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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

A fast direct solver based neural network for solving PDEs

arXiv:2606.19895v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The matrices arising from large scale $N$-body problems can be efficiently represented using hierarchical matrices, whose key idea is that the admissible off-diagonal sub-matrices can be well approximated by low-rank matrices across a hierarchy of matrix partitions. HODLR (Hierarchical Off-Diagonal Low-Rank) matrices are a subclass of hierarchical matrices in which all off-diagonal submatrices at every level of a recursive binary partition are low-rank. In this article, we present a neural network that learns the inverse operation of HODLR matrices based on the fast direct solver for HODLR matrices developed by Ambikasaran and Darve (2013). We further extend the architecture to learn nonlinear solution operators associated with PDEs by replacing some of the linear layers with deep sub-networks. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed architecture by performing a comprehensive set of experiments that include (i) solving a linear problem such as the Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, (ii) solving PDEs such as the nonlinear Schrödinger equation, Burgers' equation, and the steady-state Darcy's flow equation, (iii) generalization study across varying parameter values, (iv) comparing the inference time of the proposed network with the run time of a classical numerical solver, and (v) comparing the proposed network with some of the existing neural operator learning networks.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Camera and LiDAR BEV Fusion for Cooperative 3D Object Detection on TUMTraf V2X

We describe a Camera and LiDAR fusion detector developed for the TUMTraf V2X cooperative 3D object detection track of the DriveX 2026 challenge. The detector fuses three roadside cameras with a fused infrastructure-plus-vehicle point cloud in a shared bird's-eye-view space and predicts boxes through a CenterPoint-style head with a generalized IoU regression loss and an IoU quality re-ranking head. Trained on the provided train and validation splits, the model reaches a 3D mAP of 0.85 on the public Codabench test split. While iterating on the system, we observed that 44 of the 50 test frames are also present in the released train (40) and validation (4) splits with their labels. We therefore conducted two additional studies to quantify how this overlap affects the final score: (1) a finetuning run that oversamples the 44 overlapping frames, reaching 0.89 mAP, and (2) a post-processing run that replaces predictions on those frames with the released ground truth, reaching 0.99 mAP (uploaded to our Codabench account for testing but not published on the leaderboard). All three configurations and their per-class results are reported.

03.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-22

Biological aging and generational shifts in early-onset cancer risk

作者:

Incidence of early-onset cancer is rising globally in recent generations, which underscores the need to elucidate the influence of emerging generational risk factors. Systemic and organ-specific aging reflects the cumulative impact of exposures and may provide an integrative and complementary approach to understand early-onset cancer risk. Here among 154,169 young adults from the United Kingdom Biobank, systemic aging measured by PhenoAge increased across birth cohorts, with 23% s.d. increase for those born 1965–1974 versus 1950–1954, and was associated with early-onset solid cancer risk (hazard ratio (HR)per s.d. 1.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–1.13), driven by lung, gastrointestinal and uterine cancers, independent of genetic risks of aging and cancer. Patterns were consistent using alternative systemic aging measures, including the Klemera–Doubal method-defined age gap and metabolomic-based age gap. These findings were validated partially among 10,262 participants in the United States All of Us Research Program. Proteomics-based organ-specific aging analyses linked immune aging with early-onset lung cancer (HRper s.d. 1.89; CI, 1.20–2.97) and adipose tissue aging to early-onset colorectal cancer (HR 1.60; CI, 1.11–2.32). Greater age gap, reflecting more advanced biological aging relative to chronological age, may serve as a driver associated with risk of early-onset solid cancers, highlighting the importance of uncovering underlying mechanisms to guide effective prevention strategies. Analyses of population cohorts found that young adults exhibited earlier systemic and organ-specific aging, which was associated with increased risk of early-onset cancer compared with older adults born decades earlier.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Dual-Uncertainty Guided Policy Learning for Multimodal Reasoning

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has advanced reasoning capabilities in multimodal large language models. However, existing methods typically treat visual inputs as deterministic, overlooking the perceptual ambiguity inherent to the visual modality. Consequently, they fail to distinguish whether a model's uncertainty stems from complex reasoning or ambiguous perception, preventing the targeted allocation of exploration or learning signals. To address this gap, we introduce DUPL, a dual-uncertainty guided policy learning approach for multimodal RLVR that quantifies and leverages both perceptual uncertainty (via symmetric KL divergence) and output uncertainty (via policy entropy) to guide policy updates. By establishing an uncertainty-driven feedback loop and employing a dynamic branch prioritization mechanism, DUPL recalibrates the policy advantage to focus learning on states with high perceptual or decisional ambiguity, enabling effective targeted exploration beyond passive data augmentation. Evaluated on diverse multimodal reasoning benchmarks spanning mathematical and general domains, DUPL achieves solid gains. It improves Qwen2.5-VL accuracy by up to $12.3%$ (3B) and $7.9%$ (7B), and Qwen3-VL-Instruct by up to $10.7%$ (4B) and $12.4%$ (8B), consistently outperforming GRPO, while seamlessly generalizing to alternative algorithms (DAPO, $+6.5%$ avg) and architectures (LLaVA-OneVision-1.5, $+4.7%$ avg). These results demonstrate that DUPL is an effective and generalizable approach for multimodal RLVR.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Efficient Temporal Modeling for Mobile Sleep Staging via Lightweight Random Attention

arXiv:2606.13694v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mobile sleep staging serves as a foundational infrastructure for in-home sleep monitoring and closed-loop modulation. But existing sequential models such as RNNs and Transformers are computationally expensive for mobile deployment. In this paper, we propose Random Attention (RA), a lightweight temporal modeling module based on fixed random projections, which replaces learnable sequence modeling with similarity-based aggregation. RA introduces little additional parameters beyond the epoch encoder while enabling effective temporal smoothing. We further provide a theoretical interpretation via the Random Attention Prior Kernel (RAPK), which decomposes RA into a global smoothing term and a feature similarity term, offering an interpretable view of temporal sleep structure. Experiments on Sleep-EDF-20 and Sleep-EDF-78 show that RA consistently improves epoch-wise baselines by 1-3\% in accuracy and F1 score, while achieving competitive performance compared with LSTM, GRU, and Transformer models. RA also demonstrates strong generalization across different backbone encoders and improved robustness over conventional temporal smoothing methods. These results indicate that efficient sleep staging can be achieved through lightweight similarity-based temporal aggregation, making RA suitable for real-time wearable applications.

06.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

A Theory of Training Profit-Optimal LLMs

arXiv:2605.16430v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Scaling LLMs requires tremendous computational resources, and recent advances in AI have gone hand in hand with massive amounts of capital expenditure. While it is established that scaling up LLMs reliably increases model quality (quantified in terms of loss or downstream evaluations), it is unclear how these quality improvements translate to potential revenue, and whether revenue increases would offset costs of larger-scale training and inference. In this work, we develop an economic model for characterizing the rational behavior of an LLM training firm by combining scaling laws with microeconomic theory. Under our model of firm behavior, LLM quality can be increased with more parameters and training tokens, leading to more potential adoption by consumers, who each have a quality threshold for using the LLM. On the other hand, additional parameters and training tokens both incur additional costs. We analyze the profit maximization problem for this model under compute-bound and data-bound regimes. In the compute-bound regime, optimal model size and token budget track hardware efficiency $E$ (FLOPs/\$) at a near-linear rate; total training cost then scales sub-quadratically in $E$. Data efficiency improvements incentivize larger models and training expenditure. When we are limited to $D$ data, profit-optimal training expenditure scales as $D^2/E$, i.e, increase with data and decreases with hardware efficiency (as well as data efficiency). Finally, we analyze practical trends in training expenditure: current trends are consistent with our most permissive model variants in the compute-bound regime, but are not profit-optimal in the data-bound regime or assuming hardware advances will stall. Overall, our results provide a theory of profit-optimal LLM training, providing a foundation for engaging critically with industry statements and supporting long-term economic decision making.

07.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-19

Simulation-based Bayesian deep learning enables uncertainty-aware tumor fraction estimation in cell-free DNA

Background: Estimating tumor fraction from whole-genome cell-free DNA sequencing is critical for liquid biopsy, but is hampered by weak signals and baseline noise at low tumor fractions. Existing computational methods often require matched controls or large labeled datasets for training and lack uncertainty quantification. To address these gaps, we developed purNPE, a Bayesian deep-learning framework trained without labeled cancer cell-free DNA samples. Specifically, purNPE leverages a two-part generative model: one component simulates diverse tumor copy-number profiles based on evolutionary genealogies, while a second, data-driven component learns and replicates realistic sequencing background patterns from cancer-free cell-free DNA. By training a Neural Posterior Estimator on synthetic tumor profiles augmented with learned noise, purNPE performs amortized inference in milliseconds without needing a reference sample set at inference. Results: In a real-world pan-cancer cohort, purNPE achieved comparable performance with existing methods against orthogonal mutant-allele-fraction validation (MAE = 0.066). In silico and semi-synthetic experiments suggested analytical sensitivity around 1% tumor fraction under the evaluated conditions and showed strong classification accuracy in low tumor fractions (AUC = 0.98 for TF [≤] 3% versus controls). Conclusions: This work provides a framework for using simulation-based inference to derive calibrated, uncertainty-aware TF estimates, offering a potential alternative to traditional data-dependent methods.

08.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

Deep learning four decades of human migration

Human migration is a fundamental driver of global demographic change, shaping population structure, labour markets and social policy across countries1–3. Although long-term migration patterns are often linked to economic development4, they can shift rapidly in response to shocks such as conflict, environmental crises and political change5. Despite its importance, migration remains difficult to measure consistently: existing data are sparse, concentrated in high-income settings and are fragmented across incompatible definitions, temporal resolutions and data types6–8. Past efforts have relied on partial datasets, including flow records, stock estimates and model-based reconstructions with limited coverage9–14. A central challenge is therefore to construct a globally consistent, high-resolution account of migration flows over time. Here we present a new dataset of annual origin-destination migration across 230 countries and regions from 1990 to the present, integrating diverse data sources into a unified modelling framework. By combining official statistics, census-based stocks, net migration estimates and past flow reconstructions, our approach produces temporally detailed and spatially comprehensive estimates that substantially extend existing resources. Using an ensemble of deep recurrent neural networks informed by geographic, economic, cultural and political covariates, we capture both persistent trends and short-term responses to changing conditions—all while propagating uncertainty to generate confidence bounds. Our results outperform existing five-year flow estimates on held-out data and provide finer temporal resolution, revealing previously obscured dynamics in global migration patterns. This framework highlights regions in which uncertainty remains high and data collection is most urgently needed. By releasing all data, code and trained models, we provide a transparent and reproducible foundation for future work. These advances enable a more timely and detailed understanding of human mobility, with implications for research and policy in an increasingly dynamic global system. A global annual migration-flow dataset (1990–2024) is produced using deep-learning models and diverse sources to estimate movements across 230 countries with improved temporal resolution, coverage and uncertainty estimates.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

Adapting Prithvi-EO for Fallow Detection for Food-Water Nexus: ViT-Adapter Necks and Parameter-Efficient Backbone tuning of Geospatial Foundation Model

Understanding spatial distribution of fallow land is important for optimizing the food-water (FW) nexus, given fallowing's role in crop rotation and water conservation. Fallow is a low accuracy class in USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Geospatial foundation model (GFM), Prithvi-EO has shown strong transferability across computer vision tasks. However, its Vision Transformer (ViT) backbone produces features at a single spatial scale that are ill-suited for the multi-scale features required by object detection heads. Existing approaches synthesise multi-scale pyramids through scaling of single stride tokens, sacrificing spatial heterogeneity, and full backbone fine-tuning is computationally prohibitive for GFMs. We evaluate a fallow detection pipeline combining two parameter-efficient fine tuning (PEFT) schemes: Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and a hybrid PEFT, with three neck designs: pseudo multi-scale, Lite ViT-Adapter, and Full ViT-Adapter. Our best configuration, Lite ViT-Adapter with a one-stage head, achieves a mAP@50 of 0.9479 with the Diou loss, suggesting the effectiveness of center-aware localization for irregular fallow field detection. ViT-Adapter free one-stage detection under LoRA improves the adapter-free anchor-based approach by 6.42%, and the best configuration improves baseline adapter-free anchor-based approach by 25.70%. These results demonstrate that lightweight spatial prior fusion and selective backbone unfreezing enable Prithvi-EO to capture local fallow patterns more effectively, outperforming approaches that rely on reshaped single-stride ViT tokens.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Surrogate-Assisted Framework for SI-Compliant Interconnect Design Optimization Using the Earth Mover's Distance

arXiv:2606.15234v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents a deterministic, machine-assisted framework for SI-compliant PCB design based on the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD). In contrast to conventional surrogate-based optimization methods that rely on iterative black-box search procedures, the proposed approach follows an interpretable, sequential evaluation strategy. Neural surrogate models are first used to efficiently predict waveform describing features from topology-dependent design parameters. A decision tree then acts as a physically motivated quality gate that identifies SI-compliant waveforms according to predefined SI criteria. Within the resulting valid solution space, the Earth Mover's Distance is employed as a similarity metric to rank candidate designs according to their proximity to an ideal reference signal. This enables not only the deterministic identification of admissible parameter regions but also a transparent prioritization of physically superior solutions without inverse modeling or stochastic search procedures. The methodology is demonstrated using a large-scale set of simulated DDR3 fly-by waveforms. By combining surrogate prediction, interpretable classification, and EMD-based waveform evaluation, the framework provides an explainable and computationally efficient alternative to conventional optimization strategies for supporting PCB development with AI-based methods.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

3D-RFT: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for Video-based 3D Scene Understanding

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards ( RLVR ) has emerged as a transformative paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models ( LLMs), yet its potential in 3D scene understanding remains under-explored. Existing approaches largely rely on Supervised Fine-Tuning ( SFT), where the token-level cross-entropy loss acts as an indirect proxy for optimization, leading to a misalignment between training objectives and task performances. To bridge this gap, we present Reinforcement Fine-Tuning for Video-based 3D Scene Understanding (3D-RFT ), the first framework to extend RLVR to video-based 3D perception and reasoning. 3D-RFT shifts the paradigm by directly optimizing the model towards evaluation metrics. 3D-RFT first activates 3D-aware Multi-modal Large Language Models ( MLLM s) via SFT, followed by reinforcement fine-tuning using Group Relative Policy Optimization ( GRPO) with strictly verifiable reward functions. We design task-specific reward functions directly from metrics like 3D IoU and F1-Score to provide more effective signals to guide model training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that 3D-RFT-4B achieves state-of-the-art performance on various video-based 3D scene understanding tasks. Notably, 3D-RFT-4B significantly outperforms larger models (e.g., VG LLM-8B) on 3D video detection, 3D visual grounding, and spatial reasoning benchmarks. We further reveal good properties of 3D-RFT such as robust efficacy, and valuable insights into training strategies and data impact. We hope 3D-RFT can serve as a robust and promising paradigm for future development of 3D scene understanding.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Mask-Morph Graph U-Net: A Generalisable Mesh-Based Surrogate for Crashworthiness Field Prediction under Large Geometric Variation

arXiv:2605.15231v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Nonlinear finite element crash simulations are accurate but computationally expensive, limiting their use in iterative design optimisation. Machine-learning surrogate models based on graph neural networks (GNNs) offer a faster alternative. Message-passing GNNs are widely used for mesh simulation, and their shared node and edge update functions are relatively generalisable across varying graph structures. By contrast, non-shareable edge-specific aggregation layers can capture nonlinear relationships more accurately but usually require fixed graph connectivity, which limits generalisability. This paper presents Mask-Morph Graph U-Net (MMGUNet), a practical approach to addressing the limitation of hierarchical Graph U-Net architectures that use edge-specific downsampling and upsampling layers. Fixed coarse graph connectivity is required for edge-specific layers. To retain this while improving spatial correspondence, the proposed method morphs the coarsened graph hierarchy to each input mesh using feature-aligned barycentric parameterisation before constructing cross-graph edges. It further applies node masking during supervised pretraining, followed by parameter-efficient fine-tuning in which high-parameter edge-specific layers are frozen. The proposed approach is evaluated in in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and cross-component transfer settings using mean Euclidean distance and maximum intrusion percentage error. Results show that coarse-graph morphing improves test accuracy relative to a fixed-coarse-graph baseline, while masked supervised pretraining reduces the train-test discrepancy and improves data efficiency during transfer. The proposed model also achieves lower prediction error compared with external baselines. These results demonstrate a practical route toward reusable, data-efficient mesh-based surrogate modelling for crashworthiness design exploration.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Universality in the target arrival statistics of non-conservative search processes

arXiv:2606.16025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Stochastic search processes in which searchers are continuously introduced to and removed from a target search domain are fundamental to a wide class of physical and artificial systems. The theory of such non-conservative search processes is, however, much less developed than for search processes with a fixed number of particles. Here we exploit a natural mapping between non-conservative stochastic search and queueing theory to derive the full time-dependent distribution of target arrivals under minimal assumptions on the underlying search process. Remarkably, we find that the steady-state inter-arrival time distribution is exactly exponential, regardless of the details of the search process, showing a robust universality that emerges directly from the queueing framework. Thus, counterintuitively, the arrival statistics of a non-conservative search process are much simpler than sequential search-and-capture processes involving a fixed number of searchers. This has major implications for target resource accumulation, where the delivery of resources is counter-balanced by their downstream consumption.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

JAMER: Project-Level Code Framework Dataset and Benchmark on Professional Game Engines

Current AI-driven game development has made substantial progress in asset generation, gameplay design, and web-based game coding, yet project-level code engineering on professional game engines remains largely unexplored due to the absence of large-scale datasets and deterministic evaluation methods. We present JamSet and JamBench, the first project-level game code framework dataset and benchmark built on a professional game engine. Our key insight is that Game Jam competitions, community events where developers build complete games under tight time constraints, yield thousands of open-source projects suitable for this purpose. Building on the Godot engine's text-based format and headless execution mode, we design a deterministic verification pipeline from file integrity to runtime behavior collection, distilling 8,133 verified projects from over 240,000 repositories. Of these, 300 manually verified projects form JamBench; the rest constitute JamSet. JamBench defines theme-driven generation and code completion tasks, evaluated through a pipeline combining compilation pass rates, Structural Completeness Score (SCS), and Behavioral Alignment Score (BAS). Evaluation of 9 frontier models reveals a capability cliff as project scale increases, with runtime pass rates dropping from 80.4% on small projects to 5.7% on large ones (Task2a). Code Agents improve compilation rates yet yield no gains in runtime behavioral quality, indicating that the bottleneck lies in architectural design rather than syntactic correctness. Experiments validate JamSet as effective training data. All data and code are publicly available.

15.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

GD$^2$PO: Mitigating Multi-Reward Conflicts via Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization

arXiv:2606.16771v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As LLMs advance, post-training reinforcement learning (RL) increasingly relies on multi-dimensional rewards to cultivate comprehensive capabilities. This shift demands new algorithms capable of optimizing diverse and potentially competing objectives simultaneously. To address this, existing methods such as Group reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GDPO) decompose the overall score into independent reward groups, then compute the RL loss separately within each group. However, this strategy still encounters multi-reward conflicts: a single rollout can yield positive advantages on certain reward dimensions but negative ones on others, causing opposing signals to cancel each other out during aggregation, further hindering RL training efficiency. Inspired by Dynamic sAmpling Policy Optimization (DAPO), which improves RL training efficiency by filtering out ineffective rollouts with near-zero advantages, we propose Group-Dynamic reward-Decoupled Policy Optimization (GD$^2$PO). Specifically, GD$^2$PO employs a conflict-aware filtering mechanism to mask out rollouts suffering from severe reward-wise disagreement. By preventing conflicting signals from canceling each other out, this masking strategy preserves and enhances the magnitude of effective RL advantages, thereby significantly accelerating learning efficiency. Furthermore, we introduce query-level reweighting to dynamically adjust the update intensity of each query based on its overall reward consensus. Experiments on various multi-reward scenarios, including tool calling and human preference alignment, demonstrate that GD$^2$PO consistently and significantly outperforms existing baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/GD2PO.

16.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Cucurbituril-based anion-conducting membranes with supramolecular nanopores

作者:

Nanoporous anion-conducting membranes have gained considerable interest for their potential to reduce resistance in electrochemical devices1–4. Current pore-forming methods, such as backbone engineering through polymers of intrinsic microporosity5,6 or covalent organic and metal–organic frameworks7,8, however, suffer from limited structural control, mechanical fragility or demanding synthesis. Here we establish a supramolecular strategy that overcomes these limitations by constructing uniform, dynamic nanopores. Co-assembly of the rigid macrocyclic host cucurbit[7]uril with the cationic polymer guest quaternized poly(piperidinium-terphenyl) yields a robust network of nanometre-scale channels while simultaneously enhancing mechanical and chemical stability. The dynamic host–guest interactions allow the pore structure to fluctuate on picosecond and angstrom scales. This transient environment supports low-friction hydroxide migration through a Grotthuss mechanism, producing a marked enhancement in ionic conductivity. This bottom-up design principle provides a versatile new tool for molecularly engineering transport pathways and promises to advance electrochemical reactors with respect to energy efficiency, operational stability and the production of high-purity products. A supramolecular strategy, in which uniform, dynamic nanopores are constructed, overcomes the limitations of limited structural control, mechanical fragility or demanding synthesis in nanoporous anion-conducting membranes, providing a versatile tool for molecularly engineering transport pathways.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Stable Menus of Public Goods: AI-Enabled Progress

作者:

arXiv:2606.16989v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Using an open problem from the EC 2025 paper "Stable Menus of Public Goods" as a testbed, we conduct experiments to understand the effectiveness of different AI-for-EconCS research workflows. Specifically, we study three questions: Does providing human intuition in the prompt help? Does automated multi-turn interaction help? And, does an LLM outperform a first-year PhD student? Regarding the first two questions, we provide evidence for the following workflow suggestions: (1) prompting with human intuition can encourage the LLM to have better "taste", (2) multi-turn workflows help when the pipeline encourages "ambitious" steps. Regarding the third question, using an unpublished manuscript written by the paper's senior authors prior to collaborating with the first-year PhD student, we compare the effectiveness of the LLM with that of the first-year PhD student, and find that the LLM is slightly less effective.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Towards an Agent-First Web: Redesigning the Web for AI Agents

arXiv:2606.19116v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The World Wide Web was built on an assumption held for three decades: the primary consumer of web content is a human being. This permeates every layer; its access model presumes human visitors, its economics rest on human attention, and its content targets human perception. The rapid emergence of AI agents as intermediaries between humans and web content invalidates this assumption. Yet the web resists agents through blanket blocking, CAPTCHA-based exclusion, and economic models that treat agent access as extraction rather than legitimate interaction. This paper proposes a principled redesign across three layers. At the access layer, agents acting for humans should inherit equivalent access rights, governed by rate limiting and agent identification metadata in HTTP requests, analogous to browser headers, alongside a dual-layer architecture serving human-readable and agent-optimized content from the same domain. At the economic layer, we propose an intent-based tier framework grounded in the agent-as-human-proxy principle: an agent's economic obligation mirrors that of the human it represents. A token-based subscription model meters content in tokens rather than pageviews, alongside a commissioned content economy anchoring AI content production in human intentionality. At the content layer, we identify epistemic recursion, the self-referential loop in which AI-generated content is consumed by agents to produce further content, progressively detaching web knowledge from human ground truth. We propose the Agent Text Markup Language (ATML), a four-level human supervision tier model, and a cryptographic provenance chain to counter this threat. Together these constitute ten design principles for an agent-first internet, one in which agents are first-class citizens whose integration requires renegotiating the web's foundational social contract across access, economics, and content.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems

arXiv:2606.12997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two dominant approaches have emerged for generating probabilistic forecasts of physical systems: generative models, such as diffusion or flow matching; and ensembles of deterministic models with stochasticity injected, trained using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) loss. While both approaches have demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, the reliability of their uncertainties has not been systematically assessed. We address this gap by developing a framework to evaluate both approaches across diverse 2D spatiotemporal physical systems, under matched model size and computational budget. We assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation by inspecting the empirical coverage of predictive intervals, while also considering accuracy and computational efficiency metrics. CRPS-trained ensembles typically achieve more reliable uncertainties on both single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts, demonstrating better coverage than the standard alternative of training generative models in a latent space. Moreover, the CRPS approach offers significantly faster inference. When generative models are trained in ambient rather than a compressed latent space, which is often infeasible for high-dimensional problems, they exhibit comparable coverage to CRPS-trained ensembles, though with substantially larger inference latency. In contrast, when CRPS-trained ensembles are trained in latent space they do not show a marked degradation in coverage with respect to ambient space. Both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles demonstrate good predictive accuracy. To facilitate future research and application, we release AutoCast, a modular framework implementing both generative models and CRPS-trained ensembles, alongside AutoSim, a flexible dataset generation package for rapid prototyping.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

PACUTE: Phonology-, Affix-, and Character-level Understanding of Tokens for Filipino

Large language models (LLMs) process text as sequences of subword tokens, which can obscure the character-level and morphological structure that underlies word formation. This limitation is most acute for languages with non-concatenative morphology, where standard tokenizers systematically misalign token boundaries with morpheme boundaries. We introduce PACUTE, a diagnostic benchmark of 4,600 tasks designed to evaluate morphological understanding in Filipino, a language characterized by productive infixation, reduplication, and diacritic-driven lexical distinctions that are typically absent from written text. PACUTE includes a hierarchical diagnostic framework of six compositional levels that localizes where morphological understanding breaks down. Evaluating open-weight LLMs and frontier commercial models, we find that open-weight models perform near chance on morpheme decomposition regardless of scale. Frontier models perform much better, often recovering individual affixes under contains-match scoring, but remain far below their character-level ceilings on compositional tasks of morpheme transformations and syllabification. These results identify productive morphological composition, rather than character access alone, as the persistent bottleneck for Filipino word-structure understanding.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models in Medical Image Segmentation

Reliable pixel-level uncertainty quantification holds the potential to transform clinical workflows by enabling high-fidelity longitudinal monitoring and distinguishing true pathological changes from artifacts. Ideally, these models provide the stability required for critical treatment planning and surgical intervention. However, standard deep learning models often suffer from miscalibration, yielding overconfident predictions that mask underlying vulnerabilities at subtle pathological boundaries. To address this, we propose QUAM-SM, a post-hoc framework using targeted adversarial search to identify "adversarially fragile" pixels. By actively seeking perturbations that expose predictive instability, our method highlights regions where decisions are most vulnerable to being flipped. Importantly, the framework disentangles epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on two public datasets with multiple expert annotations demonstrate that QUAM-SM outperforms both standard and recent uncertainty estimation approaches in terms of reliability and boundary sensitivity. Code is available at https://github.com/HanaJebril/quam_sm

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Mitigating scalability challenges in LUT-based neural networks via pruning optimisations

arXiv:2407.02362v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Modern deep neural networks heavily rely on a large number of multiply-accumulate operations, which constitute the predominant computational cost. To address this, Look-Up Table (LUT)-based matrix multiplications have emerged as a promising alternative for reducing the computational cost and time of the multiply-accumulate operations in a neural network. However, the LUT-based neural network still faces the scalability challenge due to the inherent limitations of LUT-based matrix multiplication. To mitigate these scalability limitations, this paper proposes a scalable and energy-efficient LUT-based approximate matrix multiplication unit (LUT-MU) constituting the basic component of the neural networks by integrating a pruning strategy on the MADDNESS algorithm, a LUT-based matrix multiplication methodology. With increasing problem size and precision demands in matrix multiplication, our proposed LUT-MU architecture effectively constrains resource expansion. The case study shows that deploying our LUT-MU in neural network architectures, including fully connected layers (MNIST) and ResNets (CIFAR-10, ImageNet)-on XCZU7EV and XCZU19EG FPGAs, produces up to $1.6 \times$ throughput improvement and $4.2 \times$ energy efficiency gains over mainstream CUDA-based network implementations, and $1.8\times$ energy efficiency compared to leading quantised neural network implementations, with moderate impact on accuracy. Compared to original MADDNESS-based neural networks, our LUT-MU shows $1.3$ to $2.6\times$ resource savings based on various resolution configuration settings of MADDNESS.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

Reward-SQL: Boosting Text-to-SQL via Stepwise Execution-Aware Reasoning and Process-Supervised Rewards

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) trained with reinforcement learning (RL) have improved Text-to-SQL performance. However, RL-based approaches still struggle with complex queries due to two key limitations: insufficient stepwise execution-aware reasoning grounded in database feedback, and the lack of process-level rewards for guiding reasoning optimization. To address these issues, we propose CoCTE, a divide-and-conquer and execution-aware reasoning framework that progressively composes SQL queries through intermediate view validation and structured Common Table Expressions (CTEs), improving both accuracy and interpretability. To realize a CoCTE reasoning process, we develop Reward-SQL, a unified approach with three stages: (1) model initialization, which equips LLMs with structured CoCTE reasoning capabilities; (2) process reward design, which delivers fine-grained, execution-aware supervision; and (3) process-supervised RL and inference, which integrates process rewards into training and guides the inference stage by process rewards. This paper addresses the core challenges in Reward-SQL and makes the following contributions. We introduce a process reward model (PRM) that combines execution-aware trajectory scoring with entropy-based step weighting, providing dense and interpretable supervision across reasoning steps. We integrate PRM into both RL training and inference stages, stabilizing optimization and improving trajectory exploration with process-level signals. Experiments show that Reward-SQL significantly outperforms baselines with comparable model sizes, and exhibits strong cross-domain generalization.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

TMR-GGNN: Credit Card Fraud Detection based on Time-Aware Multi-Relational Guided Graph Neural Network

arXiv:2606.18444v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In recent years, credit card fraud detection has faced significant challenges due to highly imbalanced data, evolving fraud patterns, and complex relational structures among transaction entities. To address these issues, this research proposes a novel framework called Timeaware Multi Relational Guided Graph Neural Network (TMR GGNN). Particularly, the proposed TMR GGNN extends the encoder decoder Graph Neural Network GNN architecture by modeling heterogeneous interactions across customers, merchants, devices, and IPs over temporal windows. Subsequently, the proposed TMR GGNN approach constructs a dynamic, multi relational graph and incorporates a time aware relational attention mechanism within the encoder to adaptively weigh the transaction relevance based on temporal proximity and semantic context. Consequently, the decoder employs a contrastive learning module to distinguish between real and synthesized transaction patterns, while improving the models generalization of rare fraud cases. Additionally, to effectively manage severe class imbalances and emphasize discriminative learning, a composite loss function combining Information Noise Contrastive Estimation (InfoNCE) based contrastive loss with Focal Loss is introduced. This integration assists in improving fraud identification while mitigating false negatives.

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arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

CausalMoE: A Billion-Scale Multimodal Foundation Model for Granger Causal Discovery with Pattern-Routed Heterogeneous Experts

arXiv:2606.13024v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Granger Causal Discovery (GCD) is fundamental for analyzing temporal dependencies in complex systems. However, existing neural GCD methods predominantly rely on a "one-size-fits-all" paradigm, struggling to capture distribution shifts and dynamic regime changes inherent in real-world time series. This often leads to entangled representations and spurious causal graphs. In this paper, we propose CausalMoE, a billion-scale multimodal Granger causal foundation model that explicitly models patch-level heterogeneity. CausalMoE introduces a Pattern-Routed Mixture of Heterogeneous Experts, which dynamically identifies latent temporal patterns and routes patches to specialized domain experts, effectively decoupling regime-specific mechanisms from shared dynamics. To ensure interpretable graph recovery, we design a Causality-Aware Self-Attention mechanism operating across variables, yielding sparse Granger causal graphs via proximal optimization. Furthermore, CausalMoE is the first to integrate LLMs and VLMs to align numerical signals with textual and visual priors, regularizing causal estimation in complex scenarios. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalMoE establishes a new state-of-the-art on fully supervised benchmarks, while effectively generalizing to few-shot settings where traditional methods fail.