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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Deep-Unfolded Coordination

arXiv:2606.19920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributed optimization is a highly scalable and structurally transparent technique to solve multi-agent robotics problems; however, such methods often suffer from the need for highly-specialized, problem-specific hyperparameter tunings. In this work, we propose Deep Coordinator, a deep-unfolding framework that learns to dynamically adjust the hyperparameters of ADMM-DDP, a popular distributed solver for robotics tasks, at solve-time in response to optimizer performance. Our architecture consists of unrolling a fixed number of ADMM-DDP iterations into a neural network with learnable functions between layers mapping the optimizer state to the next hyperparameters. To the best of our knowledge, Deep Coordinator is the first deep-unfolding framework to adapt the penalty parameters of a non-convex optimizer at solve-time; we show that the mainstream supervised approach can yield degenerate solutions when training such models, and propose an unsupervised learning scheme. On simulations with fleets of cars and quadrotors, Deep Coordinator produces trajectories of comparable quality 6.18-9.44x faster than conventional solvers. Furthermore, Deep Coordinator retains its performance benefits when deployed to systems up to 8x larger than trained on.

02.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-15

Spatial transcriptomic-metabolic features of tumor foci and tumor capsule in microvascular invasion with hepatocellular carcinoma: A spatial multi-omics study

Authors:

by Zhi-Hui Luo, Na Wang, Jingwei Zhao, Fei Long, Si Wu, Wei Zhong, Wei-Ming Chen, Bicheng Wang, Kun Wang, Yufeng Yuan, Jingjiao Zhou, Chunhui Yuan, Fubing Wang Background Microvascular invasion (MVI) is closely related to the recurrence and metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the underlying cellular mechanism remains largely elusive. This study aims to elucidate the regional cellular discrepancy between MVI-positive (MVI+) and MVI-negative (MVI−) HCC by integrating Spatial transcriptomics (ST) and spatial metabolomics (SM). Methods and findings ST and SM were performed on six tissue samples from four patients (including 2 MVI+, 2 MVI−, and 2 paratumor tissues), with the integration of 79 public single-cell RNA sequencing datasets of HCC. Patient identity was used as a covariate in the linear equation for regional differentially expressed gene analysis with the ST data. Clinical validation was conducted through multiplex immunofluorescence staining in 79 patients, together with external validation in the cancer genome atlas (TCGA)-liver hepatocellular carcinoma (LIHC) cohort (n = 299) and an independent microarray dataset (n = 62). For cell-type-specific metabolic profiling, spatial transcriptomic-metabolic registration was performed. The functional roles of key metabolites were further validated in vitro using inflammatory cancer-associated fibroblasts (iCAFs) derived from hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) and primary CAFs through co-culture models and various functional assays assessing cell proliferation, migration, and invasion. In the tumor lesion, a malignant STMN1+HMGN2+GPC3+ cell subtype enriched in MVI+ HCC was identified, which exhibited enhanced proliferative activity and was associated with poor prognosis. This finding was further confirmed in a local cohort of 79 patients, where multiplex immunofluorescence staining for the three genes (STMN1, HMGN2, and GPC3) showed significantly higher expression in the MVI+ group than in the MVI− group (p = 0.046). Integrated SM analysis further revealed that this cell population underwent metabolic reprogramming characterized by suppressed glycerolipid metabolism. In the tumor capsule, iCAFs-related genes were downregulated in MVI+ cases, and iCAFs were located distally from the tumor boundary. Spatial metabolite mapping showed a strong correlation between taurine and iCAFs, and functional assays demonstrated that taurine promotes HCC proliferation and migration by suppressing iCAF activity. One limitation of this study is the small sample size of spatial omics data, which hinders a more complete molecular functional analysis of the STMN1+HMGN2+GPC3+ cell subtype and iCAFs in MVI+ HCC. Larger-scale ST cohorts are required to further validate and expand the findings of this study. Conclusions This integrative spatial atlas proposes a hypothesis that there exists a highly proliferative and metabolically reprogrammed malignant cell subtype in the tumor lesion of MVI+ HCC, and that taurine in the tumor capsule modulates iCAF activity to influence tumor progression. The exploratory results provide mechanistic insights into MVI-related HCC progression and offer potential avenues for targeted therapeutic intervention of MVI+ HCC.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Breaking the Solver Bottleneck: Training Task Generators at the Learnable Frontier

The limiting resource for training agents via reinforcement learning (RL) is increasingly frontier task supply: valid, solvable tasks just difficult enough to train the current model. As reasoning and agentic models improve, fixed task distributions saturate, while naive synthetic generation yields tasks that are trivial, impossible, or ill-posed. Training a task generator with RL to optimize validity and learnability can address this bottleneck, but direct optimization requires repeated solver rollouts per candidate. For software-engineering (SWE) tasks, a single rollout can take tens of minutes; solver-in-the-loop generator training is intractable. We introduce PROPEL, a solver-amortized framework for training task generators at the targeted solve rate. PROPEL trains a lightweight activation probe on a one-time labeled corpus of generated tasks and solver outcomes. The probe predicts target-solver pass rate from a frozen generator reference model and serves as a proxy for solve rate during generator optimization, reducing generator evaluation to a single forward pass. Across math, code, and software-engineering at multiple model scales, PROPEL shifts generation toward the targeted solve rate: for coding, tasks generated at the learnable frontier increase from $10.1\% \rightarrow 20.0\%$ for a Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct solver and from $5.3\% \rightarrow 12.6\%$ for a Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct solver. For SWE, PROPEL increases the share of generations at the targeted solve rate from $9.8\% \rightarrow 19.6\%$ for Qwen3.5-27B on repositories not seen during training of probe and generator.

04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-15

Stability of the $k$-Plane Transform on Measures and Hölder-Type Comparisons of Wasserstein Metrics

arXiv:2605.00375v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We establish stability estimates for the $k$-plane transform on finite positive Radon measures, with emphasis on Fourier and Wasserstein metrics. We first introduce a metric on $k$-plane transform data and prove a bi-Lipschitz stability estimate showing that this metric is equivalent to a generalized Fourier metric obtained by augmenting the Fourier distance between centered normalized measures with separate barycenter and total mass difference terms. Building on a Hölder-type comparison between Fourier and Wasserstein metrics due to Carrillo and Toscani, we extend this comparison to positive Radon measures under uniform bounds on centered moments of order slightly larger than $2$. This yields Hölder-type stability for the $k$-plane transform in a generalized $2$-Wasserstein metric and, in particular, a $W_2$-stability estimate for centered probability measures. We also compare the $2$-Wasserstein distance with its max-sliced analogue. For centered probability measures with uniformly bounded moments of order slightly larger than $2$, we prove a two-sided Hölder-type comparison between these distances. We then extend the result to positive Radon measures by applying it to centered normalized measures and adding separate barycenter and mass terms. Finally, for absolutely continuous compactly supported probability measures with bounded densities, we prove a strong equivalence between the $2$-Wasserstein distance of the measures and the $(k/2-1)$-order Sobolev norm of the $k$-plane transform data of the difference of their densities.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Epipolar Geometry Improves Video Generation Models

Video generation models have advanced significantly through the latent diffusion transformers trained with rectified flow techniques. Yet these models still struggle with geometric inconsistencies, unstable motion, and visual artifacts that break the illusion of realistic 3D scenes. 3D-consistent video generation could significantly impact numerous downstream applications in generation and reconstruction tasks. We explore how epipolar geometry constraints improve modern video diffusion models. Despite using massive training data, these models fail to capture fundamental geometric principles. We align diffusion models using pairwise epipolar geometry constraints via preference-based optimization, directly addressing unstable trajectories and geometric artifacts through mathematically principled geometric enforcement. Our approach efficiently enforces geometric principles without requiring end-to-end differentiability. Evaluation demonstrates that classical geometric constraints provide more stable optimization signals than modern learned metrics. Training on static scenes with dynamic cameras ensures metric quality while the model generalizes to various dynamic scenes. By bridging data-driven learning with classical computer vision, we reduce epipolar error by 31% and improve human-rated consistency from 54% to 72% without compromising visual quality.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Self-Guidance: Enhancing Neural Codecs via Decoder Manifold Alignment

arXiv:2606.12940v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural speech codecs based on Vector-Quantized VAEs (VQ-VAEs) are core audio tokenizers for speech LLMs, yet their reconstruction fidelity is bottlenecked by quantization error. Modifying the quantizer or increasing model capacity are common fixes, but they complicate downstream language modeling. Our core idea is to align the decoder's internal feature manifolds when processing both the quantized tokens and their original continuous embeddings, using a lightweight feature-mapping loss. This requires minimal training overhead and no inference-time changes. Applied to XCodec2, self-guidance improves all reconstruction metrics, achieving state-of-the-art low-bitrate performance. Notably, it enables a 4x codebook reduction without fidelity loss, which downstream TTS experiments show significantly improves LLM-based synthesis by simplifying the token modeling space. Multiple statistical observations and visualizations corroborate the enhanced internal manifold alignment in the decoder. Extensive experiments confirm its generality across various inductive biases. Self-guidance thus establishes an efficient, broadly applicable method for high-fidelity neural audio coding.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

All Smoke, No Alarm: Oracle Signals in Agent-Authored Test Code

arXiv:2606.18168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Software practitioners increasingly use AI coding agents that generate test code alongside production code in open source pull requests (PRs). Recent studies report more than 932,000 agent-authored PRs across more than 116,000 repositories, yet whether their test files contain meaningful verification logic remains underexplored. Test files lacking explicit assertions execute code without verifying behavior, so quality gates based on test-file presence overestimate verification strength. The goal of this paper is to help practitioners assess the verification strength of agent-authored patches by characterizing oracle signals and their link to merge outcomes and review effort. We conduct an empirical study of 86,156 test-file patches from 33,596 agent-authored PRs across 2,807 GitHub repositories produced by five coding agents: OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Devin, Cursor, and Claude Code. A qualitative analysis of 384 stratified patches informs a syntactic taxonomy of eight oracle signal categories. Applied at scale, 80.2% of test patches contain weak or no explicit oracle signals. While raw merge rates are lower for strong-oracle PRs, a regression analysis adjusting for agent, PR size, repository popularity, task type, and language shows strong oracles significantly improve merge likelihood (OR = 1.28, p < 0.001). Our findings suggest that test file counts substantially overestimate verification strength and that practitioners can adopt oracle-aware quality checks to more accurately evaluate agent-authored contributions.

08.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

The Erdős-Hajnal High-Girth Subgraph Conjecture Holds in the Polynomial Chromatic-Sparsity Regime

Authors:

arXiv:2606.17901v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For a graph $G$ put $h_r(G)=\max{\chi(H):H\subseteq G,\operatorname{girth}(H)\ge r}.$ Erdős and Hajnal asked whether $h_r(G)\to\infty$ as $\chi(G)\to\infty$, for every fixed $r\ge4$. We prove this in every fixed polynomial edge-density regime: for all $r\ge4$, $k\ge2$, $P,C>0$, there is $M=M_{r,k}(P,C)$ such that $\chi(G)\ge M,\ e(G)\le C\chi(G)^P\Longrightarrow h_r(G)\ge k.$ Quantitatively, after replacing $P$ by $P\vee2$ and $C$ by $C\vee2$, $M_{r,k}(P,C)\le \exp!\left(O_{r,k}\bigl((P+2+\log(C\vee2))^2\bigr)\right),$ and consequently the same conclusion holds throughout the quasi-polynomial range $e(G)\le \exp\bigl(C_0(\log\chi(G))^a\bigr),\ 1 < a < 3/2,$ for all sufficiently large $\chi(G)$. In each fixed polynomial-density regime we also obtain $f_{P,C}(k,r)\le k^{O_{r,P,C}(1)}.$ The proof combines a chromatic-defect random extraction lemma, compact and near-quadratic sparse-core bases, and a peeling/thinning bootstrap increasing the admissible edge exponent by $1/(r-1)$. We also prove structural saturation results for possible counterexamples, including Moore-strength exact-cycle packings and quadratic saturation in projected colour-pair space. Finally, writing $h_r^{\mathrm f}(G)=\max{\chi_{\mathrm f}(H):H\subseteq G,\operatorname{girth}(H)\ge r},$ we develop a fractional random-extraction framework based on Mohar-Wu preservation. We prove sufficient cheap-cycle-killing criteria and verify them for several structured families, including clique-organised families, line graphs of incidence graphs of equal-order generalized quadrangles and generalized hexagons, and the Bohman-Keevash tracking-time triangle-free-process graph. We also isolate a density-free obstruction that any proof using this fractional surgery route must overcome.

09.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Visualizing the impact of quenched disorder on 2D electron Wigner solids

Authors:

Electron Wigner solids (WSs)1–12 provide an ideal system for understanding the competing effects of electron–electron and electron–disorder interactions, a central unsolved problem in condensed matter physics. Progress in this topic has been limited by a lack of single-defect-resolved experimental measurements as well as accurate theoretical tools to enable realistic experiment/theory comparison. Here we overcome these limitations by combining atomically resolved scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) with neural-quantum-state quantum Monte Carlo (NQS-QMC) simulation of disordered 2D electron WSs to discover new disorder-induced physical regimes of correlated electron behaviour. STM was used to image the electron density (ne)-dependent evolution of electron WSs in gate-tunable bilayer MoSe2 (BL-MoSe2) devices with varying long-range (nLR) and short-range (nSR) disorder densities. These images were compared with NQS-QMC simulations using realistic disorder maps extracted from experiment, thus allowing the roles of different disorder types to be disentangled. We identify two distinct physical regimes for disordered electron WSs that depend on nSR. For nSR ≲ ne, the WS behaviour is dominated by long-range disorder and features extensive mixed solid–liquid phases, a new type of local re-entrant melting/crystallization and prominent Friedel oscillations. By contrast, when nSR ≫ ne, these features are suppressed and a more robust amorphous WS phase emerges that persists to higher ne, highlighting the importance of short-range disorder in this regime. Our work establishes a powerful framework for studying disordered quantum solids through a combined experimental–theoretical approach. A technique combining atomically resolved scanning tunnelling microscopy with neural-quantum-state quantum Monte Carlo simulation of disordered 2D electron Wigner solids establishes a powerful framework to enable the clear identification of two distinct defect-induced disorder regimes.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

MAD: Manifold Attracted Diffusion

arXiv:2509.24710v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Score-based diffusion models are a highly effective method for generating samples from a distribution of images. We consider scenarios where the training data comes from a noisy version of the target distribution, and present an efficiently implementable modification of the inference procedure to generate noiseless samples. Our approach is motivated by the manifold hypothesis, according to which meaningful data is concentrated around some low-dimensional manifold of a high-dimensional ambient space. The central idea is that noise manifests as low magnitude variation in off-manifold directions in contrast to the relevant variation of the desired distribution which is mostly confined to on-manifold directions. We introduce the notion of an extended score and show that, in a simplified setting, it can be used to reduce small variations to zero, while leaving large variations mostly unchanged. We describe how its approximation can be computed efficiently from an approximation to the standard score and demonstrate its efficacy on toy problems, synthetic data, and real data.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

When Cognitive Graphs Meet LLMs: BDEI Cognitive Pathways for Panic Emotional Arousal Prediction

Predicting individual panic emotional arousal timing before manifestation is essential for proactive emergency intervention. Existing methods incorporate cognitive elements but none explicitly model the emotional arousal process, making them ill-suited for emotional arousal timing prediction. We argue that grounding prediction in appraisal emotion theory is necessary because it explicitly models this process, but three problems must be solved. (1) Appraisal theory posits that emotion arises from simultaneous evaluation across multiple threat dimensions, yet no prior work fuses these inputs into risk perception. (2) Existing cognitive models lack an Emotion node, decoupling threat appraisal from emotional arousal and forcing emotions to be inferred indirectly from behaviors. (3) Given their generalizable cognitive reasoning, current approaches adopt LLMs as the primary decision-maker, yet overlook the fragility and hallucination-proneness of their outputs. To address these issues, we introduce PanicCognitivePath (PCP), a framework that addresses all three. A Psychological Safety Distance (PSD) model, grounded in psychological distance theory, maps four-domain signals into a unified risk metric as the entry condition for subsequent cognitive reasoning. An explicit Emotion node grounded in appraisal emotion theory is introduced into BDI, forming a Belief-Desire-Emotion-Intention (BDEI) pathway. Agents whose risk metric exceeds the PSD threshold enter this pathway, coupling threat appraisal directly to emotional arousal. The BDEI pathway governs all state transitions while the LLM is confined to parameter estimation for the Belief-to-Desire transition, confining hallucinations to a single step and preventing error propagation. Experiments on Hurricane Sandy show PCP improves arousal timing accuracy by 10.68% over baselines, reduces peak count error to 7.07%.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Hierarchical Modeling of ICD Codes in EHR Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.15447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic health record foundation models typically treat ICD diagnosis codes as flat tokens, overlooking the clinically meaningful hierarchical structure that captures disease families, subcategories, and fine-grained diagnostic detail. As a result, existing EHR representation learning methods do not explicitly exploit the hierarchical structure already present in the coding system. In this work, we study ICD-10-CM hierarchy as a general inductive bias for clinical representation learning. We investigate two complementary mechanisms for incorporating hierarchy: first, by augmenting diagnosis sequences in a BERT-style transformer with tokens corresponding to different levels of the ICD hierarchy, and second, by injecting hierarchy into graph-based code representations through hierarchy-aware edges combined with diagnosis co-occurrence structure. Across these settings, we evaluate whether explicit hierarchy improves downstream prediction, which levels of the hierarchy are most useful, whether hierarchy encoding improves transfer across datasets, and how hierarchy reshapes embedding similarity structure. We conduct experiments on two large-scale real-world clinical datasets: MIMIC-IV, used for pretraining and in-domain evaluation, and eICU, used to assess cross-dataset transfer via frozen encoder probing. Our findings show that explicitly encoding ICD hierarchy improves over flat code representations in both in-domain and cross-dataset settings, while revealing that the most useful level of hierarchy depends on both the task and the modeling approach. More broadly, we focus on hierarchy-aware EHR representation learning and show that the benefits of encoding hierarchy are generalizable across modeling settings and hierarchy levels.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

From Uniform to Learned Graph Priors: Diffusion for Structure Discovery

arXiv:2606.11831v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural relational inference (NRI) methods discover interaction graphs from trajectories through variational reasoning on discrete potential edges. However, these methods typically rely on oversimplified, factorized graph priors. Such priors, typically nearing uniform distributions, treat edges as independent entities. This systemic misalignment does not match the real-world systems and yields diffuse and indecisive edge posteriors limiting the reliability of structural discovery. To address this, we propose Diff-prior, a diffusion-parameterized adaptive prior used to calibrate latent graph distribution rather than generate graphs. Our core insight is to reframe prior integration as a learnable denoising-style calibration that organizes scattered, uncertain edge posteriors into a more reliable overall structure which can be trained by the diffusion model. Diff-prior learns an adaptive structure prior that performs structured calibration on the edge posteriors during inference, guiding it towards a distribution closer to the underlying structure. The diff-prior operates before structural sampling and acts as a denoising calibrator directly on the encoder edge distribution, which provides a generic training paradigm over structured variables. Experiments on standard benchmarks validated our framework, and the results indicate that Diff-prior improves the performance of structure inference and generates more decisive edge posteriors across multiple NRI-family architectures. The code is available on https://github.com/Hardy158118/Diffprior.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Analyzing the Narration Gap in LLM-Solver Loops

arXiv:2606.19588v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Formal tools such as SAT and SMT solvers are increasingly embedded in language model reasoning pipelines when a safety or security critical question can be formulated in logic. Unlike chain of thought whose steps are sampled from the model distribution without formal guarantee, a solver produces a sound and independently verifiable answer. However, the soundness guarantee can be lost in the interaction between the solver and the model. The hybrid pipeline has three components: formalizing the question, deciding it, and narrating the result. Prior work has studied the formalization and decision, but not narration, which is the step that turns a formal tool's output into the user answer. To fill the narration gap, we first model the LLM-solver loop as a verified decision procedure. We further evaluate five open-sourced models under prompt injection, and we find certificate gating makes the solver verdict sound, while an adversary can invert a verified conclusion across phrasings and channels. We study the mitigation through hardened prompt that reduces injection significantly but cannot eliminate it and still suffers under adaptive attack. Combining the formal analysis and empirical studies, we show in the LLM-solver loop, robustness does not reach to the answer that the user finally reads.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

PI-Hunter: Automated Red-Teaming for Exposing and Localizing Prompt Injections

arXiv:2606.12737v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly evolving into agentic systems that interact with external tools and environments, introducing new security risks such as indirect prompt injection attacks through untrusted external sources. Existing defenses mainly focus on blocking malicious content at inference time, and current red-teaming methods primarily optimize attack success. As a result, developers have limited visibility into how latent prompt injections emerge and propagate through agents. We propose PI-Hunter, an automated agentic auditing framework for proactive vulnerability exposure in LLM agents. PI-Hunter constructs realistic source-aware test cases and iteratively evolves them through feedback-driven exploration to induce agents to retrieve and reveal latent malicious instructions embedded within external environments. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks, agent architectures, attacks, and defenses demonstrate that PI-Hunter substantially improves vulnerability exposure and attack-surface coverage over strong automated red-teaming baselines, while remaining effective under existing prompt injection defenses.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

DecNefSimulator: A Modular, Interpretable Framework for Decoded Neurofeedback Simulation Using Generative Models

arXiv:2511.14555v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Decoded Neurofeedback (DecNef) is a promising non-invasive approach to brain modulation with wide-ranging applications in neuromedicine and cognitive neuroscience. However, progress in DecNef research remains constrained by subject-dependent learning variability, reliance on indirect measures to quantify progress, and the high cost and time demands of experimentation. We present DecNefSimulator, a modular and interpretable simulation framework that formalizes DecNef as a machine learning problem. Beyond providing a virtual laboratory, DecNefSimulator enables researchers to model, analyze and understand neurofeedback dynamics. Using latent variable generative models as simulated participants, DecNefSimulator allows direct observation of internal cognitive states and systematic evaluation of how different protocol designs and subject characteristics influence learning. We demonstrate how this approach can (i) reproduce empirical phenomena of DecNef learning, (ii) identify conditions under which DecNef feedback fails to induce learning, and (iii) guide the design of more robust and reliable DecNef protocols in silico before human implementation. In summary, DecNefSimulator bridges computational modeling and cognitive neuroscience, offering a principled foundation for methodological innovation, robust protocol design, and ultimately, a deeper understanding of DecNef-based brain modulation.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation

arXiv:2606.13221v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Evaluating new large language models typically requires costly human annotation campaigns at scale. LLM-as-a-judge offers a cheaper alternative, but judge scores carry systematic errors - such as position bias, self-preference, or intransitivity - that can strongly miscalibrate the resulting rankings. We quantify the resulting judge-human disagreement at two complementary levels. At the local level, we estimate per-battle uncertainty from the judge's own score differences by propagating calibrated win probabilities rather than hard labels into the Bradley-Terry procedure. This alone provides a drastic improvement to Elo estimation accuracy, bringing LLM-derived ratings within 17.9 Elo MAE of human-derived ones when averaged over 55 held-out models on LMArena. At the global level, we apply split conformal prediction to the residual gap between LLM-derived and human-derived Elo ratings across held-out models, producing prediction intervals with distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees that account for irreducible LLM-human disagreement. Together, these two layers yield a low-cost evaluation tool that provides developers with calibrated Elo estimates and honest uncertainty bounds, without access to large-scale human annotations.To facilitate reproducibility, we release our code at https://github.com/kargibora/SoftElo .

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Factions Within, Uncertain Across: Within-Document Reader Sub-Groups in Social Highlighting

When many people highlight the same document, is the crowd a single consensus, or is it internally structured into reader sub-groups that mark different things – and is that structure a stable property of a reader or of the document? Building on prior work showing an individual's within-document highlighting signal is a whisper while individuality lives in selection, we ask the group-level question on a co-readership platform using a margin-preserving curveball null. Experiment 1: within a document, readers form strong sub-groups – pairs agree far beyond what shared salience, mark density, and sentence popularity predict (nearest-neighbour agreement z=+6.3, significant in 88% of documents). Under an eight-block region-preserving null, shared engagement with the same coarse regions of the document accounts for about 40% of this excess; the majority survives as finer reader-specific agreement (z=+3.6, 77% significant). So the within-document crowd is, in a descriptive sense, factional. Experiment 2: is that grouping a stable reader trait? Here we are honest about power. The cross-document split-half reproducibility of a pair's agreement is near zero pooled (+0.078 and 0.000 in two separately drawn samples), and a power calibration shows the test is informative only for pairs that co-read many documents. In the only informative high-overlap subset (k>=4), point estimates are positive but small-sample, imprecise across the separately drawn samples, never significant, and attenuate under the region-preserving null. We therefore leave cross-document stability unresolved: the data is consistent with anything from situational grouping to a weak-to-moderate stable reader trait. The crowd is factional within a document; whether its factions follow the reader across documents is, honestly, beyond our reach.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Accurate detection of tumor clonality and ongoing expansion mode from genomic data

Recent evidence shows that despite considerable effort, currently available algorithms for estimating intra-tumor heterogeneity (ITH) remain limited. We developed DECODE (Deciphering Cancer Origin from DNA Evolution), a novel mutation clustering method that incorporates the impact of sample-specific sequencing coverage and mutation calling biases. On synthetic data, DECODE outperformed existing methods across multiple clonality metrics and accurately detected and characterized the neutral tail in the site frequency spectrum (SFS), which encodes the tumor's ongoing expansion mode. In acute myeloid leukemia, accounting for the neutral tail enabled DECODE to yield more parsimonious clonal decompositions that align more closely with known subclonal dynamics that drive relapse. Applied to data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, DECODE not only detected a neutral SFS tail in most samples across tumor types but also uncovered a clinically meaningful link between ITH and survival in low-grade glioma. By jointly inferring clonality and expansion mode, DECODE provides two complementary and prognostically relevant readouts of tumor evolution from single tumor genomic samples.

20.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Metastatic Patterns and Treatment Characteristics of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer in Nigeria: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive breast cancer subtype characterized by the absence of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression. It is associated with limited targeted treatment options, early relapse, and a high propensity for visceral metastasis. Data describing metastatic patterns and treatment characteristics of TNBC in Nigeria remain limited. Methods: This retrospective descriptive cohort study included 869 patients with TNBC managed at the Medserve-LUTH Cancer Center, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria between June 2019 and June 2024. Demographic, clinicopathologic, metastatic, and treatment-related data were extracted from electronic medical records. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize patient characteristics, metastatic patterns, and treatment profiles. Associations between metastatic disease and selected clinicopathologic and treatment variables were explored using Pearsons chi-square test. Complete-case analysis was applied throughout. Results: The mean age at presentation was 52.09 {+/-} 12.26 years. Most patients were married (79.1%), postmenopausal (64.3%), and of Yoruba ethnicity (56.8%). Advanced disease predominated, with Stage III and Stage IV disease accounting for 42.9% and 35.6% of cases, respectively. Invasive ductal carcinoma was the most common histologic subtype (77.0%), while Grade II tumours constituted 51.3% of graded cases. Surgery was performed in 73.1% of patients, predominantly mastectomy (70.9% of surgical procedures). Chemotherapy was administered to 83.2% of patients, most commonly anthracycline-based regimens (41.8%), while radiotherapy was delivered to 63.5% of patients, with hypofractionated schedules of 42-43 Gy in 15-16 fractions accounting for 47.2% of radiotherapy courses. Metastatic disease was documented in 32.9% of evaluable patients. Lung metastasis was the most frequent site (62.5%), followed by bone (46.3%), regional lymph node invasion (38.5%), liver (23.0%), and brain (22.6%). Tumour grade and histologic subtype were not significantly associated with metastatic disease, whereas radiotherapy exposure demonstrated a significant association with metastatic status ({chi}{superscript 2} = 10.35, p = 0.001). Conclusion: TNBC in this Nigerian cohort was characterized by advanced-stage presentation, invasive ductal predominance, extensive use of multimodality treatment, and substantial visceral metastatic burden. Lung metastasis was the most common metastatic site. These findings provide contemporary real-world data on TNBC in Nigeria and highlight the continuing need for earlier diagnosis, timely referral, and sustained investment in comprehensive cancer care services.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

C2FL: Clustered Continual Federated Learning under Spatial and Temporal Drift

arXiv:2606.18003v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Collective Adaptive Systems (CAS) increasingly rely on machine learning to let each node learn from locally sensed data, aligning its behavior with the surrounding environment. Scaling this intelligence, however, raises fundamental challenges: sensed data is often privacy-sensitive, preventing centralized collection; nodes are mobile, traversing regions where nearby nodes perceive similar phenomena while distant ones observe radically different conditions, creating natural spatial clusters; and these distributions evolve over time due to mobility, introducing temporal drift that makes local models progressively stale. These dynamics arise across domains - vehicular sensing, drone-based monitoring, smartphone crowdsensing - yet the interplay of privacy, spatial heterogeneity, and temporal drift severely undermines conventional learning strategies. Therefore, we propose C2FL, a fully distributed Federated Learning (FL) approach where nodes self-organize into learning groups through spatial clustering, reflecting the geographic structure of the environment. To counteract temporal drift, each node combines experience replay with a dwell-time-aware adaptive averaging step, progressively incorporating the regional consensus as it remains longer within the same area, while preserving previously acquired knowledge under evolving distributions. We evaluate our approach on synthetic experiments that systematically reproduce spatial and temporal shifts, showing that standard federated strategies degrade significantly under these conditions and that our method restores robust collective adaptation.

22.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Multi-Turn Reflective Masking Elicits Reasoning in Mask Diffusion Models

While reasoning on autoregressive (AR) models is often performed by chain-of-thought reasoning and reflection, their refinement of previous outputs still relies on fully sequential generation, even when only local edits are needed. In contrast, the masking mechanism in Mask Diffusion Models (MDMs) naturally supports explicit local edits on previous outputs, allowing selective refinement without discarding previous answers and generating another from scratch. While this property more closely aligns with how humans correct mistakes by iterative local refinement, existing MDMs do not support multi-turn masking and denoising. We propose Reflective Masking (RM), which elicits such an intrinsic reasoning capability in MDMs via lightweight post-training. RM provides a native test-time scaling, where an MDM iteratively revisits and revises its prior outputs based on evolving context. To exploit insights from previous turns like AR reasoning, we further introduce History Reference, a parameter-free mechanism that leverages intermediate denoising states during revision. Our approach requires no architectural changes and is easily applicable to existing MDMs. Across diverse tasks and modalities, including text generation, Sudoku, and image editing, Reflective Masking consistently outperforms standard masking-based baselines and demonstrates strong generality, positioning RM as a fundamental primitive for reasoning on MDMs.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Data-Driven Stochastic Model for Detecting Patientswith Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer s disease (AD) is a critical neurological disorder that causes the brain to shrink and leads to the eventual death of brain cells, adversely affecting a person s ability to function. AD is a fast-growing disease in the United States and was the fifth leading cause of death among Americans 65 years of age or older in 2023. In the United States 6.9 million people aged 65 or older were diagnosed with AD, along with a high rate of undiagnosed patients. Thus, the objective of our study is to develop a real data-driven predictive model to identify a patient with AD based on eight risk factors: Age, Gender, ADAS-Cog13, Entorhinal, Fusiform, Intracranial Volume (ICV), Amyloid-Beta, and Tau Protein, with a high degree of accuracy. The quality of the model was evaluated using well-established and sophisticated statistical measures: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and K-fold cross-validation. If a patient is given information on the above risk factors, our proposed binary logistic regression model can classify the patient as having AD or not with at least 98% accuracy.

24.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Trusted Uncertainty in Large Language Models: A Unified Framework for Confidence Calibration and Risk-Controlled Refusal

Deployed language models must decide not only what to answer but also when not to answer. We present UniCR, a unified framework that turns heterogeneous uncertainty evidence including sequence likelihoods, self-consistency dispersion, retrieval compatibility, and tool or verifier feedback into a calibrated probability of correctness and then enforces a user-specified error budget via principled refusal. UniCR learns a lightweight calibration head with temperature scaling and proper scoring, supports API-only models through black-box features, and offers distribution-free guarantees using conformal risk control. For long-form generation, we align confidence with semantic fidelity by supervising on atomic factuality scores derived from retrieved evidence, reducing confident hallucinations while preserving coverage. Experiments on short-form QA, code generation with execution tests, and retrieval-augmented long-form QA show consistent improvements in calibration metrics, lower area under the risk-coverage curve, and higher coverage at fixed risk compared to entropy or logit thresholds, post-hoc calibrators, and end-to-end selective baselines. Analyses reveal that evidence contradiction, semantic dispersion, and tool inconsistency are the dominant drivers of abstention, yielding informative user-facing refusal messages. The result is a portable recipe of evidence fusion to calibrated probability to risk-controlled decision that improves trustworthiness without fine-tuning the base model and remains valid under distribution shift.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Deployment-readiness audit of calibration, clinical utility, and fairness in perioperative infection prediction

Objective: Clinical risk scores intended to guide patient-level decisions can show strong average performance. However, predicted probabilities can be systematically too high or too low in specific subgroups even when overall performance is strong. We audited deployment readiness of a strong end-of-surgery postoperative infection model across clinically relevant subgroups and tested mitigation strategies in miscalibrated subgroups. Materials and Methods: We analyzed out-of-fold predictions for 10,719 surgical procedures at a Swiss tertiary hospital, with 504 postoperative bacterial infection events. Prespecified axes were recorded sex, age stratum, and an EHR-derived physiological-reserve proxy. Within subgroups and pairwise intersections, we evaluated discrimination, calibration, threshold-specific errors, and decision-curve net benefit at the prespecified operating threshold. We compared group-specific isotonic recalibration with Wasserstein-barycenter postprocessing and demonstrated portability in SUPPORT2. Results: Overall AUROC was 0.876. While sex-marginal discrimination was similar in women and men (0.878 vs 0.875), age and reserve stratification revealed deployment-readiness failures. Calibration-in-the-large ranged from -0.86 in frail patients to -2.47 in non-frail patients. At the 0.10 operating threshold, decision-curve net benefit was positive in frail patients but negative in pre-frail and non-frail patients. Isotonic recalibration corrected average physiological-reserve-stratified calibration without worsening Brier scores, whereas Wasserstein postprocessing worsened calibration in most procedure clusters. Discussion: Discrimination-only or sex-marginal evaluation would have missed subgroup failures with clinical-utility implications. Conclusion: Subgroup fairness audits for clinical deployment should jointly evaluate discrimination, calibration, and utility. We implemented the audit as the open-source isitfair framework for identifying deployment-relevant subgroup failures, comparing mitigation strategies, and generating structured reports.