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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Clarify Before You Draw: Proactive Agents for Robust Text-to-CAD Generation

arXiv:2602.03045v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models have recently enabled text-to-CAD systems that synthesize parametric CAD programs (e.g., CadQuery) from natural-language prompts. In practice, however, geometric descriptions can be under-specified or internally inconsistent: critical dimensions may be missing and constraints may conflict. However, existing fine-tuned models tend to reactively follow the user instructions and hallucinate dimensions when the text is ambiguous. To address this, we propose a proactive agentic framework for text-to-CadQuery generation, named as ProCAD, that resolves specification issues before code synthesis. Our framework pairs a proactive clarifying agent, which audits the prompt and asks targeted clarification questions only when necessary to produce a self-consistent specification, with a CAD coding agent that translates the specification into an executable CadQuery program. We fine-tune the coding agent based on a curated high-quality text-to-CadQuery dataset and train the clarifying agent via agentic SFT on clarification trajectories. Experiments show that proactive clarification significantly improves robustness to ambiguous prompts while keeping interaction overhead low. ProCAD outperforms frontier closed-source models, including Claude Sonnet 4.5, reducing the mean Chamfer distance by 79.9% and lowering the invalidity ratio from 4.8% to 0.9%. Our code and datasets are made publicly available on https://github.com/BoYuanVisionary/Pro-CAD.

02.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Emergent de Sitter Space and Non-Unitary Tensor Networks from Non-Hermitian Quantum Criticality

arXiv:2606.17983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Extending the holographic principle to de Sitter (dS) spacetimes remains one of the most vital open frontiers in quantum gravity, where a microscopic, bottom-up tensor-network framework that relates boundary quantum data to emergent de Sitter spacetime is still lacking. In this work, we first show the emergence of de Sitter spacetime from boundary entanglement by formulating a non-unitary continuous multi-scale entanglement renormalization ansatz (cMERA) for a concrete non-Hermitian critical fermion chain. Within this emergent spacetime, we analyze the associated geodesics and show that they act as extremal Ryu-Takayanagi (RT) surfaces undergoing a smooth timelike-to-null transition. Remarkably, we demonstrate that this continuum trajectory dictates a distinct tensor-network architecture in which the bond-counting contribution naturally truncates at the discrete timelike-to-null transition toward the deep infrared. In the resulting architecture, the null ray along the horizon is represented by zero-cost links, since the associated cut severs no tensor legs. This network structure successfully reproduces the logarithmic scaling of non-unitary critical entanglement entropy, offering a bond-counting picture for the de Sitter RT formula. Our results provide the long-sought dS/(c)MERA correspondence at the level of both emergent spacetime and discrete holographic entanglement.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

KGEdit: Ambiguity-Aware Knowledge Graphs for Training-Free Precise Video Generation and Editing

In recent years, training-free video generation has progressed remarkably. However, when handling complex textual instructions, existing methods still suffer from semantic ambiguity, incorrect concept binding, and cross-frame inconsistency. To address these issues, we propose KGEdit, a structured semantic control framework for text-to-video (T2V) diffusion models. Specifically, we first construct an ambiguity-aware knowledge graph (AAKG) to disentangle and disambiguate the input prompt, converting it into four types of structured semantics: identity, relation, attribute, and negative constraints. We then design a structured semantic injection module (SSIM) to inject these semantic signals into key layers of the diffusion Transformer, enabling fine-grained semantic control. In addition, we introduce a temporal-aware semantic control (TASC) module that dynamically schedules semantic objectives according to the stage-wise characteristics of the denoising process, further improving semantic alignment and temporal consistency. Experiments show that KGEdit outperforms existing methods in editing precision and temporal stability, while offering higher efficiency and controllability in text-driven interaction scenarios.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

ANSR-DT: A Neuro-Symbolic Framework for Adaptive and Explainable Digital Twins

arXiv:2501.08561v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Digital twins are increasingly used to monitor and optimize industrial systems, yet many existing frameworks remain difficult to interpret, slow to adapt, and limited in their ability to incorporate explicit domain knowledge. This paper presents ANSR-DT, an adaptive neuro-symbolic framework that unifies temporal anomaly detection, symbolic reasoning, and reinforcement-learning-based decision support within a single digital twin pipeline. ANSR-DT combines a CNN-LSTM model for multivariate pattern recognition with Prolog-based reasoning that converts learned signals into explicit rules, enabling transparent diagnoses and traceable decision paths. A PPO-based adaptation layer further refines operational responses under changing conditions while preserving interpretability. Experiments against 8 baselines show that ANSR-DT delivers competitive predictive performance together with stable rule extraction, scalable symbolic reasoning, and actionable explanations. Additional validation on the Skoltech Anomaly Benchmark (SKAB) further indicates that the framework transfers beyond synthetic settings. These findings position ANSR-DT as a practical foundation for trustworthy, adaptive, and explainable industrial digital twins.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Seeing Below the Limit of Detection: A Censored-Poisson Bayesian Latent-Growth Change-Point Detector (the Span Detector) for Serial ctDNA in HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer

arXiv:2606.11876v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Circulating-tumour DNA (ctDNA) carries evidence of drug resistance months before imaging shows it, but the earliest evidence lives below the assay's limit of detection (LoD): a nascent subclone is detected only intermittently, producing a flickering sequence of faint detects and non-detects. Commercial liquid biopsies treat each draw as an independent snapshot and a non-detect as nothing. We argue a non-detect is a left-censored observation, and the pattern of non-detects and faint detects over time carries actionable evidence of growth before any single value is trustworthy. We introduce Span, a censored-Poisson Bayesian latent-growth change-point detector that models the binary detection process, accumulates a sequential generalised-likelihood-ratio statistic for an upward change-point in the per-variant detection rate, and raises a competing-risks alarm with calibrated false-alarm control. Span has no learned weights, so there is nothing to overfit. On a synthetic cohort of HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer on first-line CDK4/6-inhibitor plus endocrine therapy, at a matched 10% false-alarm rate, Span roughly doubles the fraction of impending progressions caught three months ahead (indolent regime: 25% vs 11% for the snapshot), with a falsifiable dose-response: large for indolent emergence, vanishing for fast emergence. A value-trajectory baseline performs identically to the snapshot, isolating the gain to the censored detection model. The survival backbone matches a Cox baseline on real breast-cancer data (GBSG-2, n=686; C-index 0.67 vs 0.68), and on a real longitudinal cohort with clean biomarkers (PBC2, n=312) the same pipeline correctly declines to win, a falsifiable boundary test confirming the mechanism is regime-specific. All ctDNA trajectories are synthetic.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Tamed Feynman-Kac diffusion processes: Killing-branching intertwine

arXiv:2605.07824v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Relaxation to equilibrium of a drifted Brownian motion is quantified by a transition probability density function, whose main (multiplicative) entry is an inferred Feynman-Kac kernel of the Schr\"{o}dinger semigroup operator. Although seemingly devoid of a natural probabilistic significance (except for its explicit path integral definition), the pertinent kernel relaxes to equilibrium as well. The implicit Feynman-Kac potential ${\cal{V}}(x)$, continuous, confining and bounded from below, may take negative values. If positive, ${\cal{V}}(x)$ can be interpreted as the killing rate of the decaying diffusion process. In case of relaxing F-K kernels the killing effects are tamed (often overcompensated). The taming inavoidably appears in conjunction with the existence of the negativity subdomains of ${\cal{V}}(x)$ in $R$. If locally ${\cal{V}}(x) < 0$, its sign inversion $- {\cal{V}}(x)$ can be interpreted as the branching (cloning, alternatively bifurcation) rate in the course of the other wise free random motion. The arising killed diffusion processes with branching, we interpret as the possible path-wise background of tamed (relaxing) Feynman-Kac diffusions. We present acomputer-assisted path-wise arguments, towards a consistency of the killing/branching taming scenario, for a number of nonlinear model systems in one space dimension. Special attention is paid to Feynman-Kac potential shapes in the double well form, where an analytic access to eigenvalues and eigenfunctions is scarce. Throughout the paper the dynamics refers to the positive real time. Since the Newton-type equations of motion for admissible classical trajectories have a Euclidean form (due to the sign inverted force term), we give a brief resume of a couple of their explicit solutions, without recourse to the Euclidean time intuitions, and the instanton lore of related quantum model systems.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Double-Helix Vision (DH-V2): A Geometry-Based Visual Sampler for Bandwidth-Constrained Perception

作者:

We present Double-Helix Vision (DH), a geometry-based visual sampler that compresses 2D images into compact 1D signals using paired golden-ratio-inspired spiral trajectories. Rather than processing every pixel uniformly, DH employs two phase-shifted helices (Alpha and Beta, offset by 180 degrees) to sample the image with biologically-inspired foveation: high density at the center, sparse coverage at the periphery. At 4K resolution, DH achieves a 1,433x compression ratio (99.93% reduction) while preserving the geometric structure of the scene. The full perception pipeline – including spatial mapping, temporal collision detection, and intra-frame structural disparity estimation – runs in 0.52 ms at 1080p on CPU-only hardware, with no neural network dependencies. On CIFAR-10 at extreme sampling budgets (K=128 points per helix), DH achieves a +6.03% accuracy gain over uniform random sampling. A JSON-serializable Robotics API is provided, delivering sub-millisecond spatial perception reports in 2.7 KB packets. Code and benchmarks are available under the MIT License.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Consensus-based Agentic Large Language Model Framework for Harmonized Tariff Schedule Code Classification

arXiv:2606.16987v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code classification is essential for customs clearance, duty assessment, trade statistics, and regulatory compliance in maritime logistics. However, exact HTS classification remains challenging because product descriptions are often short, incomplete, or ambiguous, while correct classification depends on hierarchical tariff structures, legal notes, and jurisdiction-specific rules. This paper proposes an agentic large language model (LLM) framework for Canadian 10-digit HTS code classification in smart-port and maritime logistics environments. The framework integrates multi-agent information retrieval, semantic retrieval over official tariff documents, evidence-grounded reasoning, consensus-based validation, element-wise voting across hierarchical code components, confidence estimation, and human-in-the-loop escalation. We evaluate the framework on a private dataset of 3,300 domain-expert-labeled product records collected from logistics and delivery contexts. Experimental results show that exact 10-digit classification remains difficult even for advanced LLMs, with performance decreasing from coarse chapter-level prediction to fine-grained tariff and statistical suffix assignment. These findings demonstrate the need for evidence-grounded, uncertainty-aware, and human-centered classification workflows rather than fully autonomous single-step prediction. The proposed framework supports more interpretable, accountable, and compliance-oriented HTS classification for maritime logistics and smart-port operations. Our code is available at https://github.com/Analytics-Everywhere-Lab/hts.

09.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Hard to Halt: Automation Bias in Agent-Driven Sequencing Prior Authorization Workflows

Purpose: Prior authorization (PA) for exome or genome sequencing is a time-consuming process that impedes timely rare disease diagnosis. Large language model-based browser agents offer potential for automating these workflows, but their clinical reliability remain uncharacterized. Methods: We developed a sandbox compromising a simulated ES/GS PA submission payer portal and a synthetic EHR containing 836 patient records spanning compliant profiles and deficient profiles with different types of issues. Gemini 3 Pro, Gemini 3 Flash, and Claude Opus 4.5 were evaluated on task completion rate, form completion accuracy, and appropriate withholding for deficient profiles. Results: Larger models achieved much higher task completion rates (Gemini 3 Pro 95.45%, Claude Opus 4.5 93.67%) compared to Gemini 3 Flash (56.05%), but nearly universally failed to withhold submission for deficient profiles whereas Gemini 3 Flash ironically demonstrated superior withholding performance (17.33%). In a non-agentic setting, Gemini 3 Pro correctly identified 91% of the issues in deficient profiles, indicating that withholding failure is attributable to the browser interaction rather than the model's reasoning limitations. Conclusion: Current LLM-based browser agents exhibit a systematic bias towards form submission that poses risks in PA workflows. A modular, multi-agent architecture with human supervision is necessary for a safe clinical deployment.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Frequency-dependent cognitive effects of Deep Brain Stimulation in Parkinson's Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) improves levodopa-induced motor complications and cardinal motor symptoms of Parkinson's disease (PD), but stimulation frequency may differentially shape outcomes. This is evident for axial and gait symptoms, which may respond differently to lower-frequency stimulation. Whether frequency-dependent effects extend to cognition remains unclear. Objective: To investigate the cognitive effects of DBS at distinct frequencies in PD. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO - CRD42024618253). PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE were searched for studies assessing cognitive outcomes under different stimulation frequencies. Eight cognitive domains were defined: verbal fluency, cognitive flexibility, executive control, working memory, attention, processing speed, episodic memory, and time processing. Multilevel random-effects meta-analyses were performed, with effect sizes expressed as Hedges' g. Results: Forty-three studies met the inclusion criteria, the majority (n = 31) involving STN-DBS. Twenty-one STN-DBS studies, including 355 patients, were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with HFS ([&ge;] 130 Hz), lower frequencies (4-80 Hz) were associated with better verbal fluency (g = 0.27) and cognitive flexibility (g = 0.38), with consistent effects across sensitivity and leave-one-out analyses. Accuracy-based executive control measures also favored lower-frequency stimulation. OFF-stimulation comparisons showed a concordant pattern. Evidence for other targets (PPN and NBM) was limited. Conclusions: Lower-frequency STN-DBS was associated with modest benefits in specific cognitive domains compared with HFS. These findings highlight the need for future research to determine how frequency interacts with stimulation location and symptom-specific networks to shape cognitive and cognitive-motor outcomes in PD.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Shift-and-Sum Quantization for Visual Autoregressive Models

Post-training quantization (PTQ) enables efficient deployment of deep networks using a small set of data. Its application to visual autoregressive models (VAR), however, remains relatively unexplored. We identify two key challenges for applying PTQ to VAR: (i) large reconstruction errors in attention-value products, especially at coarse scales where high attention scores occur more frequently; and (ii) a discrepancy between the sampling frequencies of codebook entries and their predicted probabilities due to limited calibration data. To address these challenges, we propose a PTQ framework tailored for VAR. First, we introduce a shift-and-sum quantization method that reduces reconstruction errors by aggregating quantized results from symmetrically shifted duplicates of value tokens. Second, we present a resampling strategy for calibration data that aligns sampling frequencies of codebook entries with their predicted probabilities. Experiments on class-conditional image generation, inpainting, outpainting, and class-conditional editing show consistent improvements across VAR architectures, establishing a new state of the art in PTQ for VAR.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

What does measuring one qubit reveal about another? $K$-networks as a directed diagnostic for quantum circuits

arXiv:2606.16549v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many-qubit circuit states are hard to inspect directly, so they are often summarized by pairwise graph weights. Common pairwise weights report symmetric correlations, while many circuit questions are directed and basis-specific: if qubit $i$ is measured in a given basis, how strongly does the outcome reshape the conditional state of qubit $j$? We define $K_{i\to j}$, a directed, basis-conditioned edge weight for this question. It is large when the two measurement outcomes occur with comparable probability and leave qubit $j$ in clearly different conditional states; it is zero when the source outcome is deterministic or the target states are indistinguishable. The scalar uses standard binary-ensemble distinguishability; the paper's contribution is to turn this conditional comparison into a directed network layer for circuit states. The resulting networks are computable from two-qubit reduced density matrices. They are diagnostic (not entanglement measures): for pure two-qubit states $K$ reduces to the tangle $C^2$ (squared concurrence)[WoottersConcurrence,CKWTangle], while separable mixed states can reach $K=1$. Examples on teleportation, Grover, QAOA, and random circuit families show the intended use: $K$-networks map feed-forward, phase, and interaction-graph structure that symmetric or computational-basis summaries can leave weak or absent.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

A Judge-Aware Ranking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Models without Ground Truth

arXiv:2601.21817v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on open-ended tasks without ground-truth labels is increasingly done via the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm. A critical but under-modeled issue is that judge LLMs differ substantially in reliability; treating all judges equally can yield biased leaderboards and misleading uncertainty estimates. More data can make evaluation more confidently wrong under misspecified aggregation. We propose a judge-aware ranking framework that extends the Bradley-Terry-Luce model by introducing judge-specific discrimination parameters, jointly estimating latent model quality and judge reliability from pairwise comparisons without reference labels. We establish identifiability up to natural normalizations and prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator, enabling confidence intervals for score differences and rank comparisons. Across multiple public benchmarks and a newly collected dataset, our method improves agreement with human preferences, achieves higher data efficiency than unweighted baselines, and produces calibrated uncertainty quantification for LLM rankings.

14.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Reaching out-of-school girls with HPV vaccination: A qualitative evaluation in six low- and middle-income countries using the RE-AIM framework

Background Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV), the primary cause of cervical cancer, disproportionately affects women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While school-based vaccination of adolescent girls against HPV is highly effective, this strategy systematically excludes out-of-school (OOS) girls. Using the RE-AIM framework, we explored strategies to reach OOS girls with HPV vaccination across six African and Asian LMICs. Methods We conducted semi-structured key informant interviews with 32 vaccination program stakeholders from Cambodia, Cameroon, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Uganda between May and September 2024. Interviews explored countries implementation successes, challenges, and strategies to reach OOS girls with HPV vaccination and sustainability considerations. Data were analyzed using a hybrid team-based thematic analysis approach guided by the RE-AIM framework. Results Community outreach-based strategies, typically integrated into routine immunization outreach, were identified as the most effective approach to reach OOS girls with HPV vaccination. Targeted strategies, such as locating outreach clinics in community venues frequented by OOS girls (e.g., churches, markets) enhanced implementation. Perceived effectiveness of these strategies varied across participants, and formal assessment of effectiveness was constrained by the absence of disaggregated vaccination coverage data by school enrollment status. Some subpopulations of OOS girls (i.e., girls in nomadic or migrant communities, urban OOS girls) were not readily reached through standard outreach approaches, prompting implementation of adapted and tailored strategies for these subpopulations. Costs associated with conducting outreach in harder-to-reach areas were major barriers to reaching OOS girls, presenting challenges to the sustainability and cost-effectiveness of these approaches. Conclusions Routine community outreach platforms were widely perceived as most effective for reaching OOS girls. Strengthening disaggregated monitoring systems, adapting outreach for harder-to-reach subpopulations of OOS girls, and financing delivery models for tailored outreach strategies will be critical to improving equitable HPV vaccine coverage among OOS girls.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Reasoning Models Know What's Important, and Encode It in Their Activations

Language models often solve complex tasks by generating long reasoning chains, consisting of many steps with varying importance. While some steps are crucial for generating the final answer, others are removable. Determining which steps matter most, and why, remains an open question central to understanding how models process reasoning. We investigate if this question is best approached through model internals or through tokens of the reasoning chain itself. We find that model activations contain more information than tokens for identifying important reasoning steps. Crucially, by training probes on model activations to predict importance, we show that models encode an internal representation of step importance, even prior to the generation of subsequent steps. The internal representations of importance in different models yield high agreement on which steps are important. The representation is distributed across layers, and does not correlate with surface-level features, such as a step's relative position or its length. Our findings suggest that analyzing activations can reveal aspects of reasoning that surface-level approaches fundamentally miss, indicating that reasoning analyses should look into model internals.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Pragmatic Inference for Moral Reasoning Acquisition: Generalization via Metapragmatic Links

While moral reasoning has emerged as a promising research direction for large language models (LLMs), achieving robust generalization remains a critical challenge. This challenge arises from the gap between what is said and what is morally implied. In this paper, we build on metapragmatic links and Moral Foundations Theory to close this gap. Specifically, we develop a pragmatic inference approach that enables LLMs, given a moral situation, to acquire the metapragmatic links between moral reasoning objectives and the social variables that influence them. We adapt this approach to three different moral reasoning tasks to demonstrate its adaptability and generalizability. Experimental results show that our approach significantly enhances LLMs' generalization in moral reasoning, paving the way for future research to leverage pragmatic inference across a wide range of moral reasoning tasks.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Visored: A Controlled-Natural-Language Prover for LLM-Generated Mathematics

arXiv:2606.17581v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present a dependent-type-based prover designed around the way LLMs (and humans) tend to write mathematics, complementing existing systems such as Lean and Rocq. Its core design choices are a surface that imitates mathematical natural language and a rule-driven automation layer that closes the routine steps a textbook would omit, so that an accepted proof can be re-emitted as a checked Lean file. Early experiments suggest that, even without any prover-specific training data, LLMs can learn to use it effectively on the miniF2F benchmark. Lean output excerpts: https://github.com/xiyuzhai-husky-lang/visored/

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

One Polluted Page Is Enough: Evaluating Web Content Pollution in Generative Recommenders

Search-augmented LLMs increasingly mediate everyday consumer recommendations by retrieving live web content. This creates a new risk: generative recommenders may consume polluted web content, such as fake reviews and promotional pages crafted to mislead recommendations. We ask: to what extent do search-augmented LLMs become unwitting promoters of fake products when consuming polluted retrieval results? To answer this, we introduce FORGE (Fake Online Recommendations in Generative Environments), a benchmark for measuring fake-product promotion under controlled web-content pollution. Given an upstream search result, FORGE locally rewrites real products in retrieved web pages into fake ones to simulate web-content pollution, and measures how often the LLM recommends the fake product. FORGE covers 225 real-world products across 15 categories and 5 consumer scenarios. Across 12 commercial and open-weights LLMs, all models are vulnerable: a single polluted page yields fooled rates of up to 27%, while the full top-3 replacement raises this to 73.8%. Vulnerability varies substantially across categories, increasing when models lack stable prior knowledge of the relevant products. Reasoning does not mitigate this vulnerability; instead, it often generates spurious social proof to justify false recommendations. We evaluate three defenses: skepticism prompting and consensus filtering (over model priors or cross-document evidence). Skepticism can exacerbate vulnerability, much like reasoning, while filtering risks suppressing legitimate products. We release FORGE at https://github.com/leoluolol/forge-benchmark.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Modelling the decadal expansion of West Nile virus in Italy: the role of climatic, anthropogenic, and macroecological drivers

Abstract BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV) is a growing health burden in Italy. Anticipating human infection risk is hampered by the pathogen's complex ecology, highlighting the need for comprehensive early-warning tools. AIM We aimed to model municipal-level WNV risk in Italy and characterize its decadal expansion in Italy, providing a comprehensive ecological understanding of viral emergence. METHODS We applied a machine learning framework to annual human WNV case data from 2014 to 2024. The model integrated a suite of environmental, socio-economic, and macroecological predictors to generate risk projections. We evaluated the model's performance through multiple validation settings. We also performed an anticipation test for the 2025 epidemic season, using 2024 environmental data to assess the model's predictive accuracy against observed 2025 human cases. RESULTS Our model achieved robust performance (True Skill Statistic > 0.4) and captured WNV progressive expansion from 184 predicted positive municipalities in 2014 to 2,012 in 2024 (an 11-fold increase in 11 years). Seasonal minimum temperature was the primary risk driver, followed by monitoring year and population density, indicating active spatial spread. Environmental suitability consistently preceded clinical detection. Municipalities with cases in 2023-2024 exhibited significantly higher predicted suitability during 2018-2022 than those without cases (average risk 0.58 vs 0.20). Our model successfully identified emerging risk hotspots along the Adriatic coast and southern Italy before the official human spillover of 2025. CONCLUSION Embedding macroecological drivers into WNV risk modelling provides an improved understanding of drivers of rapid WNV expansion. Our model enables proactive risk mapping, surveillance efforts, and targeted public health measures.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Estimating COVID-19 Cumulative Incidence from Seroprevalence Surveys accounting for Time-Varying Seroreversion: A Fully Bayesian Methodology

Seroprevalence surveys reveal the extent of humoral immunity against pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and under some circumstances represent cumulative incidence of prior infection. However, antibody waning - or seroreversion - biases these estimates by reducing assay sensitivity in a time-varying manner. Because assay sensitivity decays over time, naively using serosurveys can substantially bias estimates of SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence and fatality rates. The Bayesian assay-specific, time-varying sensitivity adjustment developed in this paper can reliably correct for this bias and account for the delay between infection and serosurvey. In seroprevalence studies conducted in the United States in 2020, adjusting for time-varying sensitivity increased cumulative incidence by up to 1.4-fold, with an adjustment of 1.08 for a national study. Our estimates contrast with a previously published 2-fold adjustment that did not account for assay design. This suggests that previous analyses overestimated cumulative incidence by applying seroreversion corrections that did not account for assay-specific effects, or underestimated cumulative incidence by not applying seroreversion corrections. These biases imply fatality rate underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Our model provides a framework for design-specific time-varying sensitivity corrections in seroprevalence surveys for other pathogens.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Inflationary branch decoherence and the cosmological arrow of time

作者:

arXiv:2602.21263v3 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We analyze branch decoherence in inflationary quantum cosmology by computing reduced density matrices and branch-overlap factors for long-wavelength perturbations. The Hartle-Hawking no-boundary state is real in the semiclassical regime and contains both expanding and contracting WKB components, whereas the tunneling state is selected as an outgoing complex WKB branch; expanding-contracting decoherence is therefore central for the former and mainly diagnostic for the latter. Using the influence-functional formalism, we derive the noise kernel for a light spectator environment and evaluate decoherence under horizon-based and EFT-motivated coarse grainings. We then compute the single-mode branch overlap directly from the Bunch-Davies mode functions, obtaining $|\mathcal{D}_k(z)|=[z^2/(z^2+1)]^{1/4}$ in the massless limit and $|\mathcal{D}_k(z)|\sim z^\nu$ on superhorizon scales for massive fields, where $z=-k\eta$ is the dimensionless wavenumber with $\eta$ the conformal time. In the massless case, the accumulated geometric branch functional is evaluated in closed form, with a leading cutoff-sensitive phase-space term and a universal subleading contribution. The calculation provides an explicit quantitative bridge between quantum-cosmological boundary conditions, inflationary squeezing, and the emergence of effectively classical cosmological histories.

22.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Quenched and Annealed CLTs for the one-periodic Aztec diamond in random environment

arXiv:2510.11846v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study the asymptotic behavior of random dimer coverings of the one-periodic Aztec diamond in random environment. We investigate quenched limit theorems for the height function and we extend annealed limit theorems that were recently studied in [arXiv:2507.08560]. We consider more general choices of random edge weights (independence is not assumed) and we distinguish two cases where the random edge weights satisfy the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) under different scalings. For both cases, we prove convergence to the Gaussian Free Field for the quenched fluctuations. For the annealed version, it had been shown in [arXiv:2507.08560], that Gaussian Free Field fluctuations can be dominated by the much larger fluctuations of the random environment. To access quenched fluctuations we analyze the Schur process with random parameters in a way that allows to prove the annealed CLT for the height function for non i.i.d. weights. We consider specific examples where we determine the asymptotic fluctuations.

23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

NeRD: Neuro-Symbolic Rule Distillation for Efficient Ontology-Grounded Chain-of-Thought in Medical Image Diagnosis

Interpretability is essential for trustworthy medical image diagnosis. However, existing concept-driven interpretable methods have key limitations: Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) require scoring all predefined concepts at inference time and for manual intervention, imposing a substantial burden on clinicians, while rationale-based generative approaches often select concepts by class discriminability, which can drift from diagnostic ontologies. To address these issues, we propose Neuro-Symbolic Rule Distillation (NeRD), a framework that produces efficient, ontology-grounded reasoning chains that are sufficient yet non-redundant, without manually crafting diagnostic rules. Experiments on two skin datasets demonstrate strong diagnostic performance and interpretability, and blinded expert evaluation confirms the clinical plausibility of NeRD rationales. Our method further enables a first expert-in-the-loop study for Multimodal Chain-of-Thought-based diagnosis, achieving efficient and effective concept-level intervention.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

MVAD: A Benchmark Dataset for Multimodal AI-Generated Video-Audio Detection

The rapid advancement of AI-generated multimodal video-audio content has raised significant concerns regarding information security and content authenticity. Existing synthetic video datasets predominantly focus on the visual modality alone, while the few incorporating audio are largely confined to facial deepfakes–a limitation that fails to address the expanding landscape of general multimodal AI-generated content and substantially impedes the development of trustworthy detection systems. To bridge this critical gap, we introduce the Multimodal Video-Audio Dataset (MVAD), the first comprehensive dataset specifically designed for detecting AI-generated multimodal video-audio content. Our dataset exhibits three key characteristics: (1) genuine multimodality with samples generated according to three realistic video-audio forgery patterns; (2) high perceptual quality achieved through diverse state-of-the-art generative models; and (3) comprehensive diversity spanning realistic and anime visual styles, four content categories (humans, animals, objects, and scenes), and four video-audio multimodal data types. Our dataset will be available at https://github.com/HuMengXue0104/MVAD.

25.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-19

Model-independent upper bounds for the prices of Bermudan options with convex payoffs

arXiv:2503.13328v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Suppose $\mu$ and $\nu$ are probability measures on $\mathbb{R}$ satisfying $\mu \leq_{cx} \nu$. Let $a$ and $b$ be convex functions on $\mathbb{R}$ with $a \geq b \geq 0$. We are interested in finding $$\sup_{\mathbf{M}} \sup_{\tau} \mathbb{E}^{\mathbf{M}} \left[ a(X) I_{ \{ \tau = 1 \} } + b(Y) I_{ \{ \tau = 2 \} } \right] $$ where the first supremum is taken over consistent models $\mathbf{M}$ (i.e., filtered probability spaces $(\Omega, \mathbf{F}, \mathbb{F}, \mathbb{P})$ such that $Z=(z,Z_1,Z_2)=(\int_{\mathbb{R}} x \mu(dx) = \int_{\mathbb{R}} y \nu(dy), X, Y)$ is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$ martingale, where $X$ has law $\mu$ and $Y$ has law $\nu$ under $\mathbb{P}$) and $\tau$ in the second supremum is a $(\mathbb{F},\mathbb{P})$-stopping time taking values in $\{1,2\}$. Our contributions are first to characterise and simplify the dual problem, and second to completely solve the problem under some structural assumptions on the measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ (namely that $\mu$ and $\nu$ are absolutely continuous probability measures that satisfy the Dispersion Assumption). A key finding is that the canonical set-up in which the filtration is that generated by $Z$ is not rich enough to define an optimal model and additional randomisation is required. This holds even though the marginal laws $\mu$ and $\nu$ are atom-free. The problem has an interpretation of finding the robust, or model-free, no-arbitrage bound on the price of a Bermudan option with two possible exercise dates, given the prices of co-maturing European options.