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01.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-16

THEOBROMA: an aggregated open database of 1.13 million natural products with per-compound license auditing, three-tier classification, and stereochemistry-aware deduplication

Natural products remain one of the most productive sources of pharmacologically active compounds for drug discovery, yet the current open aggregator landscape attributes licenses at database rather than compound granularity, with consequences that have become tangible as the field grows. A recent relicensing event in one constituent source (the September 2024 transition of the Natural Products Atlas to CC BY-NC 4.0) demonstrates how database-level licensing propagates across an aggregate and motivates the per-compound audit framework presented here. The same peer cohort separately leaves classification provenance and stereoisomer-family relations coarser than either layer warrants. THEOBROMA, accessible at url{https://theobroma.l3s.uni-hannover.de}, integrates 1{,}133{,}004 natural products from 29 open sources under a per-compound license audit that resolves each compound's license tier across all attesting sources under a most-restrictive-wins rule, identifying 900{,}170 compounds (79.4%) under open-use licenses and exposing the per-source attestation chain and resolved tier through a dedicated audit endpoint and a query-time license filter. A three-tier classification stratifies 89.3% coverage into 35.1% curated, 43.9% high-confidence inferred, and 10.3% exploratory tiers, with 486{,}215 stereoisomer families preserved by full 27-character InChIKey deduplication and exposed via a dedicated texttt{/api/stereoisomers/} endpoint and a radial-family display. Per-compound license provenance is the primary differentiator. Classification stratification and stereoisomer-family exposure add finer-grained access to two related axes, supporting license-compatible virtual screening and isomer-specific bioactivity analysis at corpus scale. As an evolving open resource, THEOBROMA pairs continuous pipeline maintenance with interactive geographic, taxonomic, and chemical-space exploration.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Smoothness-Based Derandomization of PAC-Bayes Bounds

arXiv:2606.19105v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study PAC-Bayes derandomization for smooth loss functions. Our goal is to obtain generalization bounds that hold with high probability for deterministic predictors by exploiting smoothness properties of both the loss and the predictor class. We show that passing from the Gibbs predictor to the deterministic predictor at the posterior mean has a precise cost, given by the generalization gap of the Jensen gap class. We control this class through its Rademacher complexity, leading to bounds for deterministic predictors that involve flatness quantities expressed in terms of parameter Jacobians and Hessians of the score map. The framework applies to both bounded and unbounded smooth loss functions, and we specialize the results to linear predictors and smooth neural networks. Finally, the Jacobian and Hessian quantities appearing in the theory motivate a practical regularizer. For BatchNorm networks, we compute this regularizer with respect to effective BatchNorm weights obtained by folding the BatchNorm transformation into the adjacent affine weights. Experiments on CIFAR-10 illustrate the behavior of this regularizer under different batch sizes.

03.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

SEAL: Searching Expandable Architectures for Incremental Learning

arXiv:2505.10457v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Incremental learning is a machine learning paradigm where a model learns from a sequential stream of tasks. This setting poses a key challenge: balancing plasticity (learning new tasks) and stability (preserving past knowledge). Neural Architecture Search (NAS), a branch of AutoML, automates the design of the architecture of Deep Neural Networks and has shown success in static settings. However, existing NAS-based approaches to incremental learning often rely on expanding the model at every task, making them impractical in resource-constrained environments. In this work, we introduce SEAL, a NAS-based framework tailored for data-incremental learning, a scenario where disjoint data samples arrive sequentially and are not stored for future access. SEAL adapts the model structure dynamically by expanding it only when necessary, based on a capacity estimation metric. Stability is preserved through cross-distillation training after each expansion step. The NAS component jointly searches for both the architecture and the optimal expansion policy. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that SEAL effectively reduces forgetting and enhances accuracy while allocating additional capacity only when required. These results highlight the promise of combining NAS and selective expansion for efficient, adaptive learning in incremental scenarios.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Quantum Computing Applications for Flight Trajectory Optimization

arXiv:2304.14445v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Major players in the global aerospace industry are shifting their focus toward achieving net carbon-neutral operations by 2050. A considerable portion of the overall carbon emission reduction is expected to come from new aircraft technologies, such as flight path optimization. In pursuing these sustainability objectives, we delve into the capacity of quantum computing to tackle computational challenges associated with flight path optimization, an essential operation within the aerospace engineering domain with important ecological and economic considerations. In recent years, the quantum computing field has made significant strides, paving the way for improved performance over classical algorithms. In order to effectively apply quantum algorithms in real-world scenarios, it is crucial to thoroughly examine and tackle the intrinsic overheads and constraints that exist in the present implementations of these algorithms. Our study delves into the application of quantum computers in flight path optimization problems and introduces a customizable modular framework designed to accommodate specific simulation requirements. We examine the running time of a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm across various quantum architectures and their simulations on CPUs and GPUs. A temporal comparison between the conventional classical algorithm and its quantum-improved counterpart indicates that achieving the theoretical speedup in practice may necessitate further innovation. We present our results from running the quantum algorithms on IBM hardware and discuss potential approaches to accelerate the incorporation of quantum algorithms within the problem domain.

05.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Learning New Tasks via Reusable Skills: Skill-Compositional Experts for Embodied Continual Learning

Embodied Continual Learning (ECL) aims to enable robots to continually acquire new manipulation tasks while retaining previously learned behaviors under closed-loop control. Compared with conventional continual learning, ECL suffers from more severe catastrophic forgetting. Feature drift accumulated under closed-loop control progressively propagates through sequential decision-making, leading to degradation of previously learned behaviors. A key challenge in ECL lies in structured skill reuse across continually evolving tasks, since existing methods primarily focus on skill learning without explicitly organizing them for coherent task execution. To address this issue, we propose SCE, a Skill-Compositional Experts framework for ECL. SCE builds a skill base via Compositional Skill Grounding (CSG), which decomposes task demonstrations into reusable skills. Based on this, Dual Execution-and-Transition Experts (DETE) enable new task learning through skill composition, where one branch ensures skill execution and the other supports transitions between skills for coherent behavior. Experiments on LIBERO benchmarks and real-world manipulation tasks demonstrate that SCE consistently improves retention and overall task performance. Further feature drift analyses and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of our method. Project website: https://eqcy.github.io/sce/.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Parallelizing Tool Execution and LLM Generation for Low-Latency Agent Serving

arXiv:2603.18897v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: LLM-powered agents execute tasks through a sequential loop of model generation and tool execution. Today's serving systems serialize this loop, leaving tool latency exposed on the task critical path. This paper presents PASTE, a tool-aware agent-serving system that predicts concrete future tool invocations from recurring agent patterns and executes them speculatively while the LLM is still generating. PASTE isolates speculative results until confirmed by the LLM and jointly schedules tool execution and returning LLM sessions to avoid shifting bottlenecks to the GPU. Across deep research, coding, and scientific-agent workloads, PASTE reduces average task completion time by 43.5% and lowers observed tool latency by 1.8x.

07.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Waning protection of long-acting RSV monoclonal antibodies in infants: a Bayesian analysis of clesrovimab and nirsevimab trial data

Clesrovimab and nirsevimab are long-acting monoclonal antibodies used to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in infants, but waning protection in the first year of life is incompletely characterised. We applied a published Bayesian inference framework to clesrovimab and pooled nirsevimab trial data to estimate time-varying efficacy against medically attended RSV lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) and RSV-associated hospitalisation, accounting for differences in placebo-arm event timing between trials. Estimated clesrovimab efficacy declined from 60.7% (95% CrI: 46.3-72.6) shortly after dosing to 38.3% (8.6-52.9) at six months against medically attended RSV LRTI, and from 87.1% (71.2-96.2) to 49.6% (10.4-70.7) against RSV-associated hospitalisation. For nirsevimab, corresponding estimates declined from 86.9% (75.4-95.0) to 53.8% (27.4-69.7) against LRTI, and from 77.5% (52.6-91.8) to 49.7% (15.7-68.3) against hospitalisation. After accounting for differences in RSV exposure timing and LRTI endpoint definitions between trials, we found no evidence of a difference in efficacy or waning between clesrovimab and nirsevimab.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Lightweight Distillation of SAM 3 and DINOv3 for Edge-Deployable Individual-Level Livestock Monitoring and Longitudinal Visual Analytics

Foundation-model pipelines for individual-level livestock monitoring – combining open-vocabulary detection, promptable video segmentation, and self-supervised visual embeddings – have raised the accuracy ceiling of precision livestock farming (PLF), but their GPU memory budgets exceed the envelope of commodity edge accelerators. To close this gap, the 446M-parameter Perception Encoder (PE-ViT-L+) backbone of SAM 3 is distilled into a 40.66M-parameter multi-scale student through three mechanisms: a Feature Pyramid Network student encoder built on TinyViT-21M-512, a four-term direction-then-scale distillation loss, and backbone-substitution inference with sliding-window session pruning that bounds streaming GPU memory growth. The DINOv3 family includes a pre-distilled ViT-S/16 variant (21.6M parameters) released alongside a 6716M-parameter ViT-7B teacher; the ViT-S (21M) variant is adopted as the per-individual embedder. On the Edinburgh Pig dataset, the compressed pipeline reaches 92.29% MOTA and 96.15% IDF1 against the SAM 3 teacher (1.68- and 0.84-percentage-point losses), achieves a 7.77-fold reduction in system-level parameters and a 3.01-fold reduction in peak VRAM (19.52GB -> 6.49GB), and reaches 97.34% top-1 accuracy with 91.67% macro-F1 on nine-class pig behaviour classification. The pipeline fits inside an NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX 16GB envelope with 4.9GB of headroom, supporting a proposed – but not yet empirically validated – on-device embedding-pool re-identification mechanism whose per-individual footprint of approximately 94MB per animal per year produces a longitudinal visual record amenable to retrospective association with disease, lameness, reproductive, and growth outcome labels.

09.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

A Two-Phase Stability Study of LLM Judges and Bar Council Examiners on Thai Bar-Exam Free-Form Essays

Free-form legal essay evaluation in NLP treats expert inter-rater stability as a single ceiling number, and treats LLM-judge agreement with that ceiling as evidence of judge stability. We test both assumptions on the Thai bar examination through an identical-inputs protocol: three Bar Council-trained examiners (A, B, C) and a 26-LLM judge panel score the same 15 cross-graded answers from the same four inputs (question, official Bar Council grading regulation, gold answer, candidate answer). The headline finding is asymmetric. On 10 of 15 cells where the rubric prescribes both axes, all 29 raters converge in a tight band: panel agreement is universal. On the remaining 5 cells where the rubric does not prescribe how to grade a correct final answer that omits a decisive statutory citation, the human panel splits between two coherent readings (B/C majority at the upper rubric band, score 6-8; A minority at the lower band, score 1-2). The LLM judge population does not split symmetrically: 22 of 26 LLMs score in or near B/C's contested band, 3 sit in the regulation-silent middle gap, and only 1 (GPT-5.4 Nano) approaches A's band without consistently scoring within it. Zero LLMs in our 26-judge panel reproduce the minority human reading on the contested cells. The B/C-direction cluster spans every model size, vendor, and price tier we tested. An instrumented three-LLM anchor sub-panel (Claude 4.6 Opus, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.4 Pro) carries determinism probes, input ablations, and bootstrap CIs, and reaches anchor panel $\alpha = 0.77$ on the 15 cells against human-panel $\alpha = 0.36$. The high LLM-panel $\alpha$ reflects systematic convergence on the majority reading rather than balanced reproduction of both readings; a benchmark that selects its LLM judge by maximising agreement with a human reference panel will inherit this asymmetry by construction.

10.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Semiclassical Gravity Efficiently Solves $\mathsf{NP}$-Complete Problems

arXiv:2606.14806v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Assuming the gravitational field is classical and that it couples to quantum fields via the semiclassical Einstein field equations, we show that the weak-field dynamics of a massive and non-relativistic qubit can in principle be used to solve an $\mathsf{NP}$-complete problem in polynomial time. We attribute this vast computational power to the non-linear dynamics afforded by the semiclassical Einstein field equations. Consequently, the above two assumptions entail a violation of the Physical Extended Church–Turing Thesis, which we regard as evidence for the quantization of gravity.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Constitutional Value Potentials: reading and steering internal priority margins in language models

arXiv:2606.15420v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A constitution tells a language model what to value, but little tells us whether it does. Adherence is judged from outputs, and output evidence is most fragile on value conflicts, where what matters is not which value a model mentions but which one it is willing to sacrifice. We provide evidence that this arbitration can be read from activations in a structured margin readout. We introduce Constitutional Value Potentials (CVP). For each value we learn a scalar potential from the hidden state: an internal pressure to preserve that value, supervised not by the prompt but by an independent judge's verdict on which value the model's own response actually preserved. The signed difference of two potentials is a priority margin. A constitutional clause becomes the claim that a margin stays positive, and a single monitor score flags when it does not. The monitor predicts conflict violations with AUROC up to 0.95, beats a strong hidden-state probe, and generalizes to held-out synthetic conflicts across three Qwen2.5 scales. The signal appears as the answer begins, from the prompt tail and first response token. Read this early, the same signal reveals whether an adversarial priority hack has actually pushed the model toward a violation, rather than only whether the prompt looks adversarial. The same directions also support intervention tests: under selected steering settings, moving along a value direction shifts judged trade-offs in the intended direction. Together, these results suggest that some constitution-relevant priorities are accessible as activation-space margins, rather than only as output behavior.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Seeing What Matters: Perceptual Wrapper with Common Randomness for 3D Gaussian Splatting

While 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) achieves impressive real-time rendering, it frequently struggles to synthesize high-frequency textures, a limitation heavily exacerbated in memory-constrained and rate-distortion-optimized (RDO) pipelines. To address this, we propose a versatile 2D perceptual wrapper that enhances the rendered outputs of existing 3DGS representations in a content- and view-dependent manner. Our method leverages a lightweight synthesis network conditioned on pseudo-random Gaussian noise to synthesize perceptually plausible textures. Supervised by Wasserstein Distortion, the network learns to match local feature statistics rather than strictly enforcing pixel-wise reconstruction fidelity, effectively mitigating the blurriness inherent in standard frameworks. We demonstrate the broad applicability of our plug-and-play approach across vanilla, memory-constrained, and RDO 3DGS methods. Comprehensive subjective and objective experiments confirm that our method significantly improves over existing baselines, yielding superior perceptual quality at sharply reduced file or model sizes.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Do Large Language Models Have Emotions?

arXiv:2606.14742v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Do LLMs have emotions? A recent paper from Anthropic reports finding internal representations of emotion concepts in Claude Sonnet 4.5, concluding that the LLM has 'functional emotions.' We evaluate this claim against what is known about how emotions actually function in biological systems. We argue that emotions serve two core functions: the context-sensitive interpretation of situations, and the reorganization of processing across multiple systems in response to those interpretations. The Anthropic findings offer partial support for the first function, though the consistent, discrete emotional representations identified in Claude sit uneasily with affective neuroscience findings that human emotion is characterized by variable rather than uniform neural signatures. On the second function, the evidence is mixed: Claude's representations modulate output without producing the dynamic reorganization of attention, decision speed, and motivational state that defines emotion in biological systems. We close by proposing what it would take for an LLM to have emotions.

16.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Cayley's First Hyperdeterminant is an Entanglement Measure

arXiv:2504.15511v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Previously, it was shown that both the concurrence and $n$-tangle on $2n$-qubit pure quantum states can be expressed in terms of Cayley's first hyperdeterminant [dobes2024qubits], indicating that Cayley's first hyperdeterminant, denoted $\mathrm{hdet}$, captures some aspects of a state's $2n$-way entanglement. In this paper, we rigorously prove that on both pure and mixed states, $|\mathrm{hdet}|^{2/d}$ is identically zero on separable states, is an LU invariant, and is non-increasing on average under LOCC, thus demonstrating that $|\mathrm{hdet}|^{d/2}$ is a physically meaningful and legitimate entanglement measure. Moreover, we discuss a few key examples to illustrate the particular type of entanglement Cayley's first hyperdeterminant is detecting: genuine full $d$-level GHZ-type entanglement across all $2n$ parties. Combined, this establishes Cayley's first hyperdeterminant (or $|\mathrm{hdet}|^{2/d}$ to be precise), as a genuine, physically significant generalization of the concurrence and the $n$-tangle to $2n$-qudit states.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Benign in Isolation, Harmful in Composition: Security Risks in Agent Skill Ecosystems

arXiv:2606.15242v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Skills are becoming the capability layer through which LLM agents turn plans into actions, but their use introduces security risks such as data leakage, unauthorized operations, and tool misuse. Existing vetting usually evaluates each skill in isolation, while real agent tasks often invoke multiple skills in a shared execution context. This creates Skill Composition Risk (SCR): a skill that appears benign alone can become harmful when its outputs, trust signals, authorization cues, or side effects influence later invocations along an activated path. We introduce SCR-Bench to evaluate this risk in controlled, sandboxed skill environments. Rather than relying only on textual intent or surface behavior, SCR-Bench records downstream state changes and path-level outcomes across composed skill executions. It contains three sub-benchmarks: SCR-CapFlow for capability-flow composition, SCR-TrustLift for trust-transfer composition, and SCR-AuthBlur for authorization-confusion composition. Across SCR-Bench, composed paths expose risks that are largely absent under isolated evaluation. In SCR-CapFlow, attack success rate reaches 33.6 percent under composition, compared with near-zero isolated baselines. In SCR-TrustLift, attack success rate exceeds 96.5 percent on four of five backends. In SCR-AuthBlur, the risky-approval rate increases by 71.8 percent relative to the L0 isolated baseline under the L1 context setting. These results show that agent skill security should be assessed at the level of activated paths rather than isolated artifacts. SCR and SCR-Bench provide a foundation for path-aware risk evaluation and defense in LLM agent skill ecosystems. Benchmark: https://github.com/saint-viperx/SCR_Bench.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Improving Scientific Document Retrieval with Academic Concept Index

arXiv:2601.00567v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Adapting general-domain retrievers to scientific domains is challenging due to the scarcity of large-scale domain-specific relevance annotations and the substantial mismatch in vocabulary and information needs. Recent approaches address these issues through two independent directions that leverage large language models (LLMs): (1) generating synthetic queries for fine-tuning, and (2) generating auxiliary contexts to support relevance matching. However, both directions overlook the diverse academic concepts embedded within scientific documents, often producing redundant or conceptually narrow queries and contexts. To address this limitation, we introduce an academic concept index, which extracts key concepts from papers and organizes them guided by an academic taxonomy. This structured index serves as a foundation for improving both directions. First, we enhance the synthetic query generation with concept coverage-based generation (CCQGen), which adaptively conditions LLMs on uncovered concepts to generate complementary queries with broader concept coverage. Second, we strengthen the context augmentation with concept-focused auxiliary contexts (CCExpand), which leverages a set of document snippets that serve as concise responses to the concept-aware CCQGen queries. Extensive experiments show that incorporating the academic concept index into both query generation and context augmentation leads to higher-quality queries, better conceptual alignment, and improved retrieval performance.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Prism: Cost-Efficient Multi-LLM Serving via GPU Memory Ballooning

arXiv:2505.04021v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Inference providers must maintain availability for many LLMs, including low-volume but essential models, making resource efficiency increasingly important as token prices fall. Analysis of production traces reveals a dynamic bursty-group pattern in which sets of models become active together and shift over time; existing space- and time-sharing approaches lack principled mechanisms to adapt to this variability, forcing trade-offs between SLO adherence and efficiency. We observe that elastic memory allocation can unify spatial and temporal sharing. Based on this insight, we have developed Prism, a memory-centric LLM co-serving framework that applies memory ballooning to reclaim memory across models and support both forms of sharing under a single scheme. Prism's balloon driver, referred to as kvcached, has been open-sourced at https://github.com/ovg-project/kvcached, and deployed in production environments across 10K+ GPUs.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Temporal Self-Imitation Learning

arXiv:2606.19752v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Long-horizon robot manipulation policies trained with reward shaping can still exploit dense rewards through inefficient interaction, while rare efficient behaviors may be forgotten during training. We argue that temporal efficiency itself provides a powerful and underutilized source of self-supervision for reinforcement learning. We introduce Temporal Self-Imitation Learning (TSIL), a reinforcement learning framework that mines temporally efficient successful trajectories generated during learning and converts them into reusable supervision for future policy improvement. TSIL progressively refines learning using configuration-conditioned adaptive temporal targets derived from fast successful trajectories, while preserving and replaying efficient behaviors through efficiency-weighted self-imitation learning. Across 15 distinct long-horizon manipulation tasks, TSIL consistently improves learning efficiency, task-completion efficiency, revisitation of fast successful behaviors, and robustness to unstable training conditions. More broadly, our results suggest that the temporal structure of successful behavior itself provides a scalable self-supervisory signal for reinforcement learning beyond manually engineered reward shaping alone.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Connecting entanglement growth with local integrals of motion in the disordered Fermi-Hubbard model

arXiv:2606.15481v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generically a quantum system initialized in an unentangled state will, under unitary dynamics, rapidly become entangled, a process closely related to information transport and to thermalization. Disorder can suppress the growth of entanglement and result in memory of initial conditions. In non-interacting systems this arises from localization of single-particle states, the occupancy of which is fixed by the initial condition. In interacting systems similar localized conserved quantities persist, but with the added feature that they are coupled, resulting in entanglement growth which is distinct from both non-interacting localized systems and from generic ergodic systems. The Fermi-Hubbard model has two degrees of freedom per site – charge and spin – and disorder may be present in both of these. We study the growth of entanglement in two scenarios – disorder in charge equal and unequal to that in spin, and determine the distinct contributions of charge and spin degrees of freedom by expanding the Hamiltonian in terms of a set of optimally localized conserved quantities with separate charge and spin character. We find that coupling between charge and spin is significantly weaker than charge-charge and spin-spin coupling. While this decoupling is present in all our results, it is only apparent when the strength of the disorder in the two sectors is different such that there is a separation between the characteristic timescales of the contributions to entanglement made by charge and by spin.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management

arXiv:2501.00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints. While deep learning approaches show predictive capability, their opacity limits practical adoption, and single large language model (LLM) agents struggle to process the breadth of modality-specific inputs needed for robust decision-making. We propose a multi-agent system (MAS) framework in which three modality-specialised agents, a Crypto Agent for market dynamics, a News Agent for weekly news sentiment, and a Trading Agent for signal fusion and portfolio execution, decompose the task across three communication architectures: hierarchical, collaborative, and debate. We evaluate four capability configurations: zero-shot, chain-of-thought (CoT), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and skill-augmented. In a 52-week backtest over calendar year 2025 across the top 15 L1 blockchain native cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation as of January 2025, the best configuration, Hierarchical (Skill), achieves a cumulative return of 133.52% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.502, outperforming single-agent variants, passive benchmarks, and deep learning baselines. An ablation study identifies the Crypto Agent as the most critical component, with its removal reducing cumulative return by 42.57 percentage points. A cross-model comparison further shows that MAS outperforms the single-agent baseline under GPT-4o, GPT-5, and Claude Sonnet 4.5, suggesting that the benefit of multi-agent coordination is model-agnostic. Unlike black-box deep learning models, every portfolio decision is traceable to explicit agent reasoning, offering an interpretable and effective approach to multi-modal cryptocurrency portfolio management.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network for Modeling Health-State Transition Probabilities in Temporally Irregular Data: The LANTERN Framework

arXiv:2606.13880v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate estimation of long-term care transition probabilities is central to disability insurance pricing, reserving, and solvency assessment. Classical actuarial multi-state models commonly rely on Markov, semi-Markov, or proportional-hazard specifications, which provide a direct connection to cohort projection but may be restrictive for irregular longitudinal health data with nonlinear aging patterns and heterogeneous covariate histories. This paper develops a well-calibrated estimator of multi-state transition probabilities for irregular longitudinal health data. The model learns from individual health history, incorporates the time elapsed between observations, and conditions transition probabilities on demographic and socioeconomic attributes. It produces a valid probability distribution over the next observed health state, with four possible states: healthy, mild disability, severe disability, and death. Individual probabilities are aggregated by age group and origin state to form transition matrices compatible with actuarial cohort projection. Using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare the proposed estimator with logistic regression, gradient-boosted trees, a recurrent neural network, and a last-state persistence benchmark. The evaluation considers probabilistic accuracy, endpoint discrimination and calibration for severe disability and death, risk concentration, and transition matrix error after aggregation. The proposed estimator improves severe disability discrimination relative to logistic regression and gradient-boosted tree benchmarks, maintains strong calibration, and yields the lowest transition matrix error among the evaluated models in the held-out test analysis. Results show that a structured machine learning estimator can support long-term care transition modeling when judged by calibration and projection fidelity, beyond discrimination.

24.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Towards Interpretability of Neural Quantum States

arXiv:2508.14152v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Neural quantum states (NQS) have emerged as a powerful variational ansatz for representing quantum many-body wave functions. Their internal mechanisms, however, remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of correlations for NQS-like quantum state representation by employing a correlation-based interpretable neural network architecture and then proving our observations using Boolean function theory. The correlator neural network demonstrates that, even for simple product states, up to all system-size correlation orders in the chosen computational basis are required to represent a quantum state faithfully. We explain these observations using Fourier expansion, which reveals the correlator basis as the effective basis of the internal NQS structure, the resulting necessity for high-order correlations that is supported by an entanglement bound that scales with the correlation order, consequences of linear dependencies in constrained Hilbert spaces for correlation requirements, and connections between spin basis rotations and the correlator basis. Furthermore, we analyze how neural networks achieve high correlation orders by increasing the magnitude of the network weights, which can be compensated by increasing the network depth. Lastly, we discuss how activation functions, network architectures, and choice of reference basis influence correlation requirements. Our results provide new insights and a better understanding of the internal structure and requirements of NQS, enabling a more systematic use of NQS in future research.

25.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning

arXiv:2606.05878v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder–regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.