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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

MegaFold: Efficient Training of Next-Generation 3D Attention Protein Models on Cross-Platform GPUs

arXiv:2506.20686v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in biomolecular modeling have been catalyzed by models such as AlphaFold3 (AF3), which introduce science-informed changes to the transformer architecture. Unlike transformers, a defining characteristic of AF3-style models is their 3D attention over 2D pairwise representations which produces tensors whose computation and memory costs scale cubically with sequence length. As a result, despite moderate parameter counts, AF3-style models are far more expensive to train than size-equivalent transformers, and are severely constrained by GPU memory capacity. Our characterization shows 3D attention fundamentally changes the training workload, causing massive 3D attention maps, complex inter-operator dependencies, kernel fragmentation, and heavy host-side data pipelines which differ substantially from LLM training, leading to poor utilization on modern GPU systems. Moreover, existing GPU optimizations do not adequately address these challenges due to complex cross-layer inter-operator dependencies introduced by 3D attention. Motivated by these challenges, we introduce MegaFold, a novel cross-platform system for efficient training of next-generation 3D-attention protein models. MegaFold combines a memory-efficient 3D-attention kernel, a communication-efficient sharding strategy for quadratic representations, fused operator implementations for critical execution paths, and a determinism-aware host-device pipeline that eliminates preprocessing stalls. Evaluation on both NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI250 GPUs shows that MegaFold enables training with up to 3.36$\times$ longer sequence lengths on 32 GPUs while reducing end-to-end execution time by up to 1.73$\times$ (NVIDIA) and 1.62$\times$ (AMD).

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

When in Doubt, Plan It Out: Committed Small Language Model Deliberation for Reactive Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.16995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement Learning (RL) policies often degrade in unfamiliar environments because they lack explicit deliberation. We propose Plan, Align, Commit, Think (PACT), a hybrid architecture that combines a fast, reactive RL policy with a slow, deliberative Small Language Model (SLM) planner. PACT invokes the SLM asynchronously to generate and validate candidate action plans. Once a plan is verified through simulation as safe, feasible, and complete, it is executed directly, bypassing the RL policy without retraining or modifying it. Evaluated on three FrozenLake configurations of increasing difficulty, PACT outperforms all baselines while relying on a 2B-parameter SLM backbone, suggesting that deliberative planning and reactive execution are more powerful in concert than either is alone in these settings.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

IVIE: A Neuro-symbolic Approach to Incremental and Validated Generation of Interactive Fiction Worlds

Computational creativity in Interactive Fiction faces a fundamental tension: Large Language Models (LLM) may produce creative narratives but struggle with world coherence, while symbolic systems ensure consistency but lack creative flexibility. We present IVIE (Incremental & Validated Interactive Experiences), a neuro-symbolic approach to generating complete and playable interactive fiction worlds from scratch. Building upon PAYADOR's neuro-symbolic framework, IVIE implements a four-stage incremental generation pipeline that delegates creative decisions–setting and character creation, puzzle design–to LLMs while grounding the world state through symbolic validation. The system generates worlds with interconnected locations, functional items, non-player characters, and coherent puzzles, all structured around a central goal-oriented architecture. Human evaluation shows the approach generates immersive, thematically coherent worlds with high player engagement. Results seem to indicate that the neuro-symbolic approach successfully balances flexibility with narrative coherence: symbolic validation grounds LLM generation without eliminating generative freedom. However, challenges remain: LLM inconsistencies occasionally bypass puzzle constraints, and objective validation gaps allow some structurally impossible goals. We identify key design considerations for future neurosymbolic interactive storytelling systems, particularly regarding LLM capabilities and their limitations.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

FlexMS: A Unified Public Benchmark for Molecule Tandem Mass Spectrum Prediction

arXiv:2602.22822v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is central to small molecule identification, but current deep learning systems for spectrum prediction still remain difficult to evaluate and deploy in practice. While novel architectures constantly claim state-of-the-art performance, inconsistent metadata conditioning and entangled preprocessing pipelines hinder fair architectural comparisons. Besides, existing evaluations are often restricted to curated datasets, failing to capture the heterogeneity and cross-domain shifts of real-world metabolomics. Furthermore, current benchmarks lack difficulty-aware diagnostics and leave blind to how models behave under specific compute or data constraints. To address this, we present FlexMS, a modular public-data benchmark framework that standardizes MS/MS prediction across public resources while keeping molecular encoders, metadata conditioning, predictor heads, and downstream retrieval under one protocol. FlexMS establishes a fair evaluation playground which significantly lowers the barrier for integrating new predictive tools. Rather than solely optimizing for average scores, FlexMS augments aggregate accuracy with difficulty-aware diagnostics, providing actionable guidance on model selection across different compute constraints, data scales, and downstream retrieval objectives. Ultimately, FlexMS provides the community with a reproducible standard to identify which algorithmic conclusions are stable and which operating points are most viable in practice.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Wasserstein Equilibrium Decoding for Reliable Medical Visual Question Answering

Small vision-language models (2-8B) are well-suited for clinical deployment due to privacy constraints, limited connectivity, and low-latency requirements favouring on-device or on-premise inference. However, their limited capacity exacerbates the generation of plausible but incorrect outputs. We extend game-theoretic decoding, previously restricted to text-only, closed-ended NLP tasks, to vision-language models for open-ended Medical VQA. We introduce a semantically aware Wasserstein stopping criterion that replaces lexical order matching, enabling convergence based on semantic consensus among near-synonymous candidate answers and avoiding unnecessary iterations caused by clinically equivalent ranking swaps. On VQA-RAD and PathVQA, we obtain consistent, statistically significant improvements over greedy and discriminative baselines. On VQA-RAD, we improve Qwen3-VL-2B by +3.5 percentage points (p < 0.01), surpassing the greedy 4B model, with similar trends at larger scales. On PathVQA, Gemma-3-4B with BDG matches MedGemma-4B under greedy decoding despite no domain-specific fine-tuning. At accuracy parity with classic BDG, the Wasserstein criterion reduces average convergence iterations by approximately 20%, improving inference efficiency while preserving the game-theoretic equilibrium behaviour. Code is available at https://github.com/luca-hagen/ Wasserstein-BDG-medical-VQA.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Data Scale, Not Latency, Shapes Cross-Lingual Encoder Transfer in Streaming ASR

作者:

arXiv:2606.24169v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adapting a streaming speech recognition model to a new language requires choosing between two plausible warm starts: a multilingual (ML) encoder or an English-only (EN) encoder. The common intuition is that the multilingual encoder should help most at low data, but it is unclear how long that advantage persists, whether tight streaming latency amplifies it, and whether it survives deployment quantization. We answer these questions with a controlled sweep of a 0.6 B-parameter cache-aware FastConformer transducer across eight European languages, up to five target-language data scales (100 h to 2500 h), three streaming tiers plus offline decoding, and up to four public test sets. The main result is that multilingual initialization is a data-limited advantage, not a latency-limited one. On FLEURS at 160 ms, the mean EN-ML word error rate (WER) gap falls from +4.21 percentage points (pp) at 100 h to +0.20 pp at 2500 h; a power-law fit summarizes this decay, with each doubling of target-language data roughly halving the remaining advantage. Across the three streaming tiers, the across-language mean EN-ML gap is approximately stable at each scale from 100 to 1000 h, and is near zero by 2500 h. Finally, 4-bit weight-only encoder quantization at the matched 560 ms streaming tier reduces the encoder footprint by about 3x, with an average FLEURS WER increase of about 0.5 pp. The resulting guideline is simple: use multilingual initialization in low-data regimes, treat the choice as effectively irrelevant at large data, and make latency and quantization decisions independently.

07.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-24

Reinforcement Learning to Disentangle Multiqubit Quantum States from Partial Observations

arXiv:2406.07884v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Using partial knowledge of a quantum state to control multiqubit entanglement is a largely unexplored paradigm in the emerging field of quantum interactive dynamics with the potential to address outstanding challenges in quantum state preparation and compression, quantum control, and quantum complexity. We present a deep reinforcement learning (RL) approach using an actor-critic algorithm for constructing short disentangling circuits for states with up to 16 qubits. With access to only two-qubit reduced density matrices, our agent decides which pairs of qubits to apply two-qubit gates on; requiring only local information makes it directly applicable on modern NISQ devices, as we demonstrated experimentally on a trapped-ion quantum computer. Utilizing a permutation-equivariant transformer architecture, the agent can autonomously identify qubit permutations within the state, and adjusts the disentangling protocol accordingly. Once trained, it provides circuits from different initial states without further optimization. We demonstrate the agent's ability to identify and exploit the entanglement structure of multi-qubit states. We analyze the disentangling circuits constructed by the agent for 4- and 5-qubit Haar-random states, and observe strong correlations between consecutive gates and among the qubits involved. Through extensive benchmarking, we show the efficacy of the RL approach to find disentangling protocols with minimal gate resources. We explore the resilience of our trained agents to noise, highlighting their potential for real-world quantum computing applications. Analyzing optimal disentangling protocols, we report a general circuit to prepare an arbitrary 4-qubit state using at most 5 two-qubit (10 CNOT) gates.

08.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

Want Better Synthetic Data? Steer It: Activation Steering for Low-Resource Language Generation

Large language models (LLMs) have become an effective tool for synthetic data generation, including for low-resource languages, where generated data can improve downstream task performance. Current best-performing approaches typically rely on few-shot prompting with target-language examples, which increases inference costs and may reduce diversity through lexical anchoring. In this work, we investigate activation steering as an alternative for low-resource synthetic data generation. We study two steering strategies: Language Steering, which targets the linguistic identity of a language, and Quality Steering, which captures well-formedness by contrasting human-written and backtranslated text representations. We evaluate these methods across four open-source LLMs, multiple layers, and 11 typologically diverse languages by generating sentiment and topic classification data and finetuning smaller classifiers. Steering is applied in both zero-shot and few-shot prompting settings and compared against non-steered counterparts. Our results show that steering on early layers consistently improves the diversity of generated data while often yielding stronger downstream model performance, particularly for low-resource languages.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Evaluating and Enhancing Negation Comprehension in Remote Sensing MLLMs

arXiv:2606.20177v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in various Remote Sensing (RS) tasks. However, their ability to comprehend negation remains underexplored, limiting deployment in real-world applications where models must explicitly identify what is false or absent, e.g., emergency responders need to locate non-flooded routes for evacuation. To comprehensively study this limitation, we introduce RS-Neg, the first benchmark to evaluate negation understanding across region-level to scene-level tasks. Specifically, we design an automated data generation pipeline for RS imagery, using LLMs to synthesize diverse negation queries, and introduce a dynamic visual focus module for verification. Our evaluation reveals that advanced RS MLLMs struggle with negation, exhibiting hallucinations and substantial performance degradation. To close this gap, we propose NeFo, a novel test-time learning method that explicitly incorporates the logical role of negation into the model optimization. Remarkably, using about 5\% unlabeled test samples, NeFo significantly improves the negation understanding of models and shows strong generalization to unseen tasks. Code and data will be released upon acceptance.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Red-Teaming the Agentic Red-Team

arXiv:2606.24496v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The use of agentic systems to perform offensive security operations has moved from a theoretical possibility to a commoditized capability. However, while the community has focused on creating more and more capable agents, less attention has been allocated to assessing the security of those systems. In this work, we present the first in-depth security analysis of the most widely used agentic systems for offensive security operations. We show that most of these tools share common design flaws that enable an active adversary to exfiltrate API keys, establish persistent footholds, and fully compromise the operator's machine, even when the agent operates inside a sandboxed container. To support our analysis, we introduce a full cyber kill chain for such agentic systems, capturing the progression from initial LLM manipulation to lateral movement, persistence, guardrail bypass, and sandbox escape. Building on our security analysis, we derive a robust architecture for agentic offensive-security tools and propose actionable, broadly applicable design principles that mitigate the disclosed attack paths at the architectural level.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

FLaRA: Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation

Anticipating traffic accidents from dashcam videos is a critical challenge in intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods typically map visual context directly to a collision probability without explicitly modeling the future evolution of the driving scene. In this paper we propose FLaRA (Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation), a novel predictive architecture that shifts this paradigm by forecasting future latent representations for accident anticipation. Building upon the Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA2), our model conditions a predictor network on observed context frames to predict the forthcoming latent features of the scene. A classifier then operates on these predicted future representations rather than only on past observations. To ensure these forecasts remain grounded in realistic future dynamics, we introduce a joint training objective that simultaneously optimizes an auxiliary feature-level reconstruction loss and a cross-entropy classification loss. Extensive evaluations on the Nexar dataset, alongside cross-domain validations on the DAD, DADA-2000, and DoTA benchmarks, demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining realistic early warning capabilities.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Benchmarking Quantum Computers via Protocols, Comparing IBM's Heron vs IBM's Eagle

arXiv:2603.04377v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As quantum computing hardware rapidly advances, objectively evaluating the capabilities and error rates of new processors remains a critical challenge for the field. A clear and realistic understanding of current quantum performance is essential for guiding research priorities and driving meaningful progress. In this work, we apply and extend a protocol-based benchmarking methodology (Meirom, Mor, Weinstein Arxiv 2505.12441) that utilizes well-defined \underline{quantumness} thresholds. By evaluating performance at protocol level rather than the gate level, this approach provides a transparent and intuitive assessment of whether specific quantum processors, or isolated sub-chips within them, can demonstrate a practical quantum advantage. To illustrate the utility of this method, we compare two generations of IBM quantum computers: the older Eagle architecture and the newer Heron architecture. Our findings reveal the genuine operational strengths and limitations of these devices, demonstrating substantial performance improvements in the newer Heron generation. This work was made possible by IBM Quantum policies that enable independent and objective assessment of its quantum computers and sub-chips. We strongly encourage other companies to emulate the independent qubit availability and the fair pricing that allow researchers to perform such assessments.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Multi-Task Tennis Stroke Biomechanics Analysis Using MediaPipe Pose

We built a multi-task pipeline for tennis stroke biomechanics from plain RGB video. On top of pose-based stroke recognition, it adds two new tasks, predicting shot direction and grading posture quality, plus a rule-based feedback layer that suggests coaching tips. Strokes are found automatically using a weighted joint velocity score, s(t) = 0.5 v_wrist + 0.3 m_elbow + 0.2 m_shoulder, removing the need for manual annotation. Pose comes from MediaPipe Pose Landmarker (33 landmarks, metric world coordinates), with each stroke turned into a 30-frame by 39-feature sequence for TennisTransformerGPU, a compact 564,103-parameter transformer (4 layers, 4 heads, d=128) with three parallel output heads. Trained on 1,281 labeled strokes from 7 pros and 1 amateur across 11 videos, it hits 83.7% stroke-type accuracy, 61.9% on direction, and 62.6% on posture under a random 80/20 split. The interesting test is cross-player: train on pros, evaluate on the amateur. Stroke type barely budges, 82.9%, a 0.8% drop. Direction prediction does not transfer; it just falls back to the majority class. An ablation shows why world coordinates matter so much here: switching to image-space landmarks tanks cross-player stroke-type accuracy from 83% to 47% and direction from 68% to 21%. Everything runs on Kaggle's free T4 GPU tier and is fully reproducible.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Efficient Test-time Inference for Generative Planning Models with OCL Search

arXiv:2606.00618v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Generative models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for AI planning, yet their performance remains constrained by the training data distribution. One approach is to improve generated solutions during inference by scaling test-time compute. A more efficient alternative is to optimize the inference process itself. In this paper, we show that a modified version of a classical Open-Closed List (OCL) search provides just such an efficient inference procedure. Our algorithm synergizes two learned components: a generative model that performs fast rollouts from intermediate states and a heuristic model that prioritizes among candidate reasoning paths. Key contributions include novel exploration control mechanisms and integration of learned models within the OCL framework. Across multiple combinatorial planning domains, our approach outperforms both neurosymbolic search baselines and classical solvers in computational efficiency and solution quality.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Low-rank Updates in Slowly Time-varying Graphs for Spatial-Temporal Signal Interpolation

arXiv:2606.24011v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A crucial assumption in graph signal processing (GSP) is the existence of an underlying graph that captures the pairwise similarities between nodes, allowing filters to be designed based on this graph for tasks such as denoising. For spatial-temporal data in which node-to-node similarities evolve over time, a static spatial graph is insufficient. In this paper, to represent slowly time-varying pairwise relationships, we model the graph changes in two consecutive adjacency matrices $P = W^{(2)} - W^{(1)}$ across time as a low-rank matrix. % Specifically, given an initial adjacency matrix $W^{(1)}$ at time $t=1$, we jointly interpolate a signal $x_2$ and estimate $W^{(2)}$ at $t=2$ using both a graph signal smoothness prior for $x_2$ and a low-rank prior on $\P$. We alternate optimization steps. With $W^{(2)}$ fixed, $x_2$ is interpolated by solving a linear system. Alternatively, holding $x_2$ fixed, $W^{(2)}$ is updated via proximal gradient descent (PGD). The proximal mapping of the rank term $Gamma(W^{(2)} - W^{(1)})$ is approximated in linear time using a fast orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) algorithm that selects a sparse combination of atoms from a dictionary $cR$ formed by the outer products of $W^{(1)}$'s eigenvectors. We unroll iterations of our algorithm into layers to build a lightweight neural network for limited data-driven parameter tuning. Experiments show that our joint optimization achieves better signal interpolation compared to existing time-varying graph models.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Detecting undisclosed LLM-generated content in parliamentary texts

In this paper, we evaluate the extent of undisclosed LLM-generated content in texts from the parliaments of the United Kingdom and Sweden. In many areas, such as in journalism or in academic writing, there are often requirements to clearly disclose whether AI tools, such as LLMs, have been used. In the case of parliamentary texts, the guidelines on disclosure of AI use are more vague. However, in order to maintain transparency and retain public trust, it is generally recommended that parliamentarians should state whether or not they have used AI when writing texts, such as parliamentary motions. Here, we train an interpretable (glass-box) text classifier using pre-LLM parliamentary texts and LLM-generated versions of such texts. We then apply the classifier to a test set containing recent parliamentary texts, finding a steady increase in undisclosed LLM use, in both parliaments, from 2022 onwards.

17.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Quantum Field-Theoretic Predictions of {\Psi}-Epistemic Models of Quantum Mechanics

arXiv:2605.12546v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: {\Psi}-epistemic models of quantum mechanics imply that the quantum state does not correspond to physical reality, but instead reflects the observer's knowledge of the underlying quantum system. The epistemic view of the quantum state has the potential to shed light on several foundational problems of quantum theory and has attracted considerable attention in the literature. On the other hand, the Pusey-Barrett-Rudolph theorem demonstrated that broad classes of {\psi}-epistemic models must lead to predictions that deviate from those of quantum mechanics. Although the original theorem involved entangled joint measurements on composite systems, alternative no-go theorems involving measurements on single quantum systems were developed shortly thereafter. Experimental investigations of the deviations predicted by {\psi}-epistemic models from quantum mechanics are still ongoing. So far, such tests have been performed within the framework of non-relativistic quantum mechanics and predominantly rely on quantum information based measurement procedures. In this work, we show that {\psi}-epistemic models can give rise to deviations from standard quantum field-theoretic predictions through modifications of polarized scattering cross sections and decay widths. Our results do not require a relativistic formulation of ontological models or of the Harrigan-Spekkens criterion; the essential assumption is merely that measurements implemented through relativistic processes can still be represented within the ontological framework by well-defined response functions and probabilities. The present work constitutes a proof-of-principle study demonstrating that particle physics tests of the ontological status of the quantum state are possible and that {\psi}-epistemic models may exhibit experimentally distinguishable signatures in particle phenomenology.

18.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Integrated expectile-based measures of inequality

arXiv:2606.12333v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Expectiles provide a class of asymmetric location functionals that incorporate the magnitude of deviations and admit a natural geometric interpretation. Building on their structural consistency with the convex stochastic order, this paper introduces a family of integrated expectile functionals for measuring risk, dispersion, and inequality. The proposed functionals admit analytical representations as integrals of expectiles across asymmetry levels. For a distinguished subclass of these constructions, a geometric representation is available: the resulting quantities can be expressed as weighted areas of star-shaped sets encoding the distributional asymmetry of a random variable. This approach yields a new class of expectile-based inequality indices, constituting a natural counterpart to classical Gini-type measures while preserving desirable monotonicity and consistency properties. Empirical counterparts are derived in closed form and admit explicit decompositions over finite samples. The framework extends naturally to multivariate settings through directional expectile constructions, leading to measures capable of capturing genuinely joint forms of multivariate dispersion and inequality.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Improving Scientific Document Retrieval with Academic Concept Index

arXiv:2601.00567v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Adapting general-domain retrievers to scientific domains is challenging due to the scarcity of large-scale domain-specific relevance annotations and the substantial mismatch in vocabulary and information needs. Recent approaches address these issues through two independent directions that leverage large language models (LLMs): (1) generating synthetic queries for fine-tuning, and (2) generating auxiliary contexts to support relevance matching. However, both directions overlook the diverse academic concepts embedded within scientific documents, often producing redundant or conceptually narrow queries and contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce an academic concept index, which extracts key concepts from papers and organizes them guided by an academic taxonomy. This structured index serves as a foundation for improving both directions. First, we enhance the synthetic query generation with concept coverage-based generation (CCQGen), which adaptively conditions LLMs on uncovered concepts to generate complementary queries with broader concept coverage. Second, we strengthen the context augmentation with concept-focused auxiliary contexts (CCExpand), which leverages a set of document snippets that serve as concise responses to the concept-aware CCQGen queries. Extensive experiments show that incorporating the academic concept index into both query generation and context augmentation leads to higher-quality queries, better conceptual alignment, and improved retrieval performance.

20.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Contactless 3D Human Body Measurement Using Depth Cameras for Smart Health Monitoring

Contactless body measurement technologies are becoming increasingly significant for smart health monitoring, digital health applications, and remote patient assessment. Traditional anthropometric measurements typically necessitate physical contact and trained personnel, which may constrain scalability in remote healthcare settings. In this study, we introduce a depth camera-based framework for estimating human body measurements utilizing 3D point cloud data. An Orbbec Astra 2 depth camera was employed to capture RGB images, depth maps, and 3D point clouds of participants. The captured point cloud was processed using Python-based tools, including Open3D, NumPy, and OpenCV, to segment the human body from the background. Key anthropometric measurements, such as height and arm span, were computed. The measurements were obtained through a combination of spatial filtering and landmark selection on the 3D point cloud, followed by the projection of the computed measurements onto the corresponding RGB image using camera intrinsic parameters. In addition to linear measurements, the approximate body volume and visible surface area were estimated using voxel-based occupancy analysis and mesh-based surface reconstruction methods. The experimental results from a single depth capture demonstrated that accurate body measurements and geometric estimates could be obtained from depth camera data without physical contact. This study provides a foundation for future real-time systems that integrate depth sensing with intelligent health monitoring and generative AI models for smart healthcare applications.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Simulation-Augmented Multi-Step Split Conformal Prediction for Aggregated Forecasts

arXiv:2606.16356v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study uncertainty quantification for aggregated forecasting tasks such as annual totals and year-over-year growth rates. We propose SA-MSCP, a simulation-augmented multi-step split conformal method that generates future paths from cross-validated residuals using a block bootstrap and constructs prediction intervals from empirical quantiles. Experiments show that SA-MSCP improves empirical coverage over a simulated-path baseline for aggregated and growth-rate targets. Our results demonstrate that simulation-enhanced conformal calibration is an effective and general framework for uncertainty quantification in aggregated time-series forecasting.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

MultiMolecule: a modular ecosystem for biomolecular sequence-model workflows

作者:

arXiv:2606.16540v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Biomolecular sequence models are increasingly reused outside the studies in which they were introduced, but public checkpoints rarely preserve the execution context needed to inspect source-defined behavior, adapt models to new assays, compare models under shared task definitions or deploy biological predictions. MultiMolecule is an open-source Python ecosystem that turns heterogeneous RNA, DNA and protein sequence-model releases into complete, source-checked model-family implementations with shared loading, workflow and prediction interfaces. The Resource state reported here includes 53 complete model-family implementations with 112 standardized model checkpoints, together with 16 curated dataset resources released through 39 public dataset repositories and 10 user-facing prediction pipelines. Standardized components are linked to source provenance, conversion or preparation code, source-reference checks, Extended Data summaries and public documentation, allowing users to inspect what was standardized, what behavior was checked and how each component enters training, evaluation, inference or deployment. By shifting reuse from repository-specific checkpoints to executable implementations connected to standardized checkpoints, curated datasets, Runner workflows and biological prediction pipelines, MultiMolecule provides common infrastructure for preserving source-defined model behavior, adapting models to new assays, enabling controlled evaluation and deploying biomolecular predictions.

23.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Cross-Device Adaptation of Mirai for Mammography-Based Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

Fine-tuning can adapt pretrained medical imaging models to new clinical datasets, but device-specific domain shifts may limit generalizability. We evaluated Mirai, a mammography-based deep learning model for breast cancer risk prediction, in a large screening cohort containing Hologic and General Electric (GE) full-field digital mammography systems, including GE Premium View (GE PV) and Tissue Equalization (GE TE) post-processing software. Native Mirai showed lower performance on TE images than on Hologic or PV images. Fine-tuning on TE images improved TE performance, particularly for short-term risk prediction, but substantially reduced performance on Hologic images, consistent with catastrophic forgetting. To mitigate this effect, we developed a device-invariant model using interleaved multi-device sampling and conditional adversarial training. This approach largely restored Hologic performance while maintaining improved TE performance, providing better robustness across heterogeneous imaging platforms. Comparison of cumulative and annual risk AUCs over a five-year time horizon further showed that performance gains were driven mainly by short- and intermediate-term predictions. These findings highlight both the value and dangers of device-specific fine-tuning and support balanced domain-adaptation strategies for deploying mammography-based risk models across diverse clinical imaging environments.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting

arXiv:2606.18367v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Standard benchmarks evaluate time series foundation models (TSFMs) using aggregate metrics, but these can mask severe failures in critical operating regimes. We introduce regime-stratified evaluation and apply it to three TSFMs on two standard traffic speed benchmarks. Traffic exhibits abrupt regime switching between free-flow and congested states, producing bimodal speed distributions during transitions. When we stratify by traffic regime, both accuracy and prediction-interval coverage degrade sharply during transitions: transition-regime MAE reaches 11 mph (versus 3 mph overall), and empirical coverage of 90% prediction intervals drops as low as 55%. These failures are invisible in aggregate metrics because free-flow observations dominate the sample. A simple historical conditional baseline (sampling from per-sensor training distributions) achieves better transition coverage than any TSFM, but has far worse overall accuracy. We propose bimodal mixture augmentation (BMA), a post-hoc method that combines TSFM forecasts with historical distributional knowledge, approaching the historical baseline's transition coverage while preserving the TSFM's accuracy. Our results suggest that TSFM benchmarks should incorporate regime-aware evaluation to surface failures that aggregate metrics hide.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

FinTradeBench: A Financial Reasoning Benchmark for LLMs

Real-world financial decision-making is a challenging problem that requires reasoning over heterogeneous signals, including company fundamentals derived from regulatory filings and trading signals computed from price dynamics. Recently, with advances in Large Language Models (LLMs), financial analysts have begun to use them for financial decision-making tasks. However, existing financial question-answering benchmarks for testing these models primarily focus on company balance sheet data and rarely evaluate reasoning about how company stocks trade in the market or their interactions with fundamentals. To leverage the strengths of both approaches, we introduce FinTradeBench, a benchmark for evaluating financial reasoning that integrates company fundamentals and trading signals. FinTradeBench contains 1,400 questions grounded in NASDAQ-100 companies over a ten-year historical window. The benchmark is organized into three reasoning categories: fundamentals-focused, trading-signal-focused, and hybrid questions requiring cross-signal reasoning. To ensure reliability at scale, we adopt a calibration-then-scaling framework that combines expert seed questions, multi-model response generation, intra-model self-filtering, numerical auditing, and human-LLM judge alignment. We evaluate 14 LLMs under zero-shot prompting and retrieval-augmented settings and witness a clear performance gap. Retrieval substantially improves reasoning over textual fundamentals, but provides limited benefit for trading-signal reasoning. These findings highlight fundamental challenges in the numerical and time-series reasoning for current LLMs and motivate future research in financial intelligence.