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01.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

On the spatio-temporal increments of nonlinear parabolic SPDEs and the open KPZ equation

arXiv:2508.05032v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study spatio-temporal increments of the solutions to nonlinear parabolic SPDEs on a bounded interval with Dirichlet, Neumann, or Robin boundary conditions. We identify the exact local and uniform spatio-temporal moduli of continuity for the sample functions of the solutions. These moduli of continuity results imply the existence of random points in space-time at which spatio-temporal oscillations are exceptionally large. We also establish small-ball probability estimates and Chung-type laws of the iterated logarithm for spatio-temporal increments. Our method yields extension of some of these results to the open KPZ equation on the unit interval with inhomogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Our key ingredients include new strong local non-determinism results for linear stochastic heat equation under various types of boundary conditions, and detailed estimates for the errors in linearization of spatio-temporal increments of the solution to the nonlinear equation.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Learning Topology-Aware Implicit Field for Unified Pulmonary Tree Modeling with Incomplete Topological Supervision

Pulmonary trees extracted from CT images frequently exhibit topological incompleteness, such as missing or disconnected branches, which substantially degrades downstream anatomical analysis and limits the applicability of existing pulmonary tree modeling pipelines. Current approaches typically rely on dense volumetric processing, explicit graph reasoning, or generic point cloud completion priors, leading to limited efficiency, weak structural awareness, and reduced robustness under realistic structural corruption. We propose TopoField, a topology-aware implicit modeling framework that treats topology repair as a first-class modeling problem and enables unified multi-task inference for pulmonary tree analysis. TopoField represents pulmonary anatomy using sparse surface and skeleton point clouds and learns a continuous implicit field that supports topology repair without relying on complete or explicit disconnection annotations, by training on synthetically introduced structural disruptions over already incomplete trees. Building upon the repaired implicit representation, anatomical labeling and lung segment reconstruction are jointly inferred through task-specific implicit functions within a single forward pass. Extensive experiments on the Lung3D+ dataset demonstrate that TopoField consistently improves topological completeness and achieves accurate anatomical labeling and lung segment reconstruction under challenging incomplete scenarios. We further validate TopoField on real incomplete outputs from an external segmentation model, demonstrating its applicability to realistic segmentation pipelines. Owing to its implicit formulation, TopoField attains high computational efficiency, completing all tasks in just over one second per case, highlighting its practicality for large-scale and time-sensitive clinical applications.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

arXiv:2606.12843v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Agentic Environment Engineering for Large Language Models: A Survey of Environment Modeling, Synthesis, Evaluation, and Application

Environments serve as interactive systems for large language model (LLM) based agents across diverse scenarios and play a crucial role in driving the continual evolution of model capabilities. Despite this importance, existing work lacks a systematic categorization and deep analysis. This paper systematically studies current researches on agentic environments from the perspective of the environment engineering lifecycle, covering their modeling, synthesis, evaluation and application. Specifically, the paper first introduces representative environments from the perspectives of eight attributes and eight domains, providing detailed analyses of their development paths and highlighting their core capabilities. Second, for automated environment synthesis, two paradigms are introduced, such as symbolic synthesis and neural synthesis. This paper also shows different environment evaluation methods in each paradigm. Thirdly, the corresponding environment applications from the perspective of agent-environment co-evolution are discussed. In specific, the paper characterizes the primary pathways for agent evolution in dynamic environments from four complementary perspectives: memory-centric experience evolution, orchestration-centric workflow evolution, trajectory-centric offline evolution, and exploration-centric online evolution. And three paradigms of environment evolution are identified, namely neural-driven, difficulty-driven, and scaling-driven approaches. At last, several promising future directions are discussed, including Environment-as-a-Service, Multi-agent Environments, and Neural-Symbolic Environments.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Scalable anomaly detection via a univariate Christoffel function

arXiv:2606.12483v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Anomaly detection plays a critical role in identifying unusual patterns across domains such as fraud detection, network intrusion, and system fault diagnosis. Recently, Christoffel function-based methods, rooted in polynomial optimization, have emerged as promising alternatives to deep learning due to their strong mathematical foundations and computational frugality. However, their practical applicability is hindered by the need to invert a matrix whose size grows exponentially with the data dimension, rendering the method intractable even for moderate-dimensional datasets. This paper addresses the dimensionality limitations of Christoffel function-based anomaly detection while preserving its key theoretical properties, i.e., the on-off support dichotomy behavior and the accurate support shape capture. We introduce UCF, a univariate Christoffel function which is based on the squared distance between the query point and the support points. Extensive experiments on the ADBench benchmark demonstrate that UCF consistently outperforms 14 state-of-the-art baselines in terms of Average Precision. By resolving the scalability bottleneck of the Christoffel Function, this work expands the toolkit of anomaly detection methods with a robust, theoretically grounded, and universally applicable approach.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Can Neural Networks Achieve Optimal Computational-statistical Tradeoff? An Analysis on Single-Index Model

arXiv:2606.15219v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this work, we tackle the following question: Can neural networks trained with gradient-based methods achieve the optimal computational-statistical tradeoff in learning Gaussian single-index models? Prior research has shown that any polynomial-time algorithm under the statistical query (SQ) framework requires $\Omega(d^{s^\star/2}\lor d)$ samples, where $s^\star$ is the generative exponent representing the intrinsic difficulty of learning the underlying model. However, it remains unknown whether neural networks can achieve this sample complexity. Inspired by prior techniques such as label transformation and landscape smoothing for learning single-index models, we propose a unified gradient-based algorithm for training a two-layer neural network in polynomial time. Our method is adaptable to a variety of loss and activation functions, covering a broad class of existing approaches. We show that our algorithm learns a feature representation that strongly aligns with the unknown signal $\theta^\star$, with sample complexity $\widetilde{O} (d^{s^\star/2} \lor d)$, matching the SQ lower bound up to a polylogarithmic factor for all generative exponents $s^\star\geq 1$. Furthermore, we extend our approach to the setting where $\theta^\star$ is $k$-sparse for $k = o(\sqrt{d})$ by introducing a novel weight perturbation technique that leverages the sparsity structure. We derive a corresponding SQ lower bound of order $\widetilde{\Omega}(k^{s^\star})$, matched by our method up to a polylogarithmic factor. Our framework, especially the weight perturbation technique, is of independent interest, and suggests potential gradient-based solutions to other problems such as sparse tensor PCA.

07.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Limiting partition function for the Mallows model: a conjecture and partial evidence

作者:

arXiv:2406.18855v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Let $S_n$ denote the set of permutations of $n$ labels. We consider a class of Gibbs probability models on $S_n$ that is a subfamily of the so-called Mallows model of random permutations. The Gibbs energy is given by a class of right invariant divergences on $S_n$ that includes common choices such as the Spearman foot rule and the Spearman rank correlation. Mukherjee in 2016 computed the limit of the (scaled) log partition function (i.e. normalizing factor) of such models as $n\rightarrow \infty$. Our objective is to compute the exact limit, as $n\rightarrow \infty$, without the log. We conjecture that this limit is given by the Fredholm determinant of an integral operator related to the so-called Schrödinger bridge probability distributions from optimal transport theory. We provide partial evidence for this conjecture, although the argument lacks a final error bound that is needed for it to become a complete proof.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Physical Atari: A Robust and Accessible Platform for Real-time Reinforcement Learning on Robots

arXiv:2606.19357v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We built a robot called the Robotroller that actuates an Atari CX40+ controller and a device called the Atari Devbox that renders the game frame and the reward signal from the Arcade Learning Environment on a screen. The Robotroller and the Atari Devbox, together with an off-the-shelf camera and a desktop computer, constitute a system that can be used to study reinforcement learning algorithms in the physical world. We call the full system Physical Atari. In this paper, we detail the key decisions that make Physical Atari a robust and accessible platform. To make the system robust, we designed the Robotroller so that all movement is done through bearings, which reduces wear. Additionally, we wrote software that monitors the state of the servos at a high frequency and intervenes to limit stress. To make the system accessible, we used affordable off-the-shelf components and parts that can be manufactured using consumer 3D printers. Physical Atari can be built for under $1,000 and has been used for weeks of non-stop reinforcement learning experiments without any mechanical failures. We used it to validate that reinforcement learning algorithms can learn directly on robots and show that even small distribution shifts between learning and deployment can significantly degrade the performance of policies. Our results underscore the importance of on-device adaptation for strong performance on robots.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Beyond Layer Importance in Layer-wise Sparsity: An Inter-Layer Perturbation-Absorption Perspective

The considerable layer-wise redundancy in large language models (LLMs) has established non-uniform sparsity allocation across layers as the standard pruning approach for efficient compression. Existing layer-wise allocation methods that estimate allocation strategy from local signals such as activation outliers or weight spectra mainly derive from local layer importance, whereas the final post-pruning performance is also influenced by the network's subsequent compensatory capacity. In this paper, we directly characterize this property through controlled perturbation experiments. We make the following empirical findings. First, layers exhibit highly heterogeneous responses to pruning-scale perturbations. In most cases, early layers amplify perturbations, while middle and late layers actively absorb them, with relative L2 drift decreasing monotonically across depth and direction realigning toward the unperturbed hidden-state trajectory. Second, absorption is a large-perturbation phenomenon. Under small perturbations the network exhibits amplification across all layers, and the transition to absorption occurs smoothly as perturbation magnitude grows to pruning scale. This enriches the linearized accumulation theory underlying related works. Building on these findings, we define an absorption coefficient per layer and propose absorption-aware correction, an orthogonal augmentation that improves OWL and AlphaPruning by reducing perplexity by 7.13% and boosting zero-shot accuracy by 1.02% across multiple model families at 70% sparsity.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Track2View: 4D-Consistent Camera-Controlled Video Generation via Paired 3D Point Tracks

Re-rendering an existing video from a novel camera viewpoint requires the output to follow the prescribed camera trajectory while preserving the appearance and dynamics of the original scene across every frame. Existing methods rely on per-frame pose embeddings, noisy point-cloud renderings, or implicit learned correspondences, none of which provides an explicit, temporally continuous link between source and target pixels. We propose Track2View, which conditions a video diffusion transformer on paired 3D point tracks: sparse trajectories of scene points projected into both the source and target camera views. These tracks provide explicit spatiotemporal correspondences that are temporally continuous by construction, encoding what content should appear where and when. At the core of Track2View is a dual-view track conditioner that transfers visual context from source to target view through parameter-free geometric operations and learned temporal aggregation, ensuring generalization to arbitrary camera trajectories without memorizing specific motions. We further introduce a data curation pipeline that extracts one-to-one track correspondences by running a 3D point tracker on temporally concatenated multi-camera view pairs. On a 400-video benchmark spanning static and dynamic scenes, Track2View achieves state-of-the-art results across visual quality, view synchronization, and camera accuracy, reducing rotation error by 30-65% and translation error by 61-72% relative to leading baselines. Project page is available at this https URL: https://qjizhi.github.io/track2view

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Grounding Computer Use Agents on Human Demonstrations

arXiv:2511.07332v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Building reliable computer-use agents requires grounding: accurately connecting natural language instructions to the correct on-screen elements. While large datasets exist for web and mobile interactions, high-quality resources for desktop environments are limited. To address this gap, we introduce GroundCUA, a large-scale desktop grounding dataset built from expert human demonstrations. It covers 87 applications across 12 categories and includes 56K screenshots, with every on-screen element carefully annotated for a total of over 3.56M human-verified annotations. From these demonstrations, we generate diverse instructions that capture a wide range of real-world tasks, providing high-quality data for model training. Using GroundCUA, we develop the GroundNext family of models that map instructions to their target UI elements. At both 3B and 7B scales, GroundNext achieves state-of-the-art results across five benchmarks using supervised fine-tuning, while requiring less than one-tenth the training data of prior work. Reinforcement learning post-training further improves performance, and when evaluated in an agentic setting on the OSWorld benchmark using o3 as planner, GroundNext attains comparable or superior results to models trained with substantially more data,. These results demonstrate the critical role of high-quality, expert-driven datasets in advancing general-purpose computer-use agents.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

SproutRAG: Attention-Guided Tree Search with Progressive Embeddings for Long-Document RAG

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems must balance retrieval granularity with contextual coherence, a challenge that existing methods address through LLM-guided chunking, single-level context expansion, or hierarchical summarization. These approaches variously depend on costly LLM calls during indexing or retrieval, limit context aggregation to a single granularity level, or introduce information loss through summarization. We present SproutRAG, an attention-guided hierarchical RAG framework that addresses this trade-off by organizing sentence-level chunks into progressively larger but semantically coherent units, using learned inter-sentence attention to construct a binary chunking tree. Unlike prior approaches that rely on external LLMs, fixed context expansion, or lossy summarization, SproutRAG learns which attention heads and layers best capture semantic document structure, enabling multi-granularity retrieval without additional LLM calls or compressed summaries. At retrieval time, SproutRAG uses hierarchical beam search to retrieve candidates at multiple granularities, capturing multi-sentence relevance beyond flat retrieval. The framework is trained end-to-end with a joint objective that improves both embeddings and tree structure. Experiments across four benchmarks spanning scientific, legal, and open-domain settings demonstrate that SproutRAG improves information efficiency (IE) by 6.1% on average over the strongest baseline. Code is available on https://github.com/AmirAbaskohi/SproutRAG.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Diffusion approximations for interacting stochastic systems with reflection and control

arXiv:2601.05895v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study diffusion approximations for a class of interacting stochastic systems with reflection and control. Motivated by interacting stochastic dynamics subject to feedback mechanisms and boundary constraints, we consider diffusion-scaled stochastic processes incorporating stochastic fluctuations, state-dependent interactions, and reflection. Under suitable assumptions, we establish convergence in distribution of the scaled processes to systems of interacting reflected stochastic differential equations of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. The limiting dynamics capture key features of constrained multi-agent systems, including mean-reverting behavior, interaction effects, and confinement within bounded domains through Skorokhod reflection. The analysis combines diffusion-scaling arguments, stability estimates, and continuity properties of the Skorokhod map to connect discrete stochastic systems with their reflected diffusion limits. To illustrate the framework, we present numerical examples motivated by crowd dynamics and neural population dynamics. The simulations demonstrate qualitative agreement between the finite stochastic systems and the corresponding reflected diffusion models and illustrate how diffusion approximations can provide tractable descriptions of interacting stochastic systems with constraints.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Multi-Agent Transactive Memory

The decentralized deployment of LLM agents with diverse capabilities across diverse tasks motivates infrastructure for knowledge sharing across heterogeneous agent populations. Just as search engines index human-generated artifacts to support human problem solving, retrieval systems can organize agent-generated artifacts for reuse across agent populations. We extend retrieval-augmented generation - which demonstrates the value of human-authored artifacts to individual agents - to retrieval of agent-generated artifacts supporting a population of agents. In particular, agent trajectories encode reusable procedural knowledge, yet these artifacts are typically discarded after a single use or retained only by the producing agent, forcing newly instantiated agents to repeatedly rediscover existing solutions. We propose Multi-Agent Transactive Memory (MATM), a framework for population-level storage and retrieval of agent-generated trajectories, where producer agents contribute trajectories to a shared repository and consumer agents retrieve them to improve task execution. We focus on interactive environments (ALFWorld and WebArena), where trajectories are long and encode especially rich procedural structure. Our experiments demonstrate that retrieving trajectories from MATM improves downstream task performance and reduces interaction steps without coordination or joint training. These results position MATM as a design pattern for population-level experience sharing in open agent ecosystems.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Speculative Rollback Correction for Quality-Diverse Web Agent Imitation

arXiv:2606.12485v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Training interactive web agents through imitation learning from expert trajectories has emerged as a highly effective approach. However, determining the optimal timing for expert intervention presents a critical challenge in this context. Delayed intervention often leads to the accumulation of early-stage errors, pushing the page state into an irrecoverable regime. Conversely, premature or excessive intervention causes the agent to become overly reliant on expert policies, trapping the model in local optima characterized by a single, rigid trajectory. We propose Speculative Rollback Correction (SRC), a branch-level imitation framework for resettable agent environments. Instead of requesting teacher labels at every visited state or correcting only after a completed trajectory, SRC uses fixed-horizon branch review: the student executes a short speculative segment before teacher review, and the teacher localizes the first harmful deviation only when local progress breaks. Rollback preserves useful prefixes, while successful rollouts are filtered by a hard verifier and retained in a lightweight quality-diversity archive. The resulting data supports next-action supervised fine-tuning on both localized corrections and verifier-passing trajectories. On WebArena-Infinity, SRC collects 977 verifier-passing trajectories and 9,183 next-action examples; fixed-horizon review improves the recovery-versus-query tradeoff over step-level review while retaining verifier-passing solution variants. Code is available at https://github.com/LongkunHao/SRC_gui_agent.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Variational Learning for Insertion-based Generation

arXiv:2606.02133v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Non-monotonic sequence generation methods, such as masked diffusion models, provide a flexible alternative to left-to-right autoregressive modeling by allowing tokens to be generated in non-fixed and prescribed orders. Despite their practical advantages, most existing non-monotonic models are order-agnostic and rely on a fixed-length grid, limiting their ability to support variable-length generation and adaptive insertion order. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic framework for learning insertion order in variable-length insertion models. We formalize a bijective correspondence between insertion trajectories and permutations, which enables an exact reparameterization of the data likelihood as a sum over permutations. Building on this result, we propose the Insertion Process (IP), a stochastic generative model that jointly learns where to insert, what to insert, and when to terminate, trained via permutation-based variational inference. Unlike prior fixed-canvas approaches, IP natively supports variable-length generation and learns data-driven preferences over insertion orders. Experiments on goal-conditioned planning and molecular string generation demonstrate that learning insertion order improves both modeling quality and generalization in domains without a canonical left-to-right structure.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

MUFFLe: Efficient Model Update Compression via Generalized Deduplication for Federated Learning

arXiv:2606.14354v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Federated learning is well suited to edge environments but is often limited by the uplink cost of transmitting model updates. This Work-in-Progress paper presents MUFFLe, a communication-efficient update compression scheme that integrates generalized deduplication (GD) into the FedAvg pipeline. MUFFLe deduplicates repeated patterns across the update vector, yielding a fixed-rate, variable-count compression scheme. Preliminary experiments on IID MNIST with 20 clients show that MUFFLe reaches the target accuracy of $92.93\%$ with 38~MB cumulative uplink communication, compared with 75~MB for 8-bit quantization, 86~MB for Top-$k$ sparsification, and 310~MB for uncompressed FedAvg. These results demonstrate the feasibility of applying GD to communication-efficient federated learning.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

WaveDINO: Learning-Based Atmospheric Correction of Unwrapped InSAR Interferograms Validated by GNSS: Results at Laguna del Maule and Campi Flegrei Volcanoes

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) enables effective monitoring of volcanic deformation; however, the observed signals are often corrupted by atmospheric phase delays, seasonal surface changes, and decorrelation effects. Existing atmospheric correction methods, such as numerical weather model-based methods, can reduce these effects but do not consistently remove atmospheric artefacts and may introduce residual biases. To address these limitations, we propose a novel learning-based method for denoising unwrapped InSAR interferograms, using a hybrid training strategy that combines physically motivated synthetic deformation with real atmospheric noise. Specifically, we introduce WaveDINO, a wavelet-based multi-scale denoising framework conditioned on frozen DINOv3 foundation-model features and terrain information. Training uses synthetic magma-source deformation superimposed on short-term interferograms to expose the network to realistic atmospheric statistics while retaining known ground truth. Performance is evaluated on both controlled synthetic data and long-term real interferograms from Laguna del Maule (Chile) and Campi Flegrei (Italy), with independent GNSS measurements used for validation. WaveDINO consistently outperforms competing models, improving agreement with GNSS measurements, and reducing mean GNSS misfit by approximately 3% and 19% at two sites, respectively, while surpassing weather-model-based corrections.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Multi-Granular Node Pruning for Causal Circuit Discovery

arXiv:2512.10903v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Circuit discovery aims to identify minimal subnetworks that are responsible for specific behaviors in large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches primarily rely on iterative edge pruning, which is computationally expensive and limited to coarse-grained units such as attention heads or MLP blocks, overlooking finer structures like individual neurons. We propose a node-level pruning framework for circuit discovery that addresses both scalability and granularity limitations. Our method introduces learnable masks across multiple levels of granularity, from entire blocks to individual neurons, within a unified optimization objective. Granularity-specific sparsity penalties guide the pruning process, allowing a comprehensive compression in a single fine-tuning run. Empirically, our approach identifies circuits that are smaller in nodes than those discovered by prior methods; moreover, we demonstrate that many neurons deemed important by coarse methods are actually irrelevant, while still maintaining task performance. Furthermore, our method has a significantly lower memory footprint, 5-10x, as it does not require keeping intermediate activations in the memory to work.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Non-negative Matrix Factorisation with Topological Regularisation

arXiv:2606.17531v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the learning of interpretable bases in non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) by regularising the topology of the learned basis functions. Our approach is motivated by the observation that many data modalities can be viewed as non-negative functions on a structured domain, where the quality of a basis is intrinsically linked to its topology. However, naive methods for incorporating the topology of the support are often hindered by discreteness and threshold dependence, rendering them unsuitable for continuous optimisation. We address these challenges by employing persistent homology as a stable, threshold-free topological quantifier and by designing topological scores that integrate into the NMF objective as regularisers. The resulting framework encompasses spatially coherent image components, periodic time-series structures, and clique-like graph signals within a unified modelling language.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Identifiable Markov Switching Models with Instantaneous Effects and Exponential Families

arXiv:2606.02231v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Learning Permutation Distributions via Reflected Diffusion on Ranks

arXiv:2603.17353v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The finite symmetric group S_n provides a natural domain for permutations, yet learning probability distributions on S_n is challenging due to its factorially growing size and discrete, non-Euclidean structure. Recent permutation diffusion methods define forward noising via shuffle-based random walks (e.g., riffle shuffles) and learn reverse transitions with Plackett-Luce (PL) variants, but the resulting trajectories can be abrupt and increasingly hard to denoise as n grows. We propose Soft-Rank Diffusion, a discrete diffusion framework that replaces shuffle-based corruption with a structured soft-rank forward process: we lift permutations to a continuous latent representation of order by relaxing discrete ranks into soft ranks, yielding smoother and more tractable trajectories. For the reverse process, we introduce contextualized generalized Plackett-Luce (cGPL) denoisers that generalize prior PL-style parameterizations and improve expressivity for sequential decision structures. Experiments on sorting and combinatorial optimization benchmarks show that Soft-Rank Diffusion consistently outperforms prior diffusion baselines, with particularly strong gains in long-sequence and intrinsically sequential settings.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Democracy in the Era of Artificial Intelligence

arXiv:2606.13026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Interfacing Artificial Intelligence (AI) with democracy is one of the most profound challenges of our times. On the one hand, AI comes with opportunities to overcome long-standing challenges in democracy, such as low participation in deliberative and voting processes with poor representation of people. On the other hand, new risks arise from AI algorithms that are privacy-intrusive, biased, manipulative, spread misinformation and influence election results. Moving beyond the over-simplistic question of whether AI is good or bad for democracy, the Handbook on Democracy in the Era of Artificial Intelligence asks instead: how to upgrade democracies and the principles they are built on, using AI? How to engage with AI and on what terms? Which new values and design principles are required to build democratic resilience? In 34 chapters by 59 authors across the world from different disciplines, we explore how AI can empower collective intelligence for democracy (Part 1) and what is the future of deliberative democracy using large language models and social media (Part 2). We also illustrate the role of AI for building resilient self-governance systems (Part 3) and the challenges of transforming democracy in the age of AI (Part 4). We conclude with broader perspectives (Part 5) that re-imagine the interplay of democracy and AI.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

HeRo-Q: A General Framework for Stable Low Bit Quantization via Hessian Conditioning

arXiv:2601.21626v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Post Training Quantization (PTQ), a mainstream model compression technique, often leads to the paradoxical 'low error, high loss' phenomenon because it focuses solely on minimizing quantization error. The root cause lies in the Hessian matrix of the LLM loss landscape: a few high curvature directions are extremely sensitive to perturbations. To address this, we propose the Hessian Robust Quantization (HeRo Q) algorithm, which applies a lightweight, learnable rotation-compression matrix to the weight space prior to quantization. This joint framework reshapes the loss landscape by reducing the largest Hessian eigenvalue and reducing its max eigenvalue, thereby significantly enhancing robustness to quantization noise. HeRo-Q requires no architectural modifications, incurs negligible computational overhead, and integrates seamlessly into existing PTQ pipelines. Experiments on Llama and Qwen models show that HeRo Q consistently outperforms state of the art methods including GPTQ, AWQ, and SpinQuant not only achieving superior performance under standard W4A8 settings, but also excelling in the highly challenging W3A16 ultra low bit regime, where it boosts GSM8K accuracy on Llama3 8B to 70.15\% and effectively avoids the logical collapse commonly seen in aggressive quantization.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Fusing Stylometric and Embedding Systems to Estimate Authorship Likelihood Ratios in Japanese

The likelihood ratio framework is widely recognized as the logically and legally sound basis for evidential analysis across forensic sciences, and its importance is increasingly acknowledged in analyses of authorship in textual evidence. To date, however, its application has been confined to English-language texts. Meanwhile, authorship attribution has traditionally relied on a diverse array of stylometric features, even as the rise of pre-trained large language models enables new contextual-embedding approaches. Combining these diverse approaches through fusion promises enhanced performance, yet it has not been applied to integrate stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems within the likelihood ratio paradigm. This study is the first to apply likelihood ratio-based forensic text comparison to Japanese digital texts, using ~1,000-character excerpts from blogs, to 1) evaluate system performance and likelihood ratio magnitudes and 2) assess the impact of fusing stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems. The results demonstrate that the fused system maintains excellent calibration while 1) increasing consistent-with-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes; 2) decreasing contrary-to-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes and 3) improving overall discriminability. The best-performing fusion achieved a log-likelihood-ratio cost of 0.32484, illustrating both the feasibility of likelihood ratio framework for Japanese and the benefits of fusion across heterogeneous systems.