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01.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-18

Daily briefing: The brain builds a sentence neuron by neuron

作者:

Researchers have tracked the electrical activity of individual brain cells during conversation in real time. Plus, the history of GPS and a cross-species transplant that could reveal clues about the origin of animals. Researchers have tracked the electrical activity of individual brain cells during conversation in real time. Plus, the history of GPS and a cross-species transplant that could reveal clues about the origin of animals.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Fisher Width: A Geometric Measure of Complexity on Statistical Manifolds

作者:

arXiv:2606.18306v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Gaussian width is a central geometric complexity measure in high-dimensional probability, compressed sensing, convex optimization, and learning theory. It quantifies the average extent of a set along random directions, thereby capturing the effective dimension of constraint sets, hypothesis classes, and descent cones. However, this notion is intrinsically Euclidean. Statistical models instead carry a natural Riemannian geometry induced by the Fisher information metric, where directions are scaled according to statistical distinguishability rather than ambient Euclidean length. We introduce Fisher width, a Fisher-geometric analogue of Gaussian width for statistical manifolds. At a parameter point $\theta$, Fisher width replaces the Euclidean identity by the local metric tensor $G(\theta)^{1/2}$, measuring the Gaussian width of the Fisher-rescaled set. This makes the resulting quantity sensitive to local statistical curvature and invariant under smooth reparameterizations. We develop the basic theory of Fisher width, showing that it retains key structural features of Gaussian width, including concentration, metric perturbation stability, and spectral comparison bounds with the Euclidean baseline, while also capturing anisotropic geometric effects invisible to Euclidean measures. As an application, we prove a generalization bound for Fisher-Lipschitz hypothesis classes and propose computable estimators, which we evaluate empirically on MNIST across three model classes. Fisher width is to statistical manifolds what Gaussian width is to Euclidean convex bodies. This work lays the foundation for studying complexity and learning on curved statistical manifolds.

03.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-18

Ten simple rules for turning your qualifying exam into an NIH-style fellowship proposal: A guide for graduate students

by Courtney Peña-Lima, Cameron S. Bader, Brendan K. Ball, Troy C. Dildine, Mekhala V. Dissanayake, Iris van ‘t Erve, Albina Ibrayeva, Amy Nippert, M.K. Quinn, Chelse Spinner, Samuel Thompson, Antonio Tomasso, Crystal M. Botham Qualifying exams, often referred to as “quals” or candidacy exams, are an important milestone in doctoral programs. Although the style of quals varies greatly by program and institution, it is usually a proposal that requires students to develop research ideas as well as their scientific writing skills. Many quals are modeled after funding mechanisms that graduate students can apply to and on a topic that the student will pursue in their dissertation. This paper offers graduate students a step-by-step guide on how to turn their quals into a fellowship-style research proposal, using National Institutes of Health (NIH) mechanisms as a benchmark, as this is the norm within US research institutions. This paper will be most useful for students who have completed or are in the process of completing proposal-based qualifying exams, usually in the second year of a doctoral program.

04.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Mixing times of one-sided $k$-transposition shuffles

arXiv:2112.05085v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study mixing times of the one-sided $k$-transposition shuffle. We prove that this shuffle mixes relatively slowly, even for $k$ big. Using the recent ``lifting eigenvectors'' technique of Dieker and Saliola and applying the $\ell^2$ bound, we prove different mixing behaviors and explore the occurrence of cutoff depending on $k$.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Lung-R1: A Knowledge Graph-Guided LLM for Pulmonary Diagnostic Reasoning

arXiv:2606.11675v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Diagnosing pulmonary diseases requires integrating heterogeneous evidence amid phenotypic variability and cross-disease overlap. Although large language models (LLMs) have shown progress on pulmonary knowledge question answering (QA) and information-processing tasks, reliable pulmonary diagnosis requires patient-specific, relation-aware reasoning over electronic medical record (EMR) evidence rather than isolated knowledge recall. We define this gap between pulmonary knowledge and case-level diagnostic reasoning as the Pulmonary Knowledge-to-Diagnosis Gap. To address it, we introduce LungKG, the first structured pulmonary knowledge graph for diagnostic knowledge organization and record-grounded reasoning. LungKG contains 59,038 nodes and 164,308 edges across 15 entity types and 112 relation types, serving as both a reusable pulmonary knowledge resource and the foundation for LungKG-guided model adaptation. Built on LungKG, we propose Lung-R1, a LungKG-guided pulmonary LLM trained through KG-constrained reasoning-chain construction and KG-guided reinforcement learning. In a 20-system evaluation, Lung-R1-14B achieves state-of-the-art performance across Choice, Pulmonary-QA, and EMR Diagnosis, reaching an EMR Diagnosis score of 4.3583 and surpassing the strongest non-Lung-R1 baseline by 0.1476 points. These results demonstrate the value of LungKG-guided training for EMR-based pulmonary diagnosis.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Clinical Study Protocol of the 'Biomarkers of Severity of COVID-19 Patients' (BIOMARCOVID) Project

Introduction The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has challenged health care systems worldwide, in certain areas exceeding hospital capacities and human resources. This has underscored the importance of having better tools to predict the outcome of potentially severe respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2. Predicting COVID-19 severity may allow physicians to better manage ICU beds and increase the chances of patient survival through appropriate management. During the toughest months of the pandemic, most physicians tried to identify patients that might develop severe forms based primarily on clinical features on admission (e.g., BMI, age). In this context, significant research has focused on identifying comorbidities, clinical manifestations, and routine blood biomarkers to predict disease severity. However, despite the demonstrated value of untargeted metabolomics in assessing severity, limited data exist on its use for identifying novel metabolite biomarkers that could improve both the sensitivity and specificity of outcome prediction. Our goal is to identify metabolite biomarkers that could enhance the predictive accuracy of standard medical biology data and clinical parameters. Methods and analysis This is a retrospective, observational, monocentric cohort study conducted at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Grenoble Alpes (CHUGA). The maximum number of eligible patients admitted for PCR-confirmed COVID-19 between March and December 2020 will be included. Severity outcome is defined using the WHO 10-category ordinal scale (mild: categories 4-5; severe: >5). Blood samples were collected within 48 hours of admission and analyzed for 62 routine blood tests and untargeted multiplatform LC-MS/MS metabolomics across four national platforms. Statistical analysis will include logistic regression with variable selection for the primary aim, and multi-block chemometric integration of clinical, biological, and metabolomics data as a secondary aim. Ethics and dissemination A study steering committee has been formed to ensure the accuracy of the collected data by thoroughly reviewing it prior to the data lock. All aspects of the study comply with ethical standards, including approval by the CHUGA institutional review board and adherence to CNIL Reference Methodology MR004 for the protection of participants' rights, privacy, and confidentiality. This study is registered on the French Health Data Hub (number F20210218154851). Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, presentations at national and international scientific and clinical conferences, and reports shared with key healthcare system stakeholders.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Real vs. Complex Spectral Bases for Neural Operators: The Role of Green's Function Alignment

arXiv:2606.24851v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) learn solution operators of partial differential equations by parameterizing global convolutions in the complex Fourier domain. For real-valued PDE solutions, the complex FFT carries representational redundancy through conjugate symmetry. We introduce the Hartley Neural Operator (HNO), the exact real-valued mirror of FNO: it replaces the FFT with the purely real Discrete Hartley Transform and learns a single real multiplier per retained spectral mode, with no complex arithmetic. Because the real Hartley spectrum is not halved by conjugate symmetry, HNO retains twice as many frequency corners as FNO but one real weight where FNO carries a complex pair, so the two operators are iso-parametric at equal width and differ only in spectral basis. Our central thesis is that the best basis is a property of the operator. Self-adjoint elliptic operators (Poisson, biharmonic) have real, symmetric Green's functions that the real Hartley multiplier diagonalizes exactly, and HNO is favored there. Time-dependent operators carry phase, from oscillation in the wave equation to transport in advection, Burgers, and Navier-Stokes, which a real diagonal multiplier cannot represent, so FNO is favored there, and increasingly so with the operator's phase content, leaving the phaseless heat equation as the borderline case. Training both operators identically and benchmarking across PDE classes, initial-condition families, and boundary conditions, we find an elliptic-versus-time-dependent split that is monotone in operator phase content and matches the Green's-function theory we develop. Rather than a universal winner, our findings give a predictive rule: match the spectral basis to the symmetry of the solution operator.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

How Task Structure Limits Multi-Agent Success: An Information-Theoretic Analysis

arXiv:2606.13733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-agent systems (MAS) were expected to overcome the limitation of single-agent systems (SAS) through collaboration. However, under typicality conditions on the task's constraint graph and bounded inter-agent communication, we prove that the success probability of a MAS is closely tied to the connectivity of task constraints, where each agent has limited information-processing capacity. Specifically, the success probability decays exponentially with an information bottleneck that emerges from partitioning the task's constraint graph among agents. We define this quantity as the minimum cut cost $C_{\min}$ of the potential constraint graph of each task. This information-theoretic bound applies to both open systems with external feedback and closed systems without. We validate our theory on both synthetic experiments and real-world empirical data from SWE-bench submissions. From our framework, effective MAS design should incorporate task-inherent constraints alongside engineering optimization, and when $\Cmin$ is high, practitioners should restructure tasks rather than simply scaling agents or communication.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

PiDR: Physics-Informed Inertial Dead Reckoning for Autonomous Platforms

arXiv:2601.03040v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A fundamental requirement for full autonomy is the ability to sustain accurate navigation in the absence of external data, such as GNSS signals or visual information. In these challenging environments, the platform must rely exclusively on inertial sensors, leading to pure inertial navigation. However, the inherent noise and other error terms of the inertial sensors in such real-world scenarios will cause the navigation solution to drift over time. Although conventional deep-learning models have emerged as a possible approach to inertial navigation, they are inherently black-box in nature. Furthermore, they struggle to learn effectively with limited supervised sensor data and often fail to preserve physical principles. To address these limitations, we propose PiDR, a physics-informed inertial dead-reckoning framework for autonomous platforms in situations of pure inertial navigation. PiDR offers transparency by explicitly integrating inertial navigation principles into the network training process through the physics-informed residual component. PiDR plays a crucial role in mitigating abrupt trajectory deviations even under limited or sparse supervision. We evaluated PiDR on real-world datasets collected by a mobile robot and an autonomous underwater vehicle. We obtained more than 29% positioning improvement in both datasets, demonstrating the ability of PiDR to generalize different platforms operating in various environments and dynamics. Thus, PiDR offers a robust, lightweight, yet effective architecture and can be deployed on resource-constrained platforms, enabling real-time pure inertial navigation in adverse scenarios.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-12

Scaling limits of the single-curve interface and outermost loops in the planar random field Ising model

arXiv:2606.13147v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that the interface separating $+1$ and $-1$ spins in the near-critical planar random field Ising model (RFIM) with Dobrushin boundary conditions has a scaling limit, whose law is conformally covariant and almost surely absolutely continuous with respect to SLE$_3$. The limiting curve can be seen as a massive version of SLE$_3$ in the sense of Makarov and Smirnov, but in a random environment. We then show that the outermost spin loops of the near-critical planar RFIM with $+1$ boundary conditions have subsequential limits and that any of these limits is almost surely singular with respect to CLE$_3$. This dichotomy between absolute continuity of the single interface and singularity of the outermost loops reflects the fact that a single interface does not explore enough of the magnetization field of the near-critical RFIM to detect the singularity of this field with respect to the critical Ising magnetization field, whereas the outermost spin loops do.

12.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

ZipSplat: Fewer Gaussians, Better Splats

Feed-forward 3D Gaussian Splatting methods reconstruct a scene from posed or pose-free images in a single forward pass, yet current approaches predict one Gaussian per input pixel, tying the representation budget to camera resolution rather than scene complexity. A flat wall and a richly textured object thus produce equally many Gaussians despite very different geometric needs. We propose ZipSplat, a token-based feed-forward model that decouples Gaussian placement from the pixel grid. A multi-view backbone extracts dense visual tokens, and k-means clustering compresses them into a compact set of scene tokens. Cross- and self-attention refine these tokens, and a lightweight MLP decodes each into a group of Gaussians with unconstrained 3D positions. Because clustering is applied at inference, a single trained model spans the quality-efficiency curve without retraining. ZipSplat operates without ground-truth poses or intrinsics, yet sets a new state of the art on DL3DV and RealEstate10K with ${\sim}6{\times}$ fewer Gaussians than pixel-aligned methods, surpassing the best pose-free baseline by 2.1dB and 1.2dB PSNR, respectively. It further generalizes zero-shot to Mip-NeRF360 and ScanNet++, outperforming all comparable baselines. Our project page is at https://veichta.com/zipsplat.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-24

SemChunk-C: Semantic Segmentation for C Code

arXiv:2606.23697v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Semantic segmentation of code written in a C-family language remains a challenging problem, due to the language's complex syntax, macro expansion, and irregular structural patterns. Existing chunking methods, such as fixed-sized windows, heuristic splitting, and syntax-based tools, often fail to capture meaningful functional units, limiting the efficacy of retrieval and other downstream LLM driven tasks. In this paper, we address the problem of chunking in C-related languages. First, we define a set of code chunk categories. Second, we train an LLM-based classifier to a) identify chunk boundaries, and b) assign each chunk a descriptive functional attribute (a category), which can be useful for downstream tasks. By leveraging the LLM's ability to capture semantic context within the code, we assume flexible chunk boundaries, allowing to adapt to the specific structure and context of each instance. Third, we introduce SemChunk-C, a family of lightweight language models for semantic chunking of C-related files (.c, .cpp, .h, .cs, etc.). These models are based on the first four Ettin encoders [1] with 17M, 32M, 68M, and 150M parameters. Despite their relatively small size, they are capable of identifying cohesive code units, such as data structures, interface blocks, and other components. Furthermore, we demonstrate the robustness of our approach on real-world code, including challenging constructs such as nested definitions and macros. We test our approach on various datasets, and show that it achieves high boundary accuracy and semantic coherence, matching or outperforming chunkers that are based on much larger code-oriented LLMs. We also validate the improved performance of the downstream tasks on a few curated benchmarks.

15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-16

Learning ground state observables from quantum computing experiments

arXiv:2606.15983v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent theoretical progress has established conditions under which machine learning models can efficiently predict ground-state properties of gapped local Hamiltonians when trained on quantum-generated data. Previous experimental demonstrations in this paradigm, however, have largely been limited to small systems or highly structured states, due to the difficulty of preparing many-body ground states on quantum processors. In this work, we demonstrate learning from experimental quantum data generated from approximate ground states of the two-dimensional Heisenberg XXZ model with system sizes up to 115 qubits. We construct a dataset of single-site expectation values, two-point correlations, and 12-body loop correlations across the antiferromagnetic phase. We then train neural networks on this data and show that they can accurately predict spatially resolved observables for previously unseen Hamiltonian parameters, both within the training distribution and in an out-of-distribution regime approaching the phase boundary. Our results demonstrate the practical realization of learning from quantum data for an interacting two-dimensional many-body system at scale, motivating a path toward regimes where quantum processors could provide training data beyond the reach of classical approximation methods.

16.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

Bilevel Data Curation for LLM Fine-tuning: Offline Selection and Online Self-Refining Generation

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) datasets are critical to the downstream performance of large language models, yet they often contain low-quality or harmful question-response pairs. To improve SFT data quality, we develop a unified bilevel framework that combines offline data selection with the online self-refining generation. In the offline setting, bilevel data selection (BDS) selects question-response pairs from the offline SFT dataset to maximize the validation performance. We theoretically show that the optimal model given by BDS outperforms direct data mixing approach in useful data coverage. Moreover, we provide a global convergence analysis for gradient-based BDS approach for one-layer Transformer, showing that the epsilon-global optimum of offline BDS is achievable in finite time. Although efficient, offline BDS discards potentially harmful questions together with responses, thereby reducing question diversity. We address this limitation by refining the responses to selected questions using online self-refining generation framework. However, BDS is inefficient to update the response weights when responses are regenerated online. To address this issue, we introduce bilevel multi-objective optimization (BMO) for response-level weighting. We show that BMO recovers the same validation-aligned solution as BDS, but admits a closed-form importance-ratio weight that adapts to regenerated responses. Experiments on LLM quality enhancement and safety-aware fine-tuning demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves both data quality and downstream fine-tuning performance.

17.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

SEDULity: A Proof-of-Learning Framework for Distributed and Secure Blockchains with Efficient Useful Work

arXiv:2512.13666v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The security and decentralization of Proof-of-Work (PoW) have been well-tested in existing blockchain systems. However, its tremendous energy waste has raised concerns about sustainability. Proof-of-Useful-Work (PoUW) aims to redirect the meaningless computation to meaningful tasks such as solving machine learning (ML) problems, giving rise to the branch of Proof-of-Learning (PoL). While previous studies have proposed various PoLs, they all, to some degree, suffer from security, decentralization, or efficiency issues. In this paper, we propose a PoL framework that trains ML models efficiently while maintaining blockchain security in a fully distributed manner. We name the framework SEDULity, which stands for a Secure, Efficient, Distributed, and Useful Learning-based blockchain system. Specifically, we encode the template block into the training process and design a useful function that is difficult to solve but relatively easy to verify, as a substitute for the PoW puzzle. We show that our framework is distributed, secure, and efficiently trains ML models. We further demonstrate that the proposed PoL framework can be extended to other types of useful work and design an incentive mechanism to incentivize task verification. We show theoretically that a rational miner is incentivized to train fully honestly with well-designed system parameters. Finally, we present simulation results to demonstrate the performance of our framework and validate our analysis.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

An iterative Ising decoder for quantum error correction codes

arXiv:2606.12301v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Ising framework maps the decoding problem in quantum error correction onto ground-state optimization of a classical Hamiltonian, in which $X$-$Z$ error correlations enter as cross terms. Under phenomenological depolarizing noise, the exact joint formulation contains up to 8-body interactions for the toric code and 10-body for the $6.6.6$ color code. These high-order terms degrade solver convergence, inflate runtime, and raise the auxiliary spin overhead when embedding into native 2-body Ising hardware. In this work, we propose the iterative low-order decoding (ILOD) algorithm, which alternates between $X$- and $Z$-type sub-Hamiltonians, approximating cross-type correlations through Bayesian priors that reweight each type's couplings using the other type's inferred error configuration. This halves the maximum body count of interaction terms in the Hamiltonian, accelerating the solver, restoring convergence at larger code distances, and reducing the total spin count for 2-body embedding by a factor of $2.5$. For the toric code, ILOD attains a threshold of $4.73%$ versus $4.83%$ for the joint formulation, with the empirical runtime ratio scaling as $(0.81)^d$. For the $6.6.6$ color code, their thresholds agree within statistical uncertainty for small code distances, and ILOD remains convergent for larger distances where the joint formulation fails to converge despite a larger annealing budget.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

A Multi-Modal Sensor Fusion Instrument for Measuring Regional Human Mobility: The Distributed Human Data Engine (DHDE)

arXiv:2603.21639v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurately estimating human mobility in peripheral regional economies presents a fundamental measurement challenge: physical ground-truth sensors are sparse, behavioral intent signals are heterogeneous, and environmental friction introduces systematic bias into demand inference. We introduce the Distributed Human Data Engine (DHDE), a multi-modal sensor fusion architecture that addresses this challenge by integrating physical instrumentation (Edge-AI cameras), digital intent signals (route search impression metrics), behavioral records (90,350 spending records, 97,719 standardized survey responses), and meteorological data across four geographically distributed nodes in Fukui, Japan. The primary measurement-science contribution is the design, deployment, and cross-node validation of the DHDE as a sparse-sensor compensation instrument: a heterogeneous sensor fusion architecture that anchors non-stationary digital intent signals to concurrent physical ground-truth counts, correcting for systematic bias introduced by meteorological planning friction. The instrument is implemented as an ensemble inference pipeline (Random Forest and Ordinary Least Squares with Newey-West robust inference), calibrated across 397 daily observations and validated by chronological holdout replication across four geographically distinct node types. The primary OLS specification achieved an in-sample explanatory power of R2 = 0.810 and a chronological out-of-sample predictive performance of R2 = 0.683. Results identify an Under-Vibrancy Paradox where macro-regional visitor satisfaction correlates positively with crowd density (Spearman rank correlation rs = +0.150, p = 0.002). We estimate an annual proxy gap of 865,917 intent-implied visits, corresponding to JPY 11.96 billion (USD 72.6 million) in foregone revenue.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-24

MorfFlex: Handling Rich Morphology

We present MorfFlex, a morphological dictionary architecture suitable for languages with extensive regularity in both inflection and derivation. As the primary example of MorfFlex in use we introduce MorfFlex CZ, a morphological dictionary of Czech. It is distributed as a simple, unstructured list of triplets, however, its manually maintained, unpublished source files and conversion scripts encode a sophisticated system of inflectional and derivational patterns. These patterns dramatically reduce the otherwise enormous size of the dictionary, which currently contains over 100 million wordforms and more than 1 million lemmas. The MorfFlex CZ dictionary serves as an essential resource for ensuring the consistency of manual morphological annotation in the Prague Dependency Treebanks and underpins state-of-the-art automatic tools such as MorphoDiTa. In this paper, we focus on: (i) presenting an effective method for managing the rich morphological system within the dictionary, and (ii) demonstrating the utility of such a language resource for maintaining annotation consistency in corpora and supporting the development of advanced NLP applications.

21.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-25

Real-Time Voice AI Hears but Does Not Listen

Speech conveys information through both words and vocal delivery. We evaluate four leading production realtime voice systems-OpenAI's GPT Realtime 2, Google's Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, and Alibaba's Qwen3.5 Omni Plus and Omni Flash-on tasks where the words and the delivery patterns both convey meaningful information. Across three consequential scenarios, all four systems act on the words rather than the voice. They end calls with crying callers who insist nothing is wrong, approve wire transfers authorized in frightened voices, and enroll callers whose agreement is clearly sarcastic. Surprisingly, this is often not a failure of perception. When asked directly, three of the four systems reliably identify the distress, fear, or sarcasm they later ignore when making decisions. We observe a similar pattern when these realtime voice systems estimate accent and age, as their responses frequently follow the biases of the words rather than the acoustic properties of the speaker. We term this disconnect between perception and action the emotional intelligence gap of voice AI. Prompting systems to explicitly attend to vocal delivery improves performance only partially and inconsistently. Our findings show that current realtime voice AI systems often behave as if speech had been reduced to a transcript, suggesting that they should be used with caution in settings where the tone and emotion of delivery convey important information.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Global Offshore Wind Infrastructure: Deployment and Operational Dynamics from Dense Sentinel-1 Time Series

The offshore wind energy sector is expanding rapidly, increasing the need for independent, high-temporal-resolution monitoring of infrastructure deployment and operation at global scale. While Earth Observation based offshore wind infrastructure mapping has matured for spatial localization, existing open datasets lack temporally dense and semantically fine-grained information on construction and operational dynamics. We introduce a global Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series data corpus that resolves deployment and operational phases of offshore wind infrastructure from 2016Q1 to 2025Q1. Building on an updated object detection workflow, we compile 15,606 time series at detected infrastructure locations, with overall 14,840,637 events as analysis-ready 1D SAR backscatter profiles, one profile per Sentinel-1 acquisition and location. To enable direct use and benchmarking, we release (i) the analysis ready 1D SAR profiles, (ii) event-level baseline semantic labels generated by a rule-based classifier, and (iii) an expert-annotated benchmark dataset of 553 time series with 328,657 event labels. The baseline classifier achieves a macro F1 score of 0.84 in event-wise evaluation and an area under the collapsed edit similarity-quality threshold curve (AUC) of 0.785, indicating temporal coherence. We demonstrate that the resulting corpus supports global-scale analyses of deployment dynamics, the identification of differences in regional deployment patterns, vessel interactions, and operational events, and provides a reference for developing and comparing time series classification methods for offshore wind infrastructure monitoring.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

In-Context Learning Is Provably Bayesian Inference: A Generalization Theory for Meta-Learning

arXiv:2510.10981v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper develops a finite-sample statistical theory for in-context learning (ICL), analyzed within a meta-learning framework that accommodates mixtures of diverse task types. We introduce a principled risk decomposition that separates the total ICL risk into two orthogonal components: Bayes Gap and Posterior Variance. The Bayes Gap quantifies how well the trained model approximates the Bayes-optimal in-context predictor. For a uniform-attention Transformer, we derive a non-asymptotic upper bound on this gap, which explicitly clarifies the dependence on the number of pretraining prompts and their context length. The Posterior Variance is a model-independent risk representing the intrinsic task uncertainty. Our key finding is that this term is determined solely by the difficulty of the true underlying task, while the uncertainty arising from the task mixture vanishes exponentially fast with only a few in-context examples. Together, these results provide a unified view of ICL: the Transformer selects the optimal meta-algorithm during pretraining and rapidly converges to the optimal algorithm for the true task at test time.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Uncertainty Estimation and Generalization Bounds for Modern Deep Learning

arXiv:2606.13818v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This thesis investigates how Bayesian principles can deepen our understanding of modern deep learning systems. While neural networks achieve remarkable predictive performance, their ability to generalize and to quantify uncertainty remains only partly understood. This thesis approaches this challenge from both methodological and theoretical angles: unifying Bayesian inference, function-space modeling, and large-deviation theory under a common probabilistic perspective. On the methodological side, the thesis introduces the Deep Variational Implicit Process (DVIP), a scalable Bayesian framework that extends implicit processes to deep architectures. Complementing this, two post-hoc methods – the Variational Linearized Laplace Approximation (VaLLA) and the Fixed-Mean Gaussian Process (FMGP) – are proposed to equip pretrained deterministic networks with calibrated uncertainty estimates. The theoretical contributions focus on one of the central open questions in modern machine learning: why do large, over-parameterized neural networks generalize so well? To address this, the thesis develops a unified probabilistic framework that connects three key mechanisms – diversity, smoothness, and stochasticity – within the language of PAC-Bayesian and large-deviation theory.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Belief-Space Control for Personalized Cancer Treatment via Active Inference

arXiv:2606.10376v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cancer treatment is at the core a sequential decision-making problem with partial observability, latent patient heterogeneity, and explicit constraints on the budget for medical measurements. Unlike standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches that control state trajectories, cancer treatments permanently modify patients' transition dynamics, changing how states evolve over time. We model cancer treatment as a belief-space planning problem using active inference, deriving an expected free-energy objective that unifies goal-directed control and information acquisition under measurement budgets without. We implement this framework using real clinical cancer data from the AACR Project GENIE Biopharma Collaborative dataset. Results on clinical data demonstrate a simultaneous patient categorization and high treatment efficacy, under real measurement and treatment constraints.