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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Near-Optimal Learning of Local Lindbladians

arXiv:2606.20535v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the problem of learning local Lindbladians from black-box access to the physical evolution, and the goal is to estimate all Hamiltonian and dissipative coefficients. We give an algorithm built directly from finite-time channel probes, which runs the unknown evolution for short times, estimates the corresponding Pauli transfer matrices from classical shadows, and converts these estimates into Lindbladian coefficients by stable local Fourier inversions. For fixed locality and bounded dissipative site degree, the uses of the dynamical evolution and total evolution time scale as $\widetilde{O}(\Lambda^2/\varepsilon^2)$ and $\widetilde{O}(\Lambda/\varepsilon^2)$ respectively, in the local dynamical strength bound $\Lambda$ and target accuracy $\varepsilon$, with only logarithmic dependence on the number of qubits. The algorithm is non-adaptive, uses no ancillas, and uses only random product states as inputs followed by random Pauli measurements. The method does not require knowing the support of the Lindbladian in advance. We complement the algorithm with matching lower bounds, showing that the learning algorithm is near-optimal both in physical dynamics accesses and in total evolution time. We construct a single-qubit dephasing Lindbladian family that already requires $\Omega(\Lambda^2/\varepsilon^2)$ channel uses and $\Omega(\Lambda/\varepsilon^2)$ total evolution time, even for adaptive algorithms with arbitrary ancillas and measurements. In particular, the lower bounds imply that the Heisenberg-limited scaling achievable for Hamiltonian learning is information-theoretically impossible once dissipative coefficients must be estimated.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Real-order moments, tail representations, and logarithmic means

arXiv:2606.14019v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper develops a unified framework for the study of real-order moments of arbitrary random variables. General integral representations are established in terms of cumulative distribution functions and survival functions, covering continuous, discrete, and mixed distributions supported on the whole real line. These formulas extend the classical tail-integral identities for nonnegative random variables and provide a common treatment of positive, fractional, and negative moments. For discrete distributions, explicit series representations are derived in terms of cumulative probabilities, yielding simple criteria for the existence of moments. Applications are presented for the zeta and Skellam distributions, illustrating how tail behavior determines moment finiteness and how moments can be represented geometrically through cumulative distribution functions. In addition, a representation for logarithmic moments is obtained, linking logarithmic means, Laplace transforms, and the classical Frullani identity. The results provide a unified perspective on moment representations and establish useful connections between tail probabilities, distribution functions, Laplace transforms, and moment existence.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Moonlight in Latent Space: Chirality and Structural Correspondence Between Beethoven's Op. 27 No. 2 and Machine Learning Mechanisms

arXiv:2606.14612v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that the three movements of Beethoven's "Moonlight Sonata" (Op. 27 No. 2) instantiate three distinct machine learning architectures – not by analogy, but by structural correspondence. Through computational analysis of the score (entropy, Jensen-Shannon divergence, dissonance, hand distributional overlap, self-similarity matrices, temporal memory decay, and contextual pitch embeddings), we establish four counterintuitive findings: (1) perceived musical "temperature" is governed by throughput, not distributional width; (2) the lightest movement carries the highest dissonance; (3) the movements implement streaming, recurrent, and periodic positional encoding memory architectures; and (4) the same pitch class acquires different contextual identities across movements, analogous to contextual vs.static embeddings in NLP – and unsupervised clustering recovers the tonal structure without music-theoretic input. We construct a reverse sonification (decoding analytical features back into MIDI) and quantify the chirality of the encode-decode cycle: what distributions preserve and sequential ordering destroys. Prompted by a listener's observation that the decoded piece sounds like "mirror isomers that can't be superimposed," the chirality measurement reveals reconstruction loss increasing monotonically with n-gram order. Bootstrap baselines and subsample checks confirm all movements carry sequential information above noise, though raw values are confounded by sample size. Cross-domain comparison shows natural language has higher chirality than music, reflecting stronger sequential constraints.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Non-Medical COVID-19 Impacts and Hearing Status: A Global Study of Differential Health Impact Among Deaf, Hard of Hearing, and Hearing Populations

Background: Deaf and hard of hearing (HoH) experienced complex challenges during the COVID19 pandemic, including obscured visual communication from mask mandates, inaccessible public health messaging, and inadequate interpreter availability. We examined whether hearing status predicted nonmedical COVID19 impact on a global level. Methods: We conducted a nested cross-sectional analysis within a global study collecting data across two waves (April to May 2020 and July to August 2022) from 184 countries. Participants (N=7,998) were categorized as Deaf (n=304), Hard of Hearing (HoH; n=951), or Hearing (n=6,743). The primary outcome was a composite COVID-related non-medical Personal Impact TScore derived from 14 items across employment, resource access, and healthcare domains. Multinomial logistic regression models progressively adjusted for demographic, structural, and psychosocial variables. Results: Deaf participants reported substantially higher rates of pandemic-related job loss (28.9% vs. 9.6% hearing), healthcare cancellations (39.9% vs. 24.6%), and inability to obtain basic supplies. Over half (55.9%) of Deaf participants scored above the median composite impact index, compared to 39.2% of hearing participants. In the fully adjusted model, Deaf status remained an independent predictor of high non-medical impact (aOR=1.6, 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.4). HoH status showed no statistically significant difference from hearing participants in any model. Conclusions: People identifying as Deaf experienced significant disparities during COVID19 when compared with HoH or hearing people, driven by language access barriers and institutional exclusion rather than hearing loss per se. These experiences underscore the importance for systemic interventions centering on accessible communication, Deaf-centered needs, and reducing audism in Deaf-hearing interaction.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Global Geometry Is Not Enough for Vision Representations

A common assumption in representation learning is that globally well-distributed embeddings support robust and generalizable representations. This focus has shaped both training objectives and evaluation protocols, implicitly treating global geometry as a proxy for representational competence. While global geometry effectively encodes which elements are present, it is often insensitive to how they are composed. We investigate this limitation by testing the ability of geometric metrics to predict compositional binding across a diverse suite of vision encoders. We find that standard geometry-based statistics exhibit near-zero correlation with compositional binding. In contrast, functional sensitivity, as measured by the input–output Jacobian, reliably tracks this capability. We further provide an analytic account showing that this disparity arises from objective design, as existing losses explicitly constrain embedding geometry but leave the local input–output mapping unconstrained. These results suggest that global embedding geometry captures only a partial view of representational competence and establish functional sensitivity as a critical complementary axis for modeling composite structure.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Surprise-Guided MergeSort: Budget-Efficient Human-in-the-Loop Ranking via Adaptive Comparison Scheduling

arXiv:2606.15623v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pairwise comparison is the gold standard for subjective ranking tasks; however, exhaustive annotation requires a massive number of human comparisons ($O(n^2)$). While sorting-based methods have reduced this burden to $O(n\log n)$, they still require expensive human judgment for every single comparison. To further improve annotation efficiency, we propose leveraging a Vision-Language Model (VLM) not as an annotator replacement, but as a question prioritizer to identify which comparisons genuinely require human judgment. The proposed Surprise-Guided MergeSort (SGS) framework achieves this through three integrated components: (1) a bottom-up MergeSort scheduler that structures comparisons and exploits transitivity, (2) a composite Surprise Scorer – combining position-bias-cancelled VLM confidence, Elo gap, and vote entropy – to quantify comparison ambiguity, and (3) an adaptive budget allocator that routes high-surprise pairs to humans while automating low-surprise pairs via transitivity inference. Validation was conducted on six diverse benchmarks spanning text similarity (STS-B, BIOSSES, SICKR-STS) and image quality assessment (KonIQ-10k, TID2013, LIVE Challenge). SGS effectively identified and skipped up to 535 non-informative comparisons per session. Consequently, it achieved Kendall's $\tau{\times}100$ improvements of $+6$ to $+12$ over Active Elo under the same total budget. These results demonstrate that combining VLM-guided surprise metrics with algorithmic sorting provides a generally consistent accuracy-efficiency trade-off across diverse domains.

07.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

A Drug-Specific, Half-Life-Adjusted Framework for Classifying CNS-Active Systemic Therapy Exposure During and After Radiotherapy

Clinical oncology datasets often store systemic therapy as a regimen label with a start date and an end date. Those records are clinically recognizable but can be analytically incomplete when the research question concerns whether a patient was exposed to a concurrent CNS-active drug (cCNS-aD) or an adjuvant CNS-active drug (aCNS-aD) around radiotherapy. Contemporary CNS-oncology studies usually define CNS activity by empiric drug lists and define concurrency by fixed calendar windows, although the literature shows substantial heterogeneity across both concepts. This paper proposes a generalizable framework for converting raw systemic therapy records into reproducible cCNS-aD and aCNS-aD variables, useful in subgrouping for clinical studies. The framework uses a transparent CNS scoring model based on three clinical evidence components: intracranial objective response rate, consensus CNS endorsement, and intrathecal route of administration. It then defines a pharmacokinetic exposure proxy as the recorded end date plus five half-lives. Concurrent exposure is classified by overlap with the radiotherapy interval, while post-radiotherapy exposure is classified by overlap with a prespecified post-RT attribution window. The framework separately identifies post-RT pharmacokinetic persistence and post-RT treatment initiation, allowing investigators to distinguish continued exposure from true adjuvant initiation. This is a methodological framework and reference implementation. Implementation audits and endpoint-specific sensitivity analyses remain necessary before use as a definitive exposure classifier

08.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimal Probe State for Phase Estimation Under Covariant Measurement

arXiv:2606.18169v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the optimization of input states for phase estimation under covariant measurements. Building on Holevo's framework, which provides the optimal covariant measurement for a fixed input state, we further optimize over the input state itself. For a general even $2\pi$-periodic cost function with non-negative Fourier coefficients, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal input state: Its Fock coefficients are determined, up to arbitrary phases, by the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of a Toeplitz matrix defined by the cost function. This characterization yields an explicit expression for the attainable lower bound of the average cost under optimal covariant measurements and shows that this bound asymptotically approaches zero in the infinite-energy limit. For the specific cost function $W(\theta,\tilde{\theta})=4\sin^2[(\theta-\tilde{\theta})/2]$, we obtain the optimal input state and the corresponding minimum average cost in closed form, demonstrating Heisenberg scaling with respect to the mean photon number.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

RepSelect: Robust LLM Unlearning via Representation Selectivity

Making large language models (LLMs) deeply forget specific knowledge and values without sacrificing general capabilities remains a central challenge in unlearning. However, current methods are easily reversed by fine-tuning or few-shot prompting, suggesting their forgetting is only shallow. We identify the root cause. Existing methods target representations shared with both the retain set and the subspace recovered by a fine-tuning attacker, making unlearning both disruptive to general capabilities and easy to reverse. We propose RepSelect (Representation Selectivity), isolates forget-set-specific representations by collapsing top principal components of weight gradients before each update, leaving general capabilities intact while limiting what fine-tuning can recover. We evaluate across two forget categories, biohazardous knowledge and abusive tendencies, and four model families spanning dense and Mixture-of-Experts architectures (Llama 3, Qwen 3.5, Gemma 4 E4B, DeepSeek V2 Lite). Compared to five popular baselines (GradDiff, NPO, SimNPO, RMU, UNDIAL), RepSelect achieves a 4-50x larger reduction in post-relearning answer accuracy than the strongest baseline, and is near-perfectly robust to few-shot prompting attacks. Targeting selective representations is thus an important step towards deep and robust LLM forgetting.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Does Head Pose Correction Improve Biometric Facial Recognition?

Biometric facial recognition models often demonstrate significant decreases in accuracy when processing real-world images, often characterized by poor quality, non-frontal subject poses, and subject occlusions. We investigate whether targeted, AI-driven, head-pose correction and image restoration can improve recognition accuracy. Using a model-agnostic, large-scale, forensic-evaluation pipeline, we assess the impact of three restoration approaches: 3D reconstruction (NextFace), 2D frontalization (CFR-GAN), and feature enhancement (CodeFormer). We find that naive application of these techniques substantially degrades facial recognition accuracy. However, we also find that selective application of CFR-GAN combined with CodeFormer yields meaningful improvements.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Tyler: Typed Latent Reasoning for Language Models – When to Think, What to Compute, and How Much to Allocate

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting improves reasoning in large language models (LLMs) by externalizing intermediate computation as discrete text tokens, but this textual interface also introduces redundancy and inference overhead. Latent reasoning offers a promising alternative by carrying part of the computation in continuous representations. However, existing methods typically predefine when latent computation is invoked and how it is allocated during decoding, leaving a key problem unresolved: when to invoke latent computation, what type of computation to perform, and how much budget to allocate. We propose Typed Latent Reasoning (Tyler), a typed and budget-aware framework for latent reasoning during autoregressive decoding. Tyler learns a policy that, at each decoding step, chooses between emitting a text token and switching to a latent computation module specialized for a particular reasoning function. Once invoked, an operator maps the current reasoning state into latent tokens that support global planning, local state updates, or reusable procedural abstraction. Across extensive experiments on three backbone LLMs, Tyler improves accuracy by up to 14.49 points over CoT and by up to 4.30 points over the strongest competing baseline. It further generalizes across diverse reasoning domains and achieves the best final-stage performance with the lowest forgetting.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2604.06464v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds. However, BQ-CP fundamentally requires the i.i.d. assumption. Meanwhile, weighted conformal prediction handles distribution shift via importance weights but remains frequentist, producing only point-estimate thresholds. We propose Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction (WBCP), which generalizes BQ-CP to arbitrary importance-weighted settings by replacing the uniform Dirichlet $\Dir(1,\ldots,1)$ with a weighted Dirichlet $\Dir(\neff \cdot \tilde{w}_1, \ldots, \neff \cdot \tilde{w}_n)$, where $\neff$ is Kish's effective sample size. We prove four theoretical results: (1)~$\neff$ is the unique concentration parameter matching frequentist and Bayesian variances; (2)~posterior standard deviation decays as $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$; (3)~BQ-CP's stochastic dominance guarantee extends to per-weight-profile data-conditional guarantees; (4)~the HPD threshold provides $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$ improvement in conditional coverage. We instantiate WBCP for spatial prediction as Geographical BQ-CP, where kernel-based spatial weights yield per-location posteriors with interpretable diagnostics. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatial datasets demonstrate that WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing substantially richer uncertainty information.

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Population-scale detection of methylation outliers from long-read genome sequencing

Background: Aberrant DNA methylation can mediate the functional effects of rare genetic variation and contribute to imprinting disorders, repeat expansion diseases, and other pathogenic regulatory mechanisms. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable genome-wide detection of CpG methylation alongside genetic variation from a single assay. However, methods for systematic identification and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data remain limited. Methods: We developed METAFORA, a computational workflow for detecting methylation outlier regions from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing data. METAFORA constructs population-level methylation references, segments the genome into correlated CpG blocks, infers technical and biological sources of variation through hidden factor estimation, models uncertainty due to variable depth sequencing, and computes covariate-adjusted methylation outlier scores for individual samples. We applied METAFORA across large long-read sequencing cohorts and integrated methylation outliers with multi-omic data. METAFORA is implemented as a snakemake workflow available at https://github.com/tjense25/METAFORA. Results: METAFORA identified methylation outlier regions associated with rare structural variants, tandem repeat expansions, and imprinting abnormalities. We found outlier regions were enriched for molecular outliers across transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility datasets, supporting their functional relevance in gene regulation. In a representative case, METAFORA identified an imprinting defect affecting the GNAS locus associated with an STX16 deletion. Conclusions: METAFORA enables scalable detection and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data and provides a framework for integrating epigenetic outliers with genomic and multi-omic analyses. These approaches may improve interpretation of rare regulatory variation and support discovery of clinically relevant epigenetic abnormalities in genomic medicine.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

StylisticBias: A Few Human Visual Cues Drive Most Social Biases in MLLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in personally and societally consequential settings, yet the visual cues that shape how these models judge people remain poorly understood. Prior work often compares different (groups of) individuals, making it difficult to separate appearance effects from identity differences. We introduce StylisticBias, a controlled benchmark for evaluating attribute-level social bias in MLLMs. We generate 500 photorealistic base faces and create about 50 single-attribute variations per face, producing about 25K images. This design keeps identity fixed and changes one visual attribute at a time. It lets us measure how specific cues shift model judgments. We evaluate six MLLMs across 25 binary social judgment scenarios. We find that age and body type dominate identity-level effects, while fashion style and other visual cues drive the largest attribute-level shifts. We further find that about 15 attributes account for nearly 80\% of the total variation, showing that bias is concentrated in a small set of visual cues. Sensitivity is strongest in judgments that are semantically aligned with appearance, especially socioeconomic and style-related judgments. We release StylisticBias as a benchmark for fine-grained bias evaluation in multimodal models. Code and dataset: https://github.com/timo-cavelius/StylisticBias and https://hf.co/datasets/shaghayegh/stylistic-bias-dataset.

15.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

C-glycoside synthesis via radical cross-coupling of glycohydrazides

作者:

Carbohydrates are among the most abundant and structurally diverse biomolecules in nature, playing central roles in energy storage, molecular recognition, and cell signaling. Within this domain, C-glycosides1-3, in which the oxygen atom of the glycosidic bond in O-glycosides is replaced by carbon, have emerged as valuable motifs in medicinal chemistry due to their resistance to enzymatic hydrolysis2,4. Of particular importance are C-aryl glycosides, exemplified by the SGLT2 inhibitors dapagliflozin, canagliflozin, and empagliflozin, which are frontline therapies for type 2 diabetes5-7. However, scalable syntheses of C-aryl glycosides have traditionally relied on protected sugar derivatives, lengthy sequences, or conventional cross-couplings that often suffer from poor selectivity, limited scope, and extensive protecting-group manipulation6. Herein, we report a practical approach to C-aryl glycosides using glycosyl sulfonyl hydrazides as redox-neutral radical precursors for cross-coupling. Prepared directly from unprotected native sugars, these reagents generate glycosyl radicals under mild conditions and enable efficient access to diverse C-aryl glycosides, including all approved SGLT2 inhibitors, natural products such as salmochelins and neopetrosins, and medicinally relevant probes. Beyond anomeric functionalization, this platform enables C–C bond formation at multiple positions on carbohydrate scaffolds and supports stereoretentive radical coupling that can override inherent stereochemical biases, expanding practical access to carbohydrate-derived therapeutics and chemical tools.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Neural FOXP2 – Language Specific Neuron Steering for Targeted Language Improvement in LLMs

LLMs are multilingual by training, yet their lingua franca is often English, reflecting English language dominance in pretraining. Other languages remain in parametric memory but are systematically suppressed. We argue that language defaultness is governed by a sparse, low-rank control circuit, language neurons, that can be mechanistically isolated and safely steered. We introduce Neural FOXP2, that makes a chosen language (Hindi or Spanish) primary in a model by steering language-specific neurons. Neural FOXP2 proceeds in three stages: (i) Localize: We train per-layer SAEs so each activation decomposes into a small set of active feature components. For every feature, we quantify English vs. Hindi/Spanish selectivity overall logit-mass lift toward the target-language token set. Tracing the top-ranked features back to their strongest contributing units yields a compact language-neuron set. (ii) Steering directions: We localize controllable language-shift geometry via a spectral low-rank analysis. For each layer, we build English to target activation-difference matrices and perform layerwise SVD to extract the dominant singular directions governing language change. The eigengap and effective-rank spectra identify a compact steering subspace and an empirically chosen intervention window (where these directions are strongest and most stable). (iii) Steer: We apply a signed, sparse activation shift targeted to the language neurons. Concretely, within low to mid layers we add a positive steering along the target-language dominant directions and a compensating negative shift toward the null space for the English neurons, yielding controllable target-language defaultness.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Noise-Guided Transport for Imitation Learning

arXiv:2509.26294v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider imitation learning in the low-data regime, where only a limited number of expert demonstrations are available. In this setting, methods that rely on large-scale pretraining or high-capacity architectures can be difficult to apply, and efficiency with respect to demonstration data becomes critical. We introduce Noise-Guided Transport (NGT), a lightweight off-policy method that casts imitation as an optimal transport problem solved via adversarial training. NGT requires no pretraining or specialized architectures, incorporates uncertainty estimation by design, and is easy to implement and tune. Despite its simplicity, NGT achieves strong performance on challenging continuous control tasks, including high-dimensional Humanoid tasks, under ultra-low data regimes with as few as 20 transitions.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

S$^2$COPE: Self-Supervised Concept Discovery via Preference Learning

Current representation learning paradigms force a fundamental compromise: self-supervised methods scale to massive datasets but yield opaque features, whereas interpretable models remain bottlenecked by the need for dense human annotation. We introduce Self-Supervised Concept discOvery via Preference lEarning (\model), a label-free framework that resolves this dilemma. Instead of treating Vision-Large-Language Models (VLLMs) as static feature extractors, \model leverages them as active participants in a self-supervised preference optimization loop. By autonomously hypothesizing, validating, and reinforcing candidate visual attributes directly from raw imagery, our framework discovers novel, structured concepts without a single label. Extensive experiments across natural, medical, and physics domains demonstrate that \model successfully extracts domain-specific concepts where standard VLLMs often fail to generate. By amortizing concept discovery directly into the VLLM backbone through our self-supervised preference objective – rather than relying on static generation and disjoint filtering – we achieve up to a 24-point absolute improvement in downstream top-1 classification accuracy on unseen data. Our work suggest that interpretability can emerge through a model's autonomous interaction with incidental visual structures, without any human supervision.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Behavioural Forecasting for Mobile Health

arXiv:2606.14604v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Wearable devices and smartphones generate rich behavioural time series that can support proactive health interventions, yet systematic comparisons of modern forecasting architectures for these data are lacking. In particular, it remains unclear how models generalise across populations, how different architectures respond to participant-level fine-tuning and how forecasting accuracy degrades across multi-day horizons. We benchmark six deep learning architectures, two zero-shot Foundation Models (FM) and statistical baselines on three public datasets encompassing over 800 participants, reporting per-feature metrics for step counts, screen time and sleep duration across 1-8 day horizons. We further conduct a per-feature personalisation study across all six architectures and assess FM transferability across dataset sizes and temporal granularities. Our key findings are: (i) no single architecture dominates, PatchTST leads among trained models while the three runners-up (TCN, MLP, Transformer) show no meaningful performance difference; (ii) the FM TimesFM matches or exceeds trained models zero-shot, especially in low-data regimes and (iii) participant-level fine-tuning reduces per-feature RMSE by 16-60\%, with sleep benefiting most and step counts least. These results provide practical guidance on architecture selection, FM applicability and personalisation strategies for mobile health forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to jointly evaluate modern deep learning, FMs and personalisation for multi-horizon behavioural forecasting from wearables.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation

arXiv:2606.13285v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

S1-DeepResearch: Beyond Search, Toward Real-World Long-Horizon Research Agents

Deep research agents aim to solve complex knowledge-intensive tasks through long-horizon planning, evidence gathering, reasoning, and report generation. While recent progress in search agents has demonstrated strong capabilities in information retrieval and answer verification, most existing training datasets remain search-centric, focusing primarily on closed-ended question answering and information localization. As a result, they mainly train information-seeking behavior while providing limited coverage of key deep research capabilities, including evidence integration, knowledge synthesis, planning, file understanding, and structured report generation. In this work, we propose a unified trajectory construction paradigm for deep research agents that combines closed-ended QA and open-ended exploration. The proposed framework consists of graph-grounded task formulation, agentic trajectory rollout, and multi-dimensional trajectory verification, enabling scalable synthesis of high-quality agentic trajectories spanning long-chain complex reasoning, deep research instruction following, report writing, file understanding and generation, and skills usage. Compared with existing search-oriented datasets, our synthesized trajectories place greater emphasis on knowledge synthesis, complex reasoning, and planning. S1-DeepResearch-32B achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source models of comparable scale across 20 benchmarks spanning five capability dimensions, including complex reasoning, instruction following, report generation, file understanding, and skills usage. On several challenging deep research benchmarks, it approaches the performance of leading proprietary frontier models. These results highlight the importance of jointly modeling information acquisition, knowledge synthesis, and planning-oriented agent behaviors for building effective deep research agents.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Age as a moderator of a brief alcohol intervention among injury patients in Northern Tanzania

Background: Alcohol use is a leading modifiable risk factor for injury in sub-Saharan Africa. In Tanzania, young people ([≤]24 years) experience greater alcohol-related harm despite drinking less frequently than adults. Punguza Pombe kwa Afya Yako (PPKAY) is a culturally adapted, brief intervention for injury patients in Tanzania. This study examined whether age moderates its effectiveness. Methods: We conducted an exploratory secondary analysis of baseline and 3-month data from the PPKAY randomized trial among injury patients aged [≥]18 years at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Tanzania. Eligible participants reporting alcohol use before injury, AUDIT [≥]8, or positive breathalyzer were randomized to usual care or PPKAY with SMS boosters. The primary outcome was binge drinking days. Count outcomes were analyzed using negative binomial regression with robust SEs and continuous outcomes using mixed-effects models. Effect modification was assessed using a three-way interaction (Time x intervention x Age). Results: Among 543 participants (mean age 36.8 years; 16.2% aged 18–24), age moderated the intervention effect for drinking days (IRR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.07 – 0.98; p = 0.046) and drinks consumed (IRR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.04 – 0.77; p = 0.021). The intervention reduced 4 drinking days (95% CI -7.1 to -0.8) and 27.5 drinks (95% CI -42.8 to -12.2) among young people, while adults showed reductions in both arms, without intervention-specific effect. Conclusion: The effects of ED-based brief alcohol interventions are not uniform, varying across both age groups and alcohol-related outcomes. We found a greater responsiveness in drinking frequency and quantity reported among young people.

23.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-15

SMS: Symmetric Mediation Statistics for Powerful High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis

Background: Mediation analysis of high-dimensional features, particularly molecular-level omics features, provides important opportunities to uncover biological mechanisms underlying human health and disease. However, two central statistical challenges remain: testing the composite-null hypothesis and maintaining power when the exposure-mediator and mediator-outcome associations differ substantially in statistical significance. Existing methods typically rely on accurate estimation of the proportions of the three null types or on the maximum of the two association p-values, and may not always control the FDR well and may have limited power under imbalanced significance. Methods: We propose SMS, a new statistical framework based on symmetric mediation statistics. By exploiting symmetry, SMS calibrates the composite null distribution as a whole for FDR control. It also allows flexible combinations of the two association p-values, including the maximum, and then enables construction of an omnibus test. Moreover, it permits direct use of effect-size estimates, bypassing the need to compute p-values. Results: SMS controlled the FDR across a wide range of simulation scenarios while achieving a substantial sensitivity gain, often around 20 percentage points, over existing methods including HDMT, DACT, and DEI-B. Applications to a metabolomics dataset and a DNA methylation dataset further corroborated these findings. Notably, SMS discovered five plausible mediators in the metabolomics dataset that were missed by all existing methods considered.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Statistical Foundations of LLM-based A/B Testing: A Surrogacy Framework for Human Causal Inference

arXiv:2606.17165v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Organizations and researchers show increasing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in place of human participants in A/B tests, in the hope of experimenting faster and at lower cost. We study when a treatment effect estimated on LLM outcomes recovers the effect that would have been measured on the human population of interest. Distributional equivalence between LLM and human outcomes would make any standard estimator valid but is unrealistic. We therefore develop a statistical framework that adapts surrogate endpoint theory to LLMs. The framework shows that calibrating LLM outcomes to human outcomes identifies the average treatment effect under surrogacy and comparability conditions that are jointly weaker than distributional equivalence. When these conditions fail, the effect of interest is only partially identified, and we provide diagnostics that can falsify surrogacy on historical experiments together with a bound on the worst-case bias from limited overlap. We further show that the stochasticity inherent to LLMs introduces both bias and variance, but using an average of multiple draws as the surrogate mitigates both. We illustrate the methods and theory in simulations and an application to A/B tests on Upworthy headlines. A central takeaway from our work is that the validity of LLM outcomes as surrogates can only be falsified for past treatments and never verified for new ones, so human experiments remain indispensable for novel interventions. We discuss the role of LLM choice, prompting, and temperature as design variables, and how to size human experiments for validation.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

DeepInflation: an AI agent for research and model discovery of inflation

arXiv:2601.14288v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present DeepInflation, an AI agent designed for research and model discovery in inflationary cosmology. Built upon a multi-agent architecture, DeepInflation integrates Large Language Models (LLMs) with a symbolic regression (SR) engine and a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) knowledge base. This framework enables the agent to automatically explore and verify the vast landscape of inflationary potentials while grounding its outputs in established theoretical literature. We demonstrate that DeepInflation can successfully discover simple and viable single-field slow-roll inflationary potentials consistent with the latest observations (with the ACT DR6 results taken as an example) or any given $n_s$ and $r$, and provide accurate theoretical context for obscure inflationary scenarios. DeepInflation serves as a prototype for a new generation of autonomous scientific discovery engines in cosmology, which enables researchers and non-experts alike to explore the inflationary landscape using natural language. This agent is available at https://github.com/pengzy-cosmo/DeepInflation.