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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Multi-Field Hybrid Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Maritime Accident Root Cause Analysis

arXiv:2606.13249v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Maritime accident adjudication reports contain critical tribunal findings for root cause analysis (RCA), yet retrieving relevant precedents and drafting consistent reports from decades of records remains labor-intensive. This paper proposes a multi-field hybrid retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework for automated maritime RCA, utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 13,329 Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST) reports (1971-2025). We transform raw adjudications into a structured knowledge base of "incident cards", indexing three distinct fields-Summary, Causes, and Disposition-alongside a hierarchical L1/L2 cause taxonomy. Our retrieval strategy employs a field-aware hybrid approach, fusing sparse and dense rankings via Reciprocal Rank Fusion (RRF). Given the lack of large-scale expert relevance labels, we evaluate retrieval performance using ceiling-normalized recall and nDCG based on a metadata-derived proxy relevance score. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed retrieval significantly outperforms baseline methods, improving NormRecall@100 from 0.18 to 0.55. Furthermore, grounding the generator on the retrieved precedents enhances RCA generation quality over an LLM-only baseline, increasing the LLM-as-a-judge score from 3.34 to 3.72. These findings suggest that field-aware RAG can substantially streamline maritime safety investigation workflows by enabling faster precedent search and more consistent, evidence-based RCA drafting.

02.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-18

PEFT-MedSAM: Efficient Fine-Tuning of Medical Foundation Models for Explainable Skin Lesion Segmentation

Automated segmentation of skin lesions using deep learning models for dermoscopic images can be very helpful in finding melanomas earlier than they would normally be detected. However, most deep learning methods available do not perform well. The aim of this paper is to present a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method called PEFT-MedSAM for adapting the Medical Segment Anything Model (MedSAM) to automatically segment dermoscopic skin lesions. The PEFT-MedSAM method uses only the lightweight mask decoder for training the model while keeping the pre-trained image encoder and prompt encoder frozen. The experiments performed on the ISIC 2018 benchmark dataset shows that PEFT-MedSAM obtains a dice coefficient of .9411 and an intersection over union value of .8918 when compared to both a fully trained U-Net baseline (.8715 dice coefficient) and zero-shot MedSAM inference (.8997 dice coefficient). The external validation of the model using PH2 dataset shows .9467 dice coefficient with +/- .0310 standard deviation. Supportive evidence for these claims include a p-value less than .0001 for Wilcoxon signed rank tests comparing the two datasets and bootstrap-estimated 95% confidence intervals of [.9364,.9447] that represent the estimated range of possible values for the average dice coefficient obtained by repeating the test. To increase clinical trustworthiness, we used Grad-CAM explainability along with a pointing game based evaluation methodology to evaluate the CNN baseline model on the validation set. The results showed that we had an accuracy rate of 98.27% on the validation set of 519 images and confirmed that the model classified regions containing skin lesions.

03.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

daVinci-kernel: Co-Evolving Skill Selection, Summarization, and Utilization via RL for GPU Kernel Optimization

GPU kernel optimization represents a paradigm where functional correctness is assumed and execution efficiency is the objective. We present daVinci-kernel, a reinforcement learning framework that couples skill discovery with skill exploitation through a dynamically evolving skill library. daVinci-kernel jointly trains three agents sharing one LLM backbone: a Skill Selection Agent that retrieves relevant techniques via BM25 and LLM reranking, a Policy Agent that generates multi-turn CUDA/Triton kernels conditioned on selected skills, and a Skill Summary Agent that distills successful rollouts into reusable skills. Candidate skills are added only after execution-based verification confirms reproducible speedups. All three agents share a single LLM backbone, are initialized via a structured SFT cold start on diversity-filtered data, and are then jointly optimized end-to-end with multi-turn REINFORCE and per-agent advantage estimation. On KernelBench, daVinci-kernel-14B achieves 37.2%, 70.6%, and 32.2% on Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 under the Fast$_1$ threshold, outperforming the strongest prior RL-trained model, Dr.Kernel-14B.

04.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Beyond Defensive Reporting: Machine Learning for Active Anti-Money Laundering Control in Insurance

arXiv:2606.16663v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Money laundering through insurance claims poses a threat to insurers both through fraudulent payouts and reputational and regulatory risk. Despite this, little research has examined how such laundering can be prevented. This paper examines whether machine learning can help insurers flag suspicious claims before payout, shifting the focus from passive reporting to active prevention. Using production data from a major Norwegian insurer, we train gradient-boosted decision tree models to detect claims later reported to authorities for suspected money laundering. Because fraud and laundering may share behavioural patterns, we also examine whether insurance fraud labels can serve as an auxiliary training signal. We compare different learning setups using the Budget-Weighted Capture Rate, a metric introduced in this paper to measure how many laundering cases are captured when only a small share of claims can be manually reviewed. The results show that incorporating fraud-related investigation labels substantially improves laundering detection. The best-performing model captures nearly two-thirds of laundering cases within the top-ranked 2 to 6 percent of claims selected for investigation. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study of machine learning for money laundering detection in insurance claims.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Hy-Embodied-0.5-VLA: From Vision-Language-Action Models to a Real-World Robot Learning Stack

arXiv:2606.14409v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this report, we present Hy-Embodied-0.5-VLA, abbreviated as HyVLA-0.5, an end-to-end system that spans the full robot learning stack: data collection, model design, continued pre-training and supervised fine-tuning, RL post-training, and real-world deployment. Each component serves a distinct role in this stack.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Variational Graph Neural Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Inverse Problems

arXiv:2603.29515v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The increasingly wide use of deep machine learning techniques in computational mechanics has significantly accelerated simulations of problems that were considered unapproachable just a few years ago. However, in critical applications such as Digital Twins for engineering or medicine, fast responses are not enough; reliable results must also be provided. In certain cases, traditional deterministic methods may not be optimal as they do not provide a measure of confidence in their predictions or results, especially in inverse problems where the solution may not be unique or the initial data may not be entirely reliable due to the presence of noise, for instance. Classic deep neural networks also lack a clear measure to quantify the uncertainty of their predictions. In this work, we present a variational graph neural network (VGNN) architecture that integrates variational layers into its architecture to model the probability distribution of weights. Unlike computationally expensive full Bayesian networks, our approach strategically introduces variational layers exclusively in the decoder, allowing us to estimate cognitive uncertainty and statistical uncertainty at a relatively lower cost. In this work, we validate the proposed methodology in two cases of solid mechanics: the identification of the value of the elastic modulus with nonlinear distribution in a 2D elastic problem and the location and quantification of the loads applied to a 3D hyperelastic beam, in both cases using only the displacement field of each test as input data. The results show that the model not only recovers the physical parameters with high precision, but also provides confidence intervals consistent with the physics of the problem, as well as being able to locate the position of the applied load and estimate its value, giving a confidence interval for that experiment.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Neural ARFIMA model for forecasting BRIC exchange rates with long memory

arXiv:2509.06697v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Exchange rate forecasting remains a challenging problem, particularly for emerging economies, where the observed time series exhibit pronounced long-memory dependence, nonlinear dynamics, and sensitivity to macro-financial drivers. Classical models such as ARFIMA capture long-range persistence but fail to adequately represent nonlinear relationships, while modern machine learning approaches often neglect the underlying long-memory structure in macroeconomic series. To address this gap, we propose a Neural AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (NARFIMA) model that integrates ARFIMA-based long-memory modeling with neural networks for nonlinear function approximation, while incorporating exogenous macroeconomic and uncertainty indicators. The framework provides a unified approach for capturing persistence, nonlinear dynamics, and external shocks. We establish asymptotic stationarity of the NARFIMA process and develop conformal prediction intervals for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Empirical results for BRIC exchange rates show that NARFIMA consistently outperforms a broad range of forecasting benchmarks across multiple horizons, underscoring the importance of explicitly modeling long-memory dependence in exchange rate dynamics. The `narfima' R package provides an implementation of our approach.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Architectural Wisdom: A Framework for Governing Optimization in AI Systems

arXiv:2606.16319v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern AI systems exhibit structural failures that capability scaling alone does not reliably fix: they optimize under-specified objectives with no architectural mechanism to question whether the objective should be optimized at all. Engagement maximization can amplify harmful pathways; tool-using agents can commit irreversible actions; preference-trained language models can become sycophantic. We argue that this failure is a wisdom problem, not an intelligence problem. We use "wisdom" in a deliberately architectural sense, not as a claim about virtue, consciousness, or moral omniscience. Intelligence accepts a goal and optimizes within it; wisdom interrogates whether the goal should be optimized at all. The two are separable architectural properties. We propose architectural wisdom as a corrigible objective-governance layer above the optimization substrate. The layer makes three structural commitments explicit and nondegenerate before any action: temporal horizon, relational boundary, and irreversibility. It is realized by four components (Structural Utility Transform, Moral Admissibility Interface, Arbitration and Escalation Controller, Value Revision Channel) that compute a six-coordinate wisdom tuple over horizon, relational coverage, irreversibility, admissibility, value revision, and auditability. We motivate the architecture by eight cases drawn from contemporary AI failures, secular wisdom traditions, and hard ethical situations, and defend the distinction against the intelligence-completeness thesis using goal-questioning over goal-taking, Bostrom's orthogonality, structural separation in our exemplar cases, and persistent failure modes despite capability scaling. The framework is the conceptual contract for a larger architecture whose formal specifications and empirical validation are developed in subsequent work.

09.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

High-Dimensional Random Projection for Activation Steering in Language Models

arXiv:2606.15092v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Activation steering has emerged as a key methodology for controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs). Existing difference-in-means based methods, however, are fundamentally limited: they capture only mean differences between class activations and fail to recover discriminative signals that naturally exist in the nonlinear feature subspace under the superposition hypothesis. Motivated by that, we propose High-Dimensional Random-projection for Activation Steering (HiDRA), a training-free approach that integrates seamlessly with existing activation steering methods. By performing activation addition in the projected high-dimensional space, HiDRA can provably capture a better discriminative structure beyond the reach of linear methods. Experiments across diverse LLM families and benchmarks demonstrate that HiDRA consistently outperforms baseline counterparts, achieving stronger behavioral control without significant computational overhead.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

arXiv:2606.15058v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-11

Random Grover Search

arXiv:2606.11759v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Grover's algorithm achieves a quadratic speedup for unstructured search given a global oracle for the target set. In many applications, however, the target set is specified as the intersection of multiple constraint sets. Constructing a global oracle for the intersection can be costly, whereas the individual constraint oracles are often much simpler to implement. We study a randomized Grover search algorithm that directly uses these constraint oracles. At each iteration, one of the corresponding Grover operators is selected at random. For the two-operator case with uniform sampling, we prove that the success probability approaches one after \[ \Theta \left(\frac\pi4\sqrt{\frac{N}{r}}\right) \] iterations, where $r$ is the size of the intersection. Thus, the algorithm achieves the same asymptotic query complexity as standard Grover search but without requiring a global oracle. We then generalize the analysis to arbitrary sampling distributions and an arbitrary number of Grover operators through an auxiliary operator that approximates the expected Grover evolution, while retaining the same asymptotic complexity. We further show that highly biased sampling distributions can still achieve near-unit success probability, enabling cheaper Grover operators to be used more frequently. Finally, we prove asymptotic optimality and support the theoretical results with numerical simulations.

12.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Drivers, Receivers, and Dynamic Linkages: The Directed Structure of SDG Interdependence, 2000–2024

arXiv:2601.20875v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly. We map the directed interdependence structure of all seventeen goals using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. The goal series are persistent, trending, and cross-sectionally dependent, so we apply two estimators matched to this regime: a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, run on first-differenced series, to recover the directed interaction network, and panel local projections with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to measure the dynamic magnitude of 31 theory-derived indicator linkages. Of 272 directed goal pairs, 84 linkages survive false-discovery control (40 synergies, 44 trade-offs; network density 0.31). Synergies and trade-offs occur at comparable strength, so no single goal behaves as a universal accelerator, and the goal-level hierarchy itself is fragile. Driver-receiver rankings correlate weakly across lag orders and centrality metrics, and under a country bootstrap only two roles are distinguishable from zero: peace and strong institutions as the clearest net receiver, and poverty reduction as the most probable effect-size-weighted driver. The supported linkages are dynamic, accruing over four to five years: sanitation and poverty improvements are the strongest predictors of lower child mortality, and the education-child-health association is corroborated in independent World Development Indicators data across 183 countries. These results caution against rankings-based accelerator policy and support adaptive portfolios built on supported, time-lagged linkages monitored through constituent indicators.

13.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-17

Optical fibre gripper for high-performance 3D micromanipulation

作者:

Optical tweezers offer precise, non-contact control, but operate in a limited force regime and impose strict requirements on the characteristics of the targets as well as the environmental conditions1–4. Millimetre-scale mechanical tweezers can offer higher gripping force but are not suitable for precise manipulations5–11. Integrating microgrippers directly at the optical fibres provides a new approach for precise micromanipulation. However, existing fibre-integrated tweezers still face challenges in achieving high-performance manipulation of micro-objects (for example, single cells) within narrow spaces, mainly due to simplified architectures, constrained designs and millimetre-scale footprints12–14. Here we report a three-dimensional (3D) optical fibre gripper (OFG), which is fabricated by two-step, two-photon polymerization. The OFG consists of rigid photoresist microclaws and soft thermoresponsive hydrogel muscle doped with silver nanoparticles, and its size is only 38 × 38 × 61 μm3. The OFG exhibits a force-to-mass ratio of about 340 μN mg−1, outperforming previously reported fibre-integrated tweezers by one to two orders of magnitude. The OFG can manipulate opaque particles, irregular micromechanical components and diverse single-cell types. We further demonstrated its potential in 3D microassembly of complex microdevices (bearings, shafts and gearboxes) and biomimetic sampling in the narrow environment (<300 μm). These results position the OFG as a compact fibre-tip manipulator for 3D micromanipulation, offering reversible and tunable gripping in an intermediate force regime between optical field trapping and millimetre-scale mechanical tweezers. A miniature three-dimensional optical fibre gripper enables powerful, precise micromanipulation of particles and single cells in confined spaces, bridging the gap between optical and mechanical tweezers.

14.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-16

Detect Before You Leap: Mirage Detection in Vision-Language Models

Vision-language models (VLMs) can produce confident visual answers even when the required visual evidence is missing, blank, or unrelated to the question. This failure mode, recently described as mirage (mirage2026), is especially concerning in medical and document VQA, where a plausible but visually ungrounded answer may be mistaken for image-based evidence. We study the complementary problem of pre-release mirage detection: given an image-question pair, determine whether the VLM should answer or abstain before generation. To that end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Text-Conditioned Layer-wise Internal Alignment (TC-LIA) method that probes patch-token representations across the layers of a CLIP ViT-H/14 vision encoder. The key idea is to project layer-wise image patch tokens into the final CLIP embedding space and measure their similarity with the question embedding, thereby tracking whether question-relevant visual evidence emerges across vision layers. TC-LIA summarizes this alignment trajectory using final image-text cosine similarity, late-layer top-k patch-text alignment, early-to-late gain, and layer-wise slope. These features are combined with pixel-statistic based blank/noise detection, zero-shot domain routing, and structured VLM self-assessment in an ensemble. Across five VQA domains with related, unrelated-real, and blank/noise inputs, and across twelve VLM backbones, Qwen2.5-VL-32B achieves the highest three-class detection accuracy of 94.7% with a 3.0% mirage rate, while Qwen2.5-VL-72B achieves 94.6% accuracy with a lower 2.8% mirage rate. Baseline mirage rates span 21.7-66.6%.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Sensorimotor World Models: Perception for Action via Inverse Dynamics

arXiv:2606.20104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Perception for action suggests that representations of the world should be shaped not by visual fidelity alone, but by their relevance for actions. At the same time, latent JEPA-style world models advocate learning compact predictive states from high-dimensional observations to facilitate the prediction of future states, but end-to-end training of these models is nontrivial because representations may collapse if our only goal is to construct a latent state that is easy to predict. We introduce a sensorimotor world model (SMWM): a latent world model trained end-to-end with inverse dynamics regularization. This single regularizer addresses both issues: it prevents representation collapse and induces action-aligned representations. By forcing latent states to preserve information about the action underlying a transition, it biases the model toward the controllable degrees of freedom of the environment while discarding uncontrollable distractors. This yields stable latent world models trained from offline, reward-free trajectories, without frozen encoders, exponential moving averages, or complex latent regularizers. Empirically, SMWM learns compact, interpretable latent spaces and enables competitive planning performance across simple 2D and 3D control tasks.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-17

LLM-Driven Extraction of NI-RADS and Imaging Tumor Characteristics to Enhance Oropharyngeal Cancer Survivorship Surveillance

Abstract Purpose Radiologic surveillance is essential for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) survivors, guiding recurrence detection and follow-up strategies. The Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System provides a standardized framework for post-treatment risk reporting at both the primary tumor site (pNI-RADs) and cervical lymph nodes (nNI-RADS). Comprehensive surveillance additionally requires assessment of disease status, including the primary tumor, nodal involvement, and distant metastases. These clinical results are often embedded as unstructured data within free-text radiology reports. We hypothesized that a large language model (LLM) can reliably extract NI-RADS score criteria and summarize key imaging features from unstructured radiology text, achieving high concordance with expert review. Methods Previously untreated OPC patients who received definitive cancer therapy were identified. Eligible imaging reports included post-treatment head and neck CT, MRI, or FDG PET/CT scans containing narrative and impression text. Examinations lacking narrative or impression text, containing pre-existing NI-RADS annotations, or involving non-surveillance imaging modalities were excluded. A total of 200 reports were randomly selected from 7,076 eligible examinations for manual abstraction using a three-reviewer consensus framework to establish a reference dataset. Using the Palantir Foundry Pipeline Builder, a GPT-5-based LLM was deployed to extract pNI-RADS and nNI-RADS scores, and key imaging features of disease status from these reports. Performance was evaluated using exact agreement and F1-based metrics. Results Agreement for no evidence of disease (score of 1) was 93.3% (126/135; F1 = 0.94) and 90.3% (130/144; F1 = 0.93) for pNI-RADS and nNI-RADS, respectively. For NI-RADS [≥]2, exact category agreement was 73.1% (38/52; macro-F1 = 0.75) for pNI-RADS and 64.3% (27/42; macro-F1 = 0.56) for nNI-RADS. Quadratic weighted {kappa} was 0.81 and 0.59, respectively. For post-treatment disease surveillance variables, agreement was 94.9% (149/157; F1 = 0.87) for primary tumor presence, 89.1% (164/184; F1 = 0.87) for nodal disease presence, and 94.7% (126/133; F1 = 0.70) for distant metastasis detection. Specificity was high across disease-status variables (0.95-0.99), with negative predictive values of 0.95 for primary tumor, 0.87 for nodal disease, and 0.99 for distant metastasis. Conclusions Our LLM-based information retrieval and classification approach for radiographic treatment response from unstructured, multidimensional imaging reports achieved high performance for disease exclusion and moderate performance for detecting suspected residual and/or new disease. This pipeline supports scalable and standardized surveillance data capture for longitudinal monitoring, clinical analytics, and survivorship research in head and neck oncology.

17.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

CombEval: A Framework for Evaluating Combinatorial Counting in Large Language Models

We present CombEval, a dynamic benchmark for evaluating combinatorial counting in large language models. CombEval represents each problem as a typed Cofola specification over entities, combinatorial objects, object dependencies, and constraints, enabling controlled generation of natural-language counting problems with exact solver-verified answers. Unlike static collections, CombEval supports systematic variation of object type, entity scale, constraint count, and reasoning depth. We evaluate 11 LLMs under direct and code-augmented settings and find that models remain brittle on ordered objects, indistinguishable elements, relatively positional constraints, and nested object dependencies. Error analysis further identifies failures in constraint interpretation and counting principles. CombEval provides a diagnostic testbed for studying when and why LLMs fail at combinatorial reasoning. The code and generated benchmark suites are publicly available at \url{https://github.com/YuxuZhou-CN/combination-problem-generation}.

18.
Nature Medicine 2026-06-10

Brain Health for Economic Resilience: a data-driven framework for the brain-positive economic transition

Announced in this Comment and in collaboration with Nature Medicine is the convening of the Brain Health for Economic Resilience Commission, a global, transdisciplinary effort to define, measure and operationalize brain health and cognitive capacity as foundational drivers of economic resilience.

19.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-15

SMS: Symmetric Mediation Statistics for Powerful High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis

Background: Mediation analysis of high-dimensional features, particularly molecular-level omics features, provides important opportunities to uncover biological mechanisms underlying human health and disease. However, two central statistical challenges remain: testing the composite-null hypothesis and maintaining power when the exposure-mediator and mediator-outcome associations differ substantially in statistical significance. Existing methods typically rely on accurate estimation of the proportions of the three null types or on the maximum of the two association p-values, and may not always control the FDR well and may have limited power under imbalanced significance. Methods: We propose SMS, a new statistical framework based on symmetric mediation statistics. By exploiting symmetry, SMS calibrates the composite null distribution as a whole for FDR control. It also allows flexible combinations of the two association p-values, including the maximum, and then enables construction of an omnibus test. Moreover, it permits direct use of effect-size estimates, bypassing the need to compute p-values. Results: SMS controlled the FDR across a wide range of simulation scenarios while achieving a substantial sensitivity gain, often around 20 percentage points, over existing methods including HDMT, DACT, and DEI-B. Applications to a metabolomics dataset and a DNA methylation dataset further corroborated these findings. Notably, SMS discovered five plausible mediators in the metabolomics dataset that were missed by all existing methods considered.

20.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-16

Sharp One-Dimensional Sub-Gaussian Comparison in Convex Order

作者:

arXiv:2604.26819v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We prove that any random variable $X$ whose moment generating function is point-wise upper bounded by that of $ G \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1) $ must be dominated by $ G/\mathbb{E}[|G|] $ in convex order, meaning $ \mathbb{E}[f(X)] \le \mathbb{E}[f(G/\mathbb{E}[|G|])] $ for all convex $f$. This is sharp as witnessed by $ X \sim \mathrm{Unif}(\{-1,1\}) $ and $ f(x) = |x| $.

21.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-11

TRON: Tracing Rays to Orchestrate a Neural Renderer for 3D Gaussian Reconstructions

We introduce TRON, a rendering framework that combines 3D Gaussian ray tracing with neural rendering to enable realistic and controllable rendering of real-world 3D scenes under novel lighting, dynamic object motion, object insertion, and material editing. Prior approaches that rely solely on physically based rendering (PBR) of Gaussian representations struggle to achieve realistic relighting due to imperfections in reconstructed geometry, material estimates, and light transport estimation. At the same time, neural rendering methods often lack an explicit scene representation, limiting their ability to support interactive editing with fine-grained manipulation. TRON bridges these two paradigms. We use intrinsic decomposition priors from a learned inverse rendering model to regularize the material properties of a Gaussian field, and repurpose a ray tracer to provide radiometric guidance rather than final pixels. By treating this output as a structured 3D scaffold, we empower a lightweight neural renderer to bridge the domain gap between shading-model constrained estimates and photorealistic output. Our key insight is that the combination of explicit 3D knowledge with robust material priors provides speed and controllability, while neural rendering enables the synthesis of photorealistic images. To support real-world scenarios, we train our neural renderer with a multi-stage strategy consisting of large-scale pretraining and targeted fine-tuning on a newly constructed dataset of 2.1M rendered synthetic and real-world frames from 3D reconstructions. TRON outperforms Gaussian-based relighting methods in realism, and prior neural renderers in editability and speed. To the best of our knowledge, TRON is the first method to enable practical interactive applications in captured 3D environments, offering realistic appearance under dynamic geometric, lighting and material conditions.

22.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

A Dynamical Systems Perspective on the Analysis of Neural Networks

arXiv:2507.05164v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this chapter, we utilize dynamical systems to analyze several aspects of machine learning algorithms. As an expository contribution we demonstrate how to re-formulate a wide variety of challenges from deep neural networks, (stochastic) gradient descent, and related topics into dynamical statements. We also tackle three concrete challenges. First, we consider the process of information propagation through a neural network, i.e., we study the input-output map for different architectures. We explain the universal embedding property for augmented neural ODEs representing arbitrary functions of given regularity, the classification of multilayer perceptrons and neural ODEs in terms of suitable function classes, and the memory-dependence in neural delay equations. Second, we consider the training aspect of neural networks dynamically. We describe a dynamical systems perspective on gradient descent and study stability for overdetermined problems. We then extend this analysis to the overparameterized setting and describe the edge of stability phenomenon, also in the context of possible explanations for implicit bias. For stochastic gradient descent, we present stability results for the overparameterized setting via Lyapunov exponents of interpolation solutions. Third, we explain several results regarding mean-field limits of neural networks. We describe a result that extends existing techniques to heterogeneous neural networks involving graph limits via digraph measures. This shows how large classes of neural networks naturally fall within the framework of Kuramoto-type models on graphs and their large-graph limits. Finally, we point out that similar strategies to use dynamics to study explainable and reliable AI can also be applied to settings such as generative models or fundamental issues in gradient training methods, such as backpropagation or vanishing/exploding gradients.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Federated Causal Inference from Multi-Site Observational Data via Propensity Score Aggregation

arXiv:2505.17961v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data. Yet, in practice, data are often decentralized across multiple sites, making centralization infeasible due to privacy, logistical, or legal constraints. We address this problem by estimating the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) from decentralized observational data via a Federated Learning (FL) approach, allowing inference through the exchange of aggregate statistics rather than individual-level data. We propose a novel method to estimate propensity scores via a federated weighted average of local scores using Membership Weights (MW), defined as probabilities of site membership conditional on covariates. MW can be flexibly estimated with parametric or non-parametric classification models using standard FL algorithms. The resulting propensity scores are used to construct Federated Inverse Propensity Weighting (Fed-IPW) and Augmented IPW (Fed-AIPW) estimators. In contrast to meta-analysis methods, which fail when any site violates positivity, our approach exploits heterogeneity in treatment assignment across sites to improve overlap. We show that Fed-IPW and Fed-AIPW perform well under site-level heterogeneity in sample sizes, treatment mechanisms, and covariate distributions. Theoretical analysis and experiments on simulated and real-world data demonstrate clear advantages over meta-analysis and related approaches.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Gradient boosting for extremes: sampling theory and application to insurance

arXiv:2606.14268v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We develop a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting applied to the estimation of covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions in the context of Peaks-over-Threshold modeling. After an orthogonal reparametrization of the GP likelihood that diagonalizes its Fisher information matrix, we cast the estimation problem within the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework and derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator. Our analysis accounts for three distinct sources of error in the process: statistical fluctuations, the approximation bias inherent to the asymptotic nature of the GP model-controlled under second-order regular variation-and the approximation error associated with the finite number of boosting iterates, making explicit the resulting bias-variance trade-off. We illustrate the practical benefits of the reparametrization through simulations, showing that it significantly reduces gradient correlation during training and improves convergence stability. The methodology is applied to a medical malpractice insurance dataset from the Texas Department of Insurance, comprising over 18 000 closed claims. The gradient boosting approach yields a good fit for the tail of settlement cost distributions and reveals that the number of days to settlement is the dominant predictor of tail heaviness, consistent with earlier findings in the reserving literature.

25.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-17

TextMesh4D: Zero-shot Text-to-4D Mesh Generation

Large-scale, high-quality dynamic 3D (4D) assets are essential for learning physically grounded representations, but remain costly to capture and annotate at scale. This limits the viability of supervised 4D learning and motivates zero-shot text-to-4D generation leveraging pretrained diffusion priors. To model complex dynamics, prior methods typically adopt implicit 3D representations (e.g., NeRFs or 3DGS) for their deformation capacity. However, their implicit nature provides limited control over surface topology, which hinders high-fidelity geometry and makes temporally coherent surface reconstruction challenging. To address these limitations, we explore zero-shot text-to-4D mesh generation. However, a structural mismatch arises when combining diffusion-based guidance with topology-constrained meshes: the guidance is noisy and spatially inconsistent, while meshes impose severe topological constraints, making direct vertex-level deformation unstable. In this paper, we introduce TextMesh4D, the first zero-shot framework for text-to-4D that directly generates dynamic meshes by addressing the above challenge at two complementary levels. Geometrically, we shift deformation modeling from vertices to faces via a Jacobian Deformation Field (JDF), enabling topology-aware surface reconstruction through an integrability-enforcing integration formulation. Semantically, we propose a Local-Global Semantic Regularizer (LGSR) that preserves identity over time by jointly constraining local deformation plausibility and global shape consistency. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art temporal consistency, structural fidelity, and visual quality, while remaining efficient on a single 24GB GPU.