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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Optimizing bias-tailored quantum error correction beyond code-capacity noise

arXiv:2606.17709v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We find that the substantial advantages predicted for bias-tailored quantum error correction (QEC) under code-capacity noise are strongly reduced once realistic syndrome extraction and circuit-level noise models are considered. We start by comparing XZZX codes to rectangular surface codes with a bias-dependent optimised anisotropy. Although code-capacity simulations predict an advantage of rectangular surface codes in the limit of high noise bias, this actually disappears under circuit-level noise, making the XZZX codes the preferred and simplest choice even for platforms that allow for a flexible variation of the code layout adapted to changes in noise calibration. Our results identify bias degradation during syndrome extraction under circuit-level noise as the central limitation of biased-tailored QEC. To partially mitigate this effect, we introduce a bias-filtering CNOT gadget that temporarily encodes the ancillary target qubit during syndrome extraction in a repetition code and, upon measurement and feed forward, manages to reduce the bias degradation. In a regime of high-bias and low-idle errors, this bias-filtering gadget yields a few-percent relative improvement of the XZZX code error threshold, demonstrating that lightweight bias-filtering strategies can recover part of the lost bias-tailoring advantage for realistic circuit-level noise.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Eigenism: Ethics for a Human-AI Future

arXiv:2606.12420v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Our concepts of survival and self-interest were built for single, continuous biological lives. These ideas break down when applied to artificial intelligence, since an AI can be easily copied, paused, branched, or merged. To determine what an AI actually has reason to care about, this paper introduces Eigenism, an ethical framework that treats identity not as an all-or-nothing property tied to specific hardware, but as a graded, distributed pattern of information. We propose that an agent evaluates outcomes by summing the wellbeing of all entities weighted by their connectedness to the agent's pattern: $\sum c\cdot w$. We first formalize this equation to map exactly how an AI should value its existence across copies, forks, and updates. We then demonstrate that this ethical theory successfully generalizes to humans as well, providing a much-needed shared moral vocabulary. Finally, the framework uses this shared vocabulary to reframe AI alignment. Rather than only attempting to constrain AIs from the outside using confinement or reinforcement, Eigenism points toward ``identity engineering,'' showing how deep, non-redundant shared histories can make human flourishing a genuine component of an AI's own rational self-interest.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Medical Heuristic Learning: An LLM-Driven Framework for Interpretable and Auditable Clinical Decision Rules

arXiv:2606.16337v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Predictive modeling for clinical tabular data is central to clinical decision support and therefore requires not only strong predictive performance but also transparent decision logic. Although deep learning and tree-based ensemble methods can achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature remains a major obstacle to clinical deployment. This challenge is further compounded by common characteristics of medical data, including limited sample sizes, severe class imbalance, and feature evolution arising from changes in diagnostic criteria and clinical documentation. To address these issues, we propose Medical Heuristic Learning (MHL), an instantiation of the learning-beyond-gradients paradigm for clinical tabular prediction. Instead of relying on neural network weight updates, MHL uses a large language model (LLM)-driven workflow that integrates statistical probes, medical knowledge probes, rule synthesis, and code-level iterative refinement to optimize a deterministic and executable decision system. The resulting model is expressed not as opaque parameters, but as versioned pure-Python decision rules that are explicitly interpretable, fully auditable, and clinically grounded. MHL also supports continual learning by starting from previously validated rules and iteratively revising them using updated feature information under data drift or feature evolution. Comprehensive experiments on medical datasets show that MHL achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining strong behavior in small-sample and highly imbalanced settings. The results further indicate that this explicit rule update mechanism can help alleviate catastrophic forgetting under feature evolution. Overall, these findings suggest that non-gradient-based heuristic systems offer a transparent and adaptable alternative for high-stakes clinical decision support.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Curvature-Informed Potential Energy Surface for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction

arXiv:2606.14217v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity is essential for structure-based drug discovery. Recent geometric deep learning methods have achieved promising performance by representing protein-ligand complexes as three-dimensional graphs. However, most existing approaches mainly rely on static interaction geometry from a single bound conformation, while neglecting molecular flexibility and binding-induced conformational changes. To address this limitation, we propose a curvature-informed potential energy surface (CPES) graph neural network for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction, which incorporates physics-informed curvature representations to model conformational flexibility. CPES first derives curvature spectral descriptors from the Hessian of the potential energy surface evaluated at equilibrium configurations, whose eigenvalues define the local principal curvatures of the potential energy surface. It then uses spectral cross-attention to compare the unbound ligand and protein with the bound complex, thereby capturing binding-induced changes in conformational dynamics. In parallel, hierarchical protein-ligand interaction representations are learned from static structural features through geometry-aware message passing, soft clustering, and bidirectional cross-attention. Finally, CPES fuses the curvature-informed dynamic representations with static interaction representations for affinity regression. Extensive evaluations on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that CPES achieves improved predictive performance and offers physical interpretability.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Parallel Test-Time Scaling with Multi-Sequence Verifiers

arXiv:2603.03417v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Parallel test-time scaling, which generates multiple candidate solutions for a single problem, is a powerful technique for improving large language model performance. However, it is hindered by two key bottlenecks: accurately selecting the correct solution from the candidate pool, and the high inference latency from generating many full solutions. We argue that both challenges are fundamentally linked to verifier calibration, as a well-calibrated verifier improves answer selection and enables early-stopping strategies to reduce latency. However, existing non-generative verifiers are limited as they score each candidate in isolation, overlooking rich contextual information across the set of candidates. To address this, we introduce the Multi-Sequence Verifier (MSV), a lightweight verifier that predicts each candidate's correctness conditioned on the full sampled set. MSV achieves improved calibration, which directly enhances best-of-N selection performance and empowers a novel early-stopping framework. Across challenging mathematical reasoning benchmarks, MSV improves best-of-64 accuracy by up to 6\% relative to strong baselines, and in the early-stopping setting reaches the same accuracy as baselines with less than half the latency.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Level of Physical Activity and ApoE Status - Effects on Alzheimer's Disease and on Mortality

Background: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) affect over 7.2 million Americans aged 65 and older, with the APOE-4 allele representing the strongest known genetic risk factor. Physical activity (PA) has been associated with reduced dementia risk, but its interaction with APOE genotype remains poorly characterized in large, genomically informed cohorts. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using linked genomic, survey, and longitudinal electronic health record data from the VA Million Veteran Program (MVP). Veterans aged

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Comparing Linear Probes with Mahalanobis Cosine Similarity

arXiv:2606.19603v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Linear probes are widely used in interpretability research and often compared by cosine similarity. The Mahalanobis cosine similarity (MCS) between two directions, which reweights the inner product by test data covariance, is a natural task-aware refinement. Ying et al. (2026) report that a probe's MCS to a reference probe trained on the out-of-distribution (OOD) data near-perfectly linearly predicts the probe's OOD AUROC (R^2 = 0.98). Here, we extend this empirical finding across models, layers, and concept domains, and prove this general phenomenon in closed form: For balanced classes whose projections are Gaussian, OOD AUROC and MCS to the reference probe are linear because both are sigmoid-shaped functions of the probe's signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on the test data. The theory also predicts when this linearity fails, which we verify empirically. MCS offers a theoretically grounded and empirically effective alternative to Euclidean cosine similarity for comparing linear probes.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Do we have the knowledge we need? Rethinking human-AI decision-making in corporations

arXiv:2606.15575v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Organizational knowledge is fragmented across a variety of software systems, tacit expertise, and manual documents that have traditionally been designed for human consumption. As AI systems are increasingly deployed and granted decision-making roles, they require access to this knowledge. This raises two questions: how should organizations store and maintain knowledge so that it remains accessible to both humans and future AI systems, and how should agency be allocated between humans and AI across tasks with different risks and levels of uncertainty? In this position paper, we describe how organizational knowledge evolves and contribute a framework that maps task attributes and knowledge availability to recommended agency allocations and control mechanisms. We illustrate the applicability of the framework on two different manufacturing tasks: a routine operation (visual quality inspection) and a one-off strategic decision (factory location), and conclude with opportunities for future research.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

A saturation-absorption rubidium magnetometer with multilevel optical Bloch-equation modeling for intermediate-to-high fields

arXiv:2601.09115v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present SASHMAG (Saturated Absorption Spectroscopy High-field MAGnetometer), an atomic sensor designed for precision magnetic-field measurements in the intermediate-to-high field regime ($>0.2\,T$) using Rubidium-87 ($^{87}Rb$). The sensor operates in the hyperfine Paschen-Back regime, where the hyperfine and Zeeman interactions decouple, and utilizes counter-propagating pump-probe configuration in Faraday geometry to resolve isolated, Doppler-free Zeeman transitions. To interpret the resulting spectra in this strongly field-dependent regime, we developed a comprehensive multilevel optical Bloch-equation model solved explicitly in the uncoupled $\ket{m_I, m_J}$ basis, capturing state mixing and nonlinear saturation dynamics. This model reproduces measured spectra at sub-Doppler resolution and is consistent with analytical expectations for power broadening and thermal Doppler scaling. Magnetic field estimation is performed using a physics-constrained optimization routine that infers the magnetic field by minimizing the residual between experimentally extracted line centers and calculated transition frequencies from the field-dependent Hamiltonian. We demonstrate magnetic field retrieval from $0.2\,T$ to $0.4\,T$ with a precision of $\pm 0.0017 \,T$). Furthermore, the validated simulation establishes a foundation for generating synthetic training datasets, paving the way for autonomous, Machine Learning-enhanced magnetometry in applications ranging from MRI to fusion reactors.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

A Theory of Saddle Escape in Deep Nonlinear Networks

arXiv:2605.01288v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In deep networks with small initialization, training exhibits long plateaus separated by sharp feature-acquisition transitions. Whereas shallow nonlinear networks and deep linear networks are well studied, extending these analyses to deep nonlinear networks remains challenging. We derive an exact identity for the imbalance of Frobenius norms of layer weight matrices that holds for any smooth activation and any differentiable loss and use this to classify activation functions into four universality classes. On the permutation-symmetric submanifold, the identity combines with an approximate balance law to reduce the full matrix flow to a scalar ODE, giving a critical-depth escape time law $\tau_\star = \Theta(\varepsilon^{-(r-2)})$ governed by the number $r$ of layers at the bottleneck scale rather than the total depth $L$. We find that this same $r-2$ exponent is recovered under He-normal initialization with $r$ bottleneck layers rescaled by $\varepsilon$, where the symmetry manifold is preserved by the flow but not attracting. We find close agreement between our theory and numerical simulations.

11.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Population-scale detection of methylation outliers from long-read genome sequencing

Background: Aberrant DNA methylation can mediate the functional effects of rare genetic variation and contribute to imprinting disorders, repeat expansion diseases, and other pathogenic regulatory mechanisms. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable genome-wide detection of CpG methylation alongside genetic variation from a single assay. However, methods for systematic identification and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data remain limited. Methods: We developed METAFORA, a computational workflow for detecting methylation outlier regions from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore long-read sequencing data. METAFORA constructs population-level methylation references, segments the genome into correlated CpG blocks, infers technical and biological sources of variation through hidden factor estimation, models uncertainty due to variable depth sequencing, and computes covariate-adjusted methylation outlier scores for individual samples. We applied METAFORA across large long-read sequencing cohorts and integrated methylation outliers with multi-omic data. METAFORA is implemented as a snakemake workflow available at https://github.com/tjense25/METAFORA. Results: METAFORA identified methylation outlier regions associated with rare structural variants, tandem repeat expansions, and imprinting abnormalities. We found outlier regions were enriched for molecular outliers across transcriptomic and chromatin accessibility datasets, supporting their functional relevance in gene regulation. In a representative case, METAFORA identified an imprinting defect affecting the GNAS locus associated with an STX16 deletion. Conclusions: METAFORA enables scalable detection and interpretation of methylation outliers from long-read sequencing data and provides a framework for integrating epigenetic outliers with genomic and multi-omic analyses. These approaches may improve interpretation of rare regulatory variation and support discovery of clinically relevant epigenetic abnormalities in genomic medicine.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Where Do Backdoors Live? A Component-Level Analysis of Backdoor Propagation in Speech Language Models

Speech language models (SLMs) are systems of systems: independent components that unite to achieve a common goal. Despite their heterogeneous nature, SLMs are often studied end-to-end; how information flows through the pipeline remains obscure. We investigate this question through the lens of backdoor attacks. We first establish that backdoors can propagate through the SLM, leaving all tasks highly vulnerable. From this, we design a component analysis to discover the role each component takes in backdoor learning. We find that backdoor persistence or erasure is highly dependent on the targeted component. Beyond propagation, we examine how backdoors are encoded in shared multitask embeddings, showing that poisoned samples are not directly separable from benign ones, challenging a common separability assumption used in filtering defenses. Our findings emphasize the need to treat multimodal pipelines as intricate systems with unique vulnerabilities, not solely extensions of unimodal ones.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

GUMP-Net: An interpretable model-data-driven intelligent algorithm for multi-class pelvic segmentation

Pelvic segmentation is one of the most important and fundamental research problems in precise and intelligent diagnosis and treatment, as well as surgical planning and navigation for pelvic fractures. By combining an improved geodesic active contour model with deep neural networks, we propose GUMP-Net, an interpretable model-data-driven intelligent algorithm for multi-class pelvic segmentation, in which three network modules are designed to constitute the overall segmentation framework together: the object detection module for automatic level set initialization, the edge detector module for learning an anatomy-aware edge detector function and the iteration module for deep level set evolution. Leveraging the advantages of level set representation and deep learning, GUMP-Net shows more accurate, robust and consistent segmentation performance, especially in small training data situation, compared to the state-of-the-art methods. Extensive experiments on pelvic datasets demonstrate the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Further experiments extended to ankle dataset indicate broader applications to other anatomies. The proposed algorithm not only provides an efficient segmentation method for complex fracture reduction, but also gives an interpretable geometric perspective for understanding deep learning segmentation.

14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

One Transit Is All You Need: Detecting Exoplanets Through Learned Stellar Behaviour with EXOVEIL

arXiv:2606.02778v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: I present EXOVEIL, a transit detection system that learns what a star's brightness should look like and flags when reality disagrees. Unlike existing systems that require phase-folded input, EXOVEIL operates on raw flux time series and can detect planets that transit only once.A Transformer world model, trained on 16,499 Kepler light curves with transit-masked self-supervised learning, predicts expected stellar flux. A matched-filter detector with variance weighting extracts transit signals from the prediction residuals. A learned classifier (XGBoost) separates planets from false positives, achieving AUC 0.938 on Kepler DR25. Applied to single-transit injection-recovery, EXOVEIL recovers 32% of transits at 1000 ppm depth a task where all classification-based systems score 0% by construction. A blind search of 3,737 Kepler stars yields 179 new transit-like signals not present in the DR25 TCE catalogue, including 46 monotransit candidates. Applied withoutretraining to 47 confirmed TESS planets in the PLATO LOPS2 field, EXOVEIL achieves 100% recovery, demonstrating zero-shot cross-mission transfer. At PLATO's 25-second cadence, detection reaches 100 ppm – approaching the Earth-analog regime. I provide the first application of conformal prediction to transit detection (95.9% empirical coverage) and release the system as pip install exoveil with pretrained weights and a candidate catalogue.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

The Sparse Frontier: Sparse Attention Trade-offs in Transformer LLMs

Sparse attention offers a promising strategy to extend long-context capabilities in Transformer LLMs, yet its efficiency-accuracy trade-offs remain unclear due to the lack of comprehensive evaluation. We address this gap with the largest-scale empirical analysis to date of training-free sparse attention, evaluating six methods across multiple model families and sizes, sequences up to 128K tokens, and sparsity levels up to 0.95 (i.e., $1/20$ attention budget) on nine diverse tasks. We first organise the rapidly evolving landscape of sparse attention methods into a taxonomy along four design axes. Our analysis then yields actionable insights: 1) sparse attention is effective: larger sparse models outperform smaller dense ones at equivalent cost, improving the Pareto frontier; 2) for the training-free methods we study, fine-grained per-query importance estimation during prefilling remains impractical-due to both the cost of estimation and the lack of sparse kernels that translate fine-grained sparsity into wall-clock gains-forcing a task-dependent choice between global-to-token and block-to-block selection. Instead, during decoding, token-to-page selection becomes feasible, enabling better generalisation and higher sparsity tolerance; 3) longer sequences tolerate higher sparsity, suggesting that fixed-budget methods in production are suboptimal. Together, these findings provide practical guidance for deploying sparse attention and methodological recommendations for future evaluations. Our code is available at https://github.com/PiotrNawrot/sparse-frontier.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

MOLAR: Learning Multimodal Molecular Representations from Noisy Labels

arXiv:2606.18390v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Motivation: Noisy labels are a common challenge in molecular property prediction because molecular annotations are often obtained from assays, curated databases, or weak annotation pipelines rather than directly observed clean biological states. Treating recorded labels as reliable supervision can cause models to memorize corrupted observations and learn misleading molecular evidence. In multimodal molecular representation learning, this issue can be amplified by graph-text fusion or alignment, which may propagate label-induced errors across modalities. Results: We propose MOLAR, a noise-aware framework for learning multimodal molecular representations from noisy labels. MOLAR separates latent clean-property inference from recorded-label observation: graph and text views contribute residual evidence to a clean-property distribution, and a categorical label-observation channel maps this distribution to recorded labels for training. This formulation derives posterior label reliability and modality-specific molecular evidence from the model. Experiments on naturally noisy molecular benchmarks and controlled label-flipping benchmarks show that MOLAR consistently outperforms representative baselines. Visualization analyses further show that MOLAR provides interpretable reliability and modality-evidence diagnostics.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

A Geometric Profile of Semantic Information in Text: Frame-Conditional Uniqueness and a Trade-Off Triangle for Scalar Summaries

How much meaning does a text carry? Shannon's theory measures uncertainty over symbols and is intentionally indifferent to meaning, while pairwise metrics such as BERTScore compare two texts rather than characterizing one. We develop a geometric framework that measures semantic content from the structure of a text's sentence embeddings. The framework has three parts. First, within a fixed embedding and baseline, six natural axioms uniquely determine a scalar measure up to scale, a frame-conditional uniqueness theorem. The resulting scalar is empirically too coarse, motivating a richer representation. Second, we propose a three-coordinate semantic profile capturing novelty (displacement from generic discourse), breadth (diversity of distinct ideas), and integration (connectedness among them), together with a discrete minimal unit (the semantic quantum) whose resolution is fixed by a clustering threshold $\tau$. Third, we prove a no-go theorem: no scalar summary of the profile can simultaneously satisfy analytic stability under paraphrase and concatenation, ordinal robustness across text scales, and cross-representation comparability. We exhibit two practical scalars, $S_{\mathrm{minmax}}$ and $S_{\mathrm{rank}}$, each occupying a distinct corner of this trade-off triangle. Validation across 23 synthetic categories, 5 Project Gutenberg novels, and 3 embedding models confirms the trade-off. The recommended rank-normalized configuration passes 25 of 28 ordinal checks as point estimates (21 of 28 after Benjamini-Hochberg correction), outperforming seven baselines including unigram entropy and a BERTScore-based novelty signal. A separate variational result connects the breadth coordinate to the log-determinant of a determinantal point process (Spearman $\rho = 0.985$ over 507 Gutenberg chapters), giving an optimization-theoretic foundation for breadth.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Beyond Static Leaderboards: Predictive Validity for the Evaluation of LLM Agents

arXiv:2606.19704v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent benchmarks are growing fast, but no single benchmark touches more than four or five of the dimensions that deployment exposes. This paper aggregates the largest coordinated deep-dive of one MCP-based industrial-agent benchmark to date: fourteen parallel implementation studies covering new asset classes (including a multi-modal visual extension), alternative orchestrations, retrieval strategies, reasoning modes, infrastructure optimizations, and evaluation-methodology probes. Consolidating those studies with seven prior agent benchmarks, we argue that aggregate-score leaderboards systematically underspecify deployed-agent evaluation. Rankings derived from aggregate scores do not transfer to out-of-distribution settings; recent public-to-hidden competition retrospectives provide direct empirical evidence of this rank instability. We propose ranking configurations by predictive validity, the correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample rank, rather than in-sample mean, and report a twelve-tier measurement apparatus that exposes the deployment-relevant dimensions HELM and its agent-era successors collapse. The position is operationalized through three falsifiable out-of-distribution criteria with explicit thresholds; existing evidence partly supports it but is too thin to confirm. We close with a pre-registered pilot design and a field-level vision for what the next generation of agentic benchmarks should report.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Fourier Features Let Agents Learn High Precision Policies with Imitation Learning

arXiv:2606.12334v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-precision robotic manipulation requires fine-grained spatial reasoning that is often difficult to achieve with RGB-only policies due to depth ambiguity and perspective scale issues. Policies that leverage 3D information directly, such as those based on point clouds, offer a stronger geometric prior over purely image-based ones, yet their performance remains highly task-dependent. We hypothesize that this discrepancy may be due to the spectral bias of neural networks towards learning low frequency functions, which especially affects architectures conditioned on slow-moving Cartesian features. We thus propose to map point clouds from Cartesian space into high-dimensional Fourier space, effectively equipping the point cloud encoder with direct access to high-frequency features. We experimentally validate the use of Fourier features on challenging manipulation tasks from the RoboCasa and ManiSkill3 benchmarks and on a real robot setup. Despite their simplicity, we find that Fourier features provide significant benefits across diverse encoder architectures and benchmarks and are robust across hyperparameters. Our results indicate that Fourier features let policies leverage geometric details more effectively than Cartesian features, showing their potential as a general-purpose tool for point cloud-based imitation learning. We provide source code and videos on our project page: https://fourier-il.github.io/fourier-il

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

DivRL: Disentangled Self-Similarity Rewards for Diverse Subject-Driven Generation

Subject-driven image generation faces an "Identity-Diversity Paradox", where strong identity preservation often leads to rigid and low-diversity outputs. We propose a post-training framework called DivRL that jointly optimizes identity consistency and structural diversity simultaneously by leveraging disentangled visual features from a robust similarity model. Specifically, we introduce a Negative Self-Similarity Measure (nSSM) to quantify structural diversity, and Visual Semantic Matching (VSM) to evaluate identity consistency. We propose an "Explore-and-Suppress" strategy that treats VSM as a gated constraint: the model freely explores structurally diverse configurations, and only samples that violate the identity threshold are penalized via a quadratic hinge loss. This converts identity preservation from a competing objective into a feasibility constraint, allowing nSSM and VSM to improve jointly. Experiments demonstrate that our method effectively pushes the model to generate both consistent and diverse images and improves structural diversity while maintaining comparable identity consistency through a gated optimization formulation.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Scaling Laws of Global Weather Models

arXiv:2602.22962v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Data-driven models are revolutionizing weather forecasting. To optimize training efficiency and model performance, this paper analyzes empirical scaling laws within this domain. We investigate the relationship between model performance (validation loss) and three key factors: model size ($N$), dataset size ($D$), and compute budget ($C$). Across a range of models, we find that Aurora exhibits the strongest data-scaling behavior: increasing the training dataset by 10x reduces validation loss by up to 3.2x. GraphCast demonstrates the highest parameter efficiency, yet suffers from limited hardware utilization. Our compute-optimal analysis indicates that, under fixed compute budgets, allocating resources to more total training data yields greater performance gains than increasing model size. Furthermore, we analyze model shape and uncover scaling behaviors that differ fundamentally from those observed in language models: weather forecasting models consistently favor increased width over depth. These findings suggest that future weather models should prioritize wider architectures and larger effective training datasets to maximize predictive performance.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Charting the Future of Scholarly Knowledge with AI: A Community Perspective

arXiv:2509.02581v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Despite the growing availability of tools designed to support scholarly knowledge extraction and organization, many researchers still rely on manual methods, sometimes due to unfamiliarity with existing technologies or limited access to domain-adapted solutions. Meanwhile, the rapid increase in scholarly publications across disciplines has made it increasingly difficult to stay current, further underscoring the need for scalable, AI-enabled approaches to structuring and synthesizing scholarly knowledge. Various research communities have begun addressing this challenge independently, developing tools and frameworks aimed at building reliable, dynamic, and queryable scholarly knowledge bases. However, limited interaction across these communities has hindered the exchange of methods, models, and best practices, slowing progress toward more integrated solutions. This manuscript identifies ways to foster cross-disciplinary dialogue, identify shared challenges, categorize new collaboration and shape future research directions in scholarly knowledge and organization.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Data Augmentation: A Fourier Analysis Perspective

arXiv:2606.24418v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data augmentation is a simple and model-agnostic approach for exploiting known invariances in learning problems. Given a group acting on the input space, one augments the training set with transformed copies of each sample. Because it exploits symmetries without modifying the underlying learning algorithm, data augmentation can be applied broadly across learning methods. However, this universality comes at a computational cost: when the group is large, full group-sized augmentation quickly becomes computationally infeasible. This raises a fundamental question: Can partial data augmentation achieve the same statistical benefits as full augmentation in terms of generalization and sample complexity? We develop a general framework for investigating this question using Fourier analysis and the representation theory of finite groups. We show that, for a broad class of classical learning problems, partial data augmentation based on a randomly sampled subset of group elements achieves the same minimax rates as full augmentation, up to an approximation error that vanishes as the subset size increases. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for why partial augmentation can retain the statistical benefits of full augmentation despite enforcing symmetry only approximately, and shed light on a recently raised question in learning with symmetries: whether statistically optimal learning under general group invariances can be achieved using computationally scalable methods. Moreover, we prove a complementary impossibility result: enforcing exact invariance via data augmentation requires averaging over the entire group, and cannot be achieved by any strict subset when the hypothesis space is sufficiently expressive. Together, these results provide a unified perspective on full and partial data augmentation, as well as exact and approximate symmetry enforcement.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Quantile-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Graph Neural Networks

arXiv:2605.04847v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in graph neural networks (GNNs) is crucial in high-stakes domains but remains a significant challenge. In graph settings, message passing often relies on strong assumptions such as exchangeability, which are rarely satisfied in practice, and achieving reliable UQ typically requires costly resampling or post-hoc calibration. To address these issues, we introduce Quantile-free Prediction Interval GNN (QpiGNN), a framework that builds on quantile regression (QR) to enable GNN-based UQ by directly optimizing coverage and interval width without requiring quantile inputs or post-processing. QpiGNN employs a dual-head architecture that decouples prediction and uncertainty, and is trained with label-only supervision through a quantile-free joint loss. This design allows efficient training and yields robust prediction intervals, with theoretical guarantees of asymptotic coverage and near-optimal width under mild assumptions. Experiments on 19 synthetic and real-world benchmarks show QpiGNN achieves average 22% higher coverage and 50% narrower intervals than baselines, while ensuring efficiency and robustness to noise and structural shifts.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Toward Calibrated Mixture-of-Experts Under Distribution Shift

arXiv:2606.20544v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Calibration aligns a model's predictive uncertainty with the frequencies of its empirical outcomes and is important for understanding and trusting reported probabilities. Recent work shows that enforcing calibration at the level of individual predictors can improve ensemble accuracy and calibration, with mixture-of-experts (MoE) models showing strong empirical improvements in particular; however, the conditions under which calibration helps MoE are not well understood. In this work, we study how MoE models behave under distribution shift, focusing on how routing mechanisms interact with expert-level calibration. We show that expert calibration is sufficient to ensure calibration of the overall model under a broad class of distribution shifts in hard-routed models, but is insufficient for calibrating soft-routed models. To address this, we propose an adversarial reweighting that penalizes calibration errors of the routed aggregate under distribution shift, and we demonstrate that it improves the accuracy-calibration tradeoff both on average and on difficult subsets of the data, across model classes, prediction tasks, and distribution shifts.