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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Runtime Skill Audit: Targeted Runtime Probing for Agent Skill Security

arXiv:2606.11671v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Agent skills let LLM agents reuse instructions, resources, tools, and workflows, but they also create a new place for malicious behavior to hide. A skill may look benign in its documentation or code while becoming harmful only when it is invoked with particular user requests, local assets, persistent state, or multi-step tool interactions. This makes purely static vetting brittle. We present Runtime Skill Audit (RSA), a dynamic analysis method that audits skills by asking what the skill-mediated agent actually does under targeted runtime conditions. Instead of testing every skill with the same generic tasks, RSA profiles risk-relevant interfaces, prepares the execution context needed to exercise them, and assigns security labels from the resulting trace evidence. We instantiate RSA on OpenClaw and evaluate it on 100 skills against representative static baselines. RSA achieves 90.0\% accuracy with an 88.0\% true positive rate and an 8.0\% false positive rate, improving accuracy by 13.0 percentage points over the best static baseline. Under self-evolving attacks, static detectors collapse after one or two rounds, while RSA continues to detect 19–20 out of 20 malicious skills across rounds.

02.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

FinSTaR: Towards Financial Reasoning with Time Series Reasoning Models

arXiv:2605.03460v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series (TS) reasoning models (TSRMs) have shown promising capabilities in general domains, yet they consistently fail in the financial domain, which exhibits unique characteristics. We propose a general 2 x 2 capability taxonomy for TSRMs by crossing 1) single-entity vs. multi-entity analysis with 2) assessment of the current state vs. prediction of future behavior. We instantiate this taxonomy in the financial domain-where the distinction between deterministic assessment and stochastic prediction is particularly critical-as ten financial reasoning tasks, forming the FinTSR-Bench benchmark based on S&P stocks. To this end, we propose FinSTaR (Financial Time Series Thinking and Reasoning), trained on FinTSR-Bench with distinct chain-of-thought (CoT) strategies tailored to each category. For assessment, which is deterministic (i.e., computable from observable data), we employ Compute-in-CoT, a programmatic CoT that enables models to derive answers directly from raw prices. For prediction, which is inherently stochastic (i.e., subject to unobservable factors), we adopt Scenario-Aware CoT, which generates diverse scenarios before making a judgment, mirroring how financial analysts reason under uncertainty. The proposed method achieves 78.9% average accuracy on FinTSR-Bench, substantially outperforming LLM and TSRM baselines. Furthermore, we show that the four capability categories are complementary and mutually reinforcing through joint training, and that Scenario-Aware CoT consistently improves prediction accuracy over standard CoT. Code is available at https://github.com/seunghan96/FinSTaR.

03.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

Rigidity of infinite exchangeable sequences with Gaussian marginals

arXiv:2606.18654v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study infinite exchangeable sequences with Gaussian one-dimensional marginals. We formulate the conjecture that joint Gaussianity of a single pair of coordinates forces the entire sequence to be a Gaussian process. Although this conjecture remains open, we prove that joint Gaussianity of the first four coordinates is sufficient. We also establish the corresponding two-point criterion under the additional assumption that the directing measure is almost surely infinitely divisible.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Correcting Sensor-Induced Distribution Drift with Wasserstein Adversarial Learning

arXiv:2606.18561v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The quality of recorded data depends on the stability of the sensor system that acquires it. Sensor motion and aging can degrade the performance and stability of downstream data-driven methods. We present a Wasserstein-GAN-inspired approach for unsupervised inference of physically interpretable transformation parameters that map a changed detector response distribution back to a nominal reference distribution. In contrast to standard generative modeling, the generator is used as a learnable calibration transformation whose trainable weights represent the sought parameters, while the critic provides a distributional distance signal via the Wasserstein objective. We validate the approach on a tracking-detector toy model with controlled layer shifts and demonstrate its application on high-granularity Geant4-simulated calorimeter data with cell-wise aging effects. The method recovers aging coefficients for individual cells with correlation to ground truth and improves agreement between calibrated and reference energy-sum distributions, while exhibiting the expected degradation at increasing channel-to-channel noise levels. These results indicate that adversarial distribution matching can serve as a data-driven component of calibration strategies in settings where direct labels for degradation parameters are unavailable.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-15

Shuttling Compiler for Trapped-Ion Quantum Computers Based on Large Language Models

arXiv:2512.18021v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present the first shuttling compiler based on large language models (LLMs) for trapped-ion quantum computers, where qubits are shuttled between segments for gate execution and qubit storage. We fine-tune pre-trained LLMs on examples from linear and branched one-dimensional shuttling architectures. Thus, we obtain a layout-independent compilation strategy that learns the required shuttling operations directly from data. Using benchmark circuits with up to 16 qubits, such fine-tuned LLMs can now generate valid schedules for shuttling architectures. Notably, we also obtain a valid schedule for a previously unseen four-way junction layout. This demonstrates that trained LLMs can generalize to layouts not encountered during training. For various architectures, LLM-based schedules improve upon state-of-the-art baseline compiler results, reducing the shuttling effort by up to 15%.

06.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Quantitative insights into the role of phages and plasmids in the persistence of nontuberculous mycobacteria in chloraminated drinking water

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic pathogens that persist in chloraminated drinking water systems, yet the roles of phages and plasmids in their persistence remain largely unexplored. Using genome-resolved and quantitative metagenomics, we characterized NTM, phages, prophages, and plasmids in a chloraminated building plumbing system. Bacterial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) and viral operational taxonomic units (vOTUs) were quantified at mean concentrations of 8.41 * 10^7 and 8.00 * 10^8 copies/L, respectively, including seven NTM MAGs at a mean total concentration of 4.01 * 10^5 copies/L. NTM concentrations were highest at the site with the lowest bacterial and viral diversity. Predicted NTM-infecting virus concentrations were inversely related to NTM concentrations across sites, suggesting complex phage-host dynamics that warrant direct experimental investigation. NTM, putative phages, prophages, and plasmids encoded functions related to disinfectant tolerance, stress response, metal resistance, and secretion. These findings identify phage interactions, prophages, and plasmids as overlooked genomic and ecological dimensions of NTM persistence in engineered water systems.

07.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Combining Retrieval-Augmented Text Generation with LLMs for Reading Content Recommendations

arXiv:2606.14817v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work presents the design, implementation, and evaluation of a system for generating personalized reading content using Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). The proposed architecture consists of four modules: Input, RAG, Generation, and Judging and enables users to specify both a question and a target reading content complexity. RAG is employed to retrieve relevant information from the Internet, enriching and grounding the content produced by three modern LLMs: Meta LLaMA 4 Scout, LLaMA 3.1 8B Instant, and Google Gemma2 9B. Reading materials are generated using three prompting strategies (Chain-of-Thought, zero-shot, and few-shot), and the LLM-as-a-Judge module automatically evaluates answer quality and alignment with the desired readability level. Experimental results show that RAG consistently improves system performance across all models and prompting techniques, increasing relevance and particularly groundedness by up to 26-35 percentage points. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the RAG-augmented architecture effectively produces reading content tailored to user queries and desired textual complexity.

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Automated ultrasound doppler angle estimation using deep learning

arXiv:2508.04243v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Angle estimation is an important step in the Doppler ultrasound clinical workflow to measure blood velocity. It is widely recognized that incorrect angle estimation is a leading cause of error in Doppler-based blood velocity measurements. In this paper, we propose a deep learning-based approach for automated Doppler angle estimation. The approach was developed using 2100 human carotid ultrasound images including image augmentation. Five pre-trained models were used to extract images features, and these features were passed to a custom shallow network for Doppler angle estimation. Independently, measurements were obtained by a human observer reviewing the images for comparison. The mean absolute error (MAE) between the automated and manual angle estimates ranged from 3.9{\deg} to 9.4{\deg} for the models evaluated. Furthermore, the MAE for the best performing model was less than the acceptable clinical Doppler angle error threshold thus avoiding misclassification of normal velocity values as a stenosis. The results demonstrate potential for applying a deep-learning based technique for automated ultrasound Doppler angle estimation. Such a technique could potentially be implemented within the imaging software on commercial ultrasound scanners.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

PhysVLA: Towards Physically-Grounded VLA for Embodied Robotic Manipulation

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models excel at mapping visual inputs and natural language instructions directly to robotic control policies. However, because they are trained primarily to fit behavioural demonstration data, they do not explicitly enforce fundamental physical principles such as rigid-body dynamics or contact constraints. This exposes a critical physics gap: standard temporal smoothing applied on top of single-step or chunked VLAs trades trajectory quality for added failures that short-term memory cannot resolve. To bridge this gap, we introduce PhysVLA (Physics-VLA), a plug-and-play, inference-time framework designed to wrap any frozen VLA backbone without retraining, fine-tuning, or weight access, with less than 1 ms of overhead per control step. PhysVLA intercepts the predicted control action, captures only the simulator or system state, and applies a dual-layered correction: (i) a phase-aware finite-state machine that structures discrete task segments (approach, grasp, transport, and place), and (ii) a selective Euler-Lagrange gate that activates only when a dynamics oracle detects kinodynamic inconsistency. Evaluated across OpenVLA, OpenVLA-OFT, Force-VLA, and Generalist-VLA on LIBERO-Spatial with a 7-DoF Franka Panda, the framework delivers absolute success rate increases of up to 17% and stability increases of up to 19% with no per-task regressions, improves trajectory efficiency by up to 15% across all four backbones, and shows up to a 10x improvement in trajectory jerk robustness on a Robosuite Lift cross-simulator sweep. We further validate the framework on a real Agilex Piper arm with a pick-and-place task, confirming that PhysVLA transfers to physical hardware without retraining, with success-rate improvements of up to 50%, establishing physical awareness as a composable, backbone-agnostic runtime module.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

The Cost Geometry of Belief: finite-resource inference under noisy observation

arXiv:2606.21585v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite machine's digital twin of a system observes the territory through finite, noisy sensors; we model its coherent output as a belief, a probability density over states, the Bayes posterior, never a point. Certainty, the perfect twin, is denied twice, by observation and by physics, both read off the Fisher information. To make this finiteness geometric, we model what it costs to change a belief: a belief-cost geometry, optimal transport in Wasserstein space reweighted conformally by Fisher information. The framework rests on two posed commitments: that revision cost is a scalar price on transport (the arena), and that the price is honest: one nat costs the same length everywhere. Honesty selects the Fisher reweighting because transport demotes the Fisher information from the metric ruler of distinguishability to the slope of entropy, the move that sets transport apart from Fisher-Rao. From these two postulates, three results follow on the conformal class (essentially location-scale), all invariants of one change of cost unit. A wall: a well-posed inference rejects certainty to infinite distance as soon as the cost dominates the Fisher information (necessity conjectured beyond power laws). An honest family: the eikonal price where each nat the same length everywhere, is equivalent to proportionality U=cJ, the Fisher family. A rigidity: these geometries are hyperbolic, and the Stam bound crowns the Gaussian, the most hyperbolic location-scale belief; -1/4 is one image of a relativity of cost. The cost of reaching a given precision then has a geometric cost floor diverging at certainty. Thermodynamics fixes the cost unit and motivates the framework; the results are geometric, in nats.

11.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

AdsMind: A Physics-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Self-Correcting Discovery of Adsorption Configurations on Heterogeneous Catalyst Surfaces

arXiv:2606.19152v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Identifying the lowest-energy surface-adsorbate configuration is critical for modeling heterogeneous catalysis, yet exhaustive exploration with ab initio calculations is computationally prohibitive. Machine-learning force fields (MLFFs) accelerate structural relaxation but leave the search over the vast configurational space a major bottleneck, and open-loop large language model (LLM) agents lack a physics-grounded feedback mechanism to correct erroneous initial guesses. We propose AdsMind (Adsorption configuration discovery with Machine intelligence and relaxation feedback), a closed-loop multi-agent framework that enables autonomous error correction through MLFF relaxation feedback. Across four LLM backends, AdsMind achieves consistently high search reliability, with success rates of 100% and 98.8% on the benchmarks AA20 and OCD-GMAE62. Relative to its single-pass (1-Shot) ablation it reduces cross-backend energy dispersion, and it uses only 4.11 and 4.67 MLFF relaxations per case, respectively – an approximately 14-fold reduction over heuristic enumeration baselines. Density functional theory (DFT) validation using VASP/PBE on six representative AA20 systems shows that the reported open-loop Adsorb-Agent outputs exhibit qualitative adsorption-energy sign errors for molecular adsorbates, whereas AdsMind preserves the correct sign in all tested cases with closer quantitative agreement. AdsMind thus delivers reliability, self-reflection, and interpretability simultaneously, supporting more DFT-informed autonomous chemistry workflows.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-15

Recovering Stranded Discrimination in Knowledge Tracing: Per-Item Bias Correction via Empirical-Bayes Shrinkage

arXiv:2606.14123v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deployed knowledge-tracing models are typically frozen after training, yet systematic per-item logit bias arises, from limited per-item expressivity in backbone architectures and from post-deployment shifts in item properties, degrading prediction quality. Global post-hoc calibrators such as Platt scaling, temperature scaling, and isotonic regression improve probability estimates but leave discriminative ability, as measured by AUC, unchanged. This AUC invariance is a structural consequence of monotone score-only transforms; recovering the stranded discrimination requires conditioning on item identity. We propose SLC (State-space Logit Correction), which converts binary observations to Gaussian pseudo-observations via Laplace/IRLS, applies empirical-Bayes shrinkage through a Kalman smoother, and fits an offset-Platt link. The state-space formulation also yields a detectability bound that characterizes the Bernoulli information floor, explaining why temporal tracking provides no benefit at current data densities. Across four datasets, five backbones, and three seeds, SLC improves AUC on all four datasets and NLL on three, with the advantage concentrating on sparse items. Cross-domain controls suggest that the same phenomenon can arise beyond education when the deployed backbone leaves entity-level bias.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

DeepRoot: A KG-Coordinated Multi-Agent System for Therapeutic Reasoning over Historical Medical Texts

arXiv:2606.15931v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Historical medical archives and traditional medicines hold immense potential for drug discovery and remain a primary source for current drug development. However, pre-ontological prose and idiosyncratic taxonomies prevent the standardization and medical modernization of the data for use in current biomedical pipelines. Furthermore, no existing LLM agent system, whether tool-calling, retrieval-augmented, or agentic deep-research, can convert such text into verifiable drug-discovery leads at scale. We close this gap with DeepRoot, a multi-agent LLM system that jointly builds and utilizes a verified knowledge graph, showing that grounding and reasoning – often conflated – are separable axes the system can compose for therapeutic reasoning. Applied to the Shen Nong Ben Cao Jing, DeepRoot recovers $10$ of $21$ held-out compound-disease treatment pairs at R@$20$ ($47.6\%$ vs $4.8\%$ for a raw corpus LLM and $\sim\!2.4\%$ random) and dominates an LLM-as-judge audit for reasoning quality over baseline LLMs and LLMs with direct tool-call access to the same APIs DeepRoot itself queries. Tool-using LLMs hallucinate evidence on $87\%$ of claims, versus 7-10% for DeepRoot. Graph-only inference hallucinates $0\%$ but ranks lowest on reasoning coherence; DeepRoot KG+LLM is the only condition to win on both axes, pointing toward a route for systematic mining and repurposing of historical medical knowledge.

14.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-23

What Is the Optimal Timing and Frequency of Workload-Matched Postprandial Physical Activity Breaks? A Randomized Controlled Crossover Study of Cardiometabolic and Cognitive Responses During Sedentary Behavior

Purpose Postprandial sedentary behavior is associated with negative health effects and constitutes a large part of daily life in modern society. This study investigated how the timing of physical activity after eating influences glucose levels, cerebral and muscle oxygenation, cognitive performance, and well-being during subsequent sitting. Methods In a four-armed randomized crossover trial, healthy adults consumed four standardized meals separated by 48-hour washout periods. Each meal was followed by 2 hours of sitting combined, in random order, with one of four interventions: (1) sitting only, (2) 15 minutes of moderate intensity cycling immediately after eating, (3) 15 minutes of cycling 20 minutes after eating, or (4) three workload-matched five-minute cycling bouts during sitting. Interstitial glucose (continuous glucose monitoring), cerebral and muscle oxygenation (Functional near infrared spectroscopy), cognitive performance (Stroop test), heart rate, blood pressure, and subjective ratings were assessed every 30 minutes. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA. Results Twenty participants (mean age 27.1{+/-}10.3 years, 12 females) completed the study. Cycling immediately after eating reduced mean glucose levels during postprandial sitting, while both 15-minute cycling bouts increased cerebral oxygenation. All active conditions enhanced muscle oxygenation. Heart rate and arousal increased with delayed cycling and active breaks. No effects were observed for blood pressure, cognitive performance, focus, or well-being. Conclusion A short bout of physical activity immediately after eating reduces postprandial hyperglycemia and improves brain oxygenation during sitting, whereas delayed activity and brief breaks increase physiological activation without cognitive or perceptual benefits.

15.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Trading symmetry for Hilbert-space dimension in Bell-inequality violation

arXiv:2601.02893v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In quantum information, asymmetry, i.e., the lack of symmetry, is a resource allowing one to accomplish certain tasks that are otherwise impossible. Similarly, in a Bell test using any given Bell inequality, the maximum violation achievable using quantum strategies respecting or disregarding a certain symmetry can be different. In this work, we focus on the symmetry involved in the exchange of parties and explore when we have to trade this symmetry for a lower-dimensional quantum strategy in achieving the maximal violation of given Bell inequalities. For the family of symmetric Collins-Gisin-Linden-Massar-Popescu inequalities, we provide evidence showing that there is no such trade-off. However, for several other Bell inequalities with a small number of dichotomic measurement settings, we show that symmetric quantum strategies in the minimal Hilbert space dimension can only lead to a suboptimal Bell violation. In other words, there exist symmetric Bell inequalities that can only be maximally violated by asymmetric quantum strategies of minimal dimension. In contrast, one can also find examples of asymmetric Bell inequalities that are maximally violated by symmetric correlations. The implications of these findings on the geometry of the set of quantum correlations and the possibility of performing self-testing therefrom are briefly discussed.

16.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

A Closer Look at Failure Modes in Temporal Understanding of Large Audio-Language Models

arXiv:2606.17417v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Audio Language Models (LALMs) achieve strong performance on a variety of audio understanding tasks but continue to struggle with temporal reasoning, a fundamental capability central to human auditory perception. Understanding the causes of these failures remains challenging as existing benchmarks report performance gaps without probing underlying mechanisms. To address this, we introduce a benchmark with 1,657 questions across three foundational tasks designed specifically for mechanistic analysis. Examining model outputs across varying input settings (behavioral analysis) reveals that models often under-utilize audio when textual cues are available. We also provide the first causal mechanistic analysis of temporal reasoning failures in LALMs. Comparing attention upweighting against scaling, we find that redistributing attention across audio tokens is more effective than increasing audio attention. Targeting task-relevant tokens yields further gains. These findings suggest that modality imbalance alone cannot explain failures. Attention scaling at bottleneck layers improves accuracy from 55.9% to 59.1% without fine-tuning, demonstrating a promising direction for future work.

17.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-16

Recurrence After Hepatic Hydatid Cyst Surgery: Scolicidal Agent Application Technique and the Effect of Cystopiliary Fistula

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate long-term outcomes in patients who underwent surgical treatment for hepatic hydatid cyst (HCC) disease and, in particular, to investigate the effect of scolicidal agent (SA) application method and the presence of cystobiliary fistula (CBF) on the development of recurrence. Materials and Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included 197 patients who underwent surgical treatment for HCC disease. Hypertonic saline was used as SA in all patients and was classified as intracystic or pericystic application according to the application method. The presence of CBF was evaluated according to intraoperative and postoperative findings. Patients were followed for 86 months, and the development of recurrence was identified by radiological methods. Comparisons were made between the groups with and without recurrence in terms of SA application method and the presence of CBF. Results: The median age of the patients was 38 years, and the median follow-up period was 86 months. SA application was performed into the cyst in 51.3% of the patients and around the cyst in 48.7%. The presence of CBF was detected in 49.7% of the patients. No statistically significant difference was found between the recurrent and non-recurrent groups in terms of SA application method (p = 0.344). Similarly, no significant relationship was found between the presence of CBF and the development of recurrence (p = 0.721). Conclusion: This study showed that the SA application method and the presence of CBF are not determinants of recurrence in HCC disease. It is thought that recurrence rates can be kept low with appropriate surgical technique and effective biliary tract management.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Steering Where to Listen: Instruction-Based Activation Steering Redirects Temporal Attention in Large Audio-Language Models

arXiv:2606.11400v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Audio-Language Models (LALMs) excel at audio understanding but expose little about where in an audio signal they attend. We introduce instruction-based vector steering, which constructs a steering vector by contrasting activations from differently instructed prompts while keeping the audio fixed. Through a systematic probe of LALM attention, we find that - unlike standard prompting or audio-based steering - this intervention significantly redistributes the temporal attention allocated to audio tokens, concentrating it on acoustically relevant regions. We then show that this attention shift is behaviorally meaningful: in a controlled three-event setting, reading out the temporal position of maximal steering-induced attention change recovers the location of a queried sound event without any training, attaining 60.87% and 68.72% overlap with ground-truth intervals on Qwen2-Audio and Audio Flamingo 3, far above direct prompting (31.84%, 46.75%) and random baselines (27.74%). Our results characterize a mechanistic property of instruction-based steering in LALMs and provide a training-free probe for the latent temporal structure these models encode.

19.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-24

BenchX: Benchmarking AI Models for Cancer Detection and Localization with Demographic and Protocol Biases

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved remarkable success in medical imaging, but it is widely recognized that these models often perform inconsistently across real-world clinical settings. Such inconsistencies occur when patient demographics and imaging protocols vary, for example, in detecting small tumors, analyzing scans from different contrast phases, or evaluating patients of different ages or sexes. To quantify these inconsistencies, we develop a large-scale, open benchmark of 85,355 CT scans that systematically evaluates 12 tumor-detection AI models across tumor size, location, patient subgroup, and imaging protocol. We leverage large language models (LLMs) to extract and organize subgroup information from clinical data, which makes the analysis both scalable and reproducible. Our benchmark reveals that current state-of-the-art AI models, optimized for average accuracy, perform poorly in rare or underrepresented subgroups, such as young, female African Americans. However, collecting sufficient annotated data for these rare cases is often impractical. The benchmark provides a foundation for building more reliable and robust AI models for tumor detection and highlighting the need for rigorous, subgroup-level evaluation in medical imaging and computer vision. Datasets, code

20.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-11

Intermittent time series forecasting: local vs global models

arXiv:2601.14031v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Forecasting intermittent time series, which contain zeros, is a crucial challenge in supply chains as inventory policies require probabilistic forecasts to establish safety levels. Intermittent time series are commonly forecast using local models, trained individually on each time series. In the last years global models, trained on a large collection of time series, have become popular for time series forecasting. Global models are often based on neural networks or gradient boosted trees. We carry out the first study comparing state-of-the-art probabilistic local and global models on intermittent time series. For global models we consider three different distribution heads suitable for intermittent time series: negative binomial, hurdle-shifted negative binomial and Tweedie. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first use of the latter two with neural networks. We perform experiments on five datasets comprising overall more than 40'000 real-world time series. Among global models, TiDE, a simple neural network architecture, achieves the best accuracy; it also consistently outperforms local models and has lower computational requirements. Large global models are instead much more computationally demanding and less accurate. Among the distribution heads, the Tweedie provides the best estimates of the highest quantiles.

21.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-12

Efficient certification of intractable quantum states with few Pauli measurements

arXiv:2511.07300v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Efficient verification of quantum computational resources is crucial as experiments advance toward fault-tolerance. Universal quantum computation can be achieved by consuming resource states through simple Pauli measurements, yet a significant gap remains between states that are easy to certify and those required for universality. We focus on Clifford-enhanced Product States, a class of resource states obtained by applying Clifford circuits to a product of single-qubit, potentially magic, states. While essential for universal computation, the certification of such states has previously relied on query oracles that are \#P-hard to implement, leaving their efficient, oracle-free verification an open challenge. In this work, we demonstrate that such classically intractable resource states can be efficiently verified using only Pauli measurements. Our protocol achieves sample- and time-efficiency in both i.i.d.\ and adversarial settings. This work fills a gap in Pauli-based certification, providing a new practical pathway to verify resource states that drive universal Pauli-based quantum computation.

22.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-18

Age as a moderator of a brief alcohol intervention among injury patients in Northern Tanzania

Background: Alcohol use is a leading modifiable risk factor for injury in sub-Saharan Africa. In Tanzania, young people ([≤]24 years) experience greater alcohol-related harm despite drinking less frequently than adults. Punguza Pombe kwa Afya Yako (PPKAY) is a culturally adapted, brief intervention for injury patients in Tanzania. This study examined whether age moderates its effectiveness. Methods: We conducted an exploratory secondary analysis of baseline and 3-month data from the PPKAY randomized trial among injury patients aged [≥]18 years at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Tanzania. Eligible participants reporting alcohol use before injury, AUDIT [≥]8, or positive breathalyzer were randomized to usual care or PPKAY with SMS boosters. The primary outcome was binge drinking days. Count outcomes were analyzed using negative binomial regression with robust SEs and continuous outcomes using mixed-effects models. Effect modification was assessed using a three-way interaction (Time x intervention x Age). Results: Among 543 participants (mean age 36.8 years; 16.2% aged 18–24), age moderated the intervention effect for drinking days (IRR = 0.27, 95% CI 0.07 – 0.98; p = 0.046) and drinks consumed (IRR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.04 – 0.77; p = 0.021). The intervention reduced 4 drinking days (95% CI -7.1 to -0.8) and 27.5 drinks (95% CI -42.8 to -12.2) among young people, while adults showed reductions in both arms, without intervention-specific effect. Conclusion: The effects of ED-based brief alcohol interventions are not uniform, varying across both age groups and alcohol-related outcomes. We found a greater responsiveness in drinking frequency and quantity reported among young people.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-24

Density-Informed Pseudo-Counts for Calibrated Evidential Deep Learning

arXiv:2602.01477v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations and behavior under distributional shift remain poorly understood. In this work, we provide a principled statistical interpretation by proving that EDL training corresponds to amortized variational inference in a hierarchical Bayesian model with a tempered pseudo-likelihood. This perspective reveals a major drawback: standard EDL conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to systematic overconfidence on out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. To address this, we introduce Density-Informed Pseudo-count EDL (DIP-EDL), a new parametrization that decouples class prediction from the magnitude of uncertainty by separately estimating the conditional label distribution and the marginal covariate density. This separation preserves evidence in high-density regions while shrinking predictions toward a uniform prior for OOD data. Theoretically, we prove that DIP-EDL achieves asymptotic concentration. Empirically, we show that our method enhances interpretability and improves robustness and uncertainty calibration under distributional shift.

24.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials

arXiv:2606.17319v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by the optimization of bounded binary black-box functions, we study the problem of learning polynomial surrogates over the Boolean hypercube. To ensure that optimizing the surrogate yields good solutions for the underlying objective, we require uniform $L_\infty$-error guarantees rather than the usual $L_2$-type guarantees. We characterize the minimax sample complexity of uniform estimation under subgaussian noise for two classes of bounded polynomials. First, for polynomials of degree at most $d$ on $n$ variables, the sample complexity scales as $n^{d+1}$. Second, for $s$-sparse Fourier-Walsh polynomials with $s \leq n$, it scales as $ns^2$. These rates differ structurally from the noiseless setting, where uniform exact recovery scales as $n^d$ and $ns$, respectively. Our lower bounds hold even for arbitrary adaptive learners, showing that the additional factors are intrinsic to the noisy cases. Standard Fourier-analysis tools for the $L_2$-norm do not naturally extend to the $L_\infty$-setting in a way that yields uniform guarantees. Our proofs overcome this difficulty by relying on suitably chosen auxiliary norms that serve as proxies for controlling the $L_\infty$-error. Together, our results provide a tight characterization of the sample complexity of learning optimization-safe polynomial surrogates.

25.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

CONCORD: Asynchronous Sparse Aggregation for Device-Cloud RAG under Document Isolation

arXiv:2606.15179v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a pivotal technique for improving language models by incorporating external knowledge at inference time. As device-cloud collaborative inference makes it feasible to deploy small language models on edge devices, a new setting arises in which private documents remain on the device and public knowledge resides in the cloud. Privacy and policy constraints often forbid raw document exchange, creating a document-isolated dual-end RAG setting. However, existing methods rely on frequent remote synchronization and dense evidence transfer, limiting throughput under realistic latency and bandwidth conditions. To address this issue, we propose CONCORD, an asynchronous sparse aggregation framework for dual-end RAG under document isolation. CONCORD treats the cloud as an asynchronously arriving evidence source rather than a continuously synchronized co-generator. Specifically, we introduce waiting debt control to decide whether each decoding step should continue waiting for remote participation based on the observed return of waiting. We also design a certificate-guided minimal supplementation mechanism that requests only the remote evidence needed to determine the current greedy decision. Steps that consult the cloud preserve the same greedy token as dense dual-end aggregation, while the remaining steps commit locally without remote evidence. Experiments on Natural Questions and WikiText-2 show that CONCORD improves end-to-end throughput over baselines by $1.66\times$ and $2.15\times$, respectively, while reducing per-token communication by over two orders of magnitude and maintaining comparable answer quality and perplexity.