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01.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Higher-Order Adiabatic Elimination in Atom-Cavity Systems and Its Impact on Spin-Squeezing Generation

arXiv:2506.22383v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Spin-squeezed states are metrologically useful quantum states where entanglement allows for enhanced sensing with respect to the standard quantum limit. Key challenges include the efficient preparation of spin-squeezed states and the scalability of estimation precision with the number $N$ of probes. Recently, in the context of the generation of spin-squeezed states via coupling of three-level atoms to an optical cavity, it was shown that increasing the atom-cavity coupling can be detrimental to spin squeezing generation, an effect that is not captured by the standard second-order adiabatic cavity removal approximation. We describe adiabatic elimination techniques to derive an effective Lindblad master equation up to third order for the atomic degrees of freedom. Numerical simulations show that the spin squeezing scalability loss is correctly reproduced by the reduced open system dynamics, highlighting the role of higher-order contributions. Furthermore, we conjecture an extension beyond leading order of the adiabatic elimination technique to the case of conditional dynamics under quantum non-demolition continuous measurement and fast cavity loss, whose reliability is again confirmed by numerical simulation of the dynamics and the corresponding behavior of spin squeezing as a function of $N$.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

Agentic Collaborative Cognition for Zero-Shot 3D Understanding

Recent advancements have explored agentic zero-shot 3D understanding by reformulating it as video keyframe understanding with Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). However, existing methods face an intrinsic bottleneck due to the finite observation perspectives inherent in videos and the implicit perception of 3D scenes. In this paper, we propose a collaborative multi-agent framework that assigns a Planning Agent to handle high-level viewpoint planning and supplement novel perspectives, and a Perception Agent to explicitly summarize the 3D scene into a structured holistic cognitive map. Specifically, Planning Agent first analyzes this cognitive map to determine query-relevant viewpoints and supplements missing critical perspectives to ensure comprehensive observation. Subsequently, Perception Agent documents object-level attributes from these views by assigning consistent instance identifiers across viewpoints, thereby integrating fragmented observations into the holistic cognitive map. In parallel, it provides feedback to filter out mismatched candidate objects and guide subsequent viewpoint planning. Through this closed-loop iterative process, two agents collaboratively figure out candidates until Perception Agent determines that sufficient information has been captured to complete the task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on 6 benchmarks, with improvements of 11.1\% Acc@0.5 on ScanRefer, 14.6 BLEU-1 on 3D-assisted dialog, and 2.1 EM on SQA3D.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Global Convergence of Gradient Descent for Score Matching in Gaussian Mixtures via Reverse Fisher Divergence

arXiv:2606.19876v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The score matching problem is a central training objective in modern generative modeling, diffusion models, fitting unnormalized statistical models, and inverse problems. A standard approach is to minimize the forward Fisher divergence, where the expectation is taken with respect to the teacher distribution. However, recent results show that even in simple Gaussian mixture model settings, this objective can lead to undesirable and initialization-dependent convergence behavior. In this paper, we study an alternative objective: the reverse Fisher divergence, where the expectation is taken with respect to the student distribution. We analyze gradient descent (GD) for fitting Gaussian mixture models and show that this change in the objective leads to significantly better optimization properties. First, when the teacher distribution is a single Gaussian and the student is a Gaussian mixture model with fixed weights and identity covariances, we prove the global convergence of GD from arbitrary initializations. Second, we extend the analysis to the case where the teacher is also a Gaussian mixture model and prove global convergence guarantees under a global random initialization scheme and a $\widetilde{\Omega}(1)$-separation assumption on the target means. In particular, with high probability, each student component converges near its closest teacher component, and we provide conditions under which the student distribution converges in total variation distance. Our proofs rely on a new Lyapunov-based analysis of the gradient descent dynamics, showing that the reverse Fisher divergence has a much more favorable optimization landscape than the forward Fisher divergence.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

An LLM-based Two-Stage Transformer Framework for Cross-Domain Bearing Fault Diagnosis with Limited Data

Bearing fault diagnosis faces critical challenges when dataset heterogeneity, operating condition variations, and limited labeled data occur simultaneously in industrial environments. Existing approaches address these issues in isolation and rely on implicit feature alignment, limiting effectiveness under concurrent challenges. This paper proposes a knowledge-guided two-stage transfer learning framework that employs a lightweight GPT-2-style Transformer with causal self-attention for hierarchical feature extraction from vibration signals, establishing explicit pathways where pre-trained encoder weights and fault prototype embeddings serve as knowledge carriers from multi-source pre-training to target adaptation. The framework addresses the dual-shift challenge through multi-source learning for generalizable representations, prototype-based knowledge modulation for target adaptation, and taxonomy-adaptive classification for seamless transfer across heterogeneous fault categories. Experimental validation on four real-world datasets demonstrates 92.61% average accuracy with only 10% labeled target data, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 17.24 percentage points, establishing a practical pathway toward cost-effective predictive maintenance in Industry 4.0 applications.

05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Stochastic dominations for FK percolation and sharp thinning thresholds for the Ising energy field

arXiv:2606.13648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At first glance, one would imagine that the energy field of the Ising model, the set of edges whose endpoints share the same spin, is stochastically monotone as a function of the coupling constants. However, this is not generally the case. In this paper, we introduce two weaker notions of stochastic domination that make this result true: $p$–weak and $p$–weak$^\dagger$ domination. Both of these notions depend on a parameter $p$ and we find the optimal values $p$ and $p^\dagger$ so that these dominations hold. One of the key ingredient to obtain some of the results is a new stochastic domination relating FK percolations with different parameters $q,\tilde{q}\geq 1$ that is of independent interest.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

TextResNet: Decoupling and Routing Optimization Signals in Compound AI Systems via Deep Residual Tuning

arXiv:2602.08306v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Textual Gradient-style optimizers (TextGrad) enable gradient-like feedback propagation through compound AI systems. However, they do not work well for deep chains. The root cause of this limitation stems from the Semantic Entanglement problem in these extended workflows. In standard textual backpropagation, feedback signals mix local critiques with upstream contexts, leading to Attribution Ambiguity. To address this challenge, we propose TextResNet, a framework that reformulates the optimization process to achieve precise signal routing via four key innovations. Firstly, in the forward pass, it enforces Additive Semantic Deltas to preserve an Identity Highway for gradient flow. Secondly, in the backward pass, it introduces Semantic Gradient Decomposition via a Semantic Projector to disentangle feedback into causally independent subspaces. Thirdly, it implements Causal Routing, which routes projected signals to their specific components. Finally, it performs Density-Aware Optimization Scheduling to leverage the disentangled signals to dynamically allocate resources to key system bottlenecks. Our results show that TextResNet not only achieves superior performance compared to TextGrad, but also exhibits remarkable stability for agentic tasks in compound AI systems where baselines collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/JeanDiable/TextResNet.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Extracting Governing Equations from Latent Dynamics via Multi-View Contrastive Learning

arXiv:2606.13260v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Identifying latent dynamical systems from noisy, high-dimensional measurements is a central problem at the intersection of representation learning, system identification, and scientific discovery. We present DYSCO, a multi-view temporal contrastive learning algorithm that jointly recovers latent trajectories and the governing dynamics from such observations, by leveraging multiple independent noisy views of the same underlying process to disentangle signal from noise. By parameterizing the dynamics in a structured functional basis, our framework further enables symbolic recovery of the governing equations within an affine gauge. We offer theoretical guarantees for strong identification up to an affine indeterminacy, extending prior identifiability results to the realistic setting of noisy nonlinear observations. Empirically, we demonstrate accurate recovery of both latent trajectories and flow fields across a diverse set of dynamical regimes (e.g., chaotic, oscillatory, and metastable) under both Gaussian and Poisson observation noise, the latter being particularly relevant for neural recordings.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

The Silent Cost of Artificial Intelligence Assistance: A Theory of Autonomy Surrender, the Recovery Mechanism, and the Restoration of Human Agency

arXiv:2606.13962v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The integration of artificial intelligence into human decision-making environments has introduced a previously undertheorized cost: the gradual surrender of human autonomy in exchange for access to information and computational assistance. Building on the Human Identity and Autonomy Gap (HIAG) framework, this paper advances a theoretical model of autonomy surrender as a measurable, cumulative process driven by cognitive bandwidth depletion. The model proposes three interacting mechanisms: the silent cost of AI assistance, in which autonomy is transferred incrementally and without awareness; the surrender threshold, beyond which reclaiming autonomous function becomes cognitively and psychologically difficult; and the recovery mechanism, which establishes the design obligation and the ethical responsibility accompanying deliberate human re-assumption of control. The paper argues that human re-entry into the decision loop is not a passive option but an active cognitive event requiring intentional bandwidth restoration. The design of AI systems must incorporate structured re-entry pathways, here termed recovery mechanisms, that preserve human agency while appropriately distributing responsibility. The model further predicts a terminal state, here termed preference inversion, in which functional dependence on AI assistance is experienced not as a deficit but as a preference, transforming the restoration of autonomy from a design problem into a cultural and political one. Implications are drawn for AI system design, governance frameworks, and human factors research.

09.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Lehner's operator norm formulas, semidefinite programming, and spiked matrix models

arXiv:2606.14687v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Lehner (1999) derived elegant formulas for the operator norm $\|\mathfrak{X}\|$ of operators of the form $\mathfrak{X} = \mathbf{A}_0 \otimes \mathfrak{1} + \sum_{i = 1}^n \mathbf{A}_i \otimes \mathfrak{m}_i$, also easily generalized to the spectral edge $\lambda_{\max}(\mathfrak{X})$, in terms of nonlinear optimization problems over positive definite matrices. Here the $\mathbf{A}_i$ are finite-dimensional Hermitian matrices, the $\mathfrak{m}_i$ are either free semicircular or free Rademacher families of operators, and $\mathfrak{1}$ is the identity operator. We first show that both of Lehner's nonlinear optimizations can be rewritten as linear semidefinite programs (SDPs), even in the Rademacher case where Lehner's optimization is not itself convex. We give the primal and dual forms of these SDPs, derive the complementary slackness relations and consequences thereof, and propose that the SDPs are more stable and accurate than the iterative numerical scheme proposed in Lehner's original work. We then apply the SDPs from the semicircular case to spiked matrix models, studied recently via Lehner's formula by Bandeira, Cipolloni, Schröder, and van Handel (2024). We give a new proof of the Baik–Ben Arous–Péché (BBP) transition they establish in models with isotropic (but possibly correlated) Gaussian noise by constructing feasible variables for the associated primal and dual SDPs. Combining our construction with a sensitivity interpretation of optimal dual variables, we study the fluctuations of leading eigenvectors of such models. We conjecture and give numerical evidence that these fluctuations are Gaussian but anisotropic and non-universal, and that their covariance may be computed in terms of the optimizer of the dual of Lehner's formula, which in turn is approximately the leading eigenmatrix of a completely positive operator associated to the covariance of the noise model.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Cortical activity during narrative discourse production in individuals with post-stroke aphasia and controls measured via functional near-infrared spectroscopy

Introduction: Aphasia is an acquired language disorder with a significant negative functional impact. Much of the research on aphasia has focused on word-level language comprehension and production. Further evaluation of discourse-level tasks, both at behavioral and neural levels, will allow for an ecologically valid understanding of the functional implications of language impairment in this population. Method: This study evaluated bilateral frontal, temporal, and parietal cortical activity during computer-based narrative production in 14 young neurotypical individuals, 17 individuals with post-stroke aphasia, and 15 age-matched neurotypical participants using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). Oxygenated hemoglobin (HbO) was measured during narrative production following short video clips and compared to HbO during counting aloud. In addition, behavioral measures quantifying in-task performance were correlated with averaged HbO values. Results: Young neurotypical individuals showed greater cortical activity in bilateral language regions for narrative production compared to counting aloud. In contrast, people with aphasia showed positive condition-related effects in the right frontal ROI and the age-matched group showed positive condition-related effects in the left frontal and right precentral ROIs. Each group showed different patterns in relationships between cortical activity and discourse performance measures. Conclusion: Overall, young participants showing more consistent condition-related effects for narrative discourse production than individuals with aphasia and age-matched controls. This study shows the potential for fNIRS to evaluate cortical activity for ecologically valid language tasks in individuals with post-stroke aphasia.

11.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

ResidualPlanner+: a scalable matrix mechanism for marginals and beyond

arXiv:2305.08175v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Noisy marginals are a common form of confidentiality protecting data release and are useful for many downstream tasks such as contingency table analysis, construction of Bayesian networks, and even synthetic data generation. Privacy mechanisms that provide unbiased noisy answers to linear queries (such as marginals) are known as matrix mechanisms. We propose ResidualPlanner and ResidualPlanner+, two highly scalable matrix mechanisms. ResidualPlanner is both optimal and scalable for answering marginal queries with Gaussian noise, while ResidualPlanner+ provides support for more general workloads, such as combinations of marginals and range queries or prefix-sum queries. ResidualPlanner can optimize for many loss functions that can be written as a convex function of marginal variances (prior work was restricted to just one predefined objective function). ResidualPlanner can optimize the accuracy of marginals in large scale settings in seconds, even when the previous state of the art (HDMM) runs out of memory. It even runs on datasets with 100 attributes in a couple of minutes. Furthermore, ResidualPlanner can efficiently compute variance/covariance values for each marginal (prior methods quickly run out of memory, even for relatively small datasets). ResidualPlanner+ provides support for more complex workloads that combine marginal and range/prefix-sum queries (e.g., a marginal on race, a range query on age, and a combined race/age tabulation that answers age range queries for each race). It even supports custom user-defined workloads on different attributes. With this added flexibility, ResidualPlanner+ is not necessarily optimal, however it is still extremely scalable and outperforms the prior state-of-the-art (HDMM) on prefix-sum queries both in terms of accuracy and speed.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

CATCH-ME if you RAG: a dataset of Contextually Annotated multi-Turn Counterspeech against Hate and Misinformation Exchanges

Online hate speech and misinformation frequently overlap, yet NLP research has mainly treated them in isolation. While LLMs represent a scalable solution for assisting humans in the generation of counterspeech for both threats, zero-shot models frequently generate repetitive and vague responses, underscoring the need for high-quality examples to steer model generation. However, existing counterspeech datasets against the overlap of hate and misinformation are scarce and limited to single-turn English dialogues, while real-life interactions span across multiple turns and languages. To bridge this gap, we introduce the first large-scale, expert-curated, multilingual dataset of dialogues tackling the intersection of hate and misinformation. To ensure factual grounding, the dialogues are also anchored in verified external knowledge (i.e., fact-checking articles and NGO reports) and include document- and chunk-level span annotations, making it directly applicable for RAG systems. Covering five languages and targeting hate directed at seven marginalized groups, this novel resource enables the training and evaluation of more persuasive, factually grounded counterspeech models.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Mining Architectural Quality Under Agentic AI Adoption: A Causal Study of Java Repositories

arXiv:2606.13298v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: AI coding tools are now used by a majority of developers, and agentic use of these tools has popularized the practice colloquially called "vibe coding". Yet causal evidence on their effect on software architecture is scarce. Prior causal work has measured code-level outcomes (complexity, static analysis warnings); whether such degradation propagates to architecture-level outcomes remains unknown. We mine 151 open-source Java repositories, 74 with detectable agentic AI adoption (identified via configuration files and Co-Authored-By commit trailers) and 77 propensity-matched controls, across a 13-month per-repository window yielding 1,811 monthly Arcan snapshots. We estimate the causal effect of adoption on architectural smell density (ASD) with a staggered difference-in-differences design and the Borusyak imputation estimator, applying a causal design recently used for code-level metrics to the architecture level. Total smell counts are essentially unchanged (+1.1%, p = 0.82) while lines of code grow +12.8% (p = 0.003); the resulting 6.7% ASD decline (p = 0.004) is therefore a denominator effect rather than an architectural improvement. Per-type estimates and robustness checks (wild cluster bootstrap, Lee bounds, stale-observation sensitivity) corroborate the pattern; pre-trends are flat (Wald p = 0.90), consistent with parallel trends. Density-normalized outcomes can mislead when treatment affects system size: raw counts and explicit decomposition are required for causal mining studies of AI tool adoption. The complete replication package, including the curated 151-repository monthly panel, is publicly available.

14.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Bioinf-Farma: supervised integration of epitope prediction and recombinant protein developability for automated vaccine candidate prioritization

Vaccine antigen discovery requires prioritizing protein candidates according to both immunogenic potential and recombinant expression feasibility. These properties are typically evaluated using separate computational tools, requiring researchers to integrate heterogeneous outputs through ad hoc workflows. Here, we present BIOINF-farma, a modular platform integrating epitope prediction and developability assessment for rational antigen selection within a unified environment. Candidates can be submitted as amino acid sequences or three-dimensional structures. When experimental structures are unavailable, BIOINF-farma automatically searches for models in AlphaFold DB or performs structure prediction using Boltz-2, ensuring a standardized structural representation for downstream analyses. Antigenicity is quantified by combining structure-based conformational epitope signals (MLCE/REBELOT-BEPPE) and sequence-based linear epitope propensity scores (BepiPred 3.0) into a protein-level Antigenicity Score, with a classification threshold optimized on a manually curated validation dataset. Developability is evaluated through two supervised Random Forest meta-learners that integrate three solubility predictors (DeepSoluE, SoluProt, Protein-Sol) and three thermal stability predictors (TemStaPro, ProLaTherm, BertThermo), whose outputs are combined into an Expression Efficiency Score (EES). By integrating complementary predictive signals, the meta-learning framework achieves greater accuracy and robustness than individual predictors while maintaining performance across a broad range of sequence identities. The Antigenicity Score effectively discriminates antigenic from non-antigenic proteins with a large effect size, whereas EES successfully distinguishes soluble from insoluble outcomes on an independent panel of recombinant proteins expressed in Escherichia coli. BIOINF-farma jointly assesses antigenicity and expression feasibility within a single framework. Its modular architecture facilitates the incorporation of future predictive methods, while its web-based interface makes the full pipeline accessible to users without programming expertise, supporting rapid candidate triage in vaccine research and emerging pathogen responses.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Retrieval for Long-Document RAG

Retrieval augmented generation (RAG) depends critically on the quality and granularity of retrieved evidence. Large retrieval units preserve context but often introduce irrelevant content, which can dilute answer bearing evidence and worsen long context utilization. Fine-grained units are more compact, but they may be difficult to retrieve reliably because short chunks can lack semantic, lexical, or bridging cues needed to match the query. We propose Uncertainty-aware Multi-Granularity RAG (UMG-RAG), a training-free hybrid retrieval framework that treats chunk granularity as query-specific reliability estimation. Instead of training a new retriever or modifying the generator, UMG-RAG uses existing dense and sparse retrievers as complementary experts across multiple chunk granularities. For each query, it converts each expert-granularity score list into an evidence distribution, estimates reliability from distribution entropy, and fuses candidates according to query-specific semantic, lexical, and granularity confidence. We further introduce UMGP-RAG, a parent promotion variant that uses fine-grained hits to locate relevant evidence while returning broader non-redundant parent chunks for local coherence. Experiments on question answering benchmarks show that uncertainty-aware fusion and parent promotion improve generation quality while maintaining a lightweight, plug-and-play retrieval pipeline.

16.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Mutation-dependent responses to sleep and exercise in clonal haematopoiesis

Clonal haematopoiesis (CH) activates inflammation and increases the risk of atherosclerosis1,2. Whether lifestyle alters CH clone expansion or the phenotypic programming of CH mutant cells, thereby affecting atherosclerosis, is unknown. Here, in humans and mice and across mutations in Jak2, Tet2, Trp53 and Dnmt3a, we demonstrate mutation-dependent responses to sleep and exercise in CH and show that mutant cells are uniquely sensitive to lifestyle. In two human datasets, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was associated with lower prevalence of non-DNMT3A-driven CH. In atherogenic mice with Jak2V617F or Tet2 loss of function (LOF), but not Trp53 LOF or Dnmt3aR878H CH, uninterrupted sleep or exercise curtails clone expansion. In CH with the Jak2V617F mutation, sleep and exercise reduces clone expansion by selectively reprogramming mutant, but not cohabitant wild type, haematopoietic progenitor cells towards antiproliferative and metabolically healthy phenotypes by tempering bone marrow macrophage–haematopoietic progenitor cell IL-1β signalling. Sleep or exercise also lessens Jak2V617F-driven, Tet2 LOF-driven and Trp53 LOF-driven, but not Dnmt3aR878H-driven, atherosclerosis by locally reprogramming mutant vascular macrophages, independent of peripheral clone dynamics. In Jak2V617F, but not adjacent wild type, aortic macrophages, uninterrupted sleep blunts CLEC4E-dependent inflammasome activation, consequently diminishing lesions. Exercise, meanwhile, activates PAC1+ neurons in the locus coeruleus, raising the levels of peripheral noradrenaline, which signals through adrenergic receptor β2 (ADRβ2) whose expression is preserved by exercise in Jak2V617F, but not cohabitant wild type, aortic macrophages, selectively repressing their inflammatory programming and atherosclerosis. Our findings establish that healthy lifestyles gene-specifically diminish CH and selectively reprogram mutant haematopoietic progenitor cells and macrophages to maintain cardiovascular health. Sleep and exercise can slow clonal haematopoiesis and limit mutant cell-driven atherosclerosis.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Revisiting Neural Processes via Fourier Transform and Volterra Series

arXiv:2606.01172v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Modeling unknown latent functions from finite, irregularly sampled measurements is a recurring challenge across science and engineering. Neural processes (NPs), a family of probabilistic functional models, are promising solutions – especially when endowed with domain-specific symmetries like translation equivariance, which improve sample efficiency and generalization. Yet existing translation-equivariant NPs face two limitations: (i) they stack generic components with non-linearities, obscuring the induced function class and limiting interpretability; and (ii) convolutional designs rely on kernels with local receptive fields and require dense uniform input grids, while attention-based methods avoid these issues but scale quadratically with the number of observations. We address both with two contributions. First, using the Volterra expansion, we characterize continuous translation-equivariant operators as sums of higher-order convolutions, yielding analytical transparency while admitting efficient approximation by first-order convolutions. Second, we introduce set Fourier convolutions (SFConvs), a frequency-domain parameterization that operates directly on irregularly sampled points, achieves approximately global receptive fields, and scales linearly in the number of observations. Building on these ideas, we propose two conditional NPs (CNPs): SFConvCNPs, which stack SFConv blocks with non-linearities, and SFVConvCNPs, which integrate the Volterra formulation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our methods' efficacy against state-of-the-art baselines.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

(Non)-hyperuniformity of perturbed lattices

arXiv:2405.19881v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We ask whether a stationary lattice in dimension $d$ whose points are shifted by identically distributed but possibly dependent perturbations remains hyperuniform. When $d = 1$ or $2$, we show that it is the case when the perturbations have a finite $d$-moment, and that this condition is sharp. When $d \geq 3$, we construct arbitrarily small perturbations such that the resulting point process is not hyperuniform. As a side remark of independent interest, we exhibit hyperuniform processes with arbitrarily slow decay of their number variance.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Querying an astronomical database using large language models: the ALeRCE text-to-SQL system

arXiv:2606.18108v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a text-to-SQL (structured query language) system based on large language models (LLMs) using in-context learning and apply it to the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) astronomical database. ALeRCE is a community broker for the Zwicky Transient Facility and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The system enables users to query the database in natural language (NL) and generates executable SQL queries. To develop and evaluate the system, we constructed a dataset of 110 NL/SQL pairs. We propose a step-by-step generation framework comprising four modules: schema linking, query classification, prompt decomposition, and self-correction. The performance of thirteen LLMs is evaluated using in-context learning and prompt engineering techniques. Text-to-SQL performance is assessed using the perfect-match (PM) rate for row identifiers (e.g., object identifiers) and column identifiers (i.e., column names). The proposed step-by-step framework consistently outperforms a direct-inference baseline, while the self-correction module consistently reduces execution errors. For Claude Opus 4.6, PM performance on row (column) identifiers is high for simple queries, reaching 0.97 (0.94), and decreases with query complexity to 0.44 (0.72) for medium queries and 0.59 (0.49) for hard queries. Among the thirteen evaluated models, the best-performing LLMs for the text-to-SQL task are Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Gemini 3 Flash, and GPT-5.2-Codex.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Testing For Distribution Shifts with Conditional Conformal Test Martingales

arXiv:2602.13848v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a sequential test for detecting arbitrary distribution shifts that allows conformal test martingales (CTMs) to work under a fixed, reference-conditional setting. Existing CTM detectors construct test martingales by continually growing a reference set with each incoming sample, using it to assess how atypical the new sample is relative to past observations. While this design yields anytime-valid type-I error control, it suffers from test-time contamination: after a change, post-shift observations enter the reference set and dilute the evidence for distribution shift, increasing detection delay and reducing power. In contrast, our method avoids contamination by design by comparing each new sample to a fixed null reference dataset. Our main technical contribution is a robust martingale construction that remains valid conditional on the null reference data, achieved by explicitly accounting for the estimation error in the reference distribution induced by the finite reference set. This yields anytime-valid type-I error control together with guarantees of asymptotic power one and bounded expected detection delay. Empirically, our method detects shifts faster than standard CTMs, providing a powerful and reliable distribution-shift detector.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

NetBurst: Event-Centric Forecasting of Bursty, Intermittent Time Series

arXiv:2510.22397v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Network operators monitor their infrastructure by collecting telemetry data such as packet counts, byte rates, or flow volumes, yet answering the questions that effective operations demand – forecasting future load, diagnosing and characterizing anomalies, and searching for and retrieving historical precedents – requires more than raw measurements. Bridging this gap calls for learned representations: compact per-entity summaries that capture temporal dynamics from each entity's univariate time series. Time-series foundation models are the natural starting point, but they are designed for dense, periodic benchmark datasets – the mild statistical regime. However, network telemetry data inhabits the wild regime: operationally relevant events are rare, separated by variable-length stretches of low or no activity (``ebbs''), with intermittent bursts of heavy-tailed extremes (``tides''). We present NetBurst, an event-centric pipeline that collapses ebbs, separates each time series into a stream of burst timings and a stream of burst magnitudes, and learns a single representation serving all three operational tasks. Compared to the strongest competitors among eight baselines – including Amazon's Chronos-2 and Datadog's Toto – and across nine production telemetry configurations, NetBurst reduces median forecasting error by $1.3$–$116\times$ on wild-regime data with a $1.0$–$7.5\times$ better match to the true burst distribution, and matches baselines on mild-regime benchmarks. For characterizing anomalies, NetBurst produces balanced, well-spread clusters that are $16\times$ more describable in operator-familiar terms under a novel interpretability score, and cluster-filtered search delivers $7.5\times$ faster end-to-end retrieval.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Understanding Key Features of Time Series Foundation Models from Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv:2606.19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need. Reliable forecasts of epidemic time series can inform vaccination timing, hospital staffing, and resource allocation, yet the comparative behavior of modern forecasting architectures on infectious-disease surveillance data remains insufficiently characterized. We address this gap through a systematic evaluation of regional influenza forecasting using influenza-like illness surveillance and influenza-associated hospitalization time series under both temporal and spatial generalization settings for 1-4-week-ahead prediction. We compare classical neural network architectures, numerical transformer-based models, pretrained time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasting approaches. Across tasks, we demonstrate that a mixture-of-experts model that fuses multiple pretrained forecasters achieves the strongest overall performance, indicating that heterogeneous pretrained representations provide complementary predictive information. Our results further show that numerical transformer-based models produce reliable forecasts, while pretraining provides the largest gains at longer horizons, particularly when the pretraining domain is mechanistically aligned with influenza dynamics. In contrast, LLM-based time series methods underperform relative to numerical forecasters in this setting. Finally, we examine hospitalization information as both an auxiliary covariate and a pretraining source. Hospitalization signals provide complementary improvements in selected settings and clarify when additional surveillance streams enhance the robustness of multi-horizon forecasting. These findings provide actionable guidance on model selection, pretraining strategy, and auxiliary-signal use for influenza preparedness.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

One Step Closer to Ground Truth: A Multi-Scale Residual-Aware Representation Learning Pipeline for Predicting Time Series Data

arXiv:2606.10678v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies. Despite their success, these single-stage forecasting architectures exhibit persistent systematic residual biases arising from structural discrepancies, unmodeled stochastic components, or inadequate multi-scale temporal representations. This limitation persists when residuals are treated as irreducible noise, precluding adaptive correction of structured error patterns. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-stage, model-agnostic framework that explicitly decouples forecasting and residual learning into distinct stages of representation learning. A base transformer first generates the initial predictions. Subsequently, a dedicated meta-corrector dynamically models structured error patterns across multivariate channels, preserves cross-variable dependencies, and iteratively refines the residual bias of the base transformer. By formalizing this pipeline as a hypothesis space expansion, our framework addresses approximation limitations inherent in single-stage architectures, removes reliance on restrictive assumptions, and enables end-to-end learning of complex error dynamics. Evaluated on eight popular benchmark datasets using established protocols, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with significant improvements in standard metrics (MSE, MAE). The results demonstrate the framework's ability to mitigate systematic biases and enhance robustness to complex temporal dynamics, advancing the practical applicability of transformer-based forecasting models.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Natural-Language Temporal Grounding in Hour-Long Videos is a Search Problem: A Benchmark and Empirical Decomposition

Temporal grounding–returning the interval $[t_s, t_e]$ for a natural-language query over a video–is the language interface to long-form video, yet has been studied on short videos; the dynamics of hour-scale natural-language grounding remain underexplored. We take the position that at hour-scale, the binding constraint is search, not recognition: Video-LLMs are bottlenecked not by localizing a nearby event, but–given a natural-language query–by searching for the relevant region of a long video. To test this, we release ExtremeWhenBench, the first open hour-scale grounding benchmark (2,273 queries over 194 videos, mean 75.7 min, max 9 hr) with an open-form query distribution. Every open Video-LLM collapses while a frame-level retrieval baseline outperforms them; a failure taxonomy attributes 85% of failures to search; and a retrieve-then-ground hybrid recovers 6.7x over the monolithic Video-LLM–mirroring retrieve-then-read in open-domain QA.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

A multistate model of frailty progression after severe infections in adults >=65 years in England: a matched-cohort study

Background Evidence on frailty progression following severe infections is limited. We compared rates of transition to greater frailty or death between adults with and without severe infection in England. Methods We conducted a matched-cohort study among adults aged [≥]65 years (1,452,117: median age 76 years, 45% male) in Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (2006-2019). Adults with severe infection (hospitalised primarily due to infection) were matched on calendar time to individuals without severe infection on age, sex, and primary care practice. The admission date was used as index date and same was assigned to matched unexposed adults. We measured frailty using Electronic Frailty Index, a proportion of 36 health deficits in validated categories (Fit 0-0.12, Mild >0.12-0.24, Moderate >0.24-0.36, Severe >0.36). In a time-varying Markov multistate model, we focused on forward transitions from baseline or intermediate frailty states to higher states or death. For each transition, we used Cox regression to estimate cause-specific transition hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), comparing adults with and without severe infection. We adjusted for baseline frailty score, age, sex, deprivation, harmful alcohol use, smoking, and primary care infection history 5 years before index date. We estimated state occupancy probabilities, and expected length of stay (ELOS) in each state at year five among adults with and without severe infection. We explored effect modification by infection type. Results Across all transitions, severe infection was associated with higher adjusted hazards of transitioning to worsening frailty or death, HR, 95% CI: (fit to: mild[1.56, 1.54-1.58], moderate[2.51, 1.79-3.51], death[4.57, 4.50-4.65]; mild to: moderate[1.52, 1.50-1.53], severe[1.90, 1.43-2.52], death[2.67, 2.64-2.70]; moderate to: severe[1.40, 1.38-1.42], death[1.87, 1.85-1.90]; severe to death[1.48, 1.46-1.50]). Transition hazard ratios were strongest for lower respiratory tract infections, followed by sepsis, urinary tract infections, meningitis/encephalitis, gastroenteritis, and skin and soft tissue infections. At five years, adults with severe infection had higher probabilities of transitioning to greater frailty or death across all transitions and lower ELOS in each frailty state than those without severe infection. Interpretation Severe infections may accelerate frailty deterioration in older age. Prevention through vaccination, early detection, and prompt management may help mitigate this decline.