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01.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

SIMMER: Benchmarking Latent Failures in LLM Executable Planning with a World Model

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as planners for autonomous agents in household environments. While existing benchmarks evaluate whether LLM-generated plans execute successfully, they overlook a critical type of failure: latent failures. Unlike immediate failures that trigger instant feedback at execution time and enable timely correction, latent failures do not immediately halt plan execution but silently compromise goal achievement. In severe cases, they cause irreversible harm. To address this gap, we introduce SIMMER, a benchmark for evaluating latent failures in LLM planning through a human-curated symbolic world model grounded in the kitchen domain. SIMMER defines a world model comprising 77 actions, 262 unique objects, and approximately 46,800 possible interactions that are semantically realistic, derived from real-world cooking scripts. It then leverages a state machine executor that validates plans against the world model and detects immediate precondition violations, latent hazards, and irreversible failures. Experiments across six LLMs show that even frontier models achieve at most 17% error-free plans. Moreover, up to 56% of plans contain latent failures, the majority of which lead to irreversible consequences. We further demonstrate that explicit state reasoning via counterfactual foresight simulation can reduce latent failures by up to 72% and irreversible cases by up to 75%, suggesting a promising direction for more robust LLM planners.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

AFFORDANCE20Q: Evaluating Affordance Reasoning from Physical Properties

arXiv:2606.14240v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Affordance reasoning, the inference of an object's action possibilities from its physical properties (e.g., shape and material), is fundamental to human physical understanding and increasingly critical for Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing affordance benchmarks largely expose explicit object identities in the evaluation setup, allowing models to rely on memorized object-affordance mappings rather than reasoning over physical properties. To address this gap, we introduce Affordance20Q, a novel affordance reasoning benchmark formulated as a 20-Questions game without exposing the object's identity. In each game, the model identifies a hidden object's affordance from a candidate set by asking yes/no questions about its physical properties. Affordance20Q comprises 1,009 games over 454 objects and 59 affordances, all manually filtered, refined, and annotated. We conduct comprehensive experiments with 15 state-of-the-art LLMs and find a substantial gap (~20 points) compared to human performance. A KL-based information-gain (IG) analysis further shows that models fail to ask discriminating questions as the game progresses. To close the gap, we develop KB-Anchored Rule Induction (KARI), a pipeline based on LLMs that generates affordance rules grounded in evidence from knowledge bases (KBs). KARI improves open-source LLMs by up to 15.2 points, while the limited coverage of KBs hinders further gains. We release all our code and data at https://github.com/1171-jpg/Affordance20Q.git

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

ReQAT: Achieving Full-Precision Reasoning Accuracy with 4-bit Floating-Point Quantization-Aware Training

arXiv:2606.15682v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) achieve strong problem-solving through long chain-of-thought, but their deployment is constrained by the high cost of full-precision inference and growing KV cache footprints. Microscaled FP4 formats enable efficient FP4 deployment; however, fully quantizing weights, activations, and KV caches (W4A4KV4) causes severe reasoning degradation that existing PTQ and QAT fail to recover. We identify that FP4 failures concentrate on low-entropy tokens–precise symbolic commitments such as digits and operators–where quantization noise inflates sampling errors that cascade through reasoning traces. Based on this insight, we propose ReQAT, a reasoning-centric FP4 training framework with three components: (i) Trace-Aligned QAT (TAQ), which revisits identical reasoning traces to focus updates on critical low-entropy decisions; (ii) Selective Entropy Minimization (SEM), which reinforces confidence at low-entropy positions; and (iii) Q-FIT, a quantization-friendly initialization that jointly calibrates RoPE-consistent KV cache transformations to stabilize QAT. Under the same training budget, ReQAT not only recovers but surpasses BF16 fine-tuning accuracy, while delivering up to 3.9x throughput speedup on NVIDIA DGX Spark and 3.1x on B200.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Towards Verifiable Agentic Data Science: Solving Irregular TSQA Via Tool-Grounded Reasoning

arXiv:2606.15107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series data in real-world deployments is overwhelmingly irregular. Observations are asynchronous, missing values are informative rather than random, and sampling frequencies vary across sensors and operational windows. However, existing Time Series Question Answering (TSQA) benchmarks mostly assume regularly sampled inputs, leaving a fundamental gap in understanding how large language models (LLMs) and AI agents perform under irregular conditions. To bridge this gap, we introduce IRTS-ToolBench, a benchmark of 1,700 questions spanning 10 task types across 13 domains. IRTS-ToolBench is designed to be used independently by any researcher working on LLM-based irregular time series analysis, providing standardized inputs and a reproducible evaluation protocol. Code can be found in https://github.com/SanhornC/IRTS-ToolBench.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

DragMesh-2: Physically Plausible Dexterous Hand-Object Interaction with Articulated Objects

Dexterous interaction with articulated objects is important for household, assistive, and humanoid manipulation, where multi-finger hands can provide compliant contact patterns beyond parallel-jaw grasping. However, articulated-object manipulation differs from static-object manipulation: the target part cannot be directly actuated, and its motion must emerge through sustained physical hand–handle contact. This makes the transition from object-centric articulated generation to hand-driven dexterous hand–object interaction non-trivial, since geometric trajectory replay or open-loop execution does not model the contact dynamics required to move the articulated part. Moreover, policies trained only for task completion under fixed dynamics can overfit nominal contact loads, especially without tactile or force feedback, and may degrade when the contact load changes. To address these challenges, we present DragMesh-2, a contact-driven framework for dexterous interaction with articulated objects that extends articulated interaction from object-centric generation to hand-driven dexterous hand–object interaction, where articulated motion must arise through physical contact. We further propose PICA, a physically informed contact-aware training mechanism that injects physical signals into policy learning without tactile or force feedback, improving robustness and task success under changing contact loads. Finally, we conduct systematic evaluation across multiple damping conditions and articulated-object categories to study robustness under contact-load variation, and provide a pure-geometry dexterous interaction resource to support future loco-manipulation and humanoid hand–object interaction research. Across seven GAPartNet objects, DragMesh-2 achieves stronger robustness under contact-load variation than the compared methods while maintaining high task success across damping conditions.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

OdysSim: Building Foundation Models for Human Behavior Simulation

Large language models are increasingly deployed as human simulators for interactive evaluation and social simulation. Yet helpfulness-driven post-training pulls them toward a homogeneous, overly agreeable assistant register, creating a behavioral Sim2Real gap. We present OdysSim, the largest open systematic investigation of behavioral foundation models, i.e., models trained to simulate human behavior at scale. We propose SOUL, a taxonomy of five capability axes (CONV, SS, COG, ROLE, EVAL) that unifies 62 datasets and 23 benchmark tasks under one framework. Specifically, we curate the OdysSim corpus (21.4M interactions, 10B tokens, retrofitted with back-generated social contexts), construct the SOUL-Index benchmark, and develop an end-to-end training recipe combining midtraining, task-specific RL, and expert distillation. The resulting open 8B OSim model ranks first or tied-first on 8 of 23 tasks, outperforming any individual frontier model by this count, with the strongest gains on conversational and social tasks. Its outputs are also more human-like in length, formatting, and word choice, and it transfers zero-shot to out-of-distribution user simulation on $\tau$-bench, nearly matching real users on reaction alignment (93.2 vs. 93.5). We further show that LLM-as-judge RL induces reward-hacking patterns, and that our detectors can mitigate them during post-training. Together, our findings suggest that behavioral foundation models require rethinking the LLM training paradigm. We release all artifacts to support future research.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Metastatic Patterns and Treatment Characteristics of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer in Nigeria: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive breast cancer subtype characterized by the absence of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression. It is associated with limited targeted treatment options, early relapse, and a high propensity for visceral metastasis. Data describing metastatic patterns and treatment characteristics of TNBC in Nigeria remain limited. Methods: This retrospective descriptive cohort study included 869 patients with TNBC managed at the Medserve-LUTH Cancer Center, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria between June 2019 and June 2024. Demographic, clinicopathologic, metastatic, and treatment-related data were extracted from electronic medical records. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient characteristics, metastatic patterns, and treatment profiles. Associations between metastatic disease and selected clinicopathologic and treatment variables were explored using Pearsons chi-square test. Complete-case analysis was applied throughout. Results: The mean age at presentation was 52.09 {+/-} 12.26 years. Most patients were married (79.1%), postmenopausal (64.3%), and of Yoruba ethnicity (56.8%). Advanced disease predominated, with Stage III and Stage IV disease accounting for 42.9% and 35.6% of cases, respectively. Invasive ductal carcinoma was the most common histologic subtype (77.0%), while Grade II tumours constituted 51.3% of graded cases. Surgery was performed in 73.1% of patients, predominantly mastectomy (70.9% of surgical procedures). Chemotherapy was administered to 83.2% of patients, most commonly anthracycline-based regimens (41.8%), while radiotherapy was delivered to 63.5% of patients, with hypofractionated schedules of 42-43 Gy in 15-16 fractions accounting for 47.2% of radiotherapy courses. Metastatic disease was documented in 32.9% of evaluable patients. Lung metastasis was the most frequent site (62.5%), followed by bone (46.3%), regional lymph node invasion (38.5%), liver (23.0%), and brain (22.6%). Tumour grade and histologic subtype were not significantly associated with metastatic disease, whereas radiotherapy exposure demonstrated a significant association with metastatic status ({chi}{superscript 2} = 10.35, p = 0.001). Conclusion: TNBC in this Nigerian cohort was characterized by advanced-stage presentation, invasive ductal predominance, extensive use of multimodality treatment, and substantial visceral metastatic burden. Lung metastasis was the most common metastatic site. These findings provide contemporary real-world data on TNBC in Nigeria and highlight the continuing need for earlier diagnosis, timely referral, and sustained investment in comprehensive cancer care services.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Towards Understanding What State Space Models Learn About Code

arXiv:2602.06774v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: State Space Models (SSMs) have emerged as an efficient alternative to the Transformer architecture. Prior work shows that, when trained under comparable conditions, SSMs can match or surpass Transformers on code understanding tasks. However, their internal mechanisms remain a black box. We present the first systematic analysis of what SSM-based code models learn along with the direct comparison between SSM and Transformer models in this domain. Our analysis shows that SSMs capture syntactic and semantic structure more effectively than Transformers during pretraining but forgets certain relations during fine-tuning on some tasks. To investigate this behavior, we introduce SSM-Interpret, a frequency-domain framework that exposes a spectral shift toward short-range dependencies during fine-tuning. Guided by these findings, we propose architectural modifications that significantly improve the performance of SSM-based code model by upto +6 MRR on NLCodeSearch. This demonstrates that our analysis not only explains model behavior but also leads directly to better designs.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Learned Image Compression for Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-language-action (VLA) models increasingly rely on high-frequency multi-camera observations, making visual communication a major bottleneck for real-time robotic control in bandwidth-constrained or distributed deployment settings. Existing image and video codecs, however, are designed to preserve generic visual fidelity rather than the control performance of downstream VLA policies. In this work, we introduce SPARC (SPatially Adaptive Rate Control), a learned image compression framework tailored for VLA-driven robots. Our key observation is that the importance of visual information varies substantially across both camera views and spatial regions within an image. Based on this observation, SPARC employs a lightweight temporal mask selector that adaptively allocates bitrate over latent representations according to task relevance while leveraging temporal context. We further introduce a tilted rate loss that stabilizes training by reducing the tendency of entropy-based objectives to over-suppress rare yet task-critical visual patterns. Experiments on diverse robotic benchmarks, including RoboCasa365, VLABench, and LIBERO, show that SPARC consistently achieves stronger control performance than conventional image/video codecs and recent learned compression methods under the same bitrate budget. We additionally demonstrate real-world deployment benefits in remote-control settings, where our method substantially improves the bitrate-success tradeoff.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Matrix-product state skeletons in Onsager-integrable quantum chains

arXiv:2511.07212v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Matrix-product state (MPS) skeletons are connected networks of Hamiltonians with exact MPS ground states that underlie a phase diagram. Such skeletons have previously been found in classes of free-fermion models. For the translation-invariant BDI and AIII free-fermion classes, it has been shown that the underlying skeleton is dense, giving an analytic approach to MPS approximation of ground states anywhere in the class. In this paper, we partially expose the skeleton in certain interacting spin chains: the $N$-state Onsager-integrable chiral clock families. We construct MPS that form a dense MPS skeleton in the gapped regions surrounding a sequence of fixed-point Hamiltonians (the generators of the Onsager algebra). Outside these gapped regions, these MPS remain eigenstates, but no longer give the many-body ground state. Rather, they are ground states in particular sectors of the spectrum. Our methods also allow us to find further MPS eigenstates; these correspond to low-lying excited states within the aforementioned gapped regions. This set of MPS excited states goes beyond the previous analysis of ground states on the $N=2$ free-fermion MPS skeleton. As an application of our results, we find a closed form for the disorder parameter in a family of interacting models. Finally, we remark that many of our results use only the Onsager algebra and are not specific to the chiral clock model representation.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

A Stabilized Path-Space Approach to Diffusion-Based Posterior Sampling

arXiv:2606.12710v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diffusion models provide expressive data-driven priors for Bayesian inverse problems, but many diffusion posterior samplers rely on heuristic guidance approximations that can fail for nonlinear operators and multimodal posteriors. In this work, we develop a stabilized path-space framework for diffusion-based posterior sampling. Starting from a base diffusion process whose terminal marginal represents the prior, we define a likelihood-weighted target measure on trajectories and cast posterior sampling as learning a controlled stochastic process whose path measure matches this target. This formulation connects diffusion posterior sampling to stochastic optimal control while preserving the Bayesian structure needed for uncertainty quantification. We introduce a time reparameterization that makes the path-space control problem well posed by removing the bias induced by the unknown initial value function, without auxiliary training. We then learn the control via a trust-region path-space optimization method with log-variance objectives. The path-space perspective also unifies our learned control approach with existing guidance-based samplers, quantifies the sampling error induced by approximate controls, and yields importance sampling corrections for asymptotically exact posterior expectations. We evaluate the proposed framework on a suite of benchmark inverse problems with analytically characterized or high-quality reference posteriors, enabling principled assessment of sampling accuracy and uncertainty quantification. These experiments provide insight into the behavior of diffusion-based posterior samplers and demonstrate improved accuracy and robustness over leading approaches.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Observation of Non-Gaussian Magnon Dynamics in a Two-Dimensional Long-Range XY Model

arXiv:2606.13499v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Non-Gaussian evolution of high-order spin correlations characterizes important properties of quantum many-body systems. In practice, decoherence, statistical fluctuation and miscalibration of experimental parameters all hinder the witness of non-Gaussian dynamics. Here we demonstrate the crossover between Gaussian and non-Gaussian dynamics on a two-dimensional XY model with long-range and spatially structured interaction using a trapped ion quantum simulator. We prepare different initial densities of magnon excitations and verify the dynamics of single-spin observables for the engineered Hamiltonian. Then we compare the high-order spin correlations with the mean-field solution and the Holstein-Primakoff approximation, and demonstrate the non-Gaussian behavior in a way independent of the calibration errors. Our work provides a verifiable path from classically simulatable dynamics to regimes where quantum advantage may emerge.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Translating the Untranslatable: An Operationalizable Ontology for Untranslatability

Untranslatability, cases where meaning cannot be directly preserved across languages, is well-studied in linguistics but underexplored in NLP. As machine translation (MT) systems improve on standard benchmarks, their limitations increasingly concentrate in such cases, where translation cannot be reduced to one-to-one equivalence. We introduce a structured ontology of untranslatability along with a taxonomy of compensation strategies, which are specific techniques to convey meaning under these untranslatable circumstances. We operationalize this framework into a multilingual dataset of untranslatable sentences paired with strategy-based translations, enabling controlled analysis of translation behavior. Initial human preference studies suggest that translation quality depends on the strategy used, with consistent preferences for outputs that include explanatory context, known as the Annotation compensation strategy. Our framework and dataset provide a foundation for studying and modeling strategy-informed machine translation.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

CAPED: Context-Aware Privacy Exposure Defense for Mobile GUI Agents

arXiv:2606.12666v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Screenshot-based mobile GUI agents can operate ordinary smartphone apps through the same visual interface as a human user, but this capability also turns every screen observation into a privacy boundary. During normal task execution, screenshots may expose contacts, messages, photos, files, recommendations, health cues, and other sensitive context that is unrelated to the user's request. We call this problem incidental visual privacy exposure. It is difficult to address with existing defenses: text anonymization misses many visual and inferential cues, while generic privacy masking can remove the evidence and controls that a GUI agent needs to complete the task. This paper presents CAPED, a context-aware pre-upload exposure control layer for mobile GUI agents. CAPED is designed as a phone-side protection layer: before screenshots are released to a remote multimodal agent, it extracts task requirements, uses screen context as a privacy prior, parses visible UI elements, and selectively exposes only content needed for the current task while masking incidental private content. We evaluate CAPED on AndroidWorld for broad task utility and with a controlled 28-task seeded privacy evaluation used as a measurement instrument for trajectory-level incidental leakage. In this seeded evaluation, Full CAPED reduces success-conditioned weighted seeded leakage from 0.766 under raw screenshots to 0.268 while preserving high task utility. A broader AndroidWorld run shows a remaining prototype-level utility cost, but the results support the central claim that screenshot upload should be treated as an explicit device–cloud boundary decision, governed by task-driven selective exposure rather than all-or-nothing screen sharing.

16.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

On the $d$-rigidity phase transition in random graphs

作者:

arXiv:2605.25711v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study generic $d$-dimensional rigidity in sparse random graphs. Our main result is that for every $d\ge 2$, the Erdős–Rényi random graph $G\sim G(n,c/n)$ undergoes a $d$-rigidity phase transition at the known, explicit, $d$-orientability threshold $c_d$: If $cc_d$, then $G$ is a.a.s. not independent in the generic $d$-rigidity matroid, and we give a sharp asymptotic estimate for its rank. In addition, the $d$-rigidity closure of $G$ has a giant clique of linear size, which contains all but at most $o(n)$ vertices of the $((d+1)+d)$-core of the graph. More generally, we compute, up to a $1+o(1)$ factor, the generic $d$-rigidity rank of random graphs with a given degree distribution. For example, we show that the uniform $n$-vertex $k$-regular graph a.a.s. has rank $\min(k/2,d)n+o(n).$ Our approach is to estimate the rigidity rank of a random graph from its Galton–Watson local weak limit, using a parameter that we call local flexibility.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Fodor and Pylyshyn's Systematicity Challenge Still Stands

The recent successes of neural networks producing human-like language have caused significant stir in cognitive science, with many researchers arguing that classical puzzles about human cognition and challenges to artificial intelligence are being solved by neural networks. A notable case is the argument from systematicity due to Jerry Fodor and Zenon Pylyshyn, argues that humans display systematic biconditional dependencies. For example, someone can understand the sentence "John saw Mary" just in case that they understand the sentence "Mary saw John." Symbolic systems explain this systematicity of language and thought, while neural networks offer no immediate explanation. Several recent articles argue that this challenge has now been met by neural networks. In particular, Brenden Lake and Marco Baroni argue that their meta-learning for compositionality protocol matches and perhaps explains human systematicity. We demonstrate that these conclusions are premature. Among other results, we found that their model struggles to learn rules that are even slightly out of distribution compared to their training data. Furthermore, the model behaves unsystematically even on many within-distribution problems. We conclude that Fodor and Pylyshyn's challenge to neural networks remains unmet.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Position: Hippocampal Explicit Memory Is the Cornerstone for AGI

作者:

arXiv:2606.11245v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks, raising expectations for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This position paper argues that integrating explicit memory is the cornerstone for advancing LLMs toward AGI. The key reason is that the underlying learning mechanism of LLMs is highly analogous to human implicit memory. However, higher-order cognitive functions necessary for AGI, such as long-term strategic planning, metacognition, and symbolic reasoning, heavily rely on hippocampal explicit memory and cannot arise solely from implicit statistical learning. Drawing on findings from neuroscience, I advance this perspective and complement it with computational requirements for artificial explicit memory systems, hoping to foster further research and lay the groundwork for explicit memory integration.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

On Approximating the Dynamic Response of Synchronous Generators via Operator Learning: A Step Towards Building Deep Operator-based Power Grid Simulators

arXiv:2301.12538v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper develops an Operator Learning framework for approximating the dynamic response of synchronous generators. The framework can be used to (i) build a neural network-based generator model that interacts with a power grid simulator or (ii) shadow the true generator's transient response. First, we develop a data-driven Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) to approximate the infinite-dimensional solution operator of the generators. Then, we design a numerical scheme based on DeepONet that simulates the generator's response over a given time horizon. The proposed scheme recursively employs the trained DeepONet to simulate the response for a given multi-dimensional input that describes the interaction between the generator and the power grid. In addition, we design a residual DeepONet numerical scheme that can incorporate information from existing mathematical models. We accompany this residual DeepONet scheme with an estimate for the prediction's cumulative error. Finally, we build a data aggregation (DAgger) strategy that allows fine-tuning of DeepONets using aggregated training data that the DeepONets will likely encounter during interactive simulations with other grid components. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that the proposed frameworks can effectively approximate the transient model of a synchronous generator.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Locally Gentle State Certification for High Dimensional Quantum Systems

arXiv:2602.04550v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Standard approaches to quantum statistical inference rely on measurements that induce a collapse of the wave function, effectively consuming the quantum state to extract information. In this work, we investigate the fundamental limits of locally-gentle quantum state certification, where the learning algorithm is constrained to perturb the state by at most $\alpha$ in trace norm, thereby allowing for the reuse of samples. We analyze the hypothesis testing problem of distinguishing whether an unknown state $\rho$ is equal to a reference $\rho_0$ or $\epsilon$-far from it. We derive the minimax sample complexity for this problem, quantifying the information-theoretic price of non-destructive measurements. Specifically, by constructing explicit measurement operators, we show that the constraint of $\alpha$-gentleness imposes a sample size penalty of $\frac{d}{\alpha^2}$, yielding a total sample complexity of $n = \Theta(\frac{d^3}{\epsilon^2 \alpha^2})$. Our results clarify the trade-off between information extraction and state disturbance, and highlight deep connections between physical measurement constraints and privacy mechanisms in quantum learning. Crucially, we find that the sample size penalty incurred by enforcing $\alpha$-gentleness scales linearly with the Hilbert-space dimension $d$ rather than the number of parameters $d^2-1$ typical for high-dimensional private estimation.

21.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Daily briefing: Ancient ground squirrels ate like ‘zombies of the Pleistocene’

作者:

Evidence from fossilized poo reveals the diverse diet of ancient ground squirrels. Plus, the science behind the peptide craze and our innate tendency to wander anticlockwise. Evidence from fossilized poo reveals the diverse diet of ancient ground squirrels. Plus, the science behind the peptide craze and our innate tendency to wander anticlockwise.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Can Machine Learning Forecast Rice Yields in Data-Constrained Settings? Satellite Climate Data, National Crop Statistics, and Lessons from Sierra Leone

arXiv:2606.13959v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sierra Leone's agriculture operates with almost no data-driven decision support, and no published machine learning study has examined the country's crop yields. We ask whether rice yield can be forecast from data Sierra Leone currently has. Using 25 years of FAOSTAT production data (2000-2024) for nine major crops, we train XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest under a strict anti-leakage protocol with expanding-window walk-forward evaluation across seven held-out years, benchmarked against naive persistence. No model trained on crop statistics alone outperforms persistence. Augmenting with free satellite climate data (CHIRPS rainfall, NASA POWER temperature) reverses this result: a climate-only XGBoost reduces forecast error by one third (RMSE 284 vs 428 kg/ha), a gain that holds for a linear model and is robust to excluding the anomalous 2018 season. Early-season (May-June) rainfall is the dominant predictor, implying seasonal yield risk is observable months before harvest. No model anticipated the 2018 collapse, whose origins were institutional rather than climatic. We translate the findings into policy recommendations for Sierra Leone's Feed Salone Strategy, with a fully open-source pipeline.

23.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-05

StPedf: Cell trajectory inference of spatial transcriptomics via spatial proximity embedding and spatial density-adaptive fusion

作者:

by Yuan Zhang, Ziyan Sun, Zhixin Shi, Mengdi Nan, Yuhan Fu, Qing Ren, Jie Gao Spatial transcriptomics is transforming our multidimensional understanding of cellular spatial organization and its functional mechanisms in processes such as development and disease by systematically resolving the spatial heterogeneity of gene expression within tissues. To delve deeper into the dynamic processes underlying spatial expression patterns, spatial trajectory inference integrates genetic and spatial information to reconstruct the spatial developmental trajectories of cells within tissues. This approach reveals the patterns of differentiation and dynamic changes as cellular states evolve continuously along spatial axes. However, existing methods often struggle to uniformly model the complex, nonlinear interactions between high-dimensional gene expression and spatial coordinates. Here, we introduce StPedf, whose core lies in employing a neural network with a masking mechanism to capture complex nonlinear interactions between high-dimensional genes and spatial positions. It further leverages spatial proximity information as a guiding cue, dynamically and adaptively adjusting the embedding of gene and spatial information and the weighting of spatial proximity information based on spatial density. This enables trajectory inference guided by spatial information. This enables optimal transport to derive intercellular transition matrices, reconstruct cellular differentiation trajectories, and construct pseudo-spatiotemporal maps. StPedf demonstrates superior performance over existing methods on five structurally distinct simulated datasets. Using StPedf, we successfully mapped distinct lineages in the spatial trajectories of telencephalon regeneration in the Ambystoma mexicanum, multiple malignant lineages expanding within primary tumors, and developmental spatial trajectories and pseudo-spatiotemporal maps in human dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). StPedf significantly enhances the accuracy and interpretability of spatial trajectory inference, providing critical technical support for revealing the dynamic patterns of cellular fate transitions within tissue microenvironments.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

InfoNCE Induces Gaussian Distribution

arXiv:2602.24012v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Contrastive learning has become a cornerstone of modern representation learning, allowing training with massive unlabeled data for both task-specific and general (foundation) models. A prototypical loss in contrastive training is InfoNCE and its variants. In this work, we show that the InfoNCE objective induces Gaussian structure in representations that emerge from contrastive training. We establish this result in two complementary regimes. First, we show that under certain alignment and concentration assumptions, projections of the high-dimensional representation asymptotically approach a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Next, under less strict assumptions, we show that adding a small asymptotically vanishing regularization term that promotes low feature norm and high feature entropy leads to similar asymptotic results. We support our analysis with experiments on synthetic and CIFAR-10 datasets across multiple encoder architectures and sizes, demonstrating consistent Gaussian behavior. This perspective provides a principled explanation for commonly observed Gaussianity in contrastive representations. The resulting Gaussian model enables principled analytical treatment of learned representations and is expected to support a wide range of applications in contrastive learning.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

OmniSapiens: A Foundation Model for Social Behavior Processing via Heterogeneity-Aware Relative Policy Optimization

arXiv:2602.10635v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Socially intelligent AI systems must reason across diverse human behavioral tasks and generalize to new social contexts. However, behavioral data is inherently heterogeneous, comprising diverse modalities and prediction targets that produce uneven training signals across samples, creating imbalanced learning dynamics that challenge existing AI models. To address this, we develop Omnisapiens-7B 2.0, a foundation model for social behavior processing that explicitly addresses learning from heterogeneous behavioral data. This is enabled through Heterogeneity-Aware Relative Policy Optimization, a new RL method that rebalances learning signals across samples by approximating each sample's contribution to the policy update and using these estimates to drive geometrically centered, inertially smoothed advantage modulation for stable training. Omnisapiens-7B 2.0 achieves the best and most consistent performance across 10 behavioral tasks, while also attaining the best performance on all five held-out benchmarks, with gains of up to +12.02% and +9.37% respectively. Furthermore, it demonstrates more consistent and interpretable reasoning traces, supporting reliable real-world behavioral applications. Our model is available at https://github.com/MIT-MI/human_behavior_atlas.