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01.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

ED3R: Energy-Aware Distributed Disaster Detection Enabled by Cooperative Robotic Agents

Robotics are expected to support environmental monitoring and natural disaster management, where decisions must be made under uncertainty, resource limitations, and strict operational constraints. In critical missions, such as wildfires, robotic agents must not only identify hazardous events with sufficient confidence, but also manage the energy cost and time until detection. This paper introduces ED3R, an energy-aware distributed framework for wildfire detection under uncertainty. ED3R enables hierarchical cooperative decision-making between a robot and a remote controller. The remote controller decides upon the robot's motion, while the robot senses the environment and decides where to execute the wildfire detection (onboard or remotely) and how. The common goal is to detect wildfires with a required confidence while minimizing the energy consumed by any robot operation. ED3R further integrates mechanisms to avoid nearby obstacles, prevent redundant exploration, enable adaptive early mission completion, and ensure feasibility through a custom penalty function. ED3R also introduces a forward-looking capability, enabled through distributed neural regression models that allow the agents to anticipate the future by evaluating candidate strategies before execution. The framework is evaluated through realistic robotics simulations, ablation studies, and baseline comparisons. Overall, ED3R achieves a mission success rate of up to 97.18%. Especially in the most demanding missions, it reduces energy consumption by up to 36.4% and detects wildfires up to 41% faster than baselines.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

Contour-Constrained Deformable Registration with Parameter Characterization for Head and Neck Surgical Guidance

With 890,000 annual new cases globally, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma has one of the highest recurrence rates among solid malignancies. Although frozen section analysis is the standard of care for intraoperative margin assessment, accurately relocating detected positive margins on the resection bed remains challenging due to imprecise alignment between resected specimens and their resection bed, compounded by post-resection mucosal tissue shrinkage. We present a biomechanics-driven deformable registration framework that corrects post-resection tissue deformation to provide intraoperative guidance. Our approach registers 3D specimen meshes to intraoperative resection bed point clouds using a deformable registration approach based on regularized Kelvinlet basis functions. The registration matches surface point clouds, fiducial landmarks, and boundary contour constraints that directly penalize perpendicular distance-to-agreement between specimen and resection bed boundaries. Across nine specimens from skin, buccal mucosa, and tongue sites, the overall mean target registration error was $11.11 \pm 4.07$ mm using rigid registration, which decreased to $8.20 \pm 2.68$ mm (26.19\% reduction) using deformable registration without contour constraint. The proposed contour-constrained deformable registration further reduced the error to $5.62 \pm 2.28$ mm, a 49.41\% reduction relative to rigid registration. We observed the largest reduction in the most clinically challenging tongue specimens. We also performed a systematic two-stage parameter search to characterize the relative importance of surface alignment, fiducial correspondences, contour constraint, and strain energy regularization. This search revealed that contour weighting dominates registration accuracy for tissue types with large lateral deformation, while the algorithm operates over a broad range of parameter combinations.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

When Top-1 Fails: Calibrating LoRA Monitors for Masked Diffusion LMs

Discrete diffusion language model (DLM) fine-tuning inherits inexpensive diagnostics from denoising-time confidence monitors, but their PEFT-training meaning is untested. We test top-1 argmax concentration as a collapse warning. Across 816 LoRA/PEFT configurations from three DLM families, the warning fires for every configuration while logs record 0/816 actual collapses at the 200 step horizon, giving zero precision. The cause is pre-equilibrium saturation: top-1 concentration is already high before optimization and quickly becomes insensitive to final training stability. We then evaluate max LoRA gradient norm, a parameter-side signal that samples gradient routing rather than token concentration. On a pooled held-out LLaDA-family split, a train-optimized threshold identifies top-decile final-loss configurations with precision 0.68 and F1=0.79, above the all-positive top-1 baseline even at the lower split-bootstrap confidence bound. Autoregressive controls and cross-family threshold failures bound the result to short-horizon DLM-LoRA inspection rather than a universal collapse detector. Workflow: drop top-1 as a PEFT alarm, log max-gradient early in training, and calibrate thresholds per DLM family before routing runs for inspection.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

The Pragmatic Persona: Discovering LLM Persona through Bridging Inference

Large Language Models (LLMs) reveal inherent and distinctive personas through dialogue. However, most existing persona discovery approaches rely on surface-level lexical or stylistic cues, treating dialogue as a flat sequence of tokens and failing to capture the deeper discourse-level structures that sustain persona consistency. To address this limitation, we propose a novel analytical framework that interprets LLM dialogue through bridging inference – implicit conceptual relations that connect utterances via shared world knowledge and discourse coherence. By modeling these relations as structured knowledge graphs, our approach captures latent semantic links that govern how LLMs organize meaning across turns, enabling persona discovery at the level of discourse coherence rather than surface realizations. Experimental results across multiple reasoning backbones and target LLMs, ranging from small-scale models to 80B-parameter systems, demonstrate that bridging-inference graphs yield significantly stronger semantic coherence and more stable persona identification than frequency or style-based baselines. These results show that persona traits are consistently encoded in the structural organization of discourse rather than isolated lexical patterns. This work presents a systematic framework for probing, extracting, and visualizing latent LLM personas through the lens of Cognitive Discourse Theory, bridging computational linguistics, cognitive semantics, and persona reasoning in large language models. Codes are available at https://github.com/JiSoo-Yang/Persona_Bridging.git

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Urban Heat MiniCubes: An AI-Ready dataset for urban heat research

arXiv:2606.11534v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Urban heat is amplified by impermeable surfaces and heterogeneous built environments, yet street-level variability remains difficult to quantify because multi-sensor observations are rarely available in consistent, analysis-ready form at the necessary spatiotemporal scales. We present "Urban Heat MiniCubes," a publicly available, FAIR-oriented dataset designed for machine learning applications in urban heat research. The dataset provides harmonized 90 x 90 km gridded data cubes for 48 cities in the Western Hemisphere spanning 2022-2023, with variables reprojected and collocated to a common grid to reduce preprocessing (e.g., reprojection, resampling, and spatiotemporal alignment). Urban Heat MiniCubes includes two complementary modalities: (i) higher-spatial-resolution, lower-frequency observations from Landsat 8/9 (e.g., surface reflectances) and Sentinel-1 (e.g., synthetic aperture radar backscatter), and (ii) higher-temporal-frequency, coarser observations from GOES-R (e.g., longwave infrared brightness temperatures) and a microwave land surface temperature product. We document variables and metadata and provide technical assessment using inter-variable analyses and autoencoder-based reconstruction-error summaries across pixel classes (e.g., water and cloud). Potential use cases and limitations are also discussed.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Least-Action-Guided Diffusion for Physical Extrapolation

arXiv:2606.11277v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable extrapolation remains a central challenge for generative models in computational physics, because models trained over finite ranges of time, parameters, or geometries may produce physically inconsistent predictions outside the training distribution. We introduce a least-action-principle-guided diffusion, LAPG, a framework that promotes physical consistency during inference rather than relying solely on constraints imposed during training. The method combines a conditional score-based diffusion model with an action-derived physical guidance score. In the first stage, the learned score model generates an in-distribution proposal; in the second, an action-based variational prior refines this proposal toward the target out-of-distribution condition. This formulation turns the principle of least action into a differentiable inference-time correction mechanism and provides an alternative to pointwise residual penalties that often require empirical loss balancing. We evaluate LAPG on representative ordinary- and partial-differential-equation systems, including free fall, conservative and dissipative spring-mass dynamics, interacting point vortices, and potential flow over parameterized airfoils. In temporal, parameter, and geometric extrapolation tests, LAPG reduces phase drift, preserves dissipative decay, captures vortex motion, and improves the lift response of airfoil flows compared with training-time physics-informed baselines.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

WorldLines: Benchmarking and Modeling Long-Horizon Stateful Embodied Agents

arXiv:2606.18847v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: To assist humans over extended periods in real homes, embodied agents must remember user routines, world states, and past interactions. Existing long-term memory benchmarks mainly evaluate language-centric retrieval and question answering, while embodied benchmarks often focus on short-horizon task execution without testing long-term memory use in dynamic environments. We introduce WorldLines, a project-driven benchmark for long-horizon embodied household assistance. It constructs temporally extended household traces with dialogues, actions, execution feedback, object and device state changes, and converts them into evidence-linked samples for Memory QA and Embodied Task Planning. We further propose ObsMem, an observer-grounded memory framework that maintains visibility-aware memories and action-native state trails for state-aware decisions. Experiments reveal persistent challenges in partial observability, overwritten world states, and translating long-term memory into embodied plans, while ObsMem offers a stronger reference architecture for this setting.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

KCSAT-ML: Probing Reasoning Models with Nationwide-Cohort Human Difficulty

Math reasoning benchmarks have proliferated, yet most lack a per-item difficulty signal grounded in actual human performance. We introduce KCSAT-ML, a decade (2014-2025) of Korean College Scholastic Ability Test (KCSAT; Suneung) mathematics: 664 problems with a 339-item core set carrying official per-item error rates from nationwide cohorts of hundreds of thousands of examinees. We pair the benchmark with Difficulty-aligned Reasoning Gain (DRG): a score-orthogonal metric that asks whether a model's mistakes concentrate on the items humans found hard, or on items humans found easy. Together they expose, across a wide range of VLMs (and LLMs via OCR), three patterns: (i) low-budget accuracy collapses on the high-human-error tail at every model size; (ii) test-time scaling (TTS) raises token use roughly linearly with cohort error rate, while accuracy gains follow a non-monotonic curve; (iii) within a single family, TTS flips between anti-scaling on the hardest items and overthinking on easier ones – two faces of the same alignment failure. On DRG, models with near-identical accuracy can sit at near-opposite values: one model gets wrong what humans also find hard, while another solves the hardest items yet fails on items humans find easy – a contrast that aggregate accuracy hides. Our code and dataset builder will be open-sourced at https://github.com/naver-ai/KCSAT-ML.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Q-Fold: Query-Aware Focus-Context Spatio-Temporal Folding for Long Video Understanding

Long-video understanding remains challenging for multimodal large language models, because temporally extended videos often contain thousands of frames and are therefore expensive to process exhaustively. Existing methods usually construct compact visual inputs from long videos under a limited visual budget. However, most of them still follow a frame-centric paradigm and apply similar representations to retained content regardless of its importance. This makes it difficult to preserve both high-fidelity visual evidence and broad temporal coverage. To address this issue, we propose Q-Fold, a training-free input construction framework for long-video understanding. Instead of treating isolated frames as the basic modeling unit, Q-Fold operates on contiguous temporal segments and constructs a heterogeneous Focus–Context representation under query guidance. Query-relevant segments are preserved as high-fidelity Focus Frames, while less relevant segments are folded into chronology-preserving contextual layouts. In this way, Q-Fold preserves critical visual evidence and broad temporal coverage, while better maintaining local temporal continuity within short segments. Experiments on four long-video benchmarks with multiple Video-MLLMs show that Q-Fold consistently improves performance without increasing the input budget. Notably, it achieves gains of up to 9.1 percentage points on an ultra-long video benchmark. Code will be made publicly available.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Probing PbTe-Pb nanowire devices with radio-frequency reflectometry

arXiv:2606.04544v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We report the implementation of radio-frequency (rf) reflectometry on selective-area-grown PbTe-Pb nanowire devices on a CdTe substrate. These nanowires are predicted to host Majorana zero modes. We demonstrate the compatibility of the rf technique, including both resistive and capacitive sensing, with these nanowires. The effect of dielectric loss from the CdTe substrate is quantitatively characterized. Furthermore, the feasibility of rf reflectometry is verified under finite magnetic fields where zero-energy modes can emerge. Our results establish the fast control of PbTe quantum devices, paving the way for their applications in topological quantum computation.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Semi-Supervised Noise Adaptation: Transferring Knowledge from Noise Domain

arXiv:2606.00558v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Transfer learning aims to facilitate the learning of a target domain by transferring knowledge from a source domain. The source domain typically contains semantically meaningful samples (*e.g.*, images) to facilitate effective knowledge transfer. However, a recent study observes that the noise domain constructed from simple distributions (*e.g.*, Gaussian distributions) can serve as a surrogate source domain in the semi-supervised setting, where only a small proportion of target samples are labeled while most remain unlabeled. Based on this surprising observation, we formulate a novel problem termed *Semi-Supervised Noise Adaptation* (SSNA), which aims to leverage a synthetic noise domain to improve the generalization of the target domain. To address this problem, we first establish a generalization bound characterizing the effect of the noise domain on generalization, based on which we propose a Noise Adaptation Framework (NAF). Extensive experiments demonstrate that NAF effectively leverages the noise domain to tighten the generalization bound of the target domain, leading to improved performance. The codes are available at https://github.com/AIResearch-Group/SSNA.

13.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Real-time pseudo entropy and modular-Hamiltonian correlations

arXiv:2606.14208v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pseudo entropy is a complex-valued generalization of entanglement entropy defined from a reduced transition matrix. We study the pseudo entropy associated with a real-time transition matrix between an initial pure state and its unitary time evolution. For a subsystem $A$, we show that the short-time behavior of real-time pseudo entropy is governed by the correlation between the physical Hamiltonian $H$ and the modular Hamiltonian $K_A=-\log\rho_A$ of the initial reduced state, $ S_A(t,0)=S_A(0)-it \langle K_A(H-\langle H\rangle)\rangle + \mathcal{O}(t^2)$. For Hermitian dynamics, the initial imaginary response is controlled by the symmetrized covariance of $H$ and $K_A$ with an overall minus sign, while the initial real response is governed by their commutator. Thus the imaginary part of real-time pseudo entropy is not merely a branch artifact: it is a time-oriented modular response generated by the correlation between microscopic time evolution and subsystem coarse graining. We clarify the relation of this result to the known first law of pseudo entropy, derive an all-order expression in a Schmidt-diagonal model, recover thermal pseudo entropy as a special case, illustrate the covariance/commutator decomposition in a two-qubit model, and confirm the covariance response in transverse-field Ising-chain quenches, including a finite-size study of a modular susceptibility near the Ising critical region. We discuss how this amplitude-level oriented response can be related to ordinary entropy production, and also give a concrete $\mathcal{PT}$-symmetric toy-model illustration of the non-Hermitian extension.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

UR-BERT: Scaling Text Encoders for Massively Multilingual TTS Through Universal Romanization and Speech Token Prediction

We propose UR-BERT, a Romanized transcription-based text-to-speech (TTS) encoder for massively multilingual TTS systems. Conventional grapheme-to-phoneme (G2P)-based approaches are limited to around 100 languages due to the availability of reliable G2P resources. In contrast, UR-BERT scales to 495 languages by unifying diverse writing systems into a shared Romanization representation. To further enhance phonetic fidelity and text-speech alignment, we introduce a speech token prediction objective during training, which encourages the encoder to learn speech-aware phonetic representations in a data-efficient manner. Experiments show that TTS systems built on UR-BERT consistently outperform recent text encoder baselines across a wide range of languages and resource conditions, and demonstrate strong generalization to unseen languages.

15.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-25

MVTrack4Gen: Multi-View Point Tracking as Geometric Supervision for 4D Video Generation

Synthesizing a novel-view video from a monocular reference video along a target camera trajectory requires both geometric consistency and motion fidelity with respect to the reference video. Existing methods based on explicit 3D representations are limited by the accuracy of off-the-shelf reconstruction modules, which often produce inaccurate geometry for dynamic objects in monocular videos. In contrast, camera-conditioning-only methods can achieve high visual quality but often struggle to preserve geometric and motion consistency. In this work, we introduce MVTrack4Gen (Multi-View point Tracking for Novel-View Generation), a motion-aware training framework that leverages multi-view point tracking as an additional geometric and motion supervision signal for camera-conditioning-only novel-view video diffusion models. Our key finding is that specific attention layers encode strong correspondence cues, where query features attend to key features at geometrically corresponding locations across views and over time, and the misalignment of these correspondences causes motion inconsistency. Based on this observation, we route these features into an auxiliary multi-view tracking head and jointly train the diffusion model with a point-tracking objective. By explicitly strengthening these motion-aware correspondences, MVTrack4Gen improves existing models to better follow the motion in the reference view and maintain cross-view geometric consistency. Across diverse benchmarks, our method achieves state-of-the-art geometric consistency and competitive camera accuracy.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Grounding Multi-Hop Reasoning in Structural Causal Models via Group Relative Policy Optimization

arXiv:2605.01482v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Multi-Hop Fact Verification requires complex reasoning across disparate evidence, posing significant challenges for Large Language Models , which may suffer from hallucinations and fractured logical chains. Existing methods, while improving transparency via Chain-of-Thought , often lack explicit modeling of the structural dependencies between evidence and claims. In this work, we introduce an SCM-inspired framework that grounds reasoning in explicit directed dependency graphs, treating verification as a constructive structural reasoning process rather than full causal inference with interventions or counterfactual semantics. We empirically identify an "inverted U-shaped" correlation between reasoning-chain length and accuracy, revealing that excessive structural complexity can degrade performance. To address this, we propose a rule-based reinforcement learning strategy using Group Relative Policy Optimization. This approach dynamically optimizes the trade-off between structural depth and conciseness. Extensive experiments on HoVer and EX-FEVER demonstrate that our SCM-GRPO framework outperforms strong baselines while producing more traceable reasoning structures for complex fact verification.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Response kinetic uncertainty relation for Markovian open quantum systems

arXiv:2501.04895v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Response uncertainty relations in stochastic thermodynamics extend precision bounds to the sensitivity of observables under external perturbations. Here we derive a quantum response kinetic uncertainty relation for continuously monitored Markovian open quantum systems in the steady state of the Lindblad master equation. The response precision of a measured trajectory observable is bounded by two contributions: the conventional quantum dynamical activity and a perturbation-induced intersubspace transition term. The latter is absent in the classical limit and captures a genuinely quantum part of the response cost. We identify simple conditions under which either contribution vanishes, and we further clarify the structure of the intersubspace term through a symmetry-resolved decomposition and exact sector-selection rules. The bound and its structure are illustrated in a driven two-level atom.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

FORT-Searcher: Synthesizing Shortcut-Resistant Search Tasks for Training Deep Search Agents

Training deep search agents requires verifiable questions whose answers remain unavailable until sufficient evidence has been acquired through search. Existing synthesis methods often increase apparent difficulty by enriching graph structures, but structural complexity alone does not guarantee realized search difficulty: the intended search process can collapse through a cheaper identifying route. We formalize this gap with a shortcut-aware difficulty framework and identify four actionable shortcut risks: evidence co-coverage, single-clue selectivity, exposed constants, and prior-knowledge binding. To diagnose their realized effects, we use trajectory signatures including solving cost, answer hit time, and prior-shortcut rate. Guided by this framework, we introduce FORT, a Framework of Shortcut-Resistant Training-Data Synthesis. FORT constructs shortcut-resistant training data by controlling shortcut risks across entity selection, evidence graph construction, question formulation, and adversarial refinement. Experiments show that FORT induces longer pre-answer search and fewer shortcut patterns than existing open-source deep search datasets. Using the resulting trajectories, we train FORT-Searcher with supervised fine-tuning (SFT) only, and it achieves the best overall performance among comparable-size open-source search agents on challenging deep search benchmarks. Relevant resources will be made available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/FORT-Searcher.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Design and Scheduling of an AI-based Queueing System

arXiv:2406.06855v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: To leverage prediction models to make optimal scheduling decisions in service systems, we must understand how predictive errors impact congestion due to externalities on the delay of other jobs. Motivated by applications where prediction models interact with human servers (e.g., content moderation), we consider a large queueing system comprising of many single server queues where the class of a job is estimated using a prediction model. By characterizing the impact of mispredictions on congestion cost in heavy traffic, we design an index-based policy that incorporates the predicted class information in a near-optimal manner. Our theoretical results guide the design of predictive models by providing a simple model selection procedure with downstream queueing performance as a central concern, and offer novel insights on how to design queueing systems with AI-based triage. We illustrate our framework on a content moderation task based on real online comments, where we construct toxicity classifiers by finetuning large language models.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Unintended Effects of Geographic Conditioning in Large Language Models

Modern conversational AI systems frequently rely on user metadata to localize responses, yet the unintended regional biases introduced by this hidden context remain poorly understood. In this work, we evaluate location leakage: the phenomenon where a model generates geographic references despite receiving a geographically neutral user prompt. Across both creative writing and open-ended Q&A prompts, even state-of-the-art LLMs systematically favor region-specific outputs when exposed to location metadata, with leakage spiking by up to 793 times above baseline (e.g., from 0.04% to 31.7% for Llama 3.1-8B, and 21.3% and 8.8% for Qwen3-8B and Claude Sonnet 4.6, respectively). Our analysis further shows a novel structural conditioning effect: replacing the injected location with the placeholder "Unknown" still elevates leakage by up to 72 times above baseline, demonstrating that the user profile frame itself, independent of any geographic content, acts as a generative conditioning signal.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

The Latent Bridge: A Continuous Slow-Fast Channel for Real-Time Game Agents

arXiv:2606.24470v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A real-time agent for general computer use - with games as the most demanding case - must act within tens of milliseconds while still planning over seconds. These two regimes sit at opposite ends of the latency-quality tradeoff. A reasoning VLM (Qwen3-VL-8B-Thinking) deliberates effectively but requires ~1.5 s per response - far too slow for a 15 Hz control loop. In contrast, a reactive VLM (MiniCPM-o 4.5) acts in milliseconds but underperforms on planning-heavy tasks. We couple two frozen models of matched scale (9B reactive, 8B reasoning), leaving the communication channel as the sole trainable component. The standard coupling is a Text Bridge (T): the slow model writes a suffix the fast model reads. We introduce a learned continuous Latent Bridge (L) that projects the slow model's residuals into the fast model's input-embedding space in a LLaVA-style manner, avoiding any text round-trip; both are compared against Fast-Only (F). On 7 Atari games and a driving domain (MetaDrive), tuning the action decoder per channel on held-out seeds, the Latent Bridge matches or beats the Text Bridge in every domain: it significantly improves two games (MsPacman +57%, RoadRunner +28%) and is a safe drop-in elsewhere. Combining both channels interferes destructively (RoadRunner -96%), so only one should be used. The benefit is highly predictable: the bridge helps if and only if slow reasoning already beats fast reaction (T > F) - the Latent and Text gains over Fast-Only move together at r=0.93. MetaDrive is the controlled negative, where the Latent Bridge is demonstrably inert because the Text Bridge adds no value. We release replay recordings and reproducible pipelines.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Type Checking Project Haystack Grids using JSON Schema and Pydantic

arXiv:2606.24891v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ontologies enable scalable energy services in buildings by supporting interoperability and automation. Project Haystack is a building ontology that is widely adopted due to its flexible, tag-based semantic model, openness, and extensibility, but suffers from ambiguous tag usage and limited automated validation. Although Project Haystack is formally open, its reliance on custom file formats and domain-specific languages that originate from the Haxall ecosystem creates a de facto barrier to integration. In this paper, we address these limitations by introducing a Python-based toolchain for Haystack. We present (i) a parser for Haystack definition files (Trio file format), and (ii) a code generator that derives Pydantic models and JSON Schema definitions from these parsed specifications. The resulting models enable static type checking and enable structural validation of Haystack grids within Python, as well as schema-based validation of JSON representations outside the Python ecosystem. All tools, generated models, and schemas are released publicly under an open-source license, with the goal of strengthening the Haystack ecosystem and opening a practical pathway beyond its current technical boundaries.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

External Validation and Calibration Assessment of Explainable Machine Learning Models for GVHD Prediction After Allogeneic HSCT

Background Graft versus host disease (GVHD) remains a major determinant of morbidity and mortality following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo HSCT). Existing GVHD prediction models demonstrate modest discrimination and limited generalizability, and calibration drift across external populations is rarely characterized despite its essential role in the clinical interpretability of predicted probabilities. Objectives To develop and externally validate an explainable machine learning framework for predicting acute and chronic GVHD and associated overall survival in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) undergoing allo HSCT, and to systematically characterize calibration across heterogeneous external validation cohorts to inform deployment requirements. Study Design The model was developed on three publicly available registry-derived datasets (N = 2,509) and externally validated across six independent cohorts (N = 14,788) comprising adult and pediatric allo HSCT recipients, including a regional Middle Eastern cohort (UAE and Jordan). A standardized preprocessing pipeline harmonized heterogeneous datasets. Gradient boosting models (CatBoost) were used for binary GVHD prediction; exploratory overall survival analysis used a Cox proportional hazards model with predicted acute GVHD risk as a covariate. Discrimination (AUROC with bootstrap 95% CI), calibration (logistic recalibration intercept and slope with analytical 95% CI), and feature importance (SHapley Additive exPlanations, SHAP) were assessed in training out-of-fold and all external cohorts. Results In internal validation, AUROC was 0.63 (95% CI 0.61-0.65) for acute GVHD and 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74) for chronic GVHD. External validation demonstrated AUROC ranges of 0.51-0.57 (acute) and 0.54-0.64 (chronic), with consistent performance across disease subgroups despite substantial heterogeneity in transplant practices and feature availability. In exploratory survival analysis, the acute-GVHD-informed Cox model achieved a training-cohort C-index of 0.679 (95% CI 0.658-0.697); external C-indices ranged from 0.47-0.53. Calibration analysis identified systematic external risk overestimation (negative calibration intercept in 10 of 11 evaluable external cohort-target combinations) with heterogeneous slope drift requiring cohort-specific recalibration. Key predictors included recipient age, graft source, conditioning intensity, GVHD prophylaxis, and HLA match ratio. Conclusions An explainable, externally validated GVHD prediction framework was developed using heterogeneous registry-derived datasets, with systematic characterization of calibration drift across multiple external cohorts, an analysis rarely reported in prior GVHD prediction literature. Predictive performance was modest for acute GVHD and moderate for chronic GVHD, constrained by missing immunobiological variables and incomplete HLA characterization. Per-cohort recalibration is required before clinical deployment, with prospective validation and benchmarking against established GVHD risk scores identified as priority next steps.

24.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-12

Estimating the effectiveness of syndromic screening at airports for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease

We used a stochastic simulation model to estimate the effectiveness of combined exit and entry airport screening for Bundibugyo ebolavirus disease (BVD), using natural-history parameters from a Bayesian re-analysis of the 2012 Isiro outbreak. For a 12-hour international flight from DRC or Uganda at 86% screening sensitivity, we estimate 65% of infected travellers would arrive undetected (95% CrI: 38 - 76%). The main driver of this outcome is the relative duration of the the incubation period (approximately 7.7 days) and the onset-to-severe-disease interval (approximately 4 days): most infected travellers board before symptom onset and are undetectable by any syndromic screen, whilst those who are symptomatic progress rapidly to illness severe enough to preclude travel. This is compounded during active epidemic growth, when recently exposed (and therefore pre-symptomatic) cases are overrepresented among travellers. Syndromic airport screening offers limited protection against BVD spread via air travel, and should be complemented by outbreak control at source and strengthened clinical surveillance in receiving countries with high travel connectivity to affected areas.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

An Information Theoretic Framework for Graph Novelty Generation via Latent Mixture Modeling

arXiv:2606.19770v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose an information-theoretic framework for graph novelty generation, which aims to generate data that are distinct from existing patterns while preserving global structural consistency. Our approach embeds data into a latent space, models the latent distribution using finite mixture models, and generates novel samples by imposing explicit novelty and reliability conditions formulated in terms of description length. Specifically, novelty is enforced by requiring generated samples to be poorly explained by all existing mixture components, while reliability constrains their impact on the overall mixture structure under the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We provide a theoretical analysis showing that, with appropriate threshold choices, the probabilities of misclassifying non-novel or unreliable samples converge to zero with explicit rates. Experiments on synthetic and benchmark graph datasets demonstrate that the proposed method enables principled novelty generation with quantifiable risk.