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02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

ImageWAM: Do World Action Models Really Need Video Generation, or Just Image Editing?

作者:
Yuyang Zhang↗Wenyao Zhang↗Zekun Qi↗He Zhang↗Haitao Lin↗Jingbo Zhang↗Yao Mu↗Xiaokang Yang↗Wenjun Zeng↗Xin Jin↗

World Action Models (WAMs) commonly rely on video generation to bridge visual world modeling and robot control. However, video-based WAMs face three coupled limitations: dense multi-frame future tokens make inference costly, full video prediction spends capacity on action-irrelevant temporal and appearance details, and long-horizon future imagination may introduce errors that mislead action prediction. These issues raise a simple question: Does world action model really need video generation? We propose ImageWAM, a simple WAM framework that repurposes pretrained image editing models for robot action prediction. In contrast to video generation, image editing provides a better-matched prior: it only needs to model a target-frame transformation, focuses on action-relevant current-to-target visual differences, and grounds task instructions to localized visual changes through edit pretraining. In practice, ImageWAM does not decode the target frame at inference time; instead, it conditions a flow-matching action expert on the KV caches produced by image-editing denoising, using them as a compact world-action context. ImageWAM outperforms standard VLA baselines and matching competitive WAMs without additional policy pretraining across different simulator and real-world experiments. It also reduces FLOPs to 1/6 and latency to 1/4 of video-based WAMs. Attention analysis further shows that editing caches focus on task-relevant change regions, supporting image editing as an effective alternative to video-based world-action modeling.

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03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Large Language Model Agents Are Not Always Faithful Self-Evolvers

作者:
Weixiang Zhao↗Yingshuo Wang↗Yichen Zhang↗Yang Deng↗Yanyan Zhao↗Wanxiang Che↗Bing Qin↗Ting Liu↗

Self-evolving large language model (LLM) agents continually improve by accumulating and reusing past experience, yet it remains unclear whether they faithfully rely on that experience to guide their behavior. We present the first systematic investigation of experience faithfulness, the causal dependence of an agent's decisions on the experience it is given, in self-evolving LLM agents. Using controlled causal interventions on both raw and condensed forms of experience, we comprehensively evaluate four representative frameworks across 13 LLM backbones and 9 environments. Our analysis uncovers a striking asymmetry: while agents consistently depend on raw experience, they often disregard or misinterpret condensed experience, even when it is the only experience provided. This gap persists across single- and multi-agent configurations and across backbone scales. We trace its underlying causes to three factors: the semantic limitations of condensed content, internal processing biases that suppress experience, and task regimes where pretrained priors already suffice. These findings challenge prevailing assumptions about self-evolving methods and underscore the need for more faithful and reliable approaches to experience integration.

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04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

A matching decomposition algorithm for simulating quantum walk Hamiltonians

作者:
Mostafa Atallah↗Alvin Gonzales↗Daniel Dilley↗Igor Gaidai↗Zain H. Saleem↗Rebekah Herrman↗

arXiv:2601.11418v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this work, we present a new algorithm for generating quantum circuits that efficiently implement continuous time quantum walks on arbitrary simple sparse graphs. The algorithm, called matching decomposition, works by decomposing a continuous-time quantum walk Hamiltonian into a collection of exactly implementable Hamiltonians corresponding to matchings in the underlying graph followed by a novel graph compression algorithm that merges edges in the graph. We develop a greedy matching heuristic and a compression-aware matching heuristic, both of which can be used in the quantum circuit algorithm. Lastly, we convert the walks to a circuit and Trotterize over these components. The dynamics of the walker on each edge in the matching can be implemented in the circuit model as sequences of CX and CRx gates. We do not use Pauli decomposition when implementing walks along each matching. Furthermore, we compare greedy (compression-aware) matching decomposition to a standard Pauli-based simulation pipeline and find that greedy (compression-aware) matching decomposition consistently yields substantial resource reductions, requiring up to 43$\%$ (70\%) fewer controlled gates and up to 54$\%$ (75\%) shallower circuits than Pauli decomposition across multiple graph families. Finally, we also present examples and theoretical results for when matching decomposition can exactly simulate a continuous-time quantum walk on a graph.

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05.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Non-commutative Law of iterated logarithm

作者:
Sourav Panja↗\'Eric Ricard↗Diptesh Saha↗

arXiv:2509.22037v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We prove optimal non-commutative analogues of the classical Law of Iterated Logarithm (LIL) for both martingales and sequences of independent (non-commutative) random variables. The classical martingale version was established by Stout [Sto70b] and the independent case by Hartman-Wintner [HW41]. Our approach relies on a key exponential inequality essentially due to Randrianantoanina [Ran24] that improves that from Junge and Zeng [JZ15]. It allows to derive an optimal non-commutative Stout-type LIL just as in [Zen15], from that martingale result we then deduce a non-commutative Hartman-Wintner type LIL for independent sequences of random variables.

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06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Vulcan: Instance-specialized, Verifiable Systems Heuristics Through LLM-driven Search

作者:
Rohit Dwivedula↗Divyanshu Saxena↗Sujay Yadalam↗Eric Hayden Campbell↗Daehyeok Kim↗Aditya Akella↗

arXiv:2512.25065v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Systems resource management tasks rely primarily on hand-designed heuristics. However, growing hardware heterogeneity and workload diversity require heuristics specialized to particular deployment instances, making manual design expensive and difficult to scale. In this paper, we explore how to synthesize systems heuristics using LLMs. The main challenge is ensuring that generated heuristics execute safely, integrate correctly with the surrounding system, and still achieve strong performance. We propose Vulcan, a framework that identifies LLM-friendly interfaces that isolate core decision logic from the rest of the implementation. With Vulcan, LLM-generated code is restricted to simple stateless decision functions, while trusted runtime abstractions provide rich derived statistics for meaningful policy exploration without system-integration bugs. To ensure execution safety, LLMs synthesize heuristics in a restricted language, Anvil, that guarantees important properties by construction. We evaluate Vulcan across three well-studied domains and demonstrate up to 4.9x higher savings for spot-VM scheduling, up to 2x lower miss ratios for cache eviction, and up to 10% higher application performance for tiered-memory systems, while ensuring execution safety throughout.

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07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Class-Incremental Motion Forecasting

作者:
Nicolas Schischka↗Nikhil Gosala↗B Ravi Kiran↗Senthil Yogamani↗Abhinav Valada↗

arXiv:2603.09420v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Motion forecasting enables autonomous vehicles to anticipate scene evolution by predicting the future trajectories of dynamic agents. However, existing approaches typically assume a closed-world setting with a fixed object taxonomy and access to high-quality perception, limiting their applicability in the real world where perception is imperfect, and new object classes may emerge over time. In this work, we introduce class-incremental motion forecasting, a novel setting in which new object classes are sequentially introduced over time and future object trajectories are predicted directly from camera images. We propose the first end-to-end framework for this setting, which adapts to newly introduced classes while mitigating catastrophic forgetting of previously learned ones. Our method generates motion forecasting pseudo-labels for known classes and matches them with 2D instance masks from an open-vocabulary segmentation model. This 3D-to-2D keypoint voting mechanism filters inconsistent and overconfident predictions, while a query feature variance-based replay strategy samples informative past sequences to preserve prior knowledge. Extensive evaluations on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 show that our approach successfully preserves performance on known classes while effectively adapting to novel ones. We further demonstrate zero-shot transfer to real-world driving and show that the framework extends naturally to open- and closed-loop end-to-end class-incremental planning on nuScenes and NeuroNCAP. Code and models will be made publicly available at https://omen.cs.uni-freiburg.de.

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08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Time Series Causal Discovery via Context-Conditioned and Causality-Augmented Pretraining

作者:
Biao Ouyang↗Tengxue Zhang↗Zhihao Zhuang↗Yang Shu↗Chenjuan Guo↗Bin Yang↗

arXiv:2605.26759v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal discovery from time series is critical for many real-world applications, such as tracing the root causes of anomalies. Existing approaches typically rely on dataset-specific optimization, making it difficult to transfer their causal discovery capabilities to new time series governed by diverse causal mechanisms. In this paper, we propose PTCD, a novel Pretraining framework for Time-series Causal Discovery, which improves cross-task generalization through context-conditioned modeling and transferable causal augmentation. To model complex temporal causal dependencies, PTCD employs a dual-scale iterative attention mechanism to capture window-level causal relationships, and a Gaussian mixture with a context-level routing mechanism to handle heterogeneous exogenous distributions. To further address distribution shifts across causal graphs, PTCD adopts a pretraining paradigm on synthetic datasets that integrates intervention-based learning and a causal mixup strategy, promoting stable causal discovery and stronger generalization. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) datasets demonstrate that PTCD excels in both causal discovery and root cause identification.

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09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Mana: Dexterous Manipulation of Articulated Tools

作者:
Zhao-Heng Yin↗Guanya Shi↗Pieter Abbeel↗C. Karen Liu↗

Articulated tool manipulation remains a major challenge in dexterous robotics due to the need to coordinate internal degrees of freedom and contact-rich interactions. While prior work has largely focused on rigid objects, articulated tool use remains underexplored because of its physical complexity and the difficulty of learning functional grasping and manipulation policies. We present Mana (Manipulation Animator), a general sim-to-real framework that reinterprets dexterous manipulation as an animation problem. Inspired by computer animation, Mana employs a coarse-to-fine pipeline that transforms procedurally-generated grasp keyframes into manipulation trajectories through motion planning and reinforcement learning. The data generation process is largely automatic, requiring only a few mouse clicks to specify functional affordances (

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10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Optimizing the Cost-Quality Tradeoff of Agentic Theorem Provers in Lean

作者:
K\'ari R\"ognvaldsson↗Chenhao Sun↗Jasper Dekoninck↗Martin Vechev↗

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in workflows for generating formal proofs in Lean. These workflows often decompose problems into smaller lemmas, sample many proof attempts, and use compiler feedback to guide search. However, they can be prohibitively expensive, often spending substantial compute on attempts that ultimately fail. In this work, we address this problem with an action routing agent that consists of a data plane and a control plane. The data plane generates natural-language lemma decompositions, formalizes them in Lean, and samples proof attempts for the resulting theorem and lemma targets. The control plane observes previous failed Lean attempts, estimates both the likelihood of success and cost of another attempt, and decides whether to continue proving the current target or restart from a new breakdown. On a subset of PutnamBench, our agent decreases the cost by $28.9\%$ over a fixed-step baseline on average, preserving performance while using substantially less compute. These results suggest that failed Lean trajectories provide actionable signals for cost-aware resource allocation in agentic theorem proving.

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11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

From Digital to Physical: Digital Agents as Autonomous Coaches for Physical Intelligence

作者:
Zixing Lei↗Genjia Liu↗Yuanshuo Zhang↗Qipeng Liu↗Yuzhu Cai↗Sixiang Chen↗Jixian Wu↗Yunhong Wang↗Weixin Li↗Chuan Wen↗Bo Zhao↗Shanghang Zhang↗…

arXiv:2601.21570v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The field of Embodied AI is witnessing a rapid evolution toward general-purpose robotic systems, fueled by high-fidelity simulation and large-scale data collection. However, this scaling capability remains severely bottlenecked by a reliance on labor-intensive manual oversight from intricate reward shaping to hyperparameter tuning across heterogeneous backends. Inspired by LLMs' success in software automation and science discovery, we introduce \textsc{EmboCoach-Bench}, a benchmark evaluating the capacity of LLM agents to autonomously engineer embodied policies. Spanning 32 expert-curated RL and IL tasks, our framework posits executable code as the universal interface. We move beyond static generation to assess a dynamic closed-loop workflow, where agents leverage environment feedback to iteratively draft, debug, and optimize solutions, spanning improvements from physics-informed reward design to policy architectures such as diffusion policies. Extensive evaluations yield three critical insights: (1) autonomous agents can qualitatively surpass human-engineered baselines by 26.5\% in average success rate; (2) agentic workflow with environment feedback effectively strengthens policy development and substantially narrows the performance gap between open-source and proprietary models; and (3) agents exhibit self-correction capabilities for pathological engineering cases, successfully resurrecting task performance from near-total failures through iterative simulation-in-the-loop debugging. Ultimately, this work establishes a foundation for self-evolving embodied intelligence, accelerating the paradigm shift from labor-intensive manual tuning to scalable, autonomous engineering in embodied AI field.

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12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Hand-4DGS: Feed-Forward 3D Gaussian Splatting for 4D Hand Reconstruction from Egocentric Videos

作者:
Jeongmin Bae↗Seoha Kim↗Marc Pollefeys↗Mahdi Rad↗Youngjung Uh↗Taein Kwon↗

Dynamic 3D hand reconstruction from egocentric videos is essential for next-generation computing platforms such as AR/VR and AI glasses. Despite its importance, most prior works focus either on multi-view 3D hand reconstruction or on 4D human body reconstruction. Egocentric 4D hand reconstruction remains challenging due to fast head motion, rapid hand dynamics, severe occlusions, and inherent ambiguity from single-view observations. To address these challenges, we introduce Hand-4DGS, the first feed-forward framework for reconstructing dynamic 4D hands directly from egocentric videos, enabling both fast (~60 FPS) inference and strong generalization. Our approach incorporates a mesh-guided representation for structural priors and temporal convolutions to model dynamic motion. We evaluate our framework on two challenging egocentric datasets, H2O and ARCTIC, and demonstrate significant improvements over baselines. Our method benefits from the generalization capability of feed-forward networks and effective 2D image supervision through Gaussian splatting, without requiring expensive 3D hand pose ground-truth annotations.

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13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Solving Nonequilibrium Dynamics via Influence Matrix Bootstrap: Floquet-PXP Model

作者:
Xiao-Yang Yang↗He-Ran Wang↗Zhong Wang↗

arXiv:2606.19430v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Studies of integrable systems have profoundly deepened the fundamental understanding of quantum many-body physics. While equilibrium properties such as ground states and thermodynamics can often be characterized efficiently, accurately characterizing nonequilibrium integrable dynamics remains a significant challenge. Here, we address this problem in the "Rule 201" quantum cellular automaton, an integrable Trotterization of the PXP Hamiltonian. Using the tensor-network approach of the influence matrix, we develop local conditions called generalized zipper conditions that allow exact solutions of local dynamics. We also introduce a numerical bootstrap method for solving influence matrices with finite but relatively large bond dimensions. This uncovers a rich landscape of nonequilibrium behavior exhibiting initial-state dependence. As an example, we investigate the fate of persistent oscillating dynamics under local non-integrable perturbations, and present analytical results for non-thermal relaxation constrained by conservation laws. We also obtain numerically exact results for entanglement growth across a broad class of initial states. Furthermore, from an information-theoretic perspective, we identify a refined structure of multitime correlations termed the hidden Markov order: the memory encoded in the dynamics separates into finite-length and long-range distributed components, which becomes transparent in an exact split-index matrix-product-state representation of the influence matrix. Our approach enables unified investigations of nonthermalizing and thermalizing regimes of nonequilibrium dynamics within a single analytically tractable model, and can be tested experimentally in state-of-the-art quantum simulators such as Rydberg atom arrays.

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14.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction

作者:
Yu-Hsueh Fang↗Chia-Yen Lee↗

arXiv:2605.00432v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Online conformal prediction must balance fast adaptation to distribution shift against stable coverage: feedback-driven methods react quickly but become volatile, while strongly discounted Bayesian methods lag and inflate intervals at tight coverage. We introduce State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction (SA-BCP), which forms the predictive quantile as a gated convex combination of long-term temporal inertia and local spatial evidence from a kernel density estimate, controlled by a single interpretable evidence threshold $K$. We establish three results: (i) asymptotic marginal validity of the resulting intervals; (ii) a closed-form expression for the MSE-optimal threshold, $K^*_{\mathrm{MSE}}=\alpha(1-\alpha)/M^{\mathcal{T}}$, trading the coverage-indicator (Bernoulli) variance against the temporal structural bias $M^{\mathcal{T}}$; and (iii) a rolling-origin procedure for selecting $K$ online – consistent under stationarity, with $O(\sqrt{T\log N})$ regret against the best fixed $K$ and, for a segmented variant, a sublinear dynamic-regret bound under bounded drift. Across four financial-volatility and weather datasets, three target coverage levels, and eight baselines (including the strongest recent conditional-quantile methods, SPCI and KOWCPI), SA-BCP attains at-or-above-nominal coverage in most settings while producing substantially sharper intervals – up to roughly $3\times$ lower Winkler score than discounted Bayesian CP at the tightest coverage – and a coverage-matched audit confirms these efficiency gains are not an artifact of under-coverage. We disclose one principal limitation: a volatility-specialized conformal-GARCH competitor remains more efficient on its home volatility-base series, though it does not transfer across domains.

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15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Feynman Kac Reweighted Schrödinger Bridge Matching for Surface-Based Tau PET Harmonization

作者:
Jianwei Zhang↗Xinyu Nie↗Jiaxin Yue↗Yonggang Shi↗

arXiv:2606.17420v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tau PET imaging is central to tracking Alzheimer's disease progression, but systematic differences between scanners, protocols, and radiotracers across sites introduce nonbiological variability that inflates biomarker variance, reduces sensitivity to disease effects, and can bias downstream clinical assessments. Harmonization methods aim to remove these site-induced shifts while preserving biologically meaningful signal, yet existing approaches struggle when source and target cohorts differ in subgroup composition, risking conflation of site effects with biological variation such as tau-positivity status. We propose the Feynman Kac Reweighted Schröodinger Bridge Matching (FKRSBM) model to address this problem. Rather than routing data through a Gaussian noise prior as in diffusion-based methods, FKRSBM learns a direct stochastic transport process between source and target distributions via entropy-regularized optimal transport. To enforce biologically consistent transport, FKRSBM incorporates a subgroup-aware endpoint proposal derived from a Feynman Kac reweighting of the reference bridge measure, implemented entirely through stratified importance sampling at the data level and requiring no changes to the underlying bridge-matching solver or network architecture. For surface-based neuroimaging, FKRSBM employs a spherical convolutional backbone operating on cortical meshes to perform vertex-level harmonization. We evaluate the method on tau PET SUVR maps, harmonizing PI-2620 data from the HABS-HD cohort into the AV-1451 domain of ADNI. Compared against ComBat, CycleGAN, a diffusion-based method (DF), and unregularized Diffusion Schröodinger Bridge Matching (DSBM), FKRSBM achieves superior distributional alignment, reduced tau-positivity sign mismatch, stronger APOE subgroup alignment, and improved downstream disease classification performance.

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16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Protean Compiler: An Agile Framework to Drive Fine-grain Phase Ordering

作者:
Amir H. Ashouri↗Shayan Shirahmad Gale Bagi↗Kavin Satheeskumar↗Tejas Srikanth↗Jonathan Zhao↗Ibrahim Saidoun↗Ziwen Wang↗Bryan Chan↗Tomasz S. Czajkowski↗

The phase ordering problem has been a long-standing challenge since the late 1970s, yet it remains an open problem due to having a vast optimization space and an unbounded nature, making it an open-ended problem without a finite solution, one can limit the scope by reducing the number and the length of optimizations. Traditionally, such locally optimized decisions are made by hand-coded algorithms tuned for a small number of benchmarks, often requiring significant effort to be retuned when the benchmark suite changes. In the past 20 years, Machine Learning has been employed to construct performance models to improve the selection and ordering of compiler optimizations, however, the approaches are not baked into the compiler seamlessly and never materialized to be leveraged at a fine-grained scope of code segments. This paper presents Protean Compiler: An agile framework to enable LLVM with built-in phase-ordering capabilities at a fine-grained scope. The framework also comprises a complete library of more than 140 handcrafted static feature collection methods at varying scopes, and the experimental results showcase speedup gains of up to 4.1% on average and up to 15.7% on select Cbench applications wrt LLVM's O3 by just incurring a few extra seconds of build time on Cbench. Additionally, Protean compiler allows for an easy integration with third-party ML frameworks and other Large Language Models, and two applications of this two-step optimization show a gain of 10.1\% and 8.5\% speedup w.r.t. -O3 on CBench's Susan and Jpeg applications. Protean compiler is seamlessly integrated into LLVM and can be used as a new, enhanced, full-fledged compiler. We plan to release the project to the open-source community in the near future.

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17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LLM-Assisted Stance Detection in Scientific Discourse: A Test Case in Bayesian Cognitive Science

作者:
Eyup Engin Kucuk↗Tarik Kelestemur↗\"Omer Da\u{g}lar Tanrikulu↗

Qualitative coding is central to social science, but expert annotation is difficult to scale. LLMs offer a possible extension, yet require careful validation when the target construct is interpretive, theoretically loaded, and only indirectly expressed. We study this problem in a difficult case: detecting whether authors treat Bayesian models as descriptions of mental and neural mechanisms (realism) or as useful mathematical tools (instrumentalism). Our method combines a theory-driven codebook, expert-coded reference annotations, a diagnostic-gated prompt-optimization search yielding a shared zero-shot prompt for three frontier LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3 Pro Preview), and multi-rater reliability analysis. The final prompt achieved a held-out combined reliability score of 0.76 (harmonic mean of ICC = 0.79 and $\alpha$ = 0.74), with all diagnostics satisfied. Deployed on 6,858 quotes from 210 articles, the three LLMs reached substantial quote-level agreement (ICC = 0.80; $\alpha$ = 0.76; combined = 0.78) and near-perfect article-level rank stability ($r$ = 0.96-0.97 across rater pairs). The corpus was predominantly weakly realist, but article-level stances were rarely uniform: only 1.4% of articles used a single band, while 59.5% spanned four or more. Low-level perception/motor articles scored 8.8 Realism points higher than high-level cognition articles ($p < .001$, $d = 0.60$), quantifying a long-held qualitative intuition. We present this as an expert-led case study; the framework is intended to generalize to similar theoretically demanding tasks, not to all qualitative analysis.

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18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fundamental Limitations of QAOA on Constrained Problems and a Route to Exponential Enhancement

作者:
Chinonso Onah↗Kristel Michielsen↗

arXiv:2511.17259v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study fundamental limitations of the generic Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) on constrained problems where valid solutions form a low dimensional manifold inside the Boolean hypercube, and we present a provable route to exponential improvements via constraint embedding. Focusing on permutation constrained objectives, we show that the standard generic QAOA ansatz, with a transverse field mixer and diagonal r local cost, faces an intrinsic feasibility bottleneck: even after angle optimization, circuits whose depth grows at most sublinearly with n cannot raise the total probability mass on the feasible manifold much above the uniform baseline suppressed by the size of the full Hilber space. Against this envelope we introduce a minimal constraint enhanced kernel (CE QAOA) that operates directly inside a product one hot subspace and mixes with a block local XY Hamiltonian. For permutation constrained problems, we prove an angle robust, depth matched exponential enhancement where the ratio between the feasible mass from CE QAOA and generic QAOA grows exponentially in $n^2$ for all depths up to a linear fraction of n, under a mild polynomial growth condition on the interaction hypergraph. Thanks to the problem algorithm co design in the kernel construction, the techniques and guarantees extend beyond permutations to a broad class of NP-Hard constrained optimization problems.

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19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Beyond Defensive Reporting: Machine Learning for Active Anti-Money Laundering Control in Insurance

作者:
Dara Goldar↗Geir Kjetil Ferkingstad Sandve↗Martin Jullum↗

arXiv:2606.16663v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Money laundering through insurance claims poses a threat to insurers both through fraudulent payouts and reputational and regulatory risk. Despite this, little research has examined how such laundering can be prevented. This paper examines whether machine learning can help insurers flag suspicious claims before payout, shifting the focus from passive reporting to active prevention. Using production data from a major Norwegian insurer, we train gradient-boosted decision tree models to detect claims later reported to authorities for suspected money laundering. Because fraud and laundering may share behavioural patterns, we also examine whether insurance fraud labels can serve as an auxiliary training signal. We compare different learning setups using the Budget-Weighted Capture Rate, a metric introduced in this paper to measure how many laundering cases are captured when only a small share of claims can be manually reviewed. The results show that incorporating fraud-related investigation labels substantially improves laundering detection. The best-performing model captures nearly two-thirds of laundering cases within the top-ranked 2 to 6 percent of claims selected for investigation. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study of machine learning for money laundering detection in insurance claims.

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20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Robust Local Polynomial Regression with Similarity Kernels

作者:
Yaniv Shulman↗

arXiv:2501.10729v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Local Polynomial Regression (LPR) is a widely used nonparametric method for modeling complex relationships due to its flexibility and simplicity. It estimates a regression function by fitting low-degree polynomials to localized subsets of the data, weighted by proximity. However, traditional LPR is sensitive to outliers and high-leverage points, which can significantly affect estimation accuracy. This paper revisits the kernel function used to compute regression weights and proposes a novel framework that incorporates both predictor and response variables in the weighting mechanism. The focus of this work is a conditional density kernel that robustly estimates weights by mitigating the influence of outliers through localized density estimation. The proposed method is implemented in Python and is publicly available at https://github.com/yaniv-shulman/rsklpr. The population analysis quantifies the bias induced by density-based robust weighting, and the reported experiments show lower empirical bias than iterative robust LOWESS while remaining competitive with standard LOWESS. This advancement provides a promising extension to traditional LPR, opening new possibilities for robust regression applications.

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21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Free-Placement Optimization of Ground Station Locations for Low-Earth Orbit Satellites

作者:
Grace Ra Kim↗Duncan Eddy↗Vedant Srinivas↗Mykel J. Kochenderfer↗

arXiv:2606.12667v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapidly expanding low Earth orbit satellite constellations are placing increasing demands on terrestrial ground networks, motivating the development of more efficient ground station network designs. Current approaches select sites from predefined locations, limiting optimization to existing infrastructure and constraining performance. In contrast, free-placement optimization operates over a continuous spatial domain on Earth, broadening the search space and allowing higher-throughput configurations at the cost of potentially requiring new infrastructure deployment. In this work, we introduce SCORE (Sequential Cyclic Optimization via Refinement & Evaluation), a two-stage free-placement method for ground station design. SCORE combines sequential coordinate selection with cyclic refinement to manage high-dimensionality, non-convexity, and local minima that challenge global optimizers. We benchmark SCORE against one-shot methods such as differential evolution (DE) and integer programming approaches using locations from Kongsberg Satellite Services and the World Teleport Association. Tests across two commercial Earth observation constellations (Capella Space and ICEYE) and one synthetic Walker-Star constellation show that SCORE requires up to 5x fewer function evaluations to converge relative to DE while improving downlink throughput by up to 13%. Compared to fixed-site methods, unconstrained SCORE achieves up to 15% greater total downlink, establishing a strong empirical performance benchmark for flexible placement; infrastructure-constrained SCORE retains over 92% of this gain while restricting placement to within proximity of existing fiber and power infrastructure. We also explore trade-offs between expanding existing stations and deploying new sites, informing future ground network design for operational constellations.

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22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

The Impossibility of Eliciting Latent Knowledge

作者:
Korbinian Friedl↗Francis Rhys Ward↗Paul Yushin Rapoport↗Tom Everitt↗Jonathan Richens↗

arXiv:2606.12268v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Advanced AI systems have extensive knowledge of their environments; in fact, their knowledge may (far) exceed that of their developers or users. Consequently, a desirable property for an AI system is that it is honest – that it accurately reports its beliefs about the world. Designing an AI system to be honest may be difficult, especially if we want to ask it questions about latent variables in the environment – variables which are hidden from the human interacting with it. This gives rise to the problem of eliciting latent knowledge (ELK): the problem of training an AI agent to honestly report its beliefs. In this paper, we make ELK formally precise using Causal Influence Diagrams (CIDs). CIDs can be used to describe the relationship between an agent's training environment and its subjective representation of the world. We use CIDs to formalise the distinction between observable and latent variables, to specify what exactly it means for an agent to be honest, and to formally define goal misgeneralisation. We show that, under certain circumstances, developers can incentivise an agent to honestly answer questions by providing correct feedback during training. However, a natural, but undesirable, way for an agent to generalise is to provide answers which humans would evaluate as true, rather than honest answers. We prove an impossibility theorem stating: There is no feedback-based training strategy that depends only on agent behaviour and with certainty produces an honest agent, even if feedback is perfect during training.

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23.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

GeoCFNet: Geometry-Aware Confidence Field Network for Robot-Assisted Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection

作者:
Rui Tang↗Guankun Wang↗Long Bai↗Haochen Yin↗Huxin Gao↗Jiewen Lai↗Jiazheng Wang↗Hongliang Ren↗

Advanced surgical robotics has made robot-assisted endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) a promising approach for the en-bloc resection of large lesions, with the potential to reduce recurrence and improve long-term outcomes. However, the technical complexity and risk of complications in ESD demand stable and precise visual guidance to maintain an accurate dissection corridor and a safe tissue margin. Dense confidence fields provide an effective representation for this purpose by describing both the preferred dissection region and its spatial transition to surrounding tissue. However, reliable confidence field estimation remains challenging in dynamic endoscopic scenes due to smoke, specular highlights, tissue deformation, weak texture, and the thin geometric structure of the target region. To address these challenges, we formulate dissection guidance as a geometry-aware confidence field estimation problem and propose GeoCFNet, a geometry-aware confidence field network built on a pretrained DINOv3 backbone. GeoCFNet integrates a Token-Differentiated Fusion module to aggregate class-token context with dense patch representations, a SegFormer decoder for confidence regression, and Geometry-Aware Spatial Regularization (GASR) to preserve spatial coherence and local geometric transitions. Experimental results show that GeoCFNet achieves RMSE 0.0480, PSNR 27.1995, SSIM 0.3397, and CC 0.2466, indicating accurate and geometrically stable confidence field estimation for robot-assisted ESD guidance.

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24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

OrthoReg: Orthogonal Regularization for Hybrid Symbolic-Neural Dynamical Systems

作者:
Till Richter↗Niki Kilbertus↗

arXiv:2606.19145v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Dynamical systems are fundamental to modeling the natural world, yet modeling them involves a persistent trade-off: manually prescribed mechanistic models are interpretable by design but often overly simplistic and misspecified; in contrast, flexible data-driven neural methods lack physical insight. Hybrid modeling aims for the best of both worlds by combining a prescribed or symbolic, physics-based component with a flexible neural network. A critical challenge, however, is that the neural component may relearn mechanistic parts, yielding redundant and uninterpretable models, especially when the symbolic structure itself is discovered from data. Existing methods based on standard $L^2$ regularization rely on a projection argument that breaks when the symbolic component is learned through sparse discovery, allowing the neural augmentation to overlap with symbolic structure. We introduce OrthoReg (Orthogonal Regularization), which directly penalizes overlap between the symbolic and neural components, preventing symbolic structure from being absorbed by the neural residual. This yields a complementary decomposition: the symbolic part captures what the library can express, and the neural part captures what remains. On benchmark dynamical systems with partial library mismatch, OrthoReg improves symbolic recovery and out-of-distribution behavior.

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25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Exit-and-Join Dynamics for Decentralized Coalition Formation

作者:
Quanyan Zhu↗

arXiv:2606.19683v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper studies coalition formation as a decentralized dynamical process driven by unilateral exit-and-join decisions. Agents evaluate local moves using the Aumann-Dreze value, so payoffs are computed within the agent's current coalition rather than through a globally negotiated coalition structure. The resulting model links cooperative payoff allocation with noncooperative best-response behavior: a terminal partition is precisely a coalition structure with no admissible, individually profitable exit-and-join deviation. We establish equilibrium characterizations, identify conditions under which the dynamics admit scalar Lyapunov or exact-potential representations, and analyze how switching and acceptance costs shape local stability. Numerical experiments test finite-time stabilization, cost sensitivity, and a special convex-game benchmark.

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