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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

A Pragmatic VLA Foundation Model

Offering great potential in robotic manipulation, a capable Vision-Language-Action (VLA) foundation model is expected to faithfully generalize across tasks and platforms while ensuring cost efficiency (e.g., data and GPU hours required for adaptation). To this end, we develop LingBot-VLA with around 20,000 hours of real-world data from 9 popular dual-arm robot configurations. Through a systematic assessment on 3 robotic platforms, each completing 100 tasks with 130 post-training episodes per task, our model achieves clear superiority over competitors, showcasing its strong performance and broad generalizability. We have also built an efficient codebase, which delivers a throughput of 261 samples per second with an 8-GPU training setup, representing a 1.5~2.8$\times$ (depending on the relied VLM base model) speedup over existing VLA-oriented codebases. The above features ensure that our model is well-suited for real-world deployment. To advance the field of robot learning, we provide open access to the code, base model, and benchmark data, with a focus on enabling more challenging tasks and promoting sound evaluation standards.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Think Fast: Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models

arXiv:2606.07157v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many efforts to ensure frontier AI models are safe rely on monitoring their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. If models become able to perform sufficiently complex reasoning internally, without explicit thinking tokens, this would undermine such oversight. We measure how well frontier models reason without CoT across a suite of over 30,000 questions spanning 43 benchmarks in domains including math, coding, puzzles, causality, theory-of-mind, and strategic reasoning. To compare models against humans, we estimate the $50\%$-task-completion time horizon (TH): the human time required for tasks a model completes with $50\%$ success rate. We complement this with a $50\%$ reasoning token horizon: the minimum number of o3-mini reasoning tokens needed for tasks a model solves with $50\%$ success rate. We find that the no-CoT $50\%$ TH of frontier models has been doubling roughly every year over the past six years, with GPT-5.5's TH reaching over 3 minutes and reasoning token horizon exceeding 1,500 tokens. Our median estimates predict that frontier no-CoT THs could exceed 7 minutes by 2028, and 25 minutes by 2030, though these projections carry substantial uncertainty. We recommend frontier developers track this explicitly.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

DenseControl: Instance-Level Controllable Synthesis of Dense Crowd Image

In this paper, we introduce DenseControl, a novel pipeline for generating dense crowd images. Specifically, DenseControl meticulously positions and sizes each generated instance to align precisely with the predefined coordinates and scales. Based on this, we further allow for control over the background, style, and attributes of instances. The motivation behind DenseControl stems from the observation of two main challenges in synthesizing crowd images: controlling signal embedding and maintaining topological integrity when imparting instance scale guidance. To address these, we first introduce the Isolated Object Embedding (IOE) map, a novel representation that facilitates spatial location control while mitigating the difficulties associated with learning projections for model. Secondly, we propose an Implicit Scale Embedding (ISE) strategy that seamlessly integrates with the IOE map to encode precise scale information. To further enhance the efficacy of combining ISE with the IOE map, we incorporate a Position Shortcut mechanism that enhances cross-attention to alleviate projection challenges. We evaluate DenseControl through two lenses: synthesis quality and applicability in latent applications. Experiments across different control conditions demonstrate DenseControl achieves state-of-the-art results in dense crowd image synthesis. Furthermore, we showcase applications in augmenting crowd analysis under data scarcity, transfer learning, and weather generalization scenes, to highlight the practical utility of DenseControl. The codebase will be released.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Adversarial Concept Search: Predicting Compositional Errors From Feature Geometry

arXiv:2606.13934v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Humans cannot always intuit what scenarios are most challenging to LLMs. Hoping to capture challenging edge cases, developers either design problems to be difficult for humans or curate extensive benchmarks. What if we could instead anticipate which scenarios a model will fail on? In this paper, we use an LLM's representational geometry to predict which concept combinations it will fail on. We attribute this compositional failure to interference between salient features. In tasks that require systematic composition - toy programmatic settings, multihop reasoning, multilingual factual recall - we find that when a pair of concepts is encoded near-orthogonally, the model reliably composes them. When their linear encodings are close, producing interference, the model fails to compose them. Our method reliably anticipates failure modes across different compositional tasks, without evaluating specific inputs. These results lay the groundwork to use representational geometry to identify high-risk examples, construct targeted stress tests, and provide a scalable foundation for active learning in real-world deployment.

05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Asymptotics of the number of labelled connected sparse multitype graphs

arXiv:2606.17912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the asymptotic enumeration of labelled connected multitype graphs in the sparse regime, where both the number of vertices and edges grow linearly and the excess is proportional to the size of the graph. Extending the classical theory of connected graph enumeration to the multitype setting, we consider graphs with prescribed numbers of vertices of each type and prescribed edge counts between each pair of types. Our approach is probabilistic and relies on the theory of inhomogeneous random graphs. In particular, we exploit large-deviation principles and asymptotic estimates for connectedness probabilities to relate the counting problem to the emergence of giant components in suitably tuned supercritical random graphs. From large deviation asymptotics of connected components of inhomogeneous random graphs, we recognize that a connected graph with a given edge statistics corresponds to the (unique) giant component of larger inhomogeneous random graph with a suitably chosen connection kernel. This correspondence allows us to derive the leading exponential asymptotics for the number of connected multitype graphs with fixed type profile and edge matrix. The resulting formula generalizes the asymptotic enumeration results of Bender, Canfield, and McKay for connected sparse graphs to the multitype framework. More broadly, the paper illustrates how probabilistic techniques can provide transparent and effective tools for addressing new combinatorial enumeration problems.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Capturing Intransitive Dominance in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach

arXiv:2510.20454v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural network approach that explicitly models these intransitive relationships through temporal directed graphs, with players as nodes and their historical match outcomes as directed edges. Our model (65.7% accuracy, 0.214 Brier score) forecasts competitively with established rating systems such as Weighted Elo. Although it does not improve on the baseline in unconditional accuracy, a forecast-encompassing test shows that it carries complementary information. A combined forecast significantly outperforms Weighted Elo, and there is some indication that the gain grows more strongly on the intransitive matchups our model targets. A graph-based representation of player interactions thus captures a forecasting signal that transitive rating systems discard, even between players who share no common opponents.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Sign-Rank, Index, and List Replicability: Connections and Separations

arXiv:2606.18236v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In learning theory, the sign rank of a binary concept class captures the smallest dimension in which it can be represented by points and halfspaces. Despite tremendous interest, lower bounds on sign rank are notoriously difficult to come by. Two recent approaches to the problem establish lower bounds on sign rank by measures that are easier to analyze: the $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index and the list replicability number. We order these measures, showing that the $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index is upper-bounded by a linear function of the list replicability number. As a main consequence, we obtain a strong separation between sign rank and $\mathbb{Z}_2$-index, thereby resolving a question of Frick, Hosseini, and Vasileuski. This motivates a thorough study of list replicability, the stronger of the two lower-bounding measures. We establish upper bounds on the list replicability number by two combinatorial measures: height and minimum star number. We also prove a fundamental composition result, showing that the product of two concept classes has list replicability number bounded by the sum of the list replicability numbers of the two classes.

09.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Structural basis for chaperone-guided assembly of RNA-induced silencing complex

The RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC), comprising an Argonaute (AGO) protein and a small RNA, is the central effector in RNA silencing. Small RNAs are loaded onto AGO as bulky duplexes in an HSP70- and HSP90-dependent process1–3, but the molecular mechanism remains poorly understood. Here we identify the human AGO–HSP90–p23 complex, which captures AGO in an RNA-free state, termed the AGO maturation complex (AMC). The purified AMC enables RNA loading and AGO folding, faithfully recapitulating de novo RISC assembly. Using cryogenic electron microscopy, we determined the structure of AMC bound to a microRNA duplex. In contrast to its conformation in the RISC, AGO adopts a highly open conformation in the AMC: the N domain and the RNA-binding module (PAZ–MID–PIWI) are fully detached and anchored to opposite sides of the HSP90 dimer, connected solely by the unfolded L1 linker. This arrangement exposes a positively charged cleft that accommodates an RNA duplex. AGO folding is facilitated by a small RNA duplex containing a 5′-terminal phosphate—but not by single-stranded RNAs—revealing a role for the RNA duplex as a chaperone-like cofactor that directs AGO domain assembly. These findings elucidate the RISC assembly mechanism and establish the AMC as a molecular tool for probing optimal RNA features and chemical modifications for the rational design of small interfering RNA therapeutics. Our study also sheds light on how chaperones, together with ligands, can guide the folding of client proteins. Structures of the AGO maturation complex reveal how chaperones and an RNA duplex drive assembly of the RNA-induced silencing complex.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Towards Leveraging AutoML for Sustainable Deep Learning: A Multi-Objective HPO Approach on Deep Shift Neural Networks

arXiv:2404.01965v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep Learning (DL) has advanced various fields by extracting complex patterns from large datasets. However, the computational demands of DL models pose environmental and resource challenges. Deep shift neural networks (DSNNs) offer a solution by leveraging shift operations to reduce computational complexity at inference. Following the insights from standard DNNs, we are interested in leveraging the full potential of DSNNs by means of AutoML techniques. We study the impact of hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to maximize DSNN performance while minimizing resource consumption. Since this combines multi-objective (MO) optimization with accuracy and energy consumption as potentially complementary objectives, we propose to combine state-of-the-art multi-fidelity (MF) HPO with multi-objective optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, resulting in models with over 80\% in accuracy and low computational cost. Overall, our method accelerates efficient model development while enabling sustainable AI applications.

11.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Written by AI, Managed by AI: Semantic Space Control and Index Sickness Elimination Across 391 Consecutive Sessions

The prevailing engineering intuition for addressing conceptual drift in long-horizon LLM collaboration is to trade more formal constraints for more reliable outputs – designing symbolic identifier systems, accumulating defensive rules in System Prompts, expanding context windows. Our engineering record shows that in long-horizon settings, this direction may produce effects contrary to design intent. Using action research methods in a real software project (Bang-v3) spanning approximately one month and 391 collaborative sessions, we document and analyze the failure process of these strategies. When the symbolic system exceeds a complexity threshold, LLMs do not become more accurate – instead, they abandon genuine understanding of business semantics, retreat to self-referential reasoning within the symbolic layer, and generate outputs that appear internally consistent but are physically disconnected from reality. We name this failure pattern "Index Sickness," and its canonical manifestation "Phantom Legislation." We name the underlying principle the "Pang Principle (Semantic Vitality Law)": natural language carrying explicit purpose conveys far greater information quality than symbolic expression. From this, we design and validate its physical engineering mechanism: "Baseline-Log Physical Separation." In the same project, this mechanism reduced AI Instructions volume by ~75%, and across the subsequent ~150 sessions, no recurrence of Index Sickness was observed. A bilingual companion version (Chinese) is included as supplementary material.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Beyond Parallel Sampling: Diverse Query Initialization for Agentic Search

arXiv:2606.17209v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Test-time scaling for agentic search typically increases depth (i.e., more turns and tokens per trajectory) or breadth (i.e., more parallel rollouts). Here we focus on breadth scaling, showing that standard parallel sampling yields diminishing returns, tracing this to query redundancy at the first turn. When models issue similar first queries across rollouts, the threads retrieve overlapping evidence, and subsequent turns are conditioned on this shared retrieval. We address this limitation with DivInit, a training-free intervention at the first turn. Rather than sampling k independent first queries, DivInit draws n candidates from a single call, picks k < n diverse seeds, and runs them as parallel trajectories. Across five open-weight models and eight benchmarks, DivInit consistently improves over standard parallel sampling, with average gains of five to seven points on multi-hop QA at matched compute. Code available at https://github.com/cxcscmu/diverse-query-initialization

13.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Deployment-readiness audit of calibration, clinical utility, and fairness in perioperative infection prediction

Objective: Clinical risk scores intended to guide patient-level decisions can show strong average performance. However, predicted probabilities can be systematically too high or too low in specific subgroups even when overall performance is strong. We audited deployment readiness of a strong end-of-surgery postoperative infection model across clinically relevant subgroups and tested mitigation strategies in miscalibrated subgroups. Materials and Methods: We analyzed out-of-fold predictions for 10,719 surgical procedures at a Swiss tertiary hospital, with 504 postoperative bacterial infection events. Prespecified axes were recorded sex, age stratum, and an EHR-derived physiological-reserve proxy. Within subgroups and pairwise intersections, we evaluated discrimination, calibration, threshold-specific errors, and decision-curve net benefit at the prespecified operating threshold. We compared group-specific isotonic recalibration with Wasserstein-barycenter postprocessing and demonstrated portability in SUPPORT2. Results: Overall AUROC was 0.876. While sex-marginal discrimination was similar in women and men (0.878 vs 0.875), age and reserve stratification revealed deployment-readiness failures. Calibration-in-the-large ranged from -0.86 in frail patients to -2.47 in non-frail patients. At the 0.10 operating threshold, decision-curve net benefit was positive in frail patients but negative in pre-frail and non-frail patients. Isotonic recalibration corrected average physiological-reserve-stratified calibration without worsening Brier scores, whereas Wasserstein postprocessing worsened calibration in most procedure clusters. Discussion: Discrimination-only or sex-marginal evaluation would have missed subgroup failures with clinical-utility implications. Conclusion: Subgroup fairness audits for clinical deployment should jointly evaluate discrimination, calibration, and utility. We implemented the audit as the open-source isitfair framework for identifying deployment-relevant subgroup failures, comparing mitigation strategies, and generating structured reports.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Position: Hippocampal Explicit Memory Is the Cornerstone for AGI

作者:

arXiv:2606.11245v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks, raising expectations for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This position paper argues that integrating explicit memory is the cornerstone for advancing LLMs toward AGI. The key reason is that the underlying learning mechanism of LLMs is highly analogous to human implicit memory. However, higher-order cognitive functions necessary for AGI, such as long-term strategic planning, metacognition, and symbolic reasoning, heavily rely on hippocampal explicit memory and cannot arise solely from implicit statistical learning. Drawing on findings from neuroscience, I advance this perspective and complement it with computational requirements for artificial explicit memory systems, hoping to foster further research and lay the groundwork for explicit memory integration.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Self-Supervised Learning of Iterative Solvers for Constrained Optimization

arXiv:2409.08066v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The real-time solution of parametric optimization problems is critical for applications that demand high accuracy under tight real-time constraints, such as model predictive control. To this end, this work presents a learning-based iterative solver for constrained optimization, comprising a neural network predictor that generates initial primal-dual solution estimates, followed by a learned iterative solver that refines these estimates to reach high accuracy. We introduce a novel loss function based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions, enabling fully self-supervised training without pre-solved optimizer solutions. Theoretical guarantees ensure that the training loss function attains minima exclusively at KKT points. A convexification procedure enables application to nonconvex problems while preserving these guarantees. Experiments on two nonconvex case studies demonstrate speedups of up to one order of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art solvers such as IPOPT, while achieving orders of magnitude higher accuracy than competing learning-based approaches.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Two-Phase Bilevel Search for the Moving-Target Traveling Salesman Problem with Moving Obstacles

arXiv:2606.18730v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The Moving-Target Traveling Salesman Problem (MT-TSP) seeks a minimum cost trajectory for an agent that departs from a static depot, visits a set of moving targets, each within one of their assigned time windows, and returns to the depot. In this article, we study the Moving-Target Traveling Salesman Problem with Moving Obstacles (MT-TSP-MO), a generalization of the MT-TSP where the agent trajectory must avoid moving obstacles. We present a Mixed-Integer Conic Programming (MICP) formulation that can be solved using off-the-shelf solvers, as well as a fast and scalable Two-Phase Bilevel Search (TPBS) algorithm that computes high-quality feasible solutions for the problem. We evaluate our approaches against an existing baseline algorithm on a broad range of problem instances with up to 40 targets and 40 obstacles. The results demonstrate that both the proposed methods significantly outperform the baseline with respect to success rates, solution costs, and computation time.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Diffusive Relaxation of Participation Entropy in U(1)-symmetric Dynamics

arXiv:2606.11561v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Participation entropy (PE) quantifies the spread of a many-body wavefunction across configuration space. While PE relaxes rapidly in generic chaotic systems, we show that $\mathrm{U}(1)$ conservation laws slow it down by imprinting with the slow hydrodynamic modes. Using a cluster expansion around equilibrium, we show that, after local density inhomogeneities decay, the leading PE deficit is dominated by squared connected density correlations. The long time relaxation is therefore controlled by diffusive correlation spreading, giving $\Delta S(t)\sim t^{-1/2}$ in the hydrodynamic regime and crossing over to $\sim \exp[-O(t/L^2)]$ when $t\geq L^2$. We confirm this entropy correlation relation using exact computation and infinite system tensor network simulations in various quantum $\mathrm{U}(1)$ conserving circuits. Our results establish PE as a sensitive probe of hydrodynamic memory and suggest that slow relaxation is a generic consequence of conservation laws.

18.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

MetaboNet-Bench: A Multi-modal Benchmark for Glucose Forecasting in Type 1 Diabetes

arXiv:2606.18640v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Glucose forecasting algorithms are an important aspect of glycemic control management in type 1 diabetes. So far, the research community has developed numerous algorithms and models for forecasting. However, it is well-recognized that the lack of standardized model performance evaluation benchmarks makes fair comparison difficult and hinders further innovation, and thus benchmark standardization is in urgent need. Furthermore, many published glucose forecasting algorithms are limited to CGM data alone, ignoring other multimodal signals such as insulin dosing and carbohydrate intake. Here, we introduce MetaboNet-Bench, a benchmark for multimodal glucose forecasting for patients with type 1 diabetes that provides an extensible open-source evaluation framework for comparison of glucose forecasting algorithms that leverage glucose, insulin, and carbohydrate data. We then demonstrate its utility by benchmarking several recently published glucose forecasting models and a custom multimodal time-series model, representing different model architectures. The results show that the benefit of adding data modalities is conditioned on the complexity of the model and that incorporating more clinical metrics helps identify meaningful gaps to fill for future research.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-20

RNAStabFormer: Region-Aware Multi-Task Hybrid Learning for RNA Stability Prediction from Pulse-Chase Transcriptomics

作者:

RNA stability is a central layer of post-transcriptional gene regulation, yet large-scale stability labels derived from pulse-chase transcriptomics depend strongly on quantification region, time-window definition, and replicate quality control. We present RNAStabFormer, a controlled learning framework for predicting human RNA stability proxies from transcript sequence. Its core model, RAMHT, combines region-specific nucleotide Transformer encoders for CDS, and sequence, a CDS codon stream, engineered sequence-grammar features, gated fusion, and four task-specific regression heads. We construct four strict consensus labels from ENCODE BrU-seq/BruChase-seq data by crossing gene-sense and exon-sense quantification with late-chase 6 h/2 h and total-chase 6 h/0 h retention ratios, and evaluate all models on fixed repeated-random and chromosome-holdout splits. Across chromosome holdouts, XGBoost remains the strongest standalone model, with median Pearson correlations of 0.504, 0.544, 0.546, and 0.778 on the four labels. RAMHT is competitive with raw-sequence deep models but does not universally exceed engineered-feature baselines. A strict nested RAMHT–XGBoost blend nevertheless improves gene total-chase prediction by 0.017 mean Pearson and exon late-chase prediction by 0.004 mean Pearson over XGBoost. Region and mechanism analyses show that CDS, local k-mer composition, and codon-sensitive signals dominate predictive information. RNAStabFormer therefore provides both a multi-task neural model and a leakage-controlled evaluation protocol for RNA stability prediction from pulse-chase data.

20.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Positive Conserved Quantities in the Klein-Gordon Equation

作者:

arXiv:2410.04666v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce an embedding of the Klein-Gordon equation into a pair of coupled equations that are first-order in time. The existence of such an embedding is based on a positivity property exhibited by the Klein-Gordon equation. These coupled equations provide a more satisfactory reduction of the Klein-Gordon equation to first-order differential equations in time than the Schrodinger equation. Using this embedding, we show that the ``negative probabilities" associated with the Klein-Gordon equation do not need to be resolved by introducing matrices as Dirac did with his eponymous equation. For the case of the massive Klein-Gordon equation, the coupled equations are equivalent to a forward Schrodinger equation in time and a backward Schrodinger equation in time, respectively, corresponding to a particle and its antiparticle. We show that there are two positive integrals that are conserved (constant in time) in the Klein-Gordon equation and thus provide a concrete resolution of the historical puzzle regarding the previously supposed lack of a probabilistic interpretation for the field governed by the Klein-Gordon equation. A significant consequence is that the Schrodinger equation is given a relativistic formulation, which does not require creation and annihilation operators, i.e. quantum fields. Physically, this corresponds to a theory in which the positive and negative energy parts do not directly interact, hence there will be no annihilation events–for example, particle-antiparticle collisions which do not result in photon emission. Thus, one practical consequence of this relativistically consistent theory is a simple explanation for dark matter.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

On Surjectivity of Neural Networks: Can you elicit any behavior from your model?

arXiv:2508.19445v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Given a trained neural network, can any specified output be generated by some input? Equivalently, does the network correspond to a function that is surjective? In generative models, surjectivity implies that any output, including harmful or undesirable content, can in principle be generated by the networks, raising concerns about model safety and jailbreak vulnerabilities. In this paper, we prove that many fundamental building blocks of modern neural architectures, such as networks with pre-layer normalization and linear-attention modules, are almost always surjective. As corollaries, widely used generative frameworks, including GPT-style transformers and diffusion models with deterministic ODE solvers, admit inverse mappings for arbitrary outputs. By studying surjectivity of these modern and commonly used neural architectures, we contribute a formalism that sheds light on their unavoidable vulnerability to a broad class of adversarial attacks.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

REACH: Interpretability-Driven Feature Identification and Architecture Compression for Multi-Channel Vehicular Channel Estimation

arXiv:2606.11857v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-channel mixed-SNR training improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation of deep learning channel estimators for IEEE 802.11p vehicular communications, yet the internal mechanism responsible for this remains unexplained. This work presents REACH (Relevance-based Explanation and Architectural Compression for cHannel estimators), a gradient-based interpretability framework that operates at two levels. Input-level attribution identifies a subset of time-frequency features consistently relevant across all evaluated channel conditions, enabling input dimensionality reduction with minimal performance loss. Filter-level attribution reveals a near-universal internal representation, providing a representational account of the observed OOD generalisation. Guided by the resulting filter taxonomy, relevance-guided architecture compression substantially reduces both the number of parameters and the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) with sub-1 dB normalised mean square error (NMSE) degradation, and OOD generalisation degrades more slowly than within-distribution accuracy under increasing compression.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2604.06464v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees, and recent work by Snell \& Griffiths reframes it as Bayesian Quadrature (BQ-CP), yielding powerful data-conditional guarantees via Dirichlet posteriors over thresholds. However, BQ-CP fundamentally requires the i.i.d. assumption. Meanwhile, weighted conformal prediction handles distribution shift via importance weights but remains frequentist, producing only point-estimate thresholds. We propose Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction (WBCP), which generalizes BQ-CP to arbitrary importance-weighted settings by replacing the uniform Dirichlet $\Dir(1,\ldots,1)$ with a weighted Dirichlet $\Dir(\neff \cdot \tilde{w}_1, \ldots, \neff \cdot \tilde{w}_n)$, where $\neff$ is Kish's effective sample size. We prove four theoretical results: (1)~$\neff$ is the unique concentration parameter matching frequentist and Bayesian variances; (2)~posterior standard deviation decays as $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$; (3)~BQ-CP's stochastic dominance guarantee extends to per-weight-profile data-conditional guarantees; (4)~the HPD threshold provides $O(1/\sqrt{\neff})$ improvement in conditional coverage. We instantiate WBCP for spatial prediction as Geographical BQ-CP, where kernel-based spatial weights yield per-location posteriors with interpretable diagnostics. Experiments on synthetic and real-world spatial datasets demonstrate that WBCP maintains coverage guarantees while providing substantially richer uncertainty information.

24.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Robust Spoofed Speech Detection via Temporal Pyramid Modeling

Spoofed speech detection is increasingly challenged by realistic synthesis, voice conversion, and replay attacks, with cross-dataset generalization remaining a major limitation. This work we propose a Temporal Pyramid Adapter that utilize parallel temporal convolutions with varying receptive fields to capture multi-scale spoofing cues, ranging from local artifacts to global prosodic irregularities. We also integrated self-supervised XLS-R representations combined with front-end adapters, including Mel, Sinc, and a Temporal Pyramid design for multi-scale temporal modeling. The proposed model is evaluated cross multiple benchmark including ASVspoof 2017, ASVspoof 2021 (DF/LA), PartialSpoof, DiffSSD, and multilingual HQ-MPSD datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that Temporal Pyramid model obtained AUC of 99.24% and a EER of 3.87% on the PartialSpoof database, which is significantly outperforming the base model and several SOTA baseline such as LCNN-BLSTM (9.87% EER) and TRACE (8.08% EER). Additionally, multilingual evaluations confirm that while spoofing artifact are independent from language. While self-supervised representations improve robustness, performance degrades under domain and language shifts, highlighting the need for better adaptation and calibration strategies.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Would you still call this Dax? Novel Visual References in VLMs and Humans

Vision-language models (VLMs), like human learners, are frequently exposed to new visual concepts, but how they map novel visual references to language after exposure remains largely underexplored, particularly when those references contradict prior knowledge from pre-training. To study this, we present the Novel Visual References Dataset (NVRD): 19,176 images spanning 90 visual concepts across different levels of visual novelty, each with up to 20 increasingly perturbed versions of the original object to probe generalization. Unlike prior work on visual augmentations of familiar concepts, NVRD comprises entirely novel, open-ended stimuli constructed from scratch, mirroring how humans encounter genuinely new concepts. We evaluate 3 open- and 2 closed-source models alongside 2,400 human judgments for direct human-model comparison, and find that (i) models struggle to acquire novel concepts in-context when they contradict prior knowledge, and (ii) while models and humans show correlated sensitivity to visual perturbations, models significantly overgeneralize, extending learned labels to stimuli that humans reject. We contribute NVRD as a corpus and benchmark for research on visual concept learning in both humans and machines.