolution speeds in nonlinear photonic systems.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

On Defining Erasure Harms for NLP

The deployment of NLP systems has raised concerns about harms they might produce, including representational harms. Recent literature has begun to conceptualize and measure one such harm, the harm of erasure. Nevertheless, the field lacks a clear and cohesive conceptual foundation for identifying and measuring erasure. Existing conceptualizations of erasure are often broad – making it difficult to identify what is needed to establish and measure erasure – or else specific to particular settings – facilitating measurement for those settings but potentially challenging to adapt to other settings. To address this gap, we develop and propose a structured definition of erasure that clarifies what components are necessary for establishing whether erasure has occurred, which practitioners need to explicitly articulate and operationalize in order to measure erasure.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Atlas: Orchestrating Heterogeneous Models and Tools for Multi-Domain Complex Reasoning

The integration of large language models (LLMs) with external tools has significantly expanded the capabilities of AI agents. However, as the diversity of both LLMs and tools increases, selecting the optimal model-tool combination becomes a high-dimensional optimization challenge. Existing approaches often rely on a single model or fixed tool-calling logic, failing to exploit the performance variations across heterogeneous model-tool pairs. In this paper, we present ATLAS (Adaptive Tool-LLM Alignment and Synergistic Invocation), a dual-path framework for dynamic tool usage in cross-domain complex reasoning. ATLAS operates via a dual-path approach: (1) training-free cluster-based routing that exploits empirical priors for domain-specific alignment, and (2) RL-based multi-step routing that explores autonomous trajectories for out-of-distribution generalization. Extensive experiments across 15 benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms closed-source models like GPT-4o, surpassing existing routing methods on both in-distribution (+10.1%) and out-of-distribution (+13.1%) tasks. Furthermore, our framework shows significant gains in visual reasoning by orchestrating specialized multi-modal tools.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Evaluating deep learning models for fault diagnosis of a rotating machinery with epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty

arXiv:2412.18980v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty-aware deep learning (DL) models recently gained attention in fault diagnosis as a way to promote the reliable detection of faults when out-of-distribution (OOD) data arise from unseen faults (epistemic uncertainty) or the presence of noise (aleatoric uncertainty). In this paper, we present the first comprehensive comparative study of state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware DL architectures for fault diagnosis in rotating machinery, where different scenarios affected by epistemic uncertainty and different types of aleatoric uncertainty are investigated. The selected architectures include sampling by dropout, Bayesian neural networks, and deep ensembles. Moreover, to distinguish between in-distribution and OOD data in the different scenarios two uncertainty thresholds, one of which is introduced in this paper, are alternatively applied. Our empirical findings offer guidance to practitioners and researchers who have to deploy real-world uncertainty-aware fault diagnosis systems. In particular, they reveal that, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty, all DL models are capable of effectively detecting, on average, a substantial portion of OOD data across all the scenarios. However, deep ensemble models show superior performance, independently of the uncertainty threshold used for discrimination. In the presence of aleatoric uncertainty, the noise level plays an important role. Specifically, low noise levels hinder the models' ability to effectively detect OOD data. Even in this case, however, deep ensemble models exhibit a milder degradation in performance, dominating the others. These achievements, combined with their shorter inference time, make deep ensemble architectures the preferred choice.