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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

JustDiag!: A Diagnostic Justification Engine for Accountable Root Cause Analysis

arXiv:2606.19407v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models can produce fluent root cause analyses, but fluent final answers alone are insufficient evidence for accountability in high-stakes operations. In real incident response, engineers need to know what evidence supported a diagnosis, which alternatives were considered, where contradictions remained, and whether the system resolved the case or preserved uncertainty. We address this gap with JustDiag, a diagnostic justification engine for RCA that maintains an explicit process state over evidence, findings, competing hypotheses, conflicts, and next checks. We evaluated the system on 66 real-world incidents using a two-layer protocol that separately scores final-answer quality and process quality. Relative to a matched control without diagnostic justification, JustDiag achieved stronger outcome and process scores, while accepting slightly lower terminal completion due to more calibrated non-closure. These results suggest that accountable RCA requires explicit diagnostic justification artifacts and process-aware evaluation, not only fluent final answers.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Semantic Editing with Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations

Editing the content of an image with a pretrained text-to-image model remains challenging. Existing methods often distort fine details or introduce unintended artifacts. We propose using coupled stochastic differential equations (coupled SDEs) to guide the sampling process of any pre-trained generative model that can be sampled by solving an SDE, including diffusion and rectified flow models. By driving both the source image and the edited image with the same correlated noise, our approach steers new samples toward the desired semantics while preserving visual similarity to the source. The method works out-of-the-box, without retraining or auxiliary networks, and achieves high prompt fidelity along with near-pixel-level consistency. These results position coupled SDEs as a simple yet powerful tool for controlled generative AI. Project page: https://z-jianxin.github.io/syncSDE-release/. Code: https://github.com/Z-Jianxin/syncSDE-release.

03.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-10

A prognostic human brain network for diffuse midline glioma

作者:

Diffuse midline gliomas (DMGs) are near-universally lethal tumours of the childhood central nervous system1,2. In animal models, DMGs form brain-wide integrated networks through neuron-to-glioma synapses3–6 and glioma-to-glioma gap junctional coupling3. This extensive connectivity robustly promotes the growth and invasion of DMG3–9 and other glial malignancies10–12 through paracrine mechanisms and direct neuron-to-glioma synapses. However, the organization and clinical implications of these connections in the living human brain remain to be elucidated. Here, we develop tumour network mapping to compute the brain-wide connectivity profile of DMG, defining a conserved brain network across pontine and thalamic DMG associated with patient short-term survival (DMG network). Tumour functional connectivity with the DMG network was independently predictive of patient overall survival across two external validation cohorts. Tumour growth mapped to DMG network-specific trajectories and peak in-network neurometabolic changes across development spatiotemporally aligned with the peak age incidence of DMG. Analyses of single-nucleus RNA sequencing data confirmed diverse synaptic gene enrichment in high-connectivity DMG. Strikingly, incidental surgical resection of high-connectivity thalamic DMG tissue conferred a significant survival advantage. Collectively, these data define a conserved and prognostically important brain network in children with DMG, consistent with the hypothesis that DMGs exploit otherwise healthy brain circuits to promote tumour growth. Tumour network mapping of diffuse midline glioma (DMG) defines a conserved and prognostically important brain network in children with DMG, consistent with the hypothesis that DMGs exploit otherwise healthy brain circuits to promote tumour growth.

04.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Mixed-State Topological Order under Coherent Noise

arXiv:2411.03441v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Mixed-state phases of matter under local decoherence have recently garnered significant attention due to the ubiquitous presence of noise in current quantum processors. One of the key issues is understanding how topological quantum memory is affected by realistic coherent noise, such as random rotation noise and amplitude-damping noise. In this work, we investigate the intrinsic error threshold of the two-dimensional toric code (TC), a paradigmatic topological quantum memory, under these types of coherent noise by employing both analytical and numerical methods based on the doubled-Hilbert-space formalism. A connection between the mixed-state phase of the decohered TC and a non-Hermitian Ashkin-Teller-type statistical-mechanics model is established, and the mixed-state phase diagrams under the coherent noise are obtained. We find remarkable stability of mixed-state topological order under random rotation noise with axes near the $Y$-axis of qubits. We also identify intriguing extended critical regions at the phase boundaries, highlighting a connection with non-Hermitian physics. We argue that these phase boundaries provide upper bounds for the intrinsic error threshold, beyond which quantum error correction becomes impossible. We complement these findings by estimating the error thresholds for random rotation noise under standard quantum error correction, thereby providing lower bounds on the intrinsic error threshold.

05.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Examining the Limits of Word2Vec with Toki Pona

Word2Vec's effectiveness at generating semantic embeddings has been widely validated, yet it has been tested almost exclusively on languages with large vocabulary inventories. This study examines whether Word2Vec can successfully capture semantic relationships within an extremely reduced vocabulary using data from Toki Pona, a constructed language with approximately 130 words. We sourced 1.4 million sentences (7.95 million tokens) from the Toki Pona community for training. Approximately 23% of sentences in the corpus contain non-Toki Pona tokens such as named entities, loanwords, and neologisms. To investigate whether this linguistic noise enhances or hinders performance – a topic rarely addressed in word embedding literature – we trained two distinct models: one retaining these incidental tokens and another filtering them out completely. Evaluation was conducted using quantitative methods measuring word proximity to semantic category centroids, automated silhouette scores via agglomerative clustering, and qualitative analysis utilizing representational similarity matrices compared against English. The results indicate that while sparse, non-core tokens do not affect the relative structure of the learned embeddings, they actually draw similar words closer together in the vector space. Importantly, Word2Vec's effectiveness depends more on distributional patterns than lexicon size even at this extreme lower bound.

06.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

RealityBridge: Bridging Editable 3D Gaussian Splatting Driving Simulations and Real-World Videos

Long-tail hazardous scenarios are essential for safety-oriented autonomous driving, yet they are difficult to collect and reproduce at scale. Editable 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) simulation offers a promising alternative by reconstructing real driving scenes and supporting controllable scene editing. However, edited 3DGS-rendered videos still suffer from a significant Sim-to-Real gap, including rendering artifacts, degraded foreground assets, inconsistent illumination, and temporal flickering. Existing restoration and video generation methods are insufficient for this task, as they often fail to jointly repair 3DGS-specific artifacts, improve visual realism, and ensure temporal consistency. To fill this gap, we propose RealityBridge, a structure-preserving and asset-aware Sim-to-Real framework for edited 3DGS driving videos. RealityBridge uses multimodal controls, including rendered videos, foreground masks, edge maps, and semantic masks, together with a lightweight GateNet for adaptive condition allocation across backbone layers. We further construct targeted training data and introduce autoregressive long-video training with reward-guided post-training to improve restoration quality, temporal stability, and hallucination suppression. Extensive experiments on internal and public driving datasets show that RealityBridge outperforms existing methods in artifact removal, illumination harmonization, and long-sequence temporal consistency.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

How Inference Compute Shapes Frontier LLM Evaluation

arXiv:2606.17930v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI evaluations are shifting toward harder tasks that benefit from longer trajectories involving tool use and iterative problem solving. As a result, performance is increasingly sensitive to the amount and allocation of compute available at test time ("inference compute"). Yet many evaluations still report performance at a single restrictive budget, meaning that low scores may reflect the evaluation setup rather than the model's underlying capability. To test this, we evaluate up to 12 frontier language models on seven challenging benchmarks spanning software engineering, mathematics, medicine, and cybersecurity. We use a controlled setup combining three simple inference-scaling interventions: larger token budgets, context compaction, and repeated submission attempts, guided either by the model itself or by minimal correctness feedback. We find three main results. First, larger token budgets substantially improve performance on benchmarks across multiple domains, including cybersecurity, FrontierMath, Humanity's Last Exam, and TerminalBench. Second, fixed-budget evaluations can increasingly understate frontier capability as models advance. Newer models reach higher performance at large budgets, where they unlock harder tasks and solve them more reliably. Third, benchmarks differ in which inference-scaling methods help most: repeated submission broadly improves performance, but the value of larger token budgets, external feedback, and parallel attempts varies by benchmark. Overall, our results show that benchmark scores are protocol-dependent. We therefore argue that evaluations should report capability as a function of inference-time compute, specify protocol choices explicitly, and compare model generations over a large shared compute range at matched budgets, especially in safety- or policy-relevant settings.

08.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Sharp analysis of linear ensemble sampling

arXiv:2602.08026v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size $m=\Theta(d\log n)$, ES attains $\tilde O(d^{3/2}\sqrt n)$ high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for $m$ independent Brownian motions. This continuous-time lens appears particularly natural here: it yields an exact representation of the relevant discrete-time processes, and we do not know another route to a sharp ES bound.

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-17

Manipulation of Topological Corner States via Subchiral Symmetry

arXiv:2606.17975v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Higher-order topological phases provide robust corner modes, but their use requires controllable creation, isolation, and transfer of individual modes and their superpositions. Here we demonstrate, using the two-dimensional Benalcazar-Bernevig-Hughes model as an example, that subchiral symmetry provides a general control principle for manipulating topological corner modes. The conventional chiral symmetry decomposes into four subchiral symmetries, each associated with one zero-energy corner mode. By selectively breaking these subsymmetries with controlled intercell hoppings, we reduce the fourfold corner-state manifold step by step to single isolated modes. We further design adiabatic protocols that transfer either a single corner state or a superposition of two corner states between selected corners, while preserving the relative phase in the latter case. Both numerical simulations and IBM quantum-processor implementations show that the proposed protocols can be executed with high fidelity, establishing subchiral symmetry as a route to programmable higher-order topological state manipulation.

10.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

When Does Delegation Beat Majority? A Delegation-Based Aggregator for Multi-Sample LLM Inference

arXiv:2606.08098v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Majority voting over sampled answers is the dominant unsupervised aggregator for multi-sample LLM inference. In this paper, we show a delegation-based aggregator (Propagational Proxy Voting, PPV; Sakai et al., 2025) yields an unsupervised consensus rule that beats majority on MMLU-Pro by +1.5 pp overall and +2.24 pp on the non-trivial subset (paired McNemar p ~ 1.0e-14, n = 8,099). Majority discards two signals that every sample carries: within-group letter entropy and between-group reasoning geometry. PPV exposes per-voter levers that consume exactly these two signals: When (how much weight a voter keeps on its own pick) and Whom (how it splits the remainder across peers). We drive When with letter entropy and Whom with per-question-centered embedding cosine. Our method needs no gold labels and no auxiliary training: per-question, we partition 128 sampled generations into 16 groups, compute each group's letter-level semantic entropy and reasoning embedding centroid, and feed both into a stochastic delegation matrix whose stationary distribution selects the consensus answer. We walk through an example in which PPV overturns a clear 10-6 majority for the wrong letter: the 10-voter majority cluster is geometrically incoherent (mean within-cluster cosine -0.02) while the 6-voter minority is tight (+0.26), so propagated delegation mass concentrates on the minority's answer even though entropy alone would keep the majority ahead. We further report delegation strategies with negative results that constrain the design space for unsupervised LLM aggregation. No within-question ensemble of confidence modes closes the oracle gap.

11.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

HARBOR: Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar

Maritime situational awareness often relies on Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmissions to track vessel movements. However, in operational or conflict scenarios, these data may be unavailable due to signal loss, deliberate deactivation, or intentional spoofing. In such conditions, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery becomes a critical sensing alternative for wide-area maritime monitoring, despite providing only static scene snapshots. This work introduces HARBOR (Heading Analysis and Reconstruction from Behavioral Observation and Radar), a complete pipeline for transforming a single SAR image into predictive motion information without requiring any auxiliary data source at inference time. The method begins with SAR image preprocessing to enhance and segment vessel candidates, followed by automatic detection, size-based classification, and heading estimation using skeleton geometry and local intensity patterns. AIS data are used exclusively during an offline calibration phase to derive vessel-type-dependent motion parameters, which are then applied to generate probabilistic heatmaps of candidate future vessel positions. A case study using real COSMO-SkyMed SAR imagery demonstrates the pipeline on a maritime scene in southern Brazil, showing its ability to extract motion tendencies and generate probabilistic projections of vessel positions in data-denied environments.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

Beyond Third-Person Audits: Situated Interaction Auditing for User-Centered LLM Bias Research

Research on bias in large language models (LLMs) has predominantly focused on third-person audits, which study how models represent or evaluate demographic groups as external subjects. However, this paradigm overlooks a structural blind spot because the user is absent from the audit. In practice, LLMs are used in open-ended, personal interactions, during which the model implicitly represents the user and adjusts its responses accordingly. When identical requests yield different responses depending on who is asking, bias manifests not in how the model describes others but in how it treats its interlocutor. We propose Situated Interaction Auditing (SIA), a user-centered framework for studying how user profile signals – implicit sociodemographic markers, writing style, and stated identity – systematically shape LLM response quality, content, and tone. We demonstrate the framework through a case study that intersects gender and socioeconomic status signals across multiple task domains and outline a research agenda for SIA as a new mission for natural language processing.

13.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

PURe: A Plug-and-Play Product-Unit Residual Module for Vision Networks

Modern vision networks are dominated by additive local transformations, whereas explicit multiplicative local interactions remain underexplored. Product units offer a direct approach to modeling such interactions, but their use in deep architectures has been limited by optimization instability. In this work, we propose PURe, a Product-Unit Residual Module for deep vision networks. PURe is built around a 2D Product Unit with a real-valued log-domain formulation that makes multiplicative local aggregation practical within deep residual hierarchies. The resulting module serves as a drop-in replacement for native residual units. We instantiate PURe in residual CNNs for image classification and in 2D residual encoder-decoder networks for slice-based segmentation on volumetric CT data. Across Galaxy10 DECaLS, ImageNet, and CIFAR-10, PURe consistently improves residual CNNs and yields a more favorable accuracy-parameter trade-off, allowing moderately deep models to match or surpass substantially deeper ResNet baselines with much smaller parameter budgets. On the AMOS benchmark, PURe also improves slice-based CT segmentation under 3D case-level evaluation. These results show that explicit multiplicative local interaction is a practical and effective design primitive for deep residual vision networks.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-12

Adaptive Turn-Taking for Real-time Multi-Party Voice Agents

Turn-taking in multi-party spoken conversations remains a fundamental challenge for voice-based agents, particularly under dynamic floor competition and varying user expectations. We propose ModeratorLM, a role-playing voice agent that conditions turn-taking behavior on an explicitly assigned role in multi-party settings. The system is built on a speech large language model operating in chunk-wise streaming manner. We further introduce a reasoning-augmented variant that incorporates chain-of-thought reasoning over conversational context and the assigned role. We construct RolePlayConv, a large-scale synthetic dataset of spoken multi-party conversations with diverse assistant roles. Experiments on real-world meeting data and RolePlayConv show improved turn-taking precision by over 40% and recall by more than 70%, while substantially reducing false-positive interruptions compared to non-role-conditioned baselines.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

When Good Verifiers Go Bad: Self-Improving VLMs Can Regress on New Tasks

作者:

arXiv:2606.14629v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Verifier-driven self-DPO is a common recipe for self-improving production visual-language models. In this setup, a frozen verifier scores candidate generations, the top- and bottom-scoring candidates form a preference example, and DPO updates the learner. The deployment-time assumption is monotone: a stronger verifier should yield a stronger student. We show that this assumption can fail because verifier quality is highly task-specific. On a four-rung open-source verifier ladder across MathVista, MMMU, and BLINK, the same verifiers that are above-threshold and improve a Qwen-3-VL-2B student on MathVista become sub-threshold on MMMU, where their task-rubric accuracy drops to 8% to 23%. In this regime, every verifier we tested silently regresses the student, producing drops of 3.4 to 10.9 percentage points below the frozen baseline while the DPO training loss continues to decrease. The regression replicates on a second student, Qwen-2.5-VL-3B. Moreover, within the failure regime, damage is confidence-inverted: the more accurate-but-still-wrong verifier causes larger regression than a near-random verifier, suggesting that progress-gated replay amplifies confidently wrong preference pairs. We give a compact mechanistic explanation via a variance theorem for progress-gated replay and its direction-mismatch failure mode. The deployment message is operational rather than purely diagnostic: before running any verifier-driven loop, teams should measure target-task rubric accuracy, rank verifiers by target-task rubric quality rather than parameter count, and treat diminishing returns in above-threshold regimes as a verifier-side compute budget cap.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

LUCID: Learned Undersampling-Adaptive Consistency-Guided Inference with Deterministic Flow Matching for Sparse-View CT Reconstruction

Sparse-view CT reduces radiation dose and scanning time by acquiring fewer projection views, but angular undersampling makes reconstruction severely ill-posed, causing streak artifacts, structural blurring, and loss of fine details. Existing supervised methods are often tied to specific sampling settings, whereas generative methods may introduce anatomically inconsistent hallucination-like structures under severe undersampling. We propose Lucid, a sparsity-adaptive, consistency-guided reconstruction framework based on a Flow Matching generative prior for sparse-view CT. Lucid is trained only on high-quality CT images to learn a continuous transport between a Gaussian distribution and the high-quality CT image distribution, independent of view sampling. During inference, the sampling sparsity level is explicitly incorporated to adapt the generative trajectory of a single pretrained model. Specifically, Lucid constructs a degradation-matched initial state by sparsity-weighted fusion of the sparse-view FBP image and Gaussian noise, performs sparsity-modulated Flow Matching updates, and applies projection-domain data-consistency correction after each prior update. Experiments under multiple sparse-view settings show that Lucid achieves stable reconstruction performance across different sampling densities, improves image quality and structural fidelity, and reduces the risk of hallucination-like structures in generative sparse-view CT reconstruction.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Projection and Quantisation: A Unifying View of Learning to Hash, from Random Projections to the RAG Era

作者:

Approximate nearest-neighbour search underpins large-scale retrieval and retrieval-augmented generation, yet its methods are studied in communities that seldom read one another. We argue that they form one field with three design choices. We develop the projection-quantisation-organisation lens: every method places its projections, places its quantisation thresholds, and organises the resulting codes for search. We test the lens with a reproducible measurement, released as the open BitBudget benchmark, and report three findings. First, the quantisation axis delivers the largest memory savings: a one-bit code with full-precision re-ranking matches uncompressed quality for six of seven embedders, the scanned code one thirty-second of the float's size. Second, the orderings the lens anticipates, including a learned-embedding regime where binary codes overtake an inverted-file product quantiser at a matched byte budget, recur as the embedding is enlarged. Third, given class labels, an eight-byte supervised code more than doubles the retrieval quality of the two-kilobyte task-agnostic float it replaces. We also recast the semantic identifiers of generative retrieval as quantisation codes. The main contribution is a single, tested account of compact-code search, from random projections to the retrieval-augmented era.

18.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Fun with Graph States: Nonlocal Bell Pairs and the Arf Invariant

arXiv:2606.06582v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study inner products and partial amplitudes of graph states–a commonly employed class of quantum states, which are specified by graphs. We find that the magnitudes of these quantities are simply related to the rank of the adjacency matrix of the graph over F_2 while the phase is determined by the Arf invariant of its quadratic refinement. These facts motivate a nonlocal tensor factorization of the Hilbert space, with respect to which all graph states are products of Bell pairs with unentangled ancillae. These results may illuminate the quantum advantage in the framework of Measurement-Based Quantum Computation and suggest that graph states can be usefully visualized in the language of algebraic topology. In addition, we develop a specialized technique for computing expectation values of qubit-wise permutations in graph states, which is useful for calculating multi-invariants.

19.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

Judging to Improve: A De-biased VLM-as-3D-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Generation

arXiv:2606.20364v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A companion study established a de-biased, cross-model VLM-as-3D-judge that reliably ranks single-image-to-3D mesh quality where cheap geometry and CLIP proxies fall short. This paper asks: can that judge's preferences specialize a strong open generator, TRELLIS, on one asset class (furniture), cheaply and without human labels? Taking the judge from ranking to optimization is where the work lives. Pushing a VLM judge into the training and evaluation loop exposes failure modes ranking never triggered, so our contribution is an optimization-grade hardening of the judge: a training judge (Qwen2.5-VL-7B) held distinct from an evaluation judge (InternVL3-8B) to break circularity; position-bias correction; and fixes for three failure modes (image overload, geometry-hiding splat renders, and reference-free judging that rewards clean-but-wrong outputs), with calibration evidence (clear-gap win-rate 0.83-1.0; base-vs-base ~0.5). Using this protocol as an independent evaluator, and working only from public models and data with lightweight parameter-efficient adaptation, we find our methods match the strong base rather than exceed it. Independent base samples carry essentially no learnable preference (0.94 order-flip rate), so signal must be engineered by quality-contrastive construction. Across six adaptation methods, two input regimes, and a severity sweep, the most targeted - conditioner repair under severe degradation - reaches parity (0.50) with the base, while no method clears the >=65% win-rate target. The result is mechanistic: clean inputs saturate the judge, flow-DIT fine-tuning washes out through the sampler, and conditioning repair is the locus that moves geometry. Win-rates are directional at n=8 objects. Matching a strong public-data base with cheap adaptation is itself informative: exceeding it needs more than lightweight PEFT on public data, and the judge protocol is reusable.

20.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

AI Sovereignty as National Learning Capacity: A Human-Centered Learning Mechanics Viewpoint on France, the United States, and China

arXiv:2606.00729v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Artificial intelligence in France is often discussed through separate dimensions such as investment, compute, regulation, employment, sovereignty, and education. This viewpoint paper proposes a unified interpretation: France can be analyzed as a national AI learning system. Building on Human-Centered Learning Mechanics (HCLM), we use HCLM not as a validated econometric model, but as a conceptual and diagnostic lens for interpreting national AI development as a balance between information injection, absorptive capacity, and institutional dissipation. Information injection includes compute, data, talent, research, capital, industrial deployment, and policy experimentation. Institutional dissipation refers to avoidable frictions such as administrative overload, coordination failures, energy constraints, regulatory uncertainty, talent mobility pressures, and weak industrial absorption. Regulation is not treated as mere friction: adaptive governance, trusted data spaces, and safety-oriented standards may increase long-term learning capacity by improving legitimacy, interoperability, and social trust. The central claim is not that a country follows neural-network equations, but that AI sovereignty depends on how effectively it converts distributed information into absorbed, coordinated, and socially legitimate capability. The paper connects HCLM with neural scaling laws, endogenous growth theory, creative destruction, absorptive capacity, and coordination mechanisms. It offers a formal heuristic, policy indicators, illustrative scenarios, and implications for France. The numerical results are diagnostic scenarios, not econometric estimates or official rankings. The proposed viewpoint reframes AI policy as the governance of an open, strategic, non-equilibrium learning system that should be tested with historical and cross-country data.

21.
PLOS Computational Biology 2026-06-15

A multilevel hierarchical framework for quantification of experimental heterogeneity in population snapshot data

by David J. Warne, Xiangrun Zhu, Thomas P. Steele, Stuart T. Johnston, Scott A. Sisson, Matthew Faria, Ryan J. Murphy, Alexander P. Browning Biological systems exhibit substantial heterogeneity: that is, variation in specific characteristics of individuals within a population. As a result, it is of critical importance to appropriately account for biological heterogeneity when calibrating mathematical models to infer cellular processes and predict behaviour. Recent approaches consider ordinary differential equations with random parameters to quantify heterogeneity in dynamical processes of cells. In this setting, statistical inference is performed to characterise the distribution of these random parameters within a cell population. One significant limitation of this approach is the tacit assumption that there are no substantial deviations in these distributions across experimental replicates. In this work, we propose a flexible Bayesian hierarchical differential equation modelling framework that quantifies and distinguishes both inter-experimental heterogeneity (heterogeneity between experimental replicates) and intra-experimental heterogeneity (biological heterogeneity within replicate populations). We consider two recent studies that employ mathematical models to interpret flow cytometry snap-shot data and quantify heterogeneity in nano-particle cell interactions and cell internalisation processes. Using simulation data, we demonstrate that substantial inaccuracy in the inferred dynamics can arise when experimental heterogeneity is not accounted for. By contrast, our hierarchical approach is robust to variability in inter-experimental and intra-experimental heterogeneity and our method simplifies to previous methods when inter-experimental heterogeneity is negligible. Our approach is flexible and widely applicable to applications involving replicate populations and snapshot data. We provide open-source implementations of our methods on GitHub.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Diabetes is associated with increased nocturnal respiratory rate

Background and Objective: Diabetes mellitus (DM) causes autonomic neuropathy, which may alter nocturnal respiratory rate (NRR). To test the association between DM and NRR, we analyzed elective polysomnograms of four large observational cohorts. Research Design and Methods: We performed cross-sectional analysis of over 25,000 individuals with polysomnograms (PSGs) from the Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS), Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS), and Wisconsin Sleep Cohort (WSC). Patient-level NRRs were derived from inductance plethysmography waveforms. DM status was determined by self-report, physician diagnosis, medication use, or laboratory values, depending on the cohort. We related DM and NRR (continuous and dichotomized) using logistic regression models and adjusted for potential confounders. Cohort-specific results were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Meta-analysis of unadjusted models showed a pooled odds ratio (OR) of 1.10 (95% CI:1.04-1.17) for each breath-per-minute (brpm) increase in NRR. This association remained significant after multivariable adjustment (OR:1.06, 95% CI:1.02-1.11). Dichotomized analyses similarly showed higher odds of DM across dichotomization thresholds ranging from 15 to 21 brpm. At a threshold of 18 brpm, the unadjusted pooled OR was 1.77 (95% CI:1.23-2.55, P=0.0022), and the adjusted OR was 1.49 (95% CI:1.10-2.02, P=0.0098). Conclusions: Clinically stable outpatients with elevated NRR have an increased prevalence of DM. Additional studies are needed to investigate whether the mechanism is autonomic neuropathy and whether monitoring NRR can detect early complications of DM.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Analysing drivers and interdependencies in European electricity markets using XAI

arXiv:2606.19118v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electricity markets are inherently complex systems characterised by strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional interactions, and increasing interdependence across regions. While deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for electricity prices, their lack of interpretability limits their usefulness for understanding the underlying drivers of price formation. This paper addresses this gap by combining DNN models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to analyse the determinants of electricity prices across 39 European bidding zones. We employ SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature contributions and apply and extend SSHAP, an aggregation framework to improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings. The analysis identifies that renewable energy sources, particularly solar, play a disproportionately important role in price formation despite their lower share in total power generation. Gas prices remain a dominant and consistent driver across electricity markets, while interconnections significantly shape price dynamics, highlighting the strong interdependence of European electricity systems. In addition, a synthetic EU-wide electricity market is constructed to explore the counterfactual scenario of a fully integrated market with a single price.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

A Spatio-Temporal Expert Prefetching Framework for Efficient MoE-based LLM Inference

arXiv:2606.15453v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) based large language models (LLMs), such as Qwen and DeepSeek, have recently emerged as an effective approach to improving model capacity without proportionally increasing computational cost. By replacing the conventional feed-forward network in dense LLMs with a set of experts and activating only a subset of them for each input token, MoE models significantly increase the total number of parameters while keeping the per-token computation relatively manageable. However, this dynamic and irregular expert activation pattern also introduces substantial expert loading overhead during inference, since the required experts must be fetched on demand according to token-dependent routing results. As a result, expert loading latency becomes a major source of performance and energy inefficiency. To this end, we first perform a comprehensive analysis of expert selection behavior in various MoE-based LLMs and applications, including language understanding and code generation. Our analysis reveals that, within each application domain, expert requests exhibit strong correlation across both adjacent MoE layers and consecutive decoding tokens, making future expert activations predictable. Based on this insight, we propose ST-MoE, a spatio-temporal expert prefetching framework that proactively stages experts ahead of use to overlap expert loading with ongoing computation. ST-MoE combines a lightweight runtime prediction mechanism that preserves the original routing behavior with a reconfigurable hardware design that efficiently supports dynamic expert prefetching. The combined effect of the prediction mechanism with the supporting hardware significantly improves MoE inference performance and energy efficiency while preserving model inference accuracy.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-11

When is Your LLM Steerable?

Activation steering offers a lightweight approach to control language models' behavior at inference time, but whether it succeeds or fails heavily depends on the prompt, concept, model, and steering configuration. Finding the regime and boundaries of successful steering typically requires expensive grid searches and post-hoc evaluation of full autoregressive rollouts. In this work, we investigate whether steerability can be predicted from the model's internal states at the beginning of the generation process, e.g., after generating the first few tokens, and how to leverage such a predictor to improve steering success rate. To this end, we first introduce ASTEER, a testbed including 1.4M steered generations, spanning 150 concepts with each steering success/failure labeled. Leveraging this testbed, we analyze the model's early decoding dynamics by extracting features that compare hidden states before and after steering across layers and initial decoding steps. These features help us understand how steering's effects propagate along layers and token positions, which provide key information for steerability prediction. We then train a Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) classifier on these features to predict whether an intervention will under-steer, succeed, or over-steer without requiring full rollout. Our predictor achieves around 0.7 macro-F1 score on unseen concepts, demonstrating that early hidden states encode substantial, structured information about eventual steering efficacy. We further leverage this steerability predictor as guidance for steering strength searching, achieving near-optimal performance with a small fraction of decoding cost.