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01.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Critical Percolation as a Synthetic Data Model for Interpretability

arXiv:2606.20347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural networks learn features that reflect the hierarchical, multi-scale structure of natural data. Synthetic datasets used to evaluate interpretability methods typically lack this structure, limiting their value as realistic toy models. To close this gap, we introduce a family of synthetic datasets consisting of hierarchical functions defined on critical mean-field percolation clusters embedded in a high-dimensional data space. The percolation data consists of sparse, low-dimensional fractal clusters with a power-law size distribution. Latent variables modeling a taxonomic hierarchy generate each data point's target value. The data model is analytically tractable with known critical exponents that fix its properties without requiring hyperparameter tuning. We leverage a mapping between percolation clusters, random trees, and additive coalescence to propose an almost linear-time algorithm to jointly sample a random tree and its hierarchical latent decomposition, enabling data generation at arbitrary scale. Using probing experiments, we find that the model's ground-truth latent variables can be linearly decoded from neural network activations. Together, sparsity, self-similarity, power-law statistics, and analytical tractability make critical percolation a principled testbed for interpretability research.

02.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Atlas: Orchestrating Heterogeneous Models and Tools for Multi-Domain Complex Reasoning

The integration of large language models (LLMs) with external tools has significantly expanded the capabilities of AI agents. However, as the diversity of both LLMs and tools increases, selecting the optimal model-tool combination becomes a high-dimensional optimization challenge. Existing approaches often rely on a single model or fixed tool-calling logic, failing to exploit the performance variations across heterogeneous model-tool pairs. In this paper, we present ATLAS (Adaptive Tool-LLM Alignment and Synergistic Invocation), a dual-path framework for dynamic tool usage in cross-domain complex reasoning. ATLAS operates via a dual-path approach: (1) training-free cluster-based routing that exploits empirical priors for domain-specific alignment, and (2) RL-based multi-step routing that explores autonomous trajectories for out-of-distribution generalization. Extensive experiments across 15 benchmarks demonstrate that our method outperforms closed-source models like GPT-4o, surpassing existing routing methods on both in-distribution (+10.1%) and out-of-distribution (+13.1%) tasks. Furthermore, our framework shows significant gains in visual reasoning by orchestrating specialized multi-modal tools.

03.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-17

Deciphering cell type-specific causal genetic effects on brain imaging-derived phenotypes and disorders with single-cell Mendelian randomization

作者:

by Anyi Yang, Xingzhong Zhao, Xing-Ming Zhao, Yucheng T. Yang Reconstructing causality routes from genetic effects to complex phenotypes in particular cell types is crucial for understanding biological mechanisms underlying the brain-associated phenotypes including imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs), and brain disorders and behaviors (DBs). Here, we develop a single-cell Mendelian randomization framework to infer cell type-specific causal relationships between gene expression and diverse brain-associated complex phenotypes by integrating single-cell expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTLs) and genome-wide association study findings. We identifiy a set of 254 and 217 cis-eQTL target genes (eGenes) that may have causal effects on 112 IDPs and 26 DBs in eight cell types, respectively. These causal eGenes exhibit strong cell type specificity and varied pleiotropy among different types of brain-associated phenotypes. Further integrative analysis reveals putative causality routes among cell type-specific causal eGenes and brain-associated complex phenotypes. Finally, we characterize the spatiotemporal expression patterns of these causal eGenes, and highlight the coordinated associations of the brain-associated phenotypes based on the expression of their causal eGenes. Overall, our study presents a large-scale analysis of the genetic effects of brain structures, disorders and behaviors, providing a catalog of cell type-specific causal eGenes.

04.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Macrophage-targeted glucocorticoid prodrug resolves acute inflammation while preserving HPA axis function: mechanistic, preclinical, and Phase II/III clinical evidence

Glucocorticoids (GCs) remain the fastest-acting anti-inflammatory agents but are constrained by systemic exposure that suppresses the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis, silences adaptive immunity, and drives chronic toxicities. Chronic inflammatory diseases are sustained by long-lived CD206+ macrophages containing immune-resistant pathogenic material not cleared physiologically. We developed 101-PGC-005 ('005), a macrophage-targeted type 1a dexamethasone prodrug engineered for low-affinity, recycling-compatible uptake via CD206, with intracellular release triggered by acidic endosomes. We evaluated '005 in mechanistic assays, pathogen-diverse preclinical models, three human pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, and an adaptive-design randomized Phase II/III trial in 309 hospitalized patients with moderate COVID-19. In two completed Phase I human studies, a first-in-human dose-escalation and repeated-dose study and a dedicated single/multiple-dose PK and safety study; '005 circulated as intact prodrug with rapid systemic clearance (Tmax ~0.5 h; terminal half-life ~1.9 h), with no measurable free dexamethasone after single dosing and only low, clinically non-significant free dexamethasone after repeated dosing, and intact prodrug recovered unchanged in urine. Morning cortisol and ACTH were preserved after 30 mg once daily for three consecutive days (1.5 times the intended therapeutic dose). A cerebrospinal fluid PK study is evaluating central-compartment penetration. In the Phase II/III trial, powered for non-inferiority, conducted across six sites in India under GCP with Ministry of Health approval and independent DSMB oversight; '005 (20 mg IV daily for 3 days) was superior to dexamethasone (6 mg IV daily for 3 -10 days) on the primary endpoint of time to > a 2-point improvement on the WHO ordinal scale (HR 2.31; 95% CI 1.83-2.93; p < 0.0001; median 3 vs. 4 days). '005 was also superior on viral clearance (HR 1.47; 95% CI 1.17-1.84; p = 0.0001), hospital discharge rate, SpO2; recovery, and fever resolution. Zero patients in the '005 arm received investigator-initiated corticosteroid supplementation despite protocol allowance. All 309 randomized patients completed the study (ITT = per-protocol). Safety profiles were equivalent (TEAEs 54.8% vs 54.5%; p = 0.958), with no Grade 3+ events, SAEs, deaths, or discontinuations in either arm. Mechanistically, '005 delivered dual benefit: acute debulking of inflammatory macrophages and selective depletion of chronically activated pathology-sustaining macrophages, while preserving CXCL10 antiviral signaling and physiologic HPA control. Critically, HPA preservation is not merely a safety feature, it is a core efficacy mechanism: by clearing the pathogenic macrophage burden that was overriding HPA regulation, '005 restores the conditions for endogenous cortisol to resume its pulsatile, demand-responsive anti-inflammatory role across all GR-expressing cells, lymphocytes, endothelial cells, neurons, and newly differentiated macrophages, that '005 itself cannot reach. These findings support regulatory-grade evidence for macrophage-targeted corticosteroid therapy and provide the foundation for further development across acute inflammatory indications (sepsis, viral pneumonia, cytokine-release syndromes) and chronic macrophage-driven diseases (atherosclerosis, metabolic steatohepatitis, neurodegeneration, tumor-associated macrophages).

05.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

Multi-strain Probiotics Alter Gut Microbiota and Estrobolome Pathways in Primary Dysmenorrhea

Background: Exact cause of primary dysmenorrhoea is unknown but recent evidence uncovers a potential link between gut dysbiosis and benign gynaecological disorder via disruption of estrobolome. Methods: A randomized controlled trial to investigate the effects of multi-strain oral probiotics on primary dysmenorrhoea has been conducted. This is a secondary analysis comparing the stool microbiome in women with primary dysmenorrhoea and those without (control), and the effects of treatment with probiotics versus placebo. Results: Although microbial richness and evenness were comparable between groups (alpha diversity, p > 0.05), gut microbial community composition differed significantly (Bray Curtis PERMANOVA, p = 0.015), characterised by reduced Bifidobacterium adolescentis and Blautia and enrichment of Faecalibacterium in dysmenorrhoea, alongside condition-specific core taxa. Post-intervention analysis revealed significant shifts in microbial community structure between pre- and post-treatment groups (PERMANOVA, F = 2.11, p = 0.005), with probiotic supplementation inducing more consistent and directed microbiome changes than placebo, without altering alpha diversity (p > 0.05). Functional prediction showed no significant difference in overall beta glucuronidase pathway abundance (p > 0.05); however, dysmenorrhoea was associated with higher abundance of beta glucuronidase producing taxa (MaAsLin2, q < 0.05) that were differentially modulated by probiotic treatment. Conclusion: This discovery provides evidence on the microbial disruption in primary dysmenorrhoea as well as the benefit of probiotics to modulate the intestinal microbiota to improve the condition.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

Visual Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Silhouette-Guided Animal Art

Generative AI has advanced the ability to render photorealistic or artistic images, yet it remains limited in a key aspect of human creativity: interpreting ambiguous shapes. This phenomenon, rooted in pareidolia, allows humans to perceive meaningful forms in random patterns such as clouds, stones, or leaves. To computationally replicate this imaginative process, we introduce Visual Retrieval-Augmented Generation (Visual-RAG), a framework that generates animal art directly from natural silhouettes. Our method retrieves structurally similar animal shapes from a curated corpus of 28,586 high-quality silhouettes and uses them as reference exemplars to guide diffusion-based generation with ControlNet and IP-Adapter. Ablation studies confirm that shape Context with RANSAC provides the most accurate alignment, while removing shape standardization reduces the inlier ratio to just 13.4\%, underscoring the importance of structural fidelity in Visual-RAG. A user study with 12 participants evaluated the outputs in terms of aesthetics, silhouette fidelity, and overall impression. Results reveal that while Visual-RAG provides plausible interpretations, challenges remain in achieving high perceptual impact. This work lays the foundation for computational pareidolia, showing how machines can contribute to the early stages of imaginative discovery.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Decomposing one-class support vector machine into an ensemble of one-data support vector machines

arXiv:2606.16002v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: One-class classification (OCC) is a classification problem in which the training data contains only one class. The one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) is one of the most competitive OCC algorithms. However, OCSVM has scalability issues with large-scale datasets. This paper proposes the acceleration strategy of OCSVM. The idea is to decompose the dataset into samples and train OCSVM models for single data points. Subsequently, ensemble learning is applied to combine all models to compute the OCSVM model for the dataset. In addition, further acceleration is achieved through a data-reduction strategy with an OCSVM model trained on the average of the training samples. The experiment compared the proposal and traditional OCSVM using the Python package. The proposed strategy is faster than traditional OCSVM, while achieving similar classification results. Moreover, the proposed strategy can create one-to-one correspondence between samples and models. Source code is uploaded at https://github.com/ToshiHayashi/ODSVM

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Equivariant Representation Learning via Class-Pose Decomposition

arXiv:2207.03116v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a general method for learning representations that are equivariant to symmetries of data. Our central idea is to decompose the latent space into an invariant factor and the symmetry group itself. The components semantically correspond to intrinsic data classes and poses respectively. The learner is trained on a loss encouraging equivariance based on supervision from relative symmetry information. The approach is motivated by theoretical results from group theory and guarantees representations that are lossless, interpretable and disentangled. We provide an empirical investigation via experiments involving datasets with a variety of symmetries. Results show that our representations capture the geometry of data and outperform other equivariant representation learning frameworks.

09.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

When Do Data-Driven Systems Exhibit the Capability to Infer?

arXiv:2606.11769v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The European AI Act is the first comprehensive regulation of artificial intelligence (AI), setting out extensive obligations, particularly for so-called high-risk and general-purpose AI systems. A key distinguishing feature of AI systems under the AI Act is the capability to infer. Since the AI Act does not clearly define what inference is, there is a gray area for certain data-driven systems. A specific example is credit scoring systems, which are listed by Annex III of the AI Act. At the same time, however, these are often implemented using statistical models for which it is unclear whether they have the capability to infer and thus fall under the AI definition of the AI Act at all. Motivated by statistical learning theory, this work develops a framework for grading different levels of the capability to infer. Based on the AI Act and the Commission Guidelines on the definition of an artificial intelligence system, we analyze which levels constitute sufficient capability to infer within the meaning of the AI Act and where further regulatory clarity is needed. We illustrate the framework by creating two realistic credit scoring workflows and show whether and where inference occurs in them. Our analysis illustrates that not only individual models but the entire data processing workflow must be considered. It also shows that the involvement of human experts during development can have significant influence on the capability to infer. Code can be found at https://github.com/fraunhofer-iais/inference-framework-creditscorecards.

10.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

RoSE: Round-robin Synthetic Data Evaluation for Selecting LLM Generators without Human Test Sets

LLMs are powerful generators of synthetic data, which are used for training smaller, specific models. This is especially valuable for low-resource languages, where human-labelled data is scarce but LLMs can still produce high-quality text. However, LLMs differ in how useful their outputs are for training. Selecting the best LLM as a generator is challenging because extrinsic evaluation requires costly human annotations (which are often unavailable for low-resource languages), while intrinsic metrics correlate poorly with downstream performance. We introduce Round robin Synthetic data Evaluation (RoSE), a proxy metric for selecting the best LLM generator without human test sets. RoSE trains a small model on the outputs of a candidate generator (LLM) and then evaluates it on generated synthetic examples from all other candidate LLMs. The final RoSE score is the mean performance of this small model. Across six LLMs, eleven languages, and three tasks (sentiment, topic, intent), RoSE identifies the optimal generator more often than any other intrinsic heuristics. RoSE outperforms intrinsic heuristics and comes within 0.76 percentage points of the optimal generator baseline. This result is measured in terms of downstream performance, obtained by training a small model on the chosen generator's outputs (optimal vs. proxy metric selected) and evaluating it on human-labelled test data. Additionally, RoSE is the only metric to achieve a positive correlation with performance on human test data.

11.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-22

GrassSV – hybrid method to detect structural variants in high throughput DNA-seq data

by Dominik Witczak, Krzysztof Sychla, Julia Wysocka, Artur Laskowski, Wojciech Frohmberg, Marta Glowacka, Alicja Dzik, Piotr Lukasiak, Jacek Blazewicz, Aleksandra Swiercz Genetic diversity is crucial for populations to adapt and survive in dynamic environments. This diversity arises from genetic mutations, which manifest in the genome as structural variants (SVs). Several types of SVs exist, but not all are equally easy to detect. Current SV detection tools tend to specialize in certain SV types or require the use of multiple tools to obtain a comprehensive variant profile, which increases computational cost and complexity. While some methods excel at identifying breakpoints, they often struggle with accurately classifying variant types, and their precision depends strongly on data quality and sequencing technology. At present, the majority of available genomic data originates from high-quality short reads, which remain the most affordable sequencing technology. In this manuscript, we introduce GrassSV, a novel and computationally efficient method that employs a hybrid pattern-matching approach to detect all major classes of structural variants using short-read sequencing data. GrassSV integrates depth-of-coverage analysis with contig-based pattern recognition to ensure both sensitivity and precision while minimizing false positives and runtime. Its robustness was demonstrated on the human Genome in a Bottle dataset, as well as on synthetic data derived from the yeast genome, where it achieved high accuracy across all SV types at a lower computational cost compared to existing methods. This makes GrassSV a practical alternative to multi-tool pipelines typically required for comprehensive SV detection. GrassSV is available at https://github.com/Domomod/GrassSV under GPL-3.0 license and the benchmark at: https://github.com/Domomod/GrassBenchmark.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

MassSpecGym in the Wild: Uncovering and Correcting Evaluation Pitfalls in AI-Driven Molecule Discovery

arXiv:2606.19624v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable benchmarking is critical for developing machine learning models for tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) based molecule discovery. Subtle issues in experimental design and model evaluation procedures can degrade the trustworthiness of such benchmarks and lead to erroneous conclusions. We conduct a thorough review of model evaluation issues in the recent MS/MS machine learning literature, using the standard MassSpecGym benchmark suite as a case study to illustrate the impact of these issues. We find evaluation issues in at least 17 of 26 papers reporting MassSpecGym benchmark results in the first year of its adoption. We isolate three classes of failures: (i) data leakage, (ii) shortcut learning, and (iii) implementation bugs and metric divergence. Through extensive experimentation and code replication, we quantify the impact of these issues and show how they corrupt the evaluation standards MassSpecGym was designed to enforce. We distill our findings into recommendations generalizable to MS/MS challenges, benchmarks, and custom evaluation setups. We also release MassSpecGym v1.5, an implementation of our recommendations in the MassSpecGym benchmarking suite which addresses the failure modes identified in this audit. MassSpecGym v1.5 is publicly available at https://github.com/pluskal-lab/MassSpecGym.

13.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Stable size-biasing and the positive scale-mixture order of generalized Gaussian laws

arXiv:2606.18458v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Let $X_r\sim N_r(0,1)$ be the centered unit-scale generalized Gaussian random variable with density proportional to $\exp(-|x|^r/2)$. We prove that, for $p,q>0$, there exists a strictly positive random variable $V$, independent of $X_q$, such that $X_p\stackrel{d}{=}VX_q$ if and only if $p\le q$. Moreover, the law of $V$ is unique. For $pq$, the required Mellin quotient, viewed as the candidate characteristic function of $\log V$, is unbounded by Stirling's formula, and hence cannot be a characteristic function. The factor laws form a multiplicative cocycle, $V_{p,r}\stackrel{d}{=}V_{p,q}V_{q,r}$, for $p\le q\le r$, where the factors on the right-hand side are independent copies. Thus the Mellin quotient isolated by Dytso, Bustin, Poor and Shamai is realized constructively throughout the $p

14.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-11

Machine Learning-Guided Discovery of Bacterial-Selective Membrane-Active Compounds Reveals Mechanistic Bias in Antibiotic Training Datasets

The rise of antibiotic resistance necessitates the discovery of antibacterial compounds with novel mechanisms of action (MoAs). Recent machine learning approaches have shown promise in antibacterial compound discovery, but often identify derivatives of known antibiotic classes rather than mechanistically novel compounds. Previous approaches applied Tanimoto similarity filters at the end of screening pipelines, but this method has substantial drawbacks: Tanimoto similarity can be misleading in chemical space, and post-hoc filtering does not influence what activity models learn to prioritize. Here, we present a machine learning pipeline that addresses chemical novelty upfront by employing an XGBoost-based MoA classifier to explicitly prioritize compounds predicted to have mechanisms distinct from known antibiotic classes, combined with graph neural networks for antibacterial activity and toxicity prediction. Applied to the Zinc20 database, our approach successfully identified non-toxic antibacterial compounds structurally distinct from known antibiotics. Notably, the majority of these hits exhibited membrane-targeting activity with selectivity for bacterial cells over mammalian cells, suggesting potential for next-generation membrane-active antibiotics. However, we did not identify compounds with novel protein targets. Systematic analysis revealed that this limitation stems from mechanistic bias in training data rather than model architecture. Specifically, our activity model learned to preferentially score compounds similar to specific groups in the training data, thus overrepresenting certain MoA classes including membrane-active compounds. Even substantial model architecture and training data enhancements did not overcome this constraint. Our findings demonstrate that the primary bottleneck for discovering mechanistically novel antibiotics is the scarcity of diverse, mechanistically-annotated training data. This work provides both a methodological framework for mechanism-aware screening and critical insights into data requirements for genuinely novel antibiotic discovery.

15.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Multi-Dimensional Cohomological Phenomena in the Lower Multiparametric Model

作者:

arXiv:2402.02573v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In the past two decades, extensive research has been conducted on the (co)homology of various models of random simplicial complexes. So far, it has always been examined merely as a list of groups. This paper expands upon this by describing both the ring structure and the Steenrod-algebra structure of the cohomology of the lower multiparametric model. We prove that the ring structure is always a.a.s trivial, while, for certain parameters, the Steenrod-algebra a.a.s acts non-trivially. This reveals that complex multi-dimensional topological structures appear as subcomplexes of this model.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Hybrid NARX-LLM for Greenland Iceberg Discharge: Prompt-Driven Residual Correction

arXiv:2606.15288v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Greenland iceberg discharge exhibits complex nonlinear dynamics with limited observability, challenging traditional predictive models. We present a Hybrid NARX-LLM framework that combines a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and a large language model (LLM) for residual correction. We further propose a Physics-Informed Prompt (PIP) method that transforms unstructured physical knowledge into structured prompts for zero-shot in-context reasoning. The primary objective is to explore the corrective potential of this framework for modeling Greenland iceberg discharge, rather than merely optimizing predictive accuracy. The NARX component captures intrinsic temporal dependencies, while the LLM, guided by PIP, encodes glacier dynamics and environmental drivers and perceives key trend patterns to correct systematic prediction errors. This integration allows the model to reason about unmodeled factors and produce interpretable residuals, enhancing overall predictive accuracy. Applied to Greenland iceberg discharge time series, our approach addresses extreme events that are difficult to predict due to rare variations and nonstationary trends, a limitation often overlooked by traditional methods. By fusing structured time-series modeling with knowledge-driven foundation AI, the framework offers a scalable and interpretable pathway to bridge data-limited climate forecasting with physics-informed LLM reasoning. The code is available.

18.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Development of a symptom-based severity score anchored to health-related quality of life post-COVID-19 within the population-based EPILOC cohorts

Purpose Because simple symptom counts treat all symptoms as equally important and may not adequately capture the HRQoL impact of heterogeneous post-COVID-19 symptoms, we aimed to develop an HRQoL-anchored symptom severity score providing an interpretable measure of post-COVID-19 disease burden. Methods Baseline data from the population-based EPILOC and EPILOC Omicron surveys (adults aged 18-65 years) were used to develop a symptom-based severity score anchored to physical and mental HRQoL assessed with the SF-12. A two-stage modelling approach was applied to identify HRQoL-relevant symptoms and to derive symptom-specific weights for physical and mental component scores, incorporating 30 ordinal symptom severity variables. Symptom-specific weights were extracted to compute physical, mental, and composite severity scores. Score interpretation was examined using external reference measures, including EPILOC case status, self-reported health recovery, and functional consequences. Results A total of 19,004 participants (mean age 44.3 years, 59.6% female) were included. Sixteen symptoms contributed to the physical and eleven to the mental HRQoL score, with a limited subset accounting for most of the HRQoL loss. Severity scores were heavily right-skewed, with 50.6% of participants showing no measurable HRQoL impairment. Higher scores correlated with lower self-reported recovery, and increased probability of rehabilitation use and health-related changes in working time, supporting convergent and criterion-related validity. Conclusions This study introduces a transparent, HRQoL-anchored symptom severity score that measures graded post-COVID-19 burden beyond simple symptom counts. The score may be particularly suited for longitudinal assessment of recovery trajectories.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Memory as a Wasting Asset: Pricing Flash Endurance for Embodied Agents, and the Limits of Doing So

arXiv:2606.18144v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A robot's flash endurance is a non-renewable stock: every persisted write spends one of a few thousand program/erase cycles and never refills, yet no fielded robot memory system prices which memories are worth an erase cycle. We treat embodied memory as depreciating capital and price that stock with a single endurance shadow price $\eta$, which makes cost-minimizing placement across a RAM / on-board NVM / cloud hierarchy a threshold in a wear-augmented per-byte index. The index is cost-optimal whatever the sign of the value-write association $\chi$; only when $\chi > 0$ does the optimum turn non-monotone, sending a robot's most valuable memories off its flash. The pivot is thus empirical, and we measure $\chi$ on real robot logs at a pre-specified gate: its sign is a property of the deployment regime – positive on recurrent long-horizon manipulation ($\hat{\chi} \approx +1.0 \times 10^{-3}$, replicated at full power), null on a shorter-horizon suite, and negative on non-recurrent teleoperation. Two boundaries scope the result. The endurance budget is dormant on premium 3,000-P/E TLC at datasheet prices and binding on the commodity QLC/eMMC ($\sim$1,000 P/E) that cheaper edge robots run. And where it binds, a learned wear-aware controller only ties price-based routing on task value, because realized value is tier-invariant across RAM, NVM, and cloud: the rent governs device lifetime and cost, not task performance. Whether wear-aware placement improves task value remains open – $\chi$ is measured against a value proxy, and the non-monotone optimum, while proven, is not yet observed in data.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Teaching Diffusion to Speculate Left-to-Right

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks, but their autoregressive decoding process incurs substantial inference costs due to inherently sequential token generation. Speculative decoding addresses this bottleneck by employing a lightweight draft model to propose multiple future tokens that are subsequently verified in parallel by a larger target model. Recent work has demonstrated that diffusion language models are well suited for this setting, as they can generate entire blocks of draft tokens in parallel and thereby alleviate the sequential constraints of autoregressive drafting. A subtlety of this regime is that block-diffusion drafters generate tokens bidirectionally within a block, whereas verification is performed by an autoregressive target model that evaluates tokens in a strictly left-to-right manner, leaving a gap between the symmetric training-time objective and the asymmetric verification-time reward. In this work, we offer an empirical analysis of three training-time interventions that narrow this gap: token positional weighting, a first-error focal loss that targets the position that breaks the accepted prefix within each block, and a chain loss term that substitutes a differentiable surrogate for the expected accepted length. The three interventions act along orthogonal axes (position, block-conditional first error, joint prefix) and compose additively; they are likewise orthogonal to test-time alignment mechanisms such as multi-draft self-selection, with which they can in principle be combined. Across four target models and six reasoning, code, and dialogue benchmarks, the three interventions raise accepted draft length by 21-76% per benchmark over a position-uniform baseline, without adding additional forward passes and without changing the inference pipeline or the rejection-sampling exactness contract.

21.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-22

Development and validation of a risk prediction algorithm to estimate all-cause mortality among community-dwelling Canadians: the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT)

BACKGROUND: The risk of all-cause mortality can inform decision-making for chronic disease prevention. We developed a predictive algorithm to estimate the 5-year risk of death among community-dwelling adults. METHODS: We derived and validated the Mortality Population Risk Tool (MPoRT) using data from population health surveys in Canada (the Canadian Community Health Survey) and the United States (the National Health Interview Survey), survey years 2001 to 2011, linked to vital statistics. The outcome was death within five years of the survey response. The algorithm was developed using data from Ontario respondents using a Cox proportional hazards model, then modified and re-estimated to allow cross-national assessment in Canada and the United States. Twenty-three prespecified predictors were assessed: seven sociodemographic, six behavioural, and ten general health and chronic disease. RESULTS: 527,369 respondents aged 20 to 105 years were included in the Canadian and United States development and validation cohorts, with 43,758 deaths during 3.68 million person-years follow-up. The final sex-specific MPoRT algorithms each contained 21 variables, showing strong discrimination (C-statistic: females 0.874 [0.871–0.877]; males 0.867 [0.865–0.871]) and good calibration overall and in 246 of 247 subgroups. Discrimination was modestly attenuated (0.01 decrease in C-statistic) in cross-national validation between Canada and the United States, with good calibration across all 71 subgroups. INTERPRETATION: MPoRT accurately discriminated all-cause mortality using only self-reported data, enabling broad application without clinical measures. While validation outside North America is needed to confirm broader applicability, MPoRT is designed for straightforward recalibration using routinely available national mortality data. This supports targeted chronic disease prevention strategies at both the population and individual levels, though the limitations inherent to self-reported predictors should be considered when interpreting predictions.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Visualizing LLM Latent Space Geometry Through Dimensionality Reduction

arXiv:2511.21594v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) achieve state-of-the-art results across many natural language tasks, but their internal mechanisms remain difficult to interpret. In this work, we extract, process, and visualize latent state geometries in Transformer-based language models through dimensionality reduction. We capture layerwise activations at multiple points within Transformer blocks and enable systematic analysis through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). We demonstrate experiments on GPT-2 and LLaMa models, where we uncover interesting geometric patterns in latent space. Notably, we identify a clear separation between attention and MLP component outputs across intermediate layers, a pattern not documented in prior work to our knowledge. We also characterize the high norm of latent states at the initial sequence position and visualize the layerwise evolution of latent states. Additionally, we demonstrate the high-dimensional helical structure of GPT-2's positional embeddings and the sequence-wise geometric patterns in LLaMa. We make our code available at https://github.com/Vainateya/Feature_Geometry_Visualization. A better formatted blog-post with identical content is available at https://iclr-blogposts.github.io/2026/blog/2026/vis-llm-latent-geometry/.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Mixed-Precision Communication-Avoiding SGD for Generalized Linear Models on GPUs

arXiv:2606.18463v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Distributed stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is limited by communication rather than computation, since each iteration requires an AllReduce across processes. Communication-avoiding SGD (CA-SGD) amortizes communication over $s$ iterations by replacing $s$ consecutive AllReduces with a single AllReduce of an $sb\times sb$ Gram matrix, trading more computation and bandwidth for fewer synchronization points. Modern GPUs with matrix hardware and reduced-precision formats offset this by accelerating the Gram GEMM and shrinking BF16 traffic. We study mixed-precision CA-SGD for generalized linear models on NVIDIA GPUs. Our finite-precision analysis decomposes the local rounding error of one CA-SGD outer iteration into nine independent precision choices, depending on the hardware only through its low-precision unit roundoffs, so the resulting recipes transfer in principle across GPU generations. The recipe stores the input matrix and margin vector in low precision, computes the Gram matrix from low-precision inputs with high-precision accumulation, communicates it in high precision, and performs the inner recurrence and weight updates in high precision. On NERSC Perlmutter A100 GPUs, mixed-precision CA-SGD matches FP32 SGD loss within $0.5\%$ on logistic, linear, and Poisson problems and reaches $5.1$–$6.8\times$ speedup over FP32 SGD on epsilon, SUSY, HIGGS, synth, and Poisson-synth. Our software is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20448273

24.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-17

Order statistics for edge eigenvectors of Wigner matrices

arXiv:2606.17425v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we establish a general comparison theorem for the order statistics of the edge eigenvectors for generalized Wigner matrices. Consequently, we derive the Gumbel law for the maximal edge eigenvector component and prove the universality of the Gaussian fluctuations of the order statistics in an intermediate regime close to the maximum. In addition, our comparison result also implies a quantitative first order estimate for moderately small order statistics.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Re-feeding Is Not Replaying: Measuring Replay Noise in Counterfactual Token-Credit Estimation

Per-token counterfactual credit estimation asks which token in a language-model rollout caused the final answer to be right or wrong: cut the transcript at a pivot, substitute an alternative token, replay continuations, and compare outcomes. Published methods re-feed the transcript prefix as a fresh prompt, assuming this reproduces the state the model passed through during generation. We measure what that assumption costs on a stock inference engine, with a three-pass design: continuations resumed from the verified decode-time KV state, an identical second exact pass (a replica noise floor), and a re-feed pass. Across six configurations and three models (including a GRPO-trained checkpoint), at low-margin decision tokens, re-feeding changes the credit estimate at rates 14-28 percentage points above the replica floor (7-21pp under a treatment-independent conditioning; problem-clustered t = 2.9-6.4). Most changes are zero-boundary crossings of the quantized estimator rather than polarity reversals, and the perturbation is consistent with mean-zero, so averaged quantities are largely safe; but selection is not: a critical-token set chosen by thresholding $|\hat{A}_t|$ under re-feed overlaps the exact-resume selection at Jaccard 0.34-0.90, versus a 0.63-0.96 replica ceiling. A causal confirmation closes the loop: under vLLM's batch-invariant kernels all three passes are identical on every measured channel, with both disagreement rates exactly zero. Replica passes themselves disagree on 9-23% of eligible estimates: single-sample credit measurements at decision tokens are unreliable under any replay. Settings were fixed in advance; exact-pass cache hits in the second campaign are instrumented (100% hit rate, 3,434 pivots); total compute was under 10 USD. We recommend that counterfactual credit studies resume decoder state or use batch-invariant kernels, and report a replica floor.