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01.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-19

FAPO: Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization of Multi-Step LLM Pipelines

arXiv:2606.19605v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-step LLM pipelines fail through interactions among retrieval, reasoning, and formatting steps, so prompt-only optimization can miss bottlenecks in the chain. We present FAPO (Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization), a framework that lets Claude Code optimize an LLM pipeline inside a standardized codebase. FAPO evaluates a pipeline, inspects intermediate steps, diagnoses failures, proposes scoped changes, and validates variants repeatedly to optimize against a score function. It first tries prompt edits and, only when prompt optimization appears insufficient, changes chain structure within the permitted scope when attribution identifies a structural bottleneck. Across six benchmarks and three task models, FAPO beats the baseline GEPA in 15 of 18 model-benchmark comparisons. In 11 model-benchmark comparisons, FAPO wins with non-overlapping mean $\pm$ trial-standard-deviation ranges, and the mean FAPO-GEPA gain is +14.1 pp. In the six HoVer and IFBench comparisons where prompt-first search escalated to structural changes, FAPO wins all six with a mean gain of +33.8 pp. FAPO also improves performance on security tasks: on CTIBench-RCM, a security CVE-to-CWE task, prompt-only FAPO lifts test accuracy by +4.0 pp on GPT-5, +7.1 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Instruct, and +2.0 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Reasoning. These results position FAPO as a state-of-the-art pipeline optimization technique for both general-purpose and security-focused tasks.

02.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-19

When Calibration Fails the Vulnerable Hospital: Federated Conformal Risk Control via Risk-Curve Shrinkage

arXiv:2606.20115v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees on segmentation quality by calibrating a prediction-set threshold on held-out data. In federated deployments, the standard approach pools calibration scores across sites into a single threshold. We provide the first quantification, on real multi-institutional brain tumor data (FeTS-2022, 1,251 subjects, 20 institutions), showing that this naive pooled CRC protects the average hospital but violates coverage at 40% of individual institutions, with the worst site exceeding the target false-negative rate by 7.8 percentage points. The naive alternative, per-site local CRC, largely restores coverage but inflates prediction sets by 83x, rendering them clinically useless. We propose a shrinkage-based federated CRC protocol: each site transmits only its empirical risk curve (G scalars) to a server, which computes a shrinkage-regularized threshold per site. A single hyperparameter n0 smoothly trades worst-case coverage for prediction-set efficiency; leave-one-site-out sensitivity analysis identifies n0=19, achieving 2.7/20 violations at 2.0x stretch. We further show that direct Lagrangian optimization of coverage budgets fails, concentrating risk on vulnerable hospitals, and that the finite-sample correction term is essential: removing it triples violations. The marginal CRC guarantee is preserved by construction under the stated site-mixture assumption; per-site coverage is validated across four targets with three seeds. No patient-level images, masks, or per-volume scores leave any site.

03.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-11

Dissecting the functional landscape of rare diseases through genomic variation in a heterogeneous cohort of 11,000 patients

Rare diseases (RDs) remain a major diagnostic challenge. Genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity, incomplete knowledge of disease mechanisms, and limitations in variant clinical interpretation leave many patients without a molecular diagnosis. Meanwhile, the growing volume of genomic data generated in clinical practice offers an opportunity to develop data-driven methodologies for exploring disease mechanisms and improving the reanalysis of unsolved cases. We aggregated real-world genomic data from 11,084 unrelated patients with suspected RD. Patients were clinically classified into 122 diseases. We built a multi-disease genomic variant frequency database (FJD-DB), which enabled the development of variant and gene-disease association scores by means of case-control subcohort comparisons across 32 disease groups. Functional enrichment analyses were then used to highlight disease-associated protein domains, pathways, biological processes, and phenotypes. Finally, the resulting knowledge was integrated into a data-driven framework for the guided reanalysis of unsolved RD patients applied to Inherited Retinal Dystrophies (IRD) patients as first use case. FJD-DB contained more than 45 million unique variants, including ~185,000 potentially pathogenic variants. Disease-specific analyses identified disease-associated pathogenic variants and highlighted both established and candidate disease genes. We detected 179 significantly enriched protein domains across 23 diseases, 124 Human Phenotype Ontology terms across 13 diseases, 79 Reactome pathways across 10 diseases, and 72 Gene Ontology biological processes across 8 diseases, revealing highly disease-specific functional signatures. Integration of disease-specific variant, gene, and functional association signals enabled the development of a data-driven framework for guided reanalysis of unsolved RD cases. Applied to more than 1,100 unsolved IRD cases, the framework generated clinically relevant findings in 26 patients, including four molecular diagnoses, seven candidate diagnoses, and 15 cases upgraded from non-informative findings to variants of uncertain significance. Aggregated real-world genomic data can be leveraged to identify disease-associated molecular signals generating novel biological hypotheses. A unified analytical framework provides a scalable strategy for knowledge discovery and guided reanalysis, facilitating the identification of overlooked and potentially novel genetic causes of RDs.

04.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Actionable Activation Directions for Detecting and Mitigating Emergent Misalignment Across Language Model Families

Fine-tuning language models on insecure code induces emergent misalignment with poorly understood internal structure. We investigate whether this misalignment corresponds to a causally actionable activation-space direction shared across architectures. Across four instruction-tuned model families (Qwen2.5-1.5B, Gemma-2-2B, Llama-3.2-1B, Ministral-3-3B) finetuned identically, a difference-in-means direction achieves 99.6% separation of aligned and misaligned activations at each model's final layer. Causal steering by subtracting this direction reduces code spillover by 21-51 points, while a secure-code control confirms content specificity. Cross-architecture transfer via ridge regression maps yields large behavioral suppression (up to 46 points) but fails specificity controls as random and orthogonal directions perform comparably. We identify a two-tier specificity structure: within-model directions are causally specific and actionable; cross-model directions are causally real but non-specific. An asymmetric transfer topology emerges, with Gemma and Qwen acting as geometric donors and Llama as a receiver. These findings define the limits of linear cross-architecture correction and recommend within-model probing for auditing.

05.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

What Type of Inference is Active Inference?

arXiv:2606.04935v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Active inference casts decision-making as inference, with the Expected Free Energy (EFE) unifying goal-directed and information-seeking behavior. Recent work showed that EFE minimization can be written as Variational Free Energy (VFE) minimization on a generative model augmented with epistemic priors. We prove that the VFE of the augmented model can be rewritten as the VFE of the predictive model plus explicit entropy-correction terms, making the EFE contribution transparent. We then show that proper EFE-based planning requires combining these epistemic corrections with a planning correction that turns marginal inference into policy optimization, yielding a full variational characterization of EFE-based planning. This clarifies which corrections are needed for cross-entropy planning and for full EFE-based planning. The same entropy-corrected formulation leads to a detailed message-passing scheme for EFE-based planning together with simpler ablations. Experiments on three grid-world environments show that full EFE-based planning outperforms ablations that omit either the planning correction or the epistemic corrections.

06.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Topological Codes Based on Space Groups

arXiv:2606.20548v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Topological codes form one of the most important classes of stabilizer codes. Most existing algebraic constructions and analyses of topological codes assume translation invariance. Here we show that topological codes can arise in more general settings by incorporating point group operations. The central construction is a class of Calderbank-Shor-Steane (CSS) codes called space-group codes, whose check operators are built from group-algebra templates over space groups that combine translations with point-group operations. We develop methods for analyzing topological properties of space-group codes using ring-modules and their invariant theory. At first glance, space-group codes might appear to complicate practical implementation; however, we find that they can exhibit greater locality than previous codes based purely on translations. Our framework thus extends the landscape of topological codes and opens up a broader design space for the co-design of topological codes with quantum computing platforms.

07.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606.18049v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information. Specifically, guidance is needed on how current conditions must be modified to shift from a predicted outcome to a desired future scenario. Counterfactual explanations provide a natural framework for this task, as they represent minimal input changes that alter the model's prediction, indicating when and how intervention is required. Existing approaches rely on instance-wise optimization, leading to inconsistency across instances, high computational costs, and limited applicability in real-time settings. To address these limitations, we reformulate counterfactual generation for time series forecasting as the problem of learning a globally consistent intervention strategy, allowing counterfactuals to be generated through a single shared function. We propose Counterfactual Time Series Explanations (ConTex), a model-agnostic, decomposed architecture comprising a temporal context encoder and a conditional encoder, followed by two heads that capture interventions in terms of temporal relevance and modification strength. This structure overcomes the instability and inconsistency of instance-based approaches by producing targeted, interpretable interventions across time and feature dimensions in a single forward pass, making it suitable for real-time applications. Across multiple forecasting architectures and benchmark datasets, ConTex achieves state-of-the-art validity while generating sparse counterfactuals that minimize the number of necessary interventions. Additionally, our approach reduces computational cost by at least 12-36x compared to instance-wise generation and supports real-time inference at approximately 0.007 seconds.

08.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-15

Artificial Intelligence-Based Detection of Airway Mucus Plugs on CT and Associations With Clinical Outcomes in COPDGene

RATIONALE: Airway mucus plugging is a clinically relevant manifestation of airway pathology in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and is associated with increased mortality even in early disease; however, visual computed tomography (CT) assessment is subjective and labor intensive. OBJECTIVES: To develop an AI-based quantitative CT method for automated detection of airway mucus plugging and evaluate associations with physiologic impairment and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Inspiratory CT scans from 8,971 COPDGene Phase 1 (GOLD 0-4 and PRISm) participants were analyzed. An AI-based framework combining 3D airway segmentation discontinuities and convolutional neural network classification identified mucus plug obstructions, yielding mucus plug burden (total plug count). Associations with outcomes were evaluated using covariate-adjusted models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS : Higher mucus plug burden was associated with lower post-bronchodilator FEV % predicted ({rho} = -0.41; P < 0.001), greater air trapping (LAA < -856 HU; {rho} = 0.33; P < 0.001), worse health status (SGRQ; {rho} = 0.31; P < 0.001), and shorter 6-minute walk distance ({rho} = -0.26; P < 0.001). Among GOLD 1-4 participants, mucus plug presence was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28; P < 0.005) and exacerbation frequency (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.32; P < 0.005). Plug presence was also associated with increased respiratory mortality across GOLD categories and cardiovascular mortality in GOLD 1-2. CONCLUSIONS: AI-based quantitative CT assessment of airway mucus plugging provides a scalable, reproducible measure associated with physiologic impairment and adverse outcomes in COPD, supporting its role in risk stratification and future therapeutic studies.

09.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-19

OTCHA: Optimal Transport-driven Confidence-aware Latent Hub Alignment for Multi-View Medical Image Classification

Multi-view imaging, such as mammography and chest radiography, is a standard component of clinical practice. However, medical images are often unregistered and contain view-specific artifacts or irrelevant background cues that can obscure diagnostically relevant findings. Many existing methods directly fuse per-view representations, allowing such irrelevant content to contaminate the fused embedding and reducing robustness under varying view configurations. We propose OTCHA, a confidence-aware latent hub token alignment module based on optimal transport (OT) that refines patch tokens before fusion for multi-view classification. OTCHA introduces a set of learnable latent hub tokens shared across views. For each view, we compute an OT plan between patch tokens and hub tokens that jointly considers feature similarity and geometry, and augment the OT formulation with token-conditional dustbins to enable partial matching and discard irrelevant tokens. The resulting transport plan provides token-wise matching confidence, which gates hub-mediated message passing and weights a novel optimal-transport-based representation alignment loss to stabilize refinement. Experiments on three multi-view medical image datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over competing baselines across diverse anatomies and view configurations. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/OTCHA.

10.
Nature (Science) 2026-06-08

Fifty years since a simple equation described the chaos of biology

An exploration of chaos theory in population dynamics showed that unpredictable systems can often be modelled using surprisingly simple mathematics. An exploration of chaos theory in population dynamics showed that unpredictable systems can often be modelled using surprisingly simple mathematics.

11.
arXiv (quant-ph) 2026-06-19

Approximating optimal decoding of quantum LDPC codes with narrow frontiers

arXiv:2606.20513v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce the Frontier decoder, a pruned dynamic-programming decoder for sparse quantum decoding problems. Frontier processes error variables in a chosen order, merges prefixes with the same residual syndrome and logical label, and approximates logical-coset posterior masses by retaining only a narrow scored frontier. Without pruning, the recursion is exact ordered inference with exponential complexity. In the code-capacity setting, the decoder reaches thresholds close to optimal for the surface code and the color code. In the circuit-level noise model, it achieves state-of-the-art performance with a very small average retained list size: less than 100 for the gross code $[[144,12,12]]$ at a physical error rate of $0.001$. When the list size is constant, the decoder has linear complexity, suggesting the possibility of low-latency implementations.

12.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Entity Labels Are Not Entity Signals: A Framework for Observable Relevance in Document Re-Ranking

Entity-aware document retrieval uses query-associated entities as ranking signals, assuming that semantically relevant entities are also useful retrieval signals. We show this assumption is insufficient- and explain why. Unlike terms, which are ground-truth observations, entity links are hypotheses produced by an imperfect linker: an entity can be topically central yet provide no discriminative signal if the linker fires indiscriminately across relevant and non-relevant documents. We formalize this as a distinction between Conceptual Entity Relevance (CER)- whether an entity is topically related to a query- and Observable Entity Relevance (OER)- whether its observed presence in a collection discriminates relevant from non-relevant documents. Across four collections and annotation sources including human entity judgments, CER and OER exhibit near-chance agreement ($\kappa \approx 0$), while OER operationalizations agree substantially ($\kappa \approx 0.5$), confirming CER as the systematic outlier. CER-based supervision selects topically plausible but weakly discriminative entities, pruning fewer than 4% of non-relevant documents on some collections. Aligning supervision with OER improves non-relevant pruning by up to 10x and open-world MAP by 0.051 over BM25. Our findings motivate a shift from conceptual to observable notions of entity relevance in entity-aware retrieval.

13.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-17

MGUP: A Momentum-Gradient Alignment Update Policy for Stochastic Optimization

arXiv:2606.17526v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Efficient optimization is essential for training large language models. Although intra-layer selective updates have been explored, a general mechanism that enables fine-grained control while ensuring convergence guarantees is still lacking. To bridge this gap, we propose MGUP, a novel mechanism for selective updates. MGUP augments standard momentum-based optimizers by applying larger step-sizes to a selected fixed proportion of parameters in each iteration, while applying smaller, non-zero step-sizes to the rest. As a nearly {plug-and-play} module, MGUP seamlessly integrates with optimizers such as AdamW, Lion, and Muon. This yields powerful variants such as MGUP-AdamW, MGUP-Lion, and MGUP-Muon. Under standard assumptions, we provide theoretical convergence guarantees for MGUP-AdamW (without weight decay) in stochastic optimization. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks, including MAE pretraining, LLM pretraining, and downstream fine-tuning, demonstrate that our MGUP-enhanced optimizers achieve superior or more stable performance compared to their original base optimizers. We offer a principled, versatile, and theoretically grounded strategy for efficient intra-layer selective updates, accelerating and stabilizing the training of large-scale models. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/MaeChd/MGUP.

14.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-19

Omnilingual SONAR: Cross-Lingual and Cross-Modal Sentence Embeddings Bridging Massively Multilingual Text and Speech

Cross-lingual sentence encoders typically cover only a few hundred languages and often trade downstream quality for stronger alignment, limiting their adoption. We introduce OmniSONAR, a new family of omnilingual, cross-lingual and cross-modal sentence embedding models that natively embed text, speech, code, and mathematical expressions in a single semantic space, while delivering state-of-the-art downstream performance at the scale of thousands of languages, from high-resource to extremely low-resource varieties. To reach this scale without representation collapse, we use progressive training. We first learn a strong foundational space for 200 languages with an LLM-initialized encoder-decoder, combining token-level decoding with a novel split-softmax contrastive loss and synthetic hard negatives. Building on this foundation, we expand to several thousands language varieties via a two-stage teacher-student encoder distillation framework. Finally, we demonstrate the cross-modal extensibility of this space by seamlessly mapping 177 spoken languages into it. OmniSONAR halves cross-lingual similarity search error on the 200-language FLORES dataset and reduces error by a factor of 15 on the 1,560-language BIBLE benchmark. It also enables strong translation, outperforming NLLB-3B on multilingual benchmarks and exceeding prior models (including much larger LLMs) by 15 chrF++ points on 1,560 languages into English BIBLE translation. OmniSONAR also performs strongly on MTEB and XLCoST. For speech, OmniSONAR achieves a 43% lower similarity-search error and reaches 97% of SeamlessM4T speech-to-text quality, despite being zero-shot for translation (trained only on ASR data). Finally, by training an encoder-decoder LM, Spectrum, exclusively on English text processing OmniSONAR embedding sequences, we unlock high-performance transfer to thousands of languages and speech for complex downstream tasks.

15.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

A Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network Framework for Multi-Horizon Stroke Mortality Prediction

Background: Machine learning models for stroke mortality prediction typically treat each time horizon independently and use flat tabular features that ignore the relational structure of electronic health records (EHRs). In this pilot study, we leveraged graph-based machine learning models to predict post stroke all-cause-mortality across three different time horizons. Methods: We developed Stroke Temporal Heterogeneous Graph (StrokeTHG), a heterogeneous graph neural network model for simultaneous multi-horizon stroke mortality prediction (30-day, 90-day, 1-year) using EHR data from Penn State Health System. The model encodes various relations among EHR entities (e.g., patient, diagnosis, comorbidity) and temporal encoding of admission time to better predict stroke mortality. We compared our proposed approach against various baseline methods, including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost. We also performed ablation and subgroup analyses, evaluated the quality of learned graph embeddings, and assessed the importance of different edge types in the graph. Results: We included 4,144 stroke patients (mean age 69.2 years; 54.3% men), of whom 3,332 (80.4%) survived their stroke after one year. 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality rates were 9.7%, 13.7%, and 19.6%, respectively. Our proposed approach, StrokeTHG, achieved AUROC of 0.872, 0.878, and 0.837 across horizons, outperforming all tabular baselines. At [&ge;] , 75% specificity, the model identified 5-10 percentage points more mortality cases than the best baseline at each horizon. Subgroup analysis demonstrated consistent performance across sex subgroups and the largest discriminative gains in the Age 65-80 stratum. Edge-type ablation identified phenotype-patient and admission-patient edges in the constructed EHR graph as the most influential relational edges for mortality prediction. StrokeTHG embeddings outperformed all graph and matrix factorization baselines under an identical downstream classifier, confirming that performance gains stem from representation quality rather than classifier capacity. Conclusions: StrokeTHG demonstrates that heterogeneous graph representations of EHR data provide a consistent improvement over flat tabular models for multi-horizon stroke mortality prediction, with particular advantage at clinically actionable sensitivity thresholds and novel multi-horizon monotonic prediction capability. This methodological framework may be adaptable to other EHR-based clinical research studies seeking to leverage heterogeneous relational structures for predictive modeling.

16.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-17

Curiosity-Critic: Cumulative Prediction Error Improvement as a Tractable Intrinsic Reward for World Model Training

arXiv:2604.18701v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Local prediction-error-based curiosity rewards focus on the current transition without considering the world model's cumulative prediction error across all visited transitions. We introduce Curiosity-Critic, which grounds its intrinsic reward in the improvement of this cumulative objective, and show that it admits a tractable per-step surrogate: the difference between the current prediction error and the asymptotic error baseline of the current state transition. We estimate this error baseline online with a learned critic co-trained alongside the world model; since the critic only has to learn how hard a transition is to predict, its estimate of the irreducible noise floor converges well before the world model saturates, redirecting exploration toward learnable transitions. The reward is higher for learnable transitions and collapses toward zero for stochastic ones, thereby separating epistemic (reducible) from aleatoric (irreducible) prediction error online. Prior prediction-error curiosity formulations, from Schmidhuber (1991) to learned-feature-space variants, emerge as special cases corresponding to specific approximations of this error baseline. Experiments on a stochastic grid world show that Curiosity-Critic outperforms prediction-error, visitation-count, and Random Network Distillation methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.

17.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-18

Scaling Learning-based AEB with Massive Unlabeled Data

arXiv:2606.18864v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper studies how to scale learning-based automatic emergency braking (AEB) with massive unlabeled fleet data under production constraints. Our approach is based on meta-feedback semi-supervised learning (MF-SSL), where a teacher generates pseudo labels for unlabeled driving data and is updated using a small labeled anchor set as safety-critical feedback. In production, anchor ambiguity and labeled-unlabeled mismatch can amplify systematic pseudo-label errors, leading to spurious triggers. We propose a stabilized MF-SSL framework with (i) Noise-Aware Decoupling, which removes ambiguity-prone anchors from the teacher's supervised update path, and (ii) kinematics-gated pseudo-labeling with a teacher conflict penalty to suppress mismatch-induced risk hallucinations on unlabeled data while maintaining broad coverage. Extensive experiments show consistent gains as unlabeled data scale from 1M to 1B windows, improving safety while keeping comfort stable. The 1B-trained student model is deployed to hundreds of thousands of vehicles and validated over \$10^9$ km of driving, achieving a positive-to-false activation ratio exceeding 100:1 and a 35% improvement in accident-free driving mileage over a production rule-only baseline.

18.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-16

Why Low-Precision Transformer Training Fails: An Analysis on Flash Attention

arXiv:2510.04212v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The pursuit of computational efficiency has driven the adoption of low-precision formats for training transformer models. However, this progress is often hindered by notorious training instabilities. This paper provides the first mechanistic explanation for a long-standing and unresolved failure case where training with flash attention in low-precision settings leads to catastrophic loss explosion. Our in-depth analysis reveals that the failure is not a random artifact but caused by two intertwined phenomena: the emergence of similar low-rank representations within the attention mechanism and the compounding effect of biased rounding errors inherent in low-precision arithmetic. We demonstrate how these factors create a vicious cycle of error accumulation that corrupts weight updates, ultimately derailing the training dynamics. To validate our findings, we introduce a minimal modification to the flash attention that mitigates the bias in rounding errors. This simple change stabilizes the training process, confirming our analysis and offering a practical solution to this persistent problem. Code is available at https://github.com/ucker/why-low-precision-training-fails.

19.
medRxiv (Medicine) 2026-06-10

Optimisation of steatotic liver disease screening algorithm for resource-poor settings using machine learning

Background The European Association for the Study of the Liver (ESAL) - Steatotic Liver Disease (SLD) screening algorithm involves two steps; initial screening with FIB-4 followed by referral for vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in patients likely to have significant fibrosis (SF). However, VCTE is not widely available in resource-limited settings. Aim To optimise the EASL SLD screening algorithm for resource-poor settings using machine learning (ML). Methods We analysed data from 964 adults aged [&ge;]35 years who underwent VCTE at a tertiary referral centre in Sri Lanka between November 2024 and 2025. Multiple ML models using different methods and variable combinations were trained on 80% of the dataset and tested on the remaining 20%. Best models were selected based on performance and externally validated using data from 430 patients who underwent VCTE before November 2024. Model performance was compared with the FIB-4 using confusion matrices. Results A Random Forest model incorporating age, AST, ALT, and platelet count separately, rather than using FIB-4, outperformed. The all-variable ML model showed the best predictive performance for SF, with accuracy of 77.2%, recall of 0.762, precision of 0.778, and AUC-ROC of 0.818. The variables used in the model, in descending order of feature importance, were AST, platelet count, BMI, ALT, age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, sex, family history, hypothyroidism, diabetes complication and smoking. External validation demonstrated 75.1% accuracy and an AUC of 0.779. When used as the first step of the SLD screening algorithm, the all-variable ML model identified 37 (17.1%) additional true positives and reduced false-negative diagnoses by 50% compared with FIB-4. Conclusions ML-based models were more effective than the FIB-4 score as the first-line screening tool for VCTE referral, substantially improving the identification of patients with significant fibrosis in this South Asian cohort.

20.
arXiv (CS.CL) 2026-06-16

Follow the Latent Roadmap: Navigating Revocable Decoding for Diffusion LLMs with Anchor Tokens

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) offer a promising avenue for parallel generation but face a trade-off between decoding speed and quality. While revocable decoding strategies attempt to mitigate errors by verifying and remasking tokens, they typically operate within a mixed-quality context. This leads to two critical failures: Error Propagation, where new tokens absorb toxic information from erroneous context, and Local Error Reinforcement, where errors mutually reinforce each other to evade detection. To alleviate these challenges, we propose ASRD (Anchor Supervised Revocable Decoding), a training-free framework that operates within the embedding space. ASRD explicitly decouples the decoding context into trusted Anchor Tokens, which are identified via temporal consistency, and uncertain candidates. Leveraging a dynamic Anchor Tokens Cache, we introduce two complementary mechanisms: (1) Anchor-Guided Generation, which injects entropy-weighted anchor signals into masked positions to implicitly rectify attention toward the reliable global skeleton; and (2) Anchor-Perturbed Verification, which applies orthogonal perturbations to uncertain candidate tokens, destabilizing and remasking errors driven by fragile local consensus. Extensive experiments on math and coding benchmarks demonstrate that ASRD outperforms recent remasking baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 6.4\% while accelerating inference throughput by up to 7.2$\times$.

21.
arXiv (CS.AI) 2026-06-12

Meta-Learning Transformers to Improve In-Context Generalization

arXiv:2507.05019v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In-context learning enables transformer models to generalize to new tasks based solely on input prompts, without any need for weight updates. However, existing training paradigms typically rely on large, unstructured datasets that are costly to store, difficult to evaluate for quality and balance, and pose privacy and ethical concerns due to the inclusion of sensitive information. Motivated by these limitations and risks, we propose an alternative training strategy where we leverage a collection of multiple, small-scale, and domain-specific datasets. We empirically demonstrate that the increased quality and diversity of such data improve the generalization abilities of in-context learners beyond their training domain, while achieving comparable performance with models trained on a single large-scale dataset. We investigate this paradigm by leveraging meta-learning to train an in-context learner on the Meta-Album collection under several settings. Firstly, we show the performance in a controlled environment, where the test domain is completely excluded from the training knowledge. Secondly, we explore the robustness of these models to forgetting in a continual scenario where the information is accessible for a limited time. Finally, we explore the more challenging unsupervised scenario. Our findings demonstrate that transformers still generalize for in-context prediction when trained on a curated dataset collection while offering advantages in modularity and replaceability.

22.
arXiv (CS.CV) 2026-06-15

S$^2$COPE: Self-Supervised Concept Discovery via Preference Learning

Current representation learning paradigms force a fundamental compromise: self-supervised methods scale to massive datasets but yield opaque features, whereas interpretable models remain bottlenecked by the need for dense human annotation. We introduce Self-Supervised Concept discOvery via Preference lEarning (\model), a label-free framework that resolves this dilemma. Instead of treating Vision-Large-Language Models (VLLMs) as static feature extractors, \model leverages them as active participants in a self-supervised preference optimization loop. By autonomously hypothesizing, validating, and reinforcing candidate visual attributes directly from raw imagery, our framework discovers novel, structured concepts without a single label. Extensive experiments across natural, medical, and physics domains demonstrate that \model successfully extracts domain-specific concepts where standard VLLMs often fail to generate. By amortizing concept discovery directly into the VLLM backbone through our self-supervised preference objective – rather than relying on static generation and disjoint filtering – we achieve up to a 24-point absolute improvement in downstream top-1 classification accuracy on unseen data. Our work suggest that interpretability can emerge through a model's autonomous interaction with incidental visual structures, without any human supervision.

23.
arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-18

Fair Online Resource Allocation

arXiv:2606.18679v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of fair online resource allocation, motivated by applications such as refugee resettlement and airline scheduling, where agents arrive sequentially and must be assigned to facilities with limited capacities. We introduce a model that maximizes the overall welfare subject to resource constraints and a Lipschitz fairness requirement, which ensures that similar agents arriving in the same batch receive similar expected outcomes. We first analyze the offline problem, proving that the value of the optimal fair allocation is at least an $\Omega(1/\gamma)$ fraction of the optimal unfair allocation, where $\gamma$ is the fairness coefficient, thereby bounding the price of fairness. For the online setting, we propose an algorithm based on dual mirror descent that enforces fairness constraints within batches while estimating optimal dual variables. We prove that this algorithm achieves sublinear regret relative to the optimal offline fluid benchmark. Finally, we validate our theoretical results using real-world data from the Refugee Economies Programme, demonstrating the algorithm's performance and examining the trade-offs between welfare maximization and fairness enforcement.

24.
PLOS Medicine 2026-06-04

Comparative impacts and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis systematic screening strategies in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru: A mathematical modeling study

作者:

by Yiran E. Liu, José Victor Bortolotto Bampi, Ronan F. Arthur, Argita D. Salindri, Caroline Busatto, Pedro Avedillo Jiménez, Daniele Maria Pelissari, Fernanda Dockhorn Costa Johansen, Robert Arana-Narvaez, Alvaro Fernando Moreno Roca, Wilfredo Santos Solís Tupes, Esther Mori Jiu, Christian Alfredo Moreno Roca, Erika Albertina Abregú Contreras, Valentina Antonieta Alarcón Guizado, Julián Trujillo Trujillo, Belkys Marcelino, Mónica Alonso Gonzalez, Mayra Cecilia Córdova Ayllon, Ted Cohen, Moises A. Huaman, Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert, Julio Croda, Jason R. Andrews Background Incarceration is a leading driver of tuberculosis in Latin America. Systematic screening in prisons may reduce tuberculosis burden, but optimal strategies and cost-effectiveness remain uncertain. We examined the population-wide health impacts and cost-effectiveness of systematic screening in prisons in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, comparing different timepoints, frequencies, and screening algorithms. Methods and findings Using dynamic transmission models calibrated to Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, we simulated annual or biannual (twice-yearly) prison-wide screening, alone or combined with entry and exit screening from 2026 to 2035. We evaluated four algorithms: (1) symptom screening, (2) chest X-ray with computer-aided detection (CXR-CAD), (3) symptoms and CXR-CAD (follow-up testing if either is positive), and (4) GeneXpert Ultra (Xpert) with pooled sputum. Individuals screening positive then received individual Xpert. We projected impacts on within-prison and population-level tuberculosis incidence in 2035, along with discounted costs (2023 US dollars) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Model projections showed that combined entry, exit, and biannual screening with CXR-CAD was highly impactful and cost-effective across countries, reducing tuberculosis incidence by 61%–87% in prisons and 18%–28% population-wide. Compared to only biannual CXR-CAD (the next best strategy), the incremental cost per DALY averted of adding entry and exit screening was $2,984 (Brazil), $2,925 (Colombia), and $645 (Peru). Adding symptom screening to CXR-CAD marginally increased benefit and was only cost-effective in Peru’s higher-incidence prisons. Biannual screening alone remained cost-effective at prison incidence levels well below national averages, as well as at far lower willingness-to-pay thresholds. In settings without CXR-CAD, pooled Xpert was an impactful, cost-effective alternative. Key limitations include the model’s simplified representation of tuberculosis disease states and lack of stratification by age, gender/sex, HIV, or drug resistance. Conclusions These modeling results support immediate national-level adoption of prison-wide tuberculosis screening twice-yearly and at entry and exit, using CXR-CAD or pooled Xpert.

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arXiv (CS.LG) 2026-06-12

Multimodal Graph Negative Learning

arXiv:2606.12863v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multimodal attributed graphs (MAGs) integrate graph topology with heterogeneous modality attributes, such as text and images, thereby enabling richer modeling of complex relational systems. However, such expressiveness also makes learning on MAGs depend on multiple semantic sources, including structural topology, textual and visual attributes, each of which can be regarded as a branch for node representation. Node-level branch semantic imbalance arises when these branches differ across nodes in semantic informativeness and reliability: a branch that provides discriminative semantics for one node may mislead another due to bias in modality quality or structural context. Existing methods often mitigate such heterogeneity through cross-branch agreement or alignment, implicitly treating the dominant prediction as reliable supervision. When the dominant branch is biased, forced imitation may propagate its bias to other branches and suppress original semantics that are useful for classification. We propose GraphMNL, a graph-aware multimodal negative learning framework that addresses this issue by using Negative Learning as cross-branch guidance. Instead of forcing inferior branches to imitate a teacher prediction, the model teaches them which classes a node is unlikely to belong to. GraphMNL builds a branch library, identifies dominant and inferior branches via graph-aware reliability arbitration, gates unstable transfer, and applies target-preserving negative learning over non-target classes. This design decouples target supervision from branch guidance so that supervised losses learn the correct class, while Negative Learning suppresses unlikely alternatives when branch agreement is unreliable. Through the comprehensive experimental evaluation, GraphMNL achieves the best performance on Grocery datasets with 72.47% accuracy and 76.60 F1 score on Reddit M datasets.