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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

AI Researchers Must Help Lead Arms Control to Mitigate Military AI Risks

arXiv:2606.11533v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The advancement of AI capabilities compels researchers and the public to be more aware of its potential worldwide impact. A pressing near-term concern is the regulation of military AI applications. Armament manufacturers and defense contractors are increasingly investing in AI capabilities and forging partnerships with AI companies, creating a burgeoning coalition that demands military leaders, arms control diplomacy experts, and AI researchers collaborate to ensure a safer future. While AI researchers often focus on the long-term implications of superintelligent AI, this approach may not adequately address the immediate challenges posed by AI in military applications. Success requires acknowledging and mitigating the emerging risks of frontier AI models that plan to be integrated into defense applications, like military AI systems. Arms control has reduced past catastrophic risks, so lessons learned from nuclear deterrence can guide AI safety and security research towards innovations in verification and diplomacy. AI researchers, however, must assist in leading the technical research that clearly defines and alleviates instability in military settings. Given these new responsibilities and the lack of sufficiently reliable solutions, we argue that AI researchers must take a leading role in advancing arms control research to minimize risk in military AI applications.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

All Eyes on the Workflow: Automated and Efficient Event Discovery from Video Streams

Disciplines such as business process management and process mining aid organizations by discovering insights about processes on the basis of recorded event data. However, an obstacle to process analysis is data multi-modality: for instance, data in video form are not directly interpretable as events. Existing approaches rely on a dictionary of activity label as input, cannot provide frame-by-frame labeling explanations, or rely on superseded computer vision techniques. In this work, we present SnapLog, an approach to extract event data from videos by converting frames to feature vectors using image embeddings and performing temporal segmentation through frame-wise similarity matrices. A generalized few-shot classification is then used to assign labels to the video segments, yielding labeled, timestamped sub-sequences of frames that are interpretable as events. Conventional process mining techniques can be used to analyze the resulting data. We show that our approach produces logs that accurately reflect the process in the videos.

03.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Mathematical Basis for Analyzing Superconducting Phase Transitions Using Catastrophe Theory

arXiv:2606.11810v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We establish a rigorous mathematical bridge from quantum many-body path integrals to the cusp catastrophe model by Lyapunov-Schmidt reduction, which provides a theoretical foundation for analyzing superconducting phase transition using the catastrophe theory. First, it is proved that, near the critical point the infinite-dimensional effective action is diffeomorphic to a finite-dimensional catastrophe. Secondly, starting from Ginzburg-Landau free energy functional, the Euler-Lagrange partial differential equation can be reduced to the cusp catastrophe model. Thirdly, the fermionic imaginary-time path integral to the cusp catastrophe is derived through the Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation, Matsubara frequency expansion, and Grassmann algebra. Furthermore, we connect this framework with the adsorption potential theory we proposed, elucidating the catastrophic topological nature of the electron pairing mechanism in high-temperature superconductivity. The precise microscopic derivation of the adsorption potential from first-principles electronic structure calculations would strengthen the predictive power of the theory.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Ranking Abuse via Strategic Pairwise Data Perturbations

arXiv:2604.17805v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Pairwise ranking systems based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), such as the Bradley-Terry model, are widely used to aggregate preferences from pairwise comparisons. However, their robustness under strategic data manipulation remains insufficiently understood. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of MLE-based ranking systems to adversarial perturbations. We formulate the manipulation task as a constrained combinatorial optimization problem and propose an Adaptive Subset Selection Attack (ASSA) to efficiently identify high-impact perturbations. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real-world election datasets show that MLE-based rankings exhibit a sharp phase-transition behavior: beyond a small perturbation budget, a limited number of strategic voters can significantly alter the global ranking. In particular, our method consistently outperforms random and greedy baselines under constrained budgets. These findings reveal a fundamental sensitivity of MLE-based ranking mechanisms to structured perturbations and highlight the need for more robust aggregation methods in collective decision-making systems.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Mask-Proof: An LLM-based Automated Data Curation Pipeline on Mathematical Proofs

arXiv:2606.15258v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of mathematical problem solving and can even assist with research-level proofs, yet we still lack a scalable and reproducible way to measure step-level reasoning in long proofs across diverse sources. This evaluation gap limits trustworthy AI assistance in proof-certified scientific progress. Existing evaluations often emphasize final answers or rely on costly expert grading, while end-to-end proof generation remains open-ended and hard to verify automatically. We introduce Mask-Proof, a pipeline that turns real proofs into automatically checkable masked-step tasks. It masks key formula steps, provides the necessary surrounding context, and evaluates model reconstructions with an LLM-based equivalence judge using repeated votes for stability. The resulting Mask-ProofBench contains 292 curated problems across diverse research areas. Experiments with 17 models show that reasoning-enhanced models outperform standard models by 12% to 27%. Our evaluator achieves 96.8% agreement with expert annotators, enabling faithful, reproducible, and comparable measurement of step-level mathematical reasoning. Benchmark, annotations, and code are available at https://github.com/weating/Mask-Proof.

06.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-15

MoDiCoL: A Modular Diagnostic Continual Learning Dataset for Robust Speech Recognition

Modern Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems have made remarkable progress on standard benchmarks, yet performance gaps have emerged under real-world distribution shifts, caused by recording conditions, accents, speech impairments, and noise. Existing datasets and benchmarks typically isolate these factors, which overlooks their co-occurrence in real-world applications. In this paper, we argue that model robustness can be treated as a dynamic capability that continually develops, and we introduce MoDiCoL, a Modular Diagnostic Continual Learning dataset designed for controlled analysis of linguistic content, speaker characteristics, and acoustic environments. Furthermore, we propose a real-world-inspired continual learning curriculum to simulate incremental updates and study how robustness is acquired, transferred, and forgotten. We evaluate three continual learning strategies and provide detailed insights into robustness under evolving conditions.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Gen-VCoT: Generative Visual Chain-of-Thought Reasoning via Diffusion-Based RGB Intermediate Representations

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) excel at visual reasoning but rely on text-based chain-of-thought (CoT), lacking interpretable visual intermediates. Existing methods use opaque tokens or external tools, missing key properties. We propose Gen-VCoT, a framework using expert vision models to generate RGB images as reasoning intermediates. It has three stages: visual grounding (SAM segmentation), geometric reasoning (Marigold depth maps), and semantic reasoning (Qwen2-VL integration). An adaptive router selects reasoning depth. Evaluations show Gen-VCoT improves spatial (25% better) and depth (50% better) questions, but may hurt simple factual queries. Text CoT outperforms visual intermediates on CLEVR (91.2% vs 62.5%), showing task-dependent optimal representations. Gen-VCoT establishes a new paradigm for interpretable multimodal reasoning.

08.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

OmniOPSD: Rationale-Privileged On-Policy Self-Distillation for Affective Computing

Reinforcement learning for multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is often hindered by severe reward sparsity in complex reasoning tasks. This challenge is particularly pronounced in human-centered scenarios involving states, emotions, intentions, and behaviors, where heterogeneous multimodal signals and subjective human factors make high-quality chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations expensive and difficult to obtain. Although many multimodal datasets provide expert-annotated ground-truth labels, directly using these labels for supervised fine-tuning may encourage shortcut learning in multimodal perception and provides limited transparency for safety-critical human–AI interaction. To address these limitations, we propose OmniOPSD, a Rationale-Privileged On-Policy Self-Distillation framework that uses frontier-generated rationales as teacher-side privileged evidence rather than student imitation targets. OmniOPSD uses frontier-generated evidence-aware rationales only as training-time privileged evidence context for a local teacher. The student samples its own rollout from the original multimodal input, while the rationale-privileged teacher scores the same tokens and provides dense token-level supervision. Thus, the student learns on its own trajectory distribution without directly imitating frontier-model completions, and inference requires no labels, rationales, CoT annotations, or closed-source model access. Experiments on MER-UniBench show that OmniOPSD achieves state-of-the-art performance with an average score of $84.19$, and ablations further support the value of rationale-privileged teacher guidance.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Semantic Robustness Certification for Vision-Language Models

Vision-language models (VLMs) are now widely used in downstream tasks. However, real-world applications often expose VLMs to distribution shifts induced by semantic variation (e.g., shape, size, and style). Robustness certification determines if a model's prediction changes when transformations are applied to its input. While most certification frameworks study geometric or pixel-level transformations over inputs, this work proposes a novel framework that enables certifying VLM robustness under semantic-level transformations. Leveraging the open-vocabulary capability of VLMs, we use text prompts as semantic proxies to construct transformations parameterized by an extent that controls the degree of semantic variation. By characterizing the VLM decision boundary in closed form, our framework quantitatively certifies extent intervals for which the predicted class remains unchanged under the semantic transformation. Our framework is the first to certify VLM robustness under semantic-level variations without requiring additional data for each variation, making it practical to apply. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our framework enables certifying robustness under diverse semantic variations across scenarios.

10.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Advancing Clinical Implementation of Cardiovascular Polygenic Risk Scores Through Patient-Level Robustness Assessment

Background and Aims: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) can perform equivalently at the population level yet disagree for individual patients. We examined whether such intra-individual variability reflects genuinely complementary risk information or mainly statistical and methodological uncertainty, and whether it affects clinical classification once PRSs are integrated into SCORE2-OP. Methods: In 4,137 ASCVD-free participants of the CoLaus|PsyCoLaus cohort (478 incident events over a median 14.4 years), we identified 16 ASCVD-PRSs with practically equivalent population-level performance using Bayesian equivalence testing. We quantified intra-individual variability (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, intraclass correlation, Cohen's kappa, extreme discordance), tested whether discordance exceeded chance, decomposed scores into shared and unique genetic components, and assessed variability after integration into SCORE2-OP, benchmarked against perturbation of systolic blood pressure. Results: For a typical individual, risk estimates varied by 18 percentile points across PRSs. Discordance matched chance expectations under a shared-signal model, with no distinct phenotypic profile among discordant individuals, and predictive power resided overwhelmingly in the shared genetic component. Variability tracked PRS size and weighting rather than distinct variants. After integration into SCORE2-OP, 75.6% of participants were placed in different categories by at least one model and 54.6% as both low and high risk; instability was concentrated near guideline thresholds and far exceeded that from blood-pressure measurement error. Conclusions: Equivalent population-level performance is not sufficient to treat PRSs as interchangeable at the individual level, and methodological standardisation and pragmatic clinical trials remain necessary to determine whether PRS integration improves long-term cardiovascular outcomes.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-15

Interpreting Bohm-like quantum potentials in "Computing quantum waves exactly from classical action"

arXiv:2605.20443v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The recent posting arXiv:2605.02621 [14], commenting on the article rspa.2025.0413 [7], argues that the proof of Lemma 3.1 in [7] is missing the spatial derivative of the density, which would lead to a Bohm-like quantum potential. This technical note shows why the propagated density is independent of space in the Feynman propagator construction of Lemma 3.1. This is done by extending the proof of Lemma 3.1 explicitly with Bohm-like quantum potential terms along the stationary action paths, and then showing that these terms are exactly zero. In [7], this property can also be verified directly on most examples (double slit, Aharonov-Bohm, potential well, harmonic oscillator, tunneling, EPR, QED), as well as in the derivations of the Pauli, Dirac, and Maxwell equations. For more general nonlinear actions, a time rescaling may be required to guarantee this space independence along stationary paths. In the hydrogen atom example, this time rescaling can be computed in closed form. In contrast to the general wave of the Madelung solution [9] Lemma 3.1 of [7] is defined first for a propagator, and a general wave is then constructed in a second step. Recall that a propagator is a specific quantum wave, which is initialized at $t=0$ with a Dirac impulse at a given initial position or momentum. In turn, a general wave is constructed in a second step by superposing a distribution of initial conditions using the propagator. This key difference is why the Bohm-like quantum potential terms disappear in the construction [7] (specifically, in the first step) while the Bohm potential in the Madelung analysis does not. This fundamental difference is also consistent with the fact that the wave construction in [7] extends naturally to relativistic contexts, while Bohmian non-locality notoriously prevents such extensions. Keywords - Response to arXiv:2605.02621, in relation to rspa.2025.0413

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

On the Stability of the Jacobian Matrix in Deep Neural Networks

arXiv:2506.08764v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep neural networks are known to suffer from exploding or vanishing gradients as depth increases, a phenomenon closely tied to the spectral behavior of the input-output Jacobian. Prior work has identified critical initialization schemes that ensure Jacobian stability, but these analyses are typically restricted to fully connected networks with i.i.d. weights. In this work, we go significantly beyond these limitations: we establish a general stability theorem for deep neural networks that accommodates sparsity (such as that introduced by pruning) and non-i.i.d., weakly correlated weights (e.g. induced by training). Our results rely on recent advances in random matrix theory, and provide rigorous guarantees for spectral stability in a much broader class of network models. This extends the theoretical foundation for initialization schemes in modern neural networks with structured and dependent randomness.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Leave-One-Out-, Bootstrap- and Cross-Conformal Anomaly Detectors

arXiv:2402.16388v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The need for uncertainty quantification in anomaly detection systems has become increasingly important. In this context, effectively controlling Type I error rates without inflating Type II error rates in these systems can build trust and reduce costs associated with false discoveries. The field of conformal anomaly detection emerges as a promising approach for providing respective statistical and finite-sample validity guarantees through model calibration. However, reliance on calibration data imposes practical limitations, especially in low-data regimes. In this work, we formally define and evaluate leave-one-out-, bootstrap-, and cross-conformal methods for conformal anomaly detection, building on methods from the field of conformal prediction. Looking beyond the classical split-conformal approach, we show that derived methods for calculating resampling-conformal $p$-values offer a practical compromise between the data efficiency of full-conformal (transductive) approaches and the computational efficiency of split-conformal (inductive) methods. We validate derived methods and quantify their improvements for a range of one-class classifiers and datasets.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Learning Fair Pareto-Optimal Policies in Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning

arXiv:2606.18111v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Fairness is an important aspect of decision-making in multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL), where policies must ensure both optimality and equity across multiple, potentially conflicting objectives. While single-policy MORL methods can learn fair policies for fixed user preferences using welfare functions such as the generalized Gini welfare function (GGF), they fail to provide the diverse set of policies necessary for dynamic or unknown user preferences. To address this limitation, we formalize the fair optimization problem in multi-policy MORL, where the goal is to learn a set of Pareto-optimal policies that ensure fairness across all possible user preferences. Our key technical contributions are threefold: (1) We show that for concave, piecewise-linear welfare functions (e.g., GGF), fair policies remain in the convex coverage set (CCS), which is an approximated Pareto front for linear scalarization. (2) We demonstrate that non-stationary policies, augmented with accrued reward histories, and stochastic policies improve fairness by dynamically adapting to historical inequities. (3) We propose three novel algorithms, which include integrating GGF with multi-policy multi-objective Q-Learning (MOQL), state-augmented multi-policy MOQL for learning non-statoinary policies, and its novel extension for learning stochastic policies. We evaluate our algorithms across various domains and compare our methods against the state-of-the-art MORL baselines. The empirical results show that our methods learn a set of fair policies that accommodate different user preferences.

15.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-18

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark

Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score. We introduce ForecastBench-Sim, a simulated-world forecasting benchmark built on game rollouts from Freeciv, a turn-based strategy game modelled on the Civilization series. Forecasters receive a fixed world report (a structured snapshot of the current game state) and answer questions about hidden future states; the benchmark then continues the simulation and scores forecasts. Because the world is simulated, the same setup can generate continuous or binary forecasting questions at arbitrary time horizons, paired intervention worlds for conditional or causal questions, and resolved examples of rare or disruptive outcomes. We describe the benchmark pipeline, question families, scoring protocol, and release artifacts, and report validation slices from model evaluations and an anonymized human pilot. ForecastBench-Sim is intended to complement real-world forecasting benchmarks by providing controlled, immediately resolvable tasks for studying probabilistic reasoning under dynamic world states.

16.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

Posterior Continuation with Noise-Conditioned Frequency Exposure for Diffusion Inverse Problems

Diffusion posterior sampling solves inverse problems by combining a pretrained diffusion prior with measurement-consistency guidance. However, full-band guidance can be unreliable at high noise levels, where clean estimates contain score-induced errors and high-frequency measurement directions are weakly identifiable. We argue that posterior guidance should expose measurement frequencies according to the instantaneous diffusion noise level. Based on this principle, we propose a posterior continuation framework that constructs a family of intermediate posteriors whose likelihood emphasizes currently reliable frequency bands and gradually returns to full-band consistency. We instantiate this framework with a stabilized sampler that combines a diffusion predictor, frequency-limited likelihood refinement, and a Haar-domain commitment rule that commits reliable coarse corrections while deferring weakly identifiable details. Across super-resolution, inpainting, and deblurring, our method achieves competitive-to-state-of-the-art restoration performance, including up to 5 dB PSNR improvement on motion deblurring over strong baselines in evaluations on FFHQ and ImageNet.

17.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

PhaseWin: An Efficient Search Algorithm for Faithful Visual Attribution

Visual attribution is a fundamental tool for interpreting modern vision and vision-language models, particularly when their decisions must be inspected, diagnosed, or audited. Its goal is to explain how a model's decision depends on local regions of the visual input, typically by assigning an importance ordering over candidate image regions. Given an image partitioned into $n$ regions, faithful attribution can be cast as an ordered subset-search problem, in which progressively inserting the selected regions should recover the target model response as early as possible. Exhaustive search over region subsets incurs exponential cost, while the widely used greedy search still requires a quadratic number of model evaluations, because every selection step rescores all remaining candidates. We propose PhaseWin, an efficient subset-search algorithm for faithful visual attribution. PhaseWin reorganizes greedy region selection into a phased window-search procedure: rather than re-evaluating the full candidate set at every step, it alternates between global candidate screening, adaptive pruning, and localized window refinement, while preserving the essential region-ranking behavior of greedy search. We analyze PhaseWin under monotone evidence-accumulation conditions and show that, under feature-level structural assumptions, it attains controllable linear evaluation complexity together with near-greedy faithfulness guarantees. Extensive experiments on image classification, object detection, visual grounding, and image captioning show that, among all compared attribution methods, PhaseWin reaches high faithfulness with the fewest forward passes, empirically realizing the predicted reduction from $O(n^2)$ to $O(n)$. The code is available at https://github.com/Qihuai27/phasewin-va.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

SPHINX: First Explain, Then Explore

Generating adversarial driving scenarios is critical for evaluating and improving autonomous vehicle decision-making systems in simulation. Recent approaches, such as ChatScene and LLM-Attacker, rely primarily on the prior knowledge of Large Language Models and Vision-Language Models to generate driving scenarios procedurally. We argue that adversarial scenes should be generated based on the failure diagnosis (e.g., indecisiveness, multi-frame inconsistency) of the driving policy to specifically address the policy's weaknesses instead of relying on prior assumptions. In this paper, we propose SPHINX, a closed-loop framework for adversarial scenario synthesis guided by a simple principle: first explain, then explore. Beyond blindly exploring the scenario space, SPHINX leverages explainable artificial intelligence methods to analyze the policy, identifying key visual concepts and their influence on policy outputs, and the uncertainty of the decisions. Given the interpretable evidence extracted from the policy's own decision process, we use a vision language model to rationalize and criticize failure modes of the current policy. These critics are then used to generate targeted adversarial scenarios for policy retraining and improvement. We demonstrate that SPHINX can highlight an interpretable account of policy failures while other adversarial scene generation cannot. Across the evaluated benchmarks and test suites, SPHINX can be applied to diverse state-of-the-art autonomous vehicle architectures and yields consistent robustness improvements over existing scenario-generation methods.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Bi-Anchor Interpolation Solver for Accelerating Generative Modeling

arXiv:2601.21542v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Flow Matching (FM) models have emerged as a leading paradigm for high-fidelity synthesis. However, their reliance on iterative Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) solving creates a significant latency bottleneck. Existing solutions face a dichotomy: training-free solvers suffer from significant performance degradation at low Neural Function Evaluations (NFEs), while training-based one- or few-steps generation methods incur prohibitive training costs and lack plug-and-play versatility. To bridge this gap, we propose the Bi-Anchor Interpolation Solver (BA-solver). BA-solver retains the versatility of standard training-free solvers while achieving significant acceleration by introducing a lightweight SideNet (1-2% backbone size) alongside the frozen backbone. Specifically, our method is founded on two synergistic components: 1) Bidirectional Temporal Perception, where the SideNet learns to approximate both future and historical velocities without retraining the heavy backbone; and 2) Bi-Anchor Velocity Integration, which utilizes the SideNet with two anchor velocities to efficiently approximate intermediate velocities for batched high-order integration. By utilizing the backbone to establish high-precision ``anchors'' and the SideNet to densify the trajectory, BA-solver enables large interval sizes with minimized error. Empirical results on ImageNet-256^2 demonstrate that BA-solver achieves generation quality comparable to 100+ NFEs Euler solver in just 10 NFEs and maintains high fidelity in as few as 5 NFEs, incurring negligible training costs. Furthermore, BA-solver ensures seamless integration with existing generative pipelines, facilitating downstream tasks such as image editing.

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Stochastic Adaptive Gradient Descent Without Descent

arXiv:2509.14969v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce a new adaptive step-size strategy for convex optimization with stochastic gradient that exploits the local geometry of the objective function only by means of a first-order stochastic oracle and without any hyper-parameter tuning. The method comes from a theoretically-grounded adaptation of the Adaptive Gradient Descent Without Descent method to the stochastic setting. We prove the convergence of stochastic gradient descent with our step-size under various assumptions, and we show that it empirically competes against tuned baselines.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Is My Vision-Language Data in Your AI? Membership Inference Test (MINT) Demo 2

We present the Membership Inference Test (MINT) Demo 2, a framework designed to improve transparency in machine learning training processes. MINT is a technique for experimentally determining whether specific data were used during machine learning model training. We establish the theoretical framework and propose multiple architectures for MINT depending on the amount of information known about the models that are being audited. Experimental results using a popular face recognition model, 4 state-of-the-art LLMs, and multiple, diverse, and large-scale public image and text databases achieve promising accuracy levels in the detection of training data of up to 90%. Building on these results, we introduce a comprehensive web platform1 that expands these capabilities to image and text modalities. The platform integrates a diverse technological stack, including MINT, aMINT, and gMINT, allowing users to audit a wide range of models. This demonstrator aims to promote AI transparency and provides a practical tool to foster compliance with emerging AI regulations.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Longitudinal monitoring exposes correlated temporal protein variations in the female plasma proteome

The plasma proteome is a valuable resource for assessment of the physiological state of the donor. Containing hundreds of different proteins of variable concentrations, it displays substantial inter-donor differences in individual protein levels, making each plasma proteome highly donor-specific. Less is known about intra-donor variability in the plasma proteome over time, although such variations may even be more indicative of a changing physiological state. Here we assessed data obtained from the TIMES cohort, comprising 51 apparently healthy participants monitored monthly over 12 months, focusing especially on temporal variations in blood protein levels. Most strikingly, we observed that several women in this cohort revealed strongly correlated temporal variations in their plasma proteome, including most notably PZP, SHBG, FETUB, AGT, SERPINA6, SERPINA7, CP, APOL1 and KNG1, with levels sometimes fluctuating by more than 20-fold. In contrast, such variations were absent in men. Some of the fluctuating proteins have been known to be hormone-regulated (e.g., PZP, SHBG), but for others this was not yet fully clear. Through the tight co-variation observed for these proteins in the plasma proteome of women, we can conclude that all these proteins are similarly hormone regulated. The findings reported here not only corroborate previous studies showing estrogen-dependent regulation of several plasma proteins, but also extend this category to include also CP, APOL1, and KNG1. As these latter have been often proposed as candidate biomarkers, they should be validated in sex-balanced cohorts and interpreted with caution, especially in large-scale plasma proteomics studies wherein often only one or a few sampling time points are measured per donor.

23.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

LLM-Powered Virtual Population for Demand Simulation and Pricing

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

24.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-22

Will AI spark a scientific renaissance — or a diffuse monoculture?

作者:

Artificial intelligence’s ability to enrich science will depend not only on model capability, but also on whether researchers, reviewers and funders reward originality over speed. Artificial intelligence’s ability to enrich science will depend not only on model capability, but also on whether researchers, reviewers and funders reward originality over speed.

25.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Hard to Halt: Automation Bias in Agent-Driven Sequencing Prior Authorization Workflows

Purpose: Prior authorization (PA) for exome or genome sequencing is a time-consuming process that impedes timely rare disease diagnosis. Large language model-based browser agents offer potential for automating these workflows, but their clinical reliability remain uncharacterized. Methods: We developed a sandbox compromising a simulated ES/GS PA submission payer portal and a synthetic EHR containing 836 patient records spanning compliant profiles and deficient profiles with different types of issues. Gemini 3 Pro, Gemini 3 Flash, and Claude Opus 4.5 were evaluated on task completion rate, form completion accuracy, and appropriate withholding for deficient profiles. Results: Larger models achieved much higher task completion rates (Gemini 3 Pro 95.45%, Claude Opus 4.5 93.67%) compared to Gemini 3 Flash (56.05%), but nearly universally failed to withhold submission for deficient profiles whereas Gemini 3 Flash ironically demonstrated superior withholding performance (17.33%). In a non-agentic setting, Gemini 3 Pro correctly identified 91% of the issues in deficient profiles, indicating that withholding failure is attributable to the browser interaction rather than the model's reasoning limitations. Conclusion: Current LLM-based browser agents exhibit a systematic bias towards form submission that poses risks in PA workflows. A modular, multi-agent architecture with human supervision is necessary for a safe clinical deployment.