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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Enhanced Low-Density Region Exploration in Classifier-Guided Diffusion Models Through Modified Reverse Diffusion Sampling

arXiv:2606.13347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models have emerged as state-of-the-art generative models for high-fidelity image synthesis, particularly in their classifier-free guided and classifier-guided forms. However, standard classifier guidance concentrates probability mass around high-density class mean, leading to poor coverage of rare samples in the tails of the class-conditional distributions. Recent work on diffusion-based tail sampling mitigates this by training an additional low-density-seeking classifier with a synthetic-vs-real discriminator, at the cost of additional networks and training. In parallel, a number of samplers and distillation techniques accelerate or refine diffusion sampling, but do not explicitly address long-tail coverage. We propose a purely sampling-time, density-aware extension of classifier-guided conditional diffusion model that targets low-density regions without any additional training. We have applied guidance at noisy images not on predicted noise like most diffusion models. Starting from a pretrained conditional diffusion model and classifier on ImageNet, we modify the guided reverse dynamics by steering trajectories toward low-confidence regions via the modified classifier gradient, and at each time step, we also guide the sampling process toward the predicted real image. 1st guidance helps explore low-probability samples, and 2nd guidance helps to generate samples to be close to the real data manifold. The proposed sampler consistently improves ADM model recall at 64x64 resolution while maintaining a comparable FID, and with a 256x256 ADM model, we showed the results visually with different combinations of both guidance. We also showed that standard ADM classifier guidance, combined with predicted real image guidance, helps generate high perceptual quality samples with a 256x256 ADM model on ImageNet.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Neural ensemble Kalman filter: Data assimilation for compressible flows with shocks

arXiv:2602.23461v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data assimilation (DA) for compressible flows with shocks is challenging because many classical DA methods generate spurious oscillations and nonphysical features near uncertain shocks. We focus here on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We show that the poor performance of the EnKF may be attributed to the bimodal forecast distribution that can arise in the vicinity of an uncertain shock location; this violates the assumptions underpinning the EnKF, which assume a forecast which is close to Gaussian. To address this issue we introduce the new neural EnKF. The basic idea is to systematically embed neural function approximations within ensemble DA by mapping the forecast ensemble of shocked flows to the parameter space (weights and biases) of a deep neural network (NN) and to subsequently perform DA in that space. The nonlinear mapping encodes sharp and smooth flow features in an ensemble of NN parameters. Neural EnKF updates are therefore well-behaved only if the NN parameters vary smoothly within the neural representation of the forecast ensemble. We show that such a smooth variation of network parameters can be enforced via physics-informed transfer learning, and demonstrate that in so-doing the neural EnKF avoids the spurious oscillations and nonphysical features that plague the EnKF. The applicability of the neural EnKF is demonstrated through a series of systematic numerical experiments with the inviscid Burgers' equation, the Sod shock tube, and a two-dimensional blast wave.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

An epidemiological scenario for Mass Events During the World Cup

This brief work discusses potential superspreading events that may occur during the World Cup in Mexico. The study is particularly focused on the city of Guadalajara due to a large recent outbreak in January and February and insufficient vaccine coverage prior to 2026. Keywords: Superspreading; measles outbreak; branching process; individual reproduction number; World Cup

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

libhmm: A Modern C++20 Library for Hidden Markov Models with Correct MLE Emission M-Steps

作者:

arXiv:2605.29208v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We describe libhmm, a C++20 library for Hidden Markov Model parameter estimation, sequence decoding, and model selection. libhmm addresses two gaps in existing software: the absence of a well-maintained, zero-dependency C++ HMM library suitable for embedding in production systems, and the widespread use of method-of-moments (MOM) approximations in the emission distribution M-step of the Baum-Welch algorithm. The library implements correct maximum likelihood estimators for sixteen scalar emission distributions, including an ECME algorithm for the location-scale Student-t distribution, Newton-Raphson maximization for Gamma, Beta, Weibull, and Negative Binomial distributions, and the von Mises distribution for circular data. All forward-backward and Viterbi calculations operate in full log-space. SIMD acceleration is provided for AVX-512, AVX2, SSE2, and ARM NEON via compile-time dispatch with scalar fallback. Version 4 adds multivariate observation support via the BasicHmm template, with three multivariate emission families (diagonal Gaussian, full-covariance Gaussian, and independent components) each with correct weighted MLE M-steps. Python bindings are available via the companion package pylibhmm. We compare libhmm against established C and C++ HMM libraries and against published R reference packages on seven real-data benchmarks, and discuss the architectural tradeoffs made in the design.

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Diabetes and the Life-Course: Evidence from Panel Data and Electronic Health Records

Incidence of type 2 diabetes is increasing at ages when education, work, family, and financial transitions are taking place, yet we lack robust evidence of whether earlier treatment changes life-course outcomes and over which time span this takes place. This paper uses the medical cutoff for diabetes diagnosis (HbA1c of 6.5 percent) as a natural experiment to study the effects of diabetes treatment using electronic health records (EHR) and panel data. This paper has three main findings. First, using EHR data, we find that there is a sharp increase in the probability of both diagnosis of diabetes and prescription when the HbA1c equals 6.5 percent. Second, we find that treating diabetes reduces HbA1c levels, weight, BMI, and blood pressure and increases the amount of care received, proxied by the number of HbA1c tests. Both the diagnosis and a prescription are independently able to produce positive changes in metabolic health, although a prescription is more effective in this regard. Third, we conclude that treating diabetes does not have a significant effect on life-course outcomes for a cohort of young Americans aged 24-32, although it does result in a reduction in HbA1c levels that are seen even eight years after the intervention. Taken together, these findings suggest that receiving a diagnosis and prescription are both effective treatments for diabetes, but they do not translate to significant alterations in the lives of young adults in the medium-term.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

HAARES Half-Split Residual Basis Routing for Deep Transformers

作者:

arXiv:2606.06564v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Block-level residual routing makes learned residual aggregation practical by routing over block summaries, but each summary compresses an ordered sequence of attention and MLP updates into one cumulative vector. We propose \method{}, a lightweight residual basis router that keeps the cumulative block source and adds one half-split detail basis, computed as the difference between first-half and second-half residual updates. The detail basis is RMS-matched and updated online, exposing coarse intra-block trajectory information without dense sublayer-level routing. Across OpenWebText, cross-domain character-level benchmarks, and BPE-tokenized OpenWebText, the empirical pattern is depth-dependent: gains are small or mixed at shallow depth and most reliable in 48-layer models. In the 201M 48-layer setting, \method{} improves over Block AttnRes across all three seeds, while a 453M two-seed probe shows the same direction. Ablations rule out source duplication, random signed details, fixed detail-source biases, or block-count changes alone. Cost analysis shows that the method is FLOP-light but not wall-clock-free: it adds memory and routing overhead, yet its relative arithmetic cost is amortized as width grows and earlier convergence can reduce time-to-target.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Exploring Exotic Spin-Dependent Interactions Beyond the Standard Model: Theoretical Foundations and Experimental Investigations

arXiv:2606.13318v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: New interactions mediated by novel particles propose solutions to several important questions in modern physics. Axions serve as examples of such particles; they are lightweight and interact weakly with ordinary matter. This category of particles, including those similar to axions-termed Axion-Like Particles (ALPs)-arises from diverse theoretical frameworks, such as the Peccei-Quinn mechanism addressing the strong CP problem, string theory, and spontaneous supersymmetry breaking. Given their light mass and weak coupling, ALPs are also possible candidates for cold dark matter. Introducing these new interactions mediated by novel particles not only tackles several challenges in modern physics but also raises a crucial question: Are there undiscovered interactions beyond the Standard Model? Many of the interactions predicted by these theories are spin-dependent, which is the primary focus of this review. In this review, we first outline the theoretical foundations for investigating exotic spin-dependent interactions, highlighting their importance in various models beyond the Standard Model. We examine the potential roles of new lightweight particles in mediating these interactions, which may enhance our understanding of dark matter. Relevant formulas derived from theoretical models are included to support experimental investigations. Following this theoretical framework, we conduct a detailed review of recent experimental efforts to detect these exotic interactions. A systematic review of current constraints on these interactions is presented, along with an assessment of various detection approaches.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

GeoDial: A Multimodal Conversational Tutoring Dataset for Geometry Problem-Solving with Visual Tutor Turns

arXiv:2606.12419v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Several educational domains rely heavily on diagrams and visual cues, yet most existing tutoring datasets are limited to text-only interactions. This limits the development of AI tutors that can teach in visually grounded ways used by human instructors. Thus, we introduce GeoDial, a multimodal tutoring dataset of over 1.3K teacher-student dialogs in the domain of geometry collected from experienced math teachers, where instructional turns are explicitly grounded in diagram highlights. We propose a scalable annotation protocol that integrates dialog acts, visual highlighting, and feedback, enabling fine-grained supervision of both language and visual tutoring behavior. To illustrate the challenges posed by this setting, we fine-tune several vision-language models on GeoDial and evaluate their ability to generate tutoring utterances and diagram highlights. While supervised fine-tuning substantially improves the quality of generated dialog, it struggles to produce accurate diagram highlights, revealing a key limitation of current methods and highlighting the need for approaches that more effectively integrate visual reasoning with pedagogical interaction.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Fault Lines: Navigating Ethics and Responsible AI Where National Policy Meets Local Practice in Public Sector Transformation

arXiv:2606.13039v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The UK government has adopted a pro-AI stance to help transform public service delivery in the face of severe financial pressures, but the path to translate this vision into responsible AI practice remains ill-defined. While UK policy is often set at the national level, local authorities are responsible for most public service delivery, and the rapid advance of AI-first narratives in the public sector is exposing fault lines in knowledge and practice at this national-local interface. This paper examines how responsible AI is interpreted and implemented at the interface between the UK's central government and local authorities, taking the high-stakes area of Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) as a case study. We present a thematic analysis of 17 semi-structured interviews with policymakers, practitioners, and third-sector professionals to identify barriers and enabling conditions for responsible AI where national policy meets local practice. We identify five interconnected challenges facing local authorities: shadow usage of AI and data privacy risks, market-government asymmetry in AI provision, insufficient workforce readiness, a lack of standardised definitions and measurements, and gaps in human accountability. For each, participants proposed actionable steps, from strengthening data protection frameworks and rebalancing the market-government relationship to enhancing workforce capacity. Our examination of SEND brings these challenges into sharper focus, showing how high-stakes decisions affecting vulnerable children and families intensify tensions around accountability, fairness, and human oversight, exposing the limits of a principle-based regulatory approach. We argue that responsible public sector AI requires both national policy adjustments and structural reforms to institutional capacity, values, and governance mechanisms at the local level.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

No One-Size-Fits-All Neurons: Task-based Neurons for Artificial Neural Networks

arXiv:2405.02369v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In the past decade, many successful networks are on novel architectures, which almost exclusively use the same type of neurons. Recently, more and more deep learning studies have been inspired by the idea of NeuroAI and the neuronal diversity observed in human brains, leading to the proposal of novel artificial neuron designs. Designing well-performing neurons represents a new dimension relative to designing well-performing neural architectures. Biologically, the brain does not rely on a single type of neuron that universally functions in all aspects. Instead, in our brain, neurons are often task-based. In this study, we address the following question: since the human brain is a task-based neuron user, can the artificial network design go from the task-based architecture design to the task-based neuron design? Since methodologically there are no one-size-fits-all neurons, given the same structure, task-based neurons can enhance the feature representation ability relative to the existing universal neurons due to the intrinsic inductive bias for the task. Specifically, we propose a two-step framework for prototyping task-based neurons. As the initial step, we evaluate the proposed framework using polynomials as base functions. Empirically, systematic experimental results on synthetic data, classic benchmarks, and real-world applications show that the proposed task-based neuron design is not only feasible but also delivers competitive performance over other state-of-the-art models.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Efficient time-series prediction on NISQ devices via time-delayed quantum extreme learning machine

arXiv:2602.21544v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We proposed a time-delayed quantum extreme learning machine (TD-QELM) for efficient time-series prediction on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. By encoding multiple past inputs simultaneously, TD-QELM achieves shallow circuit depth independent of sequence length, thereby, mitigating noise accumulation and reducing computational complexity. Experiments using the NARMA benchmark on both noiseless simulations and IBM's 127-qubit processor demonstrate that TD-QELM consistently outperforms conventional quantum reservoir computing in prediction accuracy and noise robustness. These results highlight TD-QELM as a practical and scalable framework for time-series learning on current NISQ hardware.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Neuro-Relational Programs: Unifying Queries and Neural Computation over Structured Data

arXiv:2606.11946v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The conventional approach to deep learning over relational databases applies neural models, such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), to a graph representation of the database. Recent approaches instead operate on databases directly, associating tuples with embeddings and extending query mechanisms to jointly process embeddings and relational content. Inspired by these developments, we introduce Neuro-Relational Programs (NRPs), a declarative query language for relational databases whose facts carry numeric vector embeddings. NRPs extend Datalog-style rules with operations that combine, aggregate, and transform embeddings, thereby interleaving relational reasoning and learnable neural components within a single formalism. This yields a general approach to neural computation over relational data: an NRP can be read both as a query plan with trainable components and as a neural architecture with relational structure built in. Natural syntactic fragments of NRPs recover existing architectures and query formalisms. Zero-ary NRPs correspond to non-adaptive query algorithms; monadic NRPs generalize GNN-style message passing and precisely capture Deep Homomorphism Networks, a connection that we extend to frontier-guarded NRPs over databases with row-ids. We characterize the expressive power of unrestricted NRPs with ReLU-FFN transformations by FOCQ, an extension of first-order logic with counting interpreted over real-weighted structures, yielding a precise connection with uniform TC$^0$ over ordered databases. Together, these results establish NRPs as a broad declarative framework for querying and neural computation over relational data.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Rolling Stock Planning Using the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm

arXiv:2606.11383v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Rolling stock planning is a complex optimization problem in railway management that involves assigning physical trains to scheduled trips while minimizing operational costs. In this work, we address a specific instance of this problem featuring 190 trips over two days, subject to constraints such as mandatory maintenance stops. We reformulate the problem as a Maximum-Weight Independent Set (MWIS) problem on a graph where nodes represent feasible train cycles. To handle the computational complexity of the large search space, we propose a hybrid divide-and-conquer algorithm. This approach iteratively selects subgraphs and solves the MWIS problem using various solvers, including exact classical methods and the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA). We evaluate the algorithm's performance by comparing these methods and analyzing the scaling with respect to subgraph size, with QAOA assessed through both classical simulation and execution on a quantum device (IQM Emerald). Our results indicate that increasing the subgraph size generally improves solution quality, demonstrating that the hybrid framework can effectively bridge the gap between polynomial-time approximate solvers and exponential-time exact methods.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Pano3D: Unified 3D Reconstruction and Panoptic Segmentation

Recent advances in 3D feedforward reconstruction neural networks have achieved remarkable success in dense reconstruction from images without any camera parameters. Yet, equipping these models with robust semantic understanding remains an open problem. Here we introduce an approach that performs 3D reconstruction and 3D panoptic segmentation in a unified framework. We build on existing 3D reconstruction models and augment them with a set-based mask decoder. The approach is jointly trained with a geometric and semantic loss, which are shown to be mutually beneficial. More precisely, the features are initialized from the geometric information and then finetuned to capture jointly geometry and semantics. We demonstrate the generality of our approach by successfully applying our framework both to online and all-to-all attention reconstruction backbones. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in 3D panoptic segmentation across ScanNet, ScanNet200, and ScanNet++ datasets. Ablation studies show that such joint training of a unified model equips 3D feedforward reconstruction neural networks with panoptic segmentation and yields mutually beneficial improvements.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Humor Style Drives Laughter, Topic Shapes Acceptability: Evaluating Bilingual Personal and Political Robot-Delivered AI Jokes

arXiv:2606.13256v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Humor plays a central role in human social relationships, and recent advances in computational humor create new opportunities for integrating humor into human-robot interaction (HRI). While large language models (LLMs) can generate diverse forms of humor, it remains unclear how humor style, joke content, and language preference shape perceptions of robot-delivered humor in group settings. In this exploratory study, we employed a mixed factorial design in which participants evaluated AI-generated jokes delivered by a robot in a university classroom. We examined the effects of humor type (Affiliative, Self-Enhancing, Aggressive, Self-Defeating) and joke content (person-related vs. political) on perceived funniness and appropriateness, as well as preferred language. Results show that humor type significantly influences funniness, with Aggressive and Affiliative humor rated higher, while joke content primarily affects appropriateness, with person-related jokes preferred over political ones. Language preference was shaped by both joke content and participants' self-reported fluency and humor practices.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Selective Synergistic Learning for Video Object-Centric Learning

Typical video object-centric learning (VOCL) approaches employ slot-based frameworks that rely on reconstruction-driven encoder-decoder architectures, where learning is mediated by two spatial maps: attention maps from the encoder and object maps from the decoder. As these two distinct maps exhibit different properties, a recent dense alignment strategy attempted to reconcile this discrepancy by enforcing agreement across all spatio-temporal patches via contrastive learning. However, this indiscriminate alignment inadvertently propagates the inherent weaknesses of each module, such as noisy encoder predictions and blurred decoder boundaries. Moreover, computing dense similarities across all pairs incurs a computational cost quadratic in the total number of spatio-temporal patches, severely limiting scalability. Motivated by this, we propose Selective Synergistic Learning (SSync). Instead of exhaustive patch-to-patch alignment, SSync prevents error propagation by selectively distilling only the most reliable cues: leveraging the encoder strictly for boundary refinement and the decoder for interior denoising. This is realized via a pseudo-labeling with linear complexity, eliminating the need for quadratic spatial comparisons. Also, to prevent the reinforcement of architectural biases like slot redundancy, we introduce a transitive pseudo-label merging that consolidates overlapping slots based on spatio-temporal activation consistency. Extensive studies demonstrate that SSync improves decomposition quality and serves as a versatile, plug-and-play module while also exhibiting exceptional robustness to slot configurations. Code is available at github.com/wjun0830/SSync.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Stochastic trace estimation with tensor train random vectors

arXiv:2606.15679v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic trace estimation is a standard tool for approximating the trace of a large-scale matrix available only through matrix-vector products. However, in tensor-structured settings, unstructured Gaussian or Rademacher test vectors may be prohibitively expensive to store and compute with, while cheaper rank-one tensor-product vectors can require sample complexities that grow exponentially with the tensor order. This work studies Gaussian random tensor train vectors as a structured alternative for stochastic trace estimation. We show that, with a suitable choice of the tensor train rank, random tensor train vectors recover dimension-independent guarantees for the Girard–Hutchinson estimator. In particular, a median-of-means variant with tensor train rank $r \geq d-1$ achieves the same dependence on the accuracy $\varepsilon$ and failure probability $\delta$ as the classical estimator based on unstructured Gaussian vectors. We further prove an oblivious subspace injection result for sketches formed from independent Gaussian random tensor train vectors: tensor train rank $r\geq d-1$ and $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}(k+\log(1/\delta)))$ samples suffice for a $k$-dimensional target subspace. Finally, we investigate the use of such sketches within the Nystr\"{o}m++ framework. We show that the resulting estimator can achieve the desired $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$ sample complexity under an additional spectral-tail condition. These results provide clarififcation on both the potential and the limitations of random tensor train vectors in stochastic trace estimation.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Reliability-Aware Prototype Calibration for Frozen Pose-Flow Video Anomaly Detection

Pose-flow video anomaly detectors are attractive for one-class surveillance because they provide likelihood-based rankings for tracked skeleton windows. However, a single likelihood score may hide multimodal normal behavior and be sensitive to pose-observation noise. We study a frozen-detector setting in which the pose-flow backbone, cached skeleton tracks, and evaluation pipeline are fixed. Reliability-Aware Prototype Calibration (RPC) is a post-hoc score calibration method for this setting. It adds a standardized nearest-prototype deviation in the frozen latent space to the standardized flow score, and uses keypoint confidence only to gate this added geometric evidence. Thus, RPC preserves the original density signal while correcting the ranking with empirical normal-mode structure under pose reliability. Across two frozen pose-flow backbones and four datasets, RPC improves frame-level AUROC in all eight backbone-dataset pairs, with gains ranging from 0.34 to 4.49 percentage points and averaging 2.03 points. Ablation and reliability analyses show that prototype deviation is the main corrective signal, while reliability gating is most useful when pose observations are less trustworthy. These results suggest that lightweight post-hoc calibration can strengthen cached pose-flow systems when retraining or reproducing the full pose pipeline is impractical.

20.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-09

Multi-stable oscillations in cortical networks with two classes of inhibition

by Arnab Dey Sarkar, Bard Ermentrout In the classical view of cortical rhythms, interactions between excitatory pyramidal neurons (E) and inhibitory parvalbumin-expressing interneurons (I) are sufficient to generate gamma- and beta-band oscillations. However, it is now well established that multiple inhibitory interneuron subtypes exist and that they play important roles in the generation and modulation of these rhythms. In this paper, we develop a spiking network model consisting of populations of E, I, and an additional interneuron type, somatostatin-expressing neurons (S), which receive excitation from the E cells and inhibit both the E and I populations. The S cells are further modulated by a third inhibitory subtype, vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) neurons, which receive inputs from other cortical areas. We reduce the spiking network to a system of nine differential equations that describe the mean membrane potential, firing rate, and synaptic conductance for each population. Using this reduced model, we identify a wide range of parameters that exhibit multiple coexisting rhythms. Employing tools from nonlinear dynamics, we then explore the roles of the two classes of inhibition, as well as VIP modulation, in shaping the properties of these rhythms.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Inside the Latent Flow: Causal Deciphering of Attention Dynamics in Audio Separation Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.10046v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Flow-matching transformers achieve strong audio separation, yet their attention dynamics are opaque. We adapt established causal-intervention principles into a deterministic, inference-time probing protocol for SAM Audio. Orthogonal probing uncovers a dual-pathway text-conditioning mechanism: additive injections control semantic identity, while cross-attention refines acoustic structure. We observe an asynchronous layerwise convergence: stable layers build temporal scaffolds early, whereas fast layers continue resolving artifacts during sampling. The model also attenuates temporal segmentation cues to maintain continuous-flow stability. Using these insights, we propose Layer-Selective Attention Caching (LSAC), a training-free acceleration method that caches attention in stable layers. Across acoustic complexities, LSAC cuts self-attention computation by about ~25% with negligible quality loss and yields up to 6.7x higher quality retention than naive step reduction.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Comparative Study of Neural Surrogate Architectures for Autoregressive Prediction of Internal Battery States

arXiv:2606.20053v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) model resolves internal electrochemical states in lithium-ion batteries with high fidelity. However, the numerical solution of its governing equations is computationally prohibitive for real-time deployment, limiting scalability from individual cells to pack and fleet-scale applications. While machine learning surrogates can substantially reduce inference latency through GPU acceleration, most existing approaches learn solution approximations tied to specific operating conditions rather than learning generalizable state-evolution dynamics. This work presents a systematic comparison of four neural network architectures (MLP, ResNet, U-Net, FNO) formulated as autoregressive state-transition operators that predict full DFN internal states across a wide range of operating conditions. To ensure a controlled architectural comparison, all models are trained under a unified framework using multi-step unrolling and current-conditioning, isolating the impact of spatial inductive bias. Results demonstrate that the U-Net's multi-scale feature hierarchy achieves a mean final-step nRMSE of 3% averaged across all internal state variables after 300-step autoregressive rollouts, while providing a 5.38x speed-up over the numerical solver. These findings highlight spatial inductive bias as a critical determinant of surrogate performance, advancing the development of surrogates for internal state observability for next-generation battery management systems and digital twins.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Forecasting Future Behavior as a Learning Task

arXiv:2606.11445v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Dementia Risk: Integrating Mendelian Randomization and Target Trial Emulation Within the Heart-Brain Axis

Background: The heart-brain axis links cardiovascular and neurodegenerative disease through shared vascular and inflammatory mechanisms. Although low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is an established causal factor in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), its relationship with dementia remains uncertain, with midlife elevations associated with increased risk but late-life associations often appearing null or inverse. To address this cholesterol paradox, we integrated mendelian randomization (MR) with an active-comparator new-user target trial emulation. Methods: We applied a triangulated causal inference framework integrating two-sample MR with observational target trial emulation. Genetic variants associated with LDL-C were used as instrumental variables to evaluate Alzheimer disease (AD), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and any dementia (AnyDem), with causal estimates derived using inverse-variance weighted models and sensitivity analyses for heterogeneity and pleiotropy. In parallel, an active-comparator new-user design compared statin versus ezetimibe initiation among adults aged 60 years or older using propensity score (PS) overlap weighting and Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate cardiovascular and dementia outcomes. Results: Genetically predicted LDL-C was associated with increased risk of DLB (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.30-2.10; p

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

How to sketch a learning algorithm

作者:

arXiv:2604.07328v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: How does the choice of training data influence an AI model? This broad question is of central importance to interpretability, privacy, and basic science. At its technical core is the data deletion problem: after a reasonable amount of precomputation, quickly predict how the model would behave in a given situation if a given subset of training data had been excluded from the learning algorithm. We present a data deletion scheme capable of predicting model outputs with vanishing error $\varepsilon$ and failure probability $\delta$ in the deep learning setting. Our precomputation and prediction algorithms are only $\tilde{O}(\log(1/\delta)/\varepsilon^2)$ factors slower than regular training and inference, respectively. The storage requirements are those of $\tilde{O}(\log(1/\delta)/\varepsilon^2)$ models. Our proof is based on an assumption that we call stability. In contrast to the assumptions made by prior work, stability appears to be fully compatible with learning powerful AI models. In support of this, we show that stability is satisfied in a minimal set of experiments with microgpt. Our code is available at https://github.com/SamSpo1/microgpt-sketch. At a technical level, our work is based on a new method for locally sketching an arithmetic circuit by computing higher-order derivatives in random complex directions. Forward-mode automatic differentiation allows cheap computation of these derivatives.