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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Anomaly Detection via Mean Shift Density Enhancement

arXiv:2602.03293v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Unsupervised anomaly detection stands as an important problem in machine learning. Existing unsupervised anomaly detection algorithms rarely perform well across different anomaly types, often excelling only under specific structural assumptions. This lack of robustness also becomes particularly evident under noisy settings. We propose Mean Shift Density Enhancement (MSDE), a fully unsupervised framework that detects anomalies through their geometric response to density-driven manifold evolution. MSDE is designed as a general purpose anomaly detection framework, based on the principle that normal samples, being well supported by local density, remain stable under iterative density enhancement, whereas anomalous samples undergo large cumulative displacements as they are attracted toward nearby density modes. To operationalize this idea, MSDE employs a weighted mean-shift procedure with adaptive, sample-specific density weights derived from a manifold learning-based fuzzy neighborhood graph. We evaluate MSDE on an anomaly detection benchmark comprising 46 real-world tabular datasets, four realistic anomaly generation mechanisms, and six noise levels. Compared to 13 established unsupervised baselines, MSDE achieves consistently strong, balanced and robust performance for several standard classification metrics, at several noise levels and on average over several types of anomalies. These results demonstrate that displacement-based scoring provides a robust alternative to the existing state-of-the-art for unsupervised anomaly detection.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Stabilizing Bandits using Regularization: Precise Regret and A Quantitative Central Limit Theorem

arXiv:2603.10184v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Statistical inference with bandit data presents fundamental challenges owing to adaptive sampling, which violates the independence assumptions underlying classical asymptotic theory. Recent work has identified stability~\citep{laiwei82} as a sufficient condition for valid inference under adaptivity. This paper first provides a refined stability condition, stated in terms of the iterates of an online algorithm, and shows that a large class of regularized stochastic-mirror-descent-style algorithms satisfy it. This refined condition allows us to strengthen the asymptotic results of~\citet{laiwei82} in several ways. First, we derive a non-asymptotic Berry–Esseen bound for the empirical reward estimates under adaptive sampling. Second, we derive matching non-asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the regret of the proposed algorithm, yielding a precise characterization of its regret. Third, we show that these regularized algorithms preserve asymptotic normality and valid inference under a prescribed level of adversarial corruption. Finally, we show that regularization is necessary rather than incidental: Lai–Wei stability is incompatible with the optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret rate – the rate attained by unregularized algorithms such as EXP3 – so that a controlled, polylogarithmic inflation in regret is the price of valid inference.

03.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Neural Slack Variables for Shape Constraints

arXiv:2606.13803v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Enforcing functional inequality constraints such as monotonicity and convexity in neural networks is a fundamental challenge in many industrial and scientific applications. Classical one-sided penalty methods, along with primal-dual methods gated by complementary slackness, provide constraint gradients only at violated locations, resulting in fragile satisfaction. Architectures that guarantee feasibility by construction, on the other hand, remain largely limited to elementary cases and impose additional inductive biases. We introduce neural slack variables, a deep learning native primal-side approach that converts constraint enforcement into a regression problem by coupling the primary network with a jointly learned auxiliary network. The auxiliary network serves as a valid target for the primary network's constraint quantities, inducing feasibility and regularity. Neural slack variables achieve zero measured violations on dense-grid monotonicity and convexity test cases, where penalty and primal-dual baselines leave residual violations, and enable arbitrage-free learning of volatility surfaces, an open industrial challenge in quantitative finance.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance Constraints to Solve Stochastic Orienteering

arXiv:2606.18514v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural combinatorial optimization (NCO) offers a promising alternative to traditional heuristic-based methods for solving complex graph optimization problems by proposing to learn heuristics through data. This class of problems frequently arises in automation, as it can be used to model a variety of applications. While NCO has been extensively studied for deterministic combinatorial optimization problems, there are only a few works that aim to solve stochastic combinatorial optimization problems. In this work, we present N(CO)$^2$: Neural Combinatorial Optimization with Chance cOnstraints to solve the Stochastic Orienteering Problem (SOP) without the use of hand-crafted heuristics. By integrating a reinforcement learning (RL) framework, the model optimizes path selection under uncertainty, effectively balancing exploration and exploitation. Empirical results demonstrate that our method generalizes well across diverse SOP instances, achieving competitive performance compared to the state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear program (MILP) for the task. The proposed approach reduces human effort in heuristic design while enabling adaptive and efficient decision-making in uncertain environments.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Coercivity and Local Convergence of Physical Learning in Linear Circuits

arXiv:2606.15443v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Physical learning methods train physical networks to perform computational tasks using only local update rules, exploiting the physics of the system to handle the global transfer of information. We provide the first local convergence analysis of three such methods – Equilibrium Propagation (EP), Coupled Learning (CL), and a new method we call Adjoint Coupled Learning (AL) – for linear circuits, in the limit of small-nudging for both discrete and continuous time. EP and AL perform gradient descent on a natural loss function, while CL follows modified dynamics with an additional cubic correction. Assuming the existence of a solution, we identify a coercivity condition, expressed as a rank condition on a matrix built from the network's incidence structure, under which the training loss decays exponentially and the parameters converge to the solution manifold. We show that coercivity can fail by exhibiting a kite circuit in which a symmetry causes the coercivity constant to degenerate on the solution manifold, but prove using Sard's theorem that such degeneracies are non-generic: coercivity holds at every point of the solution manifold for almost every choice of desired output.

06.
PLOS Medicine 2026-05-29

Availability, appeal, and addictiveness by design: Tobacco and nicotine industry deliberate targeting of youth

by Raglan Maddox, Becky Freeman, Charlotta Pisinger, Emily Banks Contemporary tobacco and nicotine products, particularly e-cigarettes, are deliberately designed, marketed, and distributed to maximize youth appeal, uptake, dependence, and use. Youth uptake is a predictable outcome of systems designed to maximize product availability, appeal, and addictiveness. In recognition of the World No Tobacco Day 2026 theme, "unmasking the appeal", this Perspective by Raglan Maddox and colleagues discusses how tobacco and nicotine products, particularly e-cigarettes, are deliberately designed and marketed to maximize youth appeal, and highlight the need for policies to ensure greater industry accountability and to tackle concerning uptake trends.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Neuro-Relational Programs: Unifying Queries and Neural Computation over Structured Data

arXiv:2606.11946v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The conventional approach to deep learning over relational databases applies neural models, such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), to a graph representation of the database. Recent approaches instead operate on databases directly, associating tuples with embeddings and extending query mechanisms to jointly process embeddings and relational content. Inspired by these developments, we introduce Neuro-Relational Programs (NRPs), a declarative query language for relational databases whose facts carry numeric vector embeddings. NRPs extend Datalog-style rules with operations that combine, aggregate, and transform embeddings, thereby interleaving relational reasoning and learnable neural components within a single formalism. This yields a general approach to neural computation over relational data: an NRP can be read both as a query plan with trainable components and as a neural architecture with relational structure built in. Natural syntactic fragments of NRPs recover existing architectures and query formalisms. Zero-ary NRPs correspond to non-adaptive query algorithms; monadic NRPs generalize GNN-style message passing and precisely capture Deep Homomorphism Networks, a connection that we extend to frontier-guarded NRPs over databases with row-ids. We characterize the expressive power of unrestricted NRPs with ReLU-FFN transformations by FOCQ, an extension of first-order logic with counting interpreted over real-weighted structures, yielding a precise connection with uniform TC$^0$ over ordered databases. Together, these results establish NRPs as a broad declarative framework for querying and neural computation over relational data.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Accounting for uncertainty in the expected treatment effect substantially increases the sample size required for randomised trials: implications for the feasibility of clinical trials in anaesthesia and critical care

Background Multicentre trials in anaesthesia and critical care report low rates of statistically significant differences. This finding may partly reflect conventional sample size methods, which assume a fixed treatment effect. Assurance methods use a design prior to represent uncertainty in the expected treatment effect, which may provide a more realistic way of estimating sample sizes. Methods We calculated power curves across a range of effect sizes, design priors, and sample sizes using frequentist and Bayesian assurance methods and compared the sample sizes required to achieve 80% and 90% power to the conventional method. We standardised the design priors across effect sizes using the coefficient of variation. We derived a theoretical limit for achievable power. We validated a normal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution. Results Frequentist and Bayesian assurance methods produced similar power curves across all scenarios. At a coefficient of variation of 0.5 - reflecting realistic prior uncertainty in the expected effect size - both methods required sample sizes that were approximately 1.5 to 3.5 times larger than the conventional method. The theoretical power limit depends only on the coefficient of variation of the design prior and holds true across all effect sizes. The normal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution matched the results obtained from Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Conclusions Incorporating clinical uncertainty in the expected effect size substantially increases the sample size required to achieve adequate power, which has important implications for the feasibility of randomised trials in anaesthesia and critical care.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Descriptive versus Regulatory Uncertainty in Bounded Predictive Systems

arXiv:2605.18909v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Any system that models the world under finite representational capacity must compress; any compression entails a prior; and the prior is the system's bias. What has not been established is whether uncertainty participates in the dynamics governing future behavior, or merely describes the output distribution without consequence. We introduce a structural distinction between descriptive uncertainty, which does not recursively modulate the system's policy, and regulatory uncertainty, which directly enters the optimization landscape and drives persistent adaptive restructuring. We prove formally that current transformer architectures are confined to descriptive uncertainty at inference. We ground this in thermodynamics via Landauer's principle: for uncertainty to be regulatory, epistemic error must cost real energy; in a decoupled system, hallucinations and correct derivations dissipate identical energy. We test this empirically across three locally-deployed language models (3B, 8B, 70B parameters). Token-level Shannon entropy is statistically invariant across tasks spanning pattern retrieval, causal operator application, and out-of-distribution causal generalization in all three models (all pairwise p >= 0.568; within-model ranges 0.011-0.028 nats), while task accuracy varies substantially across the same conditions (0%-100%). Entropy and accuracy are orthogonal. The decoupling is scale-invariant: larger models achieve higher accuracy but identical entropy flatness. This structural incapacity is not resolvable by additional parameters or training data. Genuine epistemic grounding requires physical coupling between thermodynamic substrate state and information processing cost.

10.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

MNet++: Extended 2D/3D Networks for Anisotropic Medical Image Segmentation

This work demonstrates a full reproduction and extension of MNet, a hybrid 2D/3D convolutional network designed for anisotropic medical image segmentation. The original architecture was re-implemented within the nnU-Net framework to verify its reported performance and robustness to variable voxel spacing, known as anisotropy. Experiments were conducted on PROMISE prostate MRI and a controlled subset of LiTS liver CT under matched preprocessing and compute constraints. The reproduced MNet achieved a Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 89.0 +/- 0.9% on PROMISE, within 0.8% of the published result, and 94.3 +/- 1.9% / 54.6 +/- 3.1% for liver and tumor segmentation on LiTS, respectively. Two lightweight extensions were further introduced: (1) a learned Fusion Gating mechanism enabling adaptive 2D-3D feature blending, and (2) a VMamba state-space module for efficient long-range depth modelling. The Spatial Gating variant improved DSC by +0.8% with less than 3% inference overhead, while VMamba improved performance consistency, reducing PROMISE Dice variation to +/- 0.7% and achieving the strongest LiTS liver performance at 95.8% Dice. Both extensions preserved MNet robustness to anisotropy, with delta Dice = 1.5% across 1-4 mm voxel spacing. Overall, the study confirms MNet reproducibility and demonstrates that adaptive fusion and state-space modelling have the potential to further strengthen segmentation reliability under anisotropic conditions. However, further tests are required to provide definitive conclusions.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

SDFLoRA: Selective Decoupled Federated LoRA for Privacy-preserving Fine-tuning with Heterogeneous Clients

arXiv:2601.11219v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) for large language models (LLMs) has attracted increasing attention as a privacy-preserving approach for adapting models over distributed data, where parameter-efficient methods such as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) are widely adopted to reduce communication and memory costs. However, practical deployments often exhibit rank and data heterogeneity: clients operate under different low-rank budgets and data distributions, making direct aggregation of LoRA updates biased and unstable. Existing approaches either enforce a unified rank or align heterogeneous updates into a single shared subspace, which tends to mix transferable and client-specific directions and consequently undermines personalization. Moreover, under differential privacy (DP), perturbing such structurally mixed updates injects noise into directions that should remain purely local, leading to unnecessary utility degradation. To address these issues, we propose Selective Decoupled Federated LoRA (SDFLoRA), a structure-aware LoRA framework that decouples each client update into a shared component for aggregation and a private component that preserves client-specific semantics. Only the shared component participates in subspace alignment, while the private component remains local and uncommunicated, making the training DP-compatible and stabilizing aggregation under rank heterogeneity. By injecting noise only into the aggregated shareable update, this approach avoids perturbations to local directions and improves the utility-privacy trade-off. Experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that SDFLoRA outperforms federated LoRA baselines and achieves a strong utility-privacy trade-off.

12.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Universal Gates with Pauli Strings and Beyond

arXiv:2606.12096v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Any quantum computation consists of a sequence of unitary evolutions described by a finite set of Hamiltonians. For the case where this set consists of only products of Pauli operators, known as Pauli strings, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition for it to generate $\mathfrak{su}(2^n)$, i.e., to be universal for quantum computation on $n$ qubits. When combining Pauli strings with a general Hamiltonian, we show a sufficient (and in certain circumstances even necessary) condition for universality based on the Pauli-basis expansion of the Hamiltonian. As an application of these results, we prove two corollaries: (i) a necessary and sufficient condition for the universality of a general Hamiltonian given arbitrary single-qubit control on all qubits, and (ii) the universality of an XYZ Heisenberg Hamiltonian with local control of just two adjacent qubits.

13.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

DREAM: Dense Retrieval Embeddings via Autoregressive Modeling

Dense retrieval embedding models are a fundamental component of modern retrieval-based AI systems. Most dense retrievers are trained with contrastive objectives, which require labeled positive and negative document pairs that are often costly and difficult to obtain. In this work, we investigate whether the autoregressive next-token prediction objective of a large language model (LLM) can provide supervision for dense retrieval. The intuition is simple: if a document contains information relevant to a query, conditioning on that document should make the target output easier for the LLM to predict. A key challenge is that the next-token prediction loss is computed inside the LLM, while the retriever is a separate embedding model. To address this challenge, we propose DREAM (Dense Retrieval Embeddings via Autoregressive Modeling), which injects retriever-generated query-document similarity scores into selected attention heads of a frozen LLM. During training, these scores determine how much attention each candidate document receives while the LLM predicts the target output. The resulting prediction loss provides gradients for retriever training through the attention mechanism. We evaluate DREAM on retrieval benchmarks BEIR and RTEB using embedding backbones ranging from 0.5B to 3B parameters. DREAM consistently outperforms existing baselines across different model scales. These results demonstrate that DREAM provides a promising approach for training dense retrievers through autoregressive modeling.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

SemChunk-C: Semantic Segmentation for C Code

arXiv:2606.23697v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Semantic segmentation of code written in a C-family language remains a challenging problem, due to the language's complex syntax, macro expansion, and irregular structural patterns. Existing chunking methods, such as fixed-sized windows, heuristic splitting, and syntax-based tools, often fail to capture meaningful functional units, limiting the efficacy of retrieval and other downstream LLM driven tasks. In this paper, we address the problem of chunking in C-related languages. First, we define a set of code chunk categories. Second, we train an LLM-based classifier to a) identify chunk boundaries, and b) assign each chunk a descriptive functional attribute (a category), which can be useful for downstream tasks. By leveraging the LLM's ability to capture semantic context within the code, we assume flexible chunk boundaries, allowing to adapt to the specific structure and context of each instance. Third, we introduce SemChunk-C, a family of lightweight language models for semantic chunking of C-related files (.c, .cpp, .h, .cs, etc.). These models are based on the first four Ettin encoders [1] with 17M, 32M, 68M, and 150M parameters. Despite their relatively small size, they are capable of identifying cohesive code units, such as data structures, interface blocks, and other components. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our approach on real-world code, including challenging constructs such as nested definitions and macros. We test our approach on various datasets, and show that it achieves high boundary accuracy and semantic coherence, matching or outperforming chunkers that are based on much larger code-oriented LLMs. We also validate the improved performance of the downstream tasks on a few curated benchmarks.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-25

Erased, but Not Gone: Output Forgetting Is Not True Forgetting

arXiv:2606.25001v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine unlearning (MU) is commonly judged by output forgetting, such as low forget-set accuracy or reduced logit-level membership inference. But if output-level success can coexist with retraining-inconsistent residuals in representation space, what kind of forgetting are current evaluations actually certifying? We study this question through retraining-consistent representation forgetting, using the retrained model (i.e., trained from scratch without the forget data) as an operational reference for correct forgetting. Across multiple unlearning methods, datasets, and models, our theoretical analysis and empirical results show that standard output-level evaluation can systematically overestimate the success of unlearning. Under this stronger lens, current methods often appear forgotten at the output layer while exhibiting a structured mismatch relative to retraining. They partially align with retraining on forget samples, remain more inconsistent on retain samples, and leave residual discrepancy concentrated along retraining-related directions rather than diffuse in representation space. This structured mismatch is characterized by forget/retain asymmetry, directional mismatch, and concentrated residuals along retraining-related directions. These results suggest that current MU is often evaluated for apparent forgetting rather than retraining-consistent forgetting. More broadly, retraining reveals what output forgetting hides.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

NetCause: Counterfactual Learning for Root Cause Analysis in Large-Scale Networks

arXiv:2606.13543v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Can a learned model capture how faults propagate through a large-scale network and use this knowledge to causally attribute customer impact to its underlying root cause? Existing root cause analysis techniques often rely on static rules, correlation heuristics, or topology-local reasoning, which struggle to generalize in dynamic environments where faults propagate across complex physical and logical dependencies. We present NetCause, a self-supervised learning-based framework that models network incidents as graph-temporal processes and uses counterfactual simulation to rank candidate root causes. This approach produces an interpretable ranking of root cause hypotheses and integrates naturally with operator-defined mitigation and remediation actions. We train the model on over 1,500 incidents collected over six months from a leading cloud provider's production network and evaluate it on 31 expert-labeled incidents. NetCause consistently improves root cause ranking quality in the regime most relevant to operational decision-making, achieving a 16.1% accuracy improvement over a rule-based heuristic baseline. While training is computationally intensive, inference is lightweight, requiring only seconds of GPU runtime per incident (well below typical telemetry collection latencies).

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

MeiBRD: Meta-Learning Intraoperative Biomechanical Residual Deformation

Accurate intraoperative liver registration is challenging due to substantial soft-tissue deformation yet sparse intraoperative measurements. Biomechanical models regularize this ill-posedness with prior knowledge but exhibit persistent prediction bias due to simplifying assumptions, while data-driven learning solutions struggle with data efficiency, generalization, and physical plausibility. We propose a hybrid registration framework that adapts a biomechanical prior using sparse intraoperative correspondences. Rather than learning a full deformation field, we learn a residual deformation function that corrects linear biomechanical predictions, modeled as a graph neural diffusion function with geometry-aware attention over the 3D liver mesh. To enable long-range information transfer of sparse observations, we take a novel perspective of sparse intraoperative measurements as context samples where input-output pairs of the residual deformation function are fully observed, casting the problem into learning-to-learn this residual function from intraoperative context samples with feedforward meta-learners. Experiments on a deformable liver phantom dataset demonstrate improved registration accuracy and generalization compared to rigid, biomechanical, and data-driven baselines, particularly for out-of-distribution geometries and deformations.

18.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

CacheWeaver: Cache-Aware Evidence Ordering for Efficient Grounded RAG Inference

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) improves factual grounding, but it also lengthens prompts and raises prefill cost. Prefix caching in serving engines such as vLLM reduces this cost only when requests share the same token prefix. In grounded generation, however, adjacent queries may retrieve overlapping evidence in different orders, so set overlap does not become reusable prefix overlap. We present CacheWeaver, a lightweight prompt-layer method for cache-aware evidence ordering. The method keeps a prefix tree over recently served evidence sequences and uses a greedy walk to place the most reusable prefix first, while leaving the serving engine and retrieved evidence set unchanged. Across three vLLM configurations, the method lowers median time-to-first-token (TTFT) by about 20-33 percent relative to retrieval-order prefix caching, without hurting answer quality in our QA tests. The greedy policy reaches 97.5 percent of the median TTFT gain from oracle ordering, indicating that most reusable prefix locality can be recovered by a simple scheduling layer between retrieval and inference.

19.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Feynman–Kac formula for the heat equation with a one-center point interaction in $d=3$

arXiv:2606.11677v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study Schrödinger operators with a one-center point interaction, formally defined by \begin{align*} -\Delta_\alpha=-\Delta+\alpha\,\delta_0(\cdot), \end{align*} for $\alpha\in\mathbb{R}$, and the associated heat equation \begin{align} \partial_t u=\tfrac{1}{2}\Delta_{\alpha} u,\quad u(0,x)=u_0(x)\in C_c^{\infty}(\mathbb{R}^3\setminus\{0\}).\label{eq:HEapp} \end{align} Here $\Delta$ denotes the Laplacian (self-adjoint on $L^2(\mathbb{R}^3)$) and $\delta_x$ the Dirac measure at $x$. The operator $-\Delta_\alpha$ can be realized either as a self-adjoint extension of $-\Delta|_{C_0^{\infty}(\mathbb{R}^3\setminus\{0\})}$ in $L^2(\mathbb{R}^3)$, or as the norm-resolvent limit of $-\Delta+\lambda_\varepsilon V(\cdot/\varepsilon)$ for suitable $\lambda_\varepsilon$ and $V:\mathbb{R}^3\to\mathbb{R}$. In this paper we construct, for each $t>0$ and $x\in\mathbb{R}^3\setminus\{0\}$, a probability law on path space and a normalizing function $G_t^\alpha(x)$ giving the following probabilistic representation of the solution to the associated equation: \begin{align*} u(t,x)=G_t^\alpha(x)\,\mathbb{E}\bigl[u_0\bigl(W^{t,x}(t)\bigr)\bigr], \end{align*} where $\{W^{t,x}(s):0\le s\le t\}$ is a continuous process depending on $(t,x,\alpha)$. The result provides a Feynman–Kac type formula for the heat equation with a one-point interaction in three dimensions.

20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-25

Information from coincidences

arXiv:2606.25042v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We prove a single algebraic mixed coincidence identity that unifies a broad swath of information-theoretic variational results. For any family of priors $\{\pi_i\}$ and real exponents $\{ \alpha_i \}$, the log of the mixed count $E_{x\sim\nu}\!\left[\prod_{i=1}^W \pi_i^{\alpha_i}(x)\right]$ is simultaneously a Boltzmann coincidence weight, an exponential-family normalizer, a maximum-entropy value, and a KL-barycenter optimum. The identity yields a unified derivation of classical cornerstones of information theory: concentration of empirical distributions (Sanov-type decompositions and Gibbs conditioning), hypothesis-testing error exponents (Chernoff information and its multi-way analogue), change-of-measure inequalities (Donsker-Varadhan and PAC-Bayes), and laws governing rare-pattern coincidences (Erdos-Renyi run-length, iterative guesswork, rate-distortion, and birthday thresholds). Each is recovered as a specialization of the same algebraic equality. It strictly generalizes the classical Renyi entropy and divergence variational formulas (one and two priors respectively) to a $W$-prior simplex, and holds for unnormalized and continuum-indexed priors. Among its consequences are an exact multi-prior PAC-Bayes penalty that subtracts an explicit "coincidence bonus" from the usual single-prior posterior penalty, and the asymptotic MAP error exponent for $W$-ary hypothesis testing as an edge-restricted simplex optimum. We demonstrate the calculus at scale on two large alphabets encoding richly modeled sequential languages: on language-model next-token predictives where we recover contrastive decoding, and on human genomic regulatory sequence where it separates correlated from diverse prior families along a sliding-window trace.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-24

Predicting 24-Month MCI-to-Alzheimer's Conversion Using Routine Clinical Assessments Without Neuroimaging or Genetic Testing

作者:

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: Early identification of individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at high risk of conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for timely intervention. We evaluated whether routinely obtainable clinical assessments can accurately predict 24-month MC to AD conversion. METHODS: Data from 2,430 participants with MCI in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative were analyzed. XGBoost, Random Forest, and Logistic Regression models were evaluated. SHAP-based feature selection and feature ablation analyses assessed the incremental value of APOE4 genotype. RESULTS: A six-feature model incorporating age, sex, education, RAVLT Immediate Recall, MMSE, and EcogSPTotal achieved an AUC of 0.922 (95% CI, 0.911~0.933). APOE4 provided negligible additional predictive value once cognitive measures were included. The XGBoost model outperformed Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes classification. DISCUSSION: Routine cognitive assessments accurately predict 24-month MCI-to-AD progression without biomarkers, neuroimaging, or genetic testing, offering a practical, low-cost tool for clinical risk stratification.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Safe and Generalizable Hierarchical Multi-Agent RL via Constraint Manifold Control

arXiv:2606.24010v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent systems are widely used in safety-critical applications that require coordinated behavior under strict safety constraints. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: learning-based methods achieve strong empirical performance but lack theoretical safety guarantees, while control-theoretic methods enforce safety but often lead to overly conservative and inefficient behaviors. We propose a hierarchical multi-agent reinforcement learning framework that enforces hard safety constraints under mild assumptions at low level via a constraint manifold, while enabling effective coordination through high-level policy learning. Our approach provides theoretical safety guarantees in the multi-agent setting and yields stationary learning dynamics, thereby enabling stable and efficient training. Empirically, our method achieves competitive performance while maintaining nearly perfect safety rates, and generalizes effectively to varying numbers of agents and obstacles.

23.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-17

General-purpose chatbots outperform clinical AI tools on physicians’ real-world questions

作者: 未知作者

Specialized clinical AI tools are entering medical practice with little independent testing. In a head-to-head evaluation across two public benchmarks and real questions from physicians, three general-purpose frontier large language models outperformed two leading clinical AI tools, which performed no better than Google search AI overview.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Edu-Theater: A Data-Efficient Agent Framework for Scalable Learner Behavior Simulation through Staging Roll-Call

arXiv:2606.15225v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale learner-task interaction data are crucial for intelligent educational systems but are costly to collect and constrained by privacy and learner engagement. Learner simulators play a critical role in simulating scalable learner behavior without the need for continuous involvement of real learners. However, existing methods are predominantly individual-centric, pairing a simulator with each learner to iteratively infer latent knowledge states from dense interaction histories, which is both data- and computation-intensive, and fragile in cold-start scenarios. We propose a cohort-aware roll-call simulation paradigm that first constructs cohort-level proficiency priors and refines individual learner states through a small number of targeted diagnostic queries. Based on this paradigm, we introduce Edu-Theater, an LLM-powered agent system that performs cohort-aware learner simulation via a teacher agent and retrospective roll-call probing over learner logs. Edu-Theater enables scalable future behavior simulation without the need for dense per-learner histories. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that Edu-Theater achieves higher simulation accuracy with significantly fewer LLM calls, producing synthetic data that enhances downstream applications such as adaptive testing.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

Toward Self-Evolution-Ready Workflow Harnesses: A Reversible Migration Path and Convertibility Taxonomy for Expert LLM Pipelines

arXiv:2606.24598v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While expert-validated "LLM + script" workflows deliver significant value, they remain static: they encode hard-won domain knowledge yet fail to adapt execution based on feedback. Existing agent research predominantly targets greenfield agents and synthetic benchmarks, leaving the migration of active legacy workflows unresolved. To bridge this gap, we present a reversible, Strangler-Fig migration path that refactors legacy workflows into composable, typed, and auditable stages. Central to this framework is a three-tier convertibility taxonomy (A/B/C), implemented as a routing stage within the system harness, which diagnoses a workflow's readiness and routes it accordingly.