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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

SymQNet: Amortized Acquisition for Low-Latency Adaptive Hamiltonian Learning

arXiv:2606.12808v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Adaptive Hamiltonian learning is central to calibrating and characterizing quantum devices. In an adaptive controller, choosing the next experiment is itself a computation. Bayesian design rules are recomputed after every posterior update, and that step can take seconds. Across hundreds of shots, those seconds become a significant wall-clock cost for adaptivity. We introduce SymQNet, an amortized reinforcement-learning approach for low-latency adaptive Hamiltonian learning. SymQNet learns a posterior-conditioned acquisition policy offline, then uses a fast policy forward pass online while retaining Bayesian posterior feedback. On transverse-field Ising benchmarks, SymQNet substantially reduces acquisition latency relative to bounded Fisher-information search and bounded two-step Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD). At five qubits, it reduces acquisition-only decision latency by $47.1\times$ and $72.6\times$ relative to these online baselines; at twelve qubits, full simulated steps take $1.02$ s for SymQNet versus $13.27$ s for bounded two-step BALD. Overall, we show that learned acquisition can make adaptive Hamiltonian learning practical for repeated low-latency workloads.

02.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-11

Continuous stochastic flows driven by white noise and their duals

作者:

arXiv:2606.12143v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study a class of continuous stochastic flows driven by a space-time white noise and characterize their dual flows by explicit stochastic differential equations. A key ingredient of the proof is the convergence of solutions under coefficient approximations. As an application, we derive the dual flows in two illustrative examples, the squared Bessel flow and the Jacobi flow. We also introduce a new model of polynomially self-repelling (PSR) flow and show that it enjoys a self-duality property.

03.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

HypOProto: Hyperbolic Ordinal Prototypes for Left Ventricular Filling Pressure Classification

Echocardiography (echo) is a widely used imaging modality for assessing cardiac function, with Left Ventricular Filling Pressure (LVFP) serving as a critical physiological marker for conditions such as heart failure. Standard LVFP classification into normal vs elevated categories relies on the Doppler-derived $E/e'$ ratio, which is operator-dependent and often unavailable in resource-limited settings, motivating methods that infer LVFP directly from B-mode echo. Existing deep learning approaches achieve high performance but remain largely black-box, limiting clinical interpretability. We propose HypOProto, a hyperbolic, ordinal prototype-based framework for interpretable LVFP classification using a frozen, explainable foundation model backbone. HypOProto arranges prototypes along the physiological $E/e'$ scale, placing borderline cases near the hyperboloid root where small angular differences separate similar cases, while normal and elevated cases occupy outward positions reflecting increasing diagnostic certainty. This hyperbolic geometry encodes clinically meaningful ordinal relationships and improves interpretability. We also introduce a novel Hyperbolic Prototype Angular Separation (HyperPAS) loss, enforcing inter-class prototype separation in hyperbolic space. HypOProto achieves SOTA performance while maintaining transparency, and highlights clinically relevant regions in visualizations. This work represents the first prototype-based framework for LVFP classification in echo. Our code can be found at https://github.com/DeepRCL/HypOProto.

04.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Faster Completion, Less Learning: Generative AI Reduced Study Time on Math Problems and the Knowledge They Build

arXiv:2605.21629v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: How much have students' ordinary learning processes shifted in response to generative AI, and how does that affect their durable learning outcomes? Self-report surveys show little change, while small-scale behavioral studies report widespread AI use without the scale or duration to measure learning consequences. We address both questions using a ten-year panel of $3.2$ million ALEKS learning interactions for investigating time-on-task, complemented by ALEKS PPL placement-assessment data for examining proctoring and learning outcomes, with a quasi-experimental design exploiting variation in tasks that are more susceptible to AI (text-based word problems) and less susceptible to AI (interactive graph-based problems). Learning time on AI-susceptible problems declines $2.8\%$ per quarter among college students after ChatGPT's release, cumulating to $26.9\%$ over eleven quarters; high-schoolers show $31.3\%$, middle-schoolers $9.0\%$, and Grade 5 students no detectable change. Among college students, the post-ChatGPT divergence vanishes entirely under proctoring, ruling out broad efficiency gains as the likely explanation. Logistic fixed-effects models on randomly assigned proctored retention items yield a $25\%$ cumulative decline in odds of correct response; the same estimator on non-proctored assessment produces a large opposite-signed increase – inconsistent with any platform, cohort, or curriculum explanation. These results are among the first large-scale behavioral and outcome evidence that generative AI has altered how students study and the knowledge they build – the population-level indicator of cognitive surrender, with direct implications for educational research, assessment governance, and AI policy.

05.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Dense Supervision, Sparse Updates: On the Sparsity and Geometry of On-Policy Distillation

arXiv:2606.13657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: On-policy distillation (\textsc{OPD}) has recently become a prominent post-training recipe as it combines two desirable ingredients: on-policy student trajectories and dense teacher supervision, yet how this hybrid changes a model's parameters remains unclear. Across several language and vision-language model pairs and use cases, our analysis yields two main findings. On sparsity, \textsc{OPD}-style updates are small and coordinate-sparse. They are distributed across layers and are usually FFN-heavy. This sparse structure is operationally useful: training only the discovered subnetwork recovers nearly the same performance as full \textsc{OPD}. However, the sparsity-inducing SGD optimizer underperforms AdamW in our optimizer ablation, likely because dense teacher supervision preserves heterogeneous coordinate-wise gradient scales where AdamW's adaptive scaling remains useful. On geometry, the updates are numerically full-rank but spectrally concentrated; they lie mostly away from the principal singular subspaces of the source weights and fall disproportionately on coordinates where the source weights are close to zero. These findings suggest that dense teacher supervision does not turn \textsc{OPD} into ordinary dense parameter rewriting; instead, \textsc{OPD} retains important geometric signatures of on-policy post-training.

06.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

TextResNet: Decoupling and Routing Optimization Signals in Compound AI Systems via Deep Residual Tuning

arXiv:2602.08306v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Textual Gradient-style optimizers (TextGrad) enable gradient-like feedback propagation through compound AI systems. However, they do not work well for deep chains. The root cause of this limitation stems from the Semantic Entanglement problem in these extended workflows. In standard textual backpropagation, feedback signals mix local critiques with upstream contexts, leading to Attribution Ambiguity. To address this challenge, we propose TextResNet, a framework that reformulates the optimization process to achieve precise signal routing via four key innovations. Firstly, in the forward pass, it enforces Additive Semantic Deltas to preserve an Identity Highway for gradient flow. Secondly, in the backward pass, it introduces Semantic Gradient Decomposition via a Semantic Projector to disentangle feedback into causally independent subspaces. Thirdly, it implements Causal Routing, which routes projected signals to their specific components. Finally, it performs Density-Aware Optimization Scheduling to leverage the disentangled signals to dynamically allocate resources to key system bottlenecks. Our results show that TextResNet not only achieves superior performance compared to TextGrad, but also exhibits remarkable stability for agentic tasks in compound AI systems where baselines collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/JeanDiable/TextResNet.

07.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-12

Proto-LeakNet: Towards Signal-Leak Aware Attribution in Synthetic Human Face Imagery

The growing sophistication of synthetic image and deepfake generation models has turned source attribution and authenticity verification into a critical challenge for modern computer vision systems. Recent studies suggest that diffusion pipelines unintentionally imprint persistent statistical traces, known as signal-leaks, within their outputs, particularly in latent representations. Building on this observation, we propose Proto-LeakNet, a signal-leak-aware and interpretable attribution framework that integrates Closed-set classification with a density-based Open-set evaluation on the learned embeddings, enabling analysis of unseen generators without retraining. Acting in the latent domain of diffusion models, our method re-simulates partial forward diffusion to expose residual generator-specific cues. A temporal attention encoder aggregates multi-step latent features, while a feature-weighted prototype head structures the embedding space and enables transparent attribution. Trained solely on closed data and achieving a Macro AUC of 98.13\%, Proto-LeakNet learns a latent geometry that remains robust under post-processing, surpassing state-of-the-art methods, and achieves strong separability both between real images and known generators, and between known and unseen ones. The codebase is available at the following link: https://github.com/claudiunderthehood/Proto-LeakNet .

08.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

CTS-MoE: Implicit Terrain Adaptation via Mixture-of-Experts for Perceptive Locomotion

arXiv:2606.19633v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Perceptive legged locomotion over discontinuous terrain (e.g., stairs, gaps, and obstacles) requires adaptive behavior, as a single conservative gait cannot produce the anticipatory maneuvers needed for abrupt topology changes. Cast as multi-task reinforcement learning, this problem introduces a tension between sharing and separation. Tasks use a common locomotion base but have conflicting rewards, so a policy must share behavior while avoiding value interference. Prior work addresses only one side, with monolithic policies sacrificing specialization and hierarchical sub-policies sacrificing generalization across transitions and unseen terrain. We propose CTS-MoE, which combines a dense mixture-of-experts actor with perception-based gating to compose shared behaviors and a multi-critic with task-specific value heads to prevent interference. The model is trained end-to-end in a single-stage concurrent teacher-student setup that handles partial observability and avoids sequential distillation, with task labels used only during training. At deployment, routing depends solely on perception, allowing terrain adaptation without a high-level selector or terrain classifier. Experiments on a Unitree Go1 in simulation and on hardware across seen and unseen terrains show task-aware specialization, with lower tracking error and higher success rates than monolithic baselines. Project Website: https://cts-moe.github.io/ .

09.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Truncated Wigner dynamics of biclique quantum spin glasses

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arXiv:2606.20187v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantum spin glasses are often considered testbeds for studying quantum optimization algorithms and as such have been the subject of various quantum advantage claims. Here we investigate the near adiabatic dynamics of biclique quantum spin glasses within the (discrete) truncated Wigner approximation (TWA). Benchmarks on small systems show that TWA recovers sample-to-sample fluctuations of the Edwards-Anderson order parameter, over a wide range of annealing times, with increasing fidelity when the system size increases. We extract critical exponents from the Binder cumulant in line with theoretical expectations, reproducing recent quantum experiments. The computational cost of the method is minimal and it can easily be applied to tens of thousands of qubits.

10.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

One-Step Generalization Ratio Guided Optimization for Domain Generalization

arXiv:2606.16301v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Domain Generalization (DG) aims to train models that generalize to unseen target domains but often overfit to domain-specific features, known as undesired correlations. Gradient-based DG methods typically guide gradients in a dominant direction but often inadvertently reinforce spurious correlations. Recent work has employed dropout to regularize overconfident parameters, but has not explicitly adjusted gradient alignment or ensured balanced parameter updates. We propose GENIE (Generalization-ENhancing Iterative Equalizer), a novel optimizer that leverages the One-Step Generalization Ratio (OSGR) to quantify each parameter's contribution to loss reduction and assess gradient alignment. By dynamically equalizing OSGR via a preconditioning factor, GENIE prevents a small subset of parameters from dominating optimization, thereby promoting domain-invariant feature learning. Theoretically, GENIE balances convergence contribution and gradient alignment among parameters, achieving higher OSGR while retaining SGD's convergence rate. Empirically, it outperforms existing optimizers and enhances performance when integrated with various DG and single-DG methods.

11.
arXiv (math.PR) 2026-06-18

A scaling limit theorem for controlled branching processes with a size-divisible term

arXiv:2508.17116v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper establishes general sufficient conditions for a sequence of controlled branching processes to converge weakly on the Skorokhod space. We focus on a class of control mechanisms that extend previous results by decomposing those random variables into the sum of two independent components: an immigration term, which depends on the current population size, and a size-divisible term, which can be expressed as the sum of random contributions from each individual. This extension allows us to capture a broad range of control functions including Poisson, binomial, and negative binomial distributions, commonly used in the literature. The assumptions are formulated in terms of probability generating functions of the offspring and control laws, distinguishing in this latter between the immigration and the size-divisible parts. The limit process is shown to be a continuous-state branching process with dependent immigration. The proof essentially relies on tightness arguments and the identification of a martingale problem. We also identify the special case in which the limit reduces to a classical Feller branching diffusion with immigration.

12.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Hierarchical Modeling of ICD Codes in EHR Foundation Models

arXiv:2606.15447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electronic health record foundation models typically treat ICD diagnosis codes as flat tokens, overlooking the clinically meaningful hierarchical structure that captures disease families, subcategories, and fine-grained diagnostic detail. As a result, existing EHR representation learning methods do not explicitly exploit the hierarchical structure already present in the coding system. In this work, we study ICD-10-CM hierarchy as a general inductive bias for clinical representation learning. We investigate two complementary mechanisms for incorporating hierarchy: first, by augmenting diagnosis sequences in a BERT-style transformer with tokens corresponding to different levels of the ICD hierarchy, and second, by injecting hierarchy into graph-based code representations through hierarchy-aware edges combined with diagnosis co-occurrence structure. Across these settings, we evaluate whether explicit hierarchy improves downstream prediction, which levels of the hierarchy are most useful, whether hierarchy encoding improves transfer across datasets, and how hierarchy reshapes embedding similarity structure. We conduct experiments on two large-scale real-world clinical datasets: MIMIC-IV, used for pretraining and in-domain evaluation, and eICU, used to assess cross-dataset transfer via frozen encoder probing. Our findings show that explicitly encoding ICD hierarchy improves over flat code representations in both in-domain and cross-dataset settings, while revealing that the most useful level of hierarchy depends on both the task and the modeling approach. More broadly, we focus on hierarchy-aware EHR representation learning and show that the benefits of encoding hierarchy are generalizable across modeling settings and hierarchy levels.

13.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

MLaGA: Multimodal Large Language and Graph Assistant

arXiv:2506.02568v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated substantial efficacy in advancing graph-structured data analysis. Prevailing LLM-based graph methods excel in adapting LLMs to text-rich graphs, wherein node attributes are text descriptions. However, their applications to multimodal graphs–where nodes are associated with diverse attribute types, such as texts and images–remain underexplored, despite their ubiquity in real-world scenarios. To bridge the gap, we introduce the Multimodal Large Language and Graph Assistant (MLaGA), an innovative model that adeptly extends LLM capabilities to facilitate reasoning over complex graph structures and multimodal attributes. We first design a structure-aware multimodal encoder to align textual and visual attributes within a unified space through a joint graph pre-training objective. Subsequently, we implement a multimodal instruction-tuning approach to seamlessly integrate multimodal features and graph structures into the LLM through lightweight projectors. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MLaGA compared to leading baseline methods, achieving superior performance in diverse graph learning tasks under both supervised and transfer learning scenarios.

14.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

VOiLA: Vectorized Online Planning with Learned Diffusion Model for POMDP Agents

arXiv:2606.19729v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Planning under uncertainty is an essential capability for autonomous robots. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a powerful framework for such a capability. Although POMDP-based planning has advanced significantly, its application to real-world problems is often limited by the difficulty of obtaining faithful POMDP models. We present Vectorized Online planning wIth Learned diffusion model for POMDP Agents (VOiLA), a framework that learns task-agnostic POMDP models for online planning under uncertainty. VOiLA learns transition and observation samplers using conditional diffusion models and learns observation-likelihood models for particle-based belief updates. To enable efficient online planning, the diffusion samplers are distilled into compact feedforward generators and integrated with Vectorized Online POMDP Planner (VOPP), an online POMDP planner designed to leverage GPU parallelization. Experimental results indicate the distillation strategy reduces sampling cost by up to nearly three orders of magnitude, making learned generative POMDP models practical for online planning. Evaluation of VOiLA on three benchmark problems indicate that VOiLA achieves equal or better performance than Recurrent Soft Actor Critic while using less than 10% training data, and generalizes much better to unseen environment configurations. Physical robot evaluation indicates VOiLA uses the models learned using only simulated data and generates a policy that successfully accomplish the task in 10 of 10 runs.

15.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Generalizing Beyond Suboptimality: Offline Reinforcement Learning Learns Effective Scheduling through Random Solutions

arXiv:2509.10303v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Online reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have demonstrated strong performance on Job Shop Scheduling (JSP) and Flexible JSP (FJSP) problems by learning scheduling policies through direct interaction with simulated environments. However, these methods often require extensive training interactions, limiting their sample efficiency and practical applicability. Motivated by this challenge, we introduce Conservative Discrete Quantile Actor-Critic (CDQAC), an offline RL algorithm that learns effective scheduling policies directly from static, suboptimal datasets. CDQAC couples a quantile-based critic with delayed policy updates to estimate the return distribution of machine-operation pairs. Extensive experiments on JSP and FJSP benchmarks demonstrate that CDQAC consistently outperforms the data-generating heuristics, surpasses state-of-the-art offline and online RL baselines, and is highly sample efficient, requiring only 1 to 5% of the original dataset to learn high-quality policies. Our analysis suggests that, in scheduling, offline RL performance is governed mainly by state-action coverage rather than the quality of individual trajectories. Scheduling couples a dense reward aligned with the makespan objective with equal-length trajectories across heuristics, enabling effective learning from a broad range of behaviors. Consistent with this observation, datasets generated by a simple random heuristic with broader coverage let it outperform policies trained on datasets produced by stronger heuristics such as Genetic Algorithms.

16.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Wealth-Related Inequalities in Cesarean Section Utilization Among Facility-Based Births in Bangladesh: Evidence from Public and Private Healthcare Facilities

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Background Bangladesh has experienced a rapid increase in cesarean section (CS) utilization over the past two decades. While previous studies have documented socioeconomic disparities in CS use, evidence on how wealth-related inequalities differ between public and private healthcare facilities remains limited. This study assessed the magnitude and drivers of socioeconomic inequality in CS utilization among facility-based births in Bangladesh. Methods We analyzed data from 3,008 facility-based births reported in the 2022 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). Survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with CS utilization. Wealth-related inequality was assessed using concentration curves and the Erreygers-corrected concentration index (ECCI). Regression-based decomposition of the standard concentration index was performed to quantify the contribution of socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare-related factors to observed inequalities overall and separately for public and private facilities. Results Overall, 71.2% of facility-based births were delivered by CS, with substantially higher prevalence in private facilities (84.2%) than in public facilities (35.9%). Women delivering in private facilities had markedly higher odds of CS than those delivering in public facilities (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 9.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.17-11.47). Significant pro-rich inequality was observed overall (ECCI: 0.154; 95% CI: 0.117-0.191), with inequality substantially greater in public facilities (ECCI: 0.189; 95% CI: 0.114-0.264) than in private facilities (ECCI: 0.049; 95% CI: 0.014-0.084). Decomposition analysis showed that household wealth was the dominant contributor to inequality, particularly the richest wealth quintile, accounting for 81.5% of overall inequality, 63.8% in public facilities, and 109.7% in private facilities. Conclusions Wealth-related inequalities in CS utilization remain substantial in Bangladesh despite widespread use of the procedure. Although pro-rich inequality exists across both sectors, inequality is considerably greater in public facilities and is driven by different mechanisms across facility types. Policies should simultaneously improve equitable access to medically necessary CS and reduce unnecessary procedures, particularly within the private sector.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Bayesian Inference and Decision Audits for Public Archives of Frontier AI Evaluations

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arXiv:2606.17005v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Public AI evaluations are often read as terminal leaderboards, yet the underlying evidence is a selective time series shaped by reporting rules, benchmark revisions, and missingness. Repeated public archives for LiveBench and Open LLM Leaderboard v2 serve as the primary longitudinal record; LMArena provides a preference stress test; and GAIA and tau-bench contribute limited agentic pilots. Together, these archives instantiate a Bayesian inference problem: under a fixed reporting convention, one constructed terminal-only example over $1{,}000$ systems is compatible with two pre-terminal histories, yielding times of $23.03$ or $75.13$ to reach within $0.05$ of the ceiling under the same terminal-tail model. In synthetic posterior comparisons, action-facing diagnostics differ across observation regimes. The candidate selection-aware frontier model fails synthetic recovery, objective-archive prediction, preference transfer, and uncertainty calibration; correspondingly, fixed audit gates reject its stronger claims. An archive-and-adjudication protocol reconstructs public evaluation histories, isolates a verified timing boundary, and falsifies unsupported frontier claims.

18.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

Aligned but Stereotypical? How System Prompts Shape Demographic Bias in LLM-Based Text-to-Image Models

Text-to-image (T2I) systems increasingly rely on Large Language Model (LLM)-based text conditioning to interpret and expand user prompts. While this improves prompt understanding and text-image alignment, we find that it can also introduce implicit demographic assumptions, even when demographic attributes are unspecified. To systematically investigate this behavior across varying levels of prompt ambiguity and complexity, we construct a comprehensive benchmark covering diverse prompt settings. Evaluations on eight recent T2I models show that LLM-based systems consistently exhibit stronger demographic skew than non-LLM-based baselines. We further analyze system prompts, a component unique to LLM-based T2I systems that guides prompt interpretation and expansion. Our analyses show that these instructions strongly influence text embeddings, which subsequently leads to biased image generations. Motivated by these findings, we propose FairPro, a training-free debiasing framework that adaptively generates fairness-aware instructions while preserving user intent. Experiments demonstrate that FairPro substantially reduces demographic disparities while maintaining prompt fidelity.

19.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

Residual-Space Evolutionary Optimization via Flow-based Generative Models

arXiv:2606.20084v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data editing with generative methods typically requires differentiable objectives and gradient-based search. However, these assumptions break down in flow-based settings, where edits are performed through forward and backward integration and often involve non-differentiable or black-box objectives. We introduce residual-space evolutionary optimization, a model-agnostic framework that addresses this gap by combining flow-based generative editing with evolutionary algorithms. Building on the observation that conditional flow matching (CFM) can disentangle condition-controlled factors from instance-specific residuals, our framework directly operates in residual space and separates two complementary search regimes: self-pollination performs local exploitation through feature-preserving residual refinement, and cross-pollination promotes broader exploration by recombining residuals across heterogeneous samples. As a proof of concept, we validate on MorphoMNIST, a benchmark dataset for counterfactual generation, and on crystal data, demonstrating that this exploration–exploitation decomposition provides a useful mechanism for balancing target alignment, instance preservation, and diversity, and extends beyond images to real-world scientific domains.

20.
bioRxiv (Bioinfo) 2026-06-18

Deciphering shared and divergent tissue architectures from cross-species spatial transcriptomics

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The integration of spatial transcriptomics (ST) data across species is essential for cross-species and translational studies, but remains challenging due to molecular divergence and anatomical differences between organisms. We present STACAME, a graph attention autoencoder-based framework to decipher shared and divergent tissue architectures from cross-species ST data by explicitly modeling both orthologous and species-specific genes. STACAME aligns ST slices in a spatially aware manner, identifies homologous and species-specific domains, and enables a suite of downstream comparative analyses. We demonstrate its utility by integrating ST datasets from diverse tissues, including hippocampus, isocortex, embryo, breast, liver, and cerebellum, across multiple species such as human, macaque, marmoset, mouse, and zebrafish. STACAME supports cross-species spatial domain alignment, the detection of shared and divergent spatially variable genes, development alignment and comparison, and the 3D integration of tissue architecture. This flexible approach facilitates the translation of findings from model organisms to humans, providing a unified computational platform for cross-species spatial transcriptomics.

21.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-16

Reinforcement Learning for LLM-based Event Forecasting

arXiv:2606.15917v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.

22.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-11

Are LLMs Bad at Moral Reasoning?

arXiv:2606.11635v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: For highly capable AI systems to operate safely in dynamic, open-ended environments, they must be able to identify, understand, and respond to moral reasons for action, and constrain their behaviour accordingly. A growing body of research aims to evaluate this capacity – moral competence – in today's most capable AI systems, recently reaching broadly pessimistic conclusions. One of the most ambitious such papers collects gold-standard human-authored rubrics for evaluating moral reasoning in 1,000 cases, and benchmarks frontier AI models against those rubrics, with underwhelming results. In this paper, we argue that the MoReBench dataset can be redeployed to give a much more optimistic picture of LLMs' moral reasoning (an essential part of moral competence). We show that if, instead of scoring LLMs' responses to these cases against these rubrics, we instead give the LLMs the same task given to humans – to generate scoring rubrics for the moral analysis of particular cases – the rubrics they generate are both better calibrated to the human rubrics than their open-ended responses, and, where they differ, plausibly reflect nothing more than the vast dimensionality of most moral problems, as well as highlighting some human departures from the "rubric for creating rubrics". Taking these points into consideration, the MoReBench dataset suggests that LLMs are significantly more capable at moral reasoning than was previously believed.

23.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Visualizing Uncertainty: Spatial Maps of Missing and Conflicting Evidence in Deep Learning

arXiv:2606.15767v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Understanding when and why deep neural networks are uncertain is crucial for deploying reliable machine learning systems in safety-critical domains. While existing uncertainty quantification methods provide scalar measures of model confidence, they offer limited insight into which spatial regions of an input contribute to different types of uncertainty. We propose a novel visualization framework, Uncertainty Activation Map (UAM), that combines Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) with Full-Gradient Class Activation Mapping (FullGrad) to generate interpretable spatial uncertainty activation maps. Our approach distinguishes between two fundamental types of uncertainty: vacuity, representing lack of evidence, and dissonance, capturing conflicting evidence between competing hypotheses. By leveraging the complete gradient decomposition property of FullGrad and the principled uncertainty quantification of Subjective Logic, our method produces theoretically grounded visualizations that highlight specific image regions responsible for model uncertainty. With this framework, vacuity and dissonance activation maps are generated by computing belief-weighted attributions, enabling identification of where models lack knowledge versus where they encounter ambiguous evidence. Extensive evaluations across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively addresses the critical gap between uncertainty quantification and explainability, providing intuitive visual feedback to assess model reliability in complex visual recognition tasks.

24.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

From Memorization to Creation: Evaluating the Cognitive Depth of LLM-Generated Educational Questions

arXiv:2606.18257v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While LLMs show promise in automating educational content creation, their ability to generate questions that stimulate higher-order thinking remains understudied. This work evaluates six widely-used LLMs through a Bloom's Taxonomy lens, focusing on their capacity to transcend rote memorization and achieve cognitive leaps. Using a hybrid human–AI evaluation protocol, we generate and analyze 20{,}700 questions across computer science, K–12 math, and social-science domains. Key contributions include: (1) a fine-grained prompting strategy that reduces question repetitiveness by 24.45\% for Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, and increases the proportion of higher-order cognitive level outputs by 11.53\% for InternLM3-8B-Instruct; (2) quantitative metrics for cognitive shift intensity (CogShift) and category drift, revealing InternLM3's superior performance in multi-level transitions; (3) an interpretability analysis revealing metric-level correlations that enhance the transparency of Chain-of-Thought prompting. Our findings highlight the importance of cognitive-aware prompt design and provide benchmarks for deploying LLMs in personalized learning systems.

25.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-17

Perceptual compensation for tonal context in self-supervised speech models

This study examines the extent to which the wav2vec2.0 architecture exhibits evidence of compensation for phonological context. We conducted a pseudo-replication of a perceptional compensation experiment on Mandarin Chinese tones, and compared the embedding similarities and probing classifier outputs between a purely self-supervised pre-trained model and a model fine-tuned for Mandarin ASR. No evidence of compensation was found in the embedding similarities of the purely pre-trained model. Probing classifiers showed some evidence of compensation in addition to the expected layer-wise improvements in categorization, but failed to replicate human performance on isolated test syllables. Our findings contrast with previous reports of sensitivity to phonological structure emerging through pre-training alone, and suggest that supervised objectives may be necessary to encourage the abstraction of at least some types of phonological regularities.